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- Major Economic and Workforce Trends for the Coming Decade-

Bob UhlenkottAGA Lunch – May 19, 2011

FIPSState Component CodeGross Domestic Product (GDP component) 1997 2006 2007 2008 % Chg.United States GDP by State (millions of current dollars) 8,237,994$ >>>>>>>>> 13,090,776$ 13,715,741$ 14,165,565$ 72%Idaho GDP by State (millions of current dollars) 28,510$ >>>>>>>>> 48,557$ 52,110$ 52,747$ 85%Montana GDP by State (millions of current dollars) 19,142$ >>>>>>>>> 31,794$ 34,266$ 35,891$ 87%Oregon GDP by State (millions of current dollars) 96,591$ >>>>>>>>> 151,205$ 158,268$ 161,573$ 67%Utah GDP by State (millions of current dollars) 56,590$ >>>>>>>>> 98,289$ 105,574$ 109,777$ 94%Washington GDP by State (millions of current dollars) 178,334$ >>>>>>>>> 289,070$ 310,279$ 322,778$ 81%Wyoming GDP by State (millions of current dollars) 14,904$ >>>>>>>>> 30,138$ 31,544$ 35,310$ 137%

United States Real GDP by state (millions of chained 2000 dollars) 8,620,955$ >>>>>>>>> 11,218,785$ 11,439,232$ 11,523,637$ 34%Idaho Real GDP by state (millions of chained 2000 dollars) 28,781$ >>>>>>>>> 43,767$ 45,545$ 45,547$ 58%Montana Real GDP by state (millions of chained 2000 dollars) 20,098$ >>>>>>>>> 25,825$ 26,776$ 27,253$ 36%Oregon Real GDP by state (millions of chained 2000 dollars) 95,568$ >>>>>>>>> 139,585$ 144,755$ 147,059$ 54%Utah Real GDP by state (millions of chained 2000 dollars) 60,081$ >>>>>>>>> 82,697$ 86,509$ 87,700$ 46%Washington Real GDP by state (millions of chained 2000 dollars) 188,481$ >>>>>>>>> 248,490$ 259,387$ 264,633$ 40%Wyoming Real GDP by state (millions of chained 2000 dollars) 16,001$ >>>>>>>>> 20,690$ 20,829$ 21,752$ 36%

United States Per capita real GDP by state (chained 2000 dollars) 31,619$ >>>>>>>>> 37,601$ 37,967$ 37,899$ 20%Idaho Per capita real GDP by state (chained 2000 dollars) 23,427$ >>>>>>>>> 29,953$ 30,442$ 29,890$ 28%Montana Per capita real GDP by state (chained 2000 dollars) 22,586$ >>>>>>>>> 27,316$ 27,991$ 28,170$ 25%Oregon Per capita real GDP by state (chained 2000 dollars) 28,922$ >>>>>>>>> 37,921$ 38,751$ 38,801$ 34%Utah Per capita real GDP by state (chained 2000 dollars) 28,343$ >>>>>>>>> 31,989$ 32,413$ 32,049$ 13%Washington Per capita real GDP by state (chained 2000 dollars) 33,214$ >>>>>>>>> 39,068$ 40,218$ 40,407$ 22%Wyoming Per capita real GDP by state (chained 2000 dollars) 32,693$ >>>>>>>>> 40,364$ 39,807$ 40,837$ 25%Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

Gross Domestic Product (Recessions, Productivity and Quality of Life)

September - 2007By Dennis Cauchon

Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly!

• Idaho’s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500.• Idaho’s low occurred in January 2010 at 583,400.• December 2010 published estimate is about 602,000. • Record Year-Over-Year job losses of around 48,300.• Total losses just over 58,000 recorded throughout 2010.

Tale of the Tape for Idaho’s Economy

The “REAL” or “TRUE” Rate of Unemployment!

Alternative Measures for Labor Underutilization

• U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;

• U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;

• U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);

• U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;

• U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and

• U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

Unemployment Rates - 2010 Annual Averages

Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6

United States 5.7 6 9.6 10.3 11.1 16.7California 7.6 7.9 12.2 13 14 22.1Idaho 4.1 5.4 9 9.3 9.9 16.3Montana 3.4 5 7.7 8 8.6 14.9Nevada 9.2 10.1 14.4 15.2 16 23.6Oregon 6.7 7.8 11 11.6 12.5 20Utah 4.2 4.8 8.2 8.8 9.5 15.1Washington 5.4 5.9 10.2 10.7 11.7 18.4Wyoming 3 3.6 6.6 7.1 7.6 11.5

StateAlternative Measures of Labor Underutilization

September - 2007By Dennis Cauchon

Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly!

• Idaho’s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500.• Idaho’s low occurred in January 2010 at 583,400.• December 2010 published estimate is about 602,000. • Record Year-Over-Year job of losses of around 48,300.• Total losses just over 58,000 recorded throughout 2010.

Tale of the Tape for Idaho’s Economy

Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul

AugSep Oct

NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun JulAug

Sep OctNov

Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul

AugSep Oct

NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During Recessions

1980-1982 1986 2001-2002 2008-2010 Forecast (Sep-09)Duration

Year

-to-

Year

% C

hang

e

Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul

AugSep Oct

NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun JulAug

Sep OctNov

Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul

AugSep Oct

NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During Recessions

1980-1982 1986 2001-2002 2008-2010 Forecast (Sep-09)Duration

Year

-to-

Year

% C

hang

e

Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

Jan MarMay Jul

Sep

Nov Jan MarMay Jul

Sep

Nov Jan MarMay Jul

Sep

Nov Jan Mar-9.0%

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During RecessionsYe

ar-t

o-Ye

ar %

Cha

nge

2007-2009

1980-1982

520,000 540,000 560,000 580,000 600,000 620,000 640,000 660,000 680,000

Jan-

07Ju

n-07

Nov

-07

Apr-

08Se

p-0

8Fe

b-0

9Ju

l-09

Dec-

09M

ay-1

0O

ct-1

0M

ar-1

1Au

g-11

Jan-

12Ju

n-12

Nov

-12

Apr-

13Se

p-1

3

Non

-farm

Jobs

Simulated Economic Expansion

Y-O-Y Gains

Pre-recession Levels near the end of 2013

or early 2014

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000Ja

n-07

Jun-

07N

ov-0

7Ap

r-08

Sep

-08

Feb

-09

Jul-0

9De

c-09

May

-10

Oct

-10

Mar

-11

Aug-

11Ja

n-12

Jun-

12N

ov-1

2Ap

r-13

Sep

-13

Non

-farm

Jobs

Simulated Economic Expansion -Construction

Y-O-Y Gains

Pre-recession levels at the earliest around 2025

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• Modeling an optimistic economic scenario purports year-over-year job increases in the fall of 2010 or spring of 2011.

• However, regaining all the jobs lost in the recent recession will not occur until late 2013 or early 2014.

• For industries like construction

pre-recession levels are not expected to be reached until the latter half of the next decade.

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What are the three major factors that will shape our work force, economy and quality of life in Idaho

21

Three major factors that will shape our work force, economy and quality of life in Idaho

• Population / In-migration

• The Great Demographic Shift

• Education and Training

#1 Shifting demographic - Aging baby boomers- Everyone is living longer

- Technology keeps us alive longer

#3 With longer lives come health problems (Healthcare Industry)

#4 Net in-migration made up of many retirees#5 Low cost of living#6 Competitive business costs

Factors driving healthcare and other industry and occupational growth

• Following the current recession employment in Idaho is projected to increase more than 15 percent over the next decade.

• If annual job replacements are also taken into account, job openings will rise to more than 28,000 annually.

Idaho’s Long-Term Employment Outlook

Pro Pro Pro Pro Pro Pro Pro Pro Pro Pro Pro 1,873 1,873 1.3% PhD PhD PhD PhD PhD PhD PhD PhD PhD PhD 1,285 3,158 2.2%

M M M M M M M M M 2,758 5,916 4.1% B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ 7,904 13,820 9.7% B B B B B B B 16,791 30,611 21.4% A A A A A A 7,048 37,659 26.3%

PVA PVA PVA PVA PVA 7,851 45,510 31.8% = "One in every three new jobs"

WE WE WE WE 12,598 58,108 40.6% LT LT LT 10,923 69,031 48.3% MT MT 29,541 98,572 68.9% = "Two in every three new jobs"

ST 44,427 142,999 ######

Educational Data Breaks for New Job Growth Over the Next Decade

DescriptorCumulative New Growth

Cumulative PercentCumulative Training Levels New

Growth

Education/Training Key: 1-PD - first professional; A - associate degree; B - bachelor's degree; B+ - bachelor's or higher degree plus work experience; LT- long-term on-the-job; M - master's degree; MT -moderate-term on-the-job training; PhD - doctoral degree; PVA - postsecondary vocational award; ST - short-term on-the-job training; WE - work experience in related occupation

Source: 2006-2016 Idaho Department of Labor Statewide Long-term Projections

20.8%

24.8%24.6%

13.1%

18.1%19.6%20.1%

12.5%

8.4%

15.2%15.8%

Percentage Growth In Jobs by Education 2008-2018

20.8%

24.8%24.6%

13.1%

18.1%19.6%20.1%

12.5%

8.4%

15.2%15.8%

Percentage Growth In Jobs by Education 2008-201830%

33%

37%

Frequency of the Jobs

UnskilledSkilledProfessional

Inverse Relationship between Education and Unemployment

$18

$10$9 $10

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Associate degree or Postsecondary vocational training

Bachelor's degree Master's degree or Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

First professional degree or Doctoral degree

Educations Return on Investment for Every Dollar InvestedIdaho Department of Labor – March 2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with an Advanced Degree (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with an Advanced Degree (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

Poly. (Idaho)

Poly. (WA)

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

It is estimated that 3.7% of the jobs in Idaho require an advanced degree or more. Direct gap comparisons require a perfect one-to-one match.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with a Bachelor's Degree or More (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with a Bachelor's Degree or More (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

Poly. (Idaho)

Poly. (CA)

Poly. (NV)

Poly. (UT)

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

It is estimated that 20.3% of the jobs in Idaho require a bachelor's degree or more. Direct ga p compa risons require a perfect one-to-one match.

37

431,866445,031524,873588,637667,191713,015

944,1271,006,749

1,293,953

1,600,000

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Population in Idaho

Demographic Shifts (Percentage Growth) Over the Next Decade in Idaho

Age 2008 Population 2019 Population Change % Change Nat LQ 2008 Nat LQ % ChangeUnder 5 years 123,751 133,732 9,981 8% 1.17 (1%)5 to 9 years 114,519 132,456 17,937 16% 1.12 4%10 to 14 years 109,467 128,495 19,028 17% 1.09 6%15 to 19 years 115,347 117,646 2,299 2% 1.06 3%20 to 24 years 113,813 109,317 (4,496) (4%) 1.06 (5%)25 to 29 years 110,906 106,985 (3,921) (4%) 1.03 (10%)30 to 34 years 95,328 113,207 17,879 19% 0.97 (2%)35 to 39 years 97,020 112,397 15,377 16% 0.93 9%40 to 44 years 94,390 102,494 8,104 9% 0.88 11%45 to 49 years 103,974 92,026 (11,948) (11%) 0.91 0%50 to 54 years 101,539 91,751 (9,788) (10%) 0.94 (7%)55 to 59 years 91,158 96,834 5,676 6% 0.98 (11%)60 to 64 years 74,521 96,017 21,496 29% 0.98 (5%)65 to 69 years 55,785 86,890 31,105 56% 0.98 3%70 to 74 years 41,763 68,923 27,160 65% 0.94 5%75 to 79 years 33,593 47,096 13,503 40% 0.91 9%80 to 84 years 26,100 29,954 3,854 15% 0.89 9%85 years and over 24,531 27,913 3,382 14% 0.90 (2%)

Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 1st Quarter 2011

State of Idaho

Aging Work Force

Age 2008 Population 2019 Population Change % Change Nat LQ 2008Nat LQ % ChangeUnder 5 years 5,852 6,023 171 3% 0.81 1%5 to 9 years 5,433 6,014 581 11% 0.78 6%10 to 14 years 5,664 6,084 420 7% 0.83 4%15 to 19 years 8,616 7,773 (843) (10%) 1.17 (3%)20 to 24 years 11,949 10,777 (1,172) (10%) 1.64 (4%)25 to 29 years 6,609 6,357 (252) (4%) 0.90 (4%)30 to 34 years 4,712 6,158 1,446 31% 0.71 14%35 to 39 years 5,653 5,839 186 3% 0.79 4%40 to 44 years 5,747 4,673 (1,074) (19%) 0.79 (11%)45 to 49 years 7,057 5,504 (1,553) (22%) 0.91 (7%)50 to 54 years 7,383 5,890 (1,493) (20%) 1.01 (13%)55 to 59 years 6,824 6,888 64 1% 1.08 (10%)60 to 64 years 5,854 7,435 1,581 27% 1.14 (1%)65 to 69 years 4,688 6,824 2,136 46% 1.21 2%70 to 74 years 3,612 5,682 2,070 57% 1.20 7%75 to 79 years 3,106 4,182 1,076 35% 1.23 12%80 to 84 years 2,529 2,848 319 13% 1.27 13%85 years and over 2,558 2,985 427 17% 1.38 7%

Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 1st Quarter 2011

North Central Idaho - Region 2

Aging Work Force

2005, 2007 and 2009

Single Coverage

What percent of employers offer health insurance to their employees*?

2007

63% Offered

2009

56% Offered

2005

74% Offered

*Full Time Employees Only

Median Pay is about $26.00 per hour in Boise MSA

Area name Annual median wage(2)Boise City-Nampa, ID 54920Coeur d'Alene ID 45620Idaho Falls ID 51230Lewiston ID-WA 53740Logan UT-ID 49680Pocatello ID 57420North Idaho nonmetropolitan area 53610Southwest Idaho nonmetropolitan area 37340Southcentral Idaho nonmetropolitan area 53560East Idaho nonmetropolitan area 58470

Occupation: Accountants and Auditors (SOC code 132011)Period: May 2010

(Accountants and Auditors 13-2011) - Examine, analyze, and interpret accounting records for the purpose of giving advice or preparing statements. Install or advise on systems of recording costs or other financial and budgetary data.

Area name Emp Hourly Mean Annual Mean Hourly Median Annual MedianPuerto Rico 9180 17.43 36250 15.22 31660Guam 570 18.98 39480 17.72 36860Virgin Islands 380 23.34 48540 21.54 44800Montana 2980 26.09 54260 22.96 47760North Dakota 2660 25.13 52270 23.49 48850Mississippi 4710 26.76 55660 23.86 49630Oklahoma 13700 26.86 55870 24.08 50090West Virginia 4160 28.76 59820 24.26 50460South Dakota 3970 26.02 54130 24.3 50540Arkansas 5130 26.69 55520 24.74 51450Kentucky 9660 26.97 56100 24.89 51780Kansas 10580 27.73 57680 25.38 52800Missouri 26300 28.84 59980 25.41 52860Louisiana 11710 27.6 57410 25.53 53100Tennessee 15970 28.25 58770 25.57 53190Idaho (16th Lowest) 2910 28.39 59050 25.84 53750

Occupation: Accountants and Auditors (SOC code 132011)Period: May 2010

Illinois 42820 34.12 70970 30.65 63740Rhode Island 3190 32.93 68500 30.71 63870Virginia 33990 34.88 72540 31.54 65600Connecticut 14880 35.21 73250 32.03 66620California 118550 35.75 74360 32.65 67910Maryland 22240 36.48 75870 32.71 68030Massachusetts 33290 36.07 75030 33.57 69820New Jersey 34130 38.28 79620 34.83 72440New York 91630 40.98 85230 36.17 75240District of Columbia 9910 40.57 84390 37.92 78880

Bottom 16 States

Top 10 States

Concentration

$$$$$$ Pay $$$$$$$

Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov

208.332.3570 ext-3217

Thanks for your time!