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TRANSCRIPT
Department of Atomic Energy
Arun
Srivastava Department of Atomic Energy, Mumbai
1-4 February 2010, IAEA, Vienna
Main driving factors for India’s long term nuclear energy
strategy
INPRO Dialogue Forum on Nuclear Energy Innovations
• Social and macroeconomic Factors
• Energy Resource Position
• Nuclear Energy Strategy
Presentation Outline
For the size and complexity of a country like India, which has
• 21 languages and cultures, • a history going back to 10,000 years, • 17% of the world population, • 2.2% of the land mass, • 2.4% of the world's GDP (i.e. 97.6% buying power outside
India) or 6.6% of the world’s GDP in PPP terms.• only 0.6% of the world's trade! (i.e. 99.4% of world trade is
outside India)
Aspiration to be among the top !!
India’s Macro Economic Indicators (March 2009)
Population about 1,112 Million
GDP 2008-09: US $ 1179.8 bn at current prices
Per capita GDP(PPP) (2005 est.) – US $3,400
GDP growth rate 2005-06 : 9.5%, 2006-07: 9.7%, 2007-08: 9% and 2008-09: 6.7% (provisional)
Composition of GDP 2008-09:Service: 57.3%Industry: 25.7%Agriculture : 17%
FDI 2008-09 : US $ 33.6 billion
Average literacy rate – 64.84%
Life expectancy for male: 63.87 yr female: 66.91 yr
• 3rd Largest GDP in PPP terms (after USA and China)
• 10th largest in GDP terms
• 4th in TPES (Mtoe) (after USA, China and Russian Federation)
• 5th in Electricity generation/consumption (after USA, China, Japan and Russian Federation)
• 111th in terms of Per capita electricity consumption
1123.32 771.09 4024.89 594.91 609.74 1324.05 3583 543 1.18
Population (million)
GDP (billion 2000 US$)
GDP (PPP)
(billion 2000 US$)
TPES (Mtoe)
Elec. Cons. (TWh)
CO 2 Emissio ns (Mt
of CO 2)
GDP (PPP) / Pop US$
Per capita Elec. Cons
(kWh)
Per capita CO2
Emission (te)
Source : IEA 2009 Key World Energy Statistics
India -
Select Indicators for 2007
Indian target Indian target -- in global contextin global context (Source of data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 for 1996 data and
IEA 2009 ‘Key World Energy Statistics’ for 2007 data)
1123 1013
640 630 564
803
4323
3279
573431 513550
847
3611
1081 989
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
USA China Japan Russia India Canada Germany France
Elec
tric
ity
Gen
erat
ion
(TW
h)
20071996
Target: 8000 TW(e)h ; 5000 kWh/Cap+ by 2050
13,616 kWh/Cap
2,328
8,475 6,338 543 16,995 7,185 7,573
Per cap. Elect. Cons. Vs GDP (PPP 2000 US$)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Per capita GDP(PPP US$)
Per c
apita
ele
ctric
ity c
onsu
mpt
ion-
kWh
Per capita Elec. Cons (kWh) Log. (Per capita Elec. Cons (kWh)) 7
IndiaChina
OECD
USA
India in 2050
Correlation between Electricity Consumption & GDP
Source: IEA 2009, Key World Energy Statistics
Department of Atomic Energy
Amount Electricity Potential¤
GWe-yr
Coal (Economically mineable)(Total Resource 255 BT)
98.2 –BT* 19,457
Hydrocarbon 12 –BT# 5,833
UraniumUranium--Metal Metal 61,000 61,000 --TT
-- In PHWRIn PHWR 320320
-- In Fast BreedersIn Fast Breeders 42,00042,000
ThoriumThorium--Metal Metal (In Breeders)(In Breeders) 2,25,000 2,25,000 ––TT 155,000155,000
Hydro 150 -GWe 69 GWe-yr / yr
Non-conv. Ren. 100 -GWe 33 GWe-yr / yr
¤ Assuming entire resource is used for generating electricity.
# Currently known resources (including coal bed methane) are 3 BT. However, MP&NG has set a target of locating at least 12 BT as per Vision Hydrocarbon-2025.
IndiaIndia’’s Energy Resource Bases Energy Resource Base
Ref: Integrated Energy Policy, Dec 2005, p39
Renewal Energy Resources
Department of Atomic Energy
Energy Development Policy
Consume as much as possible the non- carbon energy (Full Hydro potential by 2025, ~50% Non-conventional potential by 2020 and balance by 2050)
Energy - Imports as low as possible (restrict to present level of ~30%)
Energy conservation and efficiency emphasis
Social Dimension – Provide for minimum basic commercial energy need to even the lowest economic group
Department of Atomic Energy
1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2006-07
Domestic production of Commercial Energy
36.78 47.67 75.19 150.01 207.08 259.56
Net Imports 6.04 12.66 24.63 31.07 89.03 131.07
Total Commercial Energy
42.82 60.33 99.82 181.08 296.11 391.53
Non- Commercial Energy
74.38 86.72 108.48 122.07 136.64 147.56
Total Primary Energy
117.20 147.05 208.3 303.15 432.75 539.09
Non-C E as % of TPE
63.64% 58.97% 52.08% 40.27% 31.57% 27.37%
Import as % of TCE
14.11% 20.98% 24.67% 17.16% 30.07% 33.48%
Trends in Demand and Supply of Primary Commercial Energy (in Mtoe)
Source: Draft report of the Steering Committee on Energy for the XI five year plan (2007-12)
Non-Commercial Energy: fuel wood, crop residue, cow dung, biogas etc
Department of Atomic Energy
Tools Used• MESSAGE: Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives
and their General Environmental Impacts- Optimisation study on use of resources
- Developing scenarios
• DESAE: Dynamics of Energy System – Atomic Energy - Quantitative assessment of nuclear energy
systems.
• ISED: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development - Social, Economic & Environmental- Energy & Development- Import independence- Resource diversity (fuel type, region &
country)
Assumptions on Socio-Economic Development and Energy Demand
Assumptions on Technical and
Economic Parameters for
Various Technologies
Assumptions on Energy Resource Availability, Costs
and Possibilities for Imports
MESSAGE
NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
Import Dependence, Environmental Impacts,
etc.
DESAE
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power
Projections
Investments, Costs and Resource Needs
Department of Atomic Energy
Scenarios for Total Installed Power Capacity in India
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
GW
e
DAE PC_GDP-Growth 8% PC_GDP-Growth 9%
(DAE-2004 and Planning Commission-2006 studies)
15
Three Stage Indian Nuclear Programme
U fueledPHWRs
Pu FueledFast Breeders
Nat. U
Dep. U
Pu
Th
Th
U233 FueledReactors
Pu
U233
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Stage 1Stage 1 Stage 2Stage 2 Stage 3Stage 3
PHWR FBTR AHWR
Thorium in the centre stage
Power generation primarily by PHWRBuilding fissile inventory for stage 2
Expanding power programmeBuilding U233 inventory
Thorium utilisation forSustainable power programme
U233
320 GWe-Year42000 GWe-Year
155000 GWe-Year
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (G
We)
Year2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
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700
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1100
1200
1300
1400
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (G
We)
Year2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
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700
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900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (G
We)
Year
Strategies for long-term energy security
Hydroelectric
Non-conventional
Coal domestic
Hydrocarbon
Nuclear (Domestic 3-stage programme)Projected
requirement*
*Ref: “A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in India”, document 10, August 2004, DAE
No imported reactor/fuelNo imported reactor/fuel
Deficit to be filled by fossil fuel / LWR imports LWR (Imported)
FBR using spent fuel from LWR
LWR import: 40 LWR import: 40 GWeGWe Period: 2012Period: 2012--20202020LWR import: 40 LWR import: 40 GWeGWe Period: 2022Period: 2022--20302030
Deficit 412 GWe
Required coal import:Required coal import:1.6 billion 1.6 billion tonnetonne** in 2050in 2050
** -- Assuming 4200 kcal/kgAssuming 4200 kcal/kg
Deficit 7 GWe
The deficit is practically The deficit is practically wiped out in 2050wiped out in 2050
Deficit 178 GWe
Required coal import:Required coal import:0.7 billion 0.7 billion tonnetonne** in 2050in 2050
Strategies for optimum use of domestic nuclear resources
1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 20700
100
200
300
400
500
600
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (
GW
e)
Year
Indian PWHRs (700
MWe)
Global range
Capital Cost $/kWe 1700 2000-2500
Construction period 5-6 years 5-6 years
UEC $/MWh 60 60 - 70* Completion cost + 2008 Prices
KAPS – 1 adjudged the best performing PHWR in the world for the period October 2001 to September 2002.
In 2003 and 2007, two senior Indian operators of Nuclear Power Stations, received the WANO excellence award.
“At the end of 2002 average annual CANDU/PHWR performance continued to show a gradual improvement, led by the units of NPCIL (India)…” “The NPCIL PHWRs showed a major improvement in GCF in 2002, exceeding US light water reactor performance by almost 1%…” - Brian MacTavish, President, COG
1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 20700
100
200
300
400
500
600
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (
GW
e)
Year
1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 20700
100
200
300
400
500
600
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (
GW
e)
Year
Results for a scenario with current domestic Uranium resources and assuming short doubling time FBRs from 2021
Power profile of PHWR programme
Growth with Pu-U FBRs
Detailed calculations have shown that thorium can be deployed on a large scale about 3 decades after introduction of FBRs with short doubling time
Growth with Pu-U FBRs
PFBR (500 MWe)
Project sanctioned in 2003
Further development being pursued to reduce doubling time and UEC
Russia is the only other country with a larger FBR under construction /operation
Construction site with Safety Vessel under erection
TAPS 3 – 4 (540 MWe each)
NPCIL is a AAA (CRISIL) rated company for ten years in a row.
Capital cost (Rs/kWe)
69840
UEC (Rs/kWh) 3.22
Construction period
7 years
Further growth with thorium
Further growth with thorium
AHWR – A 300 MWe technology demonstrator to -
1.Enhance scale of operation of thorium
2.Demonstrate realisation of objectives of 4th
generation reactor systems right now
- is ready for launch of construction
1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 20550
25
50
75In
stal
led
Capa
city
(G
We)
Year
Growth with Pu-U FBRs
Best effort use of Pu with Th in PHWRs and MSRs
PHWR(Nat U)
Peaks at 36 GWe
only
Premature introduction of thorium hampers the growth
Advanced Energy Technologies: Thorium and beyond
New technology• Metallic fuel• Molten salt
• Liquid heavy metal• High power accelerators
• High temperature materials• Hydrogen production• Hydrogen utilisation
• Fusion
Deliverables• Short doubling time FBR
• ADS for isotope production• ADS for power production
• Compact high temperature reactor• IHTR (for commercial H2
production)
• ITER
Spin-offsSolar towerDesalinationFuel cells
Department of Atomic Energy
Department of Atomic Energy
Concluding Remarks
Energy as well as electricity consumption per capita has to increase to ensure continued high GDP growth.
Augment energy resources and supply in a sustainable manner. Non-fossil resources needs to be augmented.
Reduce energy requirement through energy efficiency and conservation. Reduce T&D losses
Encourage renewable and local solutions
Enhance energy security (Nuclear power)
Promote adaptation of clean coal technologies for future power plants
Decrease in non-commercial use in Rural areas by providing cleaner energy options to them thereby reduce health related problems
Rural economy needs to be strengthened so as to increase the affordability of rural people and arrest the migration from rural to urban areas.
Department of Atomic Energy
Thank You