looking ahead to 2026: trends in technology and education
TRANSCRIPT
Looking Looking Ahead to Ahead to
2026: 2026: Trends in Trends in
Technology Technology and and
EducationEducationTrends in Trends in
Technology Technology and and
EducationEducationEDUCAUSE
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October 2015
ETH Zurich: “new ways to write [to] and read DNA”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/physics/reed-solomon-codes/
@amcafee this morning: "We kept finding examples of science fiction becoming reality."
3
Monthly environmental scan report
Trends identified, tested, projected
Four parts
1. Education contexts
2. Technology
3. Education meets technology
4. Muttering
Education contexts: trendsEducation contexts: trends
Education systems Reform movements (K-12, higher
ed, bipartisan) continue Rising student debt ($1.3 trillion) Alternative certification pilots
(competency, badges)
Global higher educationGlobal higher education
More international students heading to the US
International higher ed systems building up
US campuses expanding overseas presence
Contextual trendsContextual trends
Demographics: Youth population shrinkage,
esp. NE + midwest Ballooning senior
population…
10
Racial transformationRacial transformation
Education contextsEducation contexts
Economics: US labor changes› manufacturing->service› 1 job/career->many gigs› declining participation› Automation rising
Top and bottom vs middleTop and bottom vs middle
Enrollment changesEnrollment changes Spending less Swirling
Student population Student population changeschanges
Majority adult Increasing first-
generation students
Veterans Learning
disabilities
17https://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/6708914025/
Enrollment decline?Enrollment decline?
Spending less per family
Education trendsEducation trends
Adjunctification rising
Bad forecastingBad forecasting
Inter-institutional collaboration (except SUNY)
Senior admin compensation
Intergenerational strife
Athletics are doing just fineAthletics are doing just fine
Technology trendsTechnology trends
Rise of the stacks
Post-Snowden
Hardware + networks: multiple ecosystems
Digitization
Technology trendsTechnology trends
digital video
cloud migration continues
automation and artificial intelligence
AR approach
New device ecosystemNew device ecosystem
Android battles iOS Wearable computing Very small cameras and
computers Internet of Things
Technology ecosystemTechnology ecosystem
Design for mobile *first *
PCs getting crowded out
Mouse and keyboard declining
3d printing mainstreaming
3d tv dying
Technology trendsTechnology trends
social media triumphing
3d printing3d printing
https://www.flickr.com/photos/collegeofsanmateolibrary/15373589050/
Away from physical mediaAway from physical media
Technology trendsTechnology trends
crowdfunding growing copyright battles continue open struggle ongoing durability of Moore’s Law office versus Web office
Did ebooks plateau?Did ebooks plateau?
Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/
Reading and/versus digitalReading and/versus digital
How much reading is being done?
How is digital reading different?
Literacies changing?
Weaker tech trendlinesWeaker tech trendlines
the limits of the Web onshoring hardware
production
3. Teaching and learning and tech3. Teaching and learning and tech
Teaching and learning and techTeaching and learning and tech
blended/flipped classroom
rise of the net.generation distance learning grows gaming in education
Teaching and learning and techTeaching and learning and tech
educational entrepreneurship
big data and data analytics develop
campus digital security threats growing
Uses of social media
Uses of Web video
Changes in the LMS world
Blended learning
Learning analytics
Changes in library role
Digital humanities (in classroom)
The rise of the Maker movement
US decline, Euro interest Credit for MOOCs? STEM vs humanities Sustainability? Morphology: xMOOC vs
cMOOC and now…?
Changes in scholarship Changes in scholarship
Open content Possible divide growing
between research and teaching Changes to the scholarly
publication ecosystem Rise of the digital humanities (as
scholarly work) The library role
Extrapolations: Transnational
campuses Average
student age: 40 Hourly faculty
Privatizing public universities
Hogwarts vs CCs
What comes next?What comes next?
What comes next?What comes next?
Rich multimedia environment
Increasing gamification
Student as producer
Disintegrated computing as a service
Extensive data analysis, surveillance, creativity
Which of these trends are the
most powerful?
Which of these trends are the most
unpredicatble?
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