managing in the 21st century...-geothermal-climate & weather-ultraviolet-solar radiation 21...
TRANSCRIPT
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Managing in the 21st century:Challenges and opportunities
for future leadersPresented by:
Dr. Angelo A. Camillo, Ph.D, MBAAssistant Professor
2005 – 2006 © Angelo A. CamilloDaniels College of Business –
University of Denver, USADo not reprint or disseminate without permission
December [email protected]
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Acknowledgment
• The author wishes to thank all contributors who have participated in the research of this presentation. Careful attention has been paid to list all sources from which the information was obtained however, the author wishes to apologize if unintentionally appropriate credit has not been cited. This presentation has been presented and distributed at no cost to anyone who requested it and without the scope of making profit, but in the spirit of the profession we love: “management education.”Many thanks again.Angelo Camillo
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MANAGING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY:CHALLLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE LEADERS
Presented by: Angelo A. Camillo, Ph.D., MBA
•At The Heidelberger School of Hotel Economics, Heidelberg-Germany-June 17- 2005
•At Samsung Everland Corporate Headquarter, R&D, Food Service and Distribution Division- Seoul – Korea July 15- 2005
•At Universita’ Degli Study del Molise, Facolta’ diEconomia, Campobasso - Italy- December 13-2006
2005-2006 © Angelo Camillo – Updated November 2006
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Hello and welcome! Please allow to introduce myself. Who am I?
• A charismatic leader who is inspired by critical and complex thinking to continuously challenge the status –quo and to contribute to the discovery of knowledge through scientific research. I share the view of copious scientists who argue that “explanation is the ultimate goal of scientific inquiry.” I too, have the responsibility to leave a legacy for which history will decide whether my endeavors made the world a better place than I found it. There is no better reward than the one of standing in a classroom full of students willing to acquire the knowledge I proudly wish to transfer, thus inspiring them to become the best they can just as I once hoped, long before my dream became a reality.
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My research interest
• “Adaptive Leadership”, Challenges and Opportunities for future leaders in the 21st century
• International organization behavior, leadership and strategic management
• International negotiations, business and trade• Competitive advantage• Entrepreneurship• Competitive Innovation
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Research in progress• Camillo, A.A & Connolly, D., Restaurant Viability; Identifying The
Underlying Factors Affecting The Viability of Independent Restaurants. • Camillo, A., Space tourism; exploring the ultimate frontier • Connolly D, Singh A., Camillo A., Preparing tomorrow’s leaders• Camillo, A., Moreo P., Ryan B., Kim W.G.,. “Historical analysis and
trend - forecasting model of restaurant Cuisine.”• Camillo, A., Modeling the critical success factors of culinary tourism in
Italy. • Camillo A., The economics and management of “Ecological,
enological and culinary tourism”• Connolly, D., Camillo A., “Dining with Grace” A guide to proper dining
etiquette for hospitality professionals• Camillo, A., Market share capitalization through product positioning of
consumer perceived quality, authenticity and originality of “Italian Branded” food and beverage goods produced and distributed in the U.S. market: is it opportunistic exploitation or strategic marketing?
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IntroductionEconomically advanced countries have a knowledge-based and/or a service-based economy. This presentation shall serve the purpose of stimulating your thinking about managing and leading contemporary economies and dealing with emerging issues in the twenty-first century. The service industry in particular has been challenged and put to test many times before by both, natural disasters and man-made disasters. “We cannot deal with future changes, instead we must stay ahead of changes 1.” Unless we are compelled to dealing with unpredictable natural disasters such as the Tsunami we must not predict but explore possible and probable futures.
1. Peter Drucker
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The shift toward services in the US
(A) Agriculture:
(G) Goods:
(S) Services:
Source: http://www.nationmaster.comOECD reports; IBM Corporation
actual forecast
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There are many insights how service based companies can succeed and sustain growth in a competitive environment:
Roger Dow,President and CEO, Travel Industry Association of America (T.I.A.A.)
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Partial check list of key to success: • Build a stronger foundation• Make every customer feel special• Have the courage to set bold goals• Simplify, simplify, simplify• Make technology your servant• Measure well, act fast• Unleash the power of people• Lead with care• Think-Stimulate-Provoke-Explore• Innovate – Innovate – Innovate…………
Roger Dow, President and CEO, Travel Industry Association of America (T.I.A.A.)
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The global service industry includes many segments; we will use the hospitality industry as an example
…it is the second largest employer in the world, after any government. It supplies patrons with basic human needs which are essential to our economies: Food, Beverages, and Accommodation. For as long as there will be people, there will be demand for such a supply and services. Therefore, hospitality professionals will always find work.
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You
The remoteEnvironment:
Societies, Government,
Organizations The immediateEnvironment:The People Around you
The World Of the
Service Industry
Are You Ready To Face The Challenges Of The Twenty-first Century?
Possible,Probable
Futures, example:Space
Exploration
Not prediction, but exploration and provocation will lead us toward the future
Source: Wendy L. Schultz, “Infinite Future”
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It is year 2007,
Do you know where you want to be or what
you want to do in 2019?
What are the majorchallenges
and opportunitiesfor the “service based business”
leader of tomorrow?
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Global trends leaders will be concerned with over the next five decades
•Ecological system is being challenged•Oil resource may be depleted by 2040•Water will be scarce•Bio- terrorism scare will increase •Food supply chain is in danger•Solar and wind energy will replace oil•Food irradiation will replace pasteurization•Induction cooking may replace gas•Space – age technology will be the major technological trend in the next 50 years
•Space tourism exploration will change the way we appreciate our planet forever
•A weekend in space is not a dream, but soon to be a reality Source: Hospitality 2010
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Space Tourism:Imagine spending a weekend at hotel in space?
Is it a dream or reality?
• The first inflatable space hotel prototype, Genesis 1 was launched at 6:53 p.m. Moscow time on July 12, 2006
• It is owned by Las Vegas hotel entrepreneur Robert Bigelow
• Genesis 1 will orbit the Earth for a minimum of five years before all data collected can be analyzed
• There are plans to launch Genesis II in the very near future
• The ultimate goal is to have and orbital station that will serve as an orbital college, hotel, and/or science lab.
• A full-size prototype and test is scheduled for 2012, and a commercial space station to be completed in 2015.
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One of many space hotels prototypes, the inflatable space habitat
The Genesis 1 craft lifted off at 6:53 p.m. Moscow time on July 12, 2006 atop a Russian-built rocket. (Source: Bigelow Aerospace)
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• Actual photos of the Russian Dnepr rocket carrying the Bigelow Aerospace pathfinder mission Genesis I from the ISC Kosmotras space and missile complex in the Orenburg
region of Russia. (Source: http://www.bigelowaerospace.com/ )
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Space elevator Prototype(Source: http://www.liftport.com/ )Owner: Nyein [email protected]
The Space Elevator may be The main mean of
TransportationFor the space tourists
in the future
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Renewable energy resources
How can the hospitality industry benefit from these renewable energy processing?- General energy resources- Solar- Biomass- Wind- Geothermal- Climate & Weather- Ultraviolet- Solar Radiation
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Photovoltaic technology (PV) to produce energy
• Mariner 5 is shown in flight. Photovoltaic systems were an important power source for that mission. Solar cells have not only enabled America to explore space, the solar system, and the Earth in great detail, they also have enabled the emergence of the telecommunications industry. (Source: NASA and NSSDC Photo Gallery)
These roof shingles are coated with PV cells made of amorphous silicon.
When installation is complete, the PV shingles look much like ordinary
roofing shingles but they generate electricity.
PV systems use semiconductor materials that convert sunlight directly to electricity.
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Additional Global trends leaders will be concerned with over the next five decades, cont..
•The economy in the developed world will continue to grow until 2010
•Russia’s economy appears to stabilize•China’s economic growth is
averaging 9% yearly•India’s technological economy will sustain growth
Implications: China and India could slow their growth if the infrastructure, state-owned enterprises and banking systems are not reformed.
Source: Hospitality 2010
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Global trends leaders will be concerned with over the next five decades, cont..
• The world population will grow to 9 billion (Miliardi) by 2050
• The population will grow highest in countries that cannot support growth:
1. Palestine 217% (estimate)2. Niger 205% (estimate)3. Yemen 168% (estimate)4. Angola 162% (estimate)5. Congo 161% (Estimate)6. Uganda 133% (Estimate)
Countries that can support growth havenegative birth rate trend. Example: Italyand Germany (ISTAT – 2006) Source: Forecasting International
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Global trends leaders will be concerned with over the next five decades, cont..
Implications:It is estimated that to meet human nutritional needs over the next forty years, global agriculture will have to supply as much food as has been produced in human history. Although we cannot predict what impact these events will have on food production, distribution, and the service industry, the consequences could be severe.
Source: Forecasting International
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Global trends hospitality leaders will be concerned with over the next five decades, cont..
Population in developed world is living longer:•75 years for male and 80 for female
•Global demand for goods and services will increase
•The food service industry will be challenged to meet the increased demand in special dining, geared toward healthy-nutritious diet1
•According to Efsa, (Ufficio Nazionale e SicurezzaAlimentare), Italians are the least obese in Europe; this is due to the traditional Mediterranean diet they consume 2 Source: 1.Center for strategic and international
studies. 2. Coldiretti News; www.coldiretti.it
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Global trends leaders will be concerned with over the next five decades, cont..
How will the tourism industry face future challenges? What will be the impact on related businesses?•International Tourism, vacationing and travel will continue to grow
•The hospitality industry will grow at a rate of at least 5% a year
•People have more disposableincome than ever before
•The Lodging industry will expand to destinations not yet exhausted by tourism
Source: Center for strategic and international studies
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Global trends leaders will be concerned with over the next five decades, cont..
•In the next decade the hospitality industry will employ over 260 million people around the world
• Chinese international travelers will spend over U.S. $100 billion by 2008
• China will be number 1 tourists’destination expecting 130 million travelers by 2020
• 50 millions of Indians will travel overseas by the year 2020
Source: World Travel and Tourism Council
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Global trends leaders will be concerned with over the next five decades, cont..
But:What are the major trend drivers that will shape the
world in the future, and may have a significant impact on the dynamic
growth of the service
industry?
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Major trend drivers that will shape the world in the future and their impact on the service industry:
•Demographic changes•Natural resources and environment•Science and technology•The global economy and globalization
•National and international governance•Future conflicts, religious influence•The role of allied-organized countries, such
as the UN, and the rest of the world, and their political ideology
Source: National Intelligence Council (NIC)
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Possible - Specific trend drivers that will shape the world in the future and their impact on the service industry:§By 2025, a manned mission to Mars; space tourism exploration to distant destinations§By 2030, anti-aging advances let us live from 35-95 as “the same age;”more workforce, healthier and longer productive work life§3-D scanning, faxing, and “printing:” the home fabrication unit. Less dependency and on-demand inventory§Continued global warming, with sea-level rise; tourism may shift from the sea to mountains, or to space §Loss of biodiversity, especially of marine life. Fish and meat supply will be available solely from farm raised sources. Less foodborne diseases
Source: Wendy L. Schultz, “Infinite Future” & Hospitality 2010
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Possible - Specific trend drivers that will shape the world in the future and their impact on the hospitality industry, cont…§24/7/365; no home-office divide – but flexibility: sales and administrative jobs§By 2010, we talk to our computers, they talk
back, and recognize us via biometrics; paying bills at a hotel by use of biometrics§By 2020, micromachines create “smart”
materials; nano-chip restaurant menu translators for hospitality staff §By 2020, people are called “globens” – world
citizens; people may be compelled to be international/global§By 2020, routine, computer language
translation. IT languages will be interchangeable the same as an A/C 120 -240 Volt adapter Source: Wendy L. Schultz, “Infinite Future”
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Major IT considerations future leaders should be concerned about.• It is no longer the question: do we need IT?
Rather, how much IT we need to invest in the overall business infrastructure?
• But then: how do we stay up-to-date with the ever-changing IT supplied? Most innovation is obsolete within months?
• Can we make IT work for us instead of becoming slaves of IT?
• There may be no simple answer in today’s global and competitive landscape
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What’s the Buzz? (Source: Hospitality Technology Overview, Dr. Daniel J. Connolly, University of Denver)
ASP
.NET
Customer-Centric
Peer-to-Peer
Supply-Chain Management
Wi-Fi
VPN
Malware
Dual Processing
Outsourcing
BPO
Podcasting
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Why You Should You Care about IT?After all it is a complex “IT” world…
• Manage and control
• Revenue generation
• Cost reduction
• Communication
• Productivity, efficiency, and consistency
• Supporting tool for innovation
• Creator of time zone obsolescence
• …..other infinite possibilities(Source: Hospitality Technology Overview, Dr. Daniel J. Connolly, University of Denver)
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Hospitality operations Are Technically Complex(Source: Hospitality Technology Overview, Dr. Daniel J. Connolly, University of Denver)
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"Every business decision triggers an IT event."
- Robert Napier, former CIO of Hewlett-Packard
Our job is to marry technology with business opportunities and problems to create value.
The wise words of an expert…
(Source: Hospitality Technology Overview, Dr. Daniel J. Connolly, University of Denver)
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Wireless Everywhere(Source: Hospitality Technology Overview, Dr. Daniel J. Connolly, University of Denver)
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What else shall we be concerned next?
(Source: Hospitality Technology Overview, Dr. Daniel J. Connolly, University of Denver)
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What are the opportunities future leaders will capitalize on?
1. Opportunities for the service industry are endless, and are the same as for every other industry
2. They are found in all major economic categories that both, the service industry, and related/supporting industries are involved with
3. Emerging- negative issues can be turned into positive outcome
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What opportunities can future leaders explore and capitalize on?
•By the end of this decade 27 millions U.S. baby boomers will retire. Many countries hope to benefit from this tourist segment
•Globalization will allow retirees to travel to distant destination
•Retirees can travel at any time of the year, with more spending power than ever before
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What opportunities can future leaders explore and capitalize on? Cont…
• Marketeers will target special groups to stimulate demand for travel and related services (predictive analytics and management)
• Primary segments will be:" Health- related tourism, Agro-eco-eno-gastronomic-tourism; and space tourism.
Not need, but desire by motivation will be the key factor in the selection of touristdestination
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Modeling the international tourism segments by motivating factors; an inferential situational framework
1. National
2. Regional
3. Local
1. FRANCE
Tourists’ Choice of Destination Decided on
specific Motivating factors
SampleRanking OfMotivating Factors for
Traveling to specificdestinations:
1. Culture1.History
1.Ecology2.3.Gastronomy
2.3.Enology3.Fashion
3. Celebrities
Ranked DestinationChoice:
2. ILE DE FRANCE
2. CHAMPAGNE
3. PARIS
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What opportunities can future leaders explore and capitalize on? Cont…•Globalization of ethnic cuisines: any foods, any time, anywhere.
•Economies of scale due to globalization: material’s cost reduction due to lower production cost by producers
•Payment media centralization: in many countries citizens can buy many things with a cell phone now; there will be unlimited possibility in the future; cash payments may become obsolete
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OK, now what?
How, can a future leader explore possible futures, stay competitive,continue to innovate and produce
above average returns?Entrepreneurship,
Invention and innovation throughStrategic formulation and
Implementation will drive leaders Toward competitive and Sustainable success…
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THE INNOVATION MODEL: A THEORETICAL APPROACH
CORPORATE LEVEL STRATEGIES
What If?Contingency
plan
Productexample:Service
Plan of action
Are we Firstmovers ?
Methodology
Environmentalscanning
DemandtimelineLongevity -
SustainabilityLevel ofquality
What market?
BUSINESS LEVEL
STRATEGIES
Deliverystrategies
Generateintend
Formulatestrategies
Implement strategies
Possible solution
POINT OF ORIGIN
“formulating and idea
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“Futures” Strategies•Create a timeline of milestones bridging from the imperfect present to a better future; ALWAYS BE FIRST AND
FAST
•Identify stakeholders, allies, and collaborators; inventorying resources; CAREFULLY OBSERVE NEW COMERS
•Master commitment to change; SEDENTARY LEADERS WILL LOSE MARKET SHARES VERY RAPIDLY
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•Identify and Monitor Change•Critique Implications•Imagine Difference of Better Futures•Envision Preferred Outcomes•Strategically Plan and Implement Changes
•Control and adjust implementations•Strive for sustainance of obtimum results and growth
…repeat cycle by constantly identifying and monitoring changes; by adding to, and eliminating from strategic planning, while perfecting “futures” explorations
Key components to a successful future
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Thank you for your attention.
Any questions?If you wish to receive a copy
of this presentation, please send an email to:
[email protected] – 2006 © Angelo A. Camillo – Daniels College of Business
University of DenverDo not reprint or disseminate without permission