making the transition: education and labor market entry in central- and eastern europe education...

Making the Transition: Education and Labor Market Entry in Central- and Eastern Europe

Education attainment and labor market entry of highly educated in Central- and Eastern Europe

Irena Kogan, University of Bamberg Michael Gebel, MZES, University of Mannheim Clemens Noelke, MZES, University of Mannheim and Harvard University

DECOWE Conference, 24-26 September, Ljubljana, Slovenia


Project “Education Systems and Labour Markets in Central and Eastern Europe“

Ukraine

Estonia

Poland

Czech Rep.

Slovenia

Croatia Serbia

Eastern Germany

Hungary

Russia


Our contribution to the existing literature on transformation processes

Research on the consequences of transformation process on social inequality, labor markets and life courses in CEE (e.g. Nee 1989; Heyns 2005; Diewald et al 2006)

Our study complements the existing research on the transformation in CEE by analyzing comparatively education systems (their diversity and dynamics) in the transformation process

Focus on the consequences of system transformation on young people’s labor market integration


Our contribution to the existing literature on school-to-work transitions Comparative studies have shown the central

role of the education systems in structuring the labour market entry (Müller/Shavit 1998; Müller/Gangl 2003; Müller/Kogan 2003)

Geographical extension of exiting comparative studies on the school-to-work transition

More detailed analysis of the structuring effect of education: measuring institutional set-up of the education system at the individual level

Use of high quality, longitudinal data in order to study the dynamics of school-to-work transition


Expansion of tertiary education in CEE: Distribution of educational degrees among recent (2000-2005) school leavers

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

DE East

CZ HU PL CR SR UA RU

lower secondary

secondary

post-secondary/tertiary


Diversification of tertiary education: Distribution of educational degrees among recent school leavers with a post-secondary or tertiary degree

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

DE East

CZ HU PL CR SR UA RU

post-sec, lower tert

higher tertiary


Development of educational degrees in a cohort perspective

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Czech Republic

<1979

1980 – 1989

1990 – 1995

1996 – 2000

2001 – 2007 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Russia

1966-70

1971-75

1976-79

1980-84

1985-90

1991-99

2000-05


Main research questions at the post-secondary/tertiary level

Do tertiary graduates possess labor market advantage despite expansion?

Does the increasing tertiary institution heterogeneity bring diversity in rewards between graduates from different tertiary education institutions?

Does the performance of tertiary education graduates vary with the national institutional settings?


Research Design


General research design

10 country studies written by national experts Drawing on high quality longitudinal data Use of state-of-the-art quantitative modeling

techniques Selection of countries in order to provide substantial

variation in terms of education institutions Standardized definitions of sample and variables But use of detailed national education classifications

and additional information about education characteristics in order to capture the institutional specificities of each country


Comparative framework: across time and countries

School-to-work transitions during the transition from socialism to capitalism in lenses of the cohort change (Russia, Czech republic, Estonia)

School-to-work transitions since the start of reforms (Slovenia, Hungary, East Germany)

Detailed account of school-to-work transitions for a recent cohort of school leavers (Poland, Serbia, Croatia, Ukraine)

Education effects are theoretically derived + explained at the micro-level

In selected countries measurement of specific single institutions of the education system at the individual level, e.g. firm-based vs. school-based training; tuition vs. tuition-free tertiary education


Data sources an definitions

Country Kind of survey Age range Definition of first job Ukraine retrospective school leaver survey 15-34 first significant job Serbia retrospective school leaver survey 15-34 first significant job Croatia retrospective school leaver survey 15-34 first significant job Poland retrospective school leaver survey …-27 first significant job Hungary retrospective youth survey 14-29 first job >3 months Estonia retrospective life history study …-34 first significant job Czech republic retrospective life history study 19-34 any first job Russia retrospective life history study 18-… any first job Slovenia administrative register panel data 15-34 first significant job East Germany panel survey 15-34 first significant employment

spell


Analytic steps in country chapters

Social selectivity of educational attainment (multinomial logistic regression)

Time until first job (duration model) First job quality (ISEI of the first job) First job duration with exits to another employment

and non-employment (competing destination piecewise constant exponential duration model)


Results


Effects of education on hazard rates of the 1st job entry by country


Effect of education on the 1st job status (ISEI) by country


Higher tertiary vs. lower tertiary and post-secondary non-tertiary

Social selectivity (%) Job search ISEI Job stability

Job-to-job mobility

Employment exits

Upward mobility

Persistence

Eastern Germany < > ≈ ≈ n.a. ≈ Czech Republic < > > > n.a. n.a. Croatia < > ≈ > ≈ ≈ Serbia < > ≈ > ≈ ≈ Slovenia n.a. n.a. ≈ > ≈ ≈ Hungary < > > > ≈ ≈ Poland < > > > ≈ < Estonia ≈ ≈ > > ≈ ≈ Ukraine < > > > ≈ <

Note: > pertains to a larger and < to a smaller effect for higher tertiary tracks as compared to lower tertiary, whereas ≈ signifies no difference between the tracks


Higher tertiary vs. lower tertiary and post-secondary non-tertiary

With regard to the social selectivity of access to post-secondary education a uniform finding is that low-level tertiary education is a very open track of post-secondary education

Graduating from longer university programs ensures higher status employment in all countries analyzed, except for Eastern Germany, and quicker labor market entry is guaranteed for the university graduates in the majority of countries covered by our analysis

Hardly any difference between graduates from lower- and higher-level tertiary education with regard to the stability of first employment


Relative performance of higher tertiary educated school leavers compared to graduates of post-secondary and lower tertiary education with regard to the speed of the first job entry and ist quality depending on the size of higher tertiary sector

Speed of the first job entry

Status of the first job


Relative performance of higher tertiary educated school leavers compared to graduates of post-secondary and lower tertiary education with regard to the speed of the first job entry and its quality depending on the GDP growth in the service sector

CR

CZ

EE

EG

PL

SL

SR

UA

14

16

18

20

22

24

Eff

ect o

f hig

her

tert

iary

vs.

upp

er

sec

voc

2 4 6 8 10% growth in services

Speed of the first job entry

Status of the first job


Tuition vs. non-tuition / private vs. public

Admission of state-financed regular students, tuition-paying regular as well as tuition-paying part-time/per correspondence (i.e. so-called irregular) students

Analyzed for Poland, Serbia, and UkraineNo indication that the type of the program, budget- or tuition-financed, is of any importance

Academic achievements of fee-paying and fee-waved students might not systematically differ, as both groups undergo the very same education process (i.e. same courses, same lecturers, and same peers).


Part-time vs. full-time students

Part-time education is a path left open for the youth least inclined towards time-consuming academic studies and/or for those who are already employed and are thus have less time to complete education

Analyzed for Poland, Serbia, and UkraineSignificant differences are observed between graduates from full-time programs and those studying part-time in the countries: as a rule part-time students are quicker in entering employment but attain lower-status jobs

making the transition: education and labor market entry in central- and eastern europe education...

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