mandarin version : commodities & currencies - weakness on the us dollar continues… 09/08/2010

8/9/2019 Mandarin Version : Commodities & Currencies - Weakness On The US Dollar Continues… 09/08/2010

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mandarin-version-commodities-currencies-weakness-on-the-us-dollar-continues 1/3

of 3

主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （原

油）

♦ 与其回调，美国轻质原油期货期货（US Light Sweet

Crude oil）却在上周扩大涨势至 82.97 美元全周最高点。

然后才在套利活动下，从该高点显著回跌，并于周五收80.70美元。

♦ 在图表上，它累积一根“类似流星线”（shooting star-

like），显示它可能会在本周再度回调。

♦ 但一如前周一样，我们看好原油已冲破 78 美元重要阻力线

和 40周移动平均线（即 77.5美元）的突破走势。

♦ 因此，即使本周出现卖压都好，其压力将不大，除非它弃守40周移动平均线。

♦ 由于 UTL（即 73 美元至 74 美元）出现强稳扶持力，因此

其长期上升趋势依旧稳健。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

♦ 一如所料，原棕油期货（CPO）在过去两周于接近 2,500 令

吉阻力转为支撑水平（resistance-turn-support level）苦

苦挣扎后，便在上周延伸升势。

♦ 上周，原棕油形成一根利多阳烛，并收高于 2,661令吉。

♦ 上周的升势迫使 10 周移动平均线向上转高，这表示假如它能

够持续上升，那么近期至中期展望将会转俏。

♦ 强稳扶持水平料将落在 10 周移动平均线（即 2,440 令吉）

和 2,500令吉关口之间。

♦ 原棕油料将会在近日内试探 1 月的 2,726 令吉高峰，即靠近

2,760令吉阻力线。

♦ 若它能破除 2,760 令吉关卡，其展望将会转为更乐观，而这

将带动它重新挑战 3,000令吉至 3,300令吉之间的区域。

图 1∶轻质原油期货（周线图）

图 2∶原棕油期货（周线图）

技术分析

每周技术观点

原产品和外汇美元的弱势将持续 … 马来

西亚

M A R K E T D

A T E L I N E

P P

7 7 6 7 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 0 ( 0 2 5 3 5 4 )

2010 年 8 月 9 日

RHB ResearchInstitute Sdn BhdA member of theRHB Banking GroupCompany No: 233327 -M

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）



of 3

特定外汇的图表解读：

令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉） / US$（美元）

♦ 陈如所料，令吉兑美元汇率穿破 4 月的 3.16 低点，并在上

周延伸其下降趋势，以 3.1456报收。

♦ 技术而言，该汇率形成一根巨大利淡阴烛，反映出一个悲观的新跌破走势。

♦ 换言之，令吉在破除 3.16 重要水平后，如今它已准备就绪

进一步走强。

♦ 由于动力指标仍向下滑落，因此若买盘能够持续，那么令吉将会迈向 3.07水平前进。

♦ 在图表上，为了让该汇率再次转升，它必须重夺 3.16 支撑

转为阻力水平，然后才能放眼重新挑战 3.29 图表阻力和邻

近 35周移动平均线。

日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元） / US$（美元）

♦ 经过多周在靠近 87 重要支撑水平，即下降趋势阻力线

（DRL）徘徊后，日元兑美元终于在上周穿破 DRL以下。

♦ 在过去 9个交易日来，它已累积了第 7根阴烛，显示短期利

淡趋势看来将会持续。

♦ 虽然随机指标（stochastic oscillators）已触发一个不显眼

的“买入”讯号，以暗示可能会反弹，但疲弱的 14 周强弱

指标（14-week RSI）却冲击了情绪。

♦ 这意味着若日元能够维持在 DRL 以下，那么该货币将会在

近期内走强至 79.8。

♦ 关键图表阻力如今位于 87。

欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元） / US$（美元）

♦ 3 周前，欧元兑美元汇率在 0.77 水平形成一根“十字线”

（doji）。之后，它便在上周继续以第 2根利淡阴烛走低。

♦ 该蜡烛形态和疲软的动力解读，建议本周将会出现跟进利淡动力。

♦ 我们预计欧元兑美元将会进一步走强至 0.73 图表支撑区，

然后才可能发动复苏走势。

♦ 技术而言，该汇率必须重新收复 0.77 关卡和 21 周移动平

均线（即 0.78），以扭转欧元兑美元的当前上升趋势。

图 3∶令吉兑美元（周线图）

图 4∶日元兑美元（周线图）

图 5∶欧元兑美元（周线图）



of 3

美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）

♦ 尽管前周出现一个潜在的“8 至 10 根”蜡烛反转形态，但

美元指数（DXY）还是在上周持续往下趋低。

♦ 其实，该指数已连续形成第 9 根利淡阴烛，同时也跌破 81

重要支撑水平。

♦ 再加上疲弱的动力解读，我们认为，该指数已准备在来周保持疲弱走势。

♦ 虽然有关“8 至 10 根”蜡烛反转形态仍建议会出现反弹，

但除非它有能力在近期重获 81，否则它在本周反弹的机率

极为渺茫。

♦ 反之，我们预料，假如美元继续走软，那么它可能会在近日重新试探 78支撑水平。

IMP ORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Theopinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ orbe contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to beconstrued as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in anymanner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons

may from time to t ime have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectivesof persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluateparticular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment orstrategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents acceptsany liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providinginvestment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHBGroup may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equitysecurities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or otherservices from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflectinformation known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation basedupon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommendedsecurities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for theactions of third parties in this respect.

图 6∶美元指数（周线图）

mandarin version : commodities & currencies - weakness on the us dollar continues… 09/08/2010

Documents