m odel f orest p olicy p rogram 1 climate resilient communities forest and water strategies nancy...
TRANSCRIPT
MODEL FOREST POLICY PROGRAM1
Climate Resilient CommunitiesForest and Water Strategies
Nancy Gilliam Executive Director
Module 1
Warning!
“The invoice for the future impact costs of climate change has been put on the table today (April 6, 2007) by the (IPCC) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is not a bill that we would have to pay in full if the world decides now to make deep and decisive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.”
– Achim Steiner
Executive Director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP)
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The Role of Local Governments
Local governments are leading the way in climate change solutions for themselves and for the world
Five take home messages
1
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Urgency of Our Problem
With a 10-year window to reduce our CO2 levels…
Five take home messages
Action to preserve the remaining areas of Natural Forests is urgent*
* Stern Review, p.537
2
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Role of Forests to Climate and Water
Curbing deforestation is a highly cost effective way of reducing greenhouse gases and protecting precious water resources*
Five take home messages
* Stern Review, p.537
3
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Solutions
Land use planning has a key role to play
Five take home messages
* Stern Review, p.541
4
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Solutions
Sustainable policies have positive economic benefits
Five take home messages
* Stern Review, p.541
5
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Five Take Home Messages
Local government taking the lead
10-year window
Curbing deforestation
Land use planning
Positive economic benefits
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Climate Change Predictions
Module 2
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Climate Predictions
Greenhouse effect
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Of the five greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide is the most prevalent
As CO2 levels are going up, temperatures are going up….direct correlation
Future scenarios run from 520-960 ppm by 2100
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Causes of Increased CO2
Utility emissions, industrial emissions, building emissions, vehicle emissions, and deforestation
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Quality of Life Threatened RESULTS
Increased temperature
2° to 11° depending on the model
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Quality of Life Threatened
More hotter days…
RESULTS
Mean temp (F) anomaly
30-day mean ending 1/5/07
…higher minimum temps
Fewer cold days…
…more frost-free days
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Quality of Life ThreatenedRESULTS
* IPCC April 2007
More intense weather patterns
Rise in sea levels threatening coastal cities and wetlands
due to polar melting
Between 15% and close to 40% of plant and animal species will be “committed to extinction” by 2050*
Mega wildfires
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Water Impacts…Too Much, Too Little, Not Safe
Too much water– More intense hurricanes, flooding
Safe drinking water limited– Septic systems overflow
Storm water systems overloaded – Locally insufficient infrastructure– Increased infrastructure costs
RESULTS
Photo credit: Bruce Molnia, U.S. Geological Survey
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Water Impacts…Too Little Water, Drought
NPR April 16th, 2007: U.S. Army study reports water shortages caused by climate change will threaten national as well as global security
IPCC April 2007: Canada and the United States facing costly water shortages and loss of biodiversity unless adaptation mainstreamed into economic life
IPCC April 2007: …increase[ing] competition between industry, cities, hydropower operators, farmers and fishermen for freshwater supplies
Aquifer declines: Ground-water flows from the Edwards Aquifer in Texas for example could drop by up to 40% leading to economic losses for farmers*
RESULTS
* IPCC April 2007
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Regional Predictions: Northwest U.S.
Decreased source water: Warming temperatures cause snow levels to drop, earlier Spring run-off and flooding/melting glaciers…by Summer, drought.
IPCC April 2007: Summer flows in some river systems such as the Colorado and Columbia basin are likely to decline sharply within four decades.
RESULTS
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Mega Wildfires RESULTS
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Forests, Carbon, and Water Essential Relationships
Module 3
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Understanding How Forests Play a Vital Rolein Maintaining Livable Climate Conditions
Carbon…the essential
element of life
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The Carbon Cycle
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How Is Carbon Stored?
During photosynthesis, plants remove carbon from the atmosphere, converts it into sugars and oxygen is released
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What Happens When Plants Die, Burn, or Decompose?
Also, when the soils are disturbed thru logging, or conversion to other uses, more CO2 is released
Carbon as CO2 is released back to the atmosphere
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Making land use/deforestation a significant factor in the build up of CO2 levels and significant in the current solutions**
Carbon Build Up
* IPCC, 2001** Houghton, 2003, Salwasser, 2006
A petagram (Pg) is 1.1 billion tons of carbon
From 1850-2000, land use changes caused the release of 156 Pg of CO2, 90% from deforestation*
90%
Deforestation That amount is about one-half of the CO2 levels that burning fossil fuels/cement making has caused (275 Pg CO2)
36%
Other
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Or Saying It Another Way…
Mismanagement of forests, particularly the burning of tropical forests, is 25% of the current CO2 levels
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Therefore, Forests Are an Essential Part of the CO2 Mitigation Solution
6.6 Billion tons of CO2 are released each year from burning fossil fuels
1.65 Billion tons of CO2 would be offset in forests if we reduced our deforestation by 50%
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Forests and Water Explained
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The Fresh Water Source…Forests
* Source: Carr
Forested watersheds provide drinking water for 180 million people*
Source Brown
Mean annual water supply originating on Federal, State and private land, by land cover class
About two-thirds of U.S. fresh water originates on forested lands
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Water Quantity
Forests capture and store 50% of our water, recharge ground water/aquifers, and slowly release it back to maintain stream flow between storms
Thus, reducing severity of droughts
And, providing a reliable flow for hydro power, agriculture, wildlife, and recreation
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Water Quality
Forests control the flow of water
Forests reduce the amount of water storm water systems must contain, reducing taxpayer costs for new systems
Forested riparian zones filter pollutants/reduce sediment and nutrient loads
* Source: Carr
In arid and semi-arid regions such as much of the Western United States, wetlands and riparian areas play an
especially critical role*
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Water Quality
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Transpiration
Source: OR Forest Resources Institute, 2006 Photo: Mark Meyer
The massive amounts of water transpired by forests ultimately change the global distribution of energy in the atmosphere, affecting rainfall patterns, cloudiness, and storms
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Other Benefits of Forests
1. Shade & cooling (for urban, aquatics, soils)
2. Habitat for fish, wildlife, birds, & domestic animals
3. Aesthetic values
4. Commercial harvests
5. Recreation & hunting opportunities
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Further Threats to Forests
Module 4
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Forest Management Policies
Only 10 States in the U.S. have comprehensive forest practice laws
Voluntary Best Management Practices are often not sufficient water protection
Only a handful of forest landowners—a mere 7% of those owning parcels between 10 and 5,000 acres in the lower 48—currently have a written management plan. Fewer than half of private forest landowners seek professional assistance
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DevelopmentAcres of non-Federal forest land converted to developed land
Source: NRCS, 2000
Recent U.S. Forest Service estimates are that some 15-20 Million acres
of U.S. forest land could be converted to urban and developed uses by 2050
In the U.S., for example, roughly 1.5 Million acres of forests are currently lost to
development and conversion each year.
Figured conservatively, this forest loss results in the release of 275 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere—a release equivalent to the emissions output by 53 million vehicles over a one-year period.
– Pacific Forest Trust, 2007
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Epidemic Insect Infestation With Rising Temperatures
Warmer temperatures allow insect populations to increase. Drought stricken trees are easy targets.
* Source: IPCC 2007
North American producers of wood and timber could suffer losses of
between $1 Billion and $2 Billion a year during the 21st century if
climate change also sparks changes in diseases, insect
attacks…and fires*
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More Frequent, More Severe, and Larger Fires
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Solutions for Resilient Communities
Module 5
MODEL FOREST POLICY PROGRAM43Source: R. Scocolow, R. Hotinski, J.B. Greenblatt, and S. Pacala
Solutions for Resilient Communities
Stabilization wedges
Note: The stabilization triangle can be divided into seven equal “wedges” that represent activities capable of reducing one billion tons of carbon per year by 2054.
Year2004 2054
Billions of tons of carbon emitted per year
14
7
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Climate Change Solutions
In the U.S., according to the Union of Concerned Scientists,
“forests and land-use measures have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by the equivalent of 10-20% of projected fossil fuel emissions through 2050.”
Forests
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Stern Review
Prevent deforestation
Source: Reproduced from Baumert et al (2005)Use change within the range equivalent to 2.2 to 9.9 GtCO2, with a central estimate of 6.2 GtCO2. A fuller discussion setting out the range of estimates can be found in Baumert KA et al. (2005). CAIT, WRI, 2000 figures used.
Sources of emissions from global land use change 2000
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Climate Action Plan
Commit to Climate Action Plan
Form Land Use Subcommittee
Assess forest ownership patterns, forest condition, current policies
Analyze the root causes/systems influencing your forest/water problems
Pinpoint strategies; include adaptation and mitigation strategies
Implement and evaluate
Forests
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Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Increase Stock Conservation of Stock
Reforestation Low impact harvesting
Extend rotation from 30-70 years
Prevent deforestation/land use change
Afforestation Thin for fire suppression
POLICY
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Low Impact Harvesting
Riparian buffers
Pre-notification of logging
Timber harvest plans
Road construction standards
Cumulative impacts data
Licensing of foresters
State Laws: Model Forest Policy Tool Kit
POLICY
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New Attitude
Urbanization can also have social implications with respect to water protection and conservation. People moving into newly urbanized areas often bring different attitudes and a lack of experience with natural resources and rural social values.
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Preventing Deforestation Caused by Developments
County: York County, Virginia
State: Maryland’s Forest Conservation Act
POLICY
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Maryland Forest Conservation Act
100-year floodplains
Intermittent and perennial streams and their buffers
Steep slopes: Greater than 25% grade
Critical habitats for endangered species
Non-tidal wetlands
Contiguous forest that connects the largest undeveloped forests adjacent to the site
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Carbon Sequestration Strategies
Carbon Registry
Carbon Credits
Example
California Climate Action Registry (SB812); Georgia new plan underway
New Mexico, Boulder
Van Eck Forest Foundation
POLICY
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Rising Prices for Carbon
Credit M. Smith
$0.83$1.14
$4.70
$5.92
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
NO HWP W/ HWP Future NOHWP
FutureW/ HWP
CCX annual net revenue per forest acre
Future values use $4.35 per MtCO2e
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Carbon Credit Example: van Eck Forest
Conservation easement preventing conversion
Sustainable practices
Income from carbon credits
POLICY
California’s first climate-protecting forest project to prevent 500,000 tons of C02 emissions (July 2006)
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Educational ToolsSTRATEGIES
Tools for landowners
Landowner’s Guide to Sustainable Forestry: Maximizing Profits While Protecting Water Quality (DVD)
Landowner’s Handbook: Managing Your Woodlands
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Educational Tools
Guide to evaluating your existing local forest watershed policy
Case studies of well managed forested watersheds
Model contracts for selling your timber
STRATEGIES
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Case Study
Photos courtesy of Richard Weisser and SmokyPhotos.com
EDUCATION
The State of Chesapeake Forestsby USFS and The Conservation Fund
MODEL FOREST POLICY PROGRAM59Source: The State of Chesapeake Forests, Ch. 7, pg 89.
Vulnerability of forests important to water quality to the Chesapeake Bay
31%
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Summary
Climate change is Real
Local communities are In Action
Forests are Essential to water and to climate
Solutions exist
INSPIRING THE WILL!
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Thank you
The Model Forest Policy Programwww.mfpp.org(509) 432-8679
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