macro technicals themes q1 2010

8/14/2019 Macro Technicals Themes q1 2010

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TRENDROOMMACRO TECHNICALS THEMES

Q1 2010


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I. Equities

Equity markets were well bid during the H2 2009 powered by reflationtheme and improving fundamentals (as smart guys think fundamentals is

not my game anyway)

Going into S&P500 graph we see that overall long term trend is still on theupside and 50% fibo is about to be broken targeting 1233 area into March-

April 2010 when seasonals for equities will fade away.


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German DAX index Similar picture as S&P500. Index managed to brokeand close above heavy resistance area 5900. MACD is slightly tired pointing

to a slow grind to the upside. Overall picture remain bullish


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SHANGHAI Composite index China stock markets did not behave in very bullishfashion in Q4 2009, what are the factors behind this under performance remain tobe seen. Technical picture is very mixed and I prefer to see clear breakout up or

down and then to chase unfolding trend.


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Russian RTS index Index consolidates close to 50% fibo of entire movedown. Technicals are weakening and some caution is needed. Clearbreak of 50% fibo is turn MT picture on the upside. Long term trend

remain Bullish.


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MSCI Emerging markets still holds upper ground but technicals areweakening. Maybe we can see a deeper correction in 2010.


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The graph below shows the ratio Dow Jones Industrial Average vs Gold.Very interesting for me and this ratio is turning its long term trend to theUPSIDE.


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II.Bonds

If you want big profits you need big trends as master ED says. So bonds(shorting them) is my favorite trend for H1 2010. Bull runs of yields of US 10

year treasury notes usually last around 190-200 bps before entering incorrection mode. 10 year T-note managed to break above channel

resistance around 3.60% and I think we are on the road to 5-5.10% goinginto May 2010.


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III. CommoditiesCommodities Everybody loves commodities

Doctor Copper graph below still in uptrend but technicals are tired after 12month bull run.


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GOLD Long term uptrend remains intact but market correcting ST&MToverbought conditions.


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Light Sweet Crude Bullish technical picture with higher lows of weeklygraph as shown below. MACD pointing of upward slope sideway trading.


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IV. Currencies

EURUSD Sharp correction for last couple of weeks brought Eurodollarto very important support area 1.425, support holds at least for now and I

expect overall trend to the upside to resume.


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GBPUSD Consolidation continues and some of technicals start to look abit bearish. I would wait for clear breakout of this trading range and the will

chase unfolding trend.


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US Dollar index looks for me as correction in long term bear trend. 79 areais very important any close above weekly MA40 will change overall picture.

macro technicals themes q1 2010

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