maersk oil - delivery today, growth tomorrow

39
DELIVERY TODAY, GROWTH TOMORROW Maersk Oil, Capital Markets Day, 24 September 2014

Upload: christer-hansen

Post on 08-Jul-2015

417 views

Category:

Business


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Presentation from Maersk Oil's recent Capital Markets Day

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

DELIVERY TODAY, GROWTH TOMORROW Maersk Oil, Capital Markets Day, 24 September 2014

Page 2: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Legal notice This presentation contains certain forward looking statements (all statements that are not entirely based on historical facts, among others expectations to future financial performance, developments, resources growth and production levels). Those forward looking statements reflect current views on future events and are by their nature subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. We consider such forward looking statements reasonable based on the information available to us at this time, but the actual results etc. may differ materially from our expectations because of external factors as well as changes to APMM’s goals and strategy. Thus, no undue reliance should be placed on such statements. Neither APMM, nor any other person, shall assume responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the forward looking statements and do not undertake any obligation to update such statements except as required by law. This Legal Notice shall be governed by Danish Law. Any dispute arising out of or in relation to this Legal Notice which can not be solved amicably shall be decided by the Danish Courts.

page 2

Page 3: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Jakob Thomasen Chief Executive Officer

Today’s speakers

Graham Talbot Chief Financial Officer

Gretchen H. Watkins Chief Operating Officer

page 3

Page 4: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Production growth has returned

Ambition of value creating production growth to 2020 remains; ROIC >10%

Significant reserves additions over the next 2-3 years as projects are sanctioned

6% 300 mmboe 400,000 boepd

Maersk Oil - On track

page 4

Page 5: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Maersk Oil – A Top 30 oil company

Gross production by operator, 2013 (‘000 boepd)

Note: Data from Wood Mackenzie. National Oil Companies are not included.

Maersk Oil at a glance

• 4,000 employees

• ~350 licences , incl. ~150 operated

• Active in 11 countries

• Entitlement production (2013): 235,000 boepd

• Headquartered in Copenhagen

• Wholly-owned subsidiary of APMM

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

Super Majors

Midsize companies

Majors

page 5

Page 6: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

The headlines • Maersk Oil delivers solid financial results

• Delivery of major projects in line with expectations

• Positive discussions for next stage development and licence renewal in Qatar

• Exploration performance is challenged

• Impairment against Brazilian oil assets

• Growth strategy rooted in core capabilities

page 6

Page 7: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Changed market dynamics since 2012 present both challenges and opportunities for Maersk Oil

Safe and reliable Operations

Delivering profitable projects

Exploration & Acquisition

Securing value in a challenging market

Maximising near-term business value; optimising production operations and asset integrity

NEAR-TERM BUSINESS VALUE

OUR THREE PILLARS

PROFITABLE GROWTH

MARKET DYNAMICS

page 7

Page 8: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

MARKET DYNAMICS

The Al Shaheen field, Qatar

page 8

Page 9: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Industry Response

Market dynamics The fundamental underlying change

• Softening mid-term oil price outlook

• Capital expenditure increasing; returns declining

• Price correction expected for oil field services

• Boom in US unconventionals

• Increasing importance of gas

• Capital discipline

• Portfolio rationalisation

• Focus

• Cancelled or postponed projects

• Continued retreat to US onshore

• Focus on LNG (East Africa, etc.)

Trends

page 9

Page 10: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Increasing Capex and declining returns among peers

Annual upstream Capex1) (USD billion, 2005-13)

Annual Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)2) (2005-13)

25

31 31

46

33

56 60

65

58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) Sum of upstream Capex for Maersk Oil’s Peer Group (Anadarko, Apache, BG, Hess, Marathon, Murphy, Noble, Occidental, Talisman) 2) Average ROIC for Peer Group Source: Evaluate Energy

23 21

18 20

5

10 8 8

7

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

+11% CAGR 3x lower

page 10

Page 11: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

More Capex for less production

Major oil companies production and upstream investment 2002-131) Capex in FY, USD billion

Source: Evaluate Energy 1) Oil companies included: BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ENI, ExxonMobil, Shell, Statoil, Total

0

50

100

150

200

250

19 20 21 22 23 24

FY 2013

12 11

08

09

10

07 06

04

05 03 FY 2002

Cumulative CAPEX FY 2002 - FY 2013 = USD 1.4 trillion

mmboed production

page 11

Page 12: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Significant change as industry responds

Divestments

“Apache has committed to completely exit its two LNG projects, and review its international portfolio”

Wood Mackenzie, September 2014

“Anadarko sells Mozambique gas to reinvest in American oil”

Forbes, August 2013

“Statoil has sold a further tranche of North Sea oil and gas assets to Wintershall for $1.25bn”

Financial Times, September 2014

Capital Discipline

“Statoil became the latest of the western majors to promise greater capital discipline”

Financial Times, February 2014

“Oil majors like Total and Chevron are now prepared to ditch or delay costly megaprojects”

New York Times, June 2013

“Experts say the issue of capital discipline has become pivotal to any assessment of the sector”

Financial Times, November 2013

page 12

Page 13: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Maersk Oil advantaged by:

• Consistent financial performance

• Robust and diverse portfolio

• Dominated by low cost barrels

• Material growth through existing projects

• Technical ability to unlock future potential

• Skilled and demographically advantaged international workforce

Well positioned for growth – focused on value, not just volume

The Dunga field, Kazakhstan

page 13

Page 14: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

NEAR-TERM BUSINESS VALUE

Graham Talbot Chief Financial Officer

The Skjold platform, Danish North Sea

page 14

Page 15: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Maersk Oil’s financial ambitions remain intact

Value creating growth to 400,000 boepd by 2020

Reduced exploration expenditures during portfolio rebuild

Development Capex within investment range of USD 3-5 billion annually

Sustain ROIC at a double digit level through the growth cycle

A robust resource base – focus on maturing resources to production

page 15

Page 16: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Value creating growth to 400,000 boepd by 2020 Total production bottomed out at 226,000 boepd in Q2 2013

Entitlement production (´000 boepd)

428 377

333

257 235

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2012 2013 2014E 2020 2009 2010 2011

>240

page 16

Page 17: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Maersk Oil delivers solid financial results Underlying profit stabilising around USD ~1 billion per year during growth phase

Underlying segment result after tax (USD million)

1) H1 2014 adjustments incl. Brazil impairment

1.368 1.561

2.121

1.358

980 1.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

-204 98 -9 1,086 66 -1,828 1) Impairments & other one-offs

~

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

page 17

Page 18: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Continued strong cash flow Will be utilised to fund Maersk Oil’s portfolio of growth projects

Cash flow from operating activities (USD million)

• 2009-2013 total cash flow from operations after exploration costs of USD ~19 billion

• Total investments of USD ~12 billion – USD ~8.5 billion for development Capex and USD ~3.5 billion for acquisitions

• Generating net cash flow of USD 6.8 billion over the past five years

• Development Capex increasing towards USD 3-5 billion/year with maturing major projects

2,232

1,277 1,326 1,757 1,670

685

2,462 840

1,992

577

1,898 1,446

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) Average Oil price (USD/bbl) 2) Production level (‘000 bpd)

Oil Price1) 62 80 111 112 109

Production2) 428 377 333 257 235

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

3,191

3,954 4,365

3,857

3,246

Net Cash Flow Acquisitions Development Capex

page 18

Page 19: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

ROIC to remain at a double digit level Continued cost efficient operations will be the driver through the growth cycle

Maersk Oil ROIC (%) Industry ROIC (%, 3 year avg. 2011-2013)

Note: Peer group data based on Evaluate Energy information

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Maers

k O

il

O

ccid

enta

l

H

ess

M

urp

hy

BG

Gro

up

M

ara

thon

Apache

N

oble

Anadark

o

Talism

an

23%

33% 37% 36%

16% 19%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q22014

20201)

-97%

1) Underlying Q2 2014 ROIC excl. Brazil impairment. 2020 ROIC target based on oil price assumption of USD 100/bbl.

Target >10%

40

30

20

10

0

-100

page 19

Page 20: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Building our reserves and resources (million boe) End 2013 End 2012

Proved reserves (1P) 392 410

Probable reserves (2Pincrement) 207 209

Proved and Probable reserves (2P) 599 619

Contingent resources (2C) 874 740

Reserves & resources (2P + 2C) 1,473 1,359

2013 Highlights

• 1P reserves replacement ratio increased to 79% with 86 million barrels entitlement production (2012: 65%)

• 2P + 2C reserves and resources increased 8%

• Post-2017 Qatar reserves and resources not included

3D seismic relief map, North Sea

page 20

Page 21: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Solid financial delivery during the growth phase

• Material growth through existing projects

• Consistent contribution to Group results

• Maintain double digit ROIC

• Increased focus on cost and efficiency

The El Merk facility, Algeria

page 21

Page 22: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

OUR THREE PILLARS

Gretchen H. Watkins Chief Operating Officer

page 22

Page 23: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

The three pillars of our business

SAFETY – INCIDENT FREE

TECHNOLOGY

PEOPLE AND LEADERSHIP

Short-term delivery:

OPERATIONS EXCELLENCE Medium-term growth:

PROJECT DELIVERY Long-term growth:

EXPLORATION & ACQUISITION

page 23

Page 24: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Our portfolio of assets

Exploration Production Projects

Entitlement Production 2013 (’000 boepd) Total: 235

Algeria 28

Denmark 70

Qatar 99

UK 30

Kazakhstan 3 Brazil 5

page 24

Page 25: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

An evolving portfolio - Maersk Oil Entitlement Production, 2013 and 2020

Hydrocarbon type (%) Location (%) Operatorship (%) OECD/non-OECD (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2020

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2020

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2020

Note: Future production excludes contributions from Exploration portfolio

Operations Excellence

Oil Gas

Deepwater Shallow water Onshore

Operated Operated by others

OECD Non-OECD

page 25

Page 26: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Realising untapped value from late life assets

Production gains from Operations Excellence

Danish Business Unit, Gross oil production (‘000 boepd)

Shutdown performance within target range

Entire Portfolio, Performance index (YTD 2014)

Protect the base and improve recovery through production optimisation and well work-over campaigns

Operations Excellence gains in 2013-14

Excellence in execution of planned integrity programs to preserve assets for the future

101 98 95

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Duration Adherence to Scope

Entitlement production losses

Target range

Operations Excellence

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mid 2014

2013

30%

page 26

Page 27: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Safe and reliable operations

Maersk Oil safety performance Lost Time Injury Frequency (LTIF)

- per million working hours

• Reduced personal injuries over the last 5 years, but the journey to incident free continues

• Reducing process safety risks through focused 5-year plans

• Environmental agenda has led to 80% CO2 reduction from flaring since 2007

2.2

1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

Operations Excellence

page 27

Page 28: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Maersk Oil’s project portfolio

1) Based on careful analysis and evaluation, both technical and commercial, Maersk Oil has decided to terminate the Ockley project. 2) Development of oil resources in the Greater Gryphon Area (Quad 9) before initiating the Gas Blowdown project in the area

>100 mmboe 50-100 mmboe <50 mmboe

Bubble size indicates estimate of net resources:

Primarily oil Primarily gas Discoveries and prospects (Size of bubbles do not reflect volumes)

Colour indicates resource type:

Progress of key projects since CMD October 2012

Project Delivery

Initiate & Discoveries Assess Select Define Execute Assets

Project Maturation Process Exploration

75

Prospects in the pipeline

10 33 11 11 16

Production Reserves Resources

Total no. of projects per phase

Total of 75 exploration prospects and leads in the exploration pipeline

Golden Eagle Johan Sverdrup

Swara Tika

Courageous

Flyndre & Cawdor

Greater Gryphon Area 2)

Culzean

Jackdaw

Wahoo

Itaipu

Tyra Future

Tyra SE

Zidane Ockley1)

Valdemar WI

Jack II

Al Shaheen FDP 2012

UK

Algeria

Chissonga

Denmark

Kazakhstan

Qatar

Dunga III

Buckskin

Farsund Jack I

Uncertainty

page 28

Page 29: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Portfolio of projects to deliver growth >10% ROIC

Entitlement Production (´000 boepd)

1) Operated by Maersk Oil Note: Existing fields decline is net of work programmes to increase well potential

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2013 ChissongaAngola

CulzeanUK

Johan SverdrupNorway

Golden EagleUK

JackUSA

Tyra SE OtherProjects

Existingfields

decline

20201) 1)

1)

235

400

Project Delivery

page 29

Page 30: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Projects in Execute - First Oil 2014/2015

Tyra Southeast, Denmark

• Operated by Maersk Oil (31.2%)

• Co-venturers are Shell (36.8%),

Nordsoefonden (20%) and

Chevron (12%)

• Net plateau production is estimated

at 4,000 boepd

• Net Capex USD 0.3 billion

Jack, USA

• Operated by Chevron (50%)

• Co-venturers are Maersk Oil (25%)

and Statoil (25%)

• Net plateau production is estimated

at 8,000 boepd

• Net Capex USD 0.7 billion 1)

Golden Eagle, United Kingdom • Operated by Nexen (36.54%)

• Co-venturers are Maersk Oil

(31.56%), Suncor Energy (26.69%)

and Edinburgh Oil & Gas (5.21%)

• Net plateau production is

estimated at 20,000 boepd

• Net Capex USD 1.1 billion

Project Delivery

1) Phase 1 Maersk Oil estimate

page 30

Page 31: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Projects in Define - Sanction in 2014/2015

Johan Sverdrup, Norway • Operated by Statoil (pre-unit operator

for all three licenses covering PL265,

PL501 and PL502)

• PL501 operator is Lundin (40%), with

co-venturers Maersk Oil (20%) and

Statoil (40%)

• Net plateau production is estimated at

50-70,000 boepd

• Net Capex (phase 1): USD 2.0 billion1)

Culzean, United Kingdom

• Operated by Maersk Oil (49.99%)

• Co-venturers are JP Nippon

(34.01%) and BP (16%)

• Net plateau production is

estimated at 30-45,000 boepd

• Net Capex USD 3.0 billion

Chissonga, Angola

• Operated by Maersk Oil (65%)

• Co-venturers are Sonangol P&P

(20%) and Odebrecht (15%)

• Development plan submitted to the

authorities, awaiting approval and

project sanction

• Tender process ongoing

1) Estimates based on concept selection in Q1 2014 for phase 1

Project Delivery

page 31

Page 32: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Exploration & Acquisition Building long-term value

Increased costs and fewer commercial discoveries have led to:

• Full review of exploration portfolio

• Reduced 2014 exploration spend while in review

• Rebuilding portfolio for long-term growth through exploration and acquisitions

Exploration & Acquisition

3D salt bodies, Angola

page 32

Page 33: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

The three pillars of our business

• An evolving portfolio

• Production gains of 30% in the Danish North Sea

• Shutdown performance with in target range

• Material growth through existing projects

• Projects progressing on schedule

• Sharp focus on value delivery

• Exploration performance is challenged

• Unit finding costs have increased

• Exploration excellence programme launched

Short-term delivery:

OPERATIONS EXCELLENCE Medium-term growth:

PROJECT DELIVERY Long-term growth:

EXPLORATION & ACQUISITION

page 33

Page 34: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

PROFITABLE GROWTH

Jakob Thomasen Chief Executive Officer

page 34

Page 35: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

LEVERAGE CAPABILITIES FOR GROWTH

• Subsurface resolution

• Well solutions

• Technology deployment

• Solid project delivery

STRENGTHEN EXISTING POSITIONS

• Sustained materiality

• Organic and inorganic growth

• Preference to operate

MAXIMISE VALUE FROM HERITAGE ASSETS

• Top quartile operational performance

• Qatar renewal

• Maximise value - short and long-term value

A strategy built on Maersk Oil’s capabilities

page 35

Page 36: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Maersk Oil’s portfolio priorities

MAXIMISE VALUE FROM HERITAGE ASSETS

• Denmark

• Qatar

• UK

• Algeria

STRENGTHEN EXISTING POSITIONS

• Norway

• Kazakhstan

• Iraqi Kurdistan

• Angola

MANAGE FOR VALUE

• Brazil

• US Gulf of Mexico

• Greenland

page 36

Page 37: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Near-term strategic actions

• Focus

• Capital discipline

• De-risking ultra-deep water

• Capital risk management

• Positioning for long-term growth The Al Shaheen field, Qatar

page 37

Page 38: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Production growth has returned

Ambition of value creating production growth to 2020 remains; ROIC >10%

Significant reserves additions over the next 2-3 years as projects are sanctioned

6% 300 mmboe 400,000 boepd

A great deal achieved, much more to do page 38

Page 39: Maersk Oil - Delivery Today, Growth Tomorrow

Thank you