Low Carbon Japan:Low Carbon Japan: 20502050A A ｒｅｓｅｒａｃｈｒｅｓｅｒａｃｈ ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ （２００４－２００８）（２００４－２００８）

Ｓ．ＮｉｓｈｉｏｋａＳ．Ｎｉｓｈｉｏｋａ ＰｒｏｊｅｃｔＰｒｏｊｅｃｔ ＬｅａｄｅｒＬｅａｄｅｒ

Deep cut of GHG into 20-40% by 2050

What will be the image of the LC society?

How to attain the goal?

How to change energy demand /supply structure?

脱温暖化2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

50 Experts from 19 countries and 6 international organizations;Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China)Africa: South Africa, NigeriaEurope: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, RussiaLatin America: Brazil, Mexico, ChileNorth America: US, Canada

A second workshop will be held in UK, 2007.

11stst workshop on Japan workshop on Japan –– UK Joint Research ProjectUK Joint Research ProjectDeveloping visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)

through sustainable development on June 2006through sustainable development on June 2006

Atmosphere730 (370ppm)

+ 3.2/year

Land 2,000 Soil 1,500

Vegetation 500

Fossil Fuel

38,000 単位１０億トン（Gt)

1.4/year 1.7/year

6.3/year

（GtC)Global Carbon Balance

Sea

Only half of fossil fuel emission is absorbed by the land and sea; the rest

accumulates in the air

Fossil emission: CO2 as CCurrent 6.3 Gt/yearFuture 20.0 Gt/year by 2100

1000ppm750ppm550ppm380ppm280ppm

Accumulation in the air: 750 Gt

annual increase 3.2 Gt （1.5ppm）

Q２: What is the dangerous level and rate of the change?

Q３: How should we turn off the tap to prevent a dangerous level being reached?

Risk management of carbon cycleWhatever stabilization level is set, the principle must be

emission = sequestrationQ１: Will natural sequestration remain at 3.1Gt?

450-550ppm?

Q４: Can we avoid dangerous change in time?If not, what adaptation strategy?

In 6.3emission

Out 3.1absorption

Parry and his team examined how global warming will affect a global population already facing water shortage, malaria, hunger and coastal flooding. The graph indicates a sudden increase in at risk population at around 1.5-2.0°C.

To avoid serious CC impacts, it is likely to be necessary of temperature raise stabilization below 2 degree compared with pre-industrialized level

IPCC TAR, 2001

22°°CC

Key message 1:Key message 1:““LowLow--carbon societies are necessary to avoid carbon societies are necessary to avoid

dangerous climate change.dangerous climate change.””

Relationship between human-induced GHG emissions, atmospheric GHG concentration, and increase in global mean temperature.

(Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy] Model)

BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

年

温室

効果

ガス

排出

量 (二

酸化

炭素

換算

：G

tC/年

)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

年

気温

上昇

(199

0年=0

.6℃

)

Temperature raise(global average)

Global GHG emissions

GHG475ppmGHG: Greenhouse gases

50% reduction

650550500

BaU

GHG475ppm

Glo

bal m

ean

tem

pera

ture

incr

ease

(o Cab

ove

the

pre-

indu

stria

l lev

el)

Year YearG

HG

em

issi

ons

(Gt-C

eq)

475

650550500

BaU

Forecasting from now and Backcasting from Forecasting from now and Backcasting from future prescribed/normative worldfuture prescribed/normative world

2020 20502000

Checkingyear

Long-term target year

Release of the study result

Technology development,socio-economic change projected by well calibrated dynamic models

Forecasting

Backcasting

Normative target world

Reference future world (BaU)

Service demand change

by changing social behavior, lifestyles

and institutions

Mitigation Technology

developmentRequiredTrend breaking

Intervention and Investment

Calculation of required intervention by dynamic models

Envi

ronm

enta

l pre

ssur

e

Sufficient calibration in order to reflect historical trends

Session2-2 Yuzuru Matsuoka

Scenario A Scenario B

Bustling, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban concentrated/Individualistic

Decentralized, Community-oriented, Self-sufficient

Centralized production /recycle

Produce locally, consume locally,

Convenient and Beneficial Social and Cultural Values

As for LCS visions, we prepared two As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but likely future societiesdifferent but likely future societies

Session2-2 Yuzuru Matsuoka

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

BaU Option1 Option2

2000 2050 2050 2050

Ener

gy d

eman

d in

resi

dent

ial （

Mto

e ） cooling heating hot water cooking lighting others

32% reductions withHigh eff. insulation,HEMS/Eco-life, etc

25% reductionswith heat pump,LED lighting,standby powercontrol, etc

Energy demand in residential sector, 2050

60% reduction by all kinds of countermeasures

Hydrogen, Natural gas with CCS, Nuclear

H2 and renewables

Biomass

2000

1000 200 300 400 500Primary energy supply (Mtoe)

600

Coal Oil Natural GasBiomass Nuclear HydroSolar/Wind

Both supply side and demand side countermeasures are required to achieve 70% CO2 reduction by 2050

Primary energy•Nuclear•Fossil fuel+CCS•PV/Wind•Biomass

Secondary energyElectricity/Heat/Hydrogen

Key message 2:Key message 2:““A portfolio of options and international A portfolio of options and international

cooperation are necessary to realize global LCS.cooperation are necessary to realize global LCS.””

Japan, 5%

Other, 44%

UK, 2% Germany, 3%Canada, 2% India, 5%

France, 2%

US, 24%

China, 12%

Japan, 5%

Other, 44%

UK, 2% Germany, 3%Canada, 2% India, 5%

France, 2%

US, 24%

China, 12%

CO2 emissions share in 2000

US

Canada

UK

France

China

India

W orld

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

CO

2 per

cap

ita e

mis

sion

s (t-C

/cap

)

GermanyMETI, Japan2030 scenario

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon SocietyIB1

IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

US: delay for tech development, global warming business

EU: Initiatives toward LCSJapan: Need long-term vision

Developing countries: earlierguidance toward LCS is key

$200/t-C scenario

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventGlobal Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

Surface Air Temperature Change (1990=0 oC)CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan

Change rate of carbon intensity (%/year)

Cha

nge

rate

of e

nerg

y in

tens

ity (%

/yea

r) With carbon capture and storage

(Source: Kawase et al. 2005)

Many scenarios aiming to 70-80% reduction in 2050 use the method of carbon capture and storage, although there are some scenarios that realize 80% reduction without carbon capture and storage.

–3

–2

–1

–3 –2 –1 0

0

Japan(90–00)

France

Germany

UK60－00

60－0060－00

50% reduction

60% reduction

70% reduction

80% reduction

90% reduction

Switchover

B2

Revival

Saving energy

Combine option

(90–00)

(90–00)

(90–00)

Change rates of energy/carbon intensityTechnological Change

Emission pathways that lead to stabilisation

Criteria:Annual reduction smooth : preferably

constant over time (and always < 3%).Smooth transition in rate of reductionIf possible, avoid rapid early reductionStay below conc. level target (650,550) or

allow minimum overshoot (450)Den Elzen, Meinshausen and Van Vuuren.Multigas stabilisation pathways.

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

5

10

15

20

25

GtC

-eq

Baseline

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

ppm

CO

2-eq

Baseline

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Incr

ease

(o C )

Baseline

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21005

10

15

20

25

GtC

-eq

Baseline 650 CO2eq

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

ppm

CO

2-eq

Baseline 650 ppm CO2eq

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Incr

ease

(o C )

Baseline 650 ppm CO2-eq

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

5

10

15

20

25

GtC

-eq

Baseline 650 CO2eq 550 CO2eq

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

ppm

CO

2-eq

Baseline 650 ppm CO2eq 550 ppm CO2eq

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Incr

ease

(o C )

Baseline 650 ppm CO2-eq 550 ppm CO2-eq

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

5

10

15

20

25

GtC

-eq

Baseline 650 CO2eq 550 CO2eq 450 CO2eq

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

ppm

CO

2-eq

Baseline 650 ppm CO2eq 550 ppm CO2eq 450 ppm CO2eq

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Incr

ease

(o C )

Baseline 650 ppm CO2-eq 550 ppm CO2-eq 450 ppm CO2-eq

Emissions Concentration Temperature

Cumulative reduction• 650 GtC (30%)• 850 GtC (45%)• 1200 GtC (60%)

CS = 2.5

Session 1-2 Tom Kram, Detlef van Vuuren