1. Paul Andrew Bourne [September 10, 2013]

2. The crime problem in Jamaica has resulted in heightened fear and victimization, so much so that it is the number one leading national problem. A cross-national probability survey which was conducted by Powell, Bourne and Waller (2007) found that 11 out of every 25 Jamaicans indicated that crime and violence was the leading national problem followed by unemployment (15 in every 50 Jamaicans) and education (3 in every 50 Jamaicans). 3. Beckers utility maximization crime framework expresses crime as a function of many variables. These are displayed in Equation [1], below: 4. y = f(x1, x2,, x3,x4, x5, x6 , x7).................... [1] where y = hours spent in criminal activities, x1 = wage for an hour spent in criminal activity, x2 = hourly wage in legal employment, x3 = income other than from crime or employment x4 = probability of getting caught, x5 = probability of being convicted if caught, x6 = expected sentence if convicted, and x7 = age 5. Bourne (2011) employed classical linear regression model to data in Jamaica on evaluating macroeconomic factors of violent crimes. He tested the hypothesis that violent crimes is influences by selected macroeconomic variables - (in Equation [2]) yt = f (pt, it, ut, ert, GDPt) + et . [2] where yt= number of violent crimes, pt is poverty, it is inflation, ut denotes unemployment, ert represents annual exchange rate, and et is the random error and t stands for 6. Year Murder Shooting Rape Carnal abuse Robbery Break-in Larceny Total Major Crimes 2000 63 110 29 11 117 46 43 419 2001 76 102 43 13 124 86 37 481 2002 82 96 34 4 128 32 26 402 2003 44 64 27 17 101 9 24 286 2004 45 85 31 11 69 42 21 304 2005 70 75 17 15 57 14 10 258 2006 58 51 22 8 60 17 7 223 2007 67 74 26 19 40 24 5 255 2008 71 74 28 20 57 13 11 274 2009 54 49 7 2 60 29 25 226 2010 30 35 23 11 71 60 26 256 2011 18 20 22 20 48 24 30 182 2012 29 44 18 20 76 19 22 228 TOTAL 707 879 327 171 1 008 415 287 3 794 7. Murder Shooting Rape Carnalabuse Robbery Break-in Larceny TotalMajorCrimes DailyMajorCrimes 2000 63 110 29 11 117 46 43 419 1.1 2001 76 102 43 13 124 86 37 481 1.3 2002 82 96 34 4 128 32 26 402 1.1 2003 44 64 27 17 101 9 24 286 0.8 2004 45 85 31 11 69 42 21 304 0.8 2005 70 75 17 15 57 14 10 258 0.7 2006 58 51 22 8 60 17 7 223 0.6 2007 67 74 26 19 40 24 5 255 0.7 2008 71 74 28 20 57 13 11 274 0.8 2009 54 49 7 2 60 29 25 226 0.6 2010 30 35 23 11 71 60 26 256 0.7 2011 18 20 22 20 48 24 30 182 0.5 2012 29 44 18 20 76 19 22 228 0.6 TOTAL 707 879 327 171 1008 415 287 3794 8. Murder Shooting Rape Carnal abuse Robbery Break-in Larceny 2000 0.15 0.26 0.07 0.03 0.28 0.11 0.10 2001 0.16 0.21 0.09 0.03 0.26 0.18 0.08 2002 0.20 0.24 0.08 0.01 0.32 0.08 0.06 2003 0.15 0.22 0.09 0.06 0.35 0.03 0.08 2004 0.15 0.28 0.10 0.04 0.23 0.14 0.07 2005 0.27 0.29 0.07 0.06 0.22 0.05 0.04 2006 0.26 0.23 0.10 0.04 0.27 0.08 0.03 2007 0.26 0.29 0.10 0.07 0.16 0.09 0.02 2008 0.26 0.27 0.10 0.07 0.21 0.05 0.04 2009 0.24 0.22 0.03 0.01 0.27 0.13 0.11 2010 0.12 0.14 0.09 0.04 0.28 0.23 0.10 2011 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.26 0.13 0.16 2012 0.13 0.19 0.08 0.09 0.33 0.08 0.10 TOTAL 0.19 0.23 0.09 0.05 0.27 0.11 0.08 9. Table 4: Pearsons Product Moment Correlations: Major Crimes in Kingston Central Police Division, Jamaica Murder Shooting Rape Carnal abuse Robbery Break In Larceny Murder Pearson Correlation 1 Sig. (2-tailed) N 13 Shooting Pearson Correlation 0.797 ** 1 Sig. (2-tailed) 0.001 N 13 13 Rape Pearson Correlation 0.411 0.654 * 1 Sig. (2-tailed) 0.163 0.015 N 13 13 13 Carnal abuse Pearson Correlation -0.319 -0.222 0.101 1 Sig. (2-tailed) 0.288 0.465 0.743 N 13 13 13 13 Robbery Pearson Correlation 0.373 0.644 * 0.632 * -0.348 1 Sig. (2-tailed) 0.210 0.018 0.021 0.244 N 13 13 13 13 13 Break In Pearson Correlation 0.119 0.350 0.554 * -0.284 0.496 1 Sig. (2-tailed) 0.699 0.241 0.050 0.347 0.084 N 13 13 13 13 13 13 Larceny Pearson Correlation -0.156 0.247 0.327 -0.219 0.698 ** 0.627 * 1 Sig. (2-tailed) 0.611 0.417 0.276 0.473 0.008 0.022 N 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). 10. Murder = + 1X1 + i Eqn [1.1] Murder = 43 + 0.605X1 i Eqn [1.2] Where 1 denotes the coefficient of variable X1 (i.e. shooting) 11. Shooting = + 1X1 + i Eqn [2.1] Shooting = -25 + 1.04X1 Eqn [2.2] Where 1 denotes the coefficient of variable X1 (i.e. murder) 12. Correlations Murder Unemployment_rate Exchange_rate Pearson Correlation Murder 1.000 -.549 -.544 Unemployment_rate -.549 1.000 .590 Exchange_rate -.544 .590 1.000 Sig. (1-tailed) Murder . .040 .042 Unemployment_rate .040 . .028 Exchange_rate .042 .028 . N Murder 11 11 11 Unemployment_rate 11 11 11 Exchange_rate 11 11 11 13. The major crimes committed in the Kingston Central Police Division display some dissimilarities to those in the Jamaica, and there have been increases in these in the Division since 2009 compared to the decline in major crimes for the nation The current findings provide invaluable insights into the matter of major crimes in Kingston Central Police Division, and these can be used to better police the Division 14. Thank You!