macroeconomic conditions and the political economy of growth in ethiopia (lecture for defense...
TRANSCRIPT
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Macroeconomic Conditions and the Political Economy of Growth
in Ethiopia(Lecture for Defense College)
Alemayehu Geda , Dept of Economics,
Addis Ababa University
Addis Ababa 2007.
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An Overview of the Presentation An Overview of Globalization & Africa
Trade, Growth and Poverty in Africa Prospects of the Global economy and Africa
Impact of Emerging Economies: China and India (Surge in Commodity price, Industrialization etc)
The Ethiopian Macro Context The Political Economy of Growth in Ethiopia Conclusion: Challenges and Opportunities for Africa
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References used for the Lecture
Macroeconomic Performance in Post-Derg Ethiopia, Journal of Northeast African Studies (Michigan Univ. Press, 2005)
The Political Economy of Growth in Ethiopia (Cambridge African Economic History Series, 2007)
The Impact of China and India on Africa: A Framework Paper, AERC, Nairobi, 2006
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The Global and African Macro Context
The Global and African Macro Context
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Trade, Growth and Poverty in Africa Africa is linked to the world economy through trade and
finance Its share of the world trade has declined (about 2%) and
finance is largely aid related/debt creating This small amount of trade and finance is central for
Africa (about 60% of GDP) With globalization we noted growth in Africa However, poverty has increased (& inequality might be
the culprit).
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Table 1.2: Regional Percapita Income as Share of High Income OECD Countries OECD Countries Per Capita Income (1995 constant US$, percentage) Region 1980 1981-
1985 1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
2001
sub-Saharan Africa 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 South Asia 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Middle East & North Africa 9.7 9.0 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.7 Latin America & Caribbean 18.0 16.0 14.2 13.5 13.3 12.8 East Asia & Pacific 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.3 High income non-OECD 45.3 45.3 48.2 56.1 60.2 59.2 High income 97.7 97.6 97.6 97.9 97.9 97.8 High income OECD 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Alemayehu (2006b)
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Prospects of the Global Economy
Slow down in the US Economy, Japan (but EU ok) Global commodity prices expected to increase Global finance for Africa is also expected to grow US deficit, oil price (for importers) will continue
as a problem
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Emerging Economies: China and India’s Impact on Africa
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Emerging Economies: The Asian Drivers and Africa
The impact of the Asian Drivers (China and India) is a challenge and an opportunity
Trade b/n African and China surged from $3 billion in 1995 to $32 billion last year, estimated to over 50% this year ( though Africa make up only 2.3 % of China’s world trade).
Currently close to $400 billion/2014
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Emerging Economies ….Cont’d
This constitutes about 10% of Africa’s world trade. This trade is expected to more than double by 2010. [it does already1]
For some it is important: in 2005: for Sudan 70% which was 10% in 1995, Burkina Faso about 33% which was none before; Ethiopia about 13% which was none before.
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Emerging Economies ….Cont’d
China is also contributing about $1 billion out of 15 billion foreign investment Africa received in 2004.
For some China’s investment is huge. China promised to invest about $4 billion in Nigeria (in return for oil rights)
offer Angola $4 billion concessional credit – debt being to be paid in oil
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Emerging Economies ….Cont’d
pattern of trade is shifting from traditional partner the EU away to Asia/US
EU declining from 44 to 32% & US increase from 11 to 19% - 1995-2005).
We look at it through the vector of trade and FDI.
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Impact Analysis: Trade and FDI Impact
There is a need for Impact Analysis (see AERC, Nairobi)Trade Impact: The Asian Drivers and African
ManufacturingFDI Impact: The Asian Drivers and African
Manufacturing
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The Political Economy of Growth in Ethiopia
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The Ethiopian Macroeconomic Environment
Gebre-hiwot: Conflict & unequal Trade
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Major Patterns of Growth and Periodization
Political economy factors matter a lot (see below) Growth (in particular its sustainability) depends on
external shocks too ( Agrl, Weather, trade shocks) Poor policy accentuated poor growth Performance
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Three distinctive regimes
Imperial (lose control) --1974 Derg (hard control) – 1974-1991 EPRDF (Fairly liberal) 1991-now
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The Macro-Growth Performance
GDP and Sector Growth and Forecast
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Figure 1 : GDP and Agr Growth Rates
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Figure 2: Rainfall and GDP Growth
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2.1 The C-B Growth Accounting
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2.1 The C-B Growth Accounting
Capital explains / Goes with periodization Capital’s role decelerated in the latest 2 regimes Contribution of Education/worker weak across
regimes TFP virtually weak – correlates with weather
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Table 2.3: A Growth Accounting Exercise for Ethiopia in the Last Decade (2000-2010)
Note: The growth accounting is based on the result of econometric estimation reported in Alemayehu and Befekadu
(2005) and Alemayehu et al (2008). Using various models (both macro and micro) these studies have come up with the capital
share coefficient (β) that ranges from 0.28 to 0.36. We have used 0.30. The capital stock is generated using the perpetual method
(Geda, 2013/14).
Year
GDP Growth The Contribution of Capital
The Contribution of Labour
The Contribution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
2000/2001 7.4 0.6 2.6 4.2
2001/2002 1.6 0.8 2.7 -1.9
2002/2003 -2.1 1.0 2.6 -5.7
2003/2004 11.7 0.7 2.7 8.3
2004/2005 12.6 1.2 2.6 8.8
2005/2006 11.5 1.1 2.7 7.7
2006/2007 11.8 1.5 2.2 8.1
2007/2008 11.2 2.1 2.2 6.9
2008/2009 9.9 1.8 2.3 5.9
2009/2010 10.4 2.7 2.2 5.5
Average(2003/04-2009/10) 11.3 1.6 2.4 7.3
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2.2 Chenery-Syrquin/Structural change:
No structural change Performance half below expectation
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2.2 Chenery-Syrquin/Structural change:
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Figure 3: Structural Change
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Macro Stability and Macro Policy
Macro Stability in Ethiopian is related to:Rainfall External Shock (World Coffee and Oil Price + Aid)Regional SecurityMacro Policy (eg. Money SS/Printing)
Policy Implications of this contracts with US and EU (Fiscal and Monetary policy is no central)
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2.3 Augmented Solow & the Conditional (O-N) Models:
Growth below prediction Significant Negative (2nd) and Positive (3rd) time
dummy O-N show same but dramatically The Base variables are the most important Public spending within the policy variables is
important Policy improved but not unsustainable
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2.3 Augmented Solow & the Conditional (O-N) Models:
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Political Economy (of Growth in Ethiopia)
Politics matter: History: war with different ideology Land is the dynamics behind politics/regime shift External shock can trigger / oil crisis Detrimental effect: abrupt change, running by new
owners, disruption Shaped the natures of state (militaristic) and institutions which are
not developmental (but aimed at controlling power & resoruces) Reform and politics:
Int’l context/cold war, external endorsement/ shattered economy, decentralization
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Political Risk & Percapita Income
90
100
110
120
10 20 30 40 50 60
Political Risk Index (PRI)
Pe
r C
ap
ita
In
co
me
In
de
x (
PC
YI)
PCYI = 94.0+0.40(PRI)t-value (21.7) (3.1)
R^2=0.39
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Politics shaped: Markets, Institutions and agents behavior
Product Market: Mover from controlled to liberalized over time
The Labour Market: Urban Phenomena/Informal sector is crucial
The Land Market: Land is as much political as economic Shadow land market
Financial Market: Build=> Nationalize=> Privatize
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Politics & Policy shaped Micro Level Agents behavioru
General: Risk increased over time: policy, shock/regime shift
Rural: (see next slide) Natural riskFrequent Distn of land Inputs are important (credit/fertilizer)
Urban: very small, shock by Nationalization
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Evidence on Micro Aspect/Agrl/
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Conclusion on Ethiopia & Note on Botswan
Growth modest, but structural change absent Political & Institutional factors fundamental (regional
distribution) Pattern of growth, nature of control and TFP correlated
but: TFP is worst in the 2nd (Controlled )regime Growth is associated with external shock too (in the
context of weak markets). Thus Unsustainable growth (owing to shocks!)
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Botswan: Lesson from African
Botswana exhibited most of the problems identified for Africa’s growth problem
yet grew at 6% for last 35 years, & with export success,
why?Maintained good institutions (historic factor)Botswana chose prudent fiscal and macroeconomic
direction
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Botswana …Cont’davoided 'Dutch-Disease'-by not engaging in excessive
spending of the export windfalls It managed a stable exchange rate Its participation in the SACU limited lobbying for
favours in the trade arena (agency of restraint)The public sector allocated resources based on
economic and social returns was successful with foreign investors; and state
investment in education,
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Botswana …Cont’dWhy Botswana had good policies while other African
do not?good policies were complemented by good institutions-
what they refer to as institutions of private propertyFour factors have contributed significantly to the
formation and preservation of these institutions(1) possessed relatively inclusive pre-colonial institutions
that put bounds on how the political elite functioned. (2) The second is the minimal impact of British colonialism
on the traditional institutions that scrutinized how the elite behaved. T
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Botswana …Cont’d(3) after independence, the elite in Botswana found it in their
best interest to preserve the institutions of private property. (4) Botswana was rich in diamonds, the export profit of
which created enough rents for so that no group found it in its best interest to challenge the status quo..
Success of Botswana depended on good institutions is only a proximate answer .
why has Botswana such good institutions when the rest of Africa is devoid of them?
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Botswana …Cont’dwell-enforced property rights were in the interest of the
Botswana’s political elite in the aftermath of independence
By the mid 70’s the income from diamonds outstripped that of ranching income, but the elite did not rush to expropriate , particularly, two reasons.
One was that the elite did not feel threatened by the prospects of growth (slim chance that the elite became political losers deterred them from working towards the destruction of the good institutions –
The little risk that the Botswana elite faced in pursuing developmental policies was not shared by other African countries, where developmental policies only worked to dispossess traditional political institutions
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Botswana …Cont’d second constraints placed by institutions such as the
Kgotla may have ensured the accountability of institutions; forced the elite to opt for the enforcement of their property rights.
These institutions assured that there were no political instabilities. ( leaders forging an unlikely coalition between tribal chiefs, cattle owners and the BDP-the ruling party against colonialism)
good policies promoted rapid accumulation, investment and a socially efficient exploitation of resource rents.
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Botswana …Cont’dBotswana’s growth has been a juxtaposition of good
institutions-good policies-resource rents [primarily the export of diamonds, and export incomes from cattle ranching prior to the 70’s].
Harvey (1992): rural origin of political leadership that contributed to export agriculture escaping the ‘wrath of tax policy’, unlike other SSA where the social origins of the elites are urban and export taxes are exorbitant.
END (See Next Slide for Conclusion)
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Botswana …Cont’d
too)here Clture addmay (we
Causes lFundamenta Rodrics
Causes Proximate sRodric'