Making Use of Big Data What You Can Learn from Detailed Real Estate Data

October 20, 2015

PETER ANGELIDES, PHD, AICP

PRINCIPAL

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.

PHILADELPHIA, PA

Overview

• Trends in Big Data availability

• Examples of planning-related Big Data

usage

• Real Estate- specific data sources and

uses

Source: SINTEF, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130522085217.htm

More than

90%of the world’s data has

been generated since 2011

Creation of Big Data

Source: IBM 2012, https://www.ibm.com/annualreport/2013/bin/assets/2013_ibm_annual.pdf

Big Data

• Trend towards big, “open” data

• Data available from municipal

sources, corporate sources, and more

• Uses are varied and creative

Federal/Regional Sources

• Census (LEHD, Decennial, ACS, PUMS)

• Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Department of Transportation

• World Health Org. or World Bank

• MPOs (i.e. DVRPC)

CENSUS - DECENNIAL

• Collected once every 10 years

• Intended to provide accurate population

count and basic demographic data

• Sent to every U.S. household

Source: http://www.census.gov/2010census/about/

Municipal Sources

• Individual Office Datasets

- Property Assessments

- Recorder of Deeds

- Police (Crime Incident Data)

- 311 calls

• Munistats (municipal tax rates in PA)

Municipal Sources

New Trend: Citywide Open Data

Private Sources

Data Collected by Private Companies

• Uber

• Google

• Mastercard

Private Sources

Data for Purchase

• REIS/ CoStar/ IRR (Real Estate)

• NETS (Businesses)

• ESRI (Geo and census)

• STR (Industry)

• Nielson (Consumer data)

EXAMPLE 1 - PHI

Philadelphia Housing Index

• Assessment Data

• Transaction Data

• Many uses

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing

Index

Philadelphia House Sales

Dataset

Philadelphia Property

Assessment Data (OPA)

Philadelphia Transaction Data

(Recorder of Deeds)

Philadelphia Geographic Data

(Census, ESI, OpenDataPhilly)

Data Merge Problems

Human Error/ Dataset Differences

VS

OPA Entries

248 Krams Ave

230 Furley St

9906 Bustleton Ave, Unit C13

1737-39 Chestnut St

Philadox Entries

248 Krams St

230 W Furley St

9906 Bustleton Ave, Unit C-13

1737 Chestnut St

Data Merge Problems

Time Lag in Data Entry

Screenshot from Philadox Deed

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing

Index

Philadelphia and Comparative House Price Indices 2003 – 2014 Q3 (2003 = 100)

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Philadelphia Philadelphia Metro Area National Average

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing

Index

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing

Index

Each dot on the map represents

one sale. The color indicates the

price per square foot, following the

classification shown on the chart

below.

More than $200

$150 to $200

$101 to $150

$51 to $100

$26 to $50

$25 or Less

473

406

849

930

456

497

Count of Sales by Price per Square Foot

2014, Q3

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing

Index

Subregion House Price Indices 2000 – 2014 Q3 (2003 = 100)

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Far Northeast Northeast North

Northwest Lower North/River Center City/University

West/Southwest South Citywide

Color of Subregion on chart corresponds to color of

Subregions on map. Quarterly changes noted on map.

-0.1%

+1.0%

-1.3%

+1.6%

+2.8%

+1.2%+0.3%

+5.2%

EXAMPLE 2 – Open Space

Similar to PHI

• Values an asset or characteristic

Case Study: Value of Open Space

$16.3 billion added to the value of

southeastern Pennsylvania’s

housing stock

$240 millionIn annual property and

transfer tax revenue for

local governments

$133 millionIn costs avoided as a result

of the natural provision of

environmental services

$577 millionIn annual benefit for

residents who recreate on

protected open space

$795 millionIn avoided medical costs as a

result of recreation

that takes place on

protected open space

6,900 jobscreated on or as a result

of protected open space

in the five county region

Case Study: Value of Open Space

Case Study: Value of Open Space

EXAMPLE 3 – LEHD

Commuting Patterns

• Works at any geography

• Stratified by income

- $0 - $1,250

- $1250 - $3,333

- >$3,333

CENSUS - LEHD (ON THE MAP)

Source: U.S. Census 2015, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

CENSUS - LEHD (ON THE MAP)

Source: U.S. Census 2015, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

MUNISTAT

Sources: Munistat - PA DCED (2015), Econsult Solutions (2015)

Combined Resident and School District Earned Income Tax

CENSUS - LEHD (ON THE MAP)

Sources: LEHD 2015 http://onthemap.ces.census.gov, PA DCED (2015) https://www.dced.state.pa.us/systems-and-websites/

Estimated Resident EIT Payments to Sampleville Township

under One Percent Resident EIT, County Summary

County of

Workplace

Sampleville

Resident

Jobs

subject to

EIT

Earnings of

Sampleville

Resident Jobs

subject to EIT

Estimated EIT

Payments to

Sampleville

Estimated EIT

Currently Paid

to Other

Municipalities

Percent of

Estimated EIT

Currently Paid

to Other

Municipalities

Bucks 12,152 491,559,798 4,915,598 1,839,721 37%

Montgomery 3,113 148,242,619 1,482,426 1,295,707 87%

Delaware 660 31,330,978 313,310 102,300 33%

Chester 546 25,159,330 251,593 143,338 57%

Northampton 135 5,884,209 58,842 60,458 100%

Other Counties 381 14,555,996 145,560 149,590 100%

Total PA 16,986 716,732,930 7,167,328 3,591,114 50%

EXAMPLE 4 – ACS

Similar to PHI

• Values an asset or characteristic

CENSUS – AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

(ACS)

• Collected continuously and available in 1, 3,

and 5 year aggregations

• Sent to small sample of U.S. households

(roughly 3.5 million per year), so all data are

estimates

• Intended to provide more detailed but less

accurate data.

Source: http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance.html

AMERICAN FACTFINDER (ACS AND

DECENNIAL)

Source: http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t

AMERICAN FACTFINDER (ACS AND

DECENNIAL)

Source: http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t

CENSUS – PUBLIC USE MICRODATA SAMPLE

(PUMS)

• Raw version of the data used to create

ACS estimates

• Contains raw individual responses

instead of data aggregated to

geographic area

• Gives much more information but large

and more complex to use

Source: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/technical-documentation/pums.html

DEMOGRAPHIC MULTIPLIERS WITH PUMS

• Raw data allows for creation of

demographic multipliers based on

averages from ACS data

• Vital to development impact assessment

DEMOGRAPHIC MULTIPLIERS EXAMPLE

Unit Type

Number of

Bedrooms Number of Units

Public School

Students/Housing

Unit

Total New Public

School Students

Single Family – Age

Targeted 3 50 0.15 8

Single Family 3 20 0.29 6

Single Family 4 100 0.95 95

Townhouse - Owner

Occupied 3 110 0.29 32

Townhouse - Rental 3 20 0.64 13

Mixed Use Condominium 3 40 0.29 12

Apartments 1 150 0.07 11

Apartments 2 130 0.33 43

Total Housing Units 620 218

Estimated Number of New Public School Students

Resulting from a Sample Residential Development

Source: ESI (2015), ACS 5-year 2013 (https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data/pums.html)

DEMOGRAPHIC MULTIPLIERS EXAMPLE

Source: ESI (2015), ACS 5-year 2013 (https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data/pums.html)

Revenue Deficit

Revenue Surplus

• Only available

in summarized

tables

• Small

sample

size

• Conducted

yearly

• More

detailed

data

• Only available as

raw data

• Large sample size

• Conducted every 10 years

• Contains only basic data

PUMS

DECENNIAL

ACS

• Large sample size

• Conducted every 10 years

• Contains basic, accurate data

• Available in summarized tables

Decennial Census

• Small sample size

• Conducted yearly

• More detailed, less accurate data

• Available in summarized tables

ACS (American Community

Survey)

• Raw version of data used to create ACS tables

• More data to manipulate but harder to work with

• Can be used to create demographic multipliers

PUMS (Public Use Microdata

Sample)

SUMMARY OF CENSUS DATA TYPES

Other Examples

• CyclePhilly

• WindyGrid

• SEPTA / PAT Cards

• Rich Blocks Poor Blocks (census

data)

• Asavea / Philly Police Crime Map

Use: DVRPC/ CyclePhilly

• Smartphone app CyclePhilly collects

data on bicycle trips from users

• DVRPC used data to analyze biking

patterns in Philadelphia

Source: http://www.cyclephilly.org/

Use: Chicago WindyGrid

GIS Application for use by city officials that integrates city building

and spatial data, 911 and 311 calls, and public tweets in real-time.

Source: Harvard Data-Smart City Solutions, http://datasmart.ash.harvard.edu/

Use: New Transit Cards

Thank You

Questions?

Peter Angelides, PhD, AICPEconsult Solutions215-717-2777econsultsolutions.com