Presented at Building Climate Resilient Infrastructure Systems in Ontario

September 26, 2019

Christine Zimmer, P. Eng. MSc.Eng.Senior Manager, Water and Climate ScienceCredit Valley Conservation

Making the Case for Investing in Climate Resiliency

Risks of not including Climate Change into our

Operational Planning/Budget/Resources

Risks

Legal

Environmental, Health & Safety

Economic

2

Ontario’s disaster

financial assistance from

2005-2009 was $8 million,

but rose to approximately

$44 million between 2010

– 2015, mostly due to

flooding

Global Economic Trends

2018 Zizzo Strategy Inc. All rights reserved.

3

• The world’s biggest companies

representing ~ US$17 trillion have valued

climate risks to their businesses at ~

US$1 trillion - with many likely to hit within

the next 5 years

• Bank of Canada warns that estimated cost

of inaction could be $21-43 billion/year by

2050

• World Economic Forum named climate

change top trend in 2017 Global Risks

Report

• Pension funds, Investors, stock

exchanges, securities regulators,

Moody’s Municipal credit rating agency

pushing for enhanced climate-related

disclosure

How does risk disclosure apply to Stormwater?

SWM Challenges: Jurisdictions

Source: Adapted from Municipality of Middlesex, 2015 (https://www.middlesexcentre.on.ca/Public/Stormwater)

The

ProvincePrivate Owners

What does Stormwater Level of Service mean to you?

Planning DesignMonitoring, Inspection & Maintenance

Flood Forecasting,

Warning Systems & Emergency

Management

Audit & Adaptive

Management

Level of Service

Different Types of Flooding

Riverine Flooding (surface)Source: Toronto Region Conservation Authority, 2019

Urban Flooding

(overland)

Sanitary Sewer BackupSource: Minneapolis Basement Flood Damage Restoration

Evacuation Plans do not consider

flooding

Critical Infrastructure

failure poses potential

threat to public

Community and

municipal service

needs

Flooding does not only impact infrastructure, there are other

municipal and community risks that need to be considered

Water Quality Impacts of Flooding

Low Carbon Communities

Strategy

Flood Resiliency Strategy

Green Natural Infrastructure

Strategy

Public Education Strategy

Peel Climate Change Partnership Plan:Four Strategies 2018-2022

In the ground action and prioritization of

high risk areas

Emergency Management/ Flood

Forecasting and Warning

Compatible land use through planning policy

Risk and PerformanceManagement

Informed by the Peel

Vulnerability Assessments

Informed by the

Peel Climate Change

Partner Feedback

Mandate: Working together to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change as we

transition to low carbon and resilient communities within Peel Region.

Partners:

Identify Flood, Water Quality and

Erosion Risks

Identify Potential

Damages

Evaluate Options

for greatest ROI

Risk and Return on Investment Tool

22.00

32.54

17.6816.00

20.02

12.7514.8

17.88

11.75

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Ponds only Ponds & LA Ponds, LA,&

ResidentialLID

Payb

ack P

eri

od

(yrs

)

Historical Climate

Future Climate (2050s)

Future Climate (2080)

Direct Damages to Buildings due to flooding

‘do nothing’ baseline climate scenario (100 yr return period)

Direct Damages to Buried Infrastructure (including Roads and Railways) due to Stream Erosion

‘do nothing’ baseline climate scenario (100 yr return period)

Priority Flood Risk Areas based on Total Economic Impact

Priority Emergency Preparedness Mapping

Total Direct Damages – Baseline Climate ‘do nothing’ Scenario

$-

$20,000,000.00

$40,000,000.00

$60,000,000.00

$80,000,000.00

$100,000,000.00

$120,000,000.00

$140,000,000.00

$160,000,000.00

100 Yr 50 Yr 25 Yr 10 Yr 5 Yr 2 Yr

Tota

l Dir

ect

Dam

age

s (P

ub

lic a

nd

Pri

vate

)

Storm Profile

Riverine (Buildings) Groundwater (Buildings) Urban Overland (Buildings) Sanitary (Buildings) Roads, Rails and Erosion Costs

SWM Pond Land Acquisition LID

Evaluating Management Options

Average Annual Damages (AAD)

$24,140,000.00

$17,820,000.00 $17,160,000.00

$11,960,000.00

$42,580,000.00

$34,100,000.00 $33,020,000.00

$24,120,000.00

$53,420,000.00

$44,070,000.00 $42,810,000.00

$32,490,000.00

$-

$10,000,000.00

$20,000,000.00

$30,000,000.00

$40,000,000.00

$50,000,000.00

$60,000,000.00

Baseline Stormwater ManagementPonds

Ponds + LA Ponds + LA+ LID Resi

To

tal D

am

ag

es (

pu

blic a

nd

Pri

vate

)

Baseline vs. Management Scenarios

AAD Current - RROIT AAD 2050 - RROIT AAD - 2080s

Payback Period

22.00

32.54

17.68

16.00

20.02

12.75

14.8

17.88

11.75

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Ponds only Ponds & LA Ponds, LA, & Residential LID

Payb

ack P

eri

od

(yrs

)

Management Scenarios

Historical Climate Future Climate (2050s) Future Climate (2080)

How the Risk Tool Fits into the Flood Strategy

• Identifies High Priority areas for Partners

• Identifies management options for upgrades

• Informs Master Plans, Watershed Plans, Asset Management

Plans, Flood Mitigation Plans

• Meets Federal and Provincial grant requirements (Climate

Change Lens, considers social vulnerability, ROI and life cycle

costing)

Funders and Contributors

questions?

inspired by nature

Climate Change Results

24 Hour Storm – 2050sCurrent Return Period

(years)

Current Annual Probability (%) RROIT - 2050s Annual Probability (%)

2 50% 65%

5 20% 30%

10 10% 15%

25 4% 10%

50 2% 5%

100 1% 3%

150 0.7% 2%

325 0.3% 1%

24 Hour Storm – 2080sCurrent Return Period

(years)

Current Annual Probability (%) 2080s Annual Probability (%)

2 50% 63%

5 20% 36%

10 10% 23%

25 4% 13%

50 2% 9%

100 1% 6%

140 0.71% 4%

340 0.29% 2%

835 0.12% 1%