managing seasonal hydrology with pv and battery storage in

Electricity Supply to Africa and Developing Economies: Challenges and Opportunities

Managing Seasonal Hydrology with PV and Battery Storage in an Asian

Country – Case Study

by Paul Tuson and Jacques de la Bat, Mott MacDonald Africa (Pty) Ltd

Introduction - Case Study

• Description of local conditions• Benchmark BES prices• Daily Load Profiles wet and dry seasons• CoUE Analysis• LCOE Analysis

– Battery on its own– PV on its own– Battery in combination with PV

• Other benefits of PV/BES Solutions• Comparison of LCOEs of different Gx technologies• Findings

2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 2

Description of Local Country

• Landlocked

• Low GDP and access to capital

• Dependent on imports

• Not fully utilising indigenous hydro resources

• Hydro solutions have long lead times

• Dry season - needs to import power 24 hours/day, significant load shedding

• Wet season – needs to import at system peak and load shedding at system peak


Daily Demand – 2018 – Wet Season


Daily Demand – 2018 – Dry Season


0,00

200,00

400,00

600,00

800,00

1000,00

1200,00

1400,00

1600,00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

DEM

AN

D/S

UP

PLY

(MW

)

HOURS IN DAY

Daily Demand/Supply Curve

IPP Generation RoR Generation Peak RoR Storage Import

PV Generation Battery Storage Load Shedding Demand

BES Capital Cost – Lazard Study Version 3.0


BES LCOE – Lazard Study Version 3.0


Benefits of PV/Battery Storage

• As per the LDC’s above, in the dry season, PV and Battery systems result in a direct reduction of load shedding.

• In wet season, the PV displaces imported power and the batteries reduce load shedding at system peak.


CoUE Calculations


• Country GDP = USD21.14bn• Annual energy consumption = 8.8TWh• COUE = GDP/Energy Consumed = USD2.4/kWh• Electricity shed annually = 1 204 000MWh• Annual Cost of load shedding = USD2.89bn

CoUE Savings from PV/BES Solution


Scenario CoUE saving (USD M)

150MW PV and 30MW Battery all year 789

150MW PV and 30MW Battery dry season only 396

30MW Battery all year 132

30MW Battery dry season only 66

Capital cost of battery: $313/kWh to $713/kWh

Capital cost of PV: 800/kW

A 30MW (5 hour) battery only solution costs between $46m and $106m

A 30MW (5 hour) battery and 150MW PV solution costs between $166m and $226m

It can be seen that the PV/Battery solution costs significantly less than the CoUE to the economy


LCOE of PV+BES solution

Scenario Vanadium Flow (USD/kWh)Lithium Ion (USD/kWh)

150MW PV only 0.067 0.067

150MW PV and 30MW Battery with additional 30MW PV charging 0.114 0.101

150MW PV and 30MW Battery with Utility charging 0.116 0.104

30 MW Battery with 30MW PV charging 0.295 0.229

30MW Battery with NEA charging 0.305 0.243


Other Benefits of PV Battery Solution

• India import replacement (self-reliance/security)

• Peak replacement

• Capex deferral

• Local employment

• Diversification of energy supply

• Engineering capacity building

• Self-sufficiency in electricity supply


India Import Replacement

• India tariffs compared with 150MW PV and 30MW BES tariff

• India import tariffs

– 132kV import tariff = USc8.1/kWh



• India tariff currently cheaper by USD1.1m/annum

• India tariffs annual increase trajectory


Utility Tariff Peak Replacement

• Utility tariffs compared with 150MW PV and 30MW BES tariff

– Utility dry season tariff = USc12/kWh

– Utility monsoon season tariff = USc7/kWh

• Utility tariff currently cheaper by USD0.3m/annum

• Utility tariffs have an increase trajectory


Capital Deferral

• Assumption is the deferral of 1 x 50km 132kV line

• Interest on debt deferral benefits:

– 1 year deferral = USD1.7m





Comparison of LCOEs

• Hydro Generation: USc6/kWh

• PV generation: USc6.7/kWh

• Utility tariff: USc7/kWh to USc12/kWh

• Coal Generation: USc10/kWh

• Nuclear Generation: USc10/kWh

• India import tariff: USc8.1/kWh to USc9.4/kWh

• Battery Storage with PV: USc11.4/kWh

• Battery only: USc30/kWh

• Diesel/HFO generation: USc40/kWh


Conclusions

• The Asian country has a typical morning and evening peak demand profile

• Power supply from indigenous hydrology is very seasonal• Large amounts of load shedding takes place annually = 1 204 000

MWh• Load-shedding is costing the Asian country economy

$2.89bn/year• 150MW (30MW/150MWh) BES solutions can save the country

$789bn/year• The cost of a 150MW (30MW (5 hour)) PV/battery solution is less

than the cost of unserved energy displaced• LCOEs of different PV/BES solutions range from USc6.7/kWh to

USc30.5/kWh, however as PV and BES prices continue to drop, the LCOEs will improve


Conclusions

• PV/BES solutions provide other benefits:– System security (reduced reliance on India imports)– Utility peak replacement and related loss savings– Capital deferral– Local employment– Diversification of energy supply– Capacity building of engineering skills in the country– Self-sufficiency in electricity supply

• PV/BES solutions LCOEs begin at USc 11.4/kWh which is higher than current utility or India import electricity solutions however PV/BES prices are dropping and the utility tariffs are not cost-reflective and the utility and import tariffs are increasing annually

• PV/BES solutions have LCOEs significantly lower than back-up diesel generation

• Solar/PV solutions can be installed in under 12 months with min


Thank you


managing seasonal hydrology with pv and battery storage in

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