lundin petroleum corporate presentation
TRANSCRIPT
CorporatePresentationOctober 2018
17 Aug 18 WF12414
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
SEK
/Share
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
UK Spin-off~700 MUSD
IPC Spin-off~410 MUSD
Dividend Payment 4 SEK/share
CAGR >30%Dividend 2019MUSD1.2Bn USD
Liquidity
>160~20% CAGR growth from 2018
Mboepdby 2022
Industry Leading
~4 USD/boeLow Opex
>10Bn USDMarket Cap
~1Bn boeResource base
≥350
Lundin PetroleumA Leading European Independent E&P Company
2Lundin Petroleum
Organic growth strategy
NCS ranks in top 10 worldwide exploration areas(1)
Significant yet to find resources >16 billion barrels(2)
Track record of company-making discoveries 6 successes out of 7 E&A wells drilled in 2018 2018 Successes: Luno II, Lille Prinsen, Frosk, Rolvsnes, Alta, Gekko
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0.7 Lundin Petroleum finding costs(3)USD/boe
Norway
HammerfestHammerfest
StavangerStavangerOsloOslo
HarstadHarstad
Alvheim Area
Mandal High
Frøya High/Froan Basin
Loppa High
Southeastern TrendSouthern Barents Sea7.3 billion barrels(2)
Norwegian Sea4.7 billion barrels(2)
North Sea4.6 billion barrels(2)
Utsira High Area
(2) NPD estimate January 2018(3) Post tax
(1) Woodmac
Lundin PetroleumNorway Pure Play
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Lundin PetroleumKey Operational Metrics
2P Reserves Production Operating Costs
Net
MM
bo
e
Net
Mb
oep
d
US
D/b
oe
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
654714
2017
726
21
59
2017 2018Guidance
8678–82 10.7
6.8
2017 2018Guidance
4.25 <4.0
Operating Cash Flow
Mill
ion
US
D
2015 2016
550
860
(1)Oil price range 55 to 70 USD/bbl
2017 2018 (1)
1,530
Strong track record of organic growth and delivery
4Lundin Petroleum
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Committed Projects Only« the do nothing case »
Opex Guidance (USD/boe)
2015 2016 2017 2018Guidance
Long-termGuidance
10.70
6.80
4.25 <4.0 3.90to
4.40
Lundin PetroleumLong-term Production Growth
2015
21
59
86 78-82
>130
>160
2016 2017 2018Guidance
Growth of ~20% CAGR
J. SverdrupPhase 1
(late 2019)
J. SverdrupPlateau(2022)
Production Guidance (Mboepd)
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Lundin PetroleumFinancially Transformational-Years Ahead
Cash tax dueAs % of EBITDA
Assumes: 2P Reserves Case only and 250 MUSD E&A for 2018, ~200 MUSD per year thereafter
EBIT
DA
Bill
ion
US
D
1.5(1)
0.8(1)
0.3(1)
1.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
201720162015 2018 JS Phase 1 JS Phase 2
0%0%0% ~0-4% ~40-55% ~55-60%
1.4
55 USD/bbl + 2% pa escalation
70 USD/bbl + 2% pa escalation
2020+
Capital flexibility to further
increase Dividend
2019
≥350 MUSD
2018
4 SEK/share
Dividends
(1) Data from continuing operations following the IPC spin-off
6Lundin Petroleum
(1) Sources NOROG/IOGP for world and Norway data (2016 averages). Edvard Grieg’s data is from 2017. All data is in kgCO2 e/boe (incl. methane). Johan Sverdrup full field estimate data is in kgCO2 /boe,data updated August 2018(2) 2017W
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8.18
One of lowest carbon intensity oil companies in World
Significant reduction at Edvard Grieg from 2022 through power from shore
~25% of R&D funding towards emission reduction
Commitment to Low Carbon IntensityLundin Petroleum
NorwayEnergy ManagementPower from shoreEnergy ManagementPower from shore
World
Emis
sio
ns
inte
nsi
ty(1
)
EdvardGrieg
J. Sverdrup
~20
~10
~5
~0.7
AA
ESG Ratings(2)
Outperformer
Prime Status
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Key AssetsLundin Petroleum
Alvheim Area
Utsira High Area
Alvheim
Volund
Bøyla
Edvard Grieg
Johan Sverdrup
DevelopmentProduction
Production
8Lundin Petroleum
Gas Export to SAGEOil Export to Grane
Edvard Grieg – Significant Reserves IncreaseLundin Petroleum
OPEX 3.59 USD/boe(1)
(1) 1H 2018 actual, includes tariff netting
2018 production efficiency guided at 95%
2017 year-end reserves increase (+51 MMboe gross) Recovery rate increased from 38% to 50% (2P only)
PDO development drilling completed
Resource upside - Luno II, Lille Prinsen, Rolvsnes, Goddo
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Cumulative Production
Edvard GriegGross Reserves/Resources (MMboe)
2017
274
+47%
353
PDO
186
2C Contingent Resources
Remaining 2P Reserves
3P Reserves
Edvard Grieg (WI 65%)
Ivar Aasen (WI 1.385%)
Lille Prinsen (WI 20%) Luno II (WI 65%)
Rolvsnes (WI 50%)
Johan Sverdrup (WI 22.6%)Goddo Prospect (WI 40%)
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Edvard GriegProduction Plateau Extended by further 2 Years
0
20
40
60
80
100
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Gross Production (Mboepd)
2P ReservesPlateau to end 2019
End PlateauPDO
3P ReservesPlateau to mid-2021
2C Resources (infill wells)Satellite opportunities(Luno II, Rolvsnes, Goddo)
2P reserves
3Preserves
Potential for production plateau to continue to shift to the right
10Lundin Petroleum
Lundin PetroleumAlvheim Area – Continuous Reserves Growth
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Strong reservoir performance
Portfolio of good infill drilling opportunities
Frosk discovery and exploration upside >200 MMboe (3)
OPEX 4.77 USD/boe (2)
Infill opportunities breakeven ~30 USD/boe
(1) As at 31 December 2017 (2) 1H 2018 Actual (3) Gross resources
Bøyla
Frosk Discovery
Froskelår - exploration well 2018
Rumpetroll - exploration well 2018 ViperKobra
Kameleon - infill well 2018
Gekko - appraisal well 2018
Alvheim FPSO
Alvheim
Volund
+86%
2C Contingent ResourcesCumulative Production
3P Reserves
Remaining 2P Reserves
AlvheimGross Reserves/Resources (MMboe)(1)
PDO
257
571
2017
479
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Lundin Petroleum Organic Growth Strategy - Big Fields Get Bigger
600
400
100
500
300
200
0
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
Gro
ss M
Mb
oe
Alvheim AreaPDO End 2017
86%
Edvard GriegPDO End 2017
47%
Johan SverdrupPDO End 2017(1)
10%
(1) Before resource increase announced by Equinor August 2018
(2) 2P reserves is Proved plus Probable reserves
(3) 3P reserves is Proved plus Probable plus Possible reserves
Cumulative Production
2C Contingent Resources
Remaining 2P Reserves(2)
3P Reserves(3)
12Lundin Petroleum
Lundin PetroleumJohan Sverdrup - Key Numbers
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Phase 1First oil Nov 2019
440 Mbopd
Full FieldFirst oil Q4 2022
660 Mbopd
PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Phase 1PDO 123 Bn NOK
Current 86 Bn NOK
Phase 2PDO 85 Bn NOK(2)
Current 41 Bn NOK
GROSS CAPEX(1)GROSS RESOURCES
(Previous 2.1–3.1 billion boe)
2.2–3.2 billion boe
BREAK EVEN PRICE
Full Field
<20 USD/boe
(1) Nominal, NOK 6:USD, fixed currency, excluding IOR(2) Original PDO
Equinor
Lundin
Petoro
Aker BP
Total
40.0267%
22.6000%
17.3600%
11.5733%
8.4400%
Working Interest – Johan Sverdrup Unit
13Lundin Petroleum
Johan SverdrupPhase 1 on Schedule
2017 2018 2019
Riser
Topsides InstallationSchedule
Phase 2PDO submitted
Phase 1expected first oil November 2019
JacketInstallationSchedule
PipelineInstallationSchedule
Drilling
Installation completed
Process LQ
Process LQ
~80% complete
Gas Pipeline
Oil Pipeline
DrillingRiser
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Organic Growth Strategy - Significant near Term Upside PotentialLundin Petroleum
Mandal High
Frøya High/Froan Basin
Southeastern Trend
Core areas
(1) Net resources(2) Net unrisked prospective resources
50%increase inacreage footprintfrom last year
coreexplorationareas6
exploration wellsin 201811
~600 MMboe(2)
appraisal wellsin 20184
>200 MMboe(1)
Norway
HammerfestHammerfest
StavangerStavangerUtsira High Area
Alvheim Area
Loppa High
OsloOslo
HarstadHarstad
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Exploration ProgrammeLundin PetroleumLundin Petroleum Southern Barents Sea
3 exploration wells in 2018
Alvheim Area
3 exploration wells in 2018
Frøya High/Froan Basin
1 exploration well in 2018
Utsira High
2 exploration well in 2018
Mandal High
1 exploration well in 2018 (2) Gross unrisked prospective resources
(1) Gross resources
2018 programme - 10 wells
2 oil discoveries out of 3 wells drilled - Frosk and Lille Prinsen
Programme update - 2 follow-up wells to Frosk discovery
Silfari exploration well currently ongoing
Area upside potential>200 MMboe(2)
Appraisal upside>100 MMboe(2)
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Appraisal - Progressing Resources to ReservesLundin Petroleum
AppraisalRolvsnes14-78 MMboe(1)
Alta EWTCompleted
(2) NPD
(1) Operator estimates of gross resources
28–52 MMboe(2)
GekkoFrosk30-60 MMboe(1) Norway
North Sea
Norwegian Sea
Southern Barents Sea
HammerfestHammerfest
StavangerStavangerUtsira High Area
Alvheim Area
Loppa High
Luno II appraisal success Gross resources increased to 40–100 MMboe
PDO early 2019
Rolvsnes appraisal drilling/testing success Gross resources increased to 14–78 MMboe Area gross potential resources of >250 MMboe
Alta/Gohta appraisal drilling/testing Alta EWT successfully completed
Frosk discovery 2 follow-up wells in 2H 2018 Frosk long-term production test in 2019
Lille Prinsen discovery Appraisal planned in 2019
Gekko appraisal success Gross resources 28-52 MMboe(2)
OsloOslo
HarstadHarstad
Luno II 40-100 MMboe(1)
Lille Prinsen15-35 MMboe(1)
6 potential new projects beyond “the do nothing case”
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Strong production growth from committed projects
Industry leading low operating costs
Strong cash flow generation
Sustainable dividend
Continued focus on Organic Growth – significant successes to date
Business development – opportunistic strategy
Deliver high ESG standards in a sustainable way
The Sustainable Organic Growth StoryLundin Petroleum
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Lundin PetroleumKey Messages
Strong production growth with low operating costs
Exciting organic growth strategy
Continued strong focus on cost discipline and operating efficiency
Responsible operator with focus on HSE and risk management
2015 2016
Production Guidance(Mboepd)
59.3
2017
20.7
>150
>120
2015 2016 2017 J. SverdrupPhase 1
OPEX(USD/boe)
32
6.8
~4.54.25
10.7
J. SverdrupPlateau
J. SverdrupPhase 1
86.1
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Lundin Petroleum
Appendix
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Lundin PetroleumFinancial Highlights - 2017
Operating Cash Flowfrom continuing operations
EBITDAfrom continuing operations
Net Resultfrom continuing operations
200
0
400
600
800
1,200
752.5
1,501.5
100%
2016 2017
Mill
ion
US
D
0
1,600
1,400
1,000
200
400
600
800
1,200
1,600
1,400
1,000
2016 2017
Mill
ion
US
D
2016(2) 2017
(1) Includes increase in net foreign exchange gain compared to 2016 of MUSD 259.5 (2) Includes a non-cash impairment change of MUSD 422.6 after tax in relation to Russia.
Mill
ion
US
D 0
200
400
-200
-400-399.3
380.9(1)
857.9
1,530
78%
20Lundin Petroleum
(1) Nominal values - 2% inflation
Mill
ion
US
D
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
2018 2019 2020 2021
Forecast Development Expenditure (Million USD) (1)
CMD 2018
Assumes 2P Case only
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Lundin PetroleumForecast Development Expenditure
Committed Projects Only
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Cash Flow, Debt Position and LiquidityLundin Petroleum
201720182019Total 3.9
3.8
Net Debt31 Dec 17
Net Debt30 Jun 18
Cash Flows from
OperatingActivities
Cash Flows from
InvestingActivities
DebtRepayment
LoanModificationFees Paid
CashBuild
MU
SD
Bn
US
D
Facility Size 5 Bn USD807.4
16.7-16.9
DividendPayments
-153.1
Purchase Own Shares
-14.3
-60.0
-546.4
Free CashflowMUSD 261.0
Available LiquidityHeadroom
1.2Bn USD
As of 1H 2018
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Lundin PetroleumFunding and Liquidity - 2018 Guidance
0
20
40
60
100
80
OCF(1)LiquidityHeadroomstart 2018
Capex/E&A
Finance/G&A
2017 Dividends
LiquidityHeadroomend 2018
45
2018 Guidance, Brent 65 USD/boe
39
96
60
39
Tax Pools of USD 2.5(2) billion as per start 2018
(1) Operating cash flow (2) NOK 8.0:USD
US
D/b
oe
23Lundin Petroleum
Cutting-edge technology
Subsurfaceexpertise
Maximising recovery
New reservoirsand plays
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Organic Value Creation Through InnovationLundin Petroleum
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Lundin Petroleum2018 Development Activity
2018 Budget 800 MUSD
Molde
Stavanger
Oslo
Norway
Barents Sea
Norwegian Sea
North Sea
0 KM 200
Edvard Grieg
Other
Johan Sverdrup
Alvheim Area
Utsira High
Alvheim Area2 infill wells
Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 Facilities construction/installation Development drilling
Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 PDO submittal Detailed design
Edvard Grieg Development drilling
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Lundin Petroleum2018 Exploration & Appraisal Activity
2018 Budget 300 MUSD
Molde
Stavanger
Oslo
Norway
Barents Sea
Norwegian Sea
North Sea
0 KM 200
Appraisal ~48%
Exploration ~52%
11 Exploration Wells4 Appraisal Wells
Southern Barents Sea Area
Mandal High Area
Frøya High/Froan Basin Area
Utsira High Area
Alvheim AreaFrosk Discovery
Lille Prinsen Discovery
Silfari Prospect
Driva / Oppdal Prospects
Alta EWT
Luno II AppraisalRolvsnes Appraisal
J. Sverdrup PDO Phase 2
Gekko Appraisal
Appraisal
Discovery
Exploration
JK Prospect
Gjøkåsen ShallowProspect
Gjøkåsen DeepProspect
Svanefjell Prospect
Rumpetroll Prospect
Froskelår Prospect
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(2) 3P Reserves is Proved plus Probable plus Possible remaining reserves
(1) 2P Reserves is Proved plus Probable remaining reserves
(4) Reserve life index (RLI) is the ratio of remaining reserves and the current annual production forecast(5) Independently audited by ERC Equipoise Ltd (ERCE)(6) 2C Contingent Resources
(3) As per industry standards the reserve replacement ratio (RRR) is defined as the ratio of reserves additions to production during the year, excluding acquisitions and sales
Year-end 2017 Net Reserves and Resources (MMboe)
Lundin Petroleum
3P RRR(3): 99%3P RLI(4): 28 Years
2P RRR(3): 144%2P RLI(4): 23 Years
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Southern Barents SeaExploration - Early Days
Hammerfest
Vadso
Tromsø
Vadso
Hammerfest
Tromsø0 KM 100
Lundin Norway Licenses
Johan Castberg
Goliat
WistingWisting
355 MMbo
Goliat195 MMbo
Snøhvit1.7 Bn boe
Johan Castberg550 MMbo
Alta/Gohta115–390 MMboe
2017 Wells
2018 Prospects
Alta EWT
Svanefjell ProspectComplete - dry hole
Fields
(2) Lundin estimates of gross unrisked prospective resources
(1) NPD estimate Jan 2018 - yet to find resources
Gjøkåsen Shallow Prospect768 MMboe(2)
Gjøkåsen Deep Prospect428 MMboe(2)
Large underexplored area ~120 wildcat wells drilled 7.3 Bn boe yet to find (1)
5 significant discoveries to date >2.5 Bn boe of commercial resources Area producing 500 Mboepd by 2027
Exciting 2018 exploration programme 3 wells
Continue to build position 2017 APA, 24th Round
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Norwegian North SeaExploration - Significant Potential
0 Km 40
(1) Lundin estimates of gross unrisked prospective resources (2) NPD estimates Jan 2018 - yet to find resources(3) Operator estimates of gross resources
Alvheim Area
Mandal High Area
Utsira High
UK
Norw
ay
Norway
Denmark
Significant remaining prospectivity 4.6 Bn boe yet to find(2)
Continue to build position Deals / APA 2017
New exploration core area – Mandal High
Lundin NorwayLicences
2018 Prospects
JK Prospect243 MMboe(1)
Driva/Oppdal434 MMboe(1)
North Sea40–100 MMboe (3)
28–52 MMboe (2)
14-78 MMboe (3)
Gekko appraisal
Frosk Oil Discovery30–60 MMboe (3)
Froskelår92 MMboe (1)
Rolvsnes appraisal
Luno II appraisal
Lille Prinsen Oil Discovery15–35 MMboe (3)
Appraisal upside >100 MMboe (1)
Rumpetroll93 MMboe (1)
Bergen
Stavanger
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Lundin Petroleum
Listed on Nasdaq Stockholm
Shares in free-float approx. 52%
Tickers: LUPE.SS, LUPE.ST, ADR: LUPEY
Equinor
Institutional Investors
Retail Other
Lundin Family
Scandinaviaexcluding Sweden
UK, Ireland
Sweden
Rest of Europe
Rest of the World
USA
Shareholder Structure
August 2018Source: IPREO
340.4 millionshares
20%
28%
8% 10%
34%
18%
24%
11%
11%
10%26%
30Lundin Petroleum
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Lundin PetroleumESG Supported Initiatives
Strong track record of growth and delivery over the years
Our Global Compactcommitment
We support the 10 United Nations Global Compact Principles
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
Promotion of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) throughout the value chain.
Global ReportingInitiative (GRI)
Reporting according to the GRI G4 Guidelines.
Extractive IndustryTransparency Initiative
Support and promotion of EITI’s efforts to combat corruption.
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Disclaimer
Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements made and information contained herein constitute "forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable securities legislation). Such statements and information (together, "forward-looking statements") relate to future events, including the Company's future performance, business prospects or opportunities. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimates of reserves and/or resources, future production levels, future capital expenditures and their allocation to exploration and development activities, future drilling and other exploration and development activities. Ultimate recovery of reserves or resources are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management.
All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Statements concerning proven and probable reserves and resource estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements and reflect conclusions that are based on certain assumptions that the reserves and resources can be economically exploited. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. No assurance can be given that these expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be relied upon. These statements speak only as on the date of the information and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties relating to, among other things, operational risks (including exploration and development risks), productions costs, availability of drilling equipment, reliance on key personnel, reserve estimates, health, safety and environmental issues, legal risks and regulatory changes, competition, geopolitical risk, and financial risks. These risks and uncertainties are described in more detail under the heading “Risks and Risk Management” and elsewhere in the Company’s annual report. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risk factors should not be construed as exhaustive. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
NP
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