lumpkin family foundation july 15, 2010 i.state of the world ii.building resilient communities
TRANSCRIPT
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Lumpkin Family Foundation
July 15, 2010
I.State of the World
II.Building Resilient Communities
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If a path to the better there be,
it begins with a full look at the worst.
Thomas Hardy, 1887
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Winds of Change
Population
Peak Oil
Climate Change
Ecosystem and Resource Decline
Global Finance
Social Anarchy
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Population
World population has increased from one billion people in 1800 to 6.8 billion today, and continues to increase by one billion people every 14 years.
Meanwhile, the majority of the current population lives in poverty, 2 billion lack access to clean water and sanitation, and 1 billion are hungry.
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Ninth
Eighth
Seventh
Sixth
Fifth
Fourth
Third
Second
First Billion
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of Human History (1800)
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
15 (1975)
12 (1987)
12 (1999)
14 (2013)
14 (2027)
21 (2048)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
World Population Growth, in Billions
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United States in 2009
Population = 307 million
Annual increase = 3,461,200
49 million are “food insecure”
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Peak Oil
The rate of global oil production has peaked and is entering permanent decline.
No combination of alternative energy sources can fill the emerging gap between global demand and supply of oil.
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World Energy Use
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No silver bullet
Tar sands
Shale gas
Nuclear power
Hydrogen
Solar
Wind
……………………
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Climate change
The nearly 1°C increase in average global temperature during the last century is largely caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases and has resulted in major biological and physical changes.
Further increases of 2°C to 7°C are projected for this century along with impacts ranging from severe to disastrous.
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Current effects of global warming include:
Expansion of arid regions
Acidification of oceans
Melting of glaciers and arctic sea ice
Forest decline
Stronger storms
Spread of diseases
Sea level rise
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Additional warming this century:
Likeliest range 2°C to 7°C
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European heat wave – August 2003
Temperatures exceeding 38 °C; hottest August on record
35,000 deaths
10% of Portugal’s forests burned
$1.5 billion crop damage
Record glacial melt
Low rivers disrupt transport and drinking water supplies
Averaged across the continent, temperatures were 2.3 °C above normal.
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Ecosystem and resource decline
Every major global ecosystem is in decline along with their ability to provide resources and services essential to human well-being.
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About 50 mm (almost 2 inches) per hectare (2.5 acres) of soil blew away from cropland in Kansas during the winter of 1995-96. That's the equivalent of 650 tons of topsoil per hectare.
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An unstable global financial system
Fiat currencies and a debt-based monetary system require infinite economic growth, while a finite planet ensures that infinite growth is impossible.
Exponential increases in money supply, private and public debt, and financial derivatives make major disruptions of the global financial system likely in the near future.
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Total debt obligations of the US government exceed $70 trillion.
And then there is:
Consumer debt
Trade debt
European and Third World debt
Financial derivatives
Which combined dwarf the US government debt.
GDP of the planet = $58 trillion!
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Social anarchy
Worldwide, central control by national governments is declining as power shifts to private enterprises, criminal groups, militias, tribes, or general lawlessness.
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Collapse
Taken together, these trends are symptoms and causes of an irreversible collapse of the global economic and social system.
In response, communities worldwide are relocalizing their economies and increasing their resilience in order to survive and even prosper.
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