long-term analysis of global co 2 emission reduction by efficient technologies
DESCRIPTION
Long-term Analysis of Global CO 2 Emission Reduction by Efficient Technologies. Yutaka NAGATA (CRIEPI) Katsura FUKUDA (MRI, Inc.) Yuko MORI (JKL, Inc.). International Energy Workshop July 6, 2005 Kyoto. Contents. Introduction Model Structure Case settings and presuppositions Results - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Long-term Analysis of Global Long-term Analysis of Global COCO22 Emission Reduction by Emission Reduction by
Efficient TechnologiesEfficient Technologies
Long-term Analysis of Global Long-term Analysis of Global COCO22 Emission Reduction by Emission Reduction by
Efficient TechnologiesEfficient Technologies
Yutaka NAGATA (CRIEPI)Yutaka NAGATA (CRIEPI)Katsura FUKUDA (MRI, Inc.)Katsura FUKUDA (MRI, Inc.)
Yuko MORI (JKL, Inc.)Yuko MORI (JKL, Inc.)
Yutaka NAGATA (CRIEPI)Yutaka NAGATA (CRIEPI)Katsura FUKUDA (MRI, Inc.)Katsura FUKUDA (MRI, Inc.)
Yuko MORI (JKL, Inc.)Yuko MORI (JKL, Inc.)
International Energy WorkshopInternational Energy WorkshopJuly 6, 2005July 6, 2005
KyotoKyoto
International Energy WorkshopInternational Energy WorkshopJuly 6, 2005July 6, 2005
KyotoKyoto
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 2
ContentsContentsContentsContents
IntroductionIntroduction Model StructureModel Structure Case settings and presuppositionsCase settings and presuppositions ResultsResults
COCO22 emission emission Technological change caused by COTechnological change caused by CO22
constraintconstraint Emission trading costEmission trading cost
ConclusionsConclusions
IntroductionIntroduction Model StructureModel Structure Case settings and presuppositionsCase settings and presuppositions ResultsResults
COCO22 emission emission Technological change caused by COTechnological change caused by CO22
constraintconstraint Emission trading costEmission trading cost
ConclusionsConclusions
No time !No time !
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 3
IntroductionIntroductionIntroductionIntroduction
Effectuation of the Kyoto ProtocolEffectuation of the Kyoto Protocol
Reducing COReducing CO22 emission by efficient emission by efficient technologies is the keytechnologies is the key
Combination with the flexible Combination with the flexible mechanisms (emission permit trading, JI, mechanisms (emission permit trading, JI, and CDM) is also importantand CDM) is also important
This study analyzed the effect of efficient This study analyzed the effect of efficient technologies quantitativelytechnologies quantitatively
Effectuation of the Kyoto ProtocolEffectuation of the Kyoto Protocol
Reducing COReducing CO22 emission by efficient emission by efficient technologies is the keytechnologies is the key
Combination with the flexible Combination with the flexible mechanisms (emission permit trading, JI, mechanisms (emission permit trading, JI, and CDM) is also importantand CDM) is also important
This study analyzed the effect of efficient This study analyzed the effect of efficient technologies quantitativelytechnologies quantitatively
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 4
Final energy demandFinal energy demand(26 regions, 9 kinds)(26 regions, 9 kinds)Final energy demandFinal energy demand(26 regions, 9 kinds)(26 regions, 9 kinds)
Model structureModel structureModel structureModel structure
Transportation demandTransportation demandTransportation demandTransportation demand
Production cost curvesProduction cost curvesof resourcesof resources
Production cost curvesProduction cost curvesof resourcesof resources
Technological and costTechnological and costconditions of technologyconditions of technologyTechnological and costTechnological and costconditions of technologyconditions of technology
Primary energy demandPrimary energy demand(26 regions, 10 kinds)(26 regions, 10 kinds)
Primary energy demandPrimary energy demand(26 regions, 10 kinds)(26 regions, 10 kinds)
Energy pricesEnergy prices(26 regions, 10 kinds)(26 regions, 10 kinds)
Energy pricesEnergy prices(26 regions, 10 kinds)(26 regions, 10 kinds)
COCO22 emissions andemissions andtraded permitstraded permits
COCO22 emissions andemissions andtraded permitstraded permitsCost of COCost of CO22 capture and capture and
sequestration (optional)sequestration (optional)Cost of COCost of CO22 capture and capture andsequestration (optional)sequestration (optional)
Exogenous conditionsExogenous conditionsExogenous conditionsExogenous conditions
Constraint for newConstraint for newconstruction and COconstruction and CO22
Constraint for newConstraint for newconstruction and COconstruction and CO22
Installed capacity ofInstalled capacity ofenergy technologiesenergy technologiesand their operationand their operation
Installed capacity ofInstalled capacity ofenergy technologiesenergy technologiesand their operationand their operation
Discounted total energyDiscounted total energysupply cost until 2030supply cost until 2030
Discounted total energyDiscounted total energysupply cost until 2030supply cost until 2030
METEOMETEOMETEOMETEO
Major OutputMajor OutputMajor OutputMajor Output
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 5
Characteristics of the METEO Characteristics of the METEO modelmodelCharacteristics of the METEO Characteristics of the METEO modelmodel Dynamic optimizationDynamic optimization Cost function of resource reservesCost function of resource reserves Price-induced energy conservationPrice-induced energy conservation Detailed treatment for load curve of electricityDetailed treatment for load curve of electricity Treats Asian countries in detailTreats Asian countries in detail 3 ways of technological change3 ways of technological change
(1)(1) mixture of power generationmixture of power generation(2)(2) fuel conversionfuel conversion(3)(3) alternative fuel vehiclesalternative fuel vehicles
Dynamic optimizationDynamic optimization Cost function of resource reservesCost function of resource reserves Price-induced energy conservationPrice-induced energy conservation Detailed treatment for load curve of electricityDetailed treatment for load curve of electricity Treats Asian countries in detailTreats Asian countries in detail 3 ways of technological change3 ways of technological change
(1)(1) mixture of power generationmixture of power generation(2)(2) fuel conversionfuel conversion(3)(3) alternative fuel vehiclesalternative fuel vehicles
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 6
Assumptions of production cost Assumptions of production cost curve for fossil fuelscurve for fossil fuelsAssumptions of production cost Assumptions of production cost curve for fossil fuelscurve for fossil fuels
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Pro
duct
ion
Cos
t (1
=A
vera
ge P
rice)
Production (1=Proved Reserves)
Grade 1Grade 1Grade 2Grade 2
Grade 3Grade 3Grade 4Grade 4
Grade 5Grade 5Grade 6Grade 6
Grade 7Grade 7Grade 8Grade 8
Grade 9Grade 9
Grade 10Grade 10
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 7
Regional divisionRegional divisionRegional divisionRegional division
10 Thailand
4 Japan
1 China 3 Taiwan2 Hong Kong
5 Korea
6 Singapore 15 Australia
16 New Zealand
26 Latin America
25 Mexico
24 USA
23 Canada
22 Africa
21 Middle East
19 Russia17 OECD Europe
18 Non-OECDEurope
20 Former Soviet Republics
7 Malaysia
8 Indonesia
9 Philippines
11 Brunei
12 Vietnam13 India
14 Other Asia
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 8
Fuel conversion flowFuel conversion flowFuel conversion flowFuel conversion flow
BiomassBiomass
NuclearNuclear
HydroHydro
GeothermalGeothermal
SolarSolar
WindWind
Coking CoalCoking Coal
CoalCoal
Natural GasNatural Gas
Crude OilCrude Oil
Iron & SteelIron & Steel
Coal Coal LiquefactionLiquefaction
Coal Coal GasificationGasification
Oil RefineryOil Refinery
LPGLPGGasolineGasolineNaphthaNaphthaGas OilGas OilFuel OilFuel Oil
Gas Gas LiquefactionLiquefaction
Vaporization Vaporization of LNGof LNG Gas Gas
DemandDemand
Coal Coal DemandDemand
LPG LPG DemandDemand
Naphtha Naphtha DemandDemand
Power GenerationPower Generation
Coal PowerCoal PowerOil PowerOil PowerGas PowerGas PowerBiomass PowerBiomass PowerNuclear powerNuclear powerHydro PowerHydro PowerGeothermal PowerGeothermal PowerSolar PowerSolar PowerWind PowerWind Power
Gasoline Gasoline DemandDemand
Diesel Oil Diesel Oil DemandDemand
Electricity Electricity DemandDemand
Fuel Oil Fuel Oil DemandDemand
GTLGTL
DMEDME
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 9
Case settingsCase settingsCase settingsCase settings
COCO22 constraint constraint
EmissionEmissiontrading regiontrading region
NoNo Kyoto foreverKyoto forever
Reduced by Reduced by 4% in every 4% in every
5 years since 5 years since 20102010
NoNo BAUBAU SR(A)SR(A) SR(B)SR(B)
Japan and ChinaJapan and China JC(A)JC(A) JC(B)JC(B)
Annex-I (ratified)Annex-I (ratified) Annex(A)Annex(A) Annex(B)Annex(B)
World-wideWorld-wide World(A)World(A) World(B)World(B)
Countries which have no obligation and not ratified Annex-I are Countries which have no obligation and not ratified Annex-I are assumed to have same amounts of emission credits in the BAU case.assumed to have same amounts of emission credits in the BAU case.
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12in
200
0
BA
U
SR
(A)
JC(A
)
Ann
ex(A
)
Wor
ld(A
)
SR
(B)
JC(B
)
Ann
ex(B
)
Wor
ld(B
)
US
Other World
Other Asia
China
Japan
New Zealand
Russia
Other Europe
OECD Europe
Canada
Regional CORegional CO22 emission emission(in 2030)(in 2030)Regional CORegional CO22 emission emission(in 2030)(in 2030)
Gt-
C
with
CO
2 c
onst
rain
tN
o co
nstr
aint
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 11
Production of crude oilProduction of crude oil(BAU case)(BAU case)Production of crude oilProduction of crude oil(BAU case)(BAU case)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MT
OE
/yea
r
Grade 1Grade 1
Grade 2Grade 2
Grade 3Grade 3
Grade 4Grade 4
Grade 5Grade 5
Grade 6Grade 6
Grade 7Grade 7
year
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 12
with
CO
2 c
onst
rain
t
Differences in CODifferences in CO22 emission emission(in 2030)(in 2030)Differences in CODifferences in CO22 emission emission(in 2030)(in 2030)
-1200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1200JC
-SR
(A)
Ann
ex-S
R(A
)
Wor
ld-S
R(A
)
JC-S
R(B
)
Ann
ex-S
R(B
)
Wor
ld-S
R(B
)
US
Other World
Other Asia
China
Japan
New Zealand
Russia
Other Europe
OECD Europe
Canada
Mt-
C
Purchase credit
Sell credit
No
cons
trai
nt
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 13
Capacity of power plantsCapacity of power plants (World, in 2030) (World, in 2030)Capacity of power plantsCapacity of power plants (World, in 2030) (World, in 2030)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
in 2
000
BA
U
SR
(A)
JC(A
)
Ann
ex(A
)
Wor
ld(A
)
SR
(B)
JC(B
)
Ann
ex(B
)
Wor
ld(B
)
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Advanced gas
Conv. gas
Oil
IGCC, IGFC
USC
PCF
GW
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 14
Electricity generationElectricity generation (Japan, in 2030) (Japan, in 2030)Electricity generationElectricity generation (Japan, in 2030) (Japan, in 2030)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
in 2
000
BA
U
SR
(A)
JC(A
)
Ann
ex(A
)
Wor
ld(A
)
SR
(B)
JC(B
)
Ann
ex(B
)
Wor
ld(B
)
Steel byproduct
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Advanced gas
Conv. gas
Oil
IGCC, IGFC
USC
PCF
GW
h
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 15
Electricity generationElectricity generation (China, in 2030) (China, in 2030)Electricity generationElectricity generation (China, in 2030) (China, in 2030)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
in 2
000
BA
U
SR
(A)
JC(A
)
Ann
ex(A
)
Wor
ld(A
)
SR
(B)
JC(B
)
Ann
ex(B
)
Wor
ld(B
)
Steel byproduct
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Advanced gas
Conv. gas
Oil
IGCC, IGFC
USC
PCF
GW
h
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 16
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000B
AU
SR
(A)
JC(A
)
Ann
ex(A
)
Wor
ld(A
)
SR
(B)
JC(B
)
Ann
ex(B
)
Wor
ld(B
)
DME
GTL
LNG Vaporization
NG Liquefaction
Oil Refinery
Energy consumption by fossil Energy consumption by fossil fuel conversion tech. fuel conversion tech. (in 2030)(in 2030)Energy consumption by fossil Energy consumption by fossil fuel conversion tech. fuel conversion tech. (in 2030)(in 2030)
MT
OE
GTL and DME will not GTL and DME will not be installed at the be installed at the regions where COregions where CO22 constraints will be constraints will be applied since COapplied since CO22 is is emitted during the emitted during the process.process.
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 17
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000B
AU
SR
(A)
JC(A
)
Ann
ex(A
)
Wor
ld(A
)
SR
(B)
JC(B
)
Ann
ex(B
)
Wor
ld(B
)
DME
GTL
Diesel
Hybrid*
Gasoline
Energy consumption by Energy consumption by vehicles vehicles (in 2030)(in 2030)Energy consumption by Energy consumption by vehicles vehicles (in 2030)(in 2030)
MT
OE
* The share of hybrid * The share of hybrid vehicles in number is vehicles in number is twice because the twice because the efficiency of them is efficiency of them is twice of gasoline twice of gasoline vehiclesvehicles
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 18
Cost of emission tradingCost of emission tradingCost of emission tradingCost of emission trading
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
JC(A)Annex(A)World(A)JC(B)Annex(B)World(B)
Cre
dit
Val
ue (
$/to
n-C
O2)
year
Emissiontrading cost
Differences in total cost between each case and the SR cases
Total amount of excess (insufficient) emissions by region=
Current Current price price range of range of EU EU allowanceallowance
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 19
ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion
Global COGlobal CO22 emission will be doubled in 2030 emission will be doubled in 2030 from the 1990 level in the BAU case. from the 1990 level in the BAU case.
Introduction of clean-coal technologies is Introduction of clean-coal technologies is important in Japan and other countries.important in Japan and other countries.
Advanced fuel conversion technologies and Advanced fuel conversion technologies and alternative fuel vehicles will be introduced alternative fuel vehicles will be introduced irrelevant to COirrelevant to CO22 constraints. constraints.
The theoretical cost of emission trading in 2030 The theoretical cost of emission trading in 2030 will be $36-$145 per ton-COwill be $36-$145 per ton-CO22..
Global COGlobal CO22 emission will be doubled in 2030 emission will be doubled in 2030 from the 1990 level in the BAU case. from the 1990 level in the BAU case.
Introduction of clean-coal technologies is Introduction of clean-coal technologies is important in Japan and other countries.important in Japan and other countries.
Advanced fuel conversion technologies and Advanced fuel conversion technologies and alternative fuel vehicles will be introduced alternative fuel vehicles will be introduced irrelevant to COirrelevant to CO22 constraints. constraints.
The theoretical cost of emission trading in 2030 The theoretical cost of emission trading in 2030 will be $36-$145 per ton-COwill be $36-$145 per ton-CO22..
July 6, 2005 International Energy Workshop, Kyoto 20
Scope of the METEO modelScope of the METEO modelScope of the METEO modelScope of the METEO modelRegionRegion Worldwide, multi-regional (26 regions)Worldwide, multi-regional (26 regions)
Time rangeTime range 2000-2030, 7 points (every 5 years)2000-2030, 7 points (every 5 years)
Primary energy typePrimary energy type 10 kinds (2 coal, oil, gas, biomass, nuclear, geothermal, 10 kinds (2 coal, oil, gas, biomass, nuclear, geothermal, hydro, PV, windhydro, PV, wind
Final energy typeFinal energy type 9 kinds (2 coal, gasoline, diesel, naphtha, LPG, other oil, gas, 9 kinds (2 coal, gasoline, diesel, naphtha, LPG, other oil, gas, electricityelectricity
Fuel conversion Fuel conversion technologiestechnologies
oil refinery, GTL, DME, natural gas liquefying, coal liquefying, oil refinery, GTL, DME, natural gas liquefying, coal liquefying, coal gasification, steel making (by-product gases)coal gasification, steel making (by-product gases)
Efficient vehicle tech.Efficient vehicle tech. hybrid car, alternative fuel vehicles (CNG, DME)hybrid car, alternative fuel vehicles (CNG, DME)
Power generation Power generation technologiestechnologies
PCF, USC-PCF,Conventional gas CC, Advanced CC (ACC), PCF, USC-PCF,Conventional gas CC, Advanced CC (ACC), MACC, IGCC, IGFCMACC, IGCC, IGFC
Energy Energy transportationtransportation
considered (depends on mode and length)considered (depends on mode and length)
Energy prices / Energy prices / resource reservesresource reserves
considered (cost function in ten steps of supply curve)considered (cost function in ten steps of supply curve)
Energy conservationEnergy conservation considered (reverse function of energy demand)considered (reverse function of energy demand)