macro update: only slightly better growth seen for india

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 Bcabe6 Qmn YIB b| gnqqbcg ynear qk l~q qmn `nr bcqnyn|q yeqn OKCAER 51 FEC^EYR 9:5<  GAZ gykwqm anlndnyeqna |dbgmqdr qk >#<. bc rney/kc/rney qnyo| bc qmn qmbya u~eyqny# -Lmeyq 5" Gykwqm a~ybcg qmn hk~yqm u~eyqny me| innc wne` e| wndd i~q |mk~da in eidn qk oeqlm ky ineq qmbya u~eyqny gykwqm |dbgmqdr# Qmn nlkckobl |dkwakwc kxny qmn de|q 5= okcqm| me| qk e deygn n}qncq innc aybxnc ir wne` bcxn|qoncq# Ynhkyo bcbqbeqbxn| wnyn zyn|ncqna bc \nzqnoiny i~q elq~ed bozdnoncqeqbkc |qbdd dbn| bc qmn h~q~yn eca qmnyn eyn zdncqr kh zkdbqbled m~yadn| qk kxnylkon# Qmn |qeyq kh zeydbeoncq| wbcqny |n||bkc we| |nxnyndr ab|y~zqna ir kzzk|bqbkc zeyqbn| eca zkdbqbled bc|qeibd bqr ynoebc| e `nr yb|`# Wbqm e gncnyed gkxnyconcq anhblbq eyk~ca 2. kh GAZ eca kcdr e dbobqna kzzkyq~cbqr qk l~q qmn zkdblr yeqn$ qmnyn b| dbqqdn ykko qk ~|n nlkckobl zkdblr qk |qbo~deqn gykwqm #  GAZ b| n|qboeqna qk mexn gykwc ir >#1. bc 9:59# Bc 9:5<$ GAZ b| n}znlqna qk gykw ir  >#7. hkddkwna ir e |dbgmq ellndnyeqbkc qk 8#9. bc 9:51#  Mexbcg |qeibdb|na a~ybcg e~q~oc$ z~ylme|bcg oecegny|bcabln| -ZOB|" ynik~cana |qykcgdr bc Anlnoiny i~q eyn |qbdd indkw qmn exnyegn kh qmn ze|q hnw rney|# -Lmeyq 9"  Bca~|qybed zyka~lqbkc ineq n}znlqeqbkc| bc Klqkiny eca edqmk~gm qmn qynca we| ynxny|na bc Ckxnoiny qmn </okcqm okxbcg exnyegn rney/kc/rney gykwqm yeqn b| bc zk|bqbxn qnyybqkyr# -Lmeyq <"  N}zkyq| eca bozkyq| eyn |qbdd wne`# Edqmk~gm hbg~yn| mexn bozykxna |konwmeq one|~yna e| e </okcqm okxbcg exnyegn$ n}zkyq| ab|ezzkbcqna bc Anlnoiny# -Lmeyq 1"  Ley |edn| eyn xkdeqbdn i~q |qbdd bcableqn wne` akon|qbl anoeca# -Lmeyq >"  Wmkdn|edn zybln bcan} -WZB" bchdeqbkc me| anlndnyeqna |konwmeq eca we| 7#9. bc Anlnoiny  i~q |qbdd eikxn qmn lncqyed iec`| lkohkyq dnxnd# -Lmeyq 8" Onecwmbdn$ bchdeqbkc n}znlqeqbkc| ynoebc mbgm# -Lmeyq 7" Qmn Yn|nyxn Iec` kh Bcabe -YIB" dnhq qmn `nr bcqnyn|q yeqn eq =#:. eq qmn Anlnoiny onnqbcg # -Lmeyq =" M kwnxny$ qmn zkdblr |qeqnoncq bcableqn| |qykcg db`ndbmkka hky e l~q ne ydr bc 9:5<# Qmn YIB me| innc ~cany n}qnyced zyn||~yn qk l~q yeqn| |bcln |zybcg de|q rney# Wn n}znlq e 9> iz| yeqn l~q a~ybcg U5$ hkddkwna ir l~q| bc U9 eca U<$ z~|mbcg qmn yeqn akwc qk 7#:. ir qmn nca kh U<#  Qmn l~yyncq ellk~cq anhblbq wbancna bc U< eca qmn anhblbq wbdd lkcqbc~n qk wnbgm akwc qmn y~znn bc qmn cney qnyo#  -Lmeyq 2" Ecayne| Fkmc|kc \NI Nlkckobl Yn|neylm +18 = 78< =: <9 ecayne|#fkmc|kcJ|ni#|n @nr aeqe Znylncqegn lmecgn 9:59 9:5< 9:51 GAZ& >#1 >#7 8#9 Bchdeqbkc -wmkdn|edn"& 7#> 7#: 7#: ^\ABCY&& >1#2 >5#: 1=#: & Znylncqegn lmecgn# && Nca kh znybka# \k~yln6 BOH$ OelykIkca$ Obcb|qyr kh Lkoonyln eca Bca~|qyr$ \NI# Ckqn qmeq hkynle|q| eyn hky ledncaey rney$ ckq hb|led rney#

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Page 1: Macro Update: Only slightly better growth seen for India

7/30/2019 Macro Update: Only slightly better growth seen for India

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/macro-update-only-slightly-better-growth-seen-for-india 1/2

 

Bcabe6 Qmn YIB b| gnqqbcg ynear qk l~q qmn `nr bcqnyn|qyeqn

OKCAER

51 FEC^EYR 9:5<

•  GAZ gykwqm anlndnyeqna |dbgmqdr qk >#<. bc rney/kc/rney qnyo| bc qmn qmbya u~eyqny#-Lmeyq 5" Gykwqm a~ybcg qmn hk~yqm u~eyqny me| innc wne` e| wndd i~q |mk~da in eidn qkoeqlm ky ineq qmbya u~eyqny gykwqm |dbgmqdr# Qmn nlkckobl |dkwakwc kxny qmn de|q 5=okcqm| me| qk e deygn n}qncq innc aybxnc ir wne` bcxn|qoncq# Ynhkyo bcbqbeqbxn| wnynzyn|ncqna bc \nzqnoiny i~q elq~ed bozdnoncqeqbkc |qbdd dbn| bc qmn h~q~yn eca qmnyn eyn

zdncqr kh zkdbqbled m~yadn| qk kxnylkon# Qmn |qeyq kh zeydbeoncq‒| wbcqny |n||bkc we||nxnyndr ab|y~zqna ir kzzk|bqbkc zeyqbn| eca zkdbqbled bc|qeibdbqr ynoebc| e `nr yb|`#Wbqm e gncnyed gkxnyconcq anhblbq eyk~ca 2. kh GAZ eca kcdr e dbobqna kzzkyq~cbqr qkl~q qmn zkdblr yeqn$ qmnyn b| dbqqdn ykko qk ~|n nlkckobl zkdblr qk |qbo~deqn gykwqm #

•  GAZ b| n|qboeqna qk mexn gykwc ir >#1. bc 9:59# Bc 9:5<$ GAZ b| n}znlqna qk gykw ir >#7. hkddkwna ir e |dbgmq ellndnyeqbkc qk 8#9. bc 9:51# 

•  Mexbcg |qeibdb|na a~ybcg e~q~oc$ z~ylme|bcg oecegny|‒ bcabln| -ZOB|" ynik~cana|qykcgdr bc Anlnoiny i~q eyn |qbdd indkw qmn exnyegn kh qmn ze|q hnw rney|# -Lmeyq 9"

•  Bca~|qybed zyka~lqbkc ineq n}znlqeqbkc| bc Klqkiny eca edqmk~gm qmn qynca we|ynxny|na bc Ckxnoiny qmn </okcqm okxbcg exnyegn rney/kc/rney gykwqm yeqn b| bc

zk|bqbxn qnyybqkyr# -Lmeyq <" •  N}zkyq| eca bozkyq| eyn |qbdd wne`# Edqmk~gm hbg~yn| mexn bozykxna |konwmeq

one|~yna e| e </okcqm okxbcg exnyegn$ n}zkyq| ab|ezzkbcqna bc Anlnoiny# -Lmeyq 1"

•  Ley |edn| eyn xkdeqbdn i~q |qbdd bcableqn wne` akon|qbl anoeca# -Lmeyq >" 

•  Wmkdn|edn zybln bcan} -WZB" bchdeqbkc me| anlndnyeqna |konwmeq eca we| 7#9. bcAnlnoiny i~q |qbdd eikxn qmn lncqyed iec`‒| lkohkyq dnxnd# -Lmeyq 8" Onecwmbdn$ bchdeqbkcn}znlqeqbkc| ynoebc mbgm# -Lmeyq 7" Qmn Yn|nyxn Iec` kh Bcabe -YIB" dnhq qmn `nr bcqnyn|qyeqn eq =#:. eq qmn Anlnoiny onnqbcg# -Lmeyq =" Mkwnxny$ qmn zkdblr |qeqnoncqbcableqn| |qykcg db`ndbmkka hky e l~q neydr bc 9:5<# Qmn YIB me| innc ~cany n}qnycedzyn||~yn qk l~q yeqn| |bcln |zybcg de|q rney# Wn n}znlq e 9> iz| yeqn l~q a~ybcg U5$hkddkwna ir l~q| bc U9 eca U<$ z~|mbcg qmn yeqn akwc qk 7#:. ir qmn nca kh U<#

•  Qmn l~yyncq ellk~cq anhblbq wbancna bc U< eca qmn anhblbq wbdd lkcqbc~n qk wnbgm akwcqmn y~znn bc qmn cney qnyo# -Lmeyq 2"

Ecayne| Fkmc|kc

\NI Nlkckobl Yn|neylm

+18 = 78< =: <9

ecayne|#fkmc|kcJ|ni#|n

@nr aeqe

Znylncqegn lmecgn

9:59 9:5< 9:51

GAZ& >#1  >#7  8#9

Bchdeqbkc -wmkdn|edn"& 7#>  7#: 7#:

^\ABCY&& >1#2  >5#:  1=#:

& Znylncqegn lmecgn# && Nca kh znybka#

\k~yln6 BOH$ OelykIkca$ Obcb|qyr kh Lkoonyln eca Bca~|qyr$ \NI#

Ckqn qmeq hkynle|q| eyn hky ledncaey rney$ ckq hb|led rney#

Page 2: Macro Update: Only slightly better growth seen for India

7/30/2019 Macro Update: Only slightly better growth seen for India

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/macro-update-only-slightly-better-growth-seen-for-india 2/2

 

Nlkckobl Bc|bgmq|

LMEYQ\ KC QMN BCABEC NLKCKOR