low rates and heavy regulations: how to deliver ... · corporate finance, credit and securities...
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BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH BANKING AND INSURANCE CONFERENCE LONDON 2 OCT 2014 Bjørn Erik Næss CFO of DNB Group
Low rates and heavy regulations: How to deliver shareholder return
8.5 % 9.2 % 9.4 %10.7 % 11.8 % 12.1 %
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014
10.6 %13.6 %
11.4 % 11.7 %13.2 % 14.1 %
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014
DNB’s financial targets towards 2016
above 12 per cent Return on equity CET1 capital ratio
13.5-14.0 per cent
Requirement Target
Return on equity Per cent
CET 1 capital ratio- Transition rules Per cent
2
Pre-tax operating profit before impairments (NOK bn)
DNB delivers healthy profit growth
3
Robust Norwegian economy: - expected GDP growth of 2% and unemployment to stay at a low level
Gross Domestic Product Mainland, year on year
Unemployment rate Per cent
Source: Statistics Norway
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
4
Higher interest rates in Norway than in rest of Europe (and Sweden)
5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
31.12.2008 31.12.2010 31.12.2012 31.12.2014 31.12.2016
NOK SEK ECB
Central Bank rates Per cent from 31 Dec 2008 till 31 Dec 2018
Forecast*
Source: Thomson Reuters, * Forecast by DNB Markets
100 200
560
770
2009 1H 2014Other depositsFree equity/low yielding deposits
Potentially more repricing opportunities for deposits despite higher level of low yielding liabilities
6
Deposits base with higher interest and sum of low yielding deposits and free equity NOK billion
Stable volume weighted combined spread Per cent
1.98 2.012.18 2.21
2.322.42 2.42 2.42 2.39
(0.11) (0.13)(0.27) (0.30) (0.24) (0.29) (0.30) (0.29) (0.27)
1.18 1.18 1.22 1.201.28 1.29 1.30 1.25 1.27
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Lending spread
Deposit spread
Combined spread- weighted average
7
Sale of insurance products
Money transfer and banking services
Asset management and custodial services
Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc.
Real estate broking
4 208 4 426
1H 2014
More emphasis on capital light products
Expect higher growth rate for:
Defined contribution for life insurance
Increased sales of property & casualty insurance
Corporate finance within bond issuance and debt capital markets
Net commission and fees As of 30 June 2013 and 30 June 2014 in NOK million
8
1H 2013
In a low interest rate environment cost efficiency is an important competitive advantage
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14
DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske
9
Development for relative cost-income-ratio for Nordic banks Index base year 2009 = 100
Continued reduction in non-performing loans 1)
19.1 18.419.5 19.7 19.9
23.3 22.920.7
16.4 16.1
1.711.55 1.50 1.50 1.48
1.71 1.701.38
1.191.05
1.050.88
1.10 1.16 1.101.37 1.39
1.100.91 0.81
31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 March 30 June 30 Sept. 31 Dec. 31 March 30 June
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Baltics and Poland
DNB Group excl. Baltics and Poland
As a percentage of net loans
As a percentage of net loans excl. Baltics and Poland
Per cent
NOK billion
1) Includes non-performing commitments and commitments subjectto individual impairment. Accumulated individual impairment is deducted.
10
12,1% 10,7%
9,0% 9,9% 10,3%
11,6%
DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske
CET1-ratio trans.rules
All ratios as of 30 June 2014 in per cent excluding S&P RAC-ratio as of 31 Dec 2013. Simple “Leverage ratio” = CET1 / Total assets
Stricter regulatory regime than for peers: - Capital ratios for DNB versus its Nordic peers
14,4% 15,2%
20,1%
16,0%
20,9%
14,4%
DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske
CET1 Basel III 8,9% 9,5%
8,6% 8,3%
10,0%
8,1%
DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske
S&P RAC-ratio
5,4%
3,6% 3,7% 3,6% 4,1% 3,9%
DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske
Simple "Leverage ratio"
11
DNB: Stronger earnings and increased solidity
73
96
121 133 109
128
161 178
Avg'07-11 2012 2013 YTD 2014ann.
Dividends 25% levelRetained earnings
8.5%9.2% 9.4%
10.7%11.8% 12.1%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H2014
Long-term dividend policy intact
min 25 per cent
2013-2016 during capital build up phase
50 per cent Long-term policy
CET1-ratio transition rules Retained earnings (bps)
12
Q&A