LPG for Better Life Quality andMitigating Energy PovertyCase: School LPG Project

Barış Sanlı

barissanli2@gmail.com

Index

• Turkish LPG Market Overview( Through maps & analytics)

• Outlook (Monthly Forecasts)

• Rationality for such projects ( Geography & LPG market segmentation)

• Next Steps

• Conclusions

Turkish LPG Market Outlook

Population / Population Density

Annual Autogas Sales

Number of Autogas Stations

Sales per Autogas Station

LPG Market Forecasts

• 5 scenarios• Very high (growth), high, moderate(reference), low, very low growth

• Based on historical time series

• Monthly forecasts

• March 2015

Autogas

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000Ja

n-1

1

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

De

c-1

3

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-1

5

Jan

-16

Jun

-16

No

v-1

6

Ap

r-1

7

Sep

-17

Feb

-18

Jul-

18

De

c-1

8

May

-19

Oct

-19

Mar

-20

Au

g-2

0

Jan

-21

Jun

-21

No

v-2

1

Ap

r-2

2

Sep

-22

Feb

-23

Jul-

23

De

c-2

3

May

-24

Oct

-24

Otogaz Çok Yüksek

Otogaz Yüksek

Otogaz Referans

Otogaz Düşük

Otogaz Çok Düşük

Cylinder

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

Jan

-20

May

-20

Sep

-20

Jan

-21

May

-21

Sep

-21

Jan

-22

May

-22

Sep

-22

Jan

-23

May

-23

Sep

-23

Jan

-24

May

-24

Sep

-24

Tüplü Çok Yüksek

Tüplü Yüksek

Tüplü Referans

Tüplü Düşük

Tüplü Çok Düşük

Autogas Sales & Share in Total

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Autogas Sales (LHS) & Share in total LPG Sales (RHS)

Autogas(ton) Share of Autogas

CO2 Emissions

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mily

on

lar Gasoline only(Simulated) vs Gasoline+LPG (Real data)

emissions

CO2(Real data) CO2(Gasoline)

1 Ton LPG = 1.1 Ton Gasoline, Calorifically 1.07 times, calculations based on L/km on Turkish user experience

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mily

on

lar

Saved Emissions (million tonne CO2)

Saved Emissions

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Turkey -LPG vs Gasoline

Liquefied petroleum gases Gasoline

Turkish LPG Outlook - Total

autogas

Cylinder

Why?

•Government’s decision to bring natural gasto all major districts

•Natural gas replaced bulk & cylinder sales

•Autogas (due to tax advantage) replacedgasoline

Policy goals

•Balance bulk and cylinder usage in the total consumption

•Use LPG to impact lives of poor people

•Bring different stakeholders and let themcommit to the goals

High landsLots of hydroLess ConsumptionLow lands

Wind+SolarConsumption centers

Fossil generation dominatesMajor ConsumptionHigh Economic Activity

4A line : Antep-Adana-Ankara-Adapazari

Two major projects

•Use LPG to heat rural schools

•Decrease infant deaths (Development indicator) at higher attitudes with specialheating stoves (sensors & chimney outlet &)

OkuLPG - SchooLPG

• Where we can make the biggest impact?• Rural schools

• Education

• Air quality (importance for child developments)

• Increase attendance (school is warmer than house)

• + Japanese idea (School as a center for the village especially after majordisasters)

SchooLPG – Possible Stakeholders

• Ministry of Education (Decides the schools toimplement, tracking attendance)

• Chamber of Mechanical Engineers (Technical responsibility)

• LPG Distribution Companies (Hardware and LPG supplies)

• Public Health Administration (Air quality & trackingthe results)

• Ministry of Development (Based on pilot results, decision for long term commitment)

Which schools?

•Less than 5 classrooms

•No chance of getting naturalgas in the next 20 years time frame (not economical)

•Rural

Economic incentives

• Turkish law gives tax breakes for schoolbuilding or refitting

• The free LPG supplied by distributioncompanies will be tax deductable exceptfor Special Consumption Tax

• Creating a new market for LPG Companies

• Cleaner schools for Ministry of Education(with less manpower – no one to cleanstove)

Statistics to track

• Attendances

• Visit to health clinics by school children• Change in frequency

• Air quality

• Surveys• Children

• Teachers

• Parents

For competition

• After 2 year pilot program, schools will buy LPG through tenders

• What will happen to bulk tanks?• Chamber of ME will inspect and transfer with relevant checks

• An electronic system to track life cycle

• Responsibility will be transferred to new LPG supplier after tender

Next Steps – Quest for High Impact projects

Protocol signing between relevantparties- For 2015 we have a pilot school, but time frame is short

Research on the feasibility of nextProject Preventing Infant Deaths andimproving Turkey’s Development Indicators

Conclusion

• Turkish autogas market is in healthy condition

• But bulk & cylinder segments were ebbed a lot

• Tried to find the areas where LPG has high impact

• Communicate stakeholders

• Make sure economic incentives are there

• Start the pilot

• Track the results

Thank you

• Barış Sanlı

• barissanli2@gmail.com