Making Sense of U.S. Renewables Policy & Markets

Rusty HaynesDSIRE Project Manager

N.C. Solar Center / N.C. State University

Italian Trade CommissionNew York, NY

27 September 2012

• Created in 1995• Funded by U.S. DOE / NREL• Managed by NCSC / NCSU• Scope = government & utility

incentives & policies that promote RE/EE

• ~ 2,740 total summaries• ~175,000 users per month• DSIRE Solar: dsireusa.org/solar• DSIRE data services for businesses:

dsireusa.org/services

DSIRE Overview

Why is the U.S. market challenging?

• Investor-owned (210)• Public utilities (2,009)• Electric co-ops (883)• Federal (9)

• Federal (1)• States, territories, DC (~65)• Counties (3,143)• Municipalities (~30,000)

Regulatory Regimes Electric Utilities

U.S. Electric Industry Average Revenue, ¢ per kWh(Source: U.S. DOE, March 2012)

States encourage or require RE via:

Examples of incentives & policies included in DSIRE:

• Utility rates & revenue policies• Interconnection standards• Financial incentives• RPS polices / mandates• 3rd-party ownership • FITs

• Industry recruitment• Tax incentives (corporate, personal, property, sales)• Performance-based incentives• Grant programs• Loan programs• Rebate programs

• RPS policies• EE resource standards• Interconnection standards• Net metering policies• Solar/Wind access policies• Public benefits funds

RPS Policies(Source: DSIRE, September 2012)

29 states,+ DC have RPS policies

.

16 states,+ DC

have an RPS with solar/DG provisions

RPS Policies with Solar/DG Provisions(Source: DSIRE, September 2012)

RPS with solar / DG provision

RE goal with solar / DG provision

Solar water heating counts toward solar / DG provision

† Fuel cells qualify for solar carve-out

UT: limited to certain sectors

AZ: limited to certain sectors

VA: see notes

3rd-Party PV Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)(Source: DSIRE, August 2012)

Apparently disallowed by state or otherwise restricted by legal barriers

Status unclear or unknown

Authorized by state or otherwise currently in use, at least in certain jurisdictions within in the state

Puerto Rico

At least 22 states + DC & PR authorize or allow 3rd-party PV PPAs

CALIFORNIA“The Golden State” • AVG electric rates (R/C/I): 16.1 / 15.5 / 11.5¢ per kWh

• Installed PV/wind capacity (MW): 1,564 (#1) / 4,425 (#3)• Net metering / interconnection standards: A / A• RPS: 33% by 2020• CSI incentives: $2.167B budget / 1,940MW goal• Renewable Auction Mechanism: RE systems < 20MW; 1,000MW in 2 years• FIT (revisions IP): long-term contracts for RE < 3MW; floor of ~$89/MWh• Self-Generation Incentive Program: rebates for non-solar RE < 3MW• Property tax incentive (solar)• Strong muni & local solar incentives (LADWP, SMUD, Palo Alto)

ARIZONA“The Copper State”

• AVG electric rates (R/C/I): 11.9 / 10.1 / 7.0¢ per kWh• Installed PV/wind capacity: 398 (#3) / 238• Net metering / interconnection standards: A / ?• RPS: 15% by 2025 (30% DG)• Non-residential solar/wind tax credit (corporate, personal)• RE production tax credit (corporate, personal)• RE business tax incentives (tax credits, property tax incentives)• Residential solar/wind tax credit• RE property tax exemption & special assessment (utilities)• Solar/Wind sales tax exemption• Utility solar rebate programs (DG)

FLORIDA“The Sunshine State” • AVG electric rates (R/C/I): 11.7 / 9.8 / 8.6¢ per kWh

• Installed PV/wind capacity (MW): 95 (#9) / 0• Net metering / interconnection standards: B / D• RPS: none• Solar/Wind corporate tax credit ($0.01/kWh)• Solar sales tax exemption• Solar PTE repealed in 2008• Muni solar incentives (GRU, OUC) – progressive but small• Utility solar rebate programs (DG)

Key Points & Take-Aways

• Each state is basically its own market. Markets are driven by state policy, rates, RE resource availability.

• Federal policy is a wildcard. Industry focuses on states and state policy.

• Dominance of 3PO model -- profitable, easy. Clarification needed in many states.

• Long-term perspective -- a decade of overwhelmingly solid state policy progress, with little backtracking.

• Increasing policy complexity. Implications?

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Contact Info

Rusty HaynesDSIRE Project Manager

N.C. Solar Center / NCSUrusty_haynes@ncsu.edu

919.513.0445