Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax

Referendum

Presented by

Beth S. Schapiro, PhDbeth@schapirogroup.com

GAMPODecember 6, 2011

•Evaluating Polling Data

Source of the Poll

•Who conducted the survey?

•Who commissioned it?

Methodology

•Telephone

•Live callers or Interactive Voice Response (IVR)

•Online

Voter Sample•Who was polled?

•Likely voters, registered voters, or all adults?

•Demographics: geography, political party identification

•How many were polled?

•Margin of sampling error

Poll Content

•What questions were asked?

•How were they worded?

Comparison to Other Survey Findings

•Trends

•Are these findings consistent with other recent polls?

•2012 Situation Analysis

Voters•Low turnout expected

• No major statewide campaigns

• Will vary by region

•Contested Congressional primaries

•Metro Atlanta multi-million dollar campaign

•Primary voters are generally the base voters of each party

•Voters not in a very good mood

Political Dynamics

•Unique referendum

•Asking voters to vote for both personal interest and regional good

•First time project selection process

•Lots of moving parts and political interests to be served

•What It Will Take to Win

Components of Successful Campaign

•Broad coalition of supporters

•Well-organized with strong leadership, effective message, and solid campaign plan

•Identify and communicate with targeted voters

Components of Successful Campaign

•Comprehensive program for communicating with voters

•“Earned” media, paid advertising, social media, direct mail

•Must have transparency and complete and accurate information about projects