march 1, 2012: growing importance of ethnic voters by mark dicamillo, director, the field poll at...

7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training

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Field Research Corporation

The Growing Importance ofEthnic Voters in California Elections

- presented by

Mark DiCamillo

Director, The Field Poll

- to -

New America Media

Ethnic Media Training Session

University of California, Office of the President

March 1, 2012


2/19

1Field Research Corporation

Californias Changing RegisteredVoter Population

During the past 12 years Californias registered voter rolls have increasedby over 1.3 million, all of it coming from the states ethnic voterpopulations.

Over this period, the proportion of Californias registered voters who are

Latino increased from a 16% to 22% share.

Total registered voters 15,707 100% 17,028 100% +1,321,000

White non-Hispanic 11,307 72% 10,900 64% -407,000Latino 2,500 16% 3,800 22% +1,300,000African-American 1,000 6% 950 6% -50,000Asian-American/other 900 6% 1,378 8% +478,000

2000 2012(in 000s) % (in 000s) % Change

*Less than of 1%.

Source: Totals are from the California Secretary of State. All other figures are Field Poll estimates.

Table 1


3/19


Party Registration Differences in California RegisteredVoter Population by Race/Ethnicity

Table 2

Democrats(44%)

Republicans(30%)

Non-partisan/other parties(26%)

Total

Whitenon-Hispanics Latino

African-American

Asian-American

25%

37%

38%

26%

56%

18%

16%

79%

5%

34%

40%

26%

Source: Field Poll estimates.


4/19


Age Differences in California RegisteredVoters by Race/Ethnicity

Table 3

30%

26%

44%

(33%) 18 39

(44%) 40 64

(23%) 65 or older


African-American

Asian-American

9%

50%

41%

24%

27%

49%

17%

36%

47%


Total


5/19


Regional Differences in California RegisteredVoter Population by Race/Ethnicity

Table 4


African-American

Asian-American


(17%) Central Valley

(5%) Other Northern CA

(14%) Other Southern CA

(20%) San Francisco Bay Area

(18%) South Coast

(26%) Los Angeles

Total

7%

20%

22%

18%

19%

14%

3%

40%

12%

15%

15%

15%

2%

34%

20%

15%

12%

17%

4%

24%

27%

15%

20%

10%


6/19


9%

39%

20%

31%

9%

23%

28%

40%

Household Income Differences in CaliforniaRegistered Voter Population by Race/Ethnicity

Table 5

Less than $40,000(30%)

$40,000 - $79,999(28%)

$80,000 or over

(33%)


African-American

Asian-American

Source: Field Poll estimates, 2010.

Not reported(9%)

9%

48%

24%

19%

16%

30%

32%

22%

Total


7/19


2008 Obama D +24 1976 Ford R -2

2004 Kerry D +10 1972 Nixon R -13

2000 Gore D +12 1968 Nixon R -3

1996 Clinton D +13 1964 Johnson D +18

1992 Clinton D +13 1960 Nixon R -0.5

1988 Bush R -4 1956 Eisenhower R -111984 Reagan R -16 1952 Eisenhower R -14

1980 Reagan R -17 1948 Truman D +0.5

The History of Presidential Election Outcomesin California (1948-present)

Table 6

Democratic DemocraticWinner Party Margin Winner Party Margin


8/19


9/19


California Voters Views of the Job Performanceof President Barack Obama by Race/Ethnicity

Table 8

Approve Disapprove

66%

53%

46%

75%

64%

25%

39%

47%

11%

30%Latino

Asian-American

White non-Hispanic

African-American

Race/ethnicity

Total registered voters

Source: February 2012 Field Poll.


10/19


California Voter Inclination to Re-Elect Barack Obamaas President by Race/Ethnicity

Table 9

Inclined Not inclined

62%

51%

41%

83%

67%

28%

41%

52%

16%

23%Latino

Asian-American

White non-Hispanic

African-American

Race/ethnicity




11/19


12/19


13/19


California Voter Views About the NationsHealth Reform Law by Race/Ethnicity

Table 12

55%

52%

46%

70%

65%

35%

37%

44%

23%

20%Latino

Asian-American

White non-Hispanic

African-American

Race/ethnicity


Source: February 2011 Field-TCWF Health Policy Poll for The California Wellness Foundation.

Support Oppose


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Voter Preferences Regarding Possible Statewide BallotInitiatives on Taxes for the November 2012 General Election

1. California Federation of Teachers Millionaires Tax Initiative

Table 13

68%

63%

59%

80%

73%

29%

31%

35%

17%

23%Latino

Asian-American

White non-Hispanic

African-American

Race/ethnicity



Yes No

Inclined to vote


15/19



2. Governor Browns Tax Increase Initiative

Table 14

65%

58%

54%

61%

68%

28%

36%

40%

32%

28%Latino

Asian-American

White non-Hispanic

African-American

Race/ethnicity



Yes No

Inclined to vote


16/19



3. Munger Tax Increase Initiative

Table 15

62%

45%

36%

68%

60%

38%

48%

56%

22%

36%Latino

Asian-American

White non-Hispanic

African-American

Race/ethnicity



Yes No

Inclined to vote


17/19


Table 16

30%

24%

16%

54%

34%

44%

51

59%

26%

44%Latino

Asian-American

White non-Hispanic

African-American

Race/ethnicity


Source: November 2011 Field Poll.

Goes too farStrikes the

right balance

California Voter Opinions about Governor BrownsPublic Pension Reform Proposal by Race/Ethnicity

Doesnt go

far enough

19%

13%

13%

13%

14%


18/19


California Voter Preferences for the Sentencing of SomeoneConvicted of First-Degree Murder by Race/Ethnicity

Table 17

43%

48%

45%

66%

55%

38%

40%

42%

24%

37%Latino

Asian-American

White non-Hispanic

African-American

Race/ethnicity


Source: September 2011 Field Poll.

Life in prisonwithout parole

Deathpenalty


19/19


California Voter Opinions About Allowing Same-Sex Couples to Marry by Race/Ethnicity and Age

Table 18


* Small sample base.

Approve Disapprove

42%

59%

64%

52%

73%

69%

45%

65%

41%

47%

34%

30%

41%

21%

26%

45%

32%

52%

Age 18 39

Age 65+*

White non-Hispanic (total)

Age 40 64

Race/ethnicity by age


Age 18 39

Ethnic voters (total)

Age 40 64

Age 65+

march 1, 2012: growing importance of ethnic voters by mark dicamillo, director, the field poll at...

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