LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS

ON CLIMATE CHANGE:

Neglected farmers in developing countries

by: Dwi Andreas Santosa

IPB

International NGO Forum on Indonesian Development 15th Conference, Jakarta, October 27 – 28, 2008

LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS ON CLIMATE

CHANGE

Neglected farmers in developing countries

Dwi Andreas SantosaDepartment of Soil and Land Resources

Faculty of Agriculture Bogor Agricultural University

Jl. Meranti, Kampus IPB Darmaga, BOGOR E-mail: dsantosa@indo.net.id

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CARBON EMISSION AND CLIMATE CHANGEClimate change: product of capitalist and techno-scientific socio-economic systems (Holloway, 1999)

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WHAT THE NEGOTIATIONS FOR?

“Cap and Trade System”5.2% below 1990, 2008-2012

Lowering overall cost

7% 8%6%

8%

0%

Overall Green House Gasses Emission

Reduction

Purchase Credits from CDM projects in non-Annex I

Countries3

CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISMS

CERs

Bantuan implementasi proyek

Negara Non-Annex I (negara berkembang), lokasi kegiatan proyek

Negara Annex I (negara industri), pembeli CER atau pemberi bantuan

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THE NEGOTIATIONS

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• US vocally against effective action on climate change– Reliance upon fossil fuel for its economy

• Europe: calling for stronger action– More incentive to reduce dependency on

fossil fuel• Developing countries?

– Concerned about their right to develop, to use their resources, and seeking social justice and equity

BUSINESS INTERESTS

• “The Kyoto Protocol has been corrupted in order to give TNCs – the main culprits behind accelerating climate change – a privileged status as implementers of the market based “solution” (Green House Market Mania, 2000)

• Strong push by big business lobbies and related interests when environmental regulation is attempted

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POLICY STRATEGY

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• Global Issues, February 14, 2007– Step 1 Deny it: A lot of skepticisms initially

from US-based scientist– Step 2 Fight it: “blame someone else for it”– Step 3 Dilute it: extremely heavy concessions

on steps and measures to take– Step 4 Delay it: delaying effective action or

attempting to derail effective action– Step 5 and 6 Do it and market it: to ensure

they doesn’t lose its position of power

CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

• All parties must formulate and implement national or regional programs containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change (Art. 4.1b)

• Abnormal changes in air temperature and rainfall, increases in frequency and intensity of drought and flood events – Changes in spatial distribution of agro-

ecological zones, habitats, distribution pattern of plant diseases and pests

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE

• Impact of climate change on agriculture, primary effects– Plant productivity (warmer temperature, higher CO2

concentration)– Plant heat stress– Crop yields– Geographical shifts in vegetation– Introduction of new crops– Crop-management change in response to climatic change

• Secondary effects– Changes in land prices– Changes in fertilizer use

• Have most significant impacts on small-scale farmers

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DEVELOPING VS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

• The agricultural GDP in developed countries would likely benefit from climate change

• Developing countries would face decrease of GDP in agriculture (Asia -4% and Africa -2 to -9%, FAO, 2007)

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FOOD PRODUCTION 2025

RegionRegion Population Population 20252025

Consumption/Consumption/CapitaCapita

Demand Demand 20252025

Production Production 20252025

Balance Balance 20252025

South AsiaSouth Asia 20212021 237237 549.7549.7 524.6524.6 --25.125.1East and East and Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia 23872387 338338 1040.91040.9 914.0914.0 --126.9126.9Latin AmericaLatin America 690690 265265 217.9217.9 171.2171.2 --46.746.7EuropeEurope 799799 634634 506.5506.5 619.4619.4 112.9112.9North AmericaNorth America 410410 780780 319.5319.5 558.2558.2 238.7238.7WorldWorld 80398039 363363 3046.53046.5 2977.72977.7 --68.868.8

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LAND AVAILABILITY FOR FOOD

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CountryCountry Land for Food Land for Food (1000 ha)(1000 ha)

Population Population (2002)(2002)

LandLand//Capita (mCapita (m22))

Argentina Argentina 33.70033.700 37.07437.074 9089.99089.9

Australia Australia 50.30450.304 19.15319.153 26264.326264.3

Bangladesh Bangladesh 8.0858.085 123.406123.406 655.2655.2

Brazil Brazil 58.86558.865 171.796171.796 3426.43426.4

Canada Canada 45.74045.740 30.76930.769 14865.614865.6

China China 143.625143.625 1282.1721282.172 1120.21120.2

India India 161.750161.750 1016.9381016.938 1590.61590.6

Indonesia 1)Indonesia 1) 7.7807.780 217.000217.000 358.5358.5

Thailand Thailand 31.83931.839 60.92560.925 5225.95225.9

USA USA 175.209175.209 285.003285.003 6147.66147.6

Vietnam Vietnam 7.5007.500 78.13778.137 959.9959.9

Indonesia 2)Indonesia 2) 9.7889.788 217.000217.000 451.1451.1

INDONESIAN FARMERS

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• 48 Percent of total population– Land 0.36 hectare– Most of them have less than 0.25 hectare

and no-land farmers• Depends on seed, technologies

(fertilizers, pesticides etc), credit, international trade

• Limit access on resources and information (including global warming)

• No capability to adapt to climate change

WHAT WE CAN DO?• Large reduction in adverse impacts from climate change

are possible when adaption is fully implemented• “Major class of adaptations” (Reilly and

Schimmelpfennig, 1999)– Seasonal changes and sowing dates– Different variety or species– Water supply and irrigation system– Other inputs (fertilizers, tillage methods, soil

management etc)– New crop varieties– Forest fire management, agro-forestry (FAO, 2005)

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CAPACITY BUILDING OF FARMERS

• Need to build their resilience to cope with climatic fluctuations

• Livelihood-based approach (FAO, 2007)– Promote climate change adaptation process

at grass root level– Small-scale farmers work on the basis of day-

to-day priorities rather than for longer-term• Understanding current livelihood systems,

indigenous knowledge, adaptive capacity, vulnerability

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THANK YOU

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