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© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Geoffrey J. Blanford, Ph.D.Technical Executive

Energy & Environmental Analysis, EPRI

EPRI‐IEA Workshop: Clean Energy for Industries November 29, 2016, Washington, DC

Long‐Term DecarbonizationScenarios

2© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Overview

“Paris and Beyond” scenariosGlobal pathway for non‐electric emissions reductionsDetailed look at decarbonization in USRole of electrification


“Paris and Beyond” scenarios in EPRI’s MERGE analysis

0

20

40

60

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120

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Billion

tonn

es CO

2eq

uivalent

S1: Baseline

S2: NDC only | Base

S3: NDC + | Base

S4: NDC ++ | Base

S5: NDC ++ | Level 1



S8: 2 deg C post‐2030

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2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

Degree

s Celsius abo

ve pre‐in

dustria

l

a. Global Emissions b. Global Mean Temperature

2100

From “The Paris Agreement and Next Steps in Limiting Global Warming”, Rose et al (2016), Climatic Change, under review


Global Emissions in Ambitious Post‐Paris Scenario

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‐10

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100‐20

‐10

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

No Negative Emissions (dashed lines)

Total Emissions*

Energy CO2

Elec CO2

Non‐Elec CO2

Billion

tonn

esCO

2eq

uivalent

* Excludes LU/LUC/F


Global Non‐Electric Emissions: 20‐40% below BAU by 2050

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0.8

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1.2

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1.8

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Inde

x Re

lativ

e to 201

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Baseline

Ambitious Post‐Paris

No Negative Emissions

‐20%

‐40%

Ambitious scenarios have 100%+ reduction in electric sector emissions by 2050 Meanwhile, non‐electric emissions are reduced by 20%, or 40% if negative emissions are not allowed Reductions are achieved through:

– Efficiency improvements (beyond baseline)– Electrification (beyond baseline)– Other low‐ or zero‐carbon end‐use fuel (e.g.

bioenergy, hydrogen)– CCS in some cases

Modeling is challenging due to heterogeneity of applications


Where’s the carbon in the US economy?

Direct Emiss

ions (M

tCO

2)

[Other]Transportation Buildings Industry

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1600

2000


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2000

US Direct CO2 emissions + Fossil Fuel Consumption

Energy Con

sumption (qua

ds)

Direct Emiss

ions (M

tCO

2) Gas

Coal

Petroleum

CO2

Transportation Buildings Industry

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5

10

15

20

25

[Other]


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400

800

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1600

2000

US Direct CO2 emissions + All Fuel Consumption

Energy Con

sumption (qua

ds)

Direct Emiss

ions (M

tCO

2)

Transportation Buildings Industry

CO2

0

5

10

15

20

25

[Other]

Gas

Coal

Petroleum

ElectricityBioenergy


Reducing carbon emissions through electrification

In nearly every case, replacing fossil fuels with electricity at the end‐use results in lower overall carbon emissions– Leverage will only increase with tighter constraints on power sector CO2Key questions:– What are the costs?– How much fossil use can be cost‐effectively replaced by electricity even without a carbon price?

– For the remainder, how does carbon pricing change the equation, i.e. how does electrification compare with other mitigation options?

– In either case, how do we think about adoption and diffusion in the context of consumer behavior?


Light‐Duty Vehicles

Currently EVs and PHEVs have a very small market share but may be on the cusp of much more widespread deployment– Certain consumer groups may find EV/PHEVs more or less attractive based on usage patterns and technology attitudes (from ORNL):Urban / Suburban / Rural Low / Medium / High annual mileage Early Adopter / Early Majority / Late Majority

We model the economic trade‐offs among alternative vehicles in each region / consumer group based on these “behavioral cost” differences and retail fuel prices


‐$1,500

‐$1,000

‐$500

$0

$500

$1,000

PHEV‐10 PHEV‐20 PHEV‐40 EV‐100 EV‐150 EV‐250

Annu

alize

d Co

st Delta vs ICE

V

Purchase Price Behavioral Maintenance Fuel Carbon Net Delta vs ICEV

Electric Vehicle Cost Delta vs Conventional Vehicle‐ EPRI assumptions about vehicle costs for 2030 (no incentives) ‐ ORNL estimates of behavioral costs ‐ current fuel prices + $100/tCO2

Median consumer type


Electric vehicles may not work for all consumer types

‐$1,500

‐$500

$500

$1,500

$2,500

$3,500

$4,500

$5,500

PHEV‐10 PHEV‐20 PHEV‐40 EV‐100 EV‐150 EV‐250

Annu

alize

d Co

st Delta vs ICE

V

Purchase Price Behavioral Maintenance Fuel Carbon Net Delta vs ICEV

Rural, high mileage, late majority, high electricity price consumer type

‐ EPRI assumptions about vehicle costs for 2030 (no incentives) ‐ ORNL estimates of behavioral costs ‐ current fuel prices + $100/tCO2


Electric Heating in Buildings

Currently about 1/4 of residential floorspace in the US has electricity as the main heat source, according to EIA surveys– Concentrated in regions with mild climates / favorable relative fuel prices, e.g. Florida and Pacific NW

– Higher shares in mobile homes and multi‐unit buildings– Lower share in commercial buildingsNew opportunities for air source heat pump (ASHP) technologyWe model the economic trade‐offs for ASHP vs. conventional furnace (+ A/C) in each region / climate zone based on temperature profile and retail fuel prices


Distribution across US of Electric Heating Cost Premium

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Cost Premium fo

r Electric

Heatin

g ($ per yea

r)

Cumulative square footage installing new equipment 2015‐2030 (billions)

Based on today’s fuel prices and new vintage technology

Areas where electric heating has the lowest total costs

Areas where electric heating has a cost

premium relative to gas

FloridaPacific

SE‐CentralMtn‐S

CaliforniaTexas SW‐CentralS‐Atlantic

Mid‐Atlantic

New York

Mtn‐N

NW‐Central

NE‐CentralNew England


Higher carbon prices more electric heating in the money

‐500

‐400

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0 50 100 150 200

Cost Premium fo

r Electric

Heatin

g ($ per yea

r)

Cumulative square footage installing new equipment 2015‐2030 (billions)

$0/tCO2

$100/tCO2

$200/tCO2

$300/tCO2

Based on carbon‐adjusted fuel prices and new vintage technology


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‐20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Electric Loa

d (W

per sq

. ft.)

Temperature (deg F)

Hourly Building Heating/Cooling Load with ASHP vs TempFlorida

CoolingHeating“Balance Point”

Electric resistance back‐up on margin

Annual temperature Range (2010)


Hourly Building Heating/Cooling Load with ASHP vs Temp

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1

1.5

2

2.5

‐20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Electric Loa

d (W

per sq

. ft.)

Temperature (deg F)

NE‐Central (e.g. Chicago)

Cooling

“Balance Point”

Electric resistance back‐up on margin

Heating

Annual temperature Range (2010)Heating Peak is ~6x

Cooling Peak


Non‐Electric Energy CO2 Emissions in US

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fuel TransportDomestic AviationOther Transport

Heavy Trucks

Industry BoilersIndustry Process

Refining

Other Industry

Cars and Light Trucks

Water Heating/cooking

Space Heating

Half of non‐electric emissions are in sectors with clear potential for deep electrification, subject to consumer behavior

Industry and heavy transport: also potential for electrification, but fewer opportunities / more barriers


Key Takeaways

Energy system decarbonization begins with electric sectorNon‐electric decarbonization rates can depend on negative emissions opportunities in electric sector and elsewhereModeling non‐electric emissions is challenging due to heterogeneity and consumer behavior considerationsPricing carbon emissions can have small effects relative to other economic factorsElectrification is a promising decarbonization option, especially in light‐duty vehicles and buildings – integrated analysis is needed


Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

long‐term decarbonization scenarioseea.epri.com/pdf/renewable-clean-energy/blanford-epri... ·...

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