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BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH BANKING AND INSURANCE CONFERENCE LONDON 2 OCT 2014 Bjørn Erik Næss CFO of DNB Group Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver shareholder return

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Page 1: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH BANKING AND INSURANCE CONFERENCE LONDON 2 OCT 2014 Bjørn Erik Næss CFO of DNB Group

Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver shareholder return

Page 2: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

8.5 % 9.2 % 9.4 %10.7 % 11.8 % 12.1 %

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014

10.6 %13.6 %

11.4 % 11.7 %13.2 % 14.1 %

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014

DNB’s financial targets towards 2016

above 12 per cent Return on equity CET1 capital ratio

13.5-14.0 per cent

Requirement Target

Return on equity Per cent

CET 1 capital ratio- Transition rules Per cent

2

Page 3: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

Pre-tax operating profit before impairments (NOK bn)

DNB delivers healthy profit growth

3

Page 4: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

Robust Norwegian economy: - expected GDP growth of 2% and unemployment to stay at a low level

Gross Domestic Product Mainland, year on year

Unemployment rate Per cent

Source: Statistics Norway

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

4

Page 5: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

Higher interest rates in Norway than in rest of Europe (and Sweden)

5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

31.12.2008 31.12.2010 31.12.2012 31.12.2014 31.12.2016

NOK SEK ECB

Central Bank rates Per cent from 31 Dec 2008 till 31 Dec 2018

Forecast*

Source: Thomson Reuters, * Forecast by DNB Markets

Page 6: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

100 200

560

770

2009 1H 2014Other depositsFree equity/low yielding deposits

Potentially more repricing opportunities for deposits despite higher level of low yielding liabilities

6

Deposits base with higher interest and sum of low yielding deposits and free equity NOK billion

Page 7: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

Stable volume weighted combined spread Per cent

1.98 2.012.18 2.21

2.322.42 2.42 2.42 2.39

(0.11) (0.13)(0.27) (0.30) (0.24) (0.29) (0.30) (0.29) (0.27)

1.18 1.18 1.22 1.201.28 1.29 1.30 1.25 1.27

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14

Lending spread

Deposit spread

Combined spread- weighted average

7

Page 8: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

Sale of insurance products

Money transfer and banking services

Asset management and custodial services

Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc.

Real estate broking

4 208 4 426

1H 2014

More emphasis on capital light products

Expect higher growth rate for:

Defined contribution for life insurance

Increased sales of property & casualty insurance

Corporate finance within bond issuance and debt capital markets

Net commission and fees As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in NOK million

8

1H 2013

Page 9: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

In a low interest rate environment cost efficiency is an important competitive advantage

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14

DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske

9

Development for relative cost-income-ratio for Nordic banks Index base year 2009 = 100

Page 10: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

Continued reduction in non-performing loans 1)

19.1 18.419.5 19.7 19.9

23.3 22.920.7

16.4 16.1

1.711.55 1.50 1.50 1.48

1.71 1.701.38

1.191.05

1.050.88

1.10 1.16 1.101.37 1.39

1.100.91 0.81

31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 March 30 June 30 Sept. 31 Dec. 31 March 30 June

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Baltics and Poland

DNB Group excl. Baltics and Poland

As a percentage of net loans

As a percentage of net loans excl. Baltics and Poland

Per cent

NOK billion

1) Includes non-performing commitments and commitments subjectto individual impairment. Accumulated individual impairment is deducted.

10

Page 11: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

12,1% 10,7%

9,0% 9,9% 10,3%

11,6%

DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske

CET1-ratio trans.rules

All ratios as of 30 June 2014 in per cent excluding S&P RAC-ratio as of 31 Dec 2013. Simple “Leverage ratio” = CET1 / Total assets

Stricter regulatory regime than for peers: - Capital ratios for DNB versus its Nordic peers

14,4% 15,2%

20,1%

16,0%

20,9%

14,4%

DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske

CET1 Basel III 8,9% 9,5%

8,6% 8,3%

10,0%

8,1%

DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske

S&P RAC-ratio

5,4%

3,6% 3,7% 3,6% 4,1% 3,9%

DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske

Simple "Leverage ratio"

11

Page 12: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

DNB: Stronger earnings and increased solidity

73

96

121 133 109

128

161 178

Avg'07-11 2012 2013 YTD 2014ann.

Dividends 25% levelRetained earnings

8.5%9.2% 9.4%

10.7%11.8% 12.1%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H2014

Long-term dividend policy intact

min 25 per cent

2013-2016 during capital build up phase

50 per cent Long-term policy

CET1-ratio transition rules Retained earnings (bps)

12

Page 13: Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver ... · Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc. Real estate broking. 4 208 . ... As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in

Q&A