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Corporate Presentation October 2018 17 Aug 18 WF12414

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Page 1: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

CorporatePresentationOctober 2018

17 Aug 18 WF12414

Page 2: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

SEK

/Share

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

UK Spin-off~700 MUSD

IPC Spin-off~410 MUSD

Dividend Payment 4 SEK/share

CAGR >30%Dividend 2019MUSD1.2Bn USD

Liquidity

>160~20% CAGR growth from 2018

Mboepdby 2022

Industry Leading

~4 USD/boeLow Opex

>10Bn USDMarket Cap

~1Bn boeResource base

≥350

Lundin PetroleumA Leading European Independent E&P Company

2Lundin Petroleum

Page 3: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

Organic growth strategy

NCS ranks in top 10 worldwide exploration areas(1)

Significant yet to find resources >16 billion barrels(2)

Track record of company-making discoveries 6 successes out of 7 E&A wells drilled in 2018 2018 Successes: Luno II, Lille Prinsen, Frosk, Rolvsnes, Alta, Gekko

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0.7 Lundin Petroleum finding costs(3)USD/boe

Norway

HammerfestHammerfest

StavangerStavangerOsloOslo

HarstadHarstad

Alvheim Area

Mandal High

Frøya High/Froan Basin

Loppa High

Southeastern TrendSouthern Barents Sea7.3 billion barrels(2)

Norwegian Sea4.7 billion barrels(2)

North Sea4.6 billion barrels(2)

Utsira High Area

(2) NPD estimate January 2018(3) Post tax

(1) Woodmac

Lundin PetroleumNorway Pure Play

3Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin PetroleumKey Operational Metrics

2P Reserves Production Operating Costs

Net

MM

bo

e

Net

Mb

oep

d

US

D/b

oe

2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016

654714

2017

726

21

59

2017 2018Guidance

8678–82 10.7

6.8

2017 2018Guidance

4.25 <4.0

Operating Cash Flow

Mill

ion

US

D

2015 2016

550

860

(1)Oil price range 55 to 70 USD/bbl

2017 2018 (1)

1,530

Strong track record of organic growth and delivery

4Lundin Petroleum

Page 5: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

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Committed Projects Only« the do nothing case »

Opex Guidance (USD/boe)

2015 2016 2017 2018Guidance

Long-termGuidance

10.70

6.80

4.25 <4.0 3.90to

4.40

Lundin PetroleumLong-term Production Growth

2015

21

59

86 78-82

>130

>160

2016 2017 2018Guidance

Growth of ~20% CAGR

J. SverdrupPhase 1

(late 2019)

J. SverdrupPlateau(2022)

Production Guidance (Mboepd)

5Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin PetroleumFinancially Transformational-Years Ahead

Cash tax dueAs % of EBITDA

Assumes: 2P Reserves Case only and 250 MUSD E&A for 2018, ~200 MUSD per year thereafter

EBIT

DA

Bill

ion

US

D

1.5(1)

0.8(1)

0.3(1)

1.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

201720162015 2018 JS Phase 1 JS Phase 2

0%0%0% ~0-4% ~40-55% ~55-60%

1.4

55 USD/bbl + 2% pa escalation

70 USD/bbl + 2% pa escalation

2020+

Capital flexibility to further

increase Dividend

2019

≥350 MUSD

2018

4 SEK/share

Dividends

(1) Data from continuing operations following the IPC spin-off

6Lundin Petroleum

Page 7: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

(1) Sources NOROG/IOGP for world and Norway data (2016 averages). Edvard Grieg’s data is from 2017. All data is in kgCO2 e/boe (incl. methane). Johan Sverdrup full field estimate data is in kgCO2 /boe,data updated August 2018(2) 2017W

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12 p

13 0

8.18

One of lowest carbon intensity oil companies in World

Significant reduction at Edvard Grieg from 2022 through power from shore

~25% of R&D funding towards emission reduction

Commitment to Low Carbon IntensityLundin Petroleum

NorwayEnergy ManagementPower from shoreEnergy ManagementPower from shore

World

Emis

sio

ns

inte

nsi

ty(1

)

EdvardGrieg

J. Sverdrup

~20

~10

~5

~0.7

AA

ESG Ratings(2)

Outperformer

Prime Status

7Lundin Petroleum

Page 8: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

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Key AssetsLundin Petroleum

Alvheim Area

Utsira High Area

Alvheim

Volund

Bøyla

Edvard Grieg

Johan Sverdrup

DevelopmentProduction

Production

8Lundin Petroleum

Page 9: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

Gas Export to SAGEOil Export to Grane

Edvard Grieg – Significant Reserves IncreaseLundin Petroleum

OPEX 3.59 USD/boe(1)

(1) 1H 2018 actual, includes tariff netting

2018 production efficiency guided at 95%

2017 year-end reserves increase (+51 MMboe gross) Recovery rate increased from 38% to 50% (2P only)

PDO development drilling completed

Resource upside - Luno II, Lille Prinsen, Rolvsnes, Goddo

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Cumulative Production

Edvard GriegGross Reserves/Resources (MMboe)

2017

274

+47%

353

PDO

186

2C Contingent Resources

Remaining 2P Reserves

3P Reserves

Edvard Grieg (WI 65%)

Ivar Aasen (WI 1.385%)

Lille Prinsen (WI 20%) Luno II (WI 65%)

Rolvsnes (WI 50%)

Johan Sverdrup (WI 22.6%)Goddo Prospect (WI 40%)

9Lundin Petroleum

Page 10: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

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Edvard GriegProduction Plateau Extended by further 2 Years

0

20

40

60

80

100

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Gross Production (Mboepd)

2P ReservesPlateau to end 2019

End PlateauPDO

3P ReservesPlateau to mid-2021

2C Resources (infill wells)Satellite opportunities(Luno II, Rolvsnes, Goddo)

2P reserves

3Preserves

Potential for production plateau to continue to shift to the right

10Lundin Petroleum

Page 11: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

Lundin PetroleumAlvheim Area – Continuous Reserves Growth

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Strong reservoir performance

Portfolio of good infill drilling opportunities

Frosk discovery and exploration upside >200 MMboe (3)

OPEX 4.77 USD/boe (2)

Infill opportunities breakeven ~30 USD/boe

(1) As at 31 December 2017 (2) 1H 2018 Actual (3) Gross resources

Bøyla

Frosk Discovery

Froskelår - exploration well 2018

Rumpetroll - exploration well 2018 ViperKobra

Kameleon - infill well 2018

Gekko - appraisal well 2018

Alvheim FPSO

Alvheim

Volund

+86%

2C Contingent ResourcesCumulative Production

3P Reserves

Remaining 2P Reserves

AlvheimGross Reserves/Resources (MMboe)(1)

PDO

257

571

2017

479

11Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin Petroleum Organic Growth Strategy - Big Fields Get Bigger

600

400

100

500

300

200

0

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

Gro

ss M

Mb

oe

Alvheim AreaPDO End 2017

86%

Edvard GriegPDO End 2017

47%

Johan SverdrupPDO End 2017(1)

10%

(1) Before resource increase announced by Equinor August 2018

(2) 2P reserves is Proved plus Probable reserves

(3) 3P reserves is Proved plus Probable plus Possible reserves

Cumulative Production

2C Contingent Resources

Remaining 2P Reserves(2)

3P Reserves(3)

12Lundin Petroleum

Page 13: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

Lundin PetroleumJohan Sverdrup - Key Numbers

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Phase 1First oil Nov 2019

440 Mbopd

Full FieldFirst oil Q4 2022

660 Mbopd

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Phase 1PDO 123 Bn NOK

Current 86 Bn NOK

Phase 2PDO 85 Bn NOK(2)

Current 41 Bn NOK

GROSS CAPEX(1)GROSS RESOURCES

(Previous 2.1–3.1 billion boe)

2.2–3.2 billion boe

BREAK EVEN PRICE

Full Field

<20 USD/boe

(1) Nominal, NOK 6:USD, fixed currency, excluding IOR(2) Original PDO

Equinor

Lundin

Petoro

Aker BP

Total

40.0267%

22.6000%

17.3600%

11.5733%

8.4400%

Working Interest – Johan Sverdrup Unit

13Lundin Petroleum

Page 14: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

Johan SverdrupPhase 1 on Schedule

2017 2018 2019

Riser

Topsides InstallationSchedule

Phase 2PDO submitted

Phase 1expected first oil November 2019

JacketInstallationSchedule

PipelineInstallationSchedule

Drilling

Installation completed

Process LQ

Process LQ

~80% complete

Gas Pipeline

Oil Pipeline

DrillingRiser

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.18

14Lundin Petroleum

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Organic Growth Strategy - Significant near Term Upside PotentialLundin Petroleum

Mandal High

Frøya High/Froan Basin

Southeastern Trend

Core areas

(1) Net resources(2) Net unrisked prospective resources

50%increase inacreage footprintfrom last year

coreexplorationareas6

exploration wellsin 201811

~600 MMboe(2)

appraisal wellsin 20184

>200 MMboe(1)

Norway

HammerfestHammerfest

StavangerStavangerUtsira High Area

Alvheim Area

Loppa High

OsloOslo

HarstadHarstad

15Lundin Petroleum

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Exploration ProgrammeLundin PetroleumLundin Petroleum Southern Barents Sea

3 exploration wells in 2018

Alvheim Area

3 exploration wells in 2018

Frøya High/Froan Basin

1 exploration well in 2018

Utsira High

2 exploration well in 2018

Mandal High

1 exploration well in 2018 (2) Gross unrisked prospective resources

(1) Gross resources

2018 programme - 10 wells

2 oil discoveries out of 3 wells drilled - Frosk and Lille Prinsen

Programme update - 2 follow-up wells to Frosk discovery

Silfari exploration well currently ongoing

Area upside potential>200 MMboe(2)

Appraisal upside>100 MMboe(2)

16Lundin Petroleum

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Appraisal - Progressing Resources to ReservesLundin Petroleum

AppraisalRolvsnes14-78 MMboe(1)

Alta EWTCompleted

(2) NPD

(1) Operator estimates of gross resources

28–52 MMboe(2)

GekkoFrosk30-60 MMboe(1) Norway

North Sea

Norwegian Sea

Southern Barents Sea

HammerfestHammerfest

StavangerStavangerUtsira High Area

Alvheim Area

Loppa High

Luno II appraisal success Gross resources increased to 40–100 MMboe

PDO early 2019

Rolvsnes appraisal drilling/testing success Gross resources increased to 14–78 MMboe Area gross potential resources of >250 MMboe

Alta/Gohta appraisal drilling/testing Alta EWT successfully completed

Frosk discovery 2 follow-up wells in 2H 2018 Frosk long-term production test in 2019

Lille Prinsen discovery Appraisal planned in 2019

Gekko appraisal success Gross resources 28-52 MMboe(2)

OsloOslo

HarstadHarstad

Luno II 40-100 MMboe(1)

Lille Prinsen15-35 MMboe(1)

6 potential new projects beyond “the do nothing case”

17Lundin Petroleum

Page 18: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

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Strong production growth from committed projects

Industry leading low operating costs

Strong cash flow generation

Sustainable dividend

Continued focus on Organic Growth – significant successes to date

Business development – opportunistic strategy

Deliver high ESG standards in a sustainable way

The Sustainable Organic Growth StoryLundin Petroleum

18Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin PetroleumKey Messages

Strong production growth with low operating costs

Exciting organic growth strategy

Continued strong focus on cost discipline and operating efficiency

Responsible operator with focus on HSE and risk management

2015 2016

Production Guidance(Mboepd)

59.3

2017

20.7

>150

>120

2015 2016 2017 J. SverdrupPhase 1

OPEX(USD/boe)

32

6.8

~4.54.25

10.7

J. SverdrupPlateau

J. SverdrupPhase 1

86.1

19Lundin Petroleum

Lundin Petroleum

Appendix

Page 20: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

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Lundin PetroleumFinancial Highlights - 2017

Operating Cash Flowfrom continuing operations

EBITDAfrom continuing operations

Net Resultfrom continuing operations

200

0

400

600

800

1,200

752.5

1,501.5

100%

2016 2017

Mill

ion

US

D

0

1,600

1,400

1,000

200

400

600

800

1,200

1,600

1,400

1,000

2016 2017

Mill

ion

US

D

2016(2) 2017

(1) Includes increase in net foreign exchange gain compared to 2016 of MUSD 259.5 (2) Includes a non-cash impairment change of MUSD 422.6 after tax in relation to Russia.

Mill

ion

US

D 0

200

400

-200

-400-399.3

380.9(1)

857.9

1,530

78%

20Lundin Petroleum

Page 21: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

(1) Nominal values - 2% inflation

Mill

ion

US

D

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

2018 2019 2020 2021

Forecast Development Expenditure (Million USD) (1)

CMD 2018

Assumes 2P Case only

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Lundin PetroleumForecast Development Expenditure

Committed Projects Only

21Lundin Petroleum

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Cash Flow, Debt Position and LiquidityLundin Petroleum

201720182019Total 3.9

3.8

Net Debt31 Dec 17

Net Debt30 Jun 18

Cash Flows from

OperatingActivities

Cash Flows from

InvestingActivities

DebtRepayment

LoanModificationFees Paid

CashBuild

MU

SD

Bn

US

D

Facility Size 5 Bn USD807.4

16.7-16.9

DividendPayments

-153.1

Purchase Own Shares

-14.3

-60.0

-546.4

Free CashflowMUSD 261.0

Available LiquidityHeadroom

1.2Bn USD

As of 1H 2018

22Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin PetroleumFunding and Liquidity - 2018 Guidance

0

20

40

60

100

80

OCF(1)LiquidityHeadroomstart 2018

Capex/E&A

Finance/G&A

2017 Dividends

LiquidityHeadroomend 2018

45

2018 Guidance, Brent 65 USD/boe

39

96

60

39

Tax Pools of USD 2.5(2) billion as per start 2018

(1) Operating cash flow (2) NOK 8.0:USD

US

D/b

oe

23Lundin Petroleum

Page 24: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

Cutting-edge technology

Subsurfaceexpertise

Maximising recovery

New reservoirsand plays

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Organic Value Creation Through InnovationLundin Petroleum

24Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin Petroleum2018 Development Activity

2018 Budget 800 MUSD

Molde

Stavanger

Oslo

Norway

Barents Sea

Norwegian Sea

North Sea

0 KM 200

Edvard Grieg

Other

Johan Sverdrup

Alvheim Area

Utsira High

Alvheim Area2 infill wells

Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 Facilities construction/installation Development drilling

Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 PDO submittal Detailed design

Edvard Grieg Development drilling

25Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin Petroleum2018 Exploration & Appraisal Activity

2018 Budget 300 MUSD

Molde

Stavanger

Oslo

Norway

Barents Sea

Norwegian Sea

North Sea

0 KM 200

Appraisal ~48%

Exploration ~52%

11 Exploration Wells4 Appraisal Wells

Southern Barents Sea Area

Mandal High Area

Frøya High/Froan Basin Area

Utsira High Area

Alvheim AreaFrosk Discovery

Lille Prinsen Discovery

Silfari Prospect

Driva / Oppdal Prospects

Alta EWT

Luno II AppraisalRolvsnes Appraisal

J. Sverdrup PDO Phase 2

Gekko Appraisal

Appraisal

Discovery

Exploration

JK Prospect

Gjøkåsen ShallowProspect

Gjøkåsen DeepProspect

Svanefjell Prospect

Rumpetroll Prospect

Froskelår Prospect

26Lundin Petroleum

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(2) 3P Reserves is Proved plus Probable plus Possible remaining reserves

(1) 2P Reserves is Proved plus Probable remaining reserves

(4) Reserve life index (RLI) is the ratio of remaining reserves and the current annual production forecast(5) Independently audited by ERC Equipoise Ltd (ERCE)(6) 2C Contingent Resources

(3) As per industry standards the reserve replacement ratio (RRR) is defined as the ratio of reserves additions to production during the year, excluding acquisitions and sales

Year-end 2017 Net Reserves and Resources (MMboe)

Lundin Petroleum

3P RRR(3): 99%3P RLI(4): 28 Years

2P RRR(3): 144%2P RLI(4): 23 Years

27Lundin Petroleum

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Southern Barents SeaExploration - Early Days

Hammerfest

Vadso

Tromsø

Vadso

Hammerfest

Tromsø0 KM 100

Lundin Norway Licenses

Johan Castberg

Goliat

WistingWisting

355 MMbo

Goliat195 MMbo

Snøhvit1.7 Bn boe

Johan Castberg550 MMbo

Alta/Gohta115–390 MMboe

2017 Wells

2018 Prospects

Alta EWT

Svanefjell ProspectComplete - dry hole

Fields

(2) Lundin estimates of gross unrisked prospective resources

(1) NPD estimate Jan 2018 - yet to find resources

Gjøkåsen Shallow Prospect768 MMboe(2)

Gjøkåsen Deep Prospect428 MMboe(2)

Large underexplored area ~120 wildcat wells drilled 7.3 Bn boe yet to find (1)

5 significant discoveries to date >2.5 Bn boe of commercial resources Area producing 500 Mboepd by 2027

Exciting 2018 exploration programme 3 wells

Continue to build position 2017 APA, 24th Round

28Lundin Petroleum

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Norwegian North SeaExploration - Significant Potential

0 Km 40

(1) Lundin estimates of gross unrisked prospective resources (2) NPD estimates Jan 2018 - yet to find resources(3) Operator estimates of gross resources

Alvheim Area

Mandal High Area

Utsira High

UK

Norw

ay

Norway

Denmark

Significant remaining prospectivity 4.6 Bn boe yet to find(2)

Continue to build position Deals / APA 2017

New exploration core area – Mandal High

Lundin NorwayLicences

2018 Prospects

JK Prospect243 MMboe(1)

Driva/Oppdal434 MMboe(1)

North Sea40–100 MMboe (3)

28–52 MMboe (2)

14-78 MMboe (3)

Gekko appraisal

Frosk Oil Discovery30–60 MMboe (3)

Froskelår92 MMboe (1)

Rolvsnes appraisal

Luno II appraisal

Lille Prinsen Oil Discovery15–35 MMboe (3)

Appraisal upside >100 MMboe (1)

Rumpetroll93 MMboe (1)

Bergen

Stavanger

29Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin Petroleum

Listed on Nasdaq Stockholm

Shares in free-float approx. 52%

Tickers: LUPE.SS, LUPE.ST, ADR: LUPEY

Equinor

Institutional Investors

Retail Other

Lundin Family

Scandinaviaexcluding Sweden

UK, Ireland

Sweden

Rest of Europe

Rest of the World

USA

Shareholder Structure

August 2018Source: IPREO

340.4 millionshares

20%

28%

8% 10%

34%

18%

24%

11%

11%

10%26%

30Lundin Petroleum

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Lundin PetroleumESG Supported Initiatives

Strong track record of growth and delivery over the years

Our Global Compactcommitment

We support the 10 United Nations Global Compact Principles

United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Promotion of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) throughout the value chain.

Global ReportingInitiative (GRI)

Reporting according to the GRI G4 Guidelines.

Extractive IndustryTransparency Initiative

Support and promotion of EITI’s efforts to combat corruption.

31Lundin Petroleum

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Disclaimer

Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements made and information contained herein constitute "forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable securities legislation). Such statements and information (together, "forward-looking statements") relate to future events, including the Company's future performance, business prospects or opportunities. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimates of reserves and/or resources, future production levels, future capital expenditures and their allocation to exploration and development activities, future drilling and other exploration and development activities. Ultimate recovery of reserves or resources are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management.

All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Statements concerning proven and probable reserves and resource estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements and reflect conclusions that are based on certain assumptions that the reserves and resources can be economically exploited. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. No assurance can be given that these expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be relied upon. These statements speak only as on the date of the information and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties relating to, among other things, operational risks (including exploration and development risks), productions costs, availability of drilling equipment, reliance on key personnel, reserve estimates, health, safety and environmental issues, legal risks and regulatory changes, competition, geopolitical risk, and financial risks. These risks and uncertainties are described in more detail under the heading “Risks and Risk Management” and elsewhere in the Company’s annual report. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risk factors should not be construed as exhaustive. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.

NP

Page 33: Lundin Petroleum Corporate Presentation

www.lundin-petroleum.com