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London Development Agency and North London Strategic Alliance

North London Employment Land Study Final Report

May 2006

Halcrow Group Limitedin association with PACEC and Glenny LLP

Halcrow Group Limited Vineyard House 44 Brook Green London W6 7BY Tel +44 (0)20 7602 7282 Fax +44 (0)20 7603 0095 www.halcrow.com

Halcrow Group Limited has prepared this report in accordance with the instructions of their clients, London Development Agency and North London Strategic Alliance, for their sole and specific use. Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk.

© Halcrow Group Limited 2006

North London Employment Land Study Final Report

Contents Amendment Record This report has been issued and amended as follows:

Issue Revision Description Date Signed A 1 Working Draft for Comments B 2 Draft Final Report C 3 Interim Final Draft D 4 Final Draft E 5 Final Report (Draft) F 6 Final Report (Draft) G 7 Final Report

17/06/05 29/07/05 12/10/05 02/12/05 24/03/06 05/05/06 16/05/06

Steve Scott (Project Manager) Steve Scott (Project Manager) Steve Scott (Project Manager) Steve Scott (Project Manager) Steve Scott (Project Manager) Steve Scott (Project Manager) Steve Scott (Project Manager)

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Contents

Executive Summary 1 5 Employment Land Demand 5.1 Approach

45 45

PART 1: NORTH LONDON ANALYSIS 13 5.2 5.3

Employment Forecasts Assessing Employment Land Demand

45 51

1 Introduction 14 5.4 5.5

Sensitivity Testing Conclusions

54 60

1.1 Background 14 1.2 1.3

Study Objectives Report Structure

15 15 6 North London Key Findings

6.1 Key Outcomes 61 61

2 Methodology 2.1 Data Identification and Collection 2.2 Mapping and Analysis

16 16 16

6.2 6.3 6.4

Employment land supply 61 Structural Change in Employment Land Demand 63 ‘Land Requirement’ for North London 63

2.3 2.4

Demand and Market Assessment Cluster Multi-Criteria Appraisals

16 17 PART 2: BOROUGH LEVEL ANALYSIS 66

3 Sub-Regional Context 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Economic Context 3.3 Policy Context 3.4 Market Overview 3.5 Transport Overview

20 20 20 24 27 31

7 Barnet 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Current Market Context 7.3 Employment Land Supply 7.4 Employment Land Demand 7.5 Cluster Appraisals

67 67 67 69 75 77

4 Existing Employment Land Supply 4.1 Gross and Net Employment Land 4.2 Land for Industrial/Warehousing Uses 4.3 Area and Floorspace Analysis 4.4 Site Quality and Other Issues

36 36 37 40 43

8 Enfield 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Current Market Context 8.3 Employment Land Supply 8.4 Employment Land Demand 8.5 Cluster Appraisals

80 80 80 82 89 91

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9 Haringey 949.1 Introduction 949.2 Current Market Context 949.3 Employment Land Supply 969.4 Employment Land Demand 1029.5 Cluster Appraisals 105

10 Waltham Forest 10810.1 Introduction 10810.2 Current Market Context 10810.3 Employment Land Supply 11010.4 Employment Land Demand 11710.5 Cluster Appraisals 119

References

Appendix A Cluster Assessment Matrix

Appendix B Cluster Appraisals

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Abbreviations ABI LEPS

LSCP

GDP GLA GVA LBB LBE LBH LBWF LDA MCA MPC

NLELS NLSA NLSRDF

PEL PPS PPG PTAL ODPM RTP SEL

Annual Business Inquiry [PACEC] Local Economic Profiling System London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough [Growth Corridor] Gross Domestic Product Greater London Authority Gross Value Added London Borough of Barnet London Borough of Enfield London Borough of Haringey London Borough of Waltham Forest London Development Agency Multi-Criteria Analysis [Bank of England] Monetary Policy Committee North London Employment Land Study North London Strategic Alliance North London Sub-Regional Development Framework Primary Employment Location Planning Policy Statement Planning Policy Guidance Public Transport Accessibility Level Office of the Deputy Prime Minister Roger Tym and Partners Strategic Employment Location

SIC Standard Industrial Classification SPG Supplementary Planning Guidance SRDF Sub-Regional Development Framework TfL Transport for London UDP Unitary Development Plan

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Executive Summary PART 1: NORTH LONDON ANALYSIS

Please note that the information presented within the report (including all assessments, findings and recommendations) are solely based on the views of the Halcrow, PACEC and Glenny LLP team, and has been prepared using site information collected during March and April 2005. As a result this report, and the information presented within it, does not constitute the views of individual Borough Councils, North London Strategic Alliance (NLSA) or London Development Agency (LDA).

Introduction This study has been undertaken to assess the current usage and future need for employment land within the North London Boroughs of Barnet, Enfield, Haringey and Waltham Forest in order to inform the ongoing economic, planning and development activities within these areas. The LDA and NLSA commissioned this work and it has been undertaken by a multi-disciplinary team from Halcrow, PACEC and Glenny LLP1.

The key drivers for this study include:

• Publication of the London Plan

PACEC provided the socio-economic, business and employment analysis and the employment and market demand assessment. Glenny LLP provided subregional, borough and cluster market commentaries. Halcrow provided the overall assessment and all other appraisal and specialist inputs.

• The recent strategic Greater London Authority (GLA) study of Industrial and Warehousing Land

• Ongoing development of the North London Sub-Regional Development Framework (NLSRDF)

The following objectives have been identified and agreed for this work:

• Undertake a data rich collection of information, from a wide range of existing and new sources

• Incorporate all information collected into a MapInfo compatible GIS

• Analyse each cluster / site for redevelopment potential for employment and mixed use

• Undertake a strategic, but localised, review of North London employment and property markets

• Assessment of the market and redevelopment potential of these clusters / sites

Methodology The following four stage methodology has been used for this study:

• Data Identification and Collection – A range of activities were undertaken to identify and collect the required data. These included a desk top review of available information, consultations with key stakeholders, agreement of a data collection framework, visual field surveys of employment land, along with data collation and validation.

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1

• Mapping and Analysis – All the data collected during the field survey was then mapped and Table ES1 North London Land Supply Summary analysed to provide an assessment of the existing Area (ha)employment land supply

742.0• Demand and Market Assessment – An Gross employment land

employment demand and market assessment was Net employment land (excluding roads and public also undertaken to identify the current and future demand for employment land

669.9 open space)

Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 589.1

• Multi- Criteria Appraisal (MCA) – The individual (including unclassified uses)

95.8cluster appraisals use a MCA process which Vacant or derelict land

provides a qualitative assessment of cluster ‘Unknown’ 40.8 viability (relative to other borough and North Source: Halcrow (April 2005) London clusters), taking into account 21 criteria covering (1) strategic, (2) physical arrangement, local access and site quality, (3) strategic Two key conclusions can be drawn from this analysis: transport access and supporting infrastructure, (4) buffer area and sensitive receptor, and (5) policy • Firstly that a significant proportion of designated issues. employment land has in fact been lost to uses

that are not classed as industrial/warehousing North London Key Findings uses. The result is that the ‘actual’ industrial The key findings in regard to employment land supply, /warehousing stock is significantly more structural change in employment land demand, and constrained than overall levels of employment land requirements for North London are employment land designations suggest. presented below. • Secondly a large proportion of North London

employment land (18%) is identified as ‘vacant’, Employment Land Supply ‘derelict’ or ‘unknown’. This is above the level This study has provided a detailed analysis and identified as vacant in the Roger Tym and understanding of the employment land supply in the Partners (RTP) study2, and could be North London sub-region through primary site survey. A considered as natural. This indicates total of 104 key North London employment clusters potential for future land release. were identified and mapped during the survey. A summary of this employment land supply is provided in Table ES1 below.

2 Industrial and Warehousing Land in London, (RTP et al, 2004)


The quality and characteristics of employment land stock is also important in understanding the relationship between supply and demand. The key characteristics are summarised below:

• The most significant land uses by land area are wholesale, warehousing and motor vehicle sales /repair which combined account for 41% of employment land area

• Employment land is highly concentrated on a small number of large employment sites. Indeed, 9 large employment areas account for 45% of net employment land in the sub-region.

• Equally there is a large concentration in Enfield, which accounts for 85% of North London net employment land (of which just over one-third is within the Brimsdown Industrial Area). Barnet and Haringey have no employment areas of over 15ha in size.

• An estimated 4.9 million m2 of employment floorspace has been identified in North London, with the vast majority (55%) located in Enfield. Haringey and Waltham Forest each account for 19% of floorspace stock, while Barnet only accounts for 7% (340,000 m2).

• In terms of the age and condition of employment buildings, the survey indicated that the stock is generally good with vast majority of buildings being identified as ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ (85%) and almost two thirds having an estimated age of less than 30 years

Structural Change in Employment Land Demand With regards to demand, the forecasts for employment land are subject to a high level of sensitivity, reliant as they are on employment forecasting data, employment density and plot ratios.

Under our NLELS Employment Base demand scenario the forecast employment land demand in 2016 ranges between 705ha and 868ha. This represents a fall in demand between 2001-2016 of between 87ha and 104ha. Taking the mid-point, we estimate that in 2016 employment land demand will be 786ha, a fall of 95ha in the period 2001-2016, as shown in Table ES2.

Table ES2 Land Demand Scenarios by Borough Land

requirements in 2016 (ha)

Change 2001

2016 (ha)

Change 2005

2016 (ha)

Barnet 199 -51 -9

Enfield 316 14 26

Haringey 159 -14 -12

Waltham Forest 111 -43 -17

North London 786 -95 -12 Source: PACEC

‘Land Requirements’ for North London The context for the NLELS study has always been the Industrial and Warehousing Land in London, (RTP et al, 2004) which from a strategic perspective established the ‘land requirement’ for London and its component


sub-regions. The analysis within the RTP study assumed that ‘at any point in time, the planned supply and market demand for industrial/warehousing land will be in balance if supply equals the demand for occupied land, plus margins of vacant land and vacant floorspace to allow for smooth operation of the market’.

It also notes that policy needs to focus on change in supply and demand over the relevant planning period with this change referred to as the ‘land requirement’ (or land release if negative). In this respect the desired change in planned supply equals (a) structural change in demand, plus (b) required change in vacant land, plus (c) required change in vacant floorspace, plus (d) intensification.

The NLELS study provides a more detailed assessment of this potential ‘land requirement’ using locally generated supply and demand information.

Table ES2 shows the structural change in employment land demand is forecast to fall 95ha between 2001 and 2016. However, it also shows that from 2005 to 2016 demand only falls by 12ha. This implies that a relatively modest employment land supply adjustment is required for this period, and that most of the adjustment has already occurred.

With regards to vacant land and floorspace, there needs to be a natural level of vacant land to facilitate the effective market operations. The survey of sites identified that around 96ha (13%) of industrial/ warehousing land is vacant, which is higher than the generally considered natural rate (10%). If a 10% vacancy rate was achieved then there is the potential for 36ha of vacant land to be released by 2016.

Intensification has been considered through the sensitivity in terms of employment density and plot ratios but is not translated into considerations on planned supply.

The conclusion is that an employment land release of between 123 and 140ha (2001-2016) is possible without constraining the sub-regional market. However, for the period 2005-2016 the potential for land release required is significantly lower at around 50ha, on the basis that most structural change in the industrial/warehousing sectors has already taken place.

A summary of this land release potential, on a Borough basis, for 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 is presented in Tables ES3 and ES4 respectively.


Table ES3 North London Land Requirements, 2001-2016 North London

(ha) Barnet (ha) Enfield (ha) Haringey (ha) Waltham Forest

(ha)

Change in Structural Demand -87 to -104 -46 to -57 +12 to +16 -13 to -15 -39 to -48

Change in Vacant Land required -36 - -32 -1ha -3

Total Land Requirement 2001-2016 -123 to -140 -46 to -57 -16 to -20 -14 to -16 -42 to -51 Source: PACEC

Table ES4 North London Land Requirements, 2005-2016 North London


(ha)

Change in Structural Demand -12 -8 to -10 +23 to +29 -11 to -13 -15 to -19

Change in Vacant Land -36 - -32 -1 -3

Total Land Requirement 2005-2016 -50 -8 to -10 -3 to -9 -12 to -14 -18 to -22 Source: PACEC


PART 2: BOROUGH LEVEL ANALYSIS

Barnet Key Findings The key current market context, employment land supply and demand, and individual cluster appraisal findings for Barnet are presented below.

Current Market Context Barnet generally has a small and fragmented industrial/ warehousing base with a scattering of sites across the borough. Key clusters of activity include the New Southgate area incorporating Brunswick Park; the Mill Hill area which includes a number of medium sized industrial estates; and Colindale incorporating three adjacent clusters. This stock is in the main well occupied but they are not any significant proposed industrial development in the borough.

The office market in recent years has not been particularly strong, witnessed by the fact there has been no speculative office developments for 10-15 years. Economically, the local market place is not prepared to pay rent which is adequate to finance the build cost of new offices. The anticipated out-sourcing of Central London functions to the borough has not materialised so demand tends to be local in nature.

Employment Land Supply Within Barnet 20 employment clusters were identified and mapped containing a total of 228 individual employment sites. With the Borough around 61ha of employment land was identified, which accounted for around 0.7% of Barnet land. Key employment land supply information is provided in Table ES5 below.

Table ES5 Barnet Land Supply Summary Area (ha)

Gross employment land 61.3

Net employment land (excluding roads and public 55.7 open space)

Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 37.6 (including unclassified uses)

Vacant or derelict land 4.5

‘Unknown’ 4.4 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

The key findings of the Barnet employment land supply assessment were:

• The top three land use categories by site area are wholesale, warehousing, and public administration which combined account for 43% of employment site land area (16ha) and 31% of employment sites (62 sites)

• The vast majority of Barnet employment land is located within 8 intermediate sized employment land clusters (40% of the identified clusters) that range in size from 2 to 15ha

• The majority of sites are small to medium with 52% of sites being found within the range of 1 to 1,000m2. It should be noted however that these sites cover only 10% of the net Barnet employment site area or just over 50,000m2 (5ha).

• Around 340,000m2 of employment floorspace has been identified within Barnet

• While the building stock within Barnet is generally identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ a higher


proportion of buildings have been identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case at the North London level

Employment Land Demand The Barnet employment land demand is forecast to reduce during the periods 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 as outlined in Table ES6 below. This table shows the change in Barnet net employment land demand using both the employment base prepared for this study and the existing GLA employment base (for comparison purposes).

Enfield Key Findings The key Enfield findings regarding the current market context, employment land supply and demand, and individual cluster appraisal are presented below.

Current Market Context Enfield contains the largest concentration of industrial/ warehousing activity in the sub-region and experiences the strongest demand, which comes from both local and national companies. The early 1990s property crash effectively halted all speculative commercial development in this region and the first new industrial buildings developed (without pre-lets or pre-sales) was circa 1997. Subsequent to that there have only been a handful of further “schemes” although a number of opportunities are now beginning to arise following developers purchase of sites or buildings.

It is estimated there is potentially 450,000 sq ft of new small and medium sized warehouse/industrial building is in the planning pipeline or under construction. This will almost entirely be based upon sites which were formerly occupied by single or larger users.

Table ES6 Change in Barnet Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)

Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016




Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities -46 -8 -52 -11

Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities -57 -10 -63 -13

Mid-Range -51 -9 -57 -12 Source: PACEC


Employment Land Supply Within Enfield 807 individual employment sites were identified within 25 employment land clusters. These clusters covered around 404ha of land, which equates to approximately 4.9% of the Borough. A summary of the key existing employment land supply information within Enfield is provided in Table ES7 below.

Table ES7 Enfield Land Supply Summary Area (ha)

clusters (28% of the identified clusters) each of which is 15ha or larger. The Brimsdown Industrial Area is the largest of these and at 115h accounts of almost a third of Enfield employment land area.

• A good spectrum of employment land sites are found within Enfield from very small (less than 250m2) through to the very large (172,000m2

plus). However the top 18% of sites cover just over 2.7million m2 (272ha). This equates to around 76% of the net area covered by all Enfield employment sites.

• Just over 2.7 million m2 of employment floorspace Gross employment land 404.2 was identified within Enfield Net employment land (excluding roads and public 359.1 • While the building stock within Enfield is generally open space) identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ a higher Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 333.2 proportion of buildings have been identified as (including unclassified uses) ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case at the Vacant or derelict land 65.0 North London level ‘Unknown’ 14.2

Source: Halcrow (April 2005) Employment Land Demand

The key findings of the Enfield employment land supply assessment were:

The employment land demand for Enfield is forecast to increase (using the NLELS employment base) during the periods 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 as outlined in Table ES8 below. This table shows the change in net

• The top three land use categories by site area are Enfield employment land demand using both the study food and tobacco, wholesale, and warehousing prepared employment and existing GLA employment which combined account for 41% of employment base (for comparison purposes). site land area (136ha) and 39% of employment sites (276 sites)

• Just over two thirds of the Enfield employment land is located within 7 very large employment


Table ES8 Change in Enfield Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)





Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 12 23 -43 -22

Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 16 29 -52 -26

Mid-range 14 26 -47 -24 Source: PACEC

Haringey Key Findings The key current market context, employment land supply and demand, and individual cluster appraisal findings for Haringey are presented below.

Current Market Context The London Borough of Haringey (LBH) potentially has the oldest industrial/warehousing stock in the subregion. It is clear from recent market activity that there exists a reasonable demand for small and medium sized industrial units in the borough although such demand will undoubtedly begin to wane as the available stock becomes more and more obsolete. Whilst some speculative construction has commenced in neighbouring boroughs over the last few years there are very few opportunities in Haringey for redevelopment on reasonably sized sites. The lack of single large occupiers and the highly fragmented ownership on many sites has restricted market opportunities for redevelopment.

LBH has never been perceived as a key office location, in part due to the lack of available development land but in the main due to its proximity to the centre of London. Therefore office demand in borough comes almost entirely from companies historically situated in the area, or businesses whose clear aim is to provide a service within the borough or its close proximity. Also, in line with all boroughs of this density, there is a relatively large quantity of space occupied by local authority and ancillary users.

Employment Land SupplyWithin Haringey 25 employment clusters were identified and mapped containing a total of 715 individual employment sites. With the Borough around 133ha of employment land was identified, which accounted for around 4.5% of Haringey land. Key employment land supply information is provided in Table ES9 below.


Table ES9 Haringey Land Supply Summary clusters (ranging from 2 to 15ha) which account Area (ha) for 89% of the Haringey employment land (108ha)

• A good spectrum of employment land sites are Gross employment land 133.2 found within Haringey from very small (less than Net employment land (excluding roads and public 120.6 250m2) through to the very large (55,000m2 plus)open space) • Just over 0.9 million m2 of employment floorspace Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 103.5 was identified within Haringey(including unclassified uses) • Building stock within Haringey is largely identified Vacant or derelict land 11.4 as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’. In addition a ‘Unknown’ 9.2 smaller proportion of buildings within the Borough

Source: Halcrow (April 2005) are identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case for North London.

The key findings of the Haringey employment land Employment Land Demand supply assessment were: The Haringey employment land demand is forecast to

reduce during the periods 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 • The top three land use categories by site area are

wholesale, warehousing, and transport and combined (SIC 51, 62 and 63) account for 42% of employment land area (43ha) and 36% of employment sites (208 sites)

as outlined in Table ES10 below. This table shows the change in Haringey net employment land demand using both the employment base prepared for this study and the existing GLA employment base (for comparison purposes).

• The vast majority of Haringey employment land is located within a group of 15 intermediate sized

Table ES10 Change in Haringey Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)







Mid-range -14 -12 -31 -24 Source: PACEC


Waltham Forest Key Findings The key Waltham Forest findings regarding the current market context, employment land supply and demand, and individual cluster appraisal are presented below.

Current Market Context The industrial/warehousing product in Waltham Forest is in the main fragmented, with no major new industrial development in the borough for perhaps ten years, save for two smaller schemes in the Argall Avenue area (with the obvious exception of those occupiers who have constructed their own bespoke buildings). The borough ostensibly caters well for the small business operator since there are potentially a variety of suitable units available in the sub 5,000 sq ft sector ranging from “break up” units to more modern 1980s stock.

At the larger end of the industrial scale, there are limited units in excess of 20,000 sq ft which meet modern requirement, but this reflects the fact that the internal road infrastructure is not particularly suited to major distribution.

A surprisingly large amount of 1950s/1960s industrial stock remains, an era which saw large tranches of development on individual plots by growing post war businesses. Such units, whilst potentially approaching the end of their useful constructional life, generally have high densities and are still popular as they are relatively affordable on a freehold basis. The estates constructed in the late 1970s/early 1980s are generally still useable in the modern business environment. With good management and maintenance they should have a long lifespan and thus imminent redevelopment is unlikely.

Whilst historically the borough was home to some major employers in the past, it has never been a major location for office centres. There has certainly been no speculative office development in the borough on any large scale for probably 15 years and, with demand generally only coming from local occupiers, this situation is predicted to continue.

Employment Land Supply Within Waltham Forest 652 individual employment sites were identified within 34 employment land clusters. These clusters covered around 143ha of land, which equates to approximately 3.7% of the Borough. A summary of the key Borough existing employment land supply information is provided in Table ES11 below.

Table ES11 Waltham Forest Land Supply Summary Area (ha)

Gross employment land

Net employment land (excluding roads and public open space)

Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use (including unclassified uses)

Vacant or derelict land

‘Unknown’ Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

The key findings of the Waltham Forest employment land supply assessment were:


143.3

134.6

115.1

14.9

13.0

• The top three land use categories by site area are refuse and recycling, motor vehicle sale and repair, and wholesale, which combined account for 46% of employment land area (54ha) and 51% of employment sites (274 sites)

• The majority of the Waltham Forest clusters are however of intermediate size (ranging from 2 to 15ha) and these account for 56% of the Waltham Forest employment land (75ha)

• A good spectrum of employment land site are found within the Borough from very small (less than 250m2) to the very large (49,000m2 plus)

• Just over 0.9 million m2 of employment floorspace was identified within Waltham Forest

• The building stock within Waltham Forest is largely identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’.

In addition a smaller proportion of buildings within the Borough are identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ that was the case for North London.

Employment Land Demand The employment land demand for Waltham Forest is forecast to reduce during the periods 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 is outlined in Table ES12 below. This table shows the change in net Waltham Forest employment land demand using both the study prepared employment and existing GLA employment base (for comparison purposes).

Table ES12 Change in Waltham Forest Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)







Mid-range -43 -17 -63 -30

Source: PACEC


PART 1: NORTH LONDON ANALYSIS


1 Introduction Please note that the information presented within the report (including all assessments, findings and recommendations) are solely based on the views of the Halcrow, PACEC and Glenny LLP team, and has been prepared using site information collected during March and April 2005. As a result this report, and the information presented within it, does not constitute the views of individual Borough Councils, North London Strategic Alliance (NLSA) or London Development Agency (LDA).

1.1 Background

This study has been undertaken to assess the current usage and future need for employment land within the North London Boroughs of Barnet, Enfield, Haringey and Waltham Forest in order to inform the ongoing economic, planning and development activities within these areas. The LDA and NLSA commissioned this work and it has been undertaken by a multi-disciplinary team from Halcrow, PACEC and Glenny LLP3.

The key drivers for this study include:

3 PACEC provided the socio-economic, business and employment analysis and the employment and market demand assessment. Glenny LLP provided subregional, borough and cluster market commentaries. Halcrow provided the overall assessment and all other appraisal and specialist inputs.

• Publication in 2004 of the London Plan which sets out the priority for the improvement of the variety and quality of, and access to, employment sites within London to meet identifiable demand for employment land

• The recent strategic Greater London Authority (GLA) study of Industrial and Warehousing Land which identified the potential for the release of around 100ha of employment land within North London. The key elements of this study are to be incorporated into a Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG) document on the subject.

• Ongoing development of the North London Sub-Regional Development Framework (NLSRDF) which will advance the London Plan spatial development policy implementation within North London. This will include the identification of a number of Opportunity Areas and Areas for Intensification.

This report is one of a number of deliverables that have been produced for this study with the others including:

• A1 Employment Land Maps that provide an overview of the existing employment land within each of the four North London boroughs; and

• An Employment Land GIS / Database that provides a range of detailed information on each site surveyed during the study


1.2 Study Objectives

The following objectives have been identified and agreed for this work:

• Undertake a data rich collection of information, from a wide range of existing and new sources, that provide and understanding of the uses and development potential of North London employment land

• Incorporate all information collected into a MapInfo compatible GIS which is designed and structured to provide data consistency and integrity, assessment and analysis ability, and easy information presentation

• Analyse each cluster / site for redevelopment potential for employment and mixed use taking into account the local, regional and national planning and economic development context

• Undertake a strategic, but localised, review of the employment and property markets within North London to assess the current employment land and housing supply and demand

1.3 Report Structure

To address these objectives this report has been structured as follows:

The remainder of Part 1 of this report presents the subregional analysis of employment land in North London. It includes the following sections:

• Section 2 provides an overview of the methodology used for the study

• Section 3 outlines the North London strategic context within which any decisions about employment land will need to be undertaken

• Section 4 considers the existing quantity and quality of employment land across North London

• Section 5 considers current and forecast demand for employment land in North London

• Section 6 outlines the key study findings for North London

Part 2 of the report provides detailed borough level analysis of employment land supply and demand. It includes the following sections:

• Section 7 provides a focused summary of the relevant employment land issues for Barnet

• Section 8 outlines the key Enfield employment land issues identified

• Section 9 presents a targeted summary of the important Haringey employment land issues

• Section 10 looks at the key Waltham Forest employment land issues identified


2 Methodology The following four stage methodology has been used • The survey results are based on visual inspections for this study. of the sites, hence sites with incorrect or out of

date business details displayed on site boards and 2.1 Data Identification and Collection walls will be recorded incorrectly

A range of activities were undertaken to identify and collect the appropriate data for the study. These included:

• Likewise sites that are totally enclosed or not operating on the day of the survey will be identified as unknown even though business activities may be undertaken

• A desk top review of a wide ranging review of reports and background information in order to obtain an insight into the key local conditions and issues

The results of the field survey have however been comprehensively checked of inconsistencies and fit within general expectations and are a representative indication of the overall business area land uses and

• Consultations with local council officers to characteristics.identify the existing clusters of employment land within each borough and to understand the 2.2 Mapping and Analysis priorities and agendas of each borough

• A data collection framework agreed with the Client in order to provide a standardised information collection template

The data collected during the visual field survey was then analysed to provide an assessment of the existing employment land supply. The key issues that were

• A visual field survey of all identified employment assessed included the total supply of employment land, land the key existing land uses and the proportion of sites

• The collation and validation of data to ensure that were either vacant or derelict, the spatial consistency and accuracy distribution of the employment land, the distribution of

unit sizes, along with the floorspace distribution. The visual field survey data collection results should be treated with care as there a number of potential 2.3 Demand and Market Assessment errors that can affect the accuracy of the study results. These include: An employment demand and market assessment was

also undertaken to identify the current and future demand for employment land within North London. This


assessment also took into account the broader economic and development context of the rest of London and the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough growth corridor, which incorporates the eastern side of the North London area.

This assessment was undertaken in three stages. The first stage was a market and developer assessment to provide an understanding of the practical likelihood of development taking place to meet actual or perceived demand.

A socio-economic analysis and employment land needs forecast was then undertaken to forecast the net growth of jobs within the Borough and thus future employment land needs.

The final stage of the assessment was the consideration of the wider employment and development linkages and the development of demand scenarios based on policy and market interventions.

2.4 Cluster Multi-Criteria Appraisals

A Multi-Criteria Appraisal (MCA) was undertaken of all identified North London employment land clusters in order to rank each cluster (against other borough and North London clusters). The MCA presented within this study has been developed by Halcrow to provide a reasoned assessment framework. In total 21 assessment criteria were identified. For ease of understanding and assessment these criteria have been grouped according to the following categories:

• Group 1 – Strategic Issues • Group 2 – Physical Arrangements, Local

Access and Site Quality • Group 3 – Strategic Transport Access and

Supporting Infrastructure • Group 4 – Buffer Areas and Sensitive

Receptors • Group 5 – Policy Considerations

The following criteria are listed under Group 1 – Strategic Issues:

• Proportion of vacant / derelict sites – What proportion of the cluster is currently derelict? Clusters with more than 50% of the sites being derelict or vacant are likely to have been land banked while a developer is waiting for a change of land use or the site may just not be appropriate for employment uses any more due to significant operational constraints.

• Strategic mix and distribution of sites – Is the borough looking for a strategic mix and / or distribution of employment land sites? Does this site have a strategic fit due to the provision of cheap / start-up premises?

• Strategic reallocation of the site usage – Are key Government agencies and authorities already proposing the redevelopment of the site or its release for non-employment based uses?

The following criteria are listed under Group 2 – Physical Arrangements, Local Access and Site Quality:


• Overall cluster area and floorspace – Is the cluster of a viable size?

• Age and quality of buildings – What is the general age and quality of the buildings? Are they well maintained? Is there a mix of ages or were all the buildings developed at around the same time?

• Quality of public realm – What is the general quality of the public realm? Is it well maintained or significantly run down? Are they any significant environmental issues, such as flooding of flytipping?

• Provision of drainage, lighting and security – Have there been recent investments in the improvement in the drainage, lighting and security within the Cluster?

• Quality of parking and internal circulation – Do the sites within the cluster provide on site parking?

• Operation of potentially contaminative uses – Are sites potentially contaminated by previous uses or located close to sensitive receptors?

The following criteria are listed under Group 3 – Strategic Transport Access and Supporting Infrastructure:

• Connections to highway network – Does the cluster have good connections to the strategic road network? Do vehicles need to pass down residential streets to access the cluster?

• General public transport accessibility – What is the general public transport accessibility of the site according to the TfL PTAL model?

• Distance to local railway station – How far is the entrance of the cluster to the nearest local railway station?

• Distance to local shops and services – How far is the entrance of the cluster to the nearest local shopping strip?

The following criteria are listed under Group 4 – Buffer Areas and Sensitive Receptors:

• Distance to residential receptors – How far is the cluster to the nearest residential receptors? Are there any buffers to these receptors?

• Distance to natural receptors – How far is the cluster to the nearest nature reserve or park? Are there any buffers to these receptors?

• Distance to surface water receptors – How far is the cluster to the nearest creek or river? Are there any buffers to these receptors?

• Interaction / conflicts between cluster and surrounding uses – How likely and significant is the interaction of the cluster and its surrounding uses? Does the cluster buffer these sensitive uses from other more significant pollution sources?

The following criteria are listed under Group 5 – Policy Considerations:

• Linkages with existing regeneration policies, programmes and projects – Are there any local regeneration activities that have a strategic fit with the potential cluster redevelopment?

• Current local employment issues and deprivation levels – Is there significant


employment deprivation within the area? Are there other employment opportunities if the cluster was to be redeveloped for non employment uses?

• Potential to assist in the achievement of economic development targets – Does the cluster have the potential to significantly assist the realisation of key economic development targets?

Criteria Assessment Levels and Weighting MCA requires each criteria to be scored as to the extent to which the cluster achieves the criteria

Table 2.1 Weighted Assessment Against Criteria Groups

described. For this appraisal a five point scale is used with 1 – Strongly Negative to 5 – Strongly Positive.

The scores are then weighted according to the importance of each criteria grouping. The weightings have been assessed as shown in Table 2.1 and have been chosen to provide a maximum weighted score of 500 for any cluster.

Criteria

Group 1 – Strategic Issues

Group 2 – Physical Arrangements, Local Access and Site Quality

Group 3 – Strategic Transport Access and Supporting Infrastructure

Group 4 – Buffer Areas and Sensitive Receptors

Group 4 – Policy Considerations

Total Source: Halcrow

Weighting

35

25

15

15

10

100


3 Sub-Regional Context 3.1 Introduction

This section reviews the economic context by drawing on published economic data and relevant studies, including previous regional and district level employment surveys. The Sub-region of North London and its Boroughs (Barnet, Enfield, Haringey and Waltham Forest) are reviewed in context of Greater London (all boroughs) and national averages.

3.2 Economic Context

GVA, Prosperity and Productivity, Earnings Great Britain experienced a 67.3% growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) over the ten-year period of 1991 to 2001 with a total GVA of £842 billion in 2001. Greater London marginally exceeded the national growth rate with an increase of GVA by 69.6% over the same period. Of the North London borough’s, only Barnet exceeded the national and London-wide GVA growth with 73.4%, with Haringey, Enfield and Waltham Forest underperforming relative to the national trend with growth rates of 58.6%, 30.9% and 3.9% respectively.

Greater London performs stronger than national average for prosperity and productivity with values per person at £20,700 and £33,500, respectively. As functions of GVA, prosperity and productivity rates are lowest for Waltham Forest and Enfield, and higher for Barnet and Haringey though still at rates significantly lower than Greater London. Low prosperity and

productivity rates will have far-reaching socio-economic impacts in term of local wealth of residents, composition of local business stock, attraction of the area for business start-up or relocation, etc.

At £591 Greater London’s average weekly earnings by workplace job, is considerably higher than the national average of £420. However, all four North London boroughs have earnings well below the Greater London value, which may imply potential for wage increases with changing industrial structure. Enfield and Barnet workplace jobs derive the highest average wages at £484 and £472, with Haringey and Waltham Forest wages averaging £429 and £389, respectively.

There is also a clear earnings differential in workplacebased and residence-based average weekly earnings, with the latter generally higher by £70 to £100 – indicating the larger salaries outside North London. Barnet is the only borough with an average weekly residence-based wage higher than the Greater London average.

Population The combined population of these four North London boroughs total 1.05 million with a growth rate of 7.2% – lower than the Greater London rate 8.2%, but twice that of the national average. All four boroughs have experience population growth with Barnet the highest at 9% and Waltham Forest lowest at 2.6%. Barnet is the largest borough by population of 324,000, followed by


Enfield at 280,000 and Haringey and Waltham Forest of similar size at 225,000 and 222,000 respectively.

Labour Market Balance ‘Workplace jobs’ records employment in companies and the self-employed, and is a good indication of economic strength. North London had a total of 367,000 jobs in 2001, having grown by 25,300 between 1991 and 2001. This growth rate of 7.4% is well below the Greater London average of 18.3% and the national average of 16.0%. By borough, Barnet had the strongest growth with 13.2%; followed by Enfield, 9.6%; and Haringey, 3.8%; and Waltham Forest which actually saw a 2.4% fall in employment.

Rates of self-employed are indicative of entrepreneurship. Across the four boroughs there are nearly 50, 000 self-employed which is on par with Greater London and the national rate of 13% of total employment. Barnet has a higher proportion and actual number of self-employed (approx. 20,000, or 15% of economically-active) and Waltham Forest the lowest (approx. 6,000, or 10% self-employed).

North London boroughs record a large net outcommuting of 140,000 people per day. The largest actual movement is from Barnet (39,000) and the largest proportion from Waltham Forest (38%).

Unemployment and Incapacity Benefit In parallel with national trends, unemployment growth in all North London boroughs has fallen between 1991 and 2004. Barnet displays the lowest rate of unemployment at 5.8%, followed by Enfield (6.3%), and

then Waltham Forest and Haringey at similar rates of 7.8% and 7.9%.

Incapacity benefit rates benchmarked against GB have risen for all North London boroughs over the course of the 1990’s and early 2000, though at 5.5%, actual rates remain lower than GB (6.7%) and same as Greater London.

Enterprise Development ABI data for 2003 identifies a total stock of 32,100 businesses in North London, the largest proportion of these businesses in Barnet (14,100), which has the largest actual economically active population (29.9% of North London total). Over the decade 1991-2001, Barnet has had a net growth of 2,760 businesses, Haringey by 565, Enfield by 90, but Waltham Forest has had a net lost of 370.

Recent trends show how registrations rates have converged since 2000, having been higher than London-wide and national averages. In 2003, all boroughs showed business VAT registration rates of over 10% in relation to their total business stock, ranging between Waltham Forest at 14.2% and Barnet at 11.5%. De-registrations, however, were high in 2003 so that both Enfield and Barnet recorded net losses in stock, the rates and net gain/loss being: Barnet, 16.8%, lost 740 businesses; Haringey, 12.7%, gained 15 businesses; Waltham Forest, 12.6%, gained 75 businesses; and Enfield, 11.6%, lost 130 businesses.


Industrial Structure Collectively there is 6.6m2 of rateable land in North London, with an estimated total rateable value of £459 million, an average rateable value of £70 per m2, Within North London there is considerable difference in rateable value: Barnet is the most expensive across all land use categories, particularly with Retail, and Waltham Forest and Enfield the cheaper. In North London, land use is dominated by Retail (227,000m2) followed by Office (88,100m2), Warehouse (85,900m2)

4and Factories (56,900m2) .

Sector concentrations for North London reveal a broader spread of industries than Greater London, which has a very strong focus on finance and business. By borough, Barnet shows concentrations in retail, and finance and business; Haringey in Wholesale and Transport; Waltham Forest in Wholesale and Public Service; and, Enfield in Construction, Wholesale and Transport.

Workplace jobs by sector across all boroughs total 363,882. Public Service sector is the largest by employee with 96,669 employees, followed by Finance and Business 70,473, and Retail 56,293. Wholesale which shows high concentrations across all boroughs of North London, has a considerably smaller total employment of 19,672.

In more detail, North London has performed particularly well in manufacturing (food and drink, clothing,

4 Source: ODPM

pharmaceuticals); rail and water transport; hotels; wholesale; cinema and TV; retail (drink, household); advertising; computing and public admin and defence.

Occupational Structure North London boroughs have higher rates of professional occupations than national average: Manger / Senior (16.9% compared with 15.1%), Professional occupations (15.6% compared with 11.2%), Associate professional and technical (17.2% compared with 13.8%), and Administrative (15.6% compared with 13.3%). Across all four boroughs Elementary, Skilled trades, and Process occupations are under-represented compared to the national average.

Social Well Being Figure 3.1 shows the distribution of deprived wards as per the Index of Multiple Deprivation, across the four boroughs under review. The red shade shows those Super Output Areas classified as the most deprived 20% in the nation. There is a clear clustering around East Haringey and extending into the South East of Enfield and scattering through Waltham Forest, with stronger concentrations in the south. Barnet, West Haringey and Central/West Enfield are clearly the least deprived of North London area.


Source: ODPM, PACEC Figure 3.1 Distribution of Deprived Areas in North London by Super Output Areas


3.3 Policy Context

A range of current and anticipated planning policies will be relevant to the retention and the change of land use of existing employment land within North London. The key policies at the national and regional levels within the UK planning system hierarchical structure are outlined below.

3.3.1 National Policy

PPS1 – Delivering Sustainable Development, 2005 PPS1 sets out planning policies on the delivery of sustainable development through the planning system that need to be taken into account by regional planning bodies, the Mayor of London and local planning authorities. With regards to economic development, national planning policies within PPS1 include that planning authorities should:

• Recognise that economic development can deliver environmental and social benefits

• Recognise the wider benefits of economic development, from the sub-regional level up

• Ensure suitable locations for employment uses are available so that the economy can prosper

• Recognise the dynamic nature of local economies and be sensitive to changes and the implications for development and growth

• Ensure the provision of sufficient, good quality, new homes in suitable locations

• Ensure that infrastructure and services are provided to support economic development and housing.

• In terms of general approach two key principles are pertinent. Firstly that planning authorities should bring forward sufficient land of a suitable quality to meet expected needs for housing and industrial development. Secondly, that authorities should promote a more efficient use of land through higher density mixed-use development and the use of suitable previously developed land and buildings.

PPG3 – Housing, 2000 (Updated 2005) PPG3 presents National Planning Policy with regards to housing and sets out the intention for everybody to have the opportunity of a decent home and the requirement to meet the housing needs of the whole community. This requires provision of sufficient housing land while giving priority to re-using previously developed land and existing development. Policy is committed to the provision of more sustainable housing development by:

• Concentrating additional housing development within urban areas

• Making more efficient use of previously developed land and existing buildings

• Assessing the capacity of urban areas to accommodate more housing

• Adopting a sequential approach to housing land allocation and adopting a plan, manage, review approach.


In terms of the impact on employment sites, an important update to PPG3 published in 2005 makes a provision that applications for housing or mixed use developments on land allocated for employment purposes should be considered favourably unless proposals fail to reflect PPG3 policies on suitable development and previously developed sites or would undermine housing strategy at the local or regional level; or unless the realistic take-up of the site for employment purposes can be demonstrated or its reuse would undermine local economic development and regeneration.

PPG4 – Industrial, Commercial Development and Small Firms, 2001 This employment related guidance sets out the requirement to give industrial and commercial developers greater certainty about the types of development that will be permitted in a given location. This is further emphasised through PPG12 which states that structure plans and UDPs should include policies relating to major industrial and employment generating development, providing clear land-use policies for different types of industrial and commercial development. Any approach to employment land needs to take account of the interaction between employment and other land-uses and be used to encourage development towards the most appropriate and sustainable locations. PPG4 identifies that within the local policy framework employment development should be supported and that due consideration should be given to mixed use developments.

PPG13 – Transport, 2002 Within PPG13, it is worth noting transport planning policy as it relates to employment sites and premises. The key objective is to ensure that employment opportunities are accessible by public transport, walking and cycling. Therefore planning policies should aim to:

• Provide a strategic balance between housing and employment to minimise the need for long distance commuting

• Focus large employment areas in city, town and district centres, and near to major public transport interchanges

• Encourage a mix of land-uses

3.3.2 Regional Policy

The London Plan, 2004 The Mayor of London’s London Plan was adopted in February 2004 and provides the framework within which all borough UDPs need to conform. The Plan presents six objectives for London:

1. To accommodate London’s growth within its boundaries without encroaching on open spaces

2. To make London a better city for people to live in 3. To make London a more prosperous city with a

strong and diverse economic growth 4. To promote social inclusion and tackling

deprivation and discrimination 5. To improve London’s accessibility 6. To make London a more attractive, well-designed

and green city


The overall development strategy within the Plan provides a number of designations to direct development and ensures that development is sustainable. Of relevance to this study are the following designations: Opportunity Areas (three within North London sub-region) identified on the basis that they can accommodate substantial new jobs or homes; Areas for Intensification (three within North London sub-region) which have significant potential for increases in residential, employment and other uses through (re)development and regeneration; Areas for Regeneration where deprivation and social exclusion are significant; Strategic Employment Locations (ten within the North London sub-region) which contain important concentrations of industrial and warehousing activity.

Strategic Employment Locations (SELs) are central to policy on industrial employment in the capital. While the SELs will be promoted and managed to provide a varied industrial offer, local policies outside of the SELs need to have regard to the quality and fitness for purpose of sites, and the potential release of surplus land for other uses in order to achieve the efficient use of land.

The Plan proposed that the North London sub-region should accommodate 47,000 additional dwellings and 26,000 new jobs by 2016, and sets out the following relevant priorities for the area:

• To deliver the London element of the government’s priority for the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough growth corridor

• To identify capacity to accommodate new job and housing opportunities and appropriate mixed-use development

• To improve the variety, quality and access to available employment sites, particularly within SELs.

Draft Industrial Capacity SPG, 2003 The objectives of this draft SPG are to provide detailed guidance on how the broad policies in the London Plan should manage industrial development capacity, ensuring that sufficient land is available to meet future industrial needs and bring surplus industrial land back into use to meet the wider objectives of the Plan. Specific guidance of relevance to this study include:

• The requirement through SPG1 to adopt a positive plan-monitor-manage approach to industrial land using Sub-Regional Development Frameworks, to justify and monitor changes to SELs, and to manage a competitive stock of industrial premises while consolidating industry into appropriate locations.

• Promote Strategic Employment Locations as the prime locations for industrial activity in London and resist the development of non-business uses on these areas (SPG2), while also protecting locally important industrial sites outside the SEL framework after testing them against demand (SPG3).

• With regards to other industrial sites planning authorities should develop criteria based policies to manage release or retention of these areas and ensure that any release meets wider policy needs


(the first priority towards housing). North London Boroughs are classed as a ‘Limited Transfer’ area where local policies should reflect local difference in supply and demand, rather than adopting a restrictive or permissive approach to release (SPG4).

• A positive approach to consideration of employment led mixed use development on strategically recognised industrial sites or parts of sites, as long is it does not incur a significant net loss of industrial employment capacity (SPG5), and a promotion of distribution facilities in suitable areas – PELs and SELs with good transport accessibility (SPG8).

Industrial and Warehousing Land Demand in London, 2004 This research supports the imminent Supplementary Planning Guidance on Industrial and Warehousing Land in London and confirms the estimate that some 50 hectares of industrial/warehousing land can be released annually to 2016. The preferred scenario in the study redistributed demand from sub-regions where supply is tight to the East sub-region where there is a large supply of land.

The study recommends that strategic guidelines for land release should operate at the sub-regional level, leaving sub-regional frameworks the task of allocating release between boroughs. It is estimated that employment land release in the North London subregion is between 90-100 hectares over the period 2001-2016. This release should relate to a decline in

industrial demand and a fall in the level of existing vacant land to bring it in line with a ‘natural rate’.

3.4 Market Overview

The market overview for the North London sub-region is drawn from existing reviews and documentation, and the market review undertaken for this study by Glennys LLP.

The wider context for the sub-region is one of general manufacturing decline throughout the UK and London over recent years, a trend that is forecast to continue. Indeed current industrial trends throughout London suggest:

• A declining level of available space • A return to speculative development • Robust levels of tenant demand, driven by

warehousing and storage rather than manufacturing

• Rising rental values • Hardening lease terms and a reduction of

incentives

At the Greater London level the following characteristics help define the industrial and warehousing market5.

5 Source: GLA ‘Industrial and Warehousing Demand in London’, August 2004.


• The capital has some 27.6 million m2 of built industrial and warehousing floorspace, with 58% of this total consisting of warehousing space (a higher proportion than in neighbouring regions).

• The stock is generally ageing in nature compared to neighbouring regions and England as a whole. In 2000, only 20.4% of factory stock had been built since 1971, compared to 41% in the South East. Similarly only 44% of warehousing space had been built since 1971 compared to 62.6% in the South East.

• The stock generally consists of smaller units, with 28.6% of factory space in units below 500 sqm. However the size profile of warehousing units is similar in comparison to neighbouring regions.

• Spatially within the capital, the East London subregion contains almost one-third of floorspace, following by the Western sub-region with almost a further one-quarter of stock (23.7%). The North London sub-region holds 13.1% of floorspace.

• Industrial and warehousing stock is decreasing, falling by 1.1% (300,000sq m) between 2000 and 2003. This decline was seen across all subregions for factory space but an increase in warehousing, with the exception of Central London which saw both stocks decline. While experiencing a 15.2% decline in factory space, North London saw the highest growth in the warehousing sector (12.8%).

• The overall market in London is tight. The overall vacancy rate is around 8.2% of floorspace, rents are comparatively high and rental growth strong

• Across London, the pressure on demand for industrial/warehousing floorspace is strong in

comparison to other parts of the UK. Within this are marked sub-regional variations in demand, with the strongest pressure in the West London and South London sub-regions. Within this context the North London sub-region is experiencing average levels of demand.

• Within North London the total industrial/warehousing stock was 3.5 million m2 in 20036, the main focus of stock and demand being Enfield which accounts for more than 40% of stock. While Enfield has the ability to accommodate large-scale requirements, the other three boroughs operate in a much more medium to small units market. Generally the market is finely balanced with a stock vacancy rate of 8.1% and land vacancy rate of 6.9%. Outside of the Strategic Employment Land locations, land is subject to pressure from high value uses such as residential and mixed use development.

A brief commentary on the commercial market in each borough is outlined below.

3.4.1 Barnet Barnet generally has a small and fragmented industrial/warehousing base with a scattering of sites across the borough. Key clusters of activity include the New Southgate area incorporating Brunswick Park; the Mill Hill area which includes a number of medium sized industrial estates; and Colindale incorporating three adjacent clusters. This stock is in the main well

6 Source: ODPM, 2003


occupied but they are not any significant proposed industrial development in the borough. Industrial rents range from £6.75 per sq ft to £8.25 per sq ft for higher specification. Yields range from 6.5% to 8%.

The office market in recent years has not been particularly strong, witnessed by the fact there has been no speculative office developments for 10-15 years. Economically, the local market place is not prepared to pay rent which is adequate to finance the build cost of new offices. The anticipated out-sourcing of Central London functions to the borough has not materialised so demand tends to be local in nature. Office rents range from £10 per sq ft to £12 per sq ft, with yields between 7% and 9%.

3.4.2 Enfield Enfield contains the largest concentration of industrial/warehousing activity in the sub-region and experiences the strongest demand, which comes from both local and national companies. The property crash of the early 1990s effectively halted all speculative commercial development in this region and the first new industrial buildings developed (without pre-lets or presales) was circa 1997. Subsequent to that there have only been a handful of further “schemes” although a number of opportunities are now beginning to arise following developers purchase of sites or buildings. Of specific note is the speculative Brixton Plc scheme at A10 Exchange which extends to some 96,000 sq ft in units from 2,500 sq ft. Early lettings show that there is a demand from occupiers for quality space and that rents necessary to undertake such development are achievable with effort.

It is estimated there is potentially 450,000 sq ft of new small and medium sized warehouse/industrial accommodation in the planning pipeline or under construction. This will almost entirely be based upon sites which were formerly occupied by single or larger users. Industrial rents range from £6.00 per sq ft to £8.95 per sq ft, yields ranging from 6.5% to 8.5%.

For historic reasons the North Eastern sector of London, and specifically the M25, has not seen a huge demand for office space for in the last fifteen years. The office demand, which is naturally focused on those currently situated in Central London has not seen a drift into this region and has been more focused on the western London corridor. Thus office demand has tended to come almost entirely from companies who are historically situated in this area and local service companies such a solicitors, accountants plus the usual local authorities.

Within the LBE area there are very few locations which could be defined as office “zones”. Innova Park is the only recently built office stock, totalling some 30,000 sq ft and is approximately 75% occupied. Within Enfield Town itself are a number of individual multi storey office buildings at River Front and Southbury Road. These are of mixed age varying from 1960s construction up to mid 1980s, the majority of which would not meet the specification required for Grade A office occupiers. A majority of these buildings were originally occupied by single companies as head office or similar but due to change in business structures across the region most of the offices in this area are now multi-let on a floor or


part floor basis. Office rents in the borough range from £11.00 per sq ft to £15.00 per sq ft.

3.4.3 HaringeyThe London Borough of Haringey potentially has the oldest industrial/warehousing stock in the sub-region. It is clear from recent market activity that there exists a reasonable demand for small and medium sized industrial units in the borough although such demand will undoubtedly begin to wane as the available stock becomes more and more obsolete. Whilst some speculative construction has commenced in neighbouring boroughs over the last few years there are very few opportunities in Haringey for redevelopment on reasonably sized sites. The lack of single large occupiers and the highly fragmented ownership on many sites has restricted market opportunities for redevelopment. There is likely to be some new small unit industrial development in the borough entirely on the “back” of residential scheme at Bounds Green and Coppetts Road whilst similar opportunities may arise elsewhere in the Borough. Industrial rents range from £6.00 per sq ft to £8.00 per sq ft, with yields between 6.5% and 8%.

LBH has never been perceived as a key office location, in part due to the lack of available development land but in the main due to its proximity to the centre of London. Therefore office demand in borough comes almost entirely from companies historically situated in the area, or businesses whose clear aim is to provide a service within the borough or its close proximity. Also, in line with all boroughs of this density, there is a relatively large quantity of space occupied by local

authority and ancillary users. Offices rents are around £11.00 per sq ft with yields around 9%.

3.4.4 Waltham Forest The industrial / warehousing product in Waltham Forest is in the main fragmented, with no major new industrial development in the borough for perhaps ten years, save for two smaller schemes in the Argall Avenue area (with the obvious exception of those occupiers who have constructed their own bespoke buildings). The borough ostensibly caters well for the small business operator since there are potentially a variety of suitable units available in the sub 5,000 sq ft sector ranging from “break up” units round Stafford Road to more modern 1980s stock in locations such as Harrow Road and Hainault Road, Leyton plus a number of schemes around the Blackhorse Lane area.

At the larger end of the industrial scale, there are limited units in excess of 20,000 sq ft which meet modern requirement but this in general reflects the fact that the internal road infrastructure is not particularly suited to major distribution. Units of 10-20,000 sq ft approx are in the main situated around Billet Road and Argall Avenue.

A surprisingly large amount of industrial stock remains from the 1950s / 1960s, an era which saw large tranches of development on individual plots by growing post war businesses. Such units, whilst potentially approaching the end of their useful constructional life, and generally having high densities, are still popular as they are relatively affordable on a freehold basis. Those estates within the borough which were constructed in


the late 1970s / early 1980s are in general terms still useable in the modern business environment and, although many are in single investment ownerships, with good management and maintenance they will still have a long lifespan and thus imminent redevelopment is unlikely. Industrial rents vary between £6.00 per sq ft to £8.00 per sq ft, with yields between 6.5% and 8%.

Whilst historically the borough was home to some major employers in the past, it has never been a major location for office centres. There has certainly been no speculative office development in the borough on any large scale for probably 15 years and, with demand generally only coming from local occupiers and those already established in the borough, the situation is predicted to continue. Aside from those offices which are ancillary to industrial users, there are clusters of buildings in locations such as Church Road, Leyton, Fulbourne Road, Walthamstow and High Road, Leytonstone. In the main such buildings would be 1960s / 1970s construction and they are generally now multi occupied. Office rents are in the region of £11.00 per sq ft and attract yields of 9%.

3.5 Transport Overview

The availability and ease of transport movements, both public and private transport, will have a significant impact on the potential utilisation and development of North London employment land. As a result a review of the existing and proposed transport situation within North London has been undertaken and is outlined below drawn from the North London Transport Study, Final Report (JMP Consultants, 2004).

3.5.1 Existing Transport InfrastructureThere is a significant amount of private and public transport infrastructure within North London as shown in Figures 3.2 and 3.3 below. The existing road infrastructure includes a mixture of radial and orbital routes, while the rail infrastructure is almost solely radial.

Figure 3.2 shows the significant radial roads within the area which include the A1055 and A10 in the east and the A1 and M1 in the west. The main radial road shown within the area is the A406 North Circular Road while the M25 runs along the northern edge of the area. From Figure 3.3 it can be seen that almost all of the rail infrastructure within the area is radial with the exception of the North London Line (between Gospel Oak and Barking). The London Underground lines within the area, from east to west, are the Central Line, Victoria Line, Piccadilly Line, Northern Line (High Barnet and Mill Hill East Branch) and Northern Line (Edgware Branch). The key main line railway lines within the areas include the Stansted / Cambridge Line, Stevenage Line, East Coast Mainline, and Midland Mainline.

3.5.2 Baseline Conditions and Issues A wide range of significant transport conditions and issues were identified including:

• Traffic congestion has a negative influence on the image of North London


Source: North London Transport Study, Final Report (JMP Consultants, 2004) Figure 3.2 Existing North London Road Network


Source: North London Transport Study, Final Report (JMP Consultants, 2004) Figure 3.3 Existing North London Railway Network


• Rail and underground services focus on radial movements and as a result there is a lack of good quality and efficient orbital public transport

dark blue areas having the least accessibility. This shows that the major town centres, where there is interchange opportunities between rail and bus

• High levels of traffic congestion reduce the areas services, have the highest accessibility while more accessibility to car and freight transport remote areas like the Lea Valley have the significantly

• Poor accessibility in opportunities areas, lower accessibility. especially the Lea Valley, means that these areas are not currently achieving their maximum potential

• Walking and cycling is an underused mode of transport in the Lea Valley

• The car dominates mobility of North London residents as follows:

- North London residents make three quarters of all private trips within North London (56% by car, 29% by cycling and only 15% by public transport)

- Most travel movements out of the subregion are to destinations in Central London or East London sub-regions (57% of trips to Central London are by public transport and 62% of journeys to East London are by car)

- The majority of orbital movements are made by car

The generally poor public transport accessibility of much of North London is further shown by Figure 3.4 which shows the Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL)7 with the bright red areas having the best and

The PTAL maps produced by Transport for London show the relative levels of public transport accessibility of locations within Greater London

Source: TfL / North London Transport Study, Final Report (JMP Consultants, 2004) Figure 3.4 Public Transport Accessibility Levels

3.5.3 Opportunities and Key Initiatives To address these conditions and issues a range of opportunities and key initiatives are proposed. These include:

• Improve management of North Circular traffic – Undertake a range of measures to improve traffic flows on the North Circular and minimise any negative environmental and social issues


7

• Improve the Lee Valley rail infrastructure– Significantly improve the accessibility of the Lea Valley through rail and interchange infrastructure investments

• Develop a new orbital transit system – Creation of a new orbital transit system that enables car trips to be replaced

• Increase mode interchange opportunities– Increased accessibility throughout the sub-region through improved connections and interchanges between existing public transport services

• Provide better localised travel information – Encouraging the use of public transport through the provision of significantly improved public transport travel information

• Encourage environmentally friendly transport modes – Using the development of additional pedestrian and cycle connections between residential and employment areas to encourage the increased utilisation of environmentally friendly modes of transport

• Encourage freight and logistics operations – Establish the sub-region as London’s gateway to the UK for freight distribution and logistics with particular focus on the Lea Valley and areas close to the M25


4 Existing Employment Land Supply A key component of this study has been a visual field survey of employment land clusters located within the North London Boroughs of Barnet, Enfield, Haringey and Waltham Forest. This survey was undertaken in March/April 2005 to identify key existing employment land characteristics such as the amount of land used for employment uses, distribution of existing employment land uses, typical cluster size and site floorspace distributions, and general site quality and operational issues.

The North London employment land supply results are outlined below while individual borough results are provided in Sections 7 to 10.

of employment land in North London are summarised as follows.

• A total of 104 employment land clusters identified and surveyed within North London containing 2,402 individual employment sites.

• The Gross Employment Land covered by these clusters was 742ha, equating to about 3% of the North London gross area.

• This area however includes a range of both public and private roads and open space along with the employment sites that are the focus of the survey. Once these have been removed from the data then North London is left with approximately 670ha of Net Employment Land (around 90% of

4.1 Gross and Net Employment Land the total area surveyed).

A total of 104 North London employment clusters were mapped during the visual field survey work. All of these sites were identified through consultation with officers from the relevant local Council and were digitally mapped to produce a database of employment land data within North London. A summary of the key information from this database is provided in Table 4.1below. Key conclusions regarding the overall quantum

• The vast majority of this Net Employment Land is located within Enfield (359ha which is 54% of the total) with lesser amounts found in Waltham Forest (135ha or 20%) and Haringey (121ha or 18%). Only a limited amount was found within Barnet (56ha or 8%).

The locations of all of these North London employment clusters are shown on the four A1 Existing Land Use Maps that are provided with this report.


Table 4.1 Gross Employment Land

Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

4.2 Land for Industrial/Warehousing Uses

The analysis of employment land in North London needs to focus on the level of Net Employment Land that is actually used for employment generating industrial and distribution activities. Analysis therefore needs to exclude uses that could not reasonably be considered to fall into these categories. Net employment land minus inappropriate land uses therefore equates to Net Employment Land in Industrial/Warehousing Use.

Halcrow has developed a bottom up employment land definition based on the typical range of employment land uses that are found within Greater London employment land8, developed from the visual land

This typical range is based on the data collected during this study, the Lower Lea Business Survey (URS, 2004), Barking and Dagenham and Havering

Area Number of Clusters Number of Sites

Gross Employment Land

(ha) Net Employment

Land (ha) Gross Borough

Area (ha)

Gross Employment Land

as Percentage Borough (%)

Barnet 20 228 61.3 55.7 8,653 0.7 Enfield 25 807 404.2 359.1 8,192 4.9 Haringey 25 715 133.2 120.6 2,950 4.5 Waltham Forest 34 652 143.3 134.6 3,866 3.7

Total 104 2,402 742.0 669.9 23,661 3.1

survey and previous employment land studies in Greater London. A wider range of land uses in employment areas are identified from this work than would be generally be expected under the B2/B8 General Industrial and Storage and Distribution Use Class classification. For example the following activities were found to be typically located within employment areas from North London to the Lower Lea Valley and London Riverside:

• motor vehicle sales • public transport maintenance facilities and depots • taxi and car hire businesses • council depots and vehicle storage areas • renting of machinery and equipment • construction support activities

Industrial Land Study (URS, 2003), and Leaside Arc Business Survey and Planning Policy Review (URS, 2003).


8

All of these uses however are not generally consideredto be B2/B8 uses (though they are often found adjacent to these uses). Rather they are usually considered to be Sui Generis (i.e. a use on its own). As a result a broad employment use definition has been developed by taking into account the general likelihood of the activity to be located within a Greater London employment area. This is presented in Table 4.29 .

Along with the sectoral definition, a range of other activities have also been defined to allow for the practical limitations of the visual survey process. These include ‘multiuse’, ‘under construction’, ‘vacant or derelict’ and ‘unknown’.

During the survey a range of other non-employment land related activities were also identified within the employment cluster boundaries but excluded from the analysis. These activities included:

� Residential � Retail � Hotels, restaurants, and bars � Office based businesses � Education facilities � Health and social welfare facilities

� Entertainment, recreational and sporting activities

4.2.1 Analysis of Net Employment Land in Industrial/Warehousing UseTable 4.2 showed that using the NLELS employment land use definition, 2,041 employment sites were identified within North London (85% of total identified sites) and these sites cover an area of 589ha (88% of the net employment area). The most significant land use categories by both site numbers and land areas are wholesale, warehousing, and motor vehicle sales which combined account for 46% of employment sites (943 sites) and 41% of employment site land area (239ha).

In comparison the bottom three land use categories by site area are textile, wood and paper products, and public administration (SIC 17 to 21 and 75). Combined these categories account for just 17ha of employment site land area (3%) and 95 employment sites (5%).

Also from Table 4.2 a range of other relevant information can also be derived.

• A relatively small number of sites (39 sites covering and area of 9ha) were identified as being multi use. These typically consist of older multistorey buildings with different uses on separate floors.

• A surprisingly small amount of construction activity was identified, although this may have been affected by the timing of the survey work. A total of9 It is noted that the NLELS definition of industrial/warehousing uses is broader 10 sites were found to be under construction than used in the RTP Greater London study. This reflects the more detailed

understanding of uses in North London. covering an area of 6ha.


Table 4.2 Net Employment Land in Industrial/warehousing uses (NLELS Definition)

Land Use Number of Employment Sites

Percentage of Sites (%)

Net Employment Land (ha)

Percentage of Net Employment Land

(%)

Food and Tobacco (SIC 15 to 16 and 55.5) 78 3.8 37.9 6.4 Textile (SIC 17 to 19) 58 2.8 7.0 1.2 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20 to 21) 29 1.4 4.3 0.7 Printing (SIC 22) 97 4.8 12.3 2.1 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23 to 26) 40 2.0 14.7 2.5 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27 to 36) 100 4.9 26.0 4.4 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 33 1.6 22.0 3.7 Construction (SIC 45) 53 2.6 8.5 1.4 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 213 10.4 38.7 6.6 Wholesale (SIC 51) 483 23.7 108.0 18.3 Warehousing (SIC 63) 247 12.1 91.8 15.6 Transport (SIC 60) 41 2.0 18.8 3.2 Utilities (SIC 40 to 41) 10 0.5 19.8 3.4 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) 36 1.8 9.8 1.7 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 30 1.5 12.6 2.1 Public Administration (SIC 75) 8 0.4 5.2 0.9 Multi Use 39 1.9 9.4 1.6 Under Construction 10 0.5 5.6 1.0 Vacant or Derelict 179 8.8 95.8 16.3 Unknown 257 12.6 40.8 6.9

Total 2,041 100.0 589.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


• Around 16% of the employment site area (equating to 179 employment sites and 96ha employment area) was either vacant or derelict. This is significantly higher than the 7.4% that was identified during December 200310.

• In fact the proportion of vacant or derelict is likely to be actually higher than this as some of the sites identified as unknown (257 employment sites and 41ha of employment land) are also likely to be vacant or derelict; however it was not possible to confirm this on the day of the survey.

4.3 Area and Floorspace Analysis

The area and floorspace analysis focuses on the distribution of net cluster and site areas across North London, along with the site floorspace distribution.

4.3.1 Cluster Size Distribution A key factor in the renewal and development viability of existing gross employment land clusters will be the cluster size. As a result an analysis of the collected survey data has been undertaken to review this issue. The results of this assessment are presented in Table 4.3 and summarised below.

• Just under half the North London employment land is located within nine very large employment clusters (9% of the identified clusters) each of which is 15.1ha or larger. In addition 85% of this

Industrial and Warehousing Land Demand in London (RTP et al, 2004)

large employment cluster area is located within Enfield and just over one third is found within the Brimsdown Industrial Area (which has a net cluster employment area of 115.1ha).

• Small employment clusters (0.0 to 2.0ha) make up around two fifths of the employment clusters surveyed and are predominantly located in Barnet and Waltham Forest. A smaller number are found in Enfield and tend to be located away from the main employment land corridor of the Lea Valley.

• The majority of the intermediate employment land clusters (2.1 to 15.0ha) are located in Waltham Forest and Haringey and account for 49% of the North London employment land

4.3.2 Site Size Distribution The net area of employment sites within each cluster is also important in understanding the North London employment land demand. Table 4.4 provides information on the distribution of site sizes across North London. Key results that should be taken from this table include:

• There is a broad spectrum of employment sites found within North London from very small (less than 250m2) through to the extremely large (100,000m2 plus)

• The vast majority of the sites are small to medium with 55% of sites found within the range of 1 to 1,000m2. However these sites cover approximately 9% of the net North London employment site area or just under 0.6 million m2

(or 58ha).


10

Table 4.3 Cluster Area Distributions

Cluster size - Net Employment Land (ha)

0.0-1.0 1.1-2.0 2.1-5.0 5.1-15.0 15.1+

Total

Barnet

7 5 4 4 -

20

Number of Clusters

Enfield Haringey

2 1 3 9 5 5 8 10 7 -

25 25

Waltham Forest

7 7

15 3 2

34

Number of Clusters

17 24 29 25 9

104

North London

Percentage of Clusters

(%)

Net Employment

Area (ha)

16.3 11.9 23.1 35.5 27.9 99.1 24.0 255.4 8.7 298.0

100.0 669.9

Percentage Employment

Area (%)

1.8 5.3

14.8 33.7 44.5

100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Table 4.4 Site Size Distribution

Site Size - Net Employment Area (m2)

1-250 251-500 501-1,000 1,001-1,500 1,501-3,000

Number of Sites North London

Barnet

36 37 46 38 36

Enfield

83 130 139 95

140

Haringey

166 147 157 79 78

Waltham Forest

103 117 160 64

120

Number of Sites

390 429 502 276 374


16.2 17.9 20.9 11.5 15.6

Net Employment

Area (m2)

59,739 158,393 363,621 336,270 793,857

Percentage Employment

Area (%)

0.9 2.3 5.4 5.0

11.8

Total Sites

3,001-5,000 5,001-10,000 10,001-20,000 20,000+

228

14 12 4 5

807

75 65 47 33

715

26 39 16 7

652

27 42 11 8

2,402

142 158 78 53

100.0

5.9 6.6 3.2 2.2

538,036 1,130,255 1,104,201 2,268,683

8.0 16.7 16.4 33.6

Total Area 556,552 3,593,731 1,257,976 1,344,798 6,753,055 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


• The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for 33% of sites and around 25% of net North London employment site area. This equates to just less than 1.7 million m2

(or 167ha).

• Around 4.9 million m2 of employment floorspace has been identified within North London

• The vast majority of this floorspace is located within Enfield (55%). Significant amounts were also located within Haringey (19%) and Waltham

• Finally the top 12% of sites cover just over 4.5 million m2 (or 450ha). This equates to around 67% of the net area covered by all North London employment sites.

Forest (19%) while only a limited amount was found in Barnet (7%).

• Around 5% of the identified employment sites have no building currently located upon them (these are likely to include a fair number of the

4.3.3 Site Floorspace Distribution vacant or derelict sites) The site floorspace distribution results are outlined in Table 4.5 with the key findings including:

Table 4.5 Site Floorspace Distribution

Site Floorspace Area (m2)

Number of Sites North London

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest

Number of Sites


Building Floorspace

(m2)

Percentage Available

Floorspace (%)

Zero 35 74 36 15 160 6.7 - -1-250 53 109 213 200 575 23.9 79,710 1.6 251-500 30 106 127 127 390 16.2 142,650 2.9 501-1,000 54 135 130 114 433 18.0 309,141 6.2 1,001-1,500 18 82 63 63 226 9.4 278,509 5.6 1,501-3,000 16 115 76 68 275 11.4 578,928 11.7 3,001-5,000 10 81 27 24 142 5.9 542,498 11.0 5,001-10,000 7 59 31 27 124 5.2 878,713 17.8 10,001-20,000 3 23 9 10 45 1.9 624,855 12.6 20,000+ 2 23 3 4 32 1.3 1,513,955 30.6

Total Sites 228 807 715 652 2,402 100.0

Total Floorspace 339,454 2,742,291 939,117 928,097 4,948,958 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


• Small buildings of between 1 and 250m2 in size are located on approximately 25% of employment sites. In addition almost 44% of employment sites have small to medium sized buildings in a range of sizes between 251 and 1,500m2.

• Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 17% of employment sites. While just under 9% of employment sites contain large to very large buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 272,000m2.

4.4 Site Quality and Other Issues

A range of information on general site quality and other relevant issues was also undertaken during the North London employment land survey work. This information is focused on the age and conditions of buildings,

Table 4.6 Building Age and Condition

potential site layout issues and constraints, and a range of potential environmental issues. The key information collected is presented within Tables 4.6, 4.7 and 4.8.

In summary the following are the key findings from this information:

• The building age and condition information was collected for almost all sites. This shows that the employment land building stock within the North London is generally quite good with the vast majority of buildings being identified as ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ and almost two thirds of buildings having an age of 30 years or less.

Condition of Buildings

Age of Buildings North London

1900 to 1944 1945 to 1964 1965 to 1984 1985 to 2005 Unknown Total Percentage (%)

Good 5 8 105 989 28 1,135 47.3 Reasonable 28 67 346 438 36 915 38.1 Poor 4 41 64 28 8 145 6.0 Very Poor - 4 6 3 1 14 0.6 Unknown 3 9 17 32 132 193 8.0

Total 40 129 538 1,490 205 2,402 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


Site Layout Issues Number of Sites North London

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Total Sites Percentage of Sites (%)

Poor HGV Access 8 31 55 3 97 4.0 No Parking On or Adjacent to the Site 49 84 46 37 216 9.0 Sloping Ground 25 3 - - 28 1.1

Table 4.7 Site Layout and Constraints


Table 4.8 Site Environmental Issues


• The site layout and constraints information was also collected for the majority of sites and this found the following information - Only a limited number of sites had ‘Poor HGV

Access’ arrangements and these were largely located within Enfield and Haringey.

- Around one tenth of employment sites were found to have ‘No Parking On or Adjacent to the Site’ and this was largely evenly spread across all four Boroughs.

Site Environmental Issues Number of Sites North London

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Total Sites Percentage of Sites (%)

Potential Contaminative Use 44 37 33 Not Collected 114 4.7 Potential Noise Issues 31 13 39 Not Collected 83 3.5 Potential Air Quality Issues 26 23 19 Not Collected 68 2.8

- Sloping ground was generally not a problem across North London with the exception of one or two Barnet Clusters

• Information on site environmental issues was not collected for the majority of the sites and in particular no information was collected for Waltham Forest sites. As a result only minor environmental issues were identified. Given the employment land uses located within North London (such as printing, car repairs, chemical manufacture, etc) this is almost certain an understatement of the true case.


5 Employment Land Demand 5.1 Approach

This section reviews the current and forecast demand for employment land in North London. The approach to the demand analysis centres around achieving a rigorous employment demand forecast informed by consultations and review of studies undertaken at a local level, in a ‘bottom-up’ approach that underpins the local employment forecasts and scenarios developed later in this chapter. The bottom up analysis included:

• Desk Study – A number of documents have been obtained throughout the study, including; previous employment land assessments, employment forecasts as well as more general background references at the district to regional level.

• Consultation – Semi-structured consultation with key officers from the four boroughs as well as regional and local business organisations were undertaken throughout February 2005 to March 2005

• Market Review – A local assessment of property market demand provided by Glenny LLP and used as a key source of up to date local information

The process for assessing employment land demand is shown in Figure 5.1 overleaf. The level of employment land demand in the study area is generated by forecasting the level of workplace employment from

which a resultant demand for sites and premises can be calculated. In order to ‘convert’ these net employment change forecasts by sector to estimates of employment land and floorspace demand, we have used a conversion matrix with employment densities gathered from published information and previous studies. To convert employment floorspace to the employment land requirements plot ratios assumptions have been made.

Each of the key assumptions in the method (employment forecasting, employment densities, plot ratios) is discussed below.

5.2 Employment Forecasts

Within the scope of the study a bespoke set of North London employment forecasts were developed. The core NLELS forecasts are locally based forecasts developed specifically for the study using PACEC’s in house model, LEPS (Local Economic Profiling System). In addition, a series of GLA consistent employment forecasts have been developed for comparative purposes to meet the GLA requirement that consistent projections are used for planning and policy purposes within the GLA group of organisations.


Source: PACEC Figure 5.1 Method for Forecasting Employment Land Demand

5.2.1 The NLELS Employment ForecastsPACEC’s LEPS model utilises data from the Annual Business Inquiry (and its predecessors), the Labour Force Survey and the Census of Population. The approach to forecasting local employment involves a four-step process:

• Estimate national economic growth (measured by GDP)

• Estimate national industrial employment growth (based on national GDP)

• Estimate local relative performance • Calculate local employment growth by industry

based on national growth, local performance and local structure

The LEPS forecast of national GDP is based on published forecasts and takes into account a wide range of factors. These include international economic performance, the international competitiveness of industries including the effects of sterling exchange rate movements against the dollar and the Euro, confidence and expectations, indebtedness, and macro-economic policy, the setting of interest rates by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the fiscal stance of government.

National employment by industry is forecast by analysing past changes in employment in relation to past changes in GDP (this encapsulates structural and productivity changes) and by taking into account known factors in each sector. Local and regional performance is forecast by analysing past changes in employment


by industry in relation to employment by industry nationally with adjustments made in the light of the local research gathered as part of the consultations

The forecast generates employment demand projections using the quantitative and qualitative sources by use class up to the end of the planning period, supplemented by a partial Labour Market Balance Sheet analysis to compare the employment demand forecasts with labour supply forecasts at an aggregated level, in order to assess the match between the two.

5.2.2 GLA Employment Forecasts The GLA have published a set of interim borough level employment projections for the period to 201611 that have been calculated using the ‘70:30 weighting methodology’ adopted in the London Plan (i.e. a 70 per cent weight was given to site capacity based projections and a 30 per cent weight to trend based projections. The forecast provides an indication of employment growth by sector at the regional level and forecasts of total employment growth for each borough. These estimates have been converted by PACEC into forecasts of employment growth across the various employment sectors for each borough, using historic trends in employment in each borough constrained by the totals in the forecasts provided. The resulting data has been reviewed and agreed with the GLA.

11 GLA; Current Issues Note 4: Interim borough level employment projections to 2016, May 2005

5.2.3 Comparison of Regional and North London Forecasts Table 5.1 presents the regional level forecasts produced by both the NLELS and GLA methods and shows that the NLELS forecast is more optimistic than the GLA forecast, predicting an increase in the total number of jobs of 19% compared to a GLA increase of 11%. Much of the difference is due to health and care services, public administration and construction sectors, which account for the majority of growth in the NLELS forecast. However, the change in the manufacturing sector12 is very similar between the forecasts with NLELS forecasting a 32% fall in employment compared to a 33% fall in the GLA forecasts. Many of the other variations between the two forecasts such as ‘wholesale’ may be attributable to the way that the base data has been aggregated into sector categories.

The disaggregation of these forecasts to the North London sub-regional level is shown in Table 5.2. The table clearly shows that the NLELS forecast is even more optimistic at the sub-regional level. Two key factors in this are: (i) the NLELS forecasts have been adjusted to reflect bottom-up analysis of the subregional economy, and (ii) the ‘70:30 methodology’ used by the GLA forecasts which influence the locational distribution of growth across London.

12 ‘Manufacturing’ is taken as the sum of the following sectors in Table 5.1: Chemical manufacture, Hi-Tech metal man/engineering, Non-metallic, nonchemical man. and Trad metal man/engineering.


Table 5.1 Greater London Employment Forecasts (2001-2016) as 22 Sector SIC13

Sector NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment base

2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Agriculture/Extraction 8,200 5,000 -39% 10,900 7,500 -31% Chemical manufacture 29,100 16,800 -42% 30,700 17,700 -43% Hi-Tech metal man/engineering 16,800 7,600 -55% 17,700 7,800 -56% Non-metallic, non-chemical man. 181,400 140,900 -22% 191,000 144,000 -25% Trad metal man/engineering 56,200 28,600 -49% 59,500 29,600 -50% Electricity, gas, water, waste 21,900 19,800 -10% 24,700 25,700 4% Construction 216,500 246,900 14% 209,800 138,000 -34% Motor vehicle sale, repair 63,700 56,100 -12% 65,600 69,400 6% Wholesale 182,700 153,100 -16% 188,000 188,600 0.3% Food retail 126,800 149,500 18% 124,800 141,500 13% Other retail 283,400 311,500 10% 279,000 296,500 6% Hotels and restaurants 296,900 443,100 49% 288,400 410,000 42% Transport, storage, communications 363,900 375,000 3% 372,400 327,000 -12% Financial intermediation 335,100 365,100 9% 360,200 354,000 -2% Property, renting 125,600 163,400 30% 122,200 169,600 39% Computing, R&D 144,300 161,500 12% 140,000 166,100 19% Professional business services 470,700 668,700 42% 455,500 687,900 51% Other business services 414,300 434,900 5% 402,200 447,400 11% Public admin, defence 208,000 243,900 17% 210,100 170,000 -19% Education 271,000 462,500 71% 277,300 329,200 19% Health, care 348,900 501,000 44% 357,100 355,900 -0.4% Personal services 365,200 451,100 24% 358,500 537,800 50% Total 4,530,600 5,405,900 19% 4,545,800 5,021,000 11%

Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, GLA 2005 Notes: 1. Figures rounded to the nearest 100. 2. Percentages may not add due to rounding

13 Variations in 2001 data between the two forecasts results from the ‘de-spiking’ of source data within each forecast to remove erroneous fluctuations in raw data.


Table 5.2 North London Employment Forecasts (2001-2016) as 22 Sector SIC14


2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Agriculture/Extraction 533 392 -26% 1,450 585 -60% Chemical manufacture 3,097 2,570 -17% 3,438 3,321 -3% Hi-Tech metal man/engineering 1,263 614 -51% 1,420 775 -45% Non-metallic, non-chemical man. 15,528 9,488 -39% 17,251 11,674 -32% Trad metal man/engineering 8,604 3,025 -65% 9,623 3,833 -60% Electricity, gas, water, waste 1,816 1,691 -7% 3,337 2,538 -24% Construction 28,083 24,668 -12% 28,969 15,614 -46% Motor vehicle sale, repair 7,652 7,168 -6% 8,196 8,819 8% Wholesale 21,294 17,701 -17% 22,779 20,740 -9% Food retail 16,752 20,235 21% 16,776 16,768 0% Other retail 29,570 37,524 27% 29,693 32,176 8% Hotels and restaurants 20,151 28,360 41% 20,722 28,388 37% Transport, storage, communications 25,530 30,038 18% 24,560 21,559 -12% Financial intermediation 9,651 8,830 -9% 13,767 10,968 -20% Property, renting 10,372 16,462 59% 11,356 19,077 68% Computing, R&D 8,783 7,644 -13% 9,626 8,559 -11% Professional business services 19,972 28,843 44% 21,830 32,782 50% Other business services 25,591 26,346 3% 28,160 29,078 3% Public admin, defence 17,305 21,540 24% 16,858 13,711 -19% Education 32,080 58,446 82% 33,078 41,397 25% Health, care 39,400 50,986 29% 40,722 35,367 -13% Personal services 22,412 24,588 10% 25,933 36,253 40% Total 365,439 427,159 17% 389,542 393,981 1%

Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, GLA 2005 Notes: 1. Figures rounded to the nearest 100. 2. Percentages may not add due to rounding

14 Variations in 2001 data between the two forecasts results from the ‘de-spiking’ of source data within each forecast to remove erroneous fluctuations in raw data. This is by nature more pronounced at a more local level.


5.2.4 North London Industrial and Warehousing London between 2001 and 2016. Key sectors of current Employment Forecasts demand are Construction (25%), Wholesale (19%) and From these total employment forecasts for North Transport (13%). While the first two sectors are London Table 5.3 has been derived to assess the forecast to decline in 2016 the overall employment in employment demand within the industrial/warehousing this sectors are forecast to employ approximately sectors (as defining in Section 4). These forecasts are 60,000 people, or 61% of total employment. The those taken forward to assess the demand for variation with the GLA forecast is explained primarily by employment land in the sub-region. the differing forecast views of the construction sector

and the transport sector in the sub-region. The NLELS forecasts indicate a 14% fall in the industrial and warehousing employment in north

Table 5.3 North London Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts (2001-2016)


2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 3,754 3,353 -10.7% 4,168 4,181 0.3% Textile (SIC 18-19) 3,911 488 -87.5% 4,293 630 -85.3% Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 1,093 481 -56.0% 1,217 610 -49.9% Printing (SIC 22) 4,336 3,718 -14.3% 4,864 4,417 -9.2% Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 3,097 2,570 -17.0% 3,438 3,321 -3.4% Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 12,301 5,087 -58.6% 13,751 6,445 -53.1% Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 1,040 1,211 16.4% 1,254 1,590 26.8% Construction (SIC 45) 28,083 24,668 -12.2% 28,969 15,614 -46.1% Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 7,652 7,168 -6.3% 8,196 8,819 7.6% Wholesale (SIC 51) 21,294 17,701 -16.9% 22,779 20,740 -9.0% Warehousing (SIC 63) 2,016 4,123 104.5% 1,889 2,805 48.5% Transport (SIC 60-62) 14,373 17,438 21.3% 13,464 12,213 -9.3% Utilities (SIC 40-41) 776 480 -38.1% 2,082 948 -54.5% Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 2,002 3,408 70.2% 2,223 4,309 93.8% Post and Communications (SIC 64) 7,779 5,681 -27.0% 7,810 4,278 -45.2% Total 113,507 97,575 -14.0% 120,400 90,918 -24.5%

Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003, GLA 2005


5.3 Assessing Employment Land Demand

The employment forecasts are converted to land demand by making assumptions on employment densities (to convert to employment floorspace) and plot ratios (to convert to employment land). These assumptions are set out below.

5.3.1 Employment Densities The main sources of potential information regarding employment densities considered include:

• Implied densities based on published information on the number of jobs in each borough and estimates of the amount of industrial land

• Published sources and studies, we examine ratios from guidance documents (ODPM, 2004) and the pan-London study of Industrial and Warehousing Land (GLA, 2005)

Broad Employment Densities As a comparative guide between the boroughs, Table 5.4 shows broad employment densities calculated for industrial and warehousing land using details on the total amount of rateable floorspace from the Office of the Deputy Prime Ministers (ODPM) data on floorspace and rateable value for commercial and industrial properties in 2003. This is compared to information from this study’s survey of land in each borough (see Section 4) and both are then translated into employment densities (gross floorspace per worker).

Table 5.4 compares the occupied building floorspace estimated by the NLELS survey with the ODPM

rateable floorspace 2003 (Manufacturing and Warehousing). While there are variations in the figures at the borough level the most significant variation is in Enfield. We believe this is because the survey has potentially over estimated the amount of floorspace in Enfield because of the large number of high bay warehouses in the borough15.

In terms of the level of employment in this occupied space we are reliant on ABI within manufacturing, wholesale, transport and construction as representative of the employment areas. This represents an underestimate of the number of workplace jobs as the survey has indicated a significant amount of retail uses. The estimates of employment density from the study and wider borough data are reasonable and reinforce a number of features about land use in the study area.

Published Employment Densities The Employment Land Reviews Guidance Note (ODPM 2004) provides some details on some key work examining employment densities and includes studies carried out by RTP in 1997 for SERPLAN and research by DTZ (2004). This is summarised in Table 5.5, below.

15 There is a significant proportion of high bay warehouses in Enfield and the number of internal stories are estimated from an external visual inspection to give an estimate of internal floorspace.


Table 5.4 Broad Estimate of Employment Densities, North London

Sectors Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest

North London

Estimate of existing workplace jobs - ABI (Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale & Transport - workplace jobs) [A] 24,759 33,086 20,978 16,653 95,476

Estimated area of occupied building floorspace – NLELS survey (m2) [B] 323,333 2,612,273 859,563 963,323 4,758,491

Area of occupied industrial land - ODPM rateable floorspace (m2 -Manufacturing and Warehouse) [C] 403,000 1,500,700 867,400 748,000 3,519,000

Broad Employment Density (gross floorspace / worker m2) - NLELS survey [C/A] 16 45 41 45 37

Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003

Table 5.5 Published Employment Densities, for London and the South East

Sectors Floor Space per Worker (m2) RTP, 1997

Floor Space per Worker (m2) DTZ Pieda, 2004

Offices 17.9 18.3

Industrial 31.8 38.2

Manufacturing 29.7 -

Warehousing (general) 40.1 -

Warehousing (with loading bays, e.g. DIY) - 78.2 Source: ODPM 2004

RTP recognise in their study of industrial and warehousing land across London (ODPM, 2004) that there is a significant lack of ‘up-to date research on employment density ratios and on the quality of jobs it provides’ and use estimates of 30m2 per worker for industrial workspace and 40m2 per worker for warehousing floorspace. Based on the above analysis

we propose to use the employment densities shown in Table 5.6.

It should be noted that employment densities for new industrial development will tend to be higher than existing employment densities as new industrial development tends to have a greater utilization.


Warehousing development as a result of advances in information technology has seen a shift toward the use of computers in logistics, for example to communicate orders between depots and head office demanding a greater amount of office space. In addition warehousing has also seen an increase in the use of hand packers to gather and pack web based orders.

area of industrial sites (total area of industrial sites up to site boundaries and includes local roads and parking spaces, etc.) for sites with buildings on them. Plot ratios are used to calculate the employment land demanded after employment densities have been used to calculate the amount of floorspace required in the forecast.

5.3.2 Plot ratios Plot ratios are the total gross floor area of a building (including walls and corridors, etc.) divided by the gross

Table 5.6 NLELS Employment Densities Broad Employment Land Use Category Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) Textile (SIC 18-19) Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) Printing (SIC 22) Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) Construction (SIC 45) Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) Wholesale (SIC 51) Warehousing (SIC 63) Transport (SIC 60-62) Utilities (SIC 40-41) Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) Post and Communications (SIC 64)

Employment Density (Gross Floorspace per Worker m2) 25-30 25-30 25-30 25-30 25-30 25-30 25-30 25-30 25-30 40-50 40-50 40-50 40-50 40-50 40-50

Source: PACEC


Our demand assessment utilises the plot ratio of 45% from the RTP Industrial & Warehousing Land Demand in London study, which was derived from ‘consultations with agents and our own experience’16. Sensitivities tested around this are 40% and 50%17.

5.3.3 Estimate of Employment Land DemandBased on the assumptions outlined above, Tables 5.7 to 5.9 present the North London employment land demand and change over the period 2001 to 2016. Given the ranges of the demand parameters discussed above, the table shows two sensitivities associated with a high and low employment density calculation, both based upon a core plot ratio assumption of 45%. The mid-range of these calculations is considered the core demand estimate for Net Employment Land in North London.

The NLELS forecast estimates that over the period 2001-2016 the demand for employment land will fall by approximately 95ha. However, the main fall in demand occurs between 2001 and 2005 (-83ha); and between 2005 and 2016 the demand for net employment land falls by only 12ha (13%). The main factor behind the reduced rate of land loss is that there is greater employment growth in sectors with lower employment densities, meaning that the ratio of land per employee increases over the period. The decrease

RTP: Industrial & Warehousing Land Demand in London, August 2004 (page 100)17 Note: it is also possible to derive bespoke plot ratios specifically for North London sites but these have not been used in the scope of this study.

in employment between 2001 and 2005 is primarily associated with three sectors: metals and machinery; construction, and wholesale. Beyond this period, while these sectors continue to decline, the fall is compensated by growth in other sectors.

With regards to the demand across the four Boroughs, the greatest fall in demand is anticipated in Barnet (51ha) and Waltham Forest (43ha), whereas increasing demand is predicted for Enfield. Detailed analysis at the Borough level is provided in Part 2 of this report.

This contrasts with the GLA based employment land assessment that forecasts demand for employment land will fall by approximately 199ha in the period 2001-2016, with a loss of 90ha in the period 2005-2016. The reasons for this are attributable to the employment forecast base explained above. For example, the decline of employment in the construction sector contributes almost 45ha of this effect.

5.4 Sensitivity Testing

Sensitivity testing of the NLELS forecasts have been undertaken to help establish potential demand parameters. This testing has included looking at the Plot Ratio assumption and alternative employment demand scenarios.

5.4.1 Plot Ratio AssumptionsSensitivity testing has been undertaken using high and low plot ratio assumptions of 50% and 40% respectively.


16

Table 5.6 Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)

2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 791 716 711 704 705 836 738 731 690 656

Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 971 880 874 866 868 1,026 906 897 848 807

Mid-range 881 798 793 785 786 931 822 814 769 732 Source: PACEC Note: Figures may not add due to rounding

Table 5.7 Change in Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)







Mid-Range -95 -12 -199 -90 Source: PACEC Note: Figures may not add due to rounding

Table 5.8 Change in Net Employment Land Demand by Borough (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)





Barnet -51 -9 -57 -12

Enfield 14 26 -47 -24

Haringey -14 -12 -31 -24

Waltham Forest -43 -17 -63 -30

North London Sub-Region -95 -12 -199 -90 Source: PACEC Note: Figures may not add due to rounding


Based on the high plot ratio assumption of 50%, the NLELS forecast indicates a demand fall of 86ha for the period 2001-2016 (a fall of 11ha for the period 20052016). Using a low ratio of 40%, change in land demand 2001-2016 is -107ha (a fall of 13ha in the period 2005-2016).

5.4.2 Demand Scenarios Within the timeframe of the forecast period there are a range of potential initiatives, policies, market responses, etc. that will impact the demand for employment land across North London. This section assesses the potential impact of various scenarios on demand. Three scenarios have been generated:

• Policy-Led scenario • Market-Led scenario • Olympics scenario

Policy Led Scenario This scenario examines the impact of key policies on market behaviour for land use and is based on a review of available policy documents and consultations18. The analysis period to 2016 does not allow for analysis to examine the full growth potential of major policies such as the Thames Gateway development. It is therefore

18 The London Plan Spatial Development Strategy, The London Economic Development Strategy, North London Draft Sub-Regional Development Framework (Working - March 2005), Haringey City Growth Strategy, Waltham Forest Regeneration and Investment Strategy, Haringey Employment Study, Atkins, Nov. 2004

recognised that only a number of policy and transport proposals will be in place by 2016 or partially realised. Given the large number of initiatives underway, this scenario only focuses on the most significant, namely:

• Proposals and priorities within the London Plan • Growth Area implications (LSCP Corridor, Thames

Gateway) • London Transport Policies

The above scenario has been translated into impacts on the various North London employment sectors using various adjustments to the forecast. Key scenario assumptions:

• Consultations revealed that local organisation did not perceive that the growth areas would have a significant effect on employment land demand even for high-value added industries

• Policy indicates renewal of some urban town centres – points to future land demand for mixeduse development (retail, housing and office development), especially if renewing sites and higher density development

• Office development mostly in terms of Enterprise Hub / Business centres and cluster development along sector lines i.e. creative / cultural sector. More likely to be associated with mixed-use development.

• Renewal of, rather than development of land specifically for manufacturing land

• Transport to enhance economic development prospects especially for Waltham Forest, Tottenham Hale, Leyton. Will have particular


importance for prospects for land use in distribution and logistics.

• Enfield to benefit most from distribution and transport related economic activities

• Plans for education developments for Middlesex Campus. Health sector to grow by Whipps Cross.

Market Led Scenario This scenario broadly assumes that demand will be driven by market forces which are not limited by policy interventions and in simple terms gives the market the opportunity to develop what it wants in North London. It also assumes that some of the infrastructure (as well as policy) barriers are lifted to enable the market to realise ‘pent-up’ demand. This analysis has been shaped from Glenny’s market assessment as well as the North London Product Review19 which examined North London as a location for business investment. Key scenario assumptions include:

• Land owners and developers will push for the development of the most profitable use of land, pushing out the least profitable uses (mostly commercial and industrial businesses)

• Businesses are free to relocate to and from any other location in order to keep their operational costs to a minimum (‘footloose across the region’)

• London’s growing population will maintain a high demand for housing

19 North London Product Review: Locum Destination Consulting, August 2004.

• There are no labour market constraints, either in the supply of skills or labour force

• We assume that the ‘target markets’ identified in the North London Product Review are able to develop to their full extent over the forecast period, namely: manufacturing, distribution, retail and leisure, office based services and creative industries

• The scenario envisages a significant increase in the amount of retail across the study sites (particularly those in proximity to roads) as well as a greater realisation of the potential for office based services in some boroughs (despite little current demand for the existing stock)

• Much of the marginal study sites or those adjacent housing stock will be developed with new high density housing, this will also support growth in the construction sector

• There is also greater scope for growth in the personal services and health sectors, particularly with children and elderly care.

Olympic Scenario Underpinning the London Olympics Games 2012 Bid (L2012) is the development of the Lower Lea Valley, providing physical environmental and socio-economic regeneration benefits for the communities who live and work there.

The Masterplan Area occupies a total surface area of roughly 7 km² incorporating four boroughs (Waltham Forest, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and Hackney). The area is largely characterised by remnants of past industrial and residential uses and major areas of


derelict land. Low intensity industrial activities and land uses dominate, in the form of old works, storage facilities, compounds and warehouse / distribution centres; interspersed with a number of business parks, of varying quality.

A comprehensive redevelopment of this area is proposed, likely to start in 2006 and to be complete by 2020 (legacy development). The development will involve the construction of facilities including:

• the main Olympic Stadium and supporting facilities • the main Press Centre and International

Broadcast Centre, Olympic Village and other supporting facilities

• major infrastructure and services • bridges, land bridges and underpasses • site regrading, remediation and enabling

engineering works

In addition the Post-Olympic Legacy will also involve the construction of residential, business, industrial, retail, leisure and recreation, educational and community facilities as well as the creation of further open space.

It is estimated by the LDA that more than 10,000 jobs would be created in the local area, and up to 70,000 volunteers would be required to help run the Olympic and Paralympics Games in 2012. The successful bid means that it will be necessary to re-locate local businesses (approximately 5,500 jobs), and the LDA is working with local boroughs to develop packages of

support to help with relocation, including training and direct grants.

The above scenario has been translated into impacts on the various North London employment sectors using the following assumptions:

• Geographically, North London would be well placed to receive relocated firms, displaced by development, though rateable values for commercial and industrial land and the potential for displacement of retail, (reliant on local catchments) may create some problems. Waltham Forest would provide the best location in terms of rateable value, Barnet and Enfield are significantly more costly.

• It is expected that all North London boroughs will receive short term (in the years preceding and following 2012) positive impacts on employment and which in this model translates to land demand, especially in construction and businesses along the supply chain, including those that may import and finish goods such as souvenirs. A large number of casual and part time jobs will be created by the Olympics, for example stewards, ticket sellers, etc. which will be filled by individuals from the wider London pool of labour.

• The medium term may see some competition from new business opportunities arising from the Masterplan development, although it is possible that the combined effects of improvements in infrastructure required to deliver the Masterplan as well as the creation of a new sub-regional focus


may act as a catalyst for development in the wider employment increase predicted under the Market-led North London area scenario with the lowest forecast for the Olympic

• It should be noted that consultations with local organisations revealed that they were less optimistic about the long term impact of the Olympics on the study area.

scenario. In terms of industrial and warehousing employment a similar picture emerges with the scenarios generated between 2,066 and 2,917 additional jobs over and above NLELS core forecasts.

Comparison of Scenarios Table 5.9 shows the net employment contribution made by each scenario over and above the core NLELS forecast. All scenarios indicate there would be additional employment created, the greatest

As seen in Table 5.10, this translates to very little difference in land demand, showing a fall of between 85ha and -103ha for high and low employment densities respectively.

Table 5.9 Net Employment contribution by Scenario, 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 Policy Led (ha) Market Led (ha) Olympic (ha)

All Sectors NLELS Land Definition All Sectors NLELS Land

Definition All Sectors NLELS Land Definition

Employment Change 2001 – 2016 9,393 2,917 10,266 2,354 3,283 2,066

Employment Change 2005 – 2016 8,613 2,685 9,395 2,156 3,183 1,966 Source: PACEC

Table 5.10 Net Employment Land Demand by Scenario (2001-2016) Policy Led (ha) Market Led (ha) Olympic (ha)

2001 2016 Change 2001 2016 Change 2001 2016 Change Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 791 706 -85 791 706 -85 791 705 -86

Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 971 869 -102 971 869 -102 971 868 -103

Mid-Range 881 788 -94 881 788 -94 881 787 -94 Source: PACEC Note: Figures may not add due to rounding


5.5 Conclusions

The demand assessment for industrial and warehousing land in North London provides the following conclusions.

• In the period 2001-2016 the demand for Net Employment Land in the sub-region is estimated to fall by 95ha.

• In the period 2005-2016, however, the demand for Net Employment Land in the sub-region is estimated to fall by only -12ha. This suggests that in terms of the structural change the large fall in demand occurred in the period 2001-2005.

• Two main reasons account for the slow down in the fall of structural demand in the period 20052016. Firstly, the decline in some of the traditional sectors in the economy is compensated for by other and newer sectors. Secondly, these sectors are associated with lower employment densities, which translate as an increase in land requirement per worker.

• Forecast demand indicates that only the Borough of Enfield will have positive demand for land during 2001-2016. During this time period Barnet and Waltham Forest boroughs are expected to see the largest falls in industrial land demand.

• The analysis indicates that the demand model is sensitive in a number of areas. Firstly, sensitivity to plot ratio assumptions is considered moderate with the testing providing a range of land demand change for the period 2001 to 2016 of between 86ha and -107ha (i.e. a range of +/-12% from the core scenario. Secondly, demand is highly

sensitive to the employment forecasting demand used, as demonstrated by the variation between the NLELS and GLA demand estimates.

• The second point above is further illustrated by the fact that the three land demand scenarios – policyled, market-led and Olympic – indicate that the impact on land demand would be negligible because additional employment created would be relatively small compared to total employment growth; and because the majority of employment would not be created in industrial sectors (i.e. NLELS land use definition).


6 North London Key Findings 6.1 Key Outcomes

• The level of Net Employment Land in industrial / warehousing use is 18% lower than gross employment land allocations in North London.

• A significant proportion of designated employment land has been ‘effectively lost’ to non-employment land related uses (including residential, retail and other uses).

• Employment land supply is heavily concentrated towards a small number of large employment areas and is also dominated by the provision in Enfield.

• The general quality of employment land in the sub-region is considered relatively good, with a range of sites and premises providing a diverse offer for the market. However, this offer changes significantly across the four Boroughs in the subregion, with the larger and more intense activities focused towards the eastern side of the subregion (in Enfield and Waltham Forest)

• The level of vacant/derelict land in the sub-region provides potential land release opportunity but this is largely restricted to Enfield.

• Employment in industrial/warehousing uses is forecast to decrease by 14% in the period 20012016. The commensurate fall in demand for employment land in the period is estimated at approximately 95ha.

• This fall in demand will mainly result in a significantly reduced land requirement in the Boroughs of Barnet and Waltham Forest.

• However, the demand assessment for the period 2005-2016 suggests that significant economic structuring has already taken place in the period 2001-2005 which reduces the potential land release in the period to 2016 to around 50ha.

6.2 Employment land supply

This study has provided a detailed analysis and understanding of the employment land supply in the North London sub-region through primary site survey. A total of 104 key North London employment clusters were identified and mapped during the survey.

The total land area of these 104 sites (including roads and public space) is estimated at 742ha or around 3% of total land in the sub-region. However the analysis of these sites identified a total of 150 different employment land uses existing on these sites, a number of which can be classed as outside the classification of ‘industrial/warehousing’ uses. The removal of these sites results in the identification of the level of employment land used industrial/warehousing’ activities that equates to 589ha (79% of gross employment land). This is referred to as ‘Net Employment Land in Industrial and Warehousing’ use. Of this figure, 96ha (16%) is vacant or derelict and


41ha (6%) is in ‘unclassified use’. An overall of the land study20, and the level could be considered as supply in North London is provided in Table 6.1 below. natural. It suggests a potential for any future

land release.

Table 6.1 North London Land Supply Summary 6.2.1 Quality of Employment Land Area (ha) While the overall level of employment land stock is

important, the quality and characteristics of the stock Gross employment land 742.0 are also important in understanding the relationship Net employment land (excluding roads and public 669.9 between supply and demand. The key characteristics open space) are summarised below. Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 589.1 (including unclassified uses) • The most significant land uses by land area are Vacant or derelict land 95.8 wholesale, warehousing and motor vehicle ‘Unknown’ 40.8 sales/repair which combined account for 41% of

Source: Halcrow (April 2005) employment land area. • Employment land is highly concentrated on a

small number of large employment sites. Indeed, Two key conclusions can be drawn from this analysis: nine large employment areas account for 45% of

net employment land in the sub-region. • First, what is demonstrated is that a significant

proportion of the identified stock of designated employment land in North London has in fact been lost to uses that are not classed as industrial/warehousing uses. The result is that the ‘actual’ stock of industrial/warehousing sites and premises is significantly more constrained than overall levels of employment land designations suggest.

• Equally there is a large concentration in Enfield which itself accounts for 85% of net employment land in the sub-region (of which just over one-third is located at Brimsdown Industrial Area). Barnet and Haringey have no single employment areas of over 15ha.

• An estimated 4.9 million m2 of employment floorspace has been identified in North London, the vast majority (55%) located in Enfield. Whilst

• Second, a significant proportion of employment Haringey and Waltham Forest each accounted for land in the North London is categorised as ‘vacant’, ‘derelict’ or ‘unknown’. This equates to 137ha of land from a gross total employment land figure of 742ha (18%). This percentage is above

20the level identified as vacant in the RTP Industrial and Warehousing Land in London, (RTP et al, 2004)


19% of floorspace stock, Barnet only accounted for 7% (340,000 m2).

Table 6.2.While large falls are forecast in Barnet and Waltham Forest, demand would seem to be

• In terms of the age and condition of employment buildings in North London, the survey indicates

consolidating towards Enfield as a location, with an increase demand of 14ha for the period.

that the stock is generally good with vast majority of buildings being identified as ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ (85%) and almost two thirds having an estimated age of less than 30 years.

• In terms of site specific constraints, only isolated problems were identified which did not reflect a widespread problem in the sub-region. For example only a limited number of sites had ‘Poor HGV Access’ arrangements (largely located within Enfield and Haringey) and one tenth of employment sites were found to have ‘No Parking On or Adjacent to the Site’.

Table 6.2 Land Demand Scenarios by Borough Land

requirements in 2016 (ha)

Change 2001

2016 (ha)

Change 2005

2016 (ha)

Barnet 199 -51 -9

Enfield 316 14 26

Haringey 159 -14 -12

Waltham Forest 111 -43 -17

North London 786 -95 -12

6.3 Structural Change in Employment Land Demand

With regards to demand, the forecasts for employment land are subject to a high level of sensitivity, reliant as they are on employment forecasting data, employment density and plot ratios.

Under our base NLELS employment demand scenario the forecast employment land demand in 2016 ranges between 705ha and 868ha. This represents a fall in demand between 2001-2016 of between 87ha and 104ha. Taking the mid-point, we estimate that employment land demand in 2016 will be 786ha, a fall of 95ha in the period 2001-2016. The distribution of this fall in demand across each Borough is shown in

Source: PACEC

6.4 ‘Land Requirement’ for North London

The context for the NLELS study has always been the RTP study published in August 2004 which from a strategic perspective established the ‘land requirement’ for London and its component sub-regions. This analysis assumed that ‘at any point in time, the planned supply and market demand for industrial/warehousing land will be in balance if supply equals the demand for occupied land, plus margins of vacant land and vacant floorspace to allow for smooth operation of the market’.

It also notes that policy needs to focus on change in supply and demand over the relevant planning period


with this change referred to as the ‘land requirement’ (or land release if negative). In this respect the desired change in planned supply equals structural change in demand, plus required change in vacant land, plus required change in vacant floorspace, plus intensification.

The NLELS study provides a more detailed assessment of this potential ‘land requirement’ using locally generated supply and demand information.

As noted in Section 6.3 the change in demand for employment land is forecast to be between 87ha and 104ha for the period 2001-2016. However, it also shows that in the period 2005-2016 demand only falls by around 12ha and implies that a relatively modest adjustment to the supply of employment land is required for this period. The suggestion from this is that the adjustment to supply should have already occurred to provide the current position of balance

With regards to vacant land and floorspace, there needs to be a natural level of vacant land to facilitate the effective operation of the market. Within North London the site survey identified that 95.8ha of industrial/warehousing land is vacant21, which is higher than the generally considered natural rate of around 10%. Reducing vacant land to 10% of existing net industrial/warehousing stock (approximately 60ha)

21 ‘Vacant land’ as defined by the survey includes vacant/derelict sites and sites containing vacant/derelict floorspace.

indicates a potential vacant land release of 36ha by 2016.

Intensification has been considered through the sensitivity in terms of employment density and plot ratios but is not translated into considerations on planned supply.

The conclusion is that an employment land release in the region of 123ha to 140ha (2001-2016) is possible without constraining the sub-regional market. However, the analysis estimates that in the period 2005-2016 the potential land release required is significantly lower at around 50ha, on the basis that the most significant structural change in the industrial/warehousing sectors has already taken place.

6.4.1 Land Requirement by BoroughThe land requirement will vary across the four Boroughs, as shown in Tables 6.3 and 6.4 which summarise the land requirements for the periods 20012016 and 2005-2016.

In the former period, the greatest land release potential falls in the Borough’s of Barnet and Waltham Forest, where most potential release is associated with demand change. Indeed, the location of vacant/derelict land across the sub-region indicates that the level of vacant land in all but Enfield Borough approximates to a natural level of around 10% and therefore provides limited release potential. Enfield, while there is currently a surplus of vacant/derelict land allowing for release of up to 32ha, this land stock can be used to


accommodate increased employment demand over the on the basis that structural demand change has already period, thus reducing the release potential. As noted occurred in the period to 2005. above, the release in 2005-2016 is significantly reduced

Table 6.3 North London Land Requirements, 2001-2016 North London


(ha)

Change in Structural Demand -87 to -104 -46 to -57 +12 to +16 -13 to -15 -39 to -48

Change in Vacant Land required -36 - -32 -1ha -3

Total Land Requirement 2001-2016 -123 to -140 -46 to -57 -16 to -20 -14 to -16 -42 to -51 Source: PACEC

Table 6.4 North London Land Requirements, 2005-2016 North London


(ha)

Change in Structural Demand -12 -8 to -10 +23 to +29 -11 to -13 -15 to -19

Change in Vacant Land -36 - -32 -1 -3

Total Land Requirement 2005-2016 -50 -8 to -10 -3 to -9 -12 to -14 -18 to -22 Source: PACEC


PART 2: BOROUGH LEVEL ANALYSIS


7 Barnet 7.1 Introduction

Barnet is a generally diverse borough extending out to the metropolitan greenbelt on the northern side of London and extending southwards to inside the A406 North Circular Road. Whilst the borough does not directly abut the M25 it is within a few miles of junction 24. The A1 Barnet bypass runs through the west of the borough providing connection to the M1 and A41 which, combined with the A406 North Circular Road, offer excellent accessibility into Central London and the West End.

There are various “regional” town centre areas throughout the borough, including Chipping Barnet, North Finchley, Edgware and Golders Green. However the main retail focus is understandably the Brent Cross regional shopping centre, in the south of the borough. In terms of road access, the borough has certainly benefited from London wide improvements and infrastructure, including the upgrading of the A406 North Circular Road and of course accessibility to the M25 orbital motorway. The M1, A1 and A41 corridor provides excellent movement through the borough on a north south basis and is an undoubted benefit to commercial occupiers.

Public transport in Barnet, aside from bus routes, tends to be focused to the east and west sides and is a mix of over ground and underground services. High Barnet, Finchley Central, Edgware, Colindale and others are

served by the Northern line. Over ground services run through the borough (including Thames Link) with various stops and some underground interconnections, terminating at London’s Kings Cross and Moorgate.

7.2 Current Market Context

7.2.1 Industrial Market Barnet has a generally small and very fragmented industrial base with a scattering of sites across the borough. As a result while the following areas could not be identified as sub-areas they have been identified for their interest:

• New Southgate – Home to two significant employment clusters at Brunswick Park and Brunswick Industrial Park. Brunswick Park is believed to be in the ownership of investor / developer builder and now partially let to Barnet College. While some of the office buildings are occupied, it is not anticipated that office demand could provide full take up of this area. Brunswick Industrial Park is an early 1980s scheme that is well occupied despite having access only from residential areas.

• Mill Hill Area – This includes medium sized industrial estates at Bittacy Business Centre, Mill Hill East and Mill Hill Industrial Estate, close to Mill Hill Broadway

• Colindale – Three almost adjacent clusters that provide highly variable stock


• The Hyde, Hendon – Two separate clusters, including the significant Garrick Industrial Estate which is relatively modern and well let

• Staples Corner – Directly opposite Brent Cross Shopping Centre, a historic industrial area but now becoming obsolete in parts, some areas having now reverted to the higher value retail and leisure use.

The future of Brunswick Park (Nortel) is not known at the current time. At Brunswick Industrial Park we are aware that the one significant vacant building is likely to be refurbished and split into three smaller units. Other key industrial locations which still have relatively modern stock, including Finchley Industrial Centre, Bittacy Business Centre, Garrick Industrial Estate and Lancaster Road Trading Estate are all relatively well occupied and thus imminent redevelopment is unlikely.

7.2.2 Commercial Market In recent years the demand for office space in the north eastern sector of London has not been particularly strong, witnessed by the fact there has been no speculative office development for perhaps 15 years. In economic terms the local market place is not prepared to pay rent which is adequate to finance the build cost of new offices. The perceived notion that Central London based companies would out-source their “back room” operation to cheap fringe locations has not materialised to any great extent and thus office demand in the borough has tended to come almost entirely from companies who are historically located or service companies such as solicitors, accountants and local authorities.

The situation of office buildings throughout the borough is so fragmented but the following areas are highlighted:

• Areas such as the A1000 through Whetstone and Finchley have a variety of detached office buildings, of varying ages generally 1960s/1970s. Similar along the A5 around Hendon a similar situation occurs

• The key “town centres” have their usual small office content, either in bespoke buildings or above shops. The only clearly identified office “part” would be Brunswick Park, the former Nortel premises as discussed above.

• Whilst demand does exist from local occupiers we cannot perceive that in the near future any speculative office development will be forthcoming.

7.2.3 Housing Market Whilst the borough in parts can feel highly urban, overall mapping shows that Barnet has a very green “core”, extending in parts to the boundary of the Metropolitan green-belt. Housing stock is entirely mixed, extending from the low density, extremely high value, properties around High Barnet, into the southern boundary and areas such as Cricklewood with smaller and lower value properties. Recent, and relatively significant, residential schemes in the borough would include over 150 flats above the North Finchley Arts Centre; around 300 units built on the sites of the Professional Development Unit Finchley, Manor House Hospital, Ashmole School and St Stephen’s Hospital; and a total of over 500 units at the former Friern Barnet


Hospital. Major areas for housing regeneration in the borough have been identified at Stonegrove, Dollis Valley, Colindale, West Hendon and Cricklewood, and Mill Hill and will accommodate around 18,000 new homes over the next 5 to 15 years.

7.3 Employment Land Supply

This review of employment land supply within Barnet is drawn from our field survey of identified employment land clusters and sites within the Borough. The results of this review are outlined below and cover the areas of existing land supply and usage, site area and floorspace distributions, along with site quality and other issues.

7.3.1 Barnet Revised Deposit Draft UDP, 2001 Local policy within the Deposit Draft UDP aims to protect, provide and consolidate appropriate employment sites to meet the needs of the industrial, employment and business communities in the borough. Much of the borough’s employment is located within town centres and these form a focus for economic development and employment strategy in the area. In addition the Cricklewood railway lands and the borough’s designated employment land provide additional important employment opportunities (the former presenting the major opportunity for regeneration in the borough).

The Draft UDP provides a list of 18 Primary Industrial Sites and Business Parks in Barnet. Within this list is the Northern Telecom site, identified in the London Plan as an Industrial Business Park suitable for research

and development / hi-tech and light industrial (B1b and B1c uses). No other employment areas are identified in the Plan. Specific policies relevant to the NLELS study include:

• EMP1 – protecting the 18 primary industrial sites and business parks from redevelopment for alternative uses. Outside of these sites redevelopment of existing employment locations is possible where there is no prospect of industrial development (EMP2).

• EMP4 – on the Northern Telecom site preference is given to proposals that cater for business, including offices, light industry and hi-tech activities.

• EMP5 – restricts warehousing development to appropriate locations on suitable transport routes and/or railway lines.

• EMP6 and EMP7 – stipulates that in terms of office accommodation preference is given to reuse or redevelopment of existing stock. Only where redevelopment is unrealistic will alternative uses be considered.

7.3.2 Amount of Employment LandA total of 20 employment land clusters were identified within Barnet, predominately located along the M1 Corridor in the west and the East Coast Main Line Corridor in the east of the Borough, with a number of sites close to High Barnet as shown on the Barnet A1 Existing Land Use Map. A summary of the key Barnet employment land cluster information is provided in Table 7.1 with the overall results being:


Table 7.1 Barnet Employment Land Clusters

Cluster Identifier and Name Number of Sites Gross Employment Land (ha)


Net Employment Land Percentage (%)

BA001 – Barnet Trading Estate 20 2.0 1.9 3.5 BA002 – Falkland Road Industrial Estate 10 0.6 0.6 1.0 BA003 – Bittacy Business Centre 14 4.8 4.8 8.6 BA004 / BA005 / BA012 – Brent Terrace / Finchley Industrial Estate

37 19.4 18.6 33.4

BA006 – Brunswick Industrial Park 12 4.0 3.6 6.4 BA009 / BA010 / BA011 – Collindale Primary Employment Area

22 2.7 2.6 4.7

BA013 – Edgware Forum Side 11 1.3 1.3 2.3 BA014 – Finchley Industrial Estate 8 0.9 0.9 1.7 BA015 – Garrick Industrial Estate 17 5.9 5.5 10.0 BA017 – The Hyde Industrial Estate 20 0.7 0.7 1.3 BA018 – Lancaster Road Industrial Estate 14 1.4 1.3 2.4 BA019 – Mill Hill Industrial Estate 13 1.7 1.7 3.0 BA020 – Northern Telecoms Works 4 12.2 8.5 15.3 BA021 – Pricklers Hill 11 0.5 0.5 0.9 BA022 – Queens Road Industrial Estate 12 1.0 0.9 1.7 BA023 – Oakleigh Road South 3 2.1 2.1 3.9

Total 228 61.3 55.7 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005) Note: Clusters BA007, BA008 and BA016 have been deleted as they have no employment land (i.e. they have already been converted to either housing or offices)


• A total of 20 employment land clusters were identified within Barnet containing 228 individual employment sites

• The gross employment land included in these clusters was 61ha, which equates to around 0.7% of the Borough

• Once all of the public roads and open space has been removed from the data then Barnet is left with approximately 56ha of net employment land (about 91% of the area surveyed in the Borough)

7.3.3 Net Employment Land in Industrial/Warehousing UseThe existing land uses within Barnet have been assessed according to the NLELS Land Use Definition outlined in Section 4. This has resulted in the information presented in Table 7.2 which shows that:

• 200 employment sites were identified to be in industrial/warehousing uses within Barnet (88% of the total identified sites) and these cover an area of 38ha (68% of the net employment area).

• The top three land use categories by site area are wholesale, warehousing, and public administration which combined account for 43% of employment site land area (16ha) and 31% of employment sites (62 sites)

• In comparison the bottom three land use categories by site area are food and tobacco, textile, and post and communications. Combined these categories account for less than 1ha of employment site land area (1%) and 4 employment sites (2%).

• A very small number of sites (5 sites covering an area of 2ha) were identified as being multi use. Again these typically consisted of older multistorey buildings with different uses on separate floors.

• No construction activity was identified during the days that the survey work was being undertaken

• Around 13% of the employment site area (equating to 33 employment sites and 5ha) was either vacant or derelict.

• It is also expected that the proportion of vacant or derelict sites within Barnet is higher than this as some of the sites identified as unknown (35 employment sites and 4ha of employment site land) are also likely to be either vacant or derelict.

7.3.4 Area and Floorspace AnalysisThe area and floorspace analysis has focused on the distribution of net cluster and site areas across Barnet, along with the site floorspace distribution.

Net Cluster Area Distribution The results of this assessment for Barnet are presented in Table 7.3 while the key findings are:

� The vast majority of Barnet employment land is located within 8 intermediate sized employment land clusters (40% of the identified clusters) that range in size from 2 to 15ha.

� The remaining Barnet clusters are all considered to be small (0 to 2ha in size) and while they account for 60% of clusters they only account for 23% of the net Barnet employment area.


Table 7.2 Existing Barnet Employment Land Use (NLELS Land Use Definition)





(%)

Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 Textile (SIC 18-19) 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) - - - -Printing (SIC 22) 11 5.5 0.9 2.4 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 3 1.5 0.6 1.5 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 8 4.0 0.8 2.2 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 3 1.5 3.7 9.9 Construction (SIC 45) 6 3.0 0.5 1.4 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 22 11.0 1.6 4.3 Wholesale (SIC 51) 24 12.0 3.9 10.3 Warehousing (SIC 63) 33 16.5 7.8 20.7 Transport (SIC 62) 8 4.0 2.5 6.6 Utilities (SIC 40-41) - - - -Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) - - - -Post and Communications (SIC 64) 2 1.0 0.3 0.7 Public Administration (SIC 75) 5 2.5 4.3 11.5 Multi Use 5 2.5 1.8 4.8 Under Construction - - - -Vacant or Derelict 33 16.5 4.5 12.0 Unknown 35 17.5 4.4 11.8

Total 200 100.0 37.6 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


Table 7.3 Barnet Cluster Area Distributions Net Cluster Employment Land (ha)

Number of Employment Clusters

Percentage of Clusters (%)


Percentage Net Employment Land (%)

0.0-1.0 7 35.0 4.8 8.6 1.1-2.0 5 25.0 7.7 13.9 2.1-5.0 4 20.0 13.3 23.9 5.1-15.0 4 20.0 29.9 53.6 15.1+ - - - -

Total Clusters / Areas 20 100.0 55.7 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Net Site Area Distribution the net area covered by all Barnet employment Table 7.4 provides information on the distribution of net sites. employment sites areas across Barnet. Key results that should be taken from this table include: Site Floorspace Distribution

The site floorspace distribution within Barnet is outlined • A reasonable spectrum of employment land sites in Table 7.5 with the key findings including:

are found within Barnet from very small (less than 250m2) through to very large (60,000m2 plus) � Around 340,000m2 of employment floorspace has

• The majority of sites are small to medium with 52% of sites being found within the range of 1 to 1,000m2. It should be noted however that these sites cover only 10% of the net Barnet employment site area or just over 50,000m2 (5ha).

been identified within Barnet � Just over 15% of the identified employment sites

have no building currently located upon them (again this is likely to include a fair number of the vacant or derelict sites)

• The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for 39% of sites and around 31% of the net Barnet employment site area. This equates to just under 175,000m2 (17ha).

� Small buildings of between 1 and 250m2 in size are located on approximately 23% of employment sites. In addition almost 45% of employment sites have small to medium sized buildings in a range of sizes

• Finally the top 9% of sites cover just under between 251 and 1,500m2. 330,000m2 (33ha). This equates to around 59% of


Table 7.4 Barnet Net Site Area Distributions Net Employment Area (m2)

Number of Employment Sites Percentage of Sites (%) Net Employment Area

(m2) Percentage

Employment Area (%) 1-250 36 15.8 6,293 1.1 251-500 37 16.2 14,171 2.5 501-1,000 46 20.2 33,197 6.0 1,001-1,500 38 16.7 44,940 8.1 1,501-3,000 36 15.8 74,395 13.4 3,001-5,000 14 6.1 54,608 9.8 5,001-10,000 12 5.3 80,236 14.4 10,001-20,000 4 1.8 63,801 11.5 20,000+ 5 2.2 184,910 33.2

Total Sites / Areas 228 100.0 556,552 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Table 7.5 Barnet Site Floorspace Distributions Site Floorspace Area (m2)

Number of Employment Sites Percentage of Sites (%) Building Floorspace

(m2) Percentage Available

Floorspace (%) Zero 35 15.4 - -1-250 53 23.2 6,519 1.9 251-500 30 13.2 11,828 3.5 501-1,000 54 23.7 38,630 11.4 1,001-1,500 18 7.9 22,031 6.5 1,501-3,000 16 7.0 34,290 10.1 3,001-5,000 10 4.4 37,968 11.2 5,001-10,000 7 3.1 45,024 13.3 10,001-20,000 3 1.3 39,469 11.6 20,000+ 2 0.9 103,696 30.5

Total Sites / Floorspace 228 100.0 339,454 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


� Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 11% of employment sites. While just over 5% of employment sites contain large to very large buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 79,000m2.

7.3.5 Site Quality and Other Issues A range of information on general site quality and other relevant issues was also collected during the Barnet employment land survey work. The key building age and condition information collected is presented within Table 7.6. While the building stock within Barnet is generally identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ a higher proportion of buildings have been identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case at the North London level.

Table 7.6 Barnet Building Age and Quality

7.4 Employment Land Demand

This section reviews the findings of the NLELS employment land demand forecast produced for Barnet. The GLA forecast of employment land demand is also shown for comparative purposes.

The borough level employment forecasts for industrial/warehousing uses produced by both the NLELS and GLA methods are presented in Table 7.7.

Overall the forecasts are broadly similar. Construction, Wholesale, and Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair are three sectors which show the greatest difference between the NLELS and GLA forecast in 2016 (differences of -1,547; 1,966 and 1,185 jobs respectively).


Age of Buildings Barnet


Good 2 - 26 60 2 90 39.5 Reasonable 6 11 22 22 2 63 27.6 Poor 3 9 1 7 - 20 8.8 Very Poor - 3 1 - - 4 1.7 Unknown 3 4 1 9 34 51 22.4

Total 14 27 51 98 38 228

Percentage (%) 6.1 11.8 22.4 43.0 16.7 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


Table 7.7 Barnet Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts, 2001-2016


2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 323 252 22.0 377 345 -8.4 Textile (SIC 18-19) 668 106 -84.1 779 145 -81.4 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 145 63 -56.6 169 86 -49.0 Printing (SIC 22) 1,253 806 -35.7 1,461 1,103 -24.5 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 418 864 106.7 487 1,182 142.6 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 1,613 863 -46.5 1,881 1,190 -36.7 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 365 30 -91.8 449 51 -88.6 Construction (SIC 45) 10,221 6,785 -33.6 11,106 5,238 -52.8 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 2,671 2,785 4.3 2,955 3,970 34.4 Wholesale (SIC 51) 6,883 4,666 -32.2 7,614 6,632 -12.9 Warehousing (SIC 63) 365 447 22.5 422 431 2.1 Transport (SIC 60-62) 2,965 3,842 29.6 3,430 3,714 8.3 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 213 206 -3.3 299 383 28.1 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 494 1,062 115.0 535 1,208 125.9 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 3,346 2,026 -39.5 3,871 1,957 -49.5

Total 31,943 24,803 -22.4 35,835 27,635 -22.9 Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003, GLA 2005

The employment densities and plot ratios discussed in Section 5 have been used to convert jobs to floorspace and then a plot ratio to convert floorspace to Net

Employment Land. The employment land forecasts for Barnet to 2016 are presented in Table 7.8 and 7.9 below.


Table 7.8 Barnet Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)


Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 276 229 226 220 220 311 261 262 254 248

Mid-Range 251 208 205 199 199 282 237 238 230 225 Source: PACEC

Table 7.9 Change in Barnet Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)







Mid-Range -51 -9 -57 -12 Source: PACEC

7.5 Cluster Appraisals been the ranking of each cluster, compared to other Barnet and North London clusters, which is

• The employment clusters within Barnet have been presented in Table 7.10. appraised according to the criteria set out in Section 2. The key outcome of this appraisal has


Table 7.10 Barnet Cluster Appraisal Results

Assessment Score Assessment Ranking

UDP Designation Comments1Cluster Number and Name

Gro

up 1

Gro

up 2

Gro

up 3

Gro

up 4

Gro

up 5

Tota

l

With

inB

arne

t

With

in N

orth

Lo

ndon

BA001 – Barnet Trading Estate

58 46 41 23 17 185 16 94 Primary Industrial Site with planning brief for mixed use development (employment and residential) approved in 2000

BA002 – Falkland Road Industrial Estate

93 67 38 30 10 238 12 90 Primary Industrial Site

BA003 – Bittacy Business Centre


BA004 / BA005 / BA012 – Brent Terrace / Finchley Industrial Estate

58 67 60 56 33 275 9 85 Not designated

BA006 – Brunswick Industrial Park

105 92 60 38 33 328 2 26 Primary Industrial SIte

BA009 / BA010 / BA011 – Collindale Primary Employment Area


BA013 – Edgware Forum Side

48 42 64 60 20 232 14 92 UDP proposal for site is mixed use development including town centre, retail, housing, leisure, recreation and tourism

BA014 – Finchley Industrial Estate


BA015 – Garrick Industrial Estate


BA017 – The Hyde Industrial Estate


BA018 – Lancaster Road Industrial Estate



Cluster Number and Name


UDP Designation Comments1

Gro

up 1

Gro

up 2

Gro

up 3

Gro

up 4

Gro

up 5

Tota

l

With

inB

arne

t

With

in N

orth

Lo

ndon

BA019 – Mill Hill Industrial Estate


BA020 – Northern Telecoms Works

105 96 38 56 30 325 3 32 Industrial Business Park with planning brief for limited mixed use development approved 2006

BA021 – Pricklers Hill 93 42 49 38 10 231 15 93 Primary Industrial Site

BA022 – Queens Road 105 75 15 23 17 234 13 91 Primary Industrial Site

BA023 – Oakleigh Road South

82 71 41 45 33 272 10 86 Not allocated within the UDP, but protected for employment use through Policy EMP2. Planning brief for residential development on part of the site approved 2006.

Sources: Halcrow (Assessment scores and ranking), LBB (UDP Designation Comments) Note: 1. These are the UDP designations / information supplied by LBB. For further information on these designations, and confirmation that there have not

been subsequent changes, the relevant LBB UDP / Local Development Framework documents should be consulted.


8 Enfield 8.1 Introduction

Enfield is the northern most district in North London, directly abutting the M25 (specifically junctions 25 to 24) and bisected by the A10 which runs between the M25 and the A406 North Circular Road to the south. Within North London, Enfield has the largest commercial/industrial centre, mainly due to Brimsdown which is believed to be the second largest concentration of industrial buildings outside of Park Royal in West London.

Enfield Town is perhaps the main focus of the borough with its wide range of shopping facilities and civic offices. However, retail and leisure facilities are spread throughout the borough, including the medium sized retail element at Edmonton Green. In terms of road access, the borough has benefited from major London wide improvement and infrastructure, specifically the M25 orbital motorway and the upgrading of the North Circular Road which, when combined with the established A10 dual carriageway allows movement north south through the borough into central London or via the motorway network to all major routes. The borough is also relatively accessible to the major airports of Luton, Stansted and eastwards towards the ports of Tilbury, Felixstowe and Harwich.

Aside from numerous bus routes, the LBE public transport system is focused around over-ground railway although there are Piccadilly Line stations to the north

west of the borough in Oakwood, Cockfosters and Southgate. Over-ground services run from Enfield Town, Enfield Chase and Enfield Lock stations, passing through the borough with various other stops terminating at Moorgate and Liverpool Street but with London transport underground service connections at points on the inward journey.


8.2.1 Industrial Market Given the size of Enfield as a borough and the sheer quantity of industrial stock, we perceive the component parts of the Enfield industrial/warehouse market is in three specific sub-markets:

• Enfield (A10/Great Cambridge Road) – this area, which includes Great Cambridge Road and areas off Southbury Road and Lincoln Road, is home to much of the historic manufacturing land use which has shifted in the last ten to fifteen years towards warehouse and distribution, and retail warehousing. A number of the redundant 1930s industrial buildings along the A10 have in recent years been redeveloped and have evolved into a “cluster” of main car dealerships. Similarly the area south of the British Car Auction (originally Weston Aerospace) has been developed into retail warehousing. Adjacent to this are Baird Road and Crown Road where a significant number of industrial occupiers still remain. This area has


begun to redevelop through market forces with older buildings being demolished and replaced by newer industrial “schemes”. Further south on the A10, significant re-development has recently taken place and a new BMW main dealership showroom had been created. The GE Lighting premises at the junction of Lincoln Road/A10 is still occupied and, whilst dated stock, still serves an employment purpose. Adjacent is the 1980s Great Cambridge Estate with the recent addition of A10 Exchange by Brixton Plc, the first new small/medium unit industrial scheme in LBE for some six or more years.

• Brimsdown – As previously mentioned, a significant industrial holding which has seen many road improvements over the last decade. The area is home to numerous individual industrial estates and stand alone buildings including Trafalgar Business Centre, Delta Park, Arena Point, The Dencora Centre and Sovereign Business Centre. Still a popular industrial location generally but congestion is causing some concern.

• Edmonton – Located to the south of the borough and benefiting from good road links to the A406 North Circular Road, the Edmonton area is perceived by both the occupier and development sector as a strong industrial/warehouse location. This is reflected by significant development activity at the current time which (ignoring the recent construction of Ikea), includes the sale of the former BOC site fronting the A406 (14 acres), the former Parker Knoll premises (approximately 4 acres). Both these redevelopments will significantly enhance the industrial/commercial

sector alongside the A406 in Edmonton and over the course of time this will undoubtedly incorporate areas such as Stonehills Business Centre, Hastingwood and Lee Valley Industrial Estates.

The property crash of the early 1990s effectively called a halt to all speculative commercial development in the borough and the first new industrial buildings developed (without pre-lets or pre-sales) was circa 1997. Subsequent to that there have only been a handful of further “schemes” although a number of opportunities are now beginning to arise following developers purchase of sites or buildings. Of specific note is the Brixton Plc scheme at A10 Exchange, effectively an extension of their existing property holding at Great Cambridge Estate, Lincoln Road. This has just been completed on a totally speculative basis and extends to some 96,000 sq ft in units from 2,500 sq ft. Early lettings show that there is a demand from occupiers for quality space and that rents necessary to undertake such development are achievable with effort.

To our knowledge, and excluding the significant sites of the former BOC company in Edmonton and the former ESAB premises in north Enfield, there is potentially in the order of 450,000 sq ft of new small and medium sized warehouse/industrial accommodation in the planning pipeline or under construction.

8.2.2 Commercial Market For historic reasons the North Eastern sector of London has not seen a huge demand for office space in the last fifteen years, with the demand for central London


focusing towards the west London area. Thus office demand in the borough has tended to come almost entirely from companies who are historically situated in this area and local service companies such a solicitors, accountants plus the usual local authorities. Critically, occupier demand has not led to the strengthening of rent which makes office development unviable in this borough.

Within Enfield there are very few locations which could be defined as office “zones”. At Innova Park, Mollison Avenue, Enfield, is the only recently built office stock. Innova House, constructed approximately five years ago is part of a joint venture between Scarborough Plc and LBE totalling some 30,000 sq ft and is approximately 75% occupied. On the same site are two buildings originally known as BIC1 and BIC2 which failed as innovation centres and are now let as workshops/small business units. The remainder of the land surrounding Innova House/BIC is zoned for the future Science Park/office development but this is unlikely to proceed speculatively given the availability of space within Innova House.

Within Enfield Town itself are a number of individual multi storey office buildings at River Front and Southbury Road. These are of mixed age varying from 1960s construction up to mid 1980s, the majority of which would not meet the specification required for Grade A office occupiers. A majority of these buildings were originally occupied by single companies as head office or similar but due to change in business structures across the region most of the offices in this area are now multi-let on a floor or part floor basis.

8.2.3 Housing Market Understandably, given that it is a London conurbation edged by the Metropolitan greenbelt, and more recently by the M25, the London Borough of Enfield would undoubtedly be considered a densely populated residential area, albeit it does benefit from significant pockets of green open space. Due to its density there have been few significant residential schemes created. The exceptions would be Enfield Island Village, near Enfield Lock to the north of the borough and Highlands Village in Winchmore Hill. The former was created over a number of years on land formerly part of the Royal Ordnance site which is a mix of private and social housing. Highlands Village is again a mix of private and social housing (incorporating a small Sainsburys supermarket and the Village Hall). This development was a former hospital site and incorporates some converted buildings and a significant element of new build.

To the south of the borough, recent schemes have included the Social Housing Development on the former MK premises at Edmonton and a similar scheme in Montagu Road Edmonton.


This review on the existing Enfield employment land supply is largely drawn from our field survey of every identified employment land clusters and sites within the Borough (as was the case for Barnet). The results of this review are outlined covering the areas of existing


land supply and usage, site area and floorspace distributions, and site quality and other issues.

8.3.1 Enfield Adopted UDP, 1994 and Interim Amendments, 1999 Employment policy within the Adopted UDP aims to foster Enfield as a location for business (Policy (I) E1); retain and enhance areas that provide commercial, industrial and distribution employment (Policy (I) E2); retain and provide accommodation for small-scale developments (Policy (I) E3); and to facilitate the most efficient use of land within the employment generating areas (Policy (I) E4).

Overall the approach set out is to concentrate B1-B8 uses within identified Primary Industrial Areas, but give favourable consideration to proposals for the diversification or redevelopment of industrial and warehousing premises outside of these areas. Although the Adopted Plan identified the Primary Industrial Areas the Inspector questioned whether they could properly fulfil the role of accommodating industrial and business uses and recommended that an employment demand and supply study further assess provision.

This study culminated with in the employment land proposals contained within the UDP Interim Amendments 1999, which subdivides employment areas in to three categories:

• Prime Employment Areas comprising those areas containing large sites and good quality developments, well located to transport infrastructure and capable of providing a quality

business environment. The policy aim is to retain and enhance these areas, develop new areas to attract inward investment / relocations, and to restrict use to Classes B1-B8.

• Local Employment Areas comprising those areas catering more locally based businesses, are capable of providing a wide variety of sites and premises, and are reasonably well located to transport infrastructure. While policy is to resist change of use in these areas, favourable consideration could be given subject to wider sites / premises availability and the compatibility of use with existing employment uses.

• Other Employment Areas applying to all sites and premises within Use Classes B1-B8 situated outside of the above designations. Among these sites redevelopment for other uses would generally be considered by the council.

8.3.2 Amount of Employment Land25 employment land clusters were identified in Enfield, predominately located along the Lea Valley Corridor in the East of the Borough and immediately to the East of the A10 as shown on the Enfield A1 Existing Land Use Map. A summary of the key Enfield employment land cluster information is provided in Table 8.1. A total of 25 employment land clusters were identified within Enfield containing 807 individual employment sites. The gross employment land covered by these clusters was 404ha, which equates to around 4.9% of the Borough. Once all of the public roads and open space have been removed for the data then Enfield is left with approximately 359ha of net employment land (about 89% of the area surveyed within the Borough).


Table 8.1 Enfield Employment Land Clusters



Percentage of Net Employment Land (%)

EN001 – Chase Side Works 7 0.9 0.9 0.2 EN003 – Regents Avenue 9 1.8 1.8 0.5 EN004 – Oakthorpe Dairy 1 3.1 3.1 0.9 EN005 – New Southgate Industrial Estate 16 1.8 1.7 0.5 EN006 – Redburn Trading Estate 30 4.2 3.8 1.0 EN007 – Queensway 33 3.6 3.4 1.0 EN008 – Lea Valley Trading Estate 61 19.6 17.1 4.8 EN009 / EN014 / EN026 – Meridian Way Land / Glover Drive / Kimberly Road

7 23.2 23.2 6.5

EN010 – Montagu Industrial Estate / Kenninghall Estate / Railtrack Land

62 16.1 13.8 3.8

EN011 – Claverings Industrial Estate / Dominion Business Park / Horizon Business Centre

33 3.6 2.7 0.8

EN012 – Langhedge Lane Industrial Estate 7 0.7 0.7 0.2 EN013 – Commercial Road & N. Middlesex Estate 56 9.8 9.2 2.6 EN015 – Eley's Estate 77 27.3 24.5 6.8 EN016 – Innova Park 11 41.7 35.7 9.9 EN017 – Hertford Road / Mollison Avenue 2 10.9 10.9 3.0 EN018 – Meridian Business Park 17 21.1 18.9 5.3 EN019 – Aztec 406 Development Site 6 19.6 19.3 5.4 EN020 – Brimsdown Industrial Area 243 139.1 115.1 32.1 EN021 – Great Cambridge Industrial Estate 26 11.2 11.0 3.1 EN022 – Great Cambridge Road (Martinbridge) 15 7.0 7.0 2.0 EN023 – Great Cambridge Road 9 7.1 7.1 2.0 EN024 – Great Cambridge Road 59 25.5 23.4 6.5 EN025 – Alma Industrial Estate 20 5.2 4.6 1.3

Total 807 404.2 359.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005). Note: Cluster EN002 has been deleted as it has no employment land (i.e. it has already been converted to either housing or offices)


8.3.3 Net Employment Land in Industrial/Warehousing UseThe existing land uses within Enfield have been assessed using the NLELS Land Use Definition. This has resulted in the information presented in Table 8.2 which shows that:

• 717 industrial/warehousing employment sites were identified within Enfield (89% of the total identified sites) and cover 333ha (93% of the net employment area).

• The top three land use categories by site area are food and tobacco, wholesale, and warehousing which combined account for 41% of employment site land area (136ha) and 39% of employment sites (276 sites)

• In comparison the bottom three land use categories by site area are textile, wood and paper products, and printing. Combined these categories account for just 8ha of employment site land area (2%) and 54 employment sites (8%).

• Again a very small number of sites (11 sites covering an area of 3ha) were identified as being multi use which typically consist of older multistorey building with different users

• A total of 8 sites were found to be under construction covering an area of 6ha.

• Around 21% of the employment site area (65ha) was vacant/derelict. In addition, 14ha of employment site land (4%) was identified as unknown.

8.3.4 Area and Floorspace AnalysisThe area and floorspace analysis has focused on the distribution of net cluster and site areas across Enfield, along with the site floorspace distribution

Net Cluster Area Distribution The results of the Net Cluster Area assessment for Enfield are presented in Table 8.3. The key findings include:

� Just over two thirds of the Enfield employment land is located within 7 very large employment clusters (28% of the identified clusters) each of which is 15ha or larger. The Brimsdown Industrial Area is the largest of these and at 115h accounts of almost a third of the Enfield employment land area.

� At the other extreme Enfield also has a number of employment clusters (5 clusters) that are small with areas of between 0 and 2ha. These clusters account for 20% of the Enfield employment clusters but only 2% of the Enfield employment land (6ha).

� The majority of Enfield clusters are however of intermediate size (ranging from 2 to 15ha) and these account for 28% of the Enfield employment land (99ha)

Net Site Area Distribution Table 8.4 provides information on the distribution of net employment site areas across Enfield. Key results that should be taken from this table include:

� A good spectrum of employment land sites are found within Enfield from very small (less than 250m2) through to the very large (172,000m2 plus)


� Just under half (44%) of the Enfield sites identified � Finally the top 18% of sites cover just over are small to medium with areas up to 1,000m2. 2.7million m2 (272ha). This equates to around 76%

� The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of of the net area covered by all Enfield employment 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for 38% of sites and sites. around 20% of the net Enfield employment site area. This equates to just over 0.7million m2 (71ha).

Table 8.2 Existing Enfield Employment Land Use (NLELS Land Use Definition)





(%)

Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 30 4.2 24.7 7.4 Textile (SIC 18-19) 12 1.7 1.5 0.5 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 15 2.1 3.0 0.9 Printing (SIC 22) 27 3.8 3.0 0.9 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 12 1.7 9.5 2.9 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 49 6.8 18.6 5.6 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 15 2.1 8.7 2.6 Construction (SIC 45) 19 2.6 5.9 1.8 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 87 12.1 22.6 6.8 Wholesale (SIC 51) 135 18.8 42.2 12.7 Warehousing (SIC 63) 111 15.5 69.2 20.8 Transport (SIC 62) 7 1.0 5.0 1.5 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 8 1.1 17.3 5.2 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) 20 2.8 6.6 2.0 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 14 2.0 7.9 2.4 Public Administration (SIC 75) 1 0.1 0.2 -Multi Use 11 1.5 2.7 0.8 Under Construction 8 1.1 5.5 1.7 Vacant or Derelict 62 8.6 65.0 19.5 Unknown 74 10.3 14.2 4.2



Table 8.3 Enfield Cluster Area Distributions Net Cluster Employment Land (ha)





0.0-1.0 2 8.0 1.6 0.4 1.1-2.0 3 12.0 4.6 1.3 2.1-5.0 5 20.0 17.6 4.9 5.1-15.0 8 32.0 81.2 22.6 15.1+ 7 28.0 254.1 70.8


Table 8.4 Enfield Net Site Area Distributions Net Employment Area (m2)


(m2) Percentage

Employment Area (%) 1-250 83 10.3 13,006 0.4 251-500 130 16.1 47,687 1.3 501-1,000 139 17.2 102,348 2.8 1,001-1,500 95 11.8 118,964 3.3 1,501-3,000 140 17.3 302,688 8.4 3,001-5,000 75 9.3 290,557 8.1 5,001-10,000 65 8.1 474,984 13.2 10,001-20,000 47 5.8 660,981 18.4 20,000+ 33 4.1 1,582,516 44.0

Total Sites / Areas 807 100.0 3,593,731 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


Site Floorspace Distribution The site floorspace distribution within Enfield is

� Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 24% of

assessed in Table 8.5 and key findings outlined below. employment sites. While just over 7% of

� Just over 2.7 million m2 of employment floorspace employment sites contain large to very large buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 103,000m2 .

was identified within Enfield �

�

Around 9% of the identified employment sites have no building currently located on them. Again this is likely to include a fair number of vacant or derelict sites. Small buildings of between 1 and 250m2 in size are located on approximately 14% of employment sites. In addition around 40% of employment sites have small to medium sized building in a range of sizes between 251 and 1,500m2 .

8.3.5 Site Quality and Other Issues A range of information on general site quality and other relevant issues was also undertaken during the Enfield employment land survey work. The key information collected is presented within Table 8.6. While the building stock within Enfield is generally identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ a higher proportion of buildings have been identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case at the North London level.

Table 8.5 Enfield Site Floorspace Distributions Site Floorspace Area (m2)



Floorspace (%) Zero 74 9.2 - -1-250 109 13.5 17,628 0.6 251-500 106 13.1 39,670 1.4 501-1,000 135 16.7 96,301 3.5 1,001-1,500 82 10.2 103,305 3.8 1,501-3,000 115 14.3 242,457 8.8 3,001-5,000 81 10.0 312,776 11.4 5,001-10,000 59 7.3 421,991 15.4 10,001-20,000 23 2.9 318,730 11.6 20,000+ 23 2.9 1,189,435 43.4

Total Sites / Floorspace 807 100.0 2,742,291 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


Table 8.6 Enfield Building Age and Quality



This section reviews the findings of the NLELS employment land demand forecast produced for Enfield. The GLA forecast of employment land demand is also shown for comparative purposes.

The borough level employment forecasts for industrial/warehousing uses produced by both the NLELS and GLA methods are presented in Table 8.7.

The NLELS forecast indicates employment across the NLELS defined sectors in Enfield between 2001 and 2016 is quite static down -0.3%, which is markedly


Age of Buildings Enfield


Good - - 50 282 20 352 43.6 Reasonable - 23 167 102 16 308 38.2 Poor - 25 31 5 6 67 8.3 Very Poor - 1 - - 1 2 0.3 Unknown - - 5 5 68 98 9.6

Total - 49 253 394 111 807

Percentage (%) - 6.1 31.4 48.8 13.7 100.0

different to the GLA generated forecast which estimates a fall of around 19% or 8,000 jobs. The most significant difference is in the construction sector, but warehousing, and transport also grow faster under the NLELS forecast.

The employment densities and plot ratios discussed in Section 5 have been used to convert jobs to floorspace and then a plot ratio to convert floorspace to Net Employment Land. The employment land forecasts for Enfield to 2016 are presented in Table 8.8 and 8.9 below.


Table 8.7 Enfield Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts, 2001-2016


2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 1,681 1,469 -12.6 1,882 1,994 6.0 Textile (SIC 18-19) 683 140 -79.5 765 187 -75.6 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 302 169 -44.0 338 227 -32.7 Printing (SIC 22) 828 484 -41.5 927 658 -29.0 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 1,247 907 -27.3 1,396 1,227 -12.1 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 6,203 2,326 -62.5 6,944 3,156 -54.6 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 328 119 -63.7 395 193 -51.0 Construction (SIC 45) 9,156 11,307 23.5 8,694 5,820 -33.1 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 2,408 2,112 -12.3 2,543 2,343 -7.9 Wholesale (SIC 51) 6,132 6,027 -1.7 6,475 6,673 3.0 Warehousing (SIC 63) 1,128 2,647 134.7 988 1,627 64.6 Transport (SIC 60-62) 4,916 7,152 45.5 4,307 4,391 1.9 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 374 268 -28.3 1,614 561 -65.2 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 1,022 1,923 88.2 1,154 2,667 131.2 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 2,740 1,980 -27.7 2,401 1,209 -49.7


Table 8.8 Enfield Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)



Mid-range 303 290 293 308 316 315 292 291 277 268 Source: PACEC


Table 8.9 Change in Enfield Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)





Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 12 23 -43 -22

Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 16 29 -52 -26

Mid-range 14 26 -47 -24 Source: PACEC

8.5 Cluster Appraisals The key outcome of this appraisal has been the ranking of each cluster, compared to other Enfield and North

The employment clusters within Enfield have been London clusters, which is presented in Table 8.10. appraised according to the criteria set out in Section 2.

Table 8.10 Enfield Cluster Appraisal Results



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EN001 – Chase Side Works

128 54 38 38 13 271 23 87 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area

EN003 – Regents Avenue 117 67 56 26 23 289 22 74 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area

EN004 – Oakthorpe Dairy 128 92 38 15 30 303 21 61 Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area

EN005 – New Southgate Industrial Estate






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EN006 – Redburn Trading Estate


EN007 – Queensway 117 58 49 53 33 310 19 52 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area

EN008 – Lea Valley Trading Estate


EN009 / EN014 / EN026 – Meridian Way Land / Glover Drive / Kimberly Road

117 83 49 49 48 344 7 9 Meridian Way Land – Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area Glover Drive – Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area (Part) Kimberly Road – Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area

EN010 – Montagu Industrial Estate / Kenninghall Estate / Railtrack Lands

128 79 49 38 43 337 10 19 Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area

EN011 – Claverings Industrial Estate / Dominion Business Park / Horizon Business Centre


EN012 – Langhedge Lane Industrial Estate


EN013 – Commercial Road and North Middlesex Estate


EN015 – Eley's Estate 117 79 49 56 43 344 8 10 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area

EN016 – Innova Park 93 100 45 53 37 328 12 25 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area





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EN017 – Hertford Road / Mollison Avenue

105 96 56 49 37 343 9 11 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area

EN018 – Meridian Business Park


EN019 – Aztec 406 Development Site


EN020 – Brimsdown 128 88 49 53 40 357 2 3 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area

EN021 – Great Cambridge Industrial Estate


EN022 – Great Cambridge Road (Martinbridge Trading Estate)


EN023 – Great Cambridge Road


EN024 – Great Cambridge Road


EN025 – Alma Industrial Estate


Sources: Halcrow (Assessment scores and ranking), LBE (UDP Designation Comments) Note: 1. These are the UDP designations / information supplied by LBE. For further information on these designations, and confirmation that there have not

been subsequent changes, the relevant LBE UDP / Local Development Framework documents should be consulted.


9 Haringey 9.1 Introduction

Haringey could be described as sitting in the centre of North London. To the west of the borough is the famous Alexandra Palace and to the east “White Hart Lane” home of Tottenham Hotspur FC. Centrally located is Wood Green with its well known “Wood Green Shopping City”, a large undercover shopping “mall” together with a busy High Street and recent new leisure complex comprising restaurants and cinema. Throughout the remainder of the borough there are clusters of local shopping facilities together with numerous “ribbon” retail facilities along roads such as High Road, Tottenham and Green Lanes in Haringey.

Most recent data shows that Haringey has a population of some 240,000 people and the last UDP identified an estimated 88,000 dwellings. As is the case with other North London boroughs the area appears generally high density in terms of housing but from mapping there are obvious large areas of green and open space scattered across the area.

Road access through the borough is relatively congested. However the borough is highly accessible to Central London and the West End. Whilst the borough boundary falls just inside the A406 North Circular Road various main routes through the borough connect directly with this thereby giving easy access to the A41/M1 to the west and the M11/A13 to the east. Aside from the usual bus services, the borough is generally

well served by the railway network with stations in various parts of the borough and over ground services leading into London Liverpool Street and Kings Cross/Moorgate. There are also connections to the Victoria and Piccadilly underground lines.


9.2.1 Industrial Market Haringey has some of the oldest industrial and warehousing stock in the North London sub-region, despite recent market activity indicating that there exists a reasonable demand for small and medium sized industrial units in the borough (although such demand will undoubtedly begin to wane as the available stock becomes more and more obsolete).

Whilst some speculative construction has commenced in neighbouring boroughs over the last few years there are very few potential opportunities in Haringey for redevelopment on reasonably sized sites. As has been discussed elsewhere, the lack of single large occupiers means that there are not the opportunities for developers to purchase suitable land holdings for one off redevelopment and, where highly fragmented ownerships exist, it is not viable to buy in numerous holdings with a view to long term future development. It would appear that the “Haringey Heartlands” is potentially a case in point, namely mass regeneration (whether it be for residential or commercial) is perhaps


only feasible with some compulsory powers and the ability to hold and fund part of the site for many years.

There is likely to be some new small unit industrial development in the borough entirely on the “back” of residential scheme at Bounds Green and Coppetts Road whilst similar opportunities may arise with the redevelopment of a privately owned small site in the Garman Road Tottenham area. All of these are likely to be at least 12/18 months away from a completed product.

Significant areas of industrial / warehousing provision in the borough include:

• Garman Road / Brantwood Road / Leaside Road, Tottenham – Various buildings in Brantwood Road are of 1980s construction and well maintained whilst neighbouring stock varies greatly in age and type but much dating from the 1950s. Similarly the Garman Road area is occupied by high density old style industrial stock with limited car parking. Slightly to the east is Mowlem Trading Estate, a popular location of early 1980s industrial units that is adjacent to other industrial areas in other boroughs.

• Western Road / Coburg Road, Wood Green (also called Haringey Heartlands) – An old established industrial area, bounded by the gasworks and the railway line with access only from Mayes Road. The site is currently in fragmented ownership and comprises a wide variety of industrial buildings varying from turn of the century multi storey properties to four early 1980s estates.

• Bounds Green Industrial Estate – A cluster of older industrial stock, well located directly adjacent to the A406 North Circular Road.

• Tottenham Hale – Two clusters of industrial situated on either side of the A1055. To the west of the A1055 in Ashley Road there are a variety of established industrial occupiers, some of which are within multi storey dated buildings. Fronting the A1055 is the Lee Valley Techno Park and at the end of Ashley Road is a Haringey Civic Amenity station.

• Fountayne Road / Markfield Road, N17 – A fragmented cluster of industrial buildings which (with the exception of Fountayne Business Centre) is older stock, some dating to the turn of the last century. The vast majority of the area is fully occupied but much of the stock is unsuitable for the modern business environment.

• White Hart Lane, Tottenham – A cluster of two main buildings/estates, well accessed to the A10 Great Cambridge Road, just south of the North Circular. This includes St Georges Industrial Estate, a well maintained and managed 1980s scheme which is well occupied. Adjacent occupiers include Cash and Carry and a large distributor.

9.2.2 Commercial Market Haringey has never been perceived as a key office location, in part due to the lack of available development land but in the main due to its very proximity to the centre of London with its hugely established business focus. Therefore office demand in Haringey comes almost entirely from companies


historically situated in the area, or businesses whose clear aim is to provide a service within the borough or its close proximity. Also, in line with all boroughs of this density, there is a relatively large quantity of space occupied by local authority and ancillary users.

Therefore there is almost no area in the borough which one could describe as an “office centre” save for perhaps High Road Wood Green, the remainder being scattered throughout the borough or entirely ancillary to industrial/warehouse users. The civic offices are focused around High Road Wood Green particularly at the junction with Lordship Lane, although even this occupation is somewhat fragmented. Demand is poor, rents corresponding are low even in comparison with neighbouring boroughs and it is highly unlikely that any speculative office development on any scale will take place in the near future.

9.2.3 Housing Market As a major London conurbation, bounded on all sides by boroughs of a similar type, Haringey in the main could be considered a densely populated residential area, notwithstanding the established and clearly defined green areas. Due to its density there have been very few significant residential schemes created in recent years. However, some medium sized residential developments have taken place (or are currently underway) such as at the ex Post Office depot at Milton Road/Turnpike Lane, and similar at the junction of Hornsey Road/Turnpike Lane, the Coliseum in Green Lanes, Wood Green and with significant development currently underway at Hornsey (known as the “New River”).


This review on the existing supply of employment land within Haringey is largely drawn from our field survey of every identified employment land clusters and sites within the Borough (as was the case for Barnet and Enfield). The results of this review are outlined covering below and cover the areas of existing land supply and usage, site area and floorspace distributions, along with site quality and other issues.

9.3.1 Haringey Revised Deposit Consultation Draft UDP, 2004 The guiding employment policy in the Borough of Haringey is that there should be quality land, premise and transport links to enable businesses to develop, expand and consolidate within the borough. Within this context there is a preference to protect and enhance the Borough’s employment land allocations for B-class uses. The current draft of the UDP presents a hierarchy of employment land in the borough consisting of:

• Strategic Employment Locations – Defined in the London Plan as sites for industry, business and warehousing, there are two areas – Wood Green (part) and Tottenham Hale and Central Leaside Business Area (North Tottenham DEA13).

• Industrial Locations – Well established industrial areas to be retained for B-class employment uses. There are 14 Industrial locations named and include the key industrial estates in the borough

• Employment Locations – Four wider areas with a more flexible employment focus beyond B-class.


• Regeneration Areas – Areas predominantly in industrial and warehousing use which are in the Haringey Heartlands area of intensification and Tottenham International area of opportunity.

Key employment policies relevant to industrial and warehousing uses include the aim to protect and enhance the Borough’s Industrial Locations and Employment Locations for appropriate uses (policies EMP1 and EMP2); and the need to fully justify the redevelopment or change of use of land and buildings in employment generating uses (EMP3). However, it is felt that this would be inappropriate within the Borough’s designated Industrial Locations.

9.3.2 Amount of Employment LandA total of 25 employment land clusters were identified within Haringey, predominately located along the Lea Valley Corridor in the East and the East Coast Main Line Corridor in the West of the Borough as shown on the Haringey A1 Existing Land Use Map. A summary of the key Haringey land cluster information is provided in Table 9.1 with the key overall results being:

• A total of 25 employment land clusters were identified within Haringey containing 715 individual employment sites

• The gross employment land covered by these clusters was 133ha, which equates to around 4.5% of the Borough

• Once all of the public roads and open space has been removed from the data then Haringey is left with approximately 126ha of net employment land

(about 94% of the area surveyed within the Borough)

9.3.3 Net Employment Land in Industrial/Warehousing UseThe existing land uses within Haringey have been assessed according to the NLELS Land Use Definition. This has resulted in the information presented in Table 9.2 which shows that:

• 583 employment sites in industrial/warehousing uses were identified within Haringey (82% of the total identified sites) and these cover an area of 104ha (86% of the net employment area).

• The top three land use categories by site area are wholesale, warehousing, and transport and combined (SIC 51, 62 and 63) account for 42% of employment land area (43ha) and 36% of employment sites (208 sites)

• In comparison the bottom three land use categories are wood and paper products, renting of machinery and equipment, and public administration (SIC 20-21, 71.1-71.3, and 75). Combined these activities account for just 2ha of employment site land area (2%) and 16 employment sites (3%).

• Again a small number of sites (16 sites covering an area of 4ha) were identified as being multi use. These sites typically consisted of older multistorey buildings with different uses on separate floors.

• Only two sites were found to be under construction covering an area of less than 1ha.


Table 9.1 Haringey Employment Land Clusters



Percentage of Net Borough Employment

Land (%)

HA001 – Ashfield Road / Crusader Industrial Estate 18 2.5 2.5 2.1 HA002 – Vale Road / Tewkesbury Road 37 6.9 6.4 5.3 HA003 – Cranford Way 17 7.2 7.2 6.0 HA004 – Wood Green 37 10.6 9.1 7.6 HA005 – White Hart Lane 10 8.1 8.0 6.6 HA006 – Queen Street 20 1.6 1.6 1.3 HA007 – Brantwood Road 60 16.9 14.9 12.3 HA008 – Willoughby Lane 36 1.1 1.1 0.9 HA009 / HA010 – North East Tottenham / Marsh Lane 68 18.2 16.4 13.6 HA011 – Millmead / Ashley Road Extensions 84 12.2 11.8 9.8 HA012 – Tottenham Hale 15 5.5 5.2 4.3 HA013 – South Tottenham 111 14.8 10.3 8.6 HA014 – Hale Wharf 12 1.7 1.7 1.4 HA015 – High Road West 26 1.4 1.4 1.1 HA016 – High Road West 1 1.0 1.0 0.9 HA017 – N17 Studios 8 1.6 1.6 1.3 HA018 – High Road East 51 3.2 3.2 2.7 HA019 – Bounds Green Industrial Estate 43 4.6 4.1 3.4 HA020 – Orion Road 1 5.8 5.6 4.6 HA021 – Lynx Express Depot 1 1.9 1.9 1.6 HA022 – Campsbourne 1 0.2 0.2 0.2 HA023 – Seven Sisters Road 17 1.1 1.1 0.9 HA024 – Lawrence Road 22 3.7 3.1 2.6 HA025 – Lindens / Rosebury Works 19 1.3 1.3 1.1



Table 9.2 Existing Haringey Employment Land Use (NLELS Land Use Definition)





(%)

Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 40 6.9 6.4 6.2 Textile (SIC 18-19) 23 3.9 4.2 4.0 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 8 1.4 0.3 0.3 Printing (SIC 22) 26 4.5 3.2 3.1 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 11 1.9 2.6 2.5 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 26 4.5 4.3 4.1 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 10 1.7 2.4 2.3 Construction (SIC 45) 16 2.7 1.4 1.3 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 50 8.6 5.7 5.5 Wholesale (SIC 51) 111 19.0 24.4 23.6 Warehousing (SIC 63) 80 13.7 10.5 10.2 Transport (SIC 62) 17 2.9 8.5 8.2 Utilities (SIC 40-41) - - - -Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) 6 1.0 1.4 1.3 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 11 1.9 3.3 3.2 Public Administration (SIC 75) 2 0.3 0.7 0.6 Multi Use 16 2.7 3.5 3.4 Under Construction 2 0.3 0.1 0.1 Vacant or Derelict 51 8.7 11.4 11.0 Unknown 77 13.2 9.2 8.8


• Around 13% of the employment site area (equating to 51 employment sites and 11ha) was

and 9ha of employment site land) are also likely to be either vacant or derelict.

either vacant or derelict. However, some of the sites identified as unknown (77 employment sites


9.3.4 Area and Floorspace Analysis • In addition there are a significant number (10) of The area and floorspace analysis has focused on the small employment clusters with areas of between distribution of net cluster and site areas across 0 and 2ha. While these clusters account for 40% Haringey along with the site floorspace distribution. of the Haringey employment clusters they only

cover 11% of the Borough employment land Net Cluster Area Distribution (13ha). The results of the Net Cluster Area assessment for Haringey are presented in Table 9.3 while the key Net Site Area Distribution findings are: Table 9.4 provides information on the distribution of net

employment sites across Haringey. Key results that • Haringey, unlike Enfield and to a less extent should be taken from this table include:

Barnet, contains no very large employment clusters (i.e., clusters that are 15ha or larger) • A good spectrum of employment land sites are

• As a result the vast majority of the Haringey found within Haringey from very small (less than employment land is located within a group of 15 250m2) through to the very large (55,000m2 plus) intermediate sized clusters (ranging from 2 to 15ha) which account for 89% of the Haringey employment land (108ha)

Table 9.3 Haringey Cluster Area Distributions Net Cluster Employment Land (ha)





0.0-1.0 2 8.0 1.2 1.0 1.1-2.0 8 32.0 11.6 9.6 2.1-5.0 5 20.0 15.7 13.0 5.1-15.0 10 40.0 92.1 76.3 15.1+ - - - -



Table 9.4 Haringey Net Site Area Distributions Net Employment Area (m2)


(m2) Percentage

Employment Area (%) 1-250 168 23.5 24,227 1.9 251-500 145 20.3 52,655 4.2 501-1,000 157 22.0 114,344 9.1 1,001-1,500 79 11.0 93,818 7.5 1,501-3,000 78 10.9 165,417 13.1 3,001-5,000 26 3.6 96,535 7.7 5,001-10,000 39 5.5 275,215 21.9 10,001-20,000 16 2.2 224,226 17.8 20,000+ 7 1.0 221,540 16.8


• Almost two thirds (66%) of the Haringey sites identified are small to medium with areas of between 1 and 1,000m2. It should be noted however that these sites cover only 15% of the net Haringey employment site area or just over 190,000m2 (19ha).

Site Floorspace Distribution The site floorspace distribution within Haringey is outlined in Table 9.5 with the key findings including:

• Just over 0.9 million m2 of employment floorspace was identified within Haringey

• The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for 26% of sites and around 28% of the net Haringey employment site area. This equates to just under 360,000m2

(36ha).

• Around 5% of the identified employment sites have no building currently located on them. Again this is likely to include a fair number of vacant or derelict sites.

• Small buildings of between 1 and 250m2 in size • Finally the top 9% of sites cover just over

720,000m2 (72ha). This equates to around 57% of the net area covered by Haringey employment sites.

are locate on approximately 30% of employment sites. In addition around 45% of employment site have small to medium sized buildings in a range of sizes between 251 and 1,500m2.


Table 9.5 Haringey Site Floorspace Distributions Site Floorspace Area (m2)



Floorspace (%) Zero 36 5.0 - -1-250 213 29.8 26,501 2.8 251-500 127 17.8 45,673 4.9 501-1,000 130 18.2 93,608 10.0 1,001-1,500 63 8.8 75,147 8.0 1,501-3,000 76 10.6 158,529 16.9 3,001-5,000 27 3.8 100,616 10.7 5,001-10,000 31 4.3 231,325 24.6 10,001-20,000 9 1.3 123,644 13.2 20,000+ 3 0.4 84,074 9.0


• Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 14%

‘Reasonable’. In addition a smaller proportion of buildings within the Borough are identified as ‘Poor’ or

of employment sites. While just 6% of employment ‘Very Poor’ than was the case for North London. sites contain large to very large buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 38,000m2 . 9.4 Employment Land Demand

9.3.5 Site Quality and Other Issues A range of information on general site quality and other relevant issues was also collected during the Haringey employment land survey work. The key building age and condition information collected is presented in

This section reviews the findings of the NLELS employment land demand forecast produced for Haringey. The GLA forecast of employment land demand is also shown for comparative purposes.

Table 9.6. The key conclusion is that building stock within Haringey are largely identified as either ‘Good’ or



Age of Buildings Haringey


Good 3 8 26 247 2 286 40.0 Reasonable 20 33 98 192 14 357 49.9 Poor 1 7 3 6 2 19 2.7 Very Poor - - - 1 - 1 0.1 Unknown - 5 11 18 18 52 7.3

Total 24 53 138 464 36 715

Percentage (%) 3.3 7.4 19.3 64.9 5.1 100.0

Table 9.6 Haringey Building Age and Condition


The borough level employment forecasts for industrial/warehousing uses produced by both the NLELS and GLA methods are presented in Table 9.7. Overall the forecasts are broadly similar with the greatest difference between the GLA and NLELS seen in the level of jobs forecast in transport (NLELS forecasting a positive growth of 12.8%, whereas GLA

have forecast -17.7%) and wholesale (NLELS forecasting growth of 13.3%, GLA -0.7%).

The employment land forecasts for Haringey to 2016 are presented in Table 9.8 and 9.9 below.


Table 9.7 Haringey Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts, 2001-2016

Sector NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment Base

2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 857 799 -6.8 909 1,030 13.3 Textile (SIC 18-19) 1,994 183 -90.8 2,115 238 -88.7 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 231 162 -29.9 245 210 -14.3 Printing (SIC 22) 846 966 14.2 897 1,238 38.0 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 837 423 -49.5 888 542 -39.0 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 1,670 796 -52.3 1,771 1,022 -42.3 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 60 541 801.7 59 651 1,005.3 Construction (SIC 45) 4,176 2,334 -44.1 3,720 2,127 -42.8 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 1,212 1,213 0.1 1,304 1,147 -12.1 Wholesale (SIC 51) 4,025 4,562 13.3 4,331 4,299 -0.7 Warehousing (SIC 63) 291 377 29.6 239 226 -5.4 Transport (SIC 60-62) 4,617 5,207 12.8 3,790 3,120 -17.7 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 15 6 -60.0 14 4 -75.5 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 128 131 2.3 138 115 -16.6 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 990 1,129 14.0 813 676 -16.8


Table 9.8 Haringey Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)





Table 9.9 Change in Haringey Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)







Mid-range -14 -12 -31 -24 Source: PACEC

9.5 Cluster Appraisals The key outcome of this appraisal has been the ranking of each cluster, compared to other Haringey and North

The employment clusters within Haringey have been London clusters, which is presented in Table 9.10. appraised according to the criteria set out in Section 2.

Table 9.10 Haringey Cluster Appraisal Results



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HA001 – Ashfield Road / Crusader Industrial Estate

105 71 45 49 27 296 19 65 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 1)

HA002 – Vale Road / Tewkesbury Road

117 75 41 41 37 311 13 50 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 18)

HA003 – Cranford Way 105 83 60 56 37 341 3 13 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 5)

HA004 – Wood Green 82 75 56 41 33 288 22 77 Strategic Employment Location / Regeneration Area (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 21)





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HA005 – White Hart Lane 105 100 34 41 43 323 9 34 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 19)

HA006 – Queen Street 117 88 38 53 43 338 5 16 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 14)

HA007 – Brantwood Road 105 96 49 49 43 342 2 12 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 3)

HA008 – Willoughby Lane 105 58 49 53 40 305 17 57 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 20)

HA009 / HA010 – North East Tottenham / Marsh Lane

117 68 45 53 43 345 1 8 North East Tottenham – Strategic Employment Location, Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 13) Marsh Lane – Strategic Employment Location, Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 24)

HA011 – Millmead / Ashley Road Extensions

105 75 53 56 37 325 7 30 Strategic Employment Location / Regeneration Area (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 12)

HA012 – Tottenham Hale 93 83 60 64 37 337 6 18 Strategic Employment Location / Regeneration Area (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 17)

HA013 – South Tottenham 105 79 60 60 37 341 4 15 Now split into two areas: South Tottenham – Strategic Employment Location / Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule e Reference: 16) Rangemoor Road / Herbert Road – Strategic Employment Location / Regeneration Area DEA (UDP Schedule e Reference: 25)

HA014 – Hale Wharf 82 58 53 53 37 282 23 80 Regeneration Area DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 7)

HA015 – High Road West 105 50 56 60 33 305 18 58 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 9)

HA016 – High Road West 93 71 60 60 40 342 8 33 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 9)

HA017 – N17 Studios 82 67 60 60 40 308 15 54 Employment Locations DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 8)

HA018 – High Road East 93 71 60 53 40 317 11 43 Employment Locations DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 23)





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HA019 – Bounds Green Industrial Estate

117 71 41 60 33 322 10 38 Employment Locations DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 2)

HA020 – Orion Road 82 75 41 49 33 280 24 81 Employment Locations DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 6)

HA021 – Lynx Express Depot

117 71 49 45 33 315 12 46 NO EMPLOYMENT DESIGNATION. Removed from employment policies

HA022 – Campsbourne 117 67 30 60 20 293 21 66 Regeneration Area DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 4)

HA023 – Seven Sisters Road

105 71 49 60 23 308 16 55 NO EMPLOYMENT DESIGNATION. Removed from employment policies

HA024 – Lawrence Road 82 79 49 53 33 295 20 67 NO EMPLOYMENT DESIGNATION. Removed from employment policies

HA025 – Lindens / Rosebury Works

117 67 38 56 33 310 14 51 Strategic Employment Location / Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 11)

Sources: Halcrow (Assessment scores and ranking), LBH (UDP Designation Comments) Note: 1. These are the UDP designations / information supplied by LBH. For further information on these designations, and confirmation that there have not

been subsequent changes, the relevant LBH UDP / Local Development Framework documents should be consulted.


10 Waltham Forest 10.1 Introduction

Waltham Forest covers an area from Chingford in the north east to Leyton at its southern most point and has a natural boundary to the western side which is effectively created by the River Lea navigation and by various reservoirs thereon. To the northern and eastern boundary are large elements of Epping Forest and to the western boundaries, contiguous to the River Lea, are areas of marshland. The A406 North Circular Road roughly divides the borough east to west whilst the improved A12 link road, effectively connecting the A406 at the Blackwall Tunnel, runs across the southern borough boundary.

A relatively small borough in London terms, the population figures estimate a total of some 220,000 with an estimated 100,000 households. Civic facilities and town hall are based at Forest Road, Walthamstow and the famous Walthamstow High Street, with its regular weekly market, is situated east west between Hoe Street and St James Street. Alongside the High Street sits the borough’s only “shopping centre”, Selbourne Walk which is relatively modern but would be considered small within shopping centre terms.


10.2.1 Industrial Market There has been no major speculative industrial development in Waltham Forest for perhaps ten years,

save for two smaller schemes in the Argall Avenue area. The borough ostensibly caters well for the small business operator since there are potentially a variety of suitable units available in the sub 5,000 sq ft sector ranging from “break up” units round Stafford Road to more modern 1980s stock in locations such as Harrow Road and Hainault Road, Leyton plus a number of schemes around the Blackhorse Lane area.

At the larger end of the industrial scale, there are limited units in excess of 20,000 sq ft which meet modern requirements but this in general reflects the fact that the internal road infrastructure is not particularly suited to major distribution. Units of 10-20,000 sq ft approx are in the main situated around Billet Road and Argall Avenue.

A surprisingly large amount of industrial stock remains from the 1950s/1960s. A clear example of this is Rigg Approach, Leyton which almost entirely consists of such buildings. Such units, whilst potentially approaching the end of their useful constructional life, are still popular as they are relatively affordable on a freehold basis.

With the exception of the “British Gas” site outlined below, there are almost no clear opportunities for developers to purchase substantial portions of land, or single land holdings to create new industrial products.


When considering the clusters identified in the study two clear industrial/warehouse locations become apparent.

• Billet Road / Blackhorse Lane / North Circular Road – Blackhorse Lane/Billet Road contains a mix of industrial and residential, in many instances the two products being situated on opposing sides of the street. Blackhorse Lane in particular was originally home to a relatively large number of single unit high employment occupiers that declined in the early 1980s. To the southern end of Blackhorse Lane there are a number of high density multi storey buildings probably constructed at the turn of the century and which are multi occupied. The remainder of Blackhorse Lane is a mix of all ages and types but include some popular estates. In Billet Road there is a distinct cluster of older buildings, including Billet Works which are high density and multi occupied, further along is the more modern 1980s Waltham Park Estate which sits almost directly adjacent to the A406.

• Argall Avenue / Orient Way / Leabridge Road, Leyton – Situated to the southern end of Leabridge Road, and now adjacent to the newly created Orient Way (A1006) is an old established industrial area which incorporates Argall Avenue, Rigg Approach and Lammas Road. These areas have all benefited from the new Link Road but in addition the Argall Avenue area had access roads improved during the past five or so years. Whilst there are some relatively new buildings in this area, the vast majority range from turn of the

century buildings to 1950s “north lit” premises, the vast majority in multi ownership

10.2.2 Commercial Market Whilst historically the borough was home to some major employers in the past, it has never been a major location for office centres. It would appear that the major occupier of offices would still be the local authority and its associated departments. There has certainly been no speculative office development in the borough on any large scale for probably 15 years and, with demand generally only coming from local occupiers and those already established in the borough, we do not foresee this situation changing.

Aside from those offices which are ancillary to industrial users, there are clusters of buildings in locations such as Church Road, Leyton, Fulbourne Road, Walthamstow and High Road, Leytonstone. In the main such buildings would be 1960s/1970s construction and they are generally now multi occupied. In the late 1980s a small unit two storey office scheme was constructed at Trinity Park, off the North Circular Road at Chingford. These were ostensibly “business” units being shell and core to the ground floor and offices above.

10.2.3 Housing Market The April 2003 draft UDP comments that the borough population is not anticipated to change greatly in the next decade, mainly due to the restriction and available land for housing. This assumption highlights the general density of the borough. Therefore the ability to transfer brown field sites to residential unit use is potentially even more urgent. Similar to most boroughs


in North London, there have been no master planned residential schemes in the borough, and residential redevelopment tends to be in pockets where existing residential was perhaps low density or industrial could be transferred. An example of this is in Wood Street, Walthamstow where a former commercial site is being redeveloped into a small residential scheme.


This review on the existing employment land supply within Waltham Forest is largely drawn from our field survey of every identified employment land clusters and sites within the Borough (as was the case for Barnet). The results of this review are outlined below and cover the areas of existing land supply and usage, site area and floorspace distributions, along with site quality and other issues.

10.3.1 Waltham Forest UDP Second Deposit Draft, 2003 The objectives of employment policy in Waltham Forest is to maximise the level and diversity of employment opportunities available to residents, maintain and encourage the widest possible range of economic activities by ensuring adequate provision of land and premises, retain and expand the borough’s business base, to regenerate / renew the urban area for industrial and business use, and improve the quality of the working environment.

Employment land in Waltham Forest is designated in three categories:

• Strategic Employment Areas (SEAs) which are industrial or business areas designated as SELs within the London Plan.

• Borough Employment Areas (BEAs) which are well established industrial and business areas with good and improving access to the transport network. These fall outside the above strategic designation

• Local Employment Areas are smaller sites outside the above designations that perform an important function within the local economy by offering local and diverse employment opportunities.

Within these designations, policies for industrial and business land encourage the concentration of appropriate uses towards the SEAs and BEAs and restrict non-business class uses in these areas (INB1). In addition the council will protect Local Employment Areas for employment uses (INB2) but outside of these areas a change of use from employment will be considered subject to certain conditions (INB3) and likewise business uses will be permitted outside these designations subject to conditions (INB7).

10.3.2 Amount of Employment LandA total of 34 employment land clusters were identified within Waltham Forest with the clusters generally spread throughout the borough. In addition a high proportion of employment land clusters were located within the Lea Valley Corridor in the West of the Borough. This distribution of clusters is shown on the Waltham Forest A1 Existing Land Use Map. A


summary of the key Waltham Forest employment land cluster information is provided in Table 10.1 with the key overall results being:

• The top three land use categories by site area are refuse and recycling, motor vehicle sale and repair, and wholesale, which combined account for 46% of employment land area (54ha) and 51%

• A total of 34 employment land clusters were identified within Waltham Forest containing 652 individual employment sites

of employment sites (274 sites) • In comparison the bottom three land use

categories are wood and paper products, • The gross employment land incorporated in these

clusters was 143ha which equates to around 3.7% of the Borough

construction, and public administration. Combined these activities account for just 2ha of employment site land area (2%) and 19 employment sites (4%)

• Once all the public roads and open space has been removed from the data then Waltham Forest is left with approximately 135ha of net employment land (about 94% of the area surveyedwithin the Borough)

• Again a small number of sites (6 sites covering an area of 1ha) were identified as being multi-use. These sites typically consisted of older multistorey buildings with different uses on separate floors.

It should be noted that a number of Waltham Forest cluster originally identified as employment land have actually been developed for other uses over the last couple of years. As a result there is no cluster WA004.

• No construction activity was identified during the days that the survey work was undertaken

• Around 16% of the employment site area (equating to 32 employment sites and 15ha) was either vacant or derelict. This is substantially higher than the previous estimates identified in

10.3.3 Net Employment Land in Industrial / Warehousing UseThe existing land uses within Waltham Forest have been assessed according to the NLELS Land Use Definition. This has resulted in the information presented in Table 10.2 which shows that:

Section 4. • It is also expected that the proportion of vacant or

derelict sites within Waltham Forest is higher than this as some of the sites identified as unknown (71 employment sites and 13ha of employment site land) are also likely to be either vacant or derelict. It was however not possible to confirm this on the

• 541 employment land sites were identified within day of the survey. Waltham Forest (83% of the total identified sites) and these cover an area of 115ha (86% of the net employment area).


Table 10.1 Waltham Forest Employment Land Clusters




Land (%)

WA001 / WA016 – The Broadway / Hickman Avenue / Jubilee Avenue

12 10.3 9.7 7.2

WA002 – Billet Works 20 3.1 2.8 2.0 WA003 / WA012 – Stirling Road / Sutherland Road / Blackhorse Lane

37 7.3 6.7 5.0

WA005 – Norlington Road 6 1.0 1.0 0.8 WA006 – Dunedin Road 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 WA007 – Leyton Business Centre 23 2.1 2.1 1.6 WA008 – Warley Close 8 0.9 0.9 0.7 WA009 – Ruckhold Road 22 2.8 2.7 2.0 WA010 – The Sidings 15 1.4 1.4 1.1 WA011 – Alpha Business Centre 14 1.7 1.5 1.1 WA013 – Walthamstow Business Centre 33 2.6 2.3 1.7 WA014 – Waltham Park Way 14 2.9 2.4 1.8 WA015 – Avenue Industrial Estate / Trinity Park

22 3.1 3.1 2.3

WA017 – Estate Way 17 5.4 5.4 4.0 WA018 – New Spitalfields Market 112 11.6 11.6 8.7 WA019 – Temple Mills Lane 2 2.2 2.2 1.6 WA020 – Depot Osier Way 2 4.8 4.8 3.6 WA021 – Fulbourne Road 3 4.5 4.4 3.3 WA022 – Ravenswood Industrial Estate 15 0.7 0.7 0.5 WA023 – Shaftesbury Road 5 0.2 0.2 0.2 WA024 – 81 Lennox Road 1 0.2 0.2 0.2 WA026 – Joseph Ray Road 5 1.7 1.7 1.3 WA027 – Acacia Business Centre 11 0.4 0.4 0.3 WA028 – Works on North Circular 1 4.9 4.9 3.7





Land (%)

WA029 / WA036 – British Gas Site 2 6.5 6.5 4.9 WA030 – Fairways Business Park 33 1.8 1.8 1.3 WA031 – Rigg Approach 15 5.1 4.6 3.4 WA032 – Argall Avenue Industrial Area 127 27.5 24.6 18.3 WA033 – Blackhorse Lane Industrial Area 59 21.6 19.3 14.4 WA034 – Cabinet Way 10 2.2 2.0 1.5 WA035 – Chingford Industrial Estate 5 1.9 1.7 1.3

Total 652 143.3 134.6 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005) Note: Clusters WA004 have been deleted as they have no employment land (i.e. they have already been converted to either housing or offices)

Table 10.2 Existing Waltham Forest Employment Land Use (NLELS Land Use Definition)





(%)

Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 16 3.0 6.8 5.9 Textile (SIC 18-19) 14 2.6 1.3 1.1 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 6 1.1 0.9 0.8 Printing (SIC 22) 32 5.9 5.2 4.6 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 13 2.4 2.0 1.8 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 17 3.1 2.3 2.0 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 5 0.9 7.2 6.2 Construction (SIC 45) 12 2.2 0.7 0.6 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 55 10.2 8.8 7.6 Wholesale (SIC 51) 214 39.6 37.5 32.6 Warehousing (SIC 63) 24 4.4 4.3 3.7 Transport (SIC 62) 10 1.8 2.9 2.5 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 1 0.2 2.5 2.2


Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) 8 1.5 1.9 1.6 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 4 0.7 1.2 1.0 Public Administration (SIC 75) 1 0.2 0.3 0.2 Multi Use 6 1.1 1.4 1.2 Under Construction - - - -Vacant or Derelict 32 5.9 14.9 12.9 Unknown 71 13.1 13.0 11.3


10.3.4 Area and Floorspace AnalysisThe area and floorspace analysis has focused on the distribution of net cluster and site areas across Waltham Forest along with the site floorspace distribution.

• The majority of the Waltham Forest clusters are however of intermediate size (ranging from 2 to 15ha) and these account for 56% of the Waltham Forest employment land (75ha)

Net Cluster Area Distribution The results of the Net Cluster Area assessment for Waltham Forest are presented in Table 10.3 with the key findings are:

Net Site Area Distribution Table 10.4 provides information on the distribution of net employment sites across Waltham Forest. Key results that should be taken from this table include:

• A good spectrum of employment land site are • Just under a third of the Waltham Forest

employment land is located within 2 very large employment clusters, each of which is 15.1ha orlarger

found within Waltham Forest from very small (less than 250m2) through to the very large (49,000m2

plus) • Over half (58%) of the Waltham Forest sites

• At the other extreme Waltham Forest also has a number of employment clusters (14 clusters) that are small with areas of between 0 and 2ha. These clusters account for 41% of the Waltham Forest employment clusters but only 12% of the Waltham Forest employment land (16ha).

identified are small to medium with areas of between 1 and 1,000m2. It should be noted however that these sites cover only 13% of the net Waltham Forest employment site area or just over 170,000m2 (17ha).


Table 10.3 Waltham Forest Cluster Area Distributions Net Cluster Employment Area (ha)



Net Employment Area (ha)

Percentage Employment Area (%)

0.0-1.0 7 20.6 4.3 3.2 1.1-2.0 7 20.6 11.5 8.6 2.1-5.0 15 44.1 52.6 39.1 5.1-15.0 3 8.8 22.3 16.6 15.1+ 2 5.9 43.9 32.6


Table 10.4 Waltham Forest Net Site Area Distributions Net Employment Area (m2)


(m2) Percentage

Employment Area (%) 1-250 103 15.8 16,213 1.2 251-500 117 17.9 43,880 3.3 501-1,000 160 24.5 113,733 8.5 1,001-1,500 64 9.8 78,548 5.8 1,501-3,000 120 18.4 251,357 18.7 3,001-5,000 27 4.1 96,337 7.2 5,001-10,000 42 6.4 299,820 22.3 10,001-20,000 11 1.7 155,193 11.5 20,000+ 8 1.2 289,716 21.5



• The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for both 32% of sites and the net Waltham Forest employment site area. This equates to just over 425,000m2 (43ha).

• Just over 0.9 million m2 of employment floorspace was identified within Waltham Forest

• Around 2% of the identified employment sites have no building currently located on them. Again

• Finally the top 9% of sites cover just under 750,000m2 (74ha). This equates to around 55% of the net area covered by all Waltham Forest employment sites.

Site Floorspace Distribution The site floorspace distribution within Waltham Forest is presented in Table 10.5. Key findings include:

this is likely to include a fair number of vacant or derelict sites.

• Small buildings of between 1 and 250m2 in size are located on approximately 31% of employment sites. In addition around 47% of employment sites have small to medium sized buildings in a range of sizes between 251 and 1,500m2.

Table 10.5 Waltham Forest Site Floorspace Distributions Site Floorspace Area (m2)



Floorspace (%) Zero 15 2.3 - -1-250 200 30.7 29,062 3.1 251-500 127 19.5 45,479 4.9 501-1,000 114 17.5 80,602 8.7 1,001-1,500 63 9.7 78,026 8.4 1,501-3,000 68 10.4 143,652 15.5 3,001-5,000 24 3.7 91,139 9.8 5,001-10,000 27 4.1 180,374 19.4 10,001-20,000 10 1.5 143,012 15.4 20,000+ 4 0.6 136,749 14.7



• Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 14% of employment sites. While just over 6% of employment sites contain large to very large buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 44,000m2.

10.3.5 Site Quality and Other Issues The key building age and condition information collected is presented within Table 10.6. The conclusion is that the building stock within Waltham Forest is largely identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’. In addition a smaller proportion of buildings within the Borough are identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ that was the case for North London.

Table 10.6 Waltham Forest Building Age and Condition


This section reviews the findings of the NLELS employment land demand forecast produced for Waltham Forest. The GLA forecast of employment land demand is also shown for comparative purposes.

The borough level industrial/warehousing demand forecasts produced by both the NLELS and GLA methods are presented in Table 10.7. Overall the employment forecasts are very similar. The greatest difference between the GLA and NLELS forecasts is in number of jobs in the construction sector for 2016 – the GLA forecast a large drop of 55.4% whereas NLELS forecast 6.4% (approximately 1,800 jobs difference).


Age of Buildings Waltham Forest


Good - - 3 400 4 407 62.4 Reasonable 2 - 59 122 4 187 28.7 Poor - - 29 10 - 39 6.0 Very Poor - - 5 2 - 7 1.1 Unknown - - - - 12 12 1.8

Total 2 - 96 534 20 652

Percentage (%) 0.3 - 14.7 81.9 3.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)


Table 10.7 Waltham Forest Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts, 2001-2016

Sector NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment Base

2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 893 833 -6.7 1,001 812 -18.9 Textile (SIC 18-19) 566 59 -89.6 634 60 -90.5 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 415 87 -79.0 465 86 -81.5 Printing (SIC 22) 1,409 1,462 3.8 1,579 1,418 -10.2 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 595 376 -36.8 667 370 -44.5 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 2,815 1,102 -60.9 3,155 1,077 -65.9 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 287 521 81.5 351 695 97.7 Construction (SIC 45) 4,530 4,242 -6.4 5,449 2,429 -55.4 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 1,361 1,058 -22.3 1,394 1,359 -2.5 Wholesale (SIC 51) 4,254 2,446 -42.5 4,358 3,136 -28.0 Warehousing (SIC 63) 232 652 181.0 240 521 117.3 Transport (SIC 60-62) 1,875 1,237 -34.0 1,936 988 -49.0 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 174 - -100.0 154 - -100.0 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 358 292 -18.4 397 318 -19.7 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 703 546 -22.3 726 436 -39.9


The employment densities and plot ratios discussed in Waltham Forest to 2016 are presented in Table 10.8 Section 5 have been used to convert jobs to floorspace and 10.9 below. and then a plot ratio to convert floorspace to Net Employment Land. The employment land forecasts for


Table 10.8 Waltham Forest Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)




Table 10.9 Change in Waltham Forest Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha)







Mid-range -43 -17 -63 -30

Source: PACEC

10.5 Cluster Appraisals the ranking of each cluster, compared to other Waltham Forest and North London clusters, which is presented

The employment clusters within Waltham Forest have in Table 10.10 below. been appraised according to the criteria set out in Section 2. The key outcome of this appraisal has been


Table 10.10 Waltham Forest Cluster Appraisal Results



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WA001 / WA016 – The Broadway / Hickman Avenue / Jubilee Avenue

117 83 56 45 40 341 19 63 WA001 – Mixed Use Regeneration Area WA016 – Borough Employment Area

WA002 – Billet Works 105 58 30 34 43 270 31 88 Borough Employment Area

WA003 / WA012 – Stirling Road / Sutherland Road / Blackhorse Lane

82 79 41 53 33 288 26 75 WA003 – Mixed Use Regeneration Area EA012 – Borough Employment Area

WA005 – Norlington Road 93 63 56 53 27 291 24 71 Mixed Use Regeneration Area

WA006 – Dunedin Road 93 88 68 60 23 332 5 23 Borough Employment Area

WA007 – Leyton Business Centre

117 63 34 30 40 283 28 78 Borough Employment Area

WA008 – Warley Close 105 63 45 53 33 298 20 64 Borough Employment Area

WA009 – Ruckholt Road 82 92 41 41 37 293 22 69 Borough Employment Area

WA010 – The Sidings 93 88 56 53 27 316 12 45 Borough Employment Area

WA011 – Alpha Business Centre


WA013 – Walthamstow Business Centre


WA014 – Waltham Park Way


WA015 – Avenue Industrial Estate / Trinity Park


WA017 – Estate Way 117 71 45 30 43 306 16 56 Borough Employment Area





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WA018 – New Spitalfields Market


WA019 – Temple Mills Lane


WA020 – Depot Osier Way


WA021 – Fulbourne Road 70 75 53 56 37 290 25 73 Borough Employment Area and Mixed Use Regeneration Area

WA022 – Ravenswood Industrial Estate

105 58 45 53 27 288 27 76 Local Employment Area

WA023 – Shaftesbury Road


WA024 – 81 Lennox Road 117 67 34 38 23 278 30 83 Local Employment Area

WA026 – Joseph Ray Road


WA027 – Acacia Business Centre


WA028 – Works on North Circular

117 68 41 53 43 341 2 14 Strategic Employment Area

WA029 / WA036 – British Gas Site


WA030 – Fairways Business Park


WA031 – Rigg Approach 105 71 41 45 37 299 18 62 Strategic Employment Area





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WA032 – Argall Avenue Industrial Area


WA033 – Blackhorse Lane Industrial Area


WA034 – Cabinet Way 117 71 41 56 40 325 8 31 Strategic Employment Area

WA035 – Chingford Industrial Estate


Sources: Halcrow (Assessment scores and ranking), LBWF (UDP Designation Comments) Note: 1. These are the UDP designations / information supplied by LBWF. For further information on these designations, and confirmation that there have not

been subsequent changes, the relevant LBWF UDP / Local Development Framework documents should be consulted.


References 1. Atkins (2004), Haringey Employment Study, Nov. 2004, LBH 2. Bowyer Bryce and King Sturge (2000), Study of Industrial Demand in the Upper Lea Valley, Final Report, London, The Upper

Lea Valley Partnership 3. EDAW, LBB and GLA (2004), Cricklewood, Brent Cross and West Hendon Regeneration Area Development Framework,

Supplementary Planning Guidance, London, LBB and GLA 4. GLA (2003), Industrial Capacity, The London Plan Draft Supplementary Planning Guidance, London, Mayor of London 5. GLA (2004), The London Plan, Spatial Development Strategy for Greater London, London, Mayor of London 6. GLA (2005a), Current Issues Note 4: Interim borough level employment projections to 2016, London, Mayor of London 7. GLA (2005b), North London Draft Sub-Regional Development Framework (Working Draft - March 2005) 8. Halcrow and PACEC (2004), Employment & Housing Implications of the Second Runway at Stansted Airport, Government

Office for the East of England and East of England Development Agency 9. JMP Consultants (2004), North London Transport Study, Final Report, London North London Transport Forum 10. LBE (1994), Enfield Unitary Development Plan, Adopted March 1994, London, LBE 11. LBE (1997), Enfield Unitary Development Plan, Interim Amendments Public Consultation Draft, London, LBE 12. LBH (1998), Haringey Unitary Development Plan, Adopted March 1998, London, LBH 13. LBH (2003a), Myddleton Road Neighbourhood Plan, London, LBH 14. LBH (2003b), Tottenham International Development Framework, Consultation Draft, London, LBH 15. LBH (2003c), Haringey Heartlands Development Framework, Consultation Draft, London, LBH 16. LBH (2004a), Former Petrol Station Site, 308 West Green Road, London N15, Planning Brief, London, LBH 17. LBH (2004b), Haringey Heartlands Draft Development Framework, Schedule of the GLA Family Comments, LBH Responses

and Changes, London, LBH 18. LBH (2004c), Haringey Unitary Development Plan, Revised Deposit Consultation Draft, September 2004, London, LBH 19. LBH (2004d), Wards Corner / Seven Sisters Underground Development Brief, London, LBH 20. LBWF (2003), Waltham Forest Unitary Development Plan, First Review Consultation Draft, April 2003, London, LBWF 21. LBWF (2004a) Waltham Forest Regeneration and Investment Strategy, London, LBWF 22. LBWF (2004b), Walthamstow Town Centre, Business Plan 2004-2010, London, LBWF 23. Locum Destination Consulting (2004), North London Product Review: North London Strategic Alliance, August 2004 24. ODPM (2004), Employment Land Reviews: Guidance Note, London, ODPM 25. ONS (2002), UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2003, London, ONS 26. PACEC and LBH (2004), Haringey City Growth Strategy, London, Small Business Service and LBH


27. RTP, King Sturge and C2G Consulting (2004), Industrial and Warehousing Land Demand in London, London, Mayor of London

28. URS (2003a), Leaside Arc, Business Survey and Planning Policy Review, Final Report, London, LBTH and LDA 29. URS (2003b), Barking & Dagenham and Havering Industrial Business Survey, Final Report, London, LBBD 30. URS (2004), Lower Lea Business Survey, Final Report, London, LDA 31. LDA (2005), The London Economic Development Strategy, London, Mayor of London


Appendix A Cluster Assessment Matrix

Doc No CBPABC Rev: E Date: March 2006 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc

Cluster Assessment Criteria and Impact Matrix Assessment Criteria

Impact Levels

1 – Strongly Negatives 2 – Negative 3 – Neutral 4 – Positive 5 – Strongly

Positive

Group 1 – Strategic Issues

• Proportion of vacant / derelict sites

The majority of the cluster sites are identified as vacant or derelict

Over a third of the cluster sites are identified as vacant or derelict

More than a tenth of the cluster sites are identified as vacant or derelict

Some of the cluster sites are identified as vacant or derelict

There are no vacant or derelict sites identified within the cluster

• Strategic mix and distribution of

The LA has a very weak policy of ensuring a

The LA has a weak policy of ensuring a

The LA has a neutral policy of ensuring a

The LA has a strong policy of ensuring a

The LA has a very strong policy of ensuring a

sites strategic mix and strategic mix and strategic mix and strategic mix and strategic mix and distribution of distribution of distribution of distribution of distribution of employment clusters employment clusters employment clusters employment clusters employment clusters

• Strategic reallocation of site usage

A significant amount of work has been undertaken by the LA or other Government

Some work has been undertaken by the LA or other Government stakeholders on the

No work has been undertaken by the LA or other Government stakeholders on the

Some work has been undertaken by the LA or other Government stakeholders on the

A significant amount of work has been undertaken by the LA or other Government

stakeholders on the redevelopment of the cluster for an alternative use

redevelopment of the cluster for an alternative use

redevelopment or renewal of the cluster

renewal of the cluster for the retention of employment uses

stakeholders on the renewal of the cluster for the retention of employment uses

Group 2 – Physical Arrangement, Access and Quality

• Overall cluster Net cluster area is less Net cluster area is Net cluster area is Net cluster area is Net cluster area is greater area and than 0.5ha between 0.5 and 2ha between 2 and 5ha between 5 and 10ha than 10ha floorspace

• Age and quality of The existing cluster The existing cluster buildings buildings are of very poor buildings are of poor

quality and age quality and age

The existing cluster The existing cluster The existing cluster buildings are of buildings are of good buildings are of very good reasonable quality and quality and age quality and age age


Assessment Criteria

Impact Levels


Positive • Quality of public The existing public realm The existing public realm The existing public realm The existing public realm The existing public realm

realm within the cluster is of within the cluster is of within the cluster is of within the cluster is of within the cluster is of very poor quality poor quality reasonable quality good quality very good quality

• Provision of The existing cluster The existing cluster drainage, lighting drainage, lighting and drainage, lighting and and security security are of very poor security are of poor

quality quality

The existing cluster The existing cluster The existing cluster drainage, lighting and drainage, lighting and drainage, lighting and security are of reasonable security are of good security are of very good quality quality quality

• Quality of parking There is very limited There is limited cluster There is reasonable There is a good amount There is very good and internal cluster parking and very parking and poor internal cluster parking and of cluster parking and amount of cluster parking circulation poor internal circulation circulation reasonable internal good internal circulation and very good internal

circulation circulation • Operation of The cluster employment The cluster employment The potential for The cluster employment The cluster employment

potentially operations are very likely operations are likely to contaminative uses is operations are unlikely to operation are very contaminative to include contaminative include contaminative unknown within the include contaminative unlikely to include uses uses used cluster employment uses contaminative uses

operations

Group 3 – Transport Access and Supporting Infrastructure

• Connections to The cluster has very poor The cluster has poor highway network connections to the connections to the

highway network highway network

The cluster has The cluster has good The cluster is very good reasonable connections connections to the connections to the to the highway network highway network highway network

• General public The cluster has a very The cluster has a low The cluster has mid range The cluster has a high The cluster has a very transport low PTAL PTAL PTAL PTAL high PTAL accessibility

• Distance to local The cluster is at least a The cluster is about a The cluster is about a The cluster is about a The cluster is generally railway station 25min walk to the nearest 20min walk to the nearest 15min walk to the nearest 10min walk to the nearest within a 5min walk to the

railway station railway station railway station railway station nearest railway station


Assessment Criteria

Impact Levels


Positive • Distance to local The cluster is at least a The cluster is about a The cluster is about a The cluster is about a The cluster is generally

shops and services

25min walk to the nearest shops and services




within a 5min walk to the nearest shops and services

Group 4 – Buffer Areas and Sensitive Receptors

• Distance to The cluster is immediately The cluster is adjacent to The cluster is near but not The cluster is near some The cluster is not close to residential adjacent to and largely residential receptors on adjacent to residential residential receptors and any residential receptors receptors surrounded by residential some sides receptors but there is only there is significant

receptors limited buffering buffering

• Distance to The cluster is immediately The cluster is adjacent to natural receptors adjacent to and largely natural receptors on

surrounded by natural some sides receptors

The cluster is near but not The cluster is near some The cluster is not close to adjacent to natural natural receptors and any natural receptors receptors but there is only there is significant limited buffering buffering

• Distance to The cluster is immediately The cluster is adjacent to The cluster is near but not The cluster is near some The cluster is not close to surface water adjacent to and largely surface water receptors adjacent to surface water surface water receptors any surface water receptors surrounded by surface on some sides receptors but there is only and there is significant receptors

water receptors limited buffering buffering

• Interaction / There is significant The are some negative The are no negative or There a positive There are significant conflicts between negative interactions interactions between the positive interactions interactions between the positive interactions cluster and between the cluster and cluster and its surround between the cluster and cluster and its between the cluster and surrounding uses its surrounding uses uses its surrounding uses surrounding uses its surrounding uses


Assessment Criteria

Impact Levels


Positive

Group 5 – Policy Considerations

• Linkages with existing regeneration policies, programmes and projects

The continued employment use of the cluster has a very low potential to enhance existing local regeneration policies, programmes and projects

The continued employment use of the cluster has a low potential to enhance existing local regeneration policies, programmes and projects

The continued employment use of the cluster will have not impact on the potential of local regeneration policies, programmes and projects

The continued employment use of the cluster has a high potential to enhance existing local regeneration policies, programmes and projects

The continued employment use of the cluster has a very high potential to enhance existing local regeneration policies, programmes and projects

• Current local The cluster is located in The cluster is located in The cluster is located in The cluster is located in The cluster is located in employment issues and deprivation levels

an area of very low social and economic deprivation

an area of low social and economic deprivation

an area or intermediate social and economic deprivation

an area of high social and economic deprivation

an area of very high social and economic deprivation

• Potential to assist The continued The continued The continued The continued The continued in the employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the achievement of economic development

cluster has a very low potential of achieve economic development

cluster has a low potential of achieve economic development targets

cluster has a reasonable potential of achieve economic development

cluster has a high potential of achieve economic development

cluster has a very high potential of achieve economic development

targets targets targets targets targets


Appendix B Cluster Appraisals


North London Employment Land Study Halcrow Appendix B - Final Report 05/05/2006

Borough Cluster Identifier Cluster Name

Num

ber o

f Site

s

Net

Em

ploy

men

t Are

a (h

a)

Group 1 - Strategic Issues Group 2 - Physical arrangement, access and quality Group 3 - Transport Access and Supporting Infrastructure

Group 4 - Buffer Areas and Sensitive Receptors Group 5 - Policy Consideration

Tota

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ent R

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)

Ass

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th L

ondo

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Prop

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s

Stra

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of s

ites

Stra

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allo

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ge

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Age

and

qua

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of b

uild

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Qua

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real

m

Prov

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Qua

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Ope

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es

Tota

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Con

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Gen

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Dis

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Barnet BA001 Barnet Trading Estate 20 1.9 1 2 2 1.7 35 58.3 2 1 2 1 2 3 1.8 25 45.8 1 3 3 4 2.8 15 41.3 1 1 3 1 1.5 15 22.5 1 3 1 1.7 10 16.7 184.6 16 94 Barnet BA002 Falkland Road Industrial

Estate 10 0.6 3 2 3 2.7 35 93.3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 1 3 2 4 2.5 15 37.5 1 3 3 1 2.0 15 30.0 1 1 1 1.0 10 10.0 237.5 12 90

Barnet BA003 Bittacy Business Centre 14 4.8 4 2 4 3.3 35 116.7 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 3 3 5 4 3.8 15 56.3 3 1 3 1 2.0 15 30.0 1 3 3 2.3 10 23.3 317.9 4 41 Barnet BA004 /

BA005 / BA012

Brent Terrace / Finchley Industrial Estate

37 18.6 2 2 1 1.7 35 58.3 5 2 2 3 2 2 2.7 25 66.7 5 3 3 5 4.0 15 60.0 4 4 4 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 274.6 9 85

Barnet BA006 Brunswick Industrial Park 12 3.6 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 5 3 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 1 4 4 1 2.5 15 37.5 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 327.5 2 26 Barnet BA009 /

BA010 / BA011

Collindale Primary Employment Area

22 2.6 2 2 3 2.3 35 81.7 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 3 5 4 4.3 15 63.8 1 1 1 1 1.0 15 15.0 1 3 3 2.3 10 23.3 254.6 11 89

Barnet BA013 Edgware Forum Side 11 1.3 1 2 1 1.3 35 46.7 2 2 1 2 1 2 1.7 25 41.7 3 5 5 4 4.3 15 63.8 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 1 4 1 2.0 10 20.0 232.1 14 92 Barnet BA014 Finchley Industrial Estate 8 0.9 2 2 3 2.3 35 81.7 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 1 4 4 1 2.5 15 37.5 3 1 2 2.0 10 20.0 279.2 7 82 Barnet BA015 Garrick Industrial Estate 17 5.5 4 2 4 3.3 35 116.7 4 4 4 4 4 3 3.8 25 95.8 3 3 5 3 3.5 15 52.5 2 3 1 4 2.5 15 37.5 3 3 3 3.0 10 30.0 332.5 1 22 Barnet BA017 The Hyde Industrial Estate 20 0.7 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 3 3 3 4 3.3 15 48.8 2 2 2 4 2.5 15 37.5 3 3 3 3.0 10 30.0 308.8 5 53 Barnet BA018 Lancaster Road Industrial

Estate 14 1.3 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 2 4 4 4 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 1 3 4 4 3.0 15 45.0 1 4 4 1 2.5 15 37.5 2 1 3 2.0 10 20.0 290.8 6 72

Barnet BA019 Mill Hill Industrial Estate 13 1.7 3 2 3 2.7 35 93.3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2.7 25 66.7 3 3 3 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 2 4 4 3.0 15 45.0 4 2 3 3.0 10 30.0 276.3 8 84 Barnet BA020 Northern Telecoms Works 4 8.5 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 4 4 4 4 4 3 3.8 25 95.8 5 1 2 2 2.5 15 37.5 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 2 4 3 3.0 10 30.0 324.6 3 32 Barnet BA021 Pricklers Hill 11 0.5 3 2 3 2.7 35 93.3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1.7 25 41.7 5 3 1 4 3.3 15 48.8 1 3 4 2 2.5 15 37.5 1 1 1 1.0 10 10.0 231.3 15 93 Barnet BA022 Queens Road Industrial

Estate 12 0.9 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 2 3 3 3 4 3 3.0 25 75.0 1 1 1 1 1.0 15 15.0 1 1 3 1 1.5 15 22.5 2 1 2 1.7 10 16.7 234.2 13 91

Barnet BA023 Oakleigh Road South 3 2.1 2 2 3 2.3 35 81.7 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 3 3 3 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 2 4 4 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 272.1 10 86 Enfield EN001 Chase Side Works 7 0.9 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2.2 25 54.2 1 3 3 3 2.5 15 37.5 1 4 4 1 2.5 15 37.5 2 1 1 1.3 10 13.3 270.8 23 87 Enfield EN003 Regents Avenue 9 1.8 4 4 2 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 4 4 3 4 3.8 15 56.3 1 4 1 1 1.8 15 26.3 1 3 3 2.3 10 23.3 289.2 22 74 Enfield EN004 Oakthorpe Dairy 1 3.1 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 4 2 2 2 2.5 15 37.5 1 1 1 1 1.0 15 15.0 3 3 3 3.0 10 30.0 302.5 21 61 Enfield EN005 New Southgate Industrial

Estate 16 1.7 4 4 2 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 4 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 3 4 1 1 2.3 15 33.8 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 322.1 16 37

Enfield EN006 Redburn Trading Estate 30 3.8 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 4 3 4 1 3.0 15 45.0 4 2 1 2 2.3 15 33.8 5 4 3 4.0 10 40.0 327.1 13 27 Enfield EN007 Queensway 33 3.4 4 4 2 3.3 35 116.7 3 2 2 2 2 3 2.3 25 58.3 2 3 4 4 3.3 15 48.8 3 4 4 3 3.5 15 52.5 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 309.6 19 52 Enfield EN008 Lea Valley Trading Estate 61 17.1 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 5 4 4 4 4 3 4.0 25 100.0 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 4 4 1 3 3.0 15 45.0 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 357.9 1 2 Enfield EN009 /

EN014 / EN026

Meridian Way Land / Glover Drive / Kimberly Road

7 23.2 2 4 4 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 5 2 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 4 4 2 3 3.3 15 48.8 4 5 5 4.7 10 46.7 344.2 7 9

Enfield EN010 Montagu Industrial Estate / Kenninghall Estate / Railtrack Land

62 13.8 3 4 4 3.7 35 128.3 5 3 3 3 3 2 3.2 25 79.2 5 2 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 3 3 3 1 2.5 15 37.5 3 5 5 4.3 10 43.3 337.1 10 19

Enfield EN011 Claverings Industrial Estate / Dominion Business Park / Horizon Business Centre

33 2.7 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 3 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 4 4 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 316.3 18 44

Enfield EN012 Langhedge Lane Industrial Estate

7 0.7 4 4 2 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 3 3 3 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 4 4 3 3.3 15 48.8 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 303.8 20 59

Enfield EN013 Commercial Road and North Middlesex Estate

56 9.2 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 4 3 3 3 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 3 2 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 2 3 4 3 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 322.9 15 35

Enfield EN015 Eley's Estate 77 24.5 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 3 3 2 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 2 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 4 4 4 3 3.8 15 56.3 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 344.2 8 10 Enfield EN016 Innova Park 11 35.7 2 4 2 2.7 35 93.3 5 4 4 4 4 3 4.0 25 100.0 5 2 3 2 3.0 15 45.0 3 3 4 4 3.5 15 52.5 5 3 3 3.7 10 36.7 327.5 12 25 Enfield EN017 Hertford Road / Mollison

Avenue 2 10.9 2 4 3 3.0 35 105.0 5 3 4 4 4 3 3.8 25 95.8 5 3 4 3 3.8 15 56.3 2 4 4 3 3.3 15 48.8 5 3 3 3.7 10 36.7 342.5 9 11

Enfield EN018 Meridian Business Park 17 18.9 2 4 2 2.7 35 93.3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 5 2 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 4 3 4.0 10 40.0 317.9 17 40 Enfield EN019 Aztec 406 Development Site 6 19.3 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 4 4 4 4 3 4.0 25 100.0 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 353.8 3 4

Enfield EN020 Brimsdown Industrial Area 243 115.1 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 2 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 4 3 4.0 10 40.0 357.1 2 3 Enfield EN021 Great Cambridge Industrial

Estate 26 11 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 3 4 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 4 3 3 3.3 10 33.3 334.6 11 21

Enfield EN022 Great Cambridge Road (Martinbridge Trading Estate)

15 7 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 4 3 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 4 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 4 3 3 3.3 10 33.3 345.8 4 5

Enfield EN023 Great Cambridge Road 9 7.1 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 4 4 5 3 4.0 15 60.0 2 4 4 2 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 345.8 5 6 Enfield EN024 Great Cambridge Road 59 23.4 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 4 3 4 3 3.5 15 52.5 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 345.8 6 7 Enfield EN025 Alma Industrial Estate 20 4.6 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 2 2 3 3 2.5 15 37.5 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 326.3 14 29 Haringey HA001 Ashfield Road / Crusader

Industrial Estate 18 2.5 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 3 3 3 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 1 3.3 15 48.8 3 4 1 2.7 10 26.7 296.3 19 65

File: 06 05 05 Appendix B - Cluster Appraisals.xls Sheet: North London Page 1 of 3



Num

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Haringey HA002 Vale Road / Tewkesbury Road

37 6.4 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 4 3 3 3 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 3 2 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 2 5 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 3 4 4 3.7 10 36.7 310.8 13 50

Haringey HA003 Cranford Way 17 7.2 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 4 3 3 3 4 3 3.3 25 83.3 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 4 4 3.7 10 36.7 341.3 3 13 Haringey HA004 Wood Green 37 9.1 4 2 1 2.3 35 81.7 4 3 3 3 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 2 5 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 287.5 22 77 Haringey HA005 White Hart Lane 10 8 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4.0 25 100.0 2 3 2 2 2.3 15 33.8 2 3 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 323.3 9 34 Haringey HA006 Queen Street 20 1.6 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 2 2 3 3 2.5 15 37.5 3 4 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 337.5 5 16 Haringey HA007 Brantwood Road 60 14.9 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 5 3 4 4 4 3 3.8 25 95.8 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 2 5 5 1 3.3 15 48.8 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 341.7 2 12 Haringey HA008 Willoughby Lane 36 1.1 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 2 2 2 3 2 3 2.3 25 58.3 4 3 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 304.6 17 57 Haringey HA009 / North East Tottenham / 68 16.4 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 4 3 3 3 3.5 25 87.5 4 3 4 1 3.0 15 45.0 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 345.0 1 8

HA010 Marsh Lane Haringey HA011 Millmead / Ashley Road

Extensions 84 11.8 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 5 3 2 3 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 5 2 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 325.4 7 30

Haringey HA012 Tottenham Hale 15 5.2 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 4 3 3 3 4 3 3.3 25 83.3 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 5 4 5 3 4.3 15 63.8 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 337.1 6 18 Haringey HA013 South Tottenham 111 10.3 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 5 3 3 3 2 3 3.2 25 79.2 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 3 5 5 3 4.0 15 60.0 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 340.8 4 15 Haringey HA014 Hale Wharf 12 1.7 3 3 1 2.3 35 81.7 2 2 2 3 2 3 2.3 25 58.3 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 5 1 3 3.5 15 52.5 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 281.7 23 80 Haringey HA015 High Road West 26 1.4 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.0 25 50.0 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 4 5 5 2 4.0 15 60.0 3 5 2 3.3 10 33.3 304.6 18 58 Haringey HA016 High Road West 1 1 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 4 5 5 2 4.0 15 60.0 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 324.2 8 33 Haringey HA017 N17 Studios 8 1.6 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 4 5 5 2 4.0 15 60.0 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 308.3 15 54 Haringey HA018 High Road East 51 3.2 3 3 2 2.7 35 93.3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 316.7 11 43 Haringey HA019 Bounds Green Industrial 43 4.1 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 3 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 4 5 4 3 4.0 15 60.0 3 3 4 3.3 10 33.3 322.1 10 38

Estate Haringey HA020 Orion Road 1 5.6 1 3 3 2.3 35 81.7 4 2 3 3 3 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 3 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 2 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 3 3 4 3.3 10 33.3 280.0 24 81 Haringey HA021 Lynx Express Depot 1 1.9 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 5 2 2 3 3.0 15 45.0 3 3 4 3.3 10 33.3 314.6 12 46 Haringey HA022 Campsbourne 1 0.2 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 1 3 3 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 2 2 2 2 2.0 15 30.0 4 5 5 2 4.0 15 60.0 2 3 1 2.0 10 20.0 293.3 21 68 Haringey HA023 Seven Sisters Road 17 1.1 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 4 5 4 3 4.0 15 60.0 1 5 1 2.3 10 23.3 307.9 16 55 Haringey HA024 Lawrence Road 22 3.1 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 3 3 3 3 4 3 3.2 25 79.2 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 3 5 2 3.3 10 33.3 295.4 20 67 Haringey HA025 Lindens / Rosebury Works 19 1.3 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 3 3 2 2 2.5 15 37.5 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 5 1 3.3 10 33.3 310.4 14 51 Waltham WA001 / The Broadway / Hickman 12 9.7 3 2 2 2.3 35 81.7 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 2 3 5 5 3.8 15 56.3 2 2 5 3 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 4 3.7 10 36.7 298.8 19 63 Forest WA016 Avenue / Jubilee Avenue Waltham WA002 Billet Works 20 2.8 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 3 2 2 2 2 3 2.3 25 58.3 5 1 1 1 2.0 15 30.0 2 2 2 3 2.3 15 33.8 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 270.4 31 88 Forest Waltham Forest

WA003 / WA012

Stirling Road / Sutherland Road / Blackhorse Lane

37 6.7 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 2 3 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 287.9 26 75

Waltham WA005 Norlington Road 6 1 3 3 2 2.7 35 93.3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2.5 25 62.5 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 291.3 24 71 Forest Waltham Forest

WA006 Dunedin Road 1 0.8 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 5 4 4 4.5 15 67.5 3 5 5 3 4.0 15 60.0 1 5 1 2.3 10 23.3 331.7 5 23

Waltham Forest

WA007 Leyton Business Centre 23 2.1 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 2 2 3 2 3 2.5 25 62.5 3 2 2 2 2.3 15 33.8 2 2 2 2 2.0 15 30.0 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 282.9 28 78

Waltham Forest

WA008 Warley Close 8 0.9 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 2 2 2 3 3 3 2.5 25 62.5 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 4 2 3.3 10 33.3 298.3 20 64

Waltham Forest

WA009 Ruckholt Road 22 2.7 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 2 5 2 2.8 15 41.3 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 292.5 22 69

Waltham Forest

WA010 The Sidings 15 1.4 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 316.3 12 45

Waltham Forest

WA011 Alpha Business Centre 14 1.5 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 4 3 4 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 5 3 5 5 4.5 15 67.5 5 2 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 4 2 3.0 10 30.0 322.1 10 39

Waltham Forest

WA013 Walthamstow Business Centre

33 2.3 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 4 3 4 2 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 337.5 3 17

Waltham Forest

WA014 Waltham Park Way 14 2.4 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 3 3 4 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 3 1 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 2 5 3 3.0 15 45.0 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 322.5 9 36

Waltham Forest

WA015 Avenue Industrial Estate / Trinity Park

22 3.1 2 4 4 3.3 35 116.7 4 4 4 4 3 3 3.7 25 91.7 4 2 1 2 2.3 15 33.8 2 2 5 3 3.0 15 45.0 4 4 4 4.0 10 40.0 327.1 7 28

Waltham WA017 Estate Way 17 5.4 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 4 2 2 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 2 2 2 2.0 15 30.0 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 305.8 16 56 Forest Waltham Forest

WA018 New Spitalfields Market 112 11.6 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 4 4 4 4 3 4.0 25 100.0 5 2 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 5 2 2 3 3.0 15 45.0 5 5 5 5.0 10 50.0 360.4 1 1

Waltham Forest

WA019 Temple Mills Lane 2 2.2 2 3 4 3.0 35 105.0 3 2 2 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 2 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 312.5 15 49

Waltham Forest

WA020 Depot Osier Way 2 4.8 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 2 2 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 5 4 3 3 3.8 15 56.3 5 2 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 335.8 4 20

Waltham Forest

WA021 Fulbourne Road 3 4.4 1 3 2 2.0 35 70.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.0 25 75.0 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 290.4 25 73




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Waltham Forest

WA022 Ravenswood Industrial Estate 15 0.7 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 2 2 2 3 3 2 2.3 25 58.3 3 3 3 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 287.5 27 76

Waltham Forest

WA023 Shaftesbury Road 5 0.2 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 1 3 3 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 1 3.3 15 48.8 2 5 1 2.7 10 26.7 292.1 23 70

Waltham Forest

WA024 81 Lennox Road 1 0.2 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 1 3 3 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 2 3 2 2 2.3 15 33.8 2 2 5 1 2.5 15 37.5 2 4 1 2.3 10 23.3 277.9 30 83

Waltham Forest

WA026 Joseph Ray Road 5 1.7 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 5 4 5 5 4.8 15 71.3 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 2 5 2 3.0 10 30.0 313.8 13 47

Waltham Forest

WA027 Acacia Business Centre 11 0.4 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 1 4 4 4 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 4 5 5 5 4.8 15 71.3 3 5 5 3 4.0 15 60.0 2 5 1 2.7 10 26.7 330.4 6 24

Waltham Forest

WA028 Works on North Circular 1 4.9 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 4 4 4 3 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 341.3 2 14

Waltham Forest

WA029 / WA036

British Gas Site 2 6.5 1 3 5 3.0 35 105.0 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 2 5 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 5 4 4.7 10 46.7 317.1 11 42

Waltham Forest

WA030 Fairways Business Park 33 1.8 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 2 4 3 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 2 3.7 10 36.7 282.9 29 79

Waltham Forest

WA031 Rigg Approach 15 4.6 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 3 2 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 2 2 3 3.0 15 45.0 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 298.8 18 62

Waltham Forest

WA032 Argall Avenue Industrial Area 127 24.6 3 3 2 2.7 35 93.3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 1 2 2 2.5 15 37.5 3 2 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 296.3 21 66

Waltham Forest

WA033 Blackhorse Lane Industrial Area

59 19.3 3 3 2 2.7 35 93.3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 303.8 17 60

Waltham Forest

WA034 Cabinet Way 10 2 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 325.0 8 31

Waltham Forest

WA035 Chingford Industrial Estate 5 1.7 4 3 4 3.7 35 128.3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.0 25 50.0 5 2 2 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 4 2 3.3 10 33.3 312.9 14 48


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