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Managing a volcanic eruption in a small island country: Lessons from the 2014-15 eruption of Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apai in the Kingdom of Tonga

Steven Sherburn1, Taaniela Kula2, Leveni Aho3, Moleni Tu'uholoaki4, Kyle Lee5

1GNS Science, New Zealand

2Ministry of Lands & Natural Resources, Tonga

3National Emergency Management Office, Tonga

4Metoffice, Tonga

5Metservice, New Zealand

STAR 2016

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Acknowledgements

Nico Fournier, Head of Department, VolcanologyGNS Science

Funding GNS Scienceassistance to Tonga

Nico Fournier, Head of Department, VolcanologyGNS Science

New Zealand High Commission, Nuku'alofa

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Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apaiThe Eruption 20 December 2014 – 19 January 2015

• ~65 km NW Nuku'alofa• Previous eruption 2009

17 January 2015

Airbus Defence & Space Pleiades satellite @CultureVolcan

HH

HT

17 January 2015

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Success ☺:Cooperation Between Responding Agencies

• GSU (Geological Sciences Unit, Ministry Land & Natural Resources)

• NEMO (National Emergency Management Organisation)

• Tonga MetOffice• Tonga Airports Ltd• NZ Metservice (Wellington VAAC)• Airlines

– Real Tonga

– Air New Zealand, Fiji Airways, Virgin Australia

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Success ☺:Eruption Notification, AssessmentGSU, MLNR

• Observations• Historical data• Other data• Assessment of likely

impacts

• Expect limited direct impact on local people ☺

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Success ☺:Reporting of Eruptions

But ….. reports not always accurate

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Shortcomings ☻:Under-estimated Potential Impact of Volcanic Ash on Airline Flights

• Trade winds likely to blow any ash west, away from Tonga

• And did in early stages• 2009 Hunga Ha'apai eruption had a relatively

limited impact on airline industry

Focus ► volcanic ash impact

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Initial Impact – Nil

Sulphur dioxideplumefrom satellite datawind

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Later Impact – Flight Cancellations Due to AshFor Three Days

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The Reality – Little Ash in the PlumeFlight Cancellations Probably Not Required

Nuku'alofa seafront

Need better ash observations

January 15, ~ 1pm

Pilot report

Ash plume to more 30,000 feet ☻

Clearly mostly steam, certainly at aircraft altitude

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How to Get Better Plume Observations

1)Correctly estimate if the plume is ash rich or ash poor

2)Better estimation of maximum plume height from Tongatapu

Feed into to ash plume modellingby Wellington VAAC(NZ Metservice)

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Lesson: Basic Training Will Pay DividendsBasic Volcano Observation Skills

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Lesson: Specific Training Will Pay DividendsPlume Ash Content – Pilot's Understanding

Peter Williams, Real Tonga2015 January 7

Beware shadow effects

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Lesson: Simple Solutions May be BestEstimating the Height of a Volcanic Plume

How high is the plume?

Solution: Plumometer

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Lesson: Indirect Data Sources Can HelpSatellite Imagery Can Confirm Eruptions

Himawari-8http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/

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Lesson: Support is SupportLet the Locals Deal with the Media

Not completely successful ☻But tried very hard ….

Media often want to speakwith “overseas experts”

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Summary

• Excellent initial response, with limited resources ☺

• Under-estimated ash impact on aviation ☻• Key lessons

• Training to address any issues• Simple solutions may be best• Indirect data sources can help - satellite• Supporters should only support

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