managing shared climate change risks in a … · lake tana flood forecasting system (ethiopia) 2....
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Managing shared climate change risks
in a transboundary river basin,
The Nile Basin Initiative experience(second part, 9th November 2011, Marrakech)
Abdulkarim H Seid
NBI Secretariat
• A joint institution of the 10 Nile Basin States
• Launched on 22 February 1999
• Directed by Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM)
The Nile Basin Initiative
Historical variability of average discharge
3
- High seasonal and inter-annual variability of discharge
- Climate change more variability more extremes
- Storage infrastructure needed for any meaningful utilization of water resources
Scenarios of sub-basin runoff under climate change
4
Wide difference in how the future runoff evolves under climate change- High uncertainty for Tekezze-Atbara, Bahr el Jebel, - Potentially more runoff for Tekezze- Atbara, Bahr el Jebel, - Relatively less uncertainty on projection of runoff
NBI response to climate change challenges
5
Transboundary policies
• The NB Sustainability Framework (NBSF)• Climate Change Strategy• Sub-basin level guidelines for
investment projects• Wetland Strategy • Environmental and Social Policy and
guidelines• The NBI Environmental Flow
Management Strategy• Dam safety framework
Institutions
• Provide platform for TB cooperation • Training and capacity building• Data and Information exchange• Partnership building (IWMI, GWP,
UNEP,LVBC)
Information
• Joint Analytic tools (NB DSS)• Water demand & supply projection • Regional knowledgebase• Basin monitoring:
Evapotranspiration, enhancing basins monitoring infrastructure)
• State of the Basin Report (every 5 years)
• Flood forecasting and warning communication
Infrastructure
• Joint, multi-sector investment planning (sub-basin level): hydropower, irrigation, watershed management
• Climate proofing guides - investments • Capacity building (in climate finance)
Disaster preparedness: strengthening member countries capacity to mitigate flood risks
EN FloodMonitoring Program pilot Areas
1. Lake Tana flood forecasting system (Ethiopia)
2. Blue and Main Nile flood forecasting (Ethiopia
and Sudan)
3. Baro-Akobo-Sobat (BAS) flood forecasting
(Ethiopia and South Sudan)
4. Wadi Al Arish flash flood mapping (Egypt)
Mai
n N
ile
Abay-Blue Nile
Baro-A
kobo-Sobat-White N
ile
Tekeze-Setit-Atbara
40°0'0"E
40°0'0"E
30°0'0"E
30°0'0"E
20°0'0"E
20°0'0"E
30°0
'0"N
30°0
'0"N
20°0
'0"N
20°0
'0"N
10°0
'0"N
10°0
'0"N
0°0'
0"
0°0'
0"
2
4
1
33
Delineation of flood prone areas and setting flood marks (GYR colors)
Main activities: flood forecasting, warning communication and community preparedness support
7
Ethiopia – Sudan Interconnection- Inaugurated in 2013- 100 – 200 MW being traded
Climate change adaption at regional level in the Nile Basin. Examples: Investment in green energy
Increased integration of economies Reduced thermal power costs (Sudan) Reduced GHG from reduced
fossile fuel usage (Sudan) CC mitigation
Increased export revenue (Ethiopia)
Rusumo falls HEP project - Joint project (Burundi,
Rwanda, Tanzania)- Financing secured
Increased integration of economies of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania
Increase electricity access to over 1,100,000 people
Clean energy reduction of GHG emission
Improved joint Basin monitoring
Regional hydromet system for the Nile Basin - Design completed; first regional hydro-
meteorological monitoring system for the Nile Basin
- Improved CC adaptation – one of the objectives of the system
- Real-time data sharing system – part of the design
- First phase implementation to start in 2017
Climate change adaption at regional level in the Nile BasinExamples
after
after
Livelihood centered integrated watershed management
Changes observed
Improved joint river basin planning
Multi-Sector Investment Plans- Multi-country sub-basin wide
water resources plan for NEL- Multi-country, multi-sector
investment strategy for Eastern Nile
Basin/sub-basin as hydrologic unit Optimize resource use taking comparative advantages of countries
Leverage regional cooperation for better adaptation to climate change
Scenario Analysis from 1955 to 2014
Gilo
Alwero
Akobo
pibor
Sudan
EGYPT
KENYA
TANZANIA
BURUNDI
Ethiopia
South Sudan
DRC
RWANDA
Baro Akobo Sobat Sub-Basin
Lake Edward Lake Albert3.41
Lake Albert Sub-Basin
Lake
Tana
Sudd Swam
36.03
40.26
17.893.53
8.94
58.327.9
0.290.05
5.063.30
Machar
2.80
4.64
7.43
3.66
11.76
3.04
3.15
3.37
1.85
0.02
9.194.24
0.010.01
5.334.08
Blue Nile Sub-Basin
KageraNyabarongo
Ruvubu
9.38
0.010.00
0.06
3.91
1.45 7.29
2.1
2.09
Rubare
Semliki
39.41
Mongalla Station
1.81
Victori Nile Sub-Basin
Lake Kyoga
7.935.82
Soroti & Malaba
1.20
0.02
44.97
Yei & Goi
Bahir El Jabel
4.14
1.5
Lake Victoria
Mara & LV East
Cathments
Rubana &
MbalagetiIsanga, Simiyu,
Mamwe & Southern LV Cathments
0.91
0.04
0.01
Nzoia , Yala & Sio4.34
0.16
Nyando,Sondu_Miriu & Awach1.32
0.03
Migori-Kuja
31.73
Lake Victoria Sub-Basin
2.8
0.8
30.47Sobat Baro
12.58White Nile at Malakal
0.85
Bahir El Gezal
0.28
26.23
0.87
0.24 2.050.00
0.6
Gebel Aulia43.97
Blue Nile
at Khartoum
Sennar Dam
39.95
Dindir
3.01
Rehad
1.43
43.04
1.38
2.18
Pumps US Sennar
NW Sennar Rahad I II
Suki
6.61
47.56
Roseires Dam
0.750.06
49.58
Blue Nile At Diem StationBeles
5.83
Dabus
6.58
Didessa
11.43
38.23
0.08
1.19
0.030.04
0.370.24
FInchaa Dam
Amerti Dam
0.29
1.63
19.01
3.33
23.96
Blue Nile
at Kessie
12.53
1.00
2.26
5.21
Lake Tana Tributaries
Merowie Dam1.51
0.03
Blue Nile
Aswan Dam
12.40.00
79.87Nile at Dongola
66.13
5.79
Isna Barrage
Nagaa Hammadi
Barrage
Assute
Barrage
2.41
2.68
5.57
Aswan-Isna Irrigation
Esna-NagaaHammadi
Irrigation
NagaaHammadi-Assute
Irrigation
Assute-Cairo
Irrigation59.16
10.4 East Delta
Irrigations
15.7West Delta
Irrigations
2.88Fayyum
Irrigation
15.55
0.200.02
Tekeze
Dam8.98
Tekeze
0.200.00
Kashim el
Girba
14.37
84.0412.52 Atbara
72.3814.24
Tekeze-Atbara Basin
00.0
1000
1000
0.0
Flow indicators BCM
Selcted Location
Evaporation/Precipitaion
Hydropower
Demand Node
Lake/Wetlands
Reservoir
Legend
GebaTams
Birbir
Gezira
5.36
Ruizi, Katonga&
LV West & North Cathments
0.75
1.01
73.33
1.53
12.72
WN Pump Schemes
Kenana Sugar
Asalaya Sugar
0.11
102115.
14.64.44
0.46
0.68
0.24
0.13
61.21
3.41
8.77
6.23 Greater Cairo
M&I
2.99Uppet Egypt
M&I
Setit
Upper Atbara
0.43
2.77
0.89
1.64
0.63
80.76
0.06
0.15
0.87
0.250.520.66
New Halfa
Jointly developed analytic tools for exploring climate change adaptation options in a regional (TB) context