madhucon projects result updated

7/31/2019 Madhucon Projects Result Updated

1/14

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Operating profit 51 63 53 (18.5) (3.2)

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2012, Madhucon Projects (MPL) reported a mixed set of numbers

with revenue coming below our expectations; however, higher EBITDAM and

other income resulted in in-line earnings performance. MPLs order book,

which is witnessing good traction, stands tall at ~`

7,700cr (4.3x FY2012revenue), providing good visibility for the next couple of years. However, we are

revising our numbers for FY2013 and FY2014 to factor in the companys

4QFY2012 performance.

On the top-line front, MPL posted a disappointing

performance, with a yoy/qoq decline of 27.1%/30.8% to `432cr, much below

our expectation of `659cr. EBITDAM came in at 11.8%, posting a jump of

120bp/340bp on a yoy/qoq basis, against our expectation of 9.2%. EBITDAM

came in ahead of our expectation, owing to higher revenue contribution from

the power project. Interest cost stood at `27cr, a jump of 9.5% yoy, but a

decline of 9.8% on a sequential basis. On the earnings front, the company

posted a decline of 22.5% yoy to `15cr, in-line with our expectation of `14cr,

despite higher tax rate (38.2%) on the back of higher EBITDAM and other

income (`14cr).

MPL has an equity

requirement of ~`570cr for its BOT road projects. We believe key triggers to

watch out for MPL should be pick-up in execution in the development business

and raising money for the same. Hence, we believe until then the stock would be

a sector performer and real value would be created only on unlocking at the

subsidiary level.

Key financials (Standalone)

% chg 30.8 (0.7) 22.4 13.4

% chg (10.2) (11.2) (5.9) 0.8

EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 11.3 10.7 10.7

P/E (x) 8.2 9.3 9.8 9.8

RoAE (%) 6.9 5.8 5.2 5.0

RoACE (%) 10.1 9.5 8.6 8.3P/BV (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 7.0 6.8 6.6


CMP `47

Target Price `70

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 57.8

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 22.4

FII / NRIs / OCBs 9.4

Indian Public / Others 10.4

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (11.7) (12.6) 12.2

MPL (34.2) (57.0) (3.7)

Face Value (`)

BSE SensexNifty

Reuters Code

337

0.8

108/45

8,225

Infrastructure

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

1

16,0304,858

MAPR.BO

MDHPJ@IN

022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Performance Highlights

4QFY2012 Result Update | Infrastructure

May 16, 2012


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Madhucon Projects | 4QFY2012 Result Update

May 14, 2012 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)

Total expenditure 381 531 572 (28.2) (33.4) 1598.4 1520 5.2

OPM (%) 11.8 10.6 8.4 120bp 340bp 11.3 10.9 40bp

Interest 27 25 30 9.5 (9.8) 109 62 76.6

Depreciation 14 12 12 20.3 19.2 51 47 7.8

Non operating income 14 3 2 320.7 818.6 17 5 225.7

Nonrecurring items - - - - - - - -

Tax 9 10 5 (10.6) 84.8 25 30 (18.1)

PAT (%) 3.5 3.3 1.2 20bp 230bp 2.0 3.0 (100)bp


Exhibit 2:4QFY2012 Actual vs. Estimates

Net Sales 659 432 (34.4)

EBITDA 61 51 (15.8)

Interest 30 27 (9.8)

PAT 14 15 7.2



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May 14, 2012 3

Revenue growth loses momentum

After 3QFY2012s stunning performance of 77.5% yoy growth, MPL posted a

disappointing performance in 4QFY2012 on the revenue front, with a yoy/qoqdecline of 27.1%/30.8% to `432cr, much below our expectation of `659cr.

On the BOT front, four operational projects witnessed toll

collection of `42lakhs-46lakhs/day, which is broadly in-line with our estimate.

Further, management is expecting toll collections to improve for Madurai Tuticorin

project in the next few quarters.

MPL has achieved 25% completion for the Chhapra

Hazipur project. Further, MPL has achieved financial closure (FC) for Barasat

Krishnagar and Ranchi Rargon Jamshedpur projects. However, for the two recently

won road projects Vijayawada Machilipatnam and Rajauli Bakhtiyarpur the

company is yet to achieve FC.

Exhibit 3:Revenue growth falters

38.8

18.8

4.9

23.3

49.243.0

38.025.6 22.0

(19.2)

18.3

77.5

(27.1)

(40.0)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

-

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)


EBITDAM better, earnings aided by other income

EBITDAM came in at 11.8%, posting a jump of 120bp/340bp on a yoy/qoq

basis, against our expectation of 9.2%. EBITDAM came in ahead of our

expectation owing to higher revenue contribution from the power project.Interest cost stood at `27cr, a jump of 9.5% yoy, but a decline of 9.8% on a

sequential basis. On the earnings front, the company posted a decline of

22.5% yoy to `15cr, in-line with our expectation of `14cr, despite higher tax

rate (38.2%) on the back of higher EBITDAM and other income (`14cr).


4/14


May 14, 2012 4

Exhibit 4:Erratic performance on the EBIDTAM front

7.4

12.511.2

12.4

6.4

10.79.7

12.7

10.6

14.113.0

8.4

11.8

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)


Exhibit 5:EBITDAM and other inc. pull PATM upwards

2.4

4.6 4.7

3.9

1.4

3.3

1.9

3.3 3.3

2.4

1.51.2

3.5

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.03.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)


MPL has

invested heavily in its asset-owning business for the past few years, resulting in

increased debt levels.

The only savior could be access to capital markets, which is under the initial stages

of planning, via IPO/stake sale etc. We have highlighted before as well in our

notes that increasing debt levels and the resulting increase in interest outlay are

eating away profits from the standalone business. Therefore, we believe early

raising of funds is the key catalyst for the stocks performance going ahead.

Exhibit 6:Interest cost on a declining trend

22.4

108.0

(33.0)

51.9

15.1

31.0

13.3

31.9 27.2

5.9

53.8

(6.4) (9.8)

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

4QFY0

9

1QFY1

0

2QFY1

0

3QFY1

0

4QFY1

0

1QFY1

1

2QFY1

1

3QFY1

1

4QFY1

1

1QFY1

2

2QFY1

2

3QFY1

2

4QFY1

2

Interst cost (` cr, LHS) qoq growth


Exhibit 7:Rising debt levels with no respite in sight

0.2

0.4

0.8

1.1

1.7

1.92.0

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E

Inc rea se in Investments WC cy cle (ex -c ash) (day s) Net deb t to equity



5/14


May 14, 2012 5

Order book analysis

MPLs order book, as of 4QFY2012, stood at ~`7,700cr (4.3x FY2012 revenue),

which is dominated by the roads (61.2%) and irrigation (19.8%) segments. The

balance was contributed by the power, real estate and mining and other segments.

Exhibit 8:Segment wise order book break-up (` cr)


Key developments

Simhapuri Energy (100% subsidiary of Madhucon Projects Ltd.) is developingthe 1,920MW Simhapuri project in three phases. The first phase and second

phase have two units of 150MW each and the third phase has two units of

660MW. TPC of the project is `11,270cr and is based on imported coal. The

company declared the commercial operations of the 150MW unit on

May 4, 2012, and expects to add another unit by June 2012. The company

expects to complete the implementation of the second phase of 300MW in

FY2013.

MPL has been chosen as the preferred bidder for a 300MW (TPC `2,000cr)

thermal power project in Indonesia for 25 years on BOT basis; the plant is

located at a distance of 4kms from its existing coal reserves site. Further, on

May 1, 2012, MPL's subsidiary entered into a power purchase agreement with

PTPLN of Indonesian government to supply power to PLN for 25 years.


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May 14, 2012 6

Outlook and valuation

We believe the key triggers to watch out for MPL should be the pick-up in execution

in the development business and building of an attractive asset portfolio to raise

money. Hence, we believe until then the stock would be a sector performer and

real value would be created only on unlocking at the subsidiary level.

We have valued MPL at 3040% discount to its larger peers, given its scale of

operations, high leverage on the balance sheet, consistent delays in expansion

plans and high dependence on captive orders for its core construction growth.

Based on the SOTP methodology, we have assigned P/E of 4x on FY2014E

earnings (`18.7/share) and valued the BOT projects on NPV basis (`37.8/share)

and other investments in Madhucon Infra and the real estate venture on BV basis

(`12.0/share and `2.0/share, respectively).

Exhibit 9:Derivation of SOTP-based target price for MPL (FY2014E)

Agra Jaipur NPV CoE -14%, Traffic and Toll increase 4% and 5% respectively 198.9 26.9 38.2

TN (DK) Exp NPV CoE -14%, Traffic and Toll increase 3% and 3% respectively 38.1 5.1 7.3

Trichy Thanjavur NPV CoE -14%, Traffic and Toll increase 4% and 5% respectively (22.0) (3.0) (4.2)

Madhurai Tuticorin NPV CoE -14%, Traffic and Toll increase 3% and 4% respectively 64.7 8.7 12.4Simhapuri Energy Investment 0.5x of investments 132.3 8.9 12.7

Coal Venture Investment 0.5x of investments 22.5 3.0 4.3


Exhibit 10:Change in estimates to factor in performance of 4QFY2012

Revenue (`cr) 2,503 2,206 (11.8) 2,903 2,502 (13.8)

EBITDA margin (%) 10.7 10.7 - 10.7 10.7 -

PAT (`cr) 43 34 (20.1) 48 35 (28.6)



7/14


May 14, 2012 7

Exhibit 11:BOT We have been conservative in our estimates, given the assets have not witnessed traffic flowas expected and are marred by delays, which are impacting the IRRs of the projects

Type Toll Toll Toll Toll

Status Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper.

KM 57 73 56 126

Issuing Auth. NHAI NHAI NHAI NHAI

State Rajasthan TN Pondicherry & TN TN

Concession (yrs.) 25 20 20 20

CoD May-09 Nov-09 May-11 Jul-11

TPC (`cr) 326.7 375.5 390.0 920.0

Debt (`cr) 198.5 224.0 260.4 594.4

Equity (`cr) 99.4 74.7 64.7 173.7

Grant (upfront and maintenance) (`cr) 96.0 86.0 78.4 143.9

Expected traffic growth (%) 6.0 3.0 4.0 3.0

Expected toll inc (%) 5.0 3.0 5.0 4.0

Interest rate (%) 11.5 9.8 9.8 9.8

NPV (`cr) 261.2 56.5 (21.7) 57.5

Implied P/BV FY13E 2.0 0.4 (0.2) 0.2



8/14


May 14, 2012 8

Investment arguments

As of 4QFY2012,

MPL has an order book of ~`7,700cr, spread across the power, highway andirrigation segments. In recent times, the companys order book witnessed traction

in the road segment via winning of BOT projects and captive power projects.

We believe MPL

has a decent portfolio of road BOT assets (four operational + four under

development), power projects and coal mining projects, which have latent

potential. However, we believe faster execution and value unlocking at the

subsidiary level would act as a trigger for the companys performance. We expect

MPL to access the capital markets in FY2013, when it would have reached more

milestones and enhanced its asset visibility. Therefore, in the short to medium term,

the stock would continue to be a sector performer.

Key concerns

MPL has plans to raise money from

markets to fund its asset-expansion spree. In case MPL is unsuccessful in doing so,

it may face delays, which will negatively impact the IRRs of the companys projects.

MPL has high proportion of captive road BOT projects,

which are fixed-price contracts. In such contracts, some price escalations can be

factored in; however, the company may face risk of margin erosion if commodity

prices increase beyond estimates.

Slowdown in awarding activity by NHAI would hit order

inflow for road-focused players such as MPL.


9/14


May 14, 2012 9

Exhibit 12:Recommendation summary

ABL 199 302 Buy 1,522 2,014 2,294 22.7 18.0 28.4 30.8 30.8 11.0 7.0 6.4 4.2CCCL 15 - Neutral 2,128 2,526 2,792 14.5 (0.4) 1.8 2.8 - - 8.0 5.2 2.8

HCC 19 - Neutral 3,988 4,239 4,522 6.5 (3.7) (1.8) (0.8) - - - - 3.8

IRB Infra 116 186 Buy 3,131 3,821 4,582 21.0 14.9 15.0 16.9 6.5 7.7 7.7 6.8 -

ITNL 166 265 Buy 5,606 6,619 7,925 18.9 25.6 22.0 26.7 2.1 6.5 7.5 6.2 4.3

IVRCL 47 61 Buy 4,971 5,510 6,722 16.3 0.9 2.5 4.6 125.5 52.1 18.5 10.2 5.6

JP Assoc. 61 104 Buy 13,963 16,017 18,359 14.7 2.9 4.2 5.0 30.9 20.7 14.4 12.1 -

L&T 1,206 1,553 Buy 53,171 59,559 69,089 14.0 64.7 70.8 76.5 8.7 18.6 17.0 15.8 2.7

NCC 33 76 Buy 4,946 5,790 7,022 19.1 1.4 3.5 5.4 97.6 23.9 9.5 6.1 4.3

Patel Engg 88 - Neutral 3,573 3,609 3,836 3.6 14.9 14.0 14.5 (1.1) 5.9 6.3 6.0 2.7

Punj Lloyd 45 - Neutral 10,557 11,592 12,993 10.9 2.8 1.8 3.2 7.2 16.1 24.5 14.0 2.6

Sadbhav 129 199 Buy 2,604 2,989 3,314 12.8 9.3 10.2 11.3 10.5 13.9 12.7 11.4 2.7

Simplex In. 211 316 Buy 5,929 6,732 7,902 15.4 19.6 27.2 35.1 33.9 10.8 7.7 6.0 2.9


Exhibit 13:SOTP break-up

ABL 128 42 - - 174 58 - - - - 302

CCCL 17 100 - - - - - - - - 17HCC (5) (20) 12 50 16 70 - - - - 23

IRB Infra 98 59 - - 64 39 4 3 - - 166

ITNL 53 20 - - 180 68 - - 33 12 265

IVRCL 41 67 - - - - 20 33 - - 61

JP Assoc. 34 32 27 26 - - - - 43 42 104

L&T 1,223 79 - - - - 330 21 - - 1,553

NCC 43 57 2 2 10 13 - - 22 28 76

Patel Engg 55 51 17 16 16 15 - - 19 18 106

Punj Lloyd 72 100 - - - - - - - - 72

Sadbhav 102 51 - - 98 49 - - - - 199

Simplex In. 316 100 - - - - - - - - 316



10/14


May 14, 2012 10

Profit & loss statement (Standalone)

Other operating income

% chg 38.9 35.4 30.8 (0.7) 22.4 13.4

Total Expenditure 901 1,253 1,644 1,598 1,971 2,235

Net Raw Materials 706 1,022 1,397 1,417 1,533 1,739

Other Mfg costs 118 135 120 - 267 303

Personnel 46 50 58 57 90 103

Other 31 47 69 124 79 90

% chg 15.5 9.2 27.2 18.4 15.5 13.4

(% of Net Sales) 12.1 9.8 9.5 11.3 10.7 10.7

Depreciation& Amortisation 43 46 48 51 64 80

% chg 9.9 10.4 39.9 22.8 12.3 9.1

(% of Net Sales) 7.9 6.4 6.9 8.5 7.8 7.5

Interest & other Charges 27 25 63 109 139 156

Other Inc. (incl pft from Ass/JV) 19.1 5.6 8.9 17.3 19.1 21.0

(% of PBT) 26.1 8.1 12.5 28.4 36.7 40.0

% chg 5.2 (5.0) 1.9 (13.7) (14.8) 0.7

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

Tax 26 24 23 25 18 18

(% of PBT) 35.6 34.1 33.0 40.3 34.0 33.9

Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -

Prior period items - - - - - -

% chg (0.7) (2.4) (10.2) (11.2) (5.9) 0.8

(% of Net Sales) 4.6 3.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.4

% chg (0.7) (2.4) (10.2) (11.2) (5.9) 0.8


11/14


May 14, 2012 11

Balance sheet (Standalone)

Equity Share Capital 7 7 7 7 7 7Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 529 571 601 634 664 694

Minority Interest

Total Loans 320 513 751 1,206 1,487 1,628

Deferred Tax Liability 12 10 4 4 4 4

Gross Block 462 491 505 535 595 664

Less: Acc. Depreciation 173 218 264 315 379 459

Capital Work-in-Progress - - - - - -

Inventories 52 75 178 417 340 275

Sundry Debtors 88 124 379 400 513 600

Cash 85 55 64 124 214 197

Loans & Advances 491 498 764 872 1,121 1,335

Other - - - - - -

Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - - -


12/14


May 14, 2012 12

Cash flow statement (Standalone)

Profit before tax (excluding MI) 73 69 71 61 52 52

Depreciation 43 46 48 51 64 80Change in Working Capital 71 11 168 336 52 (10)

Less: Other income 19 6 9 17 19 21

Direct taxes paid 26 26 23 25 18 18

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (83) (29) (7) (30) (60) (69)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (73) (266) (117) (113) (174) (209)

Other income 19 6 9 17 19 21

Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 124 193 238 456 281 140

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 3 3 2 4 4 4

Others (1) (2) (30) - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (17) (29) 9 60 90 (17)


13/14


May 14, 2012 13

Key Ratios

P/E (on FDEPS) 7.2 7.4 8.2 9.3 9.8 9.8P/CEPS 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.4 3.0

P/BV 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

Dividend yield (%) 1.7 0.9 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1

EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7

EV/EBITDA 4.6 5.9 5.9 7.0 6.8 6.6

EV / Total Assets 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8

EPS (Basic) 6.4 6.2 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.7

EPS (fully diluted) 6.3 6.2 5.6 4.9 4.6 4.7

Cash EPS 12.2 12.5 12.0 11.8 13.3 15.5

DPS 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5

Book Value 72.4 78.1 82.2 86.6 90.7 94.8

EBIT margin 7.9 6.4 6.9 8.5 7.8 7.5

Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2

ROIC (Post-tax) 7.5 6.4 7.1 6.0 6.2 6.1

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.6 4.0 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.6

Leverage (x) 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.0

Operating ROE 7.8 7.9 7.6 5.2 5.0 5.0

ROACE (Pre-tax) 10.3 9.0 10.1 9.5 8.6 8.3

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 11.7 9.7 10.6 10.1 9.3 9.2

ROAE 9.1 8.2 6.9 5.8 5.2 5.0

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.4 2.9 3.6 3.5 3.9 4.0

Inventory / Sales (days) 29 17 25 60 63 45

Receivables (days) 32 28 51 79 76 81

Loans and Advances (days) 159 130 127 166 165 179

Payables (days) 180 133 153 202 186 198

W.cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 31 34 44 95 110 100

Net debt to equity 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.0

Net debt to EBITDA 1.9 3.4 4.0 5.3 5.4 5.4

Interest Coverage 3.0 3.5 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2


14/14


Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www. angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Madhucon Projects

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

madhucon projects result updated

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