1

Major Issues in Mekong Development Major Issues in Mekong Development

–

2

Issues for: Top of the LMB BasinIssues for: Top of the LMB Basin

Physical Facts Socio economic Factors:

(Needs ) Current & potentials uses of

MK resources Issues facing those in the

upper LMB Who are affected ? ( via

various allocation of resources ?)

3

1. Physical facts 1. Physical facts 1. Physical facts 1. Physical facts

Water Contribution:

Upper Mekong (18%)

Lower Mekong (82%)

4

Lower Mekong water balance2 INDEPENDENT STATES:

LAOS & THAILAND

The top part LMB contribute 53% of the total inflow

The largest proportion of flow is from the left bank tributaries in Laos ( 35%)

5

The Top of The Top of LMBLMB

The Top of The Top of LMBLMB

- Left bank: largely mountainous w/ high peaks, steep land. Forest cover. Rich ecosystem intact. Very lightly population. One of the least developed region.

-Right bank: Plateau, largely agriculture ( 80+ % of all

land) highly populated. Fishery resources

6

2. SOCIAL/Economic 2. SOCIAL/Economic factors: Demandfactors: Demand

7

Social/ EconomicSocial/ Economic PopulationPopulationThai LMB 22 mil (of 63 mil) Thai LMB 22 mil (of 63 mil) Laos Laos 5.5 mil 5.5 mil

Cambodia20%

Laos9%

Thailand38%

Viet Nam33%

8

PopulatiPopulationon

0

20

40

60

80

100

milli

ons

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand LMB Viet Nam LMB

9

Social/Economic factors: Drivers/ needsSocial/Economic factors: Drivers/ needsSocial/Economic factors: Drivers/ needsSocial/Economic factors: Drivers/ needs

L& T economies of different types.

1. Laos heavy Nat. resources-dependence ( Ag. 53% of GDP) Poverty ~40%. Largely rural. Advantage in forestry & Hydro Power.

2. Thailand. Diverse economy( Ag. 16% of GDP)

light, agro industry.Advt. In value added & quality products. Export throughout the region. MK sources users

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand NEThailand

Viet Nam VN MekongDelta

GDP

per c

apita

(USD

)

1990

1995

1998

2000

Economic

growth

10

Macro-economic Context Macro-economic Context Macro-economic Context Macro-economic Context Different planning perspectives.

Different expectation of BDP

– T. national agenda/priorities

dominates the regional

(NE/N ->parts in the LMB).

– Laos LMB part is the country.

7

11

Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB

Hydro power generation Irrigated /agriculture

In stream need: fishery resources, Ecological health, Habitat protection, Biodiversity, Pollution control, Navigation

12

Uses for hydropower: Uses for hydropower:

Total cap of MKB is 43,000 MW

UMB: 23,000

LMB: 30,000 MW

Of the LMB 13,000 in Laos PDR, 13,000 in mainstream.

LMB: 18001800 MW

Total installed capacity Now:

UMB: 28502850 MW

13

Major DamsMajor Dams

Lao PDR:Lao PDR:

Nam Ngum 19711971

Nam Theun-Hinboun 19981998

Nam Leuk 19991999

Xeset 19911991

Huay HoHuay Ho 1999 1999

Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR

14

Major DamsMajor Dams

Thailand:Thailand:

Ubol Ratana 19651965

Nam Pung 19661966

Sirindhorn 19701970

Chulaphon 19721972

Pak Mun 19941994 Pak Mun Dam - Thailand

15

Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR

HydropowerHydropowerCurrent installed capacity:

•16 dams ( Thailand 11 & Laos 5)

Of these 10 are hydro power w/ Cap 815 MW (L 607MW & T 260 MW)

•Nearly 400+ Mw from Laos sold Thailand

•Planned dams ( 2008-2016)

•14 dams in Laos energy export =4900 MW

•5 PJ of 3000 MW to Thailand

•7 PJ of 1900 MW to Vietnam

16

MK resources use: hydro power MK resources use: hydro power MK resources use: hydro power MK resources use: hydro power

Thailand sources of energy ( 97,000) – 15 % hydro power

17

Energy Energy requirementrequirement ( GWH) ( GWH)Energy Energy requirementrequirement ( GWH) ( GWH)Energy Needs in LMB

333,000

170,000

5700 44000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

1990

2000

2020

1990 4400 8600 0 0

2000 97,000 26,000 381 865

2020 333,000 170,000 5700 4400

Th VN Cam Loas

Energy Consumtion/cap/year

1,400

290 34 124

4,100

1,450

250 450

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Th VN Cam Loas

year

KWh 2000

2020

18

Trading partners in energy Trading partners in energy

& hydropower& hydropower Trading partners in energy Trading partners in energy

& hydropower& hydropower

From 2008-2020Thailand: 7,400 MWFrom Loas 3700 MW (Hy)

700 MW (Lg)

From Yunan 3000 MW ( Jinghong)

Vietnam: 4,500 MW

From Laos 2500 MW ( S)

From Yunan 2000 MW ( Hanoi)

Cambodia

From Thailand: 90 MW

Irrigation Changes in paddy areas & production 1990- 2000

80%80%

60%60%

40%40%

20%20%

ProductionArea

Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet NamCambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam

20

Irrigation growthIrrigation growthTotal dry season irrigated cropped areasirrigated cropped areas (ha)Current: Upper LMB 0.4 mil ha, Lower LMB 3.50 mil ha

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

mill

ion

hect

ares

1985 1990 1995 2000

Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam

21

Irrigation Irrigation growthgrowth

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

milli

on h

ecta

res

1985 1990 1995 2000

Lao PDR

Irrigated dry season crop area

22

Irrigation Irrigation growthgrowth

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

milli

on h

ecta

res

1985 1990 1995 2000

Thailand

Irrigated dry season crop area

23

Irrigation Irrigation Irrigation Irrigation

Total regulation rate

whole MKB is 2.5 % of annual flow volume

Thailand: – 10 large scale dams for irrigation w/cap for 240,000 ha. ( ?) – Total effective storage of 5460 mil. M3.(7% mean annual flow in

Thailand)

Laos: – total effective storage of 5,200 mil m3. – Irrigate 160,000 ha

POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF IRRGATED AGRICULTURE ?

24

Fisheries Fisheries resourcesresources

Food security and local Food security and local livelihood livelihood

* Over 900,000 tons * Over 900,000 tons fresh water fish caught/ fresh water fish caught/ year in Laos & Thailand year in Laos & Thailand

((133,000 /790,000 tons) 133,000 /790,000 tons)

*Fish Main protein *Fish Main protein intake for rural house intake for rural house holds/poor.Appx. 71% holds/poor.Appx. 71%

HH in L ( 2.7 mil) depend HH in L ( 2.7 mil) depend on fish & forestry on fish & forestry

Resources as livelihood Resources as livelihood main strategymain strategy

26-30 kg/h/y- Laos 26-30 kg/h/y- Laos

30-45 kg/h/y-NE Thailand30-45 kg/h/y-NE Thailand

Instream needsInstream needs

25

Ecological Ecological health health

Instream needsInstream needs

Habitat protectionHabitat protectionBio-diversityBio-diversityPollution controlsPollution controls

26

River transport River transport and navigation and navigation

Instream needsInstream needs

The Mekong artery – protected The Mekong artery – protected under the 1995 Agreementunder the 1995 Agreement

27

Agro-industry - AquacultureAgro-industry - Aquaculture

Fish hatchery

28

Meeting the needs

Keeping the balance

29

Issues for the top of LMB #1 Issues for the top of LMB #1 Issues for the top of LMB #1 Issues for the top of LMB #1

The 2 counties are energy trading partners ( Thailand a prominent customer) with mutual gain & benefits.

– Thailand get clean / inexpensive energy sources.– Laos PDR gets needed foreign exchanges -government revenue

for macro economic development

MK water importance for irrigated agriculture. Laos-> potential for expansion, Thailand some expansion & intensification

Fishery resources are important base for their rural population's livelihood support/ food security.

– Laos main livelihood strategy.– Thailand cushioning /safety net when all else fell in industrial sector

30

IIssues for the top of LMB #2ssues for the top of LMB #2IIssues for the top of LMB #2ssues for the top of LMB #2

Issue of poverty ( esp. Loas) government need to earn more revenue to improve quality of life for its people-to give better basic social services.

Laos has wealth in natural resources -a important earning potential

Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR

31

IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2 IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2

Maintaining Assets: Left bank ( Laos) has rich pristine N. Resources - largely in tact- important assets for country, MK region and some for the world & mankind.– Unique ecosystem which supports diverse species of plants and

animal which are rare & global significance– Pool of precious Genetic resources ( e.g. medicine) might not be

found anywhere else.– Complex of rich wetlands & ecology which regulates the

functioning of the MK system, services of nature that support other economic productivities which we depend on.

Hydro power & forestry exploitation are " prime earners" for Laos. Dilemma: How to earn & develop and not losing the assets above??

32

IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2 IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2

Forest cover loss ( shifting cultivation L ) Thailand face rapidly Increasing energy demand - looking for

supplying sources OUTSIDE the country Delicate balance between needs/ priorities of Thailand ( as a

whole state) and the people living of its LMB regions (The poorest part on the country - 60% of the poor here) Sometimes these needs are not the same.

Thailand decentralize industry /growth center to NE & N. We expect increasing urbanization in NE (EW Corridor) more water demand & control waste / pollution.

Pollution from existing agro industry - inadequate law enforcement/ monitoring.

33

IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2 IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2

Irrigated intensification farming for export- how far do we go? High investment cost. High dose of chemicals. Good for export, but net benefit farmers? Risk market price & IN DEBTEDNESS ( 90%) & environmental cost ( not accounted for )

Thailand - drastic decrease of fish /edible animals ( species & quantity) due to high dose of farm chemicals in farm ( & due to reservoir /storage scheme)

How to ensure that country macro gain is also local Gain- not local burden. How to ensure fruits of development are shared fairly for those who lost their life base?

Balancing act when dealing with China on Nat.MK resources use ( Navigation) - need cooperation, but not taken advantage of us.