long term challenges in reflecting network costs of... · 2015-12-14 · long term challenges in...
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Long term challenges in reflecting network costs: Pricing and other solutions to manage network challenges.(feat. Network Opportunity Maps)
Chris Dunstan (Research Director, ISF)
AER Tariff Structure Statement Forum
14 December, 2015
1. Challenges
2. Network Opportunity Maps
� Information for the decentralised energy era
3. Conclusions
OVERVIEW
CHALLENGES
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CHALLENGES FOR COST REFLECTIVE NETWORK PRICING
• Locational specificity
• Time responsiveness: by hour, day, month, year
• It’s not just about peak demand
� Low voltage network; voltage management; power factor;
ramp rates; fault current, reliability, asset replacement,
reliability and forecast unserved energy (USE)
• New technology: Solar PV, Electric Vehicles, Batteries, energy
management, hydrogen & fuel cells
CENTRALISED ELECTRICITY SUPPLY:Have we already peaked?
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Rooftop solar PVEnergy efficiency
Annual Energy Forecast for the NEM (NEFR, June 2014)
PEAK DEMAND – Still rising?
Source: 2015 AEMO National Electricity Forecasting Report
(NEFR) (June 2014)
Low load factor = higher prices
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ELECTRICITY NETWORKS: LOCATION, LOCATION, TIME
Networks comprise >50% power bills (nationally)
Network costs are highly location & season specific
Mapping can help identify priority areas for non-network alternatives(Decentralised Energy)0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
ACT Qld NSW VIC* SA
Cen
ts p
er k
ilow
att-
hour
(A
UD
201
0)
GST
Carbon Price
ESS/REES
GGAS /Qld Gas
SRES
LRET
FiT
Metering
Retail
Distribution
Transmission
Generation
Electricity prices by state (2011/12)
Source: AEMC , Future Possible Retail Electricity Price Movements, 2011; Treasury modelling (*Vic = 2012)
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New Technology: This is just the beginning
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Distributed Generation
Cogeneration
Standby Generation
Biomass Generation
Small Gas Generation
Solar Photovoltaics
Energy Efficiency
Efficient motors & chillers
Efficient Lighting
Efficient showerheads
Efficiency Retrofits
Behaviour change
Peak Load Management
Interruptible loads
Power factor correction
Gas Chillers
Ice Storage
Electric to Gas Hot Water
Time of Use tariffs
Fuel Cells
Battery Storage
Electric Vehicles
Decentralised Energyincludes:
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THE CHANGING ELECTRICITY SECTOR
The past
Centralised supply
Forecast demand
Flat prices
Build least cost infrastructure
Little engagement with customers (end users)
The future
→ Decentralised supply
→ Manage demand
→ Cost reflective prices
→ Invest in least cost supply and demand side mix
→ Extensive engagement with customers(and retailers and service providers)
How to deliver a win-win for networks (NSPs) and customers?
Information and collaboration are key
NETWORKOPPORTUNITY MAPS
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Where within the electricity network do the most
cost-effective DE opportunities exist?
How much could DE be worth at these locations?
When are the key years and times of constraint?
To answer these questions, ISF created
Network Opportunity Maps(AKA….the Dynamic Avoidable Network Cost Evaluation or DANCE model)
A resource to show where/when to target Renewable Energy and DE technologies & services:• Annually updated through streamlined process• Consistently applied in every (NEM) jurisdiction • Freely available on online platform• Woven into Networks’ Demand Side Engagement
Strategies
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NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS PROJECT
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NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS PROJECT
• Three year project, Sept 2014 – Sept 2017• Funded by ARENA, UTS, NSW Govt, and Ergon Energy• Formal network business partners: Ergon Energy,
Electranet, TransGrid• Data provision and collaboration with all NSPs in the NEM• Produced on NICTA’s new Australian Renewable Energy
Mapping Infrastructure (AREMI) portal• http://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/
• This is first public release of Sample Maps
PROJECT TIMELINE
Sample Maps
(Oct 2015)
Sample Maps
(Oct 2015)
1st Full Iteration
(May 2016)
1st Full Iteration
(May 2016)
2nd Full Iteration
(May 2017)
2nd Full Iteration
(May 2017)
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WHAT DATA GOES IN?
• All data comes from Network Service Providers
• For Sample Maps: generally as published in 2014 Distribution Annual Planning Reports, and 2015 Transmission Annual Planning Reports)
• Proposed network investments (augmentation, replacement, other)
• Cost of capital (WACC), depreciation
• NSP demand forecasts for each network asset
• Current capacity of lines and substations
• Zone substation region boundaries (+ how different assets connect)
• Hourly load data (load profiles)
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WHAT MAPS COME OUT?
1. Available Capacity (MVA)
2. Planned network investment ($m)
3. Value of potentially avoidable investment (‘annual deferral value; $/kVAyr)
4. Peak Day Available Capacity (% exceedance in each hour)
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WHAT NETWORK LEVELS ARE COVERED?
Network Opportunity Maps
THE MAPS: live onlineSee:http ://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/
http://cfsites1.uts.edu.au/isf/news-events/newsarchive-detail.cfm?ItemId=31169
Network Opportunity Maps - Available Capacity
http://cfsites1.uts.edu.au/isf/news-events/newsarchive-detail.cfm?ItemId=31169
Network Opportunity Maps - Available Capacity
Network Opportunity Maps - Available Capacity
MAP 2: PROPOSED INVESTMENT[$MILLION BY YEAR]
See AREMI platform:
http://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/
MAP 2: PROPOSED INVESTMENT [$m]
Map 2: Proposed Investment [$m]
Map 2: Proposed Investment [$m] ( c.f. NSW)
Note: Each zone has detailed clickable data
÷÷
ANNUAL DEFERRAL VALUE [$/KVA/YEAR]
x ( + )
http://cfsites1.uts.edu.au/isf/news-events/newsarchive-detail.cfm?ItemId=31169
Annual Deferral Value [$/kVA/year] - 2016
Annual Deferral Value [$/kVA/year] - 2017
Annual Deferral Value [$/kVA/year] - 2018
Annual Deferral Value [$/kVA/year] - 2019
Annual Deferral Value [$/kVA/year] - 2020
Annual Deferral Value [$/kVA/year] - 2021
MAP 4: HOURLY AVAILABLE CAPACITY(PEAK DAY- % OF FIRM CAPACITY)
• Compares forecast hourly demand to firm local network capacity
• BUT generally only provided where load is forecast to exceed capacity.
• Shown for peak day only (in relevant peak season). • Shows Transmission, Sub-transm’n & Distrib’n Zone capacity.
• Note that this map has changed from hourly deferral value in previous network opportunity map versions.
Hourly available capacity- Summer Peak Day, 1pm
PEAK DAY (HOURLY) AVAILABLE CAPACITY MAP
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PROJECT TIMELINE
Sample Maps
(Oct 2015)
Sample Maps
(Oct 2015)
1st Full Iteration
(May 2016)
1st Full Iteration
(May 2016)
2nd Full Iteration
(May 2017)
2nd Full Iteration
(May 2017)
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• Targeted User Feedback• Short user feedback survey (see project website)
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EXPECTED PROJECT OUTCOMES
• Develop a more diverse market of non-network service providers
• Enhance service offers and choice for customers
• Develop new business for NSPs in decentralised energy
• Demonstrate effective collaboration to deliver win-win outcomes for NSPs and customers
“Meeting the information of needs the new decentralised energy era”
Victoria is well placed to lead on CRNP and DE• Lower network investment in recent years• Less surplus capacity• Higher load at risk• Tradition of probabilistic network planning• Smart meter rollout means:
• Better understanding of network conditions
• More data on voltage excursions and other code noncompliance• More capacity for smarter control
• Network businesses looking for opportunities• Government desire to lead on new and clean technolo gy
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POLICY TOOLS FOR NETWORK DM
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Committed
1: Decoupling (via Revenue Cap)
2: Capital Savings Incentive (CESS)
3: Contestable Metering
4: Cost reflective network pricing
5: Customer Information
Proposed (DM Incentive Scheme)
6: Least cost objective
7: DM Incentive Payments
Potential
8: Voluntary DM targets
9. Performance Reporting
• Cost reflective pricing is crucial but not sufficient
• Clear accessible information is key to this more decentralised energy market
• The future needs more competition and more collaboration
• The future is in flux - flexibility is crucial
• Customers need better incentives - and so do utilities
Conclusions
QUESTIONS?
View the maps: http://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/[click ‘Electricity Infrastructure’, ‘Network Opportunities – ISF’]
Chris Dunstan, [email protected](02) 9514 4882
Ed Langham, [email protected](02) 9514 4971