Louisiana Postsecondary Louisiana Postsecondary Education Review Education Review CommissionCommissionPaul E. Lingenfelter, President State Higher Education Executive OfficersAugust 10, 2009

Figure 1: 1973 Labor Force Figure 1: 1973 Labor Force Degree AnalysisDegree Analysis

Graduate Degree7%

Bachelor's Degree9%

Some College12%

High School Graduates

40%

High School Dropouts

32%

Source: March CPS 1973

Labor force in 1973: 91 million

Source: Analysis of March CPS data, 1973 to present, Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018. Center on Education and the Workforce

Center on Education and the WorkforceSource: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) Long-term Economic Outlook, March 2009

163.9

143.6

147.2

96.0

121.0

146.0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Mar 01-Nov 01

recession

Jul 81-Nov82

Jan 80-Jul 80

recession Dec 07-present

recession

Jul 90-Nov 91

Start of Stimulus

Figure 2: With stimulus package, Figure 2: With stimulus package, employment growth set to resume employment growth set to resume in 2011in 2011

Figure 3: 2007 Labor Force Figure 3: 2007 Labor Force Degree AnalysisDegree Analysis

Source: Analysis of March CPS data, 1973 to present, Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018. Center on Education and the Workforce

High School Dropouts

11%

Some College17%

Bachelor's Degree21%

Graduate Degree11%

High School Graduates

30%

Associate's Degree10%

Source: March CPS2007

Labor force in 2007: 154 million

Center on Education and the WorkforceSource: Current Population Survey, Various years

79%

41%

High School or Less

Some College and AA

27%

10%

BA and above

11%

32%

0

15

30

45

60

75

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Figure 4: The evidence suggests that jobs in the Figure 4: The evidence suggests that jobs in the last 4 decades have increasingly required post last 4 decades have increasingly required post secondary educationsecondary education

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, various years Center on Education and the Workforce

Less than 4 years of High School

4.6%

10.1%

4 or more years of High School, no College

2.9%

5.8%

2.9%

Some college, 1-3 years 4.2%

1.3%BA and above

2.1%

4.4%

All

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Nov 73-Mar75Recession

Jan 80-Jul 80Recession

Jul 81-Nov 82Recession

Jul 90-Mar91Recession

Mar 01-Nov 01Recession

Dec '07-presentRecession

Figure 5: Least educated are most vulnerable Figure 5: Least educated are most vulnerable in economic downturns (unemployment rates in economic downturns (unemployment rates by education)by education)

College Participation By Achievement Test and Socioeconomic

Status Quartile

SES Quartile

Lowest Highest

Achievement

Quartile

Highest

78% 97%

Lowest

36% 77%

Source: Access Denied, Department of Education, February 2001.

Figure 6: College Figure 6: College Participation by Participation by Socioeconomic StatusSocioeconomic Status

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1200-1600 1100-1199 1000-1099 800-999 400-799

SAT Score

BA

+ A

tta

inm

en

t R

ate

Top SES

2nd SES

3rd SES

Bottom SES

Source: Anthony Carnevale, Liberal Education, Fall 2008, p. 58.

Figure 7: Degree Attainment by Figure 7: Degree Attainment by SAT Scores and Socioeconomic SAT Scores and Socioeconomic StatusStatus