local government areas of wa · february 2012 western australia tomorrow population report no. 7,...

82
February 2012 Western Australia Tomorrow Population Report No. 7, 2006 to 2026 Forecast Summary Local Government Areas of WA

Upload: nguyenphuc

Post on 28-May-2018

213 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

February 2012

Western Australia TomorrowPopulation Report No. 7, 2006 to 2026

Forecast Summary

Local Government Areas of WA

Population Report No. 7

Western Australia Tomorrow

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Published by theWestern Australian Planning Commission140 William StreetPerth, Western Australia 6000

Authors: Tom Mulholland and Anna Piscicelli

Disclaimer: Any representation, statement opinion or advice ex-pressed or implied in this publication is made in good faith and onthe basis that the government, its employees and agents are notliable for any damage or loss whatsoever which may occur as a re-sult of action taken or not taken, as the case may be, in respect ofany representation. statement opinion or advice, referred to herein.Professional advice should be obtained before applying the infor-mation contained in this document to particular circumstances.

Foreword

Western Australia Tomorrow is a set of forecasts1 based on trendssince the 1980s. The forecasts represent the best estimate of futurepopulation size if trends in fertility, mortality and migration con-tinue. They use the latest information about changes in trends. Insome cases these have occurred since the 2006 base year.

Trend forecasts are used in a number of ways. One of them is toidentify those futures which we wish to build upon and some thatwe would rather avoid. As a result government has adopted plansand strategies that are expected to change future trends. These in-clude Directions 2031 and Beyond, Pilbara Cities and Supertowns.Each of the plans and strategies has included a forecast of futurepopulation.

The forecasts within these plans and strategies differ from WA To-morrow in a number of ways. In some cases, such as Directions2031, the aggregate forecast has been consistent with WA Tomor-row. The emphasis in this plan is on meeting the requirement tofind room for future population growth while maintaining local en-vironments and valued quality of life. In other cases the forecastsrepresent an aspirational target which is seen as beneficial for thecommunities involved. The emphasis may not be on the forecastbut rather on what changes may be needed to change future pop-ulation. As a result the forecast is about direction and not theultimate size of population.

Future WA Tomorrow forecasts will incorporate the changes achievedthrough these plans and strategies. Sometimes it will be easy toknow how to incorporate the different views of the future. Readerswill need to fully understand what a particular plan or strategy istrying to achieve and make an assessment on the relevance of theplan or strategy.

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026IntroductionThe WA Tomorrow forecasts for local gov-ernment areas have been developed to pro-vide comprehensive demographic informationabout the age and sex structure of future pop-ulation. This information is required to meeta wide range of demand for a variety of Stategovernment agencies.

The total population forecasts that are pre-sented here are a secondary use (albeit animportant one) of the forecasts. Users whowish to understand changes to the age of thepopulation or to look at what changes are ex-pected for those of particular ages should lookat the other publications (forecast profiles)which have been prepared.

What’s new in these forecastsThese forecasts have been prepared using10,000 slightly different simulations. Thesimulations emulate the variability that isshown in past data. The simulations havebeen broken into bands according to the to-tal population in any given year. There arefive bands each with 2,000 simulations. Themedian value of each band is published to give5 forecasts for each LGA.

Band A contains the lowest forecast simula-tions. Band E has the highest simulations.The forecast for Band C is also the medianvalue for all the forecasts as it is the middleband. The Band C forecast is comparablewith the previous WA Tomorrow (2005) pub-lication.

The main part of this publication is the pro-vision of total population data for each localauthority. Bands A, C and E are provided.Two charts accompany the table. The first isa visualisation of the table and includes his-torical data to give perspective to the fore-casts. The second chart shows the change inage profiles between 2006 and 2026. In mostcases the changes are less dramatic than pre-vious forecasts. This is due to the more real-istic migration modelling.

Limits of population forecastingIf we lived in a world that did not changethere would be little need for forecasts.Nathan Keyfitz2 notes that for us to act ina way that is useful we need to have at leastsome idea of what the future holds. Somepeople suggest that the world is so erraticthat we cannot forecast with any degree ofcertainty. This echoes the work of DavidHume.3 He concluded that we could not con-ceive the future without understanding howevents/things happen. This work resonatesin contemporary statements that the worldis ever changing and we cannot use the pastas a guide to the future. The suggestion isthat we must include everything to be ableto forecast.

In contrast Frederick L. Will4 in his paper“Will the future be like the past? ” argueswhen we find patterns that are so consistentthat we can always be sure of them. He con-cludes that even in the future we can still besure of them. As a result, forecasters searchfor these regular patterns. Weather forecast-ers have found regular events can give us anidea of future weather. They are not perfectbut they are good enough to use them daily.A forecast of rain will see many of us pickup our umbrellas. Airlines use the forecast toavoid bad weather. The forecasts have limi-tations, but this does not stop us from usingthem.

Using modelsForecasters use models to make their fore-cast. Therefore, to understand the forecastswe need to understand modelling. One of themost basic models that we use is the sim-ple average. We use it to make life under-standable. Our problems begin when we oversimplify. If we are not careful, we begin todescribe the average person as half man /half woman. This is patently incorrect asthe number of people who actually have suchmedical issues is very small. When you lookeven more deeply you find that nature ac-

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 1 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

tually produces more males than females soeven the half is not that accurate. The realmodel is that about half the population is fe-male and half is male.

Models are a way of representing the worldin a simplified manner. We know that thesemodels can never be exact. The engineer usesphysical models in wind tunnels to test outcomplex mathematical equations. This showsthey can still be useful. The key to their use-fulness is their relevance. George Box high-lighted this in his 1971 presidential addressto the American Statistics Conference. Hecalled on statisticians to use models that re-flect reality. He said this was more impor-tant than using sophisticated modelling tech-niques. The cohort component model used inthese forecasts meets this requirement.

Modelling choices for the fore-casterModellers need to build models that are re-alistic. They should not reinvent the world.It is said that Albert Einstein suggested thatmodels should be as simple as possible, butnot so simple that they ignore essential as-pects of reality.

To forecast the total population of WesternAustralia we could simply extend the pasttrend. This technique has been widely usedand in many cases is good enough. However,it has been shown that simple, or complex,extrapolation is not a good choice for fore-casting the age and sex of a population.

The reason for this is that age, like the fore-cast, changes with time. This means that theage and sex of a past population influencesthe future population. A person aged 10 atthe beginning of a forecast will be aged 30 bythe end of a 20-year forecast. Therefore, thesimplest way to forecast their age the follow-ing year is to add 1 year each year.

This deceptively simple calculation forms thebedrock of demographic accounting. Wemake the component assumptions using past

rates of fertility, mortality and migration.This model is called a cohort componentmodel. The model takes the existing popu-lation as a base. For each year of the forecastbirths are added to the existing population asare new migrants, next deaths and outwardmigrants are removed. There is no need forextrapolation.

Past trends are never perfectly stable. Ratesvary from year to year and we only get arough guide for the future. This forecast uses10,000 simulations to show the same erraticnature as seen in the past. Using this num-ber of simulations allows us to get some ideaof future uncertainty. In some ways, it is likestating, “There is a possibility of rain, late inthe afternoon” or “we are not sure, but oftenit happens.”

So how does it all work?The population is aged one year. This meansthere are no babies left, as all children are nowaged one or older. Therefore, we calculatehow many new babies will be born. Researchshows that the age of a woman is an impor-tant indicator of when she will have a baby.Biological, social and legal restriction meansthat women are generally aged between 15and 50. The number of women in this agegroup determines how many babies will beborn. This in turn suggests that the numberof women aged 14 to 49 in the previous yearwill form the core of the women who will fi-nally have babies. To a lesser degree we cansay that women aged between 5 and 40 tenyears previously will also be a good indicatorof the number of potential mothers in thatyear.

This is important, as we know that previousbaby booms have resulted in boom echoes.This is because each boom group reaches theage of motherhood at the same time. That isfemale babies from a baby boom grow up andtend to have their babies at the same time.This is true in many different countries.

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 2 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Just as there is inevitability about birth beinga requirement to enter the population, mor-tality plays a role in leaving. The 17th cen-tury saw these regularities5 and we still seethem today. Ever since, demographers andactuaries have been working at ways of calcu-lating how long we can expect to live . Insur-ance companies use these regularities to cal-culate life insurance premiums, so that theycan ensure a profit. The techniques work wellas insurance companies continue to offer lifeinsurance.

The pattern of mortality is equally wellknown. Very young children are at theirweakest just after they are born. It is heart-ening to know that as young children age theyare less likely to die. However as they be-gin to reach teenage years the risk taking,particularly by boys, takes its inevitable toll.This keeps rising until maturity appears totake hold and the death rate stabilises. Fora while, the death rate does not vary a lot.As we reach our 50s, as the adverts asking usto see the doctor testify, medical conditionsstart to take their toll and the rates start torise as we age.

This pattern is resistant to all but the mostdramatic events such as plague, epidemicsand war. The regularities of births anddeaths mean that in the short term forecastsare accurate. The model passes the test setby George Box, in that they model a reality.However, they form only part of the story.

While each of us has only one birth and onedeath, we may choose to move where we like,as often as we like. This is probably the mostdifficult demographic component to forecast.

Like mortality, migration has been studied fora long time. In 1885 E.G. Ravenstein wroteabout“The Laws of Migration.”Much of whathe wrote is still relevant today. There is a vastamount of research on why we migrate. How-ever, we cannot model the movements with asingle theory. As with mortality and fertility,migration shares a relationship with age.

The story of migration is familiar to many ofus. When we are children, we have no controlover where we live, so for the moment we willskip the early years. However, by the timewe reach our teenage years there are obviouspatterns that emerge. For some a move to aschool is required if we wish to get the edu-cation we want. More likely, it is attendanceat a tertiary institution where there appearto be limited opportunities in regional WA.

From our later teenage years, we start enter-ing the workforce. We now have the moneyto make a move. The reason for moving mayinclude setting up home or finding a job inanother town. There are many varied rea-sons, but the commonality is that it is timeto leave home. This tends to reach a peakbetween the ages of 15 and 23, when this agegroup is more mobile than they will be at anyother time in their life.

From this peak, the rate of migration be-gins to fall. However, it is after these agesthat the pattern for children becomes evi-dent. Migration is high when the childrenare young. Before school age, there is lessneed to think about their education but wesee that as they commence school the numberof children moving reduces. It seems likelythat the family structure plays a role in de-termining how often families move. Typically,we reach the lowest mobility just before sec-ondary school. It then continues to rise aschildren leave home.

As we age our propensity to move declines.There are two main exceptions to this. Thefirst is associated with life changes made be-fore or for retirement purposes. These typi-cally include looking for places to live wherework is not the major factor. Lastly, for thefirst time in a person’s life there are signif-icant moves made because of health relatedreasons. We might move into an aged carefacility or in other cases to a place where spe-cific medical facilities are available.

These patterns vary from region to region and

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 3 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

it is clear that there are distinct relationshipsin the past migration that relate to age. Ithas been also been shown that the local pat-tern tends to be similar over time. We haveused local migration patterns in these fore-casts. Some places are favoured destinationsfor retirement or work and these patterns re-main stable over time.

UncertaintyThe single forecast in WA Tomorrow (2005)used an average of past trends. The problemis that averages can mask the true picture.This was not obvious to most users who as-sumed the single number forecast had a highlevel of accuracy.

This set of forecasts addresses the unrealisticexpectations of many users. It highlights thelimitations of trend forecasts. It gives an es-timate of how uncertain these forecasts maybe. It gives some advice about how to bestuse the information contained within them.We have seen that past forecasts are useful.They have included most of the future popu-lation change.

Trend forecasts are not a prediction of fu-ture population change. Instead, they iden-tify future pitfalls or opportunities. Planningis on ongoing process that seeks to changepast trends. There are active projects suchas “Directions 2031 and beyond” that seek toenhance many facets of life. There are gov-ernment initiatives to improve the economicperformance of our economy. These forecastsinfluence such projects, which in turn alterfuture population change.

Advice for usersIf you are making big decisions seek profes-sional advice. These trend forecasts are lim-ited to information from the past. Usersshould ensure that they also know aboutprojects attempting to alter future popula-

tion change. Some of the initiatives will bemore successful than others.

However, this does not mean that all newprojects are inherently extra to the fore-casts. There are always new businesses start-ing while others close. Typically there is anover emphasis on the impact that new miningprojects will bring about.

The most difficult task is separating factfrom fiction. The processes involved in ma-jor projects are complex. History shows thatsome projects are quick to evolve while otherscan take a very long time. Commercial confi-dentiality can make it difficult to find the realfacts. Opponents and proponents may pro-vide biased information. Users need to maketheir own decisions on these issues.

If these forecasts are being looked at from aneconomic perspective, some care is required.The trends in these forecasts, particularly formigration, are based on the recent past. Dur-ing this time there has been little negativeeconomic news. Some commentators wouldsuggest that this cannot continue indefinitely.

Nuances that are in the forecastsThere are a number of LGAs where there isinformation specific to that LGA or region.This information is included in the reports.Users should ensure they have found any rel-evant notes. We have adjusted the forecastswhere there is an apparent change in trend.Users should ensure that they are comfortablewith those changes.

Users should read the assumptions and tech-nical notes used in these projections. Themost important assumption is overseas mi-gration into Australia. Many users will notexpect overseas migration to play a big rolein the size of local populations. This cannotbe overstressed.

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 4 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Albany (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 33 400 33 400 33 5002007 33 800 34 000 34 3002008 34 200 34 500 35 1002009 34 800 35 200 36 2002010 35 400 35 900 37 3002011 36 000 36 600 38 3002012 36 500 37 300 39 1002013 37 100 37 900 39 9002014 37 600 38 500 40 5002015 38 000 39 100 41 1002016 38 500 39 600 41 6002017 39 000 40 200 42 2002018 39 400 40 700 42 8002019 39 900 41 300 43 4002020 40 300 41 800 44 0002021 40 800 42 400 44 6002022 41 300 42 900 45 2002023 41 700 43 500 45 9002024 42 100 44 000 46 5002025 42 600 44 500 47 1002026 43 000 45 100 47 800

Armadale (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 52 600 52 700 52 9002007 53 700 54 700 55 9002008 54 700 56 800 59 1002009 55 700 59 000 62 7002010 56 700 61 200 66 3002011 57 900 63 300 69 5002012 59 400 65 400 72 3002013 60 900 67 500 75 1002014 62 600 69 600 77 5002015 64 300 71 600 79 9002016 66 100 73 600 82 1002017 67 900 75 600 84 3002018 69 700 77 600 86 6002019 71 500 79 600 88 8002020 73 400 81 600 91 0002021 75 100 83 600 93 3002022 77 000 85 600 95 4002023 78 700 87 600 97 7002024 80 400 89 500 99 9002025 82 200 91 500 102 0002026 83 900 93 400 104 200

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 5 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Ashburton (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 6 500 6 600 6 6002007 5 900 6 400 6 9002008 5 400 6 400 7 4002009 5 000 6 400 8 0002010 4 500 6 400 8 4002011 4 100 6 300 8 7002012 3 800 6 100 8 7002013 3 500 5 900 8 6002014 3 200 5 700 8 4002015 2 800 5 300 8 1002016 2 500 5 000 7 7002017 2 200 4 700 7 3002018 1 900 4 300 7 0002019 1 600 4 000 6 6002020 1 300 3 600 6 3002021 1 000 3 300 6 0002022 870 3 000 5 7002023 760 2 700 5 4002024 690 2 400 5 1002025 660 2 100 4 8002026 640 1 800 4 600

Augusta-Margaret River (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 11 100 11 100 11 2002007 11 300 11 500 11 7002008 11 400 11 800 12 3002009 11 600 12 200 13 0002010 11 700 12 600 13 6002011 11 900 13 000 14 1002012 12 100 13 300 14 6002013 12 300 13 600 15 1002014 12 500 13 900 15 4002015 12 700 14 200 15 8002016 12 900 14 400 16 1002017 13 100 14 700 16 5002018 13 400 15 000 16 8002019 13 600 15 300 17 1002020 13 800 15 500 17 4002021 14 000 15 800 17 7002022 14 300 16 100 18 1002023 14 500 16 400 18 4002024 14 700 16 600 18 7002025 15 000 16 900 19 0002026 15 200 17 200 19 400

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 6 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Bassendean (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 14 100 14 200 14 2002007 14 100 14 300 14 5002008 14 000 14 400 14 8002009 14 000 14 500 15 2002010 13 900 14 700 15 5002011 13 900 14 800 15 8002012 13 900 14 900 16 0002013 13 900 15 000 16 1002014 14 000 15 100 16 3002015 14 000 15 200 16 4002016 14 100 15 200 16 5002017 14 100 15 300 16 5002018 14 200 15 400 16 6002019 14 200 15 500 16 7002020 14 300 15 500 16 8002021 14 300 15 600 16 9002022 14 400 15 700 17 0002023 14 400 15 700 17 1002024 14 400 15 800 17 2002025 14 500 15 900 17 3002026 14 500 15 900 17 400

Bayswater (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 58 600 58 700 58 7002007 58 800 59 200 59 8002008 59 100 59 900 61 0002009 59 600 60 800 62 6002010 60 000 61 600 64 0002011 60 400 62 300 65 1002012 60 800 62 800 66 0002013 61 200 63 400 66 7002014 61 500 63 800 67 3002015 61 800 64 200 67 8002016 62 000 64 500 68 2002017 62 200 64 900 68 6002018 62 500 65 200 69 0002019 62 700 65 500 69 4002020 62 900 65 800 69 8002021 63 000 66 100 70 3002022 63 200 66 500 70 7002023 63 400 66 800 71 2002024 63 500 67 100 71 6002025 63 700 67 300 72 1002026 63 800 67 600 72 500

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 7 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Belmont (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 31 800 31 900 32 0002007 32 100 32 500 32 8002008 32 500 33 100 33 7002009 33 100 34 000 35 0002010 33 600 34 900 36 1002011 34 000 35 600 37 1002012 34 500 36 200 37 9002013 34 900 36 700 38 5002014 35 300 37 200 39 1002015 35 600 37 600 39 6002016 36 000 38 000 40 0002017 36 300 38 300 40 4002018 36 600 38 700 40 8002019 36 900 39 000 41 2002020 37 200 39 400 41 6002021 37 500 39 700 42 1002022 37 800 40 100 42 5002023 38 100 40 500 43 0002024 38 400 40 800 43 4002025 38 700 41 200 43 9002026 39 000 41 600 44 300

Beverley (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 700 1 700 1 7002007 1 600 1 700 1 7002008 1 600 1 700 1 8002009 1 700 1 700 1 9002010 1 700 1 700 2 0002011 1 700 1 800 2 0002012 1 700 1 800 2 1002013 1 700 1 800 2 1002014 1 700 1 800 2 1002015 1 700 1 800 2 1002016 1 700 1 800 2 1002017 1 700 1 800 2 1002018 1 700 1 800 2 1002019 1 700 1 800 2 2002020 1 700 1 800 2 2002021 1 700 1 800 2 2002022 1 700 1 800 2 2002023 1 700 1 800 2 2002024 1 700 1 800 2 2002025 1 700 1 900 2 2002026 1 700 1 900 2 200

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 8 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Boddington (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 500 1 500 1 5002007 1 400 1 500 1 6002008 1 400 1 500 1 7002009 1 300 1 600 1 8002010 1 300 1 600 1 9002011 1 200 1 600 2 0002012 1 200 1 600 2 0002013 1 200 1 700 2 1002014 1 200 1 700 2 1002015 1 200 1 700 2 2002016 1 300 1 800 2 2002017 1 300 1 800 2 3002018 1 300 1 800 2 3002019 1 300 1 800 2 3002020 1 400 1 900 2 4002021 1 400 1 900 2 4002022 1 400 1 900 2 5002023 1 400 2 000 2 5002024 1 500 2 000 2 5002025 1 500 2 000 2 6002026 1 500 2 100 2 600

Boyup Brook (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 600 1 600 1 6002007 1 600 1 600 1 6002008 1 500 1 600 1 7002009 1 500 1 600 1 7002010 1 500 1 700 1 8002011 1 500 1 700 1 8002012 1 500 1 700 1 9002013 1 500 1 700 1 9002014 1 500 1 800 1 9002015 1 500 1 800 1 9002016 1 500 1 800 2 0002017 1 500 1 800 2 0002018 1 500 1 800 2 0002019 1 500 1 800 2 0002020 1 500 1 800 2 0002021 1 500 1 900 2 1002022 1 500 1 900 2 1002023 1 500 1 900 2 1002024 1 500 1 900 2 1002025 1 500 1 900 2 2002026 1 600 1 900 2 200

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 9 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Bridgetown-Greenbushes (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 4 200 4 200 4 2002007 4 100 4 300 4 4002008 4 000 4 300 4 7002009 3 800 4 500 4 9002010 3 700 4 500 5 2002011 3 700 4 600 5 4002012 3 600 4 700 5 6002013 3 600 4 800 5 8002014 3 600 4 900 5 9002015 3 700 5 000 6 0002016 3 700 5 000 6 1002017 3 800 5 100 6 2002018 3 800 5 200 6 2002019 3 900 5 200 6 3002020 3 900 5 300 6 4002021 3 900 5 300 6 5002022 4 000 5 400 6 6002023 4 000 5 500 6 7002024 4 100 5 500 6 8002025 4 100 5 600 6 8002026 4 100 5 600 6 900

Brookton (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 000 1 100 1 1002007 1 000 1 000 1 1002008 960 1 000 1 1002009 910 990 1 1002010 870 980 1 2002011 840 970 1 2002012 820 950 1 2002013 790 940 1 2002014 770 920 1 2002015 750 900 1 2002016 730 880 1 2002017 710 870 1 1002018 690 850 1 1002019 670 830 1 1002020 650 820 1 1002021 630 800 1 1002022 620 790 1 1002023 600 770 1 1002024 580 760 1 1002025 570 750 1 0002026 560 730 1 000

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 10 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Broome (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 14 100 14 400 14 8002007 14 200 14 800 15 5002008 14 200 15 200 16 6002009 14 200 15 800 17 8002010 14 200 16 300 19 1002011 14 300 16 800 20 1002012 14 500 17 300 21 0002013 14 800 17 700 21 7002014 15 100 18 200 22 2002015 15 400 18 600 22 7002016 15 700 19 000 23 2002017 16 000 19 400 23 6002018 16 400 19 700 24 0002019 16 700 20 100 24 5002020 17 100 20 500 24 9002021 17 400 20 900 25 4002022 17 700 21 300 25 8002023 18 000 21 700 26 3002024 18 400 22 100 26 8002025 18 700 22 500 27 3002026 19 100 23 000 27 700

Broomehill-Tambellup (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 200 1 200 1 2002007 1 200 1 200 1 3002008 1 200 1 200 1 3002009 1 200 1 300 1 3002010 1 100 1 300 1 4002011 1 100 1 300 1 4002012 1 100 1 300 1 4002013 1 100 1 300 1 5002014 1 100 1 300 1 5002015 1 100 1 300 1 5002016 1 100 1 300 1 5002017 1 100 1 300 1 5002018 1 100 1 300 1 5002019 1 100 1 300 1 5002020 1 100 1 300 1 5002021 1 100 1 300 1 6002022 1 100 1 300 1 6002023 1 100 1 400 1 6002024 1 100 1 400 1 6002025 1 100 1 400 1 6002026 1 100 1 400 1 600

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 11 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Bruce Rock (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 000 1 000 1 0002007 950 1 000 1 1002008 890 980 1 1002009 820 970 1 1002010 760 950 1 2002011 700 940 1 2002012 660 920 1 2002013 630 900 1 2002014 600 880 1 2002015 580 860 1 2002016 560 840 1 2002017 540 820 1 1002018 530 800 1 1002019 510 790 1 1002020 500 770 1 1002021 480 750 1 1002022 470 740 1 1002023 460 730 1 1002024 450 710 1 1002025 430 700 1 0002026 430 680 1 000

Bunbury (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 31 600 31 700 31 8002007 31 600 32 100 32 9002008 31 600 32 600 34 2002009 31 600 33 200 35 7002010 31 600 33 800 37 2002011 31 800 34 400 38 4002012 31 900 34 800 39 3002013 32 100 35 300 40 1002014 32 400 35 600 40 7002015 32 600 36 000 41 2002016 32 800 36 200 41 6002017 33 100 36 600 41 9002018 33 300 36 800 42 3002019 33 500 37 100 42 6002020 33 700 37 400 42 9002021 33 900 37 700 43 3002022 34 200 38 000 43 7002023 34 400 38 300 44 1002024 34 500 38 500 44 4002025 34 700 38 800 44 8002026 34 900 39 100 45 200

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 12 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Busselton (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 26 900 26 900 27 0002007 27 700 28 300 28 8002008 28 400 29 800 30 7002009 29 100 31 300 32 7002010 29 700 32 700 34 7002011 30 500 34 200 36 6002012 31 400 35 600 38 3002013 32 400 37 000 40 0002014 33 500 38 400 41 5002015 34 700 39 800 43 2002016 35 900 41 200 44 7002017 37 100 42 500 46 2002018 38 400 44 000 47 7002019 39 600 45 400 49 3002020 40 800 46 800 50 8002021 42 100 48 200 52 4002022 43 400 49 600 53 9002023 44 600 51 000 55 5002024 45 900 52 400 57 0002025 47 200 53 900 58 6002026 48 400 55 300 60 200

Cambridge (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 25 200 25 200 25 2002007 25 400 25 700 25 8002008 25 700 26 100 26 5002009 26 100 26 700 27 2002010 26 300 27 200 27 8002011 26 600 27 600 28 3002012 26 800 27 900 28 8002013 27 100 28 200 29 1002014 27 300 28 500 29 4002015 27 500 28 700 29 7002016 27 700 28 900 30 0002017 27 800 29 100 30 2002018 28 000 29 300 30 5002019 28 200 29 500 30 7002020 28 400 29 800 31 0002021 28 500 30 000 31 3002022 28 700 30 200 31 5002023 28 900 30 400 31 8002024 29 000 30 600 32 1002025 29 200 30 800 32 3002026 29 400 31 000 32 600

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 13 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Canning (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 81 500 81 600 81 7002007 82 000 83 000 84 1002008 82 500 84 500 86 8002009 83 400 86 700 90 2002010 84 400 88 700 93 5002011 85 400 90 500 96 2002012 86 400 92 100 98 4002013 87 400 93 400 100 3002014 88 200 94 600 101 7002015 89 100 95 600 103 0002016 89 900 96 600 104 1002017 90 700 97 500 105 1002018 91 400 98 400 106 2002019 92 200 99 300 107 3002020 93 000 100 200 108 4002021 93 700 101 200 109 5002022 94 400 102 100 110 6002023 95 200 103 000 111 8002024 95 900 103 900 113 0002025 96 500 104 800 114 0002026 97 300 105 700 115 200

Capel (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 10 700 10 800 10 8002007 10 900 11 400 11 9002008 11 200 12 100 13 1002009 11 400 12 900 14 6002010 11 700 13 600 15 9002011 12 000 14 400 17 1002012 12 500 15 100 18 2002013 13 000 15 900 19 2002014 13 600 16 600 20 1002015 14 200 17 300 21 0002016 14 900 18 000 21 8002017 15 500 18 800 22 6002018 16 200 19 500 23 5002019 16 900 20 200 24 2002020 17 600 21 000 25 1002021 18 300 21 800 26 0002022 19 000 22 600 26 9002023 19 700 23 400 27 8002024 20 500 24 200 28 7002025 21 300 25 100 29 6002026 22 100 25 900 30 600

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 14 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Carnamah (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 800 800 8002007 750 800 8502008 710 790 8802009 660 790 9202010 640 810 9702011 620 820 1 0002012 610 820 1 0002013 600 820 1 0002014 600 820 1 0002015 600 820 1 0002016 600 820 1 0002017 600 810 1 0002018 590 810 1 0002019 590 800 1 0002020 590 800 1 0002021 590 790 1 0002022 580 790 1 0002023 580 790 1 0002024 570 790 1 0002025 570 780 1 0002026 570 780 1 000

Carnarvon (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 6 100 6 200 6 3002007 5 800 6 100 6 4002008 5 600 6 000 6 7002009 5 300 6 000 7 1002010 5 000 6 000 7 5002011 4 800 6 000 7 7002012 4 600 5 900 7 8002013 4 500 5 800 7 8002014 4 300 5 700 7 8002015 4 200 5 600 7 7002016 4 100 5 500 7 6002017 4 000 5 400 7 4002018 3 900 5 300 7 3002019 3 700 5 200 7 2002020 3 600 5 000 7 1002021 3 500 4 900 7 0002022 3 400 4 800 6 8002023 3 200 4 700 6 8002024 3 100 4 600 6 7002025 3 000 4 500 6 5002026 2 900 4 400 6 500

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 15 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Chapman Valley (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 950 960 9602007 930 980 1 0002008 920 1 000 1 1002009 890 1 000 1 2002010 870 1 100 1 3002011 860 1 100 1 3002012 850 1 100 1 4002013 860 1 100 1 4002014 870 1 200 1 5002015 880 1 200 1 5002016 900 1 200 1 6002017 920 1 200 1 6002018 940 1 300 1 6002019 960 1 300 1 6002020 980 1 300 1 7002021 1 000 1 400 1 7002022 1 000 1 400 1 7002023 1 000 1 400 1 8002024 1 100 1 400 1 8002025 1 100 1 500 1 8002026 1 100 1 500 1 900

Chittering (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 3 700 3 700 3 7002007 3 800 3 900 4 1002008 3 800 4 100 4 4002009 3 900 4 300 4 8002010 3 900 4 500 5 1002011 4 000 4 800 5 4002012 4 100 5 000 5 7002013 4 300 5 200 6 0002014 4 500 5 400 6 3002015 4 700 5 700 6 6002016 4 900 5 900 6 8002017 5 200 6 200 7 1002018 5 400 6 400 7 4002019 5 600 6 700 7 6002020 5 900 6 900 7 9002021 6 100 7 200 8 2002022 6 400 7 500 8 5002023 6 600 7 700 8 7002024 6 900 8 000 9 0002025 7 100 8 300 9 3002026 7 400 8 500 9 600

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 16 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Claremont (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 9 500 9 500 9 5002007 9 500 9 600 9 7002008 9 400 9 700 9 9002009 9 400 9 800 10 1002010 9 300 9 800 10 2002011 9 300 9 900 10 3002012 9 300 9 900 10 3002013 9 300 9 900 10 4002014 9 300 10 000 10 4002015 9 300 10 000 10 5002016 9 300 10 000 10 5002017 9 300 10 000 10 5002018 9 400 10 000 10 6002019 9 400 10 100 10 6002020 9 400 10 100 10 6002021 9 400 10 100 10 7002022 9 400 10 100 10 7002023 9 400 10 100 10 7002024 9 300 10 100 10 8002025 9 300 10 100 10 8002026 9 300 10 100 10 800

Cockburn (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 78 400 78 500 78 6002007 80 100 81 000 81 9002008 82 200 83 900 85 7002009 84 900 87 600 90 6002010 87 500 91 100 95 2002011 90 000 94 400 99 4002012 92 300 97 400 103 2002013 94 500 100 100 106 4002014 96 700 102 700 109 5002015 98 800 105 100 112 2002016 100 900 107 300 114 8002017 102 900 109 600 117 3002018 104 900 111 800 119 9002019 106 900 114 100 122 4002020 109 000 116 500 125 1002021 111 100 118 800 127 8002022 113 100 121 200 130 4002023 115 300 123 600 133 2002024 117 500 126 100 136 0002025 119 700 128 500 138 8002026 121 900 131 000 141 600

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 17 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Collie (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 9 100 9 100 9 1002007 9 000 9 100 9 3002008 8 900 9 100 9 5002009 8 800 9 200 9 8002010 8 700 9 300 10 1002011 8 600 9 300 10 3002012 8 500 9 300 10 5002013 8 400 9 400 10 6002014 8 400 9 400 10 7002015 8 300 9 400 10 8002016 8 300 9 400 10 8002017 8 200 9 400 10 9002018 8 200 9 400 10 9002019 8 100 9 300 11 0002020 8 100 9 300 11 0002021 8 000 9 300 11 0002022 8 000 9 300 11 1002023 7 900 9 300 11 1002024 7 900 9 300 11 2002025 7 800 9 300 11 2002026 7 800 9 300 11 200

Coolgardie (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 4 000 4 100 4 1002007 3 800 4 100 4 3002008 3 700 4 100 4 6002009 3 500 4 200 5 0002010 3 400 4 300 5 3002011 3 400 4 400 5 6002012 3 300 4 400 5 7002013 3 300 4 400 5 8002014 3 200 4 400 5 9002015 3 100 4 400 5 8002016 3 100 4 300 5 8002017 3 000 4 300 5 8002018 2 900 4 300 5 7002019 2 900 4 200 5 7002020 2 800 4 100 5 6002021 2 700 4 100 5 6002022 2 700 4 100 5 6002023 2 600 4 000 5 6002024 2 500 4 000 5 6002025 2 500 3 900 5 5002026 2 400 3 900 5 500

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 18 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Coorow (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 300 1 300 1 3002007 1 100 1 200 1 3002008 1 000 1 200 1 4002009 880 1 100 1 5002010 760 1 100 1 5002011 670 1 100 1 6002012 590 1 000 1 6002013 540 1 000 1 6002014 490 970 1 6002015 450 930 1 5002016 420 890 1 5002017 400 850 1 5002018 380 810 1 4002019 360 780 1 4002020 340 740 1 3002021 330 710 1 3002022 320 690 1 3002023 310 660 1 3002024 310 640 1 2002025 300 620 1 2002026 300 600 1 200

Corrigin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 200 1 200 1 2002007 1 200 1 200 1 3002008 1 100 1 300 1 3002009 1 100 1 300 1 4002010 1 100 1 300 1 4002011 1 000 1 300 1 4002012 1 000 1 300 1 5002013 1 000 1 400 1 5002014 990 1 400 1 5002015 990 1 400 1 5002016 990 1 400 1 5002017 990 1 400 1 6002018 990 1 400 1 6002019 990 1 400 1 6002020 990 1 400 1 6002021 990 1 400 1 6002022 990 1 400 1 6002023 980 1 400 1 6002024 980 1 400 1 6002025 980 1 400 1 6002026 980 1 400 1 600

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 19 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Cottesloe (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 7 800 7 800 7 8002007 7 800 7 900 8 0002008 7 800 8 000 8 2002009 7 900 8 100 8 4002010 7 900 8 200 8 5002011 7 900 8 300 8 7002012 8 000 8 400 8 8002013 8 000 8 500 8 9002014 8 100 8 500 8 9002015 8 100 8 600 9 0002016 8 100 8 600 9 0002017 8 200 8 600 9 1002018 8 200 8 700 9 1002019 8 200 8 700 9 2002020 8 200 8 700 9 2002021 8 300 8 800 9 3002022 8 300 8 800 9 4002023 8 300 8 900 9 4002024 8 300 8 900 9 5002025 8 300 8 900 9 5002026 8 300 9 000 9 600

Cranbrook (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 100 1 100 1 1002007 1 100 1 100 1 2002008 1 100 1 200 1 3002009 1 000 1 200 1 4002010 1 000 1 200 1 4002011 980 1 200 1 5002012 960 1 200 1 5002013 950 1 200 1 6002014 930 1 200 1 6002015 920 1 200 1 6002016 920 1 200 1 6002017 910 1 200 1 6002018 900 1 200 1 6002019 890 1 200 1 6002020 880 1 200 1 6002021 870 1 200 1 6002022 860 1 200 1 6002023 850 1 200 1 6002024 830 1 200 1 6002025 820 1 200 1 6002026 810 1 200 1 600

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 20 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Cuballing (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 820 820 8202007 790 820 8602008 760 820 8902009 740 830 9402010 720 840 9802011 700 850 1 0002012 690 860 1 0002013 690 860 1 1002014 680 860 1 1002015 680 870 1 1002016 680 870 1 1002017 680 870 1 1002018 680 870 1 1002019 670 870 1 1002020 670 870 1 1002021 670 870 1 1002022 670 870 1 1002023 670 870 1 1002024 670 870 1 1002025 670 880 1 1002026 670 880 1 100

Cue (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 350 360 3702007 310 340 3702008 280 320 3702009 250 310 3702010 230 300 3802011 210 290 3702012 200 280 3602013 190 270 3402014 190 260 3302015 180 250 3202016 180 240 3002017 180 230 2902018 170 220 2802019 170 220 2802020 170 220 2802021 170 220 2802022 170 220 2802023 170 220 2802024 170 220 2802025 170 220 2802026 170 220 280

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 21 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Cunderdin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 300 1 300 1 3002007 1 300 1 300 1 3002008 1 200 1 200 1 3002009 1 100 1 200 1 3002010 1 100 1 200 1 3002011 1 000 1 100 1 3002012 950 1 100 1 3002013 910 1 000 1 3002014 860 1 000 1 3002015 820 960 1 2002016 780 920 1 2002017 740 890 1 2002018 700 850 1 1002019 670 810 1 1002020 630 780 1 1002021 600 750 1 0002022 580 720 1 0002023 550 690 9702024 530 670 9402025 510 650 9202026 490 630 890

Dalwallinu (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 400 1 500 1 5002007 1 300 1 400 1 5002008 1 200 1 400 1 6002009 1 000 1 300 1 6002010 900 1 300 1 7002011 790 1 300 1 7002012 710 1 200 1 7002013 640 1 200 1 7002014 590 1 200 1 7002015 550 1 100 1 7002016 520 1 100 1 7002017 500 1 100 1 7002018 470 1 000 1 6002019 450 990 1 6002020 430 960 1 6002021 410 930 1 6002022 390 900 1 6002023 380 870 1 5002024 360 850 1 5002025 350 820 1 5002026 340 800 1 500

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 22 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Dandaragan (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 3 000 3 000 3 0002007 3 000 3 100 3 2002008 3 000 3 200 3 3002009 3 000 3 200 3 4002010 3 100 3 300 3 5002011 3 100 3 400 3 7002012 3 100 3 400 3 7002013 3 200 3 500 3 8002014 3 200 3 600 3 9002015 3 300 3 600 4 0002016 3 300 3 700 4 0002017 3 400 3 700 4 1002018 3 400 3 800 4 2002019 3 500 3 800 4 2002020 3 500 3 900 4 3002021 3 600 4 000 4 3002022 3 600 4 000 4 4002023 3 600 4 100 4 5002024 3 700 4 100 4 5002025 3 700 4 200 4 6002026 3 800 4 200 4 700

Dardanup (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 10 900 10 900 10 9002007 11 000 11 500 11 9002008 11 100 12 000 12 8002009 11 100 12 500 13 9002010 11 200 13 100 14 9002011 11 400 13 700 15 8002012 11 700 14 200 16 6002013 12 000 14 800 17 4002014 12 500 15 400 18 1002015 13 000 16 000 18 8002016 13 500 16 600 19 5002017 14 100 17 200 20 2002018 14 700 17 900 20 9002019 15 300 18 500 21 6002020 15 800 19 100 22 3002021 16 400 19 800 23 0002022 17 000 20 400 23 7002023 17 600 21 100 24 4002024 18 200 21 700 25 1002025 18 700 22 400 25 9002026 19 300 23 000 26 600

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 23 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Denmark (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 4 800 4 800 4 8002007 4 800 5 000 5 1002008 4 900 5 100 5 4002009 4 800 5 300 5 7002010 4 800 5 400 6 0002011 4 900 5 600 6 2002012 4 900 5 700 6 5002013 5 000 5 800 6 7002014 5 100 6 000 6 8002015 5 200 6 100 7 0002016 5 400 6 300 7 2002017 5 500 6 400 7 3002018 5 600 6 600 7 5002019 5 700 6 700 7 7002020 5 900 6 900 7 8002021 6 000 7 000 8 0002022 6 100 7 200 8 1002023 6 200 7 300 8 3002024 6 300 7 400 8 5002025 6 500 7 600 8 6002026 6 600 7 700 8 800

Derby-West Kimberley (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 7 100 7 500 7 9002007 6 700 7 500 8 1002008 5 900 7 500 8 5002009 5 100 7 500 9 0002010 4 500 7 500 9 5002011 4 100 7 600 10 0002012 3 800 7 600 10 3002013 3 500 7 600 10 5002014 3 300 7 600 10 6002015 3 200 7 600 10 7002016 3 100 7 600 10 7002017 3 000 7 500 10 8002018 2 900 7 500 10 7002019 2 800 7 500 10 7002020 2 600 7 400 10 8002021 2 500 7 400 10 7002022 2 400 7 300 10 8002023 2 300 7 300 10 8002024 2 200 7 200 10 8002025 2 100 7 200 10 7002026 2 000 7 100 10 700

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 24 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Donnybrook-Balingup (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 5 000 5 000 5 0002007 5 000 5 100 5 2002008 5 000 5 200 5 4002009 4 900 5 300 5 6002010 4 900 5 400 5 8002011 4 900 5 400 6 0002012 5 000 5 500 6 2002013 5 000 5 600 6 3002014 5 000 5 700 6 4002015 5 000 5 700 6 5002016 5 100 5 800 6 6002017 5 100 5 800 6 6002018 5 200 5 900 6 7002019 5 200 6 000 6 8002020 5 200 6 000 6 9002021 5 300 6 100 6 9002022 5 300 6 100 7 0002023 5 400 6 200 7 1002024 5 400 6 200 7 2002025 5 400 6 300 7 2002026 5 500 6 300 7 300

Dowerin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 740 740 7402007 700 740 7602008 660 730 7902009 620 740 8202010 570 730 8402011 540 730 8602012 500 710 8602013 480 700 8602014 460 690 8502015 440 670 8402016 420 650 8202017 410 640 8102018 390 620 7902019 380 600 7802020 370 590 7702021 350 580 7502022 340 570 7402023 330 550 7302024 320 540 7302025 310 530 7102026 300 520 710

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 25 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Dumbleyung (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 680 680 6902007 650 670 6902008 610 670 6902009 570 660 6902010 530 650 6902011 500 640 6902012 470 630 6802013 450 620 6702014 430 600 6602015 410 590 6502016 400 570 6302017 390 560 6202018 380 550 6102019 370 540 6002020 360 520 5902021 340 510 5802022 340 500 5702023 330 490 5602024 320 480 5602025 320 470 5502026 310 470 540

Dundas (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 100 1 200 1 2002007 1 000 1 100 1 2002008 930 1 100 1 2002009 800 1 100 1 3002010 700 1 100 1 3002011 640 1 100 1 3002012 620 1 100 1 3002013 600 1 100 1 3002014 600 1 100 1 3002015 600 1 000 1 3002016 600 1 000 1 3002017 600 990 1 2002018 580 970 1 2002019 570 940 1 2002020 550 920 1 2002021 540 900 1 2002022 520 890 1 2002023 510 870 1 2002024 490 850 1 2002025 480 840 1 2002026 470 820 1 100

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 26 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

East Fremantle (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 7 100 7 100 7 1002007 7 100 7 200 7 4002008 7 100 7 300 7 6002009 7 100 7 400 7 8002010 7 100 7 500 8 0002011 7 100 7 600 8 2002012 7 100 7 700 8 3002013 7 200 7 700 8 4002014 7 300 7 800 8 5002015 7 300 7 900 8 6002016 7 400 8 000 8 6002017 7 400 8 000 8 7002018 7 500 8 100 8 8002019 7 500 8 100 8 8002020 7 600 8 200 8 9002021 7 600 8 300 9 0002022 7 700 8 300 9 1002023 7 700 8 400 9 1002024 7 800 8 500 9 2002025 7 800 8 500 9 3002026 7 900 8 600 9 400

East Pilbara (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 7 000 7 200 7 3002007 6 900 7 400 7 7002008 6 600 7 700 8 3002009 6 400 8 100 9 0002010 6 200 8 500 9 7002011 6 100 8 800 10 2002012 6 100 9 100 10 7002013 6 100 9 400 11 0002014 6 300 9 600 11 3002015 6 400 9 700 11 5002016 6 600 9 900 11 7002017 6 800 10 000 11 8002018 7 000 10 200 12 0002019 7 100 10 300 12 2002020 7 300 10 400 12 3002021 7 400 10 600 12 5002022 7 500 10 700 12 7002023 7 700 10 900 12 9002024 7 800 11 000 13 1002025 7 900 11 100 13 2002026 8 000 11 300 13 400

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 27 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Esperance (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 13 700 13 800 13 8002007 13 700 13 900 14 1002008 13 600 14 000 14 5002009 13 500 14 300 15 0002010 13 500 14 600 15 5002011 13 500 14 800 16 0002012 13 500 15 000 16 3002013 13 500 15 100 16 6002014 13 500 15 200 16 8002015 13 500 15 300 17 0002016 13 600 15 400 17 1002017 13 600 15 500 17 3002018 13 600 15 500 17 4002019 13 600 15 600 17 5002020 13 600 15 700 17 6002021 13 600 15 700 17 7002022 13 600 15 800 17 8002023 13 600 15 800 18 0002024 13 600 15 900 18 1002025 13 600 15 900 18 2002026 13 600 16 000 18 300

Exmouth (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 2 200 2 200 2 2002007 2 200 2 200 2 3002008 2 200 2 300 2 4002009 2 200 2 400 2 6002010 2 200 2 400 2 7002011 2 200 2 400 2 8002012 2 200 2 500 2 9002013 2 200 2 500 2 9002014 2 200 2 500 2 9002015 2 200 2 500 3 0002016 2 200 2 500 3 0002017 2 200 2 500 3 0002018 2 200 2 500 3 0002019 2 200 2 500 3 0002020 2 200 2 500 3 0002021 2 200 2 500 3 0002022 2 100 2 500 3 0002023 2 100 2 500 3 1002024 2 100 2 500 3 1002025 2 100 2 500 3 1002026 2 100 2 500 3 100

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 28 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Fremantle (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 26 300 26 300 26 4002007 26 400 26 800 27 2002008 26 500 27 200 28 1002009 26 600 27 800 29 0002010 26 700 28 300 29 9002011 26 900 28 700 30 6002012 27 200 29 100 31 2002013 27 500 29 500 31 8002014 27 800 29 900 32 2002015 28 100 30 200 32 6002016 28 400 30 600 32 9002017 28 700 30 900 33 2002018 29 000 31 200 33 6002019 29 200 31 500 33 9002020 29 500 31 800 34 3002021 29 800 32 100 34 7002022 30 000 32 500 35 0002023 30 300 32 800 35 4002024 30 600 33 100 35 8002025 30 800 33 400 36 2002026 31 100 33 700 36 500

Gingin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 4 600 4 600 4 6002007 4 600 4 700 4 8002008 4 600 4 700 5 0002009 4 600 4 800 5 3002010 4 700 4 900 5 6002011 4 700 5 000 5 7002012 4 700 5 000 5 9002013 4 800 5 100 6 0002014 4 800 5 100 6 1002015 4 800 5 200 6 1002016 4 900 5 200 6 2002017 4 900 5 200 6 2002018 4 900 5 300 6 2002019 4 900 5 300 6 3002020 4 900 5 300 6 3002021 4 900 5 400 6 3002022 5 000 5 400 6 4002023 5 000 5 400 6 4002024 5 000 5 400 6 4002025 5 000 5 500 6 5002026 5 000 5 500 6 500

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 29 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Gnowangerup (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 400 1 500 1 5002007 1 400 1 400 1 5002008 1 400 1 400 1 5002009 1 300 1 400 1 6002010 1 300 1 400 1 6002011 1 200 1 400 1 6002012 1 200 1 400 1 6002013 1 200 1 400 1 6002014 1 100 1 400 1 6002015 1 100 1 400 1 6002016 1 100 1 400 1 6002017 1 100 1 300 1 6002018 1 000 1 300 1 6002019 1 000 1 300 1 6002020 990 1 300 1 5002021 970 1 300 1 5002022 950 1 200 1 5002023 920 1 200 1 5002024 900 1 200 1 5002025 880 1 200 1 5002026 860 1 200 1 500

Goomalling (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 980 980 9902007 960 1 000 1 0002008 960 1 000 1 1002009 940 1 000 1 1002010 940 1 100 1 2002011 930 1 100 1 2002012 930 1 100 1 2002013 940 1 100 1 3002014 950 1 100 1 3002015 960 1 100 1 3002016 970 1 200 1 3002017 980 1 200 1 4002018 990 1 200 1 4002019 1 000 1 200 1 4002020 1 000 1 200 1 4002021 1 000 1 200 1 5002022 1 000 1 300 1 5002023 1 000 1 300 1 5002024 1 100 1 300 1 5002025 1 100 1 300 1 5002026 1 100 1 300 1 600

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 30 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Gosnells (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 95 500 95 700 95 9002007 95 800 98 000 100 2002008 96 400 100 800 105 3002009 97 600 104 600 111 9002010 98 800 108 400 118 2002011 100 100 111 700 123 7002012 101 400 114 500 128 1002013 102 700 117 000 131 8002014 103 900 119 100 135 1002015 105 200 121 000 137 4002016 106 300 122 600 139 7002017 107 400 124 200 141 7002018 108 500 125 700 143 8002019 109 700 127 300 145 8002020 110 800 128 800 147 8002021 112 000 130 500 150 2002022 113 200 132 100 152 3002023 114 500 133 900 154 6002024 115 800 135 600 156 9002025 117 000 137 200 159 2002026 118 200 139 000 161 300

Greater Geraldton (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 35 800 36 100 36 3002007 36 200 36 800 37 4002008 36 400 37 600 38 8002009 36 800 38 700 40 6002010 37 100 39 700 42 3002011 37 500 40 600 43 8002012 38 000 41 500 45 2002013 38 500 42 400 46 3002014 39 000 43 100 47 4002015 39 600 43 900 48 3002016 40 100 44 600 49 3002017 40 700 45 300 50 1002018 41 300 46 100 51 0002019 41 900 46 800 51 8002020 42 500 47 500 52 7002021 43 100 48 300 53 6002022 43 800 49 000 54 6002023 44 400 49 800 55 5002024 45 000 50 600 56 4002025 45 700 51 300 57 3002026 46 300 52 100 58 200

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 31 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Halls Creek (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 3 500 3 700 3 9002007 3 300 3 600 3 9002008 3 100 3 600 4 1002009 2 800 3 500 4 3002010 2 600 3 500 4 5002011 2 500 3 400 4 7002012 2 400 3 400 4 8002013 2 300 3 400 4 9002014 2 200 3 400 5 0002015 2 100 3 300 5 0002016 2 000 3 300 5 0002017 2 000 3 200 5 0002018 1 900 3 200 5 0002019 1 800 3 200 5 0002020 1 700 3 100 5 0002021 1 700 3 100 4 9002022 1 600 3 000 4 9002023 1 500 3 000 4 9002024 1 500 2 900 4 9002025 1 400 2 800 4 9002026 1 400 2 800 4 900

Harvey (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 20 600 20 600 20 6002007 20 200 21 300 22 3002008 19 600 22 000 24 0002009 18 800 22 600 25 8002010 18 100 23 200 27 6002011 17 600 23 900 29 1002012 17 500 24 500 30 4002013 17 500 25 200 31 5002014 17 800 25 900 32 5002015 18 300 26 600 33 5002016 18 800 27 300 34 4002017 19 300 28 000 35 2002018 19 900 28 700 36 1002019 20 400 29 400 37 0002020 21 000 30 100 37 9002021 21 500 30 900 38 7002022 21 900 31 600 39 6002023 22 500 32 300 40 5002024 23 000 33 000 41 4002025 23 600 33 700 42 3002026 24 100 34 400 43 100

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 32 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Irwin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 3 200 3 200 3 3002007 3 100 3 400 3 5002008 3 100 3 500 3 8002009 2 900 3 600 4 1002010 2 800 3 700 4 3002011 2 700 3 800 4 6002012 2 700 3 900 4 8002013 2 700 4 000 4 9002014 2 700 4 100 5 1002015 2 800 4 200 5 2002016 2 800 4 300 5 3002017 2 900 4 400 5 4002018 3 000 4 500 5 6002019 3 100 4 600 5 7002020 3 100 4 700 5 8002021 3 200 4 800 5 9002022 3 300 4 900 6 0002023 3 300 5 000 6 1002024 3 400 5 100 6 3002025 3 500 5 200 6 4002026 3 500 5 300 6 500

Jerramungup (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 200 1 200 1 2002007 1 200 1 200 1 2002008 1 100 1 200 1 3002009 1 100 1 200 1 3002010 1 000 1 200 1 4002011 1 000 1 200 1 4002012 970 1 200 1 4002013 940 1 200 1 4002014 920 1 100 1 4002015 900 1 100 1 4002016 880 1 100 1 4002017 850 1 100 1 4002018 840 1 100 1 3002019 820 1 100 1 3002020 800 1 000 1 3002021 780 1 000 1 3002022 760 1 000 1 3002023 740 990 1 3002024 730 980 1 3002025 710 970 1 3002026 700 950 1 300

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 33 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Joondalup (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 157 800 157 900 157 9002007 157 900 159 500 161 1002008 158 100 161 200 164 6002009 158 500 163 500 169 0002010 159 100 165 800 173 3002011 159 700 167 900 176 9002012 160 500 169 700 180 0002013 161 300 171 400 182 6002014 162 100 172 900 184 8002015 162 900 174 300 186 9002016 163 800 175 600 188 6002017 164 600 176 800 190 4002018 165 400 178 100 192 0002019 166 200 179 400 193 7002020 167 100 180 700 195 5002021 168 000 181 900 197 4002022 168 800 183 200 199 2002023 169 700 184 600 201 0002024 170 600 185 800 202 8002025 171 500 187 100 204 5002026 172 200 188 400 206 200

Kalamunda (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 51 800 51 900 51 9002007 51 900 52 500 53 2002008 52 000 53 300 54 7002009 52 400 54 400 56 7002010 52 700 55 400 58 5002011 53 000 56 300 60 1002012 53 300 57 000 61 3002013 53 500 57 700 62 3002014 53 800 58 200 63 1002015 54 000 58 600 63 8002016 54 200 58 900 64 3002017 54 400 59 300 64 8002018 54 600 59 600 65 3002019 54 700 59 900 65 8002020 54 900 60 300 66 3002021 55 100 60 600 66 8002022 55 300 61 000 67 4002023 55 400 61 300 67 9002024 55 600 61 700 68 4002025 55 800 62 000 68 8002026 56 000 62 300 69 400

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 34 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Kalgoorlie/Boulder (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 30 200 30 400 30 6002007 30 100 30 600 31 3002008 30 100 31 000 32 2002009 30 200 31 600 33 6002010 30 300 32 200 34 8002011 30 400 32 600 35 7002012 30 400 32 900 36 4002013 30 400 33 100 36 9002014 30 300 33 300 37 2002015 30 200 33 300 37 4002016 30 100 33 400 37 6002017 29 900 33 400 37 6002018 29 800 33 300 37 7002019 29 700 33 300 37 8002020 29 600 33 300 37 9002021 29 400 33 300 38 0002022 29 300 33 200 38 1002023 29 100 33 200 38 2002024 29 000 33 200 38 3002025 28 800 33 200 38 4002026 28 700 33 200 38 500

Katanning (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 4 500 4 500 4 5002007 4 400 4 500 4 7002008 4 300 4 600 4 8002009 4 200 4 600 5 0002010 4 100 4 700 5 2002011 4 000 4 700 5 3002012 4 000 4 700 5 4002013 3 900 4 800 5 5002014 3 900 4 800 5 5002015 3 900 4 800 5 5002016 3 900 4 800 5 5002017 3 800 4 700 5 5002018 3 800 4 700 5 5002019 3 800 4 700 5 5002020 3 800 4 700 5 5002021 3 700 4 700 5 5002022 3 700 4 700 5 5002023 3 700 4 700 5 5002024 3 600 4 600 5 5002025 3 600 4 600 5 5002026 3 600 4 600 5 500

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 35 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Kellerberrin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 200 1 200 1 3002007 1 200 1 300 1 3002008 1 200 1 300 1 4002009 1 100 1 300 1 4002010 1 100 1 300 1 5002011 1 000 1 300 1 5002012 1 000 1 300 1 5002013 1 000 1 300 1 6002014 1 000 1 300 1 6002015 990 1 300 1 6002016 990 1 300 1 6002017 980 1 300 1 6002018 980 1 300 1 6002019 980 1 300 1 6002020 970 1 300 1 6002021 960 1 300 1 6002022 960 1 300 1 6002023 950 1 300 1 6002024 940 1 300 1 6002025 930 1 300 1 6002026 920 1 300 1 600

Kent (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 600 600 6002007 560 600 6402008 510 600 6802009 460 590 7202010 410 590 7602011 380 580 7902012 340 580 8202013 320 570 8302014 300 560 8402015 290 560 8402016 280 550 8402017 270 540 8402018 260 530 8302019 250 530 8402020 250 520 8302021 240 510 8302022 240 510 8302023 230 500 8302024 230 500 8402025 220 490 8302026 220 490 840

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 36 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Kojonup (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 2 300 2 300 2 3002007 2 200 2 300 2 4002008 2 200 2 300 2 4002009 2 100 2 300 2 5002010 2 000 2 300 2 6002011 2 000 2 300 2 6002012 1 900 2 300 2 7002013 1 900 2 300 2 7002014 1 900 2 300 2 7002015 1 800 2 300 2 7002016 1 800 2 200 2 7002017 1 800 2 200 2 6002018 1 700 2 200 2 6002019 1 700 2 100 2 6002020 1 700 2 100 2 6002021 1 600 2 100 2 6002022 1 600 2 100 2 5002023 1 600 2 000 2 5002024 1 500 2 000 2 5002025 1 500 2 000 2 5002026 1 500 1 900 2 500

Kondinin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 000 1 000 1 1002007 980 1 000 1 1002008 930 1 100 1 1002009 880 1 100 1 2002010 830 1 100 1 3002011 790 1 100 1 3002012 760 1 100 1 3002013 730 1 100 1 3002014 710 1 100 1 3002015 700 1 000 1 3002016 690 1 000 1 3002017 670 1 000 1 3002018 660 1 000 1 3002019 650 990 1 3002020 630 980 1 3002021 620 970 1 3002022 600 950 1 3002023 590 940 1 3002024 570 930 1 2002025 560 920 1 2002026 540 910 1 200

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 37 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Koorda (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 470 470 4802007 450 480 5002008 430 480 5102009 400 480 5302010 380 480 5502011 370 480 5702012 360 480 5802013 350 490 5902014 350 490 5902015 350 490 5902016 350 490 6002017 360 490 6002018 360 500 6002019 360 500 6102020 360 500 6102021 360 500 6102022 370 500 6202023 370 510 6202024 370 510 6202025 370 510 6302026 370 510 630

Kulin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 930 940 9402007 890 930 9702008 840 920 1 0002009 810 920 1 0002010 770 920 1 1002011 740 920 1 1002012 710 910 1 1002013 690 910 1 1002014 670 900 1 1002015 660 890 1 1002016 650 880 1 1002017 640 870 1 1002018 620 860 1 1002019 610 860 1 1002020 600 850 1 1002021 590 840 1 1002022 580 830 1 1002023 570 820 1 1002024 560 810 1 1002025 550 810 1 1002026 540 800 1 100

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 38 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Kwinana (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 24 200 24 200 24 3002007 24 900 25 500 26 2002008 25 700 26 900 28 2002009 26 500 28 500 30 4002010 27 300 30 000 32 6002011 28 200 31 500 34 6002012 29 200 32 900 36 4002013 30 300 34 200 38 1002014 31 500 35 600 39 6002015 32 700 36 900 41 1002016 33 900 38 300 42 5002017 35 200 39 600 43 9002018 36 400 40 900 45 3002019 37 700 42 300 46 7002020 39 000 43 600 48 2002021 40 200 45 000 49 6002022 41 500 46 400 51 1002023 42 800 47 700 52 5002024 44 100 49 100 54 1002025 45 400 50 500 55 5002026 46 800 51 900 57 000

Lake Grace (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 600 1 600 1 6002007 1 500 1 500 1 6002008 1 400 1 500 1 6002009 1 300 1 500 1 6002010 1 300 1 500 1 7002011 1 200 1 400 1 7002012 1 100 1 400 1 7002013 1 100 1 400 1 7002014 1 100 1 400 1 7002015 1 000 1 300 1 7002016 980 1 300 1 7002017 950 1 300 1 6002018 920 1 200 1 6002019 880 1 200 1 6002020 850 1 200 1 5002021 820 1 200 1 5002022 790 1 100 1 5002023 750 1 100 1 5002024 720 1 100 1 4002025 690 1 000 1 4002026 660 1 000 1 400

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 39 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Laverton (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 790 820 8502007 730 820 9102008 650 820 9902009 570 810 1 1002010 510 800 1 1002011 480 810 1 2002012 470 820 1 2002013 480 820 1 2002014 490 840 1 2002015 520 850 1 2002016 540 870 1 2002017 570 890 1 2002018 590 910 1 3002019 610 920 1 3002020 620 940 1 3002021 630 960 1 3002022 650 970 1 3002023 660 990 1 3002024 670 1 000 1 3002025 680 1 000 1 4002026 690 1 000 1 400

Leonora (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 500 1 500 1 5002007 1 400 1 500 1 7002008 1 200 1 600 1 9002009 1 000 1 600 2 0002010 900 1 500 2 1002011 820 1 500 2 2002012 780 1 500 2 2002013 770 1 500 2 2002014 780 1 500 2 2002015 780 1 500 2 2002016 800 1 500 2 2002017 810 1 500 2 2002018 820 1 500 2 2002019 820 1 500 2 1002020 810 1 500 2 2002021 790 1 500 2 2002022 790 1 500 2 2002023 780 1 500 2 2002024 760 1 500 2 2002025 750 1 500 2 2002026 740 1 500 2 200

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 40 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Mandurah (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 59 200 59 300 59 4002007 60 700 62 800 63 7002008 62 100 66 300 68 1002009 63 100 70 000 72 9002010 64 400 73 600 77 6002011 66 200 77 300 82 0002012 68 300 80 900 86 3002013 70 800 84 400 90 4002014 73 800 88 000 94 3002015 76 800 91 600 98 2002016 80 100 95 100 102 0002017 83 500 98 700 105 7002018 86 500 102 200 109 5002019 89 800 105 800 113 2002020 93 000 109 300 117 0002021 96 200 112 800 120 8002022 99 300 116 300 124 5002023 102 600 119 900 128 3002024 105 700 123 400 132 1002025 109 000 126 900 135 8002026 112 200 130 400 139 500

Manjimup (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 9 800 9 800 9 8002007 9 700 9 800 10 0002008 9 500 9 900 10 2002009 9 400 10 000 10 5002010 9 300 10 100 10 8002011 9 200 10 100 11 1002012 9 200 10 200 11 3002013 9 200 10 300 11 4002014 9 100 10 300 11 6002015 9 100 10 400 11 7002016 9 100 10 500 11 8002017 9 100 10 500 11 9002018 9 100 10 600 12 0002019 9 100 10 600 12 1002020 9 100 10 700 12 2002021 9 200 10 700 12 3002022 9 200 10 800 12 4002023 9 100 10 800 12 5002024 9 100 10 800 12 6002025 9 100 10 900 12 7002026 9 200 10 900 12 700

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 41 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Meekatharra (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 200 1 300 1 3002007 1 200 1 300 1 3002008 1 100 1 200 1 3002009 960 1 200 1 3002010 860 1 200 1 3002011 800 1 200 1 3002012 760 1 100 1 3002013 730 1 100 1 3002014 710 1 100 1 3002015 680 1 000 1 2002016 660 990 1 2002017 640 950 1 1002018 620 910 1 1002019 590 880 1 1002020 570 850 1 0002021 550 820 1 0002022 530 790 9902023 510 760 9702024 480 730 9402025 470 710 9202026 460 690 900

Melville (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 99 000 99 200 99 3002007 99 000 99 700 100 3002008 99 100 100 300 101 6002009 99 400 101 100 103 1002010 99 400 101 700 104 4002011 99 400 102 200 105 5002012 99 500 102 500 106 3002013 99 500 102 800 106 9002014 99 400 103 000 107 3002015 99 400 103 200 107 7002016 99 400 103 300 108 0002017 99 300 103 400 108 2002018 99 200 103 500 108 6002019 99 200 103 700 108 9002020 99 100 103 800 109 2002021 99 000 104 000 109 5002022 99 000 104 100 109 9002023 98 900 104 200 110 3002024 98 700 104 300 110 6002025 98 600 104 400 110 9002026 98 400 104 500 111 200

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 42 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Menzies (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 240 250 2602007 220 240 2702008 210 240 2802009 180 230 2902010 170 220 3102011 160 220 3202012 150 210 3302013 140 210 3302014 140 210 3302015 130 200 3302016 130 200 3202017 130 200 3202018 130 190 3202019 120 190 3202020 120 190 3202021 120 190 3102022 120 190 3102023 110 180 3102024 110 180 3102025 110 180 3102026 110 180 310

Merredin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 3 400 3 400 3 4002007 3 300 3 400 3 5002008 3 100 3 400 3 6002009 2 900 3 400 3 7002010 2 700 3 400 3 7002011 2 600 3 400 3 8002012 2 500 3 300 3 8002013 2 400 3 300 3 8002014 2 300 3 300 3 8002015 2 300 3 300 3 8002016 2 300 3 300 3 8002017 2 300 3 200 3 8002018 2 300 3 200 3 7002019 2 200 3 200 3 7002020 2 200 3 200 3 7002021 2 200 3 100 3 7002022 2 200 3 100 3 7002023 2 100 3 100 3 6002024 2 100 3 100 3 6002025 2 100 3 000 3 6002026 2 000 3 000 3 600

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 43 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Mingenew (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 510 510 5102007 460 490 5302008 420 480 5402009 380 460 5502010 340 450 5602011 310 430 5702012 290 420 5702013 270 400 5602014 260 390 5502015 250 380 5402016 240 370 5302017 230 360 5202018 220 350 5102019 220 340 5002020 210 340 4902021 210 330 4902022 200 320 4802023 200 320 4702024 190 310 4702025 190 310 4602026 190 300 460

Moora (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 2 600 2 600 2 6002007 2 500 2 600 2 7002008 2 400 2 600 2 8002009 2 300 2 600 2 9002010 2 200 2 600 3 0002011 2 100 2 600 3 1002012 2 000 2 600 3 2002013 1 900 2 600 3 2002014 1 900 2 600 3 2002015 1 800 2 600 3 2002016 1 800 2 600 3 2002017 1 800 2 500 3 2002018 1 700 2 500 3 2002019 1 700 2 500 3 1002020 1 700 2 500 3 1002021 1 600 2 400 3 1002022 1 600 2 400 3 1002023 1 600 2 400 3 1002024 1 500 2 300 3 1002025 1 500 2 300 3 0002026 1 400 2 300 3 000

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 44 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Morawa (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 880 890 9002007 830 890 9402008 790 890 9902009 740 890 1 0002010 700 890 1 1002011 660 900 1 1002012 640 900 1 2002013 630 900 1 2002014 630 910 1 2002015 630 910 1 2002016 640 910 1 2002017 640 920 1 2002018 640 930 1 2002019 640 930 1 2002020 640 930 1 2002021 650 940 1 2002022 640 940 1 3002023 640 950 1 3002024 640 950 1 3002025 640 950 1 3002026 640 960 1 300

Mosman Park (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 8 800 8 800 8 8002007 8 800 9 000 9 1002008 8 800 9 100 9 4002009 8 900 9 300 9 7002010 8 900 9 500 10 0002011 9 000 9 700 10 3002012 9 100 9 800 10 5002013 9 200 10 000 10 7002014 9 300 10 100 10 8002015 9 400 10 200 11 0002016 9 500 10 300 11 1002017 9 700 10 400 11 2002018 9 800 10 500 11 3002019 9 900 10 600 11 4002020 10 000 10 700 11 5002021 10 100 10 900 11 7002022 10 200 11 000 11 8002023 10 200 11 100 11 9002024 10 300 11 200 12 1002025 10 400 11 300 12 2002026 10 500 11 400 12 300

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 45 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Mount Magnet (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 720 740 7502007 630 710 7902008 550 690 8302009 470 680 8902010 410 660 9302011 370 650 9402012 340 620 9302013 320 600 9002014 300 570 8602015 290 540 8302016 270 510 7902017 260 480 7502018 250 460 7102019 240 440 6802020 230 420 6602021 220 400 6402022 210 380 6202023 200 370 6002024 200 360 5902025 190 350 5802026 190 340 570

Mount Marshall (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 650 660 6602007 640 660 6802008 620 670 7002009 610 690 7202010 590 700 7502011 580 710 7702012 580 720 7902013 580 730 8002014 570 740 8102015 580 740 8202016 580 740 8202017 580 750 8302018 580 750 8302019 580 750 8402020 580 760 8502021 590 760 8502022 590 760 8502023 590 770 8602024 590 770 8702025 590 770 8702026 600 780 880

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 46 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Mukinbudin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 610 610 6102007 570 600 6302008 530 590 6402009 490 570 6502010 450 550 6502011 410 540 6602012 390 530 6602013 370 510 6602014 350 500 6502015 340 490 6402016 330 480 6302017 320 470 6202018 310 460 6102019 300 450 6002020 290 440 6002021 280 430 5902022 270 420 5802023 260 410 5702024 250 400 5602025 250 390 5602026 240 390 550

Mundaring (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 36 700 36 700 36 8002007 36 700 37 200 37 7002008 36 900 37 800 38 8002009 37 100 38 600 40 3002010 37 400 39 400 41 6002011 37 600 40 100 42 7002012 37 900 40 600 43 6002013 38 100 41 100 44 4002014 38 400 41 500 45 0002015 38 600 41 900 45 5002016 38 900 42 200 45 9002017 39 100 42 500 46 3002018 39 300 42 800 46 7002019 39 500 43 100 47 1002020 39 700 43 400 47 5002021 39 900 43 700 48 0002022 40 100 44 100 48 4002023 40 300 44 400 48 9002024 40 500 44 700 49 3002025 40 700 45 000 49 7002026 40 900 45 300 50 200

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 47 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Murchison (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 120 130 1302007 110 130 1402008 100 130 1402009 95 130 1502010 90 130 1602011 85 130 1602012 80 130 1702013 80 130 1702014 80 130 1702015 80 130 1702016 80 130 1702017 80 130 1702018 85 130 1802019 85 130 1802020 85 140 1802021 85 140 1802022 85 140 1802023 85 140 1802024 85 140 1802025 85 140 1802026 90 140 180

Murray (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 12 600 12 600 12 6002007 13 100 13 400 13 9002008 13 500 14 200 15 1002009 13 800 15 000 16 3002010 14 200 15 700 17 5002011 14 600 16 500 18 6002012 15 200 17 300 19 7002013 15 900 18 100 20 7002014 16 600 19 000 21 6002015 17 400 19 800 22 6002016 18 300 20 700 23 5002017 19 100 21 600 24 4002018 19 900 22 500 25 4002019 20 800 23 400 26 3002020 21 600 24 200 27 2002021 22 400 25 100 28 1002022 23 200 26 000 29 0002023 24 000 26 800 30 0002024 24 800 27 700 30 8002025 25 600 28 500 31 8002026 26 400 29 400 32 700

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 48 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Nannup (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 300 1 300 1 3002007 1 200 1 300 1 3002008 1 200 1 300 1 4002009 1 100 1 300 1 4002010 1 100 1 300 1 5002011 1 100 1 300 1 6002012 1 000 1 300 1 6002013 1 000 1 300 1 6002014 980 1 300 1 6002015 960 1 300 1 6002016 940 1 300 1 6002017 920 1 200 1 6002018 900 1 200 1 5002019 880 1 200 1 5002020 860 1 200 1 5002021 840 1 200 1 5002022 820 1 100 1 5002023 800 1 100 1 5002024 780 1 100 1 5002025 770 1 100 1 5002026 750 1 100 1 400

Narembeen (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 950 950 9502007 860 930 9902008 780 910 1 0002009 700 890 1 1002010 610 870 1 1002011 550 840 1 2002012 500 820 1 2002013 460 790 1 2002014 420 760 1 2002015 400 740 1 2002016 370 720 1 1002017 350 690 1 1002018 330 670 1 1002019 320 650 1 1002020 300 630 1 1002021 280 610 1 1002022 270 590 1 0002023 260 580 1 0002024 250 570 1 0002025 250 550 1 0002026 240 540 1 000

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 49 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Narrogin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 870 870 8702007 730 890 9702008 600 910 1 1002009 470 940 1 2002010 380 970 1 3002011 340 1 000 1 4002012 310 1 000 1 5002013 290 1 000 1 6002014 290 1 100 1 6002015 290 1 100 1 7002016 300 1 100 1 7002017 310 1 100 1 8002018 310 1 100 1 8002019 310 1 200 1 8002020 310 1 200 1 9002021 310 1 200 1 9002022 320 1 200 1 9002023 320 1 200 2 0002024 320 1 200 2 0002025 330 1 300 2 1002026 340 1 300 2 100

Narrogin (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 4 500 4 500 4 5002007 4 500 4 500 4 6002008 4 500 4 600 4 7002009 4 500 4 700 4 8002010 4 500 4 700 4 9002011 4 600 4 800 5 0002012 4 600 4 800 5 0002013 4 600 4 900 5 1002014 4 700 5 000 5 2002015 4 700 5 000 5 3002016 4 800 5 100 5 3002017 4 800 5 100 5 4002018 4 900 5 200 5 5002019 4 900 5 200 5 6002020 5 000 5 300 5 6002021 5 000 5 300 5 7002022 5 000 5 400 5 8002023 5 100 5 500 5 8002024 5 100 5 500 5 9002025 5 200 5 600 6 0002026 5 200 5 600 6 000

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 50 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Nedlands (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 21 800 21 800 21 8002007 21 700 21 900 22 2002008 21 600 22 100 22 5002009 21 600 22 300 22 9002010 21 500 22 400 23 2002011 21 400 22 500 23 5002012 21 400 22 600 23 6002013 21 400 22 600 23 8002014 21 400 22 700 23 9002015 21 400 22 700 24 0002016 21 400 22 800 24 1002017 21 400 22 800 24 1002018 21 400 22 800 24 2002019 21 400 22 900 24 3002020 21 400 22 900 24 4002021 21 400 22 900 24 4002022 21 400 23 000 24 5002023 21 300 23 000 24 6002024 21 300 23 000 24 6002025 21 300 23 000 24 7002026 21 300 23 000 24 800

Ngaanyatjarraku (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 500 1 600 1 7002007 1 500 1 600 1 7002008 1 400 1 600 1 7002009 1 400 1 600 1 8002010 1 400 1 600 1 8002011 1 400 1 600 1 9002012 1 400 1 600 2 0002013 1 400 1 700 2 1002014 1 400 1 700 2 1002015 1 400 1 700 2 2002016 1 400 1 800 2 2002017 1 400 1 800 2 3002018 1 400 1 800 2 3002019 1 400 1 800 2 4002020 1 400 1 900 2 4002021 1 400 1 900 2 4002022 1 500 1 900 2 5002023 1 500 1 900 2 5002024 1 500 2 000 2 6002025 1 500 2 000 2 6002026 1 500 2 000 2 600

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 51 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Northam (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 10 300 10 400 10 4002007 10 400 10 600 10 8002008 10 400 10 800 11 2002009 10 300 11 000 11 6002010 10 400 11 300 12 1002011 10 400 11 500 12 4002012 10 500 11 700 12 8002013 10 700 12 000 13 1002014 10 800 12 200 13 4002015 11 000 12 400 13 6002016 11 200 12 600 13 9002017 11 500 12 900 14 1002018 11 700 13 100 14 3002019 11 900 13 300 14 6002020 12 100 13 500 14 8002021 12 200 13 700 15 1002022 12 500 14 000 15 3002023 12 600 14 200 15 6002024 12 800 14 400 15 8002025 13 000 14 600 16 1002026 13 200 14 800 16 300

Northampton (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 3 300 3 400 3 4002007 3 400 3 400 3 5002008 3 400 3 500 3 6002009 3 400 3 600 3 8002010 3 400 3 700 3 9002011 3 400 3 800 4 1002012 3 400 3 900 4 2002013 3 400 3 900 4 3002014 3 500 4 000 4 3002015 3 500 4 000 4 4002016 3 600 4 100 4 5002017 3 600 4 200 4 5002018 3 700 4 200 4 6002019 3 700 4 300 4 7002020 3 700 4 300 4 7002021 3 800 4 400 4 8002022 3 800 4 400 4 9002023 3 900 4 500 4 9002024 3 900 4 500 5 0002025 3 900 4 600 5 0002026 4 000 4 600 5 100

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 52 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Nungarin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 260 260 2602007 230 250 2702008 200 230 2702009 180 230 2802010 160 220 2902011 140 220 3002012 130 210 3002013 120 200 3102014 110 200 3102015 110 200 3202016 100 200 3302017 95 200 3302018 95 200 3302019 90 200 3402020 90 200 3402021 90 200 3402022 85 200 3402023 85 200 3402024 90 200 3502025 90 200 3502026 85 200 350

Peppermint Grove (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 700 1 700 1 7002007 1 700 1 700 1 8002008 1 600 1 700 1 8002009 1 600 1 800 1 9002010 1 600 1 800 1 9002011 1 600 1 800 1 9002012 1 600 1 800 2 0002013 1 600 1 800 2 0002014 1 600 1 800 2 0002015 1 600 1 800 2 0002016 1 600 1 800 2 0002017 1 600 1 800 2 0002018 1 600 1 800 2 0002019 1 600 1 800 2 0002020 1 600 1 800 2 0002021 1 500 1 800 2 0002022 1 500 1 800 2 0002023 1 500 1 700 2 0002024 1 500 1 700 2 0002025 1 500 1 700 2 0002026 1 500 1 700 2 000

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 53 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Perenjori (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 560 570 5702007 530 560 5802008 500 550 5902009 470 540 6102010 440 530 6202011 420 530 6302012 400 520 6302013 390 510 6302014 380 500 6202015 370 490 6102016 360 480 6102017 360 470 6002018 350 470 5902019 340 460 5802020 340 450 5802021 330 450 5702022 320 440 5602023 320 430 5602024 310 430 5502025 310 420 5502026 300 420 540

Perth (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 12 500 12 500 12 6002007 13 400 14 200 15 0002008 14 300 15 800 17 2002009 15 200 17 500 19 6002010 16 300 19 300 21 9002011 17 800 21 000 23 9002012 19 400 22 700 25 8002013 21 100 24 400 27 5002014 22 800 26 000 29 1002015 24 600 27 700 30 7002016 26 300 29 400 32 3002017 28 100 31 100 33 9002018 29 800 32 700 35 5002019 31 500 34 400 37 2002020 33 100 36 100 38 9002021 34 800 37 700 40 6002022 36 400 39 400 42 3002023 38 000 41 000 44 0002024 39 600 42 700 45 7002025 41 200 44 300 47 4002026 42 800 45 900 49 100

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 54 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Pingelly (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 200 1 200 1 3002007 1 200 1 200 1 3002008 1 200 1 200 1 3002009 1 200 1 300 1 3002010 1 200 1 300 1 4002011 1 200 1 300 1 4002012 1 200 1 300 1 4002013 1 200 1 300 1 4002014 1 200 1 300 1 4002015 1 200 1 300 1 4002016 1 200 1 300 1 5002017 1 200 1 300 1 5002018 1 200 1 300 1 5002019 1 200 1 300 1 5002020 1 200 1 300 1 5002021 1 200 1 300 1 5002022 1 200 1 300 1 5002023 1 100 1 300 1 5002024 1 100 1 300 1 5002025 1 100 1 300 1 5002026 1 100 1 300 1 500

Plantagenet (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 4 700 4 700 4 7002007 4 600 4 800 4 9002008 4 600 4 800 5 1002009 4 500 4 900 5 3002010 4 400 5 000 5 5002011 4 300 5 000 5 7002012 4 300 5 100 5 8002013 4 300 5 100 5 9002014 4 300 5 200 6 0002015 4 300 5 200 6 0002016 4 300 5 200 6 1002017 4 300 5 300 6 1002018 4 400 5 300 6 2002019 4 400 5 300 6 2002020 4 400 5 300 6 3002021 4 400 5 400 6 3002022 4 400 5 400 6 4002023 4 400 5 400 6 4002024 4 400 5 500 6 5002025 4 500 5 500 6 5002026 4 500 5 500 6 500

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 55 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Port Hedland (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 12 800 13 000 13 2002007 12 700 13 200 13 7002008 12 600 13 500 14 4002009 12 500 13 900 15 2002010 12 400 14 200 16 0002011 12 300 14 500 16 5002012 12 300 14 700 17 0002013 12 400 14 900 17 3002014 12 400 15 000 17 5002015 12 500 15 200 17 7002016 12 600 15 300 17 8002017 12 600 15 300 18 0002018 12 700 15 400 18 1002019 12 800 15 500 18 2002020 12 800 15 600 18 3002021 12 900 15 700 18 5002022 12 900 15 800 18 6002023 13 000 15 900 18 7002024 13 000 16 000 18 9002025 13 000 16 000 19 0002026 13 100 16 100 19 100

Quairading (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 100 1 100 1 1002007 1 000 1 100 1 1002008 950 1 100 1 2002009 880 1 100 1 2002010 810 1 100 1 2002011 770 1 100 1 3002012 730 1 100 1 3002013 710 1 100 1 3002014 690 1 100 1 3002015 680 1 100 1 3002016 670 1 100 1 3002017 670 1 100 1 3002018 660 1 100 1 3002019 650 1 100 1 3002020 650 1 100 1 3002021 640 1 100 1 3002022 630 1 100 1 3002023 620 1 100 1 3002024 610 1 100 1 3002025 610 1 100 1 3002026 600 1 000 1 300

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 56 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Ravensthorpe (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 2 100 2 100 2 1002007 1 900 2 100 2 4002008 1 800 2 200 2 6002009 1 600 2 300 3 0002010 1 500 2 300 3 3002011 1 400 2 400 3 5002012 1 400 2 500 3 7002013 1 400 2 500 3 9002014 1 400 2 600 4 0002015 1 400 2 700 4 1002016 1 500 2 800 4 2002017 1 600 2 800 4 3002018 1 600 2 900 4 4002019 1 700 3 000 4 5002020 1 700 3 100 4 6002021 1 800 3 200 4 7002022 1 900 3 200 4 8002023 1 900 3 300 4 9002024 2 000 3 400 5 0002025 2 000 3 500 5 1002026 2 100 3 600 5 200

Rockingham (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 87 700 87 800 87 9002007 90 300 91 600 92 8002008 93 200 95 800 98 3002009 96 300 100 600 104 7002010 99 400 105 300 111 0002011 102 700 109 800 116 9002012 106 000 114 300 122 4002013 109 300 118 400 127 5002014 112 600 122 600 132 5002015 116 300 126 700 137 2002016 119 800 130 800 141 8002017 123 300 134 800 146 4002018 127 000 138 800 150 9002019 130 600 143 000 155 6002020 134 300 147 200 160 2002021 138 000 151 300 164 7002022 141 700 155 500 169 4002023 145 500 159 800 174 3002024 149 400 164 200 179 2002025 153 300 168 600 184 0002026 157 200 172 900 188 900

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 57 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Roebourne (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 17 500 17 700 17 8002007 17 500 18 000 18 6002008 17 400 18 500 19 5002009 17 500 19 200 20 8002010 17 600 19 800 22 0002011 17 700 20 400 22 9002012 17 900 20 800 23 6002013 18 100 21 100 24 2002014 18 200 21 400 24 6002015 18 300 21 600 24 8002016 18 400 21 700 25 0002017 18 500 21 900 25 2002018 18 600 22 000 25 4002019 18 700 22 200 25 6002020 18 800 22 300 25 8002021 18 900 22 500 26 0002022 19 000 22 600 26 2002023 19 100 22 800 26 5002024 19 300 23 000 26 7002025 19 400 23 100 27 0002026 19 500 23 300 27 300

Sandstone (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 130 130 1302007 110 130 1402008 100 120 1502009 95 120 1602010 85 120 1702011 85 120 1802012 80 120 1802013 80 120 1902014 75 110 1902015 75 110 1902016 75 110 1802017 75 110 1802018 70 110 1802019 70 110 1802020 70 110 1802021 70 110 1802022 70 100 1802023 70 100 1802024 65 100 1802025 65 100 1802026 65 100 180

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 58 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Serpentine-Jarrahdale (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 13 400 13 400 13 4002007 13 600 14 500 15 5002008 13 700 15 600 17 6002009 13 500 16 600 19 7002010 13 400 17 500 21 8002011 13 600 18 600 23 7002012 14 100 19 700 25 4002013 14 800 20 800 27 0002014 15 800 22 100 28 6002015 16 800 23 400 30 1002016 18 000 24 700 31 6002017 19 200 26 100 33 0002018 20 500 27 400 34 5002019 21 700 28 800 36 0002020 22 900 30 200 37 4002021 24 100 31 500 38 9002022 25 400 32 900 40 5002023 26 600 34 200 42 0002024 27 800 35 600 43 4002025 29 000 37 000 44 9002026 30 200 38 300 46 400

Shark Bay (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 910 920 9302007 910 940 9702008 910 960 1 0002009 920 990 1 1002010 930 1 000 1 1002011 940 1 000 1 1002012 950 1 100 1 2002013 970 1 100 1 2002014 980 1 100 1 2002015 1 000 1 100 1 2002016 1 000 1 100 1 2002017 1 000 1 100 1 2002018 1 000 1 100 1 2002019 1 100 1 200 1 3002020 1 100 1 200 1 3002021 1 100 1 200 1 3002022 1 100 1 200 1 3002023 1 100 1 200 1 3002024 1 100 1 200 1 3002025 1 100 1 200 1 4002026 1 100 1 300 1 400

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 59 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

South Perth (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 40 900 41 000 41 0002007 40 900 41 400 42 1002008 41 000 42 000 43 2002009 41 300 42 800 44 7002010 41 700 43 600 46 1002011 42 100 44 300 47 2002012 42 500 44 900 48 0002013 42 900 45 400 48 8002014 43 200 45 800 49 3002015 43 500 46 200 49 7002016 43 800 46 500 50 1002017 44 100 46 900 50 4002018 44 400 47 200 50 7002019 44 600 47 500 51 1002020 44 800 47 800 51 5002021 45 100 48 100 51 8002022 45 300 48 400 52 2002023 45 600 48 700 52 6002024 45 800 49 100 53 1002025 46 000 49 300 53 4002026 46 200 49 700 53 900

Stirling (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 186 300 186 500 186 7002007 188 200 189 400 190 6002008 190 500 192 800 195 2002009 193 900 197 500 201 3002010 196 800 201 600 206 8002011 199 400 205 200 211 4002012 201 700 208 300 215 4002013 203 900 211 000 218 8002014 205 700 213 300 221 7002015 207 400 215 400 224 2002016 208 900 217 300 226 5002017 210 400 219 100 228 7002018 211 800 220 900 230 9002019 213 300 222 800 233 1002020 214 700 224 500 235 5002021 216 300 226 500 237 7002022 217 600 228 400 240 1002023 219 100 230 400 242 6002024 220 700 232 300 245 2002025 222 200 234 200 247 6002026 223 600 236 200 249 800

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 60 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Subiaco (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 17 500 17 500 17 5002007 17 400 17 700 18 1002008 17 500 17 900 18 8002009 17 700 18 300 19 6002010 17 900 18 700 20 4002011 18 100 19 100 21 0002012 18 300 19 400 21 5002013 18 600 19 700 21 9002014 18 800 20 000 22 2002015 19 000 20 200 22 4002016 19 200 20 400 22 6002017 19 400 20 600 22 8002018 19 600 20 900 23 0002019 19 700 21 100 23 3002020 19 900 21 300 23 5002021 20 100 21 500 23 8002022 20 300 21 700 24 1002023 20 500 22 000 24 3002024 20 600 22 200 24 6002025 20 800 22 400 24 8002026 21 000 22 600 25 100

Swan (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 97 200 97 400 97 7002007 99 800 100 900 102 0002008 102 700 104 800 107 1002009 106 200 109 500 113 3002010 109 800 114 400 119 4002011 113 500 118 900 125 0002012 117 000 123 100 130 0002013 120 500 127 100 134 7002014 123 900 130 900 139 0002015 127 200 134 700 143 0002016 130 500 138 200 146 9002017 133 800 141 700 150 7002018 137 200 145 300 154 7002019 140 600 149 000 158 6002020 144 000 152 600 162 6002021 147 500 156 400 166 6002022 151 000 160 200 170 7002023 154 500 164 100 174 9002024 158 100 167 900 179 2002025 161 800 171 800 183 5002026 165 500 175 700 187 800

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 61 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Tammin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 420 420 4202007 390 410 4402008 380 410 4602009 360 410 4802010 340 410 5102011 330 410 5202012 310 400 5202013 300 390 5202014 290 380 5102015 280 370 5002016 270 360 4902017 260 350 4802018 250 340 4702019 250 330 4602020 240 330 4502021 230 320 4502022 230 320 4402023 220 310 4402024 220 310 4402025 220 300 4302026 210 300 430

Three Springs (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 710 710 7202007 690 710 7402008 670 710 7502009 650 710 7702010 640 710 7902011 620 710 8002012 610 710 8102013 600 710 8102014 590 700 8102015 590 700 8102016 580 700 8102017 580 690 8002018 580 690 8002019 570 680 8002020 570 680 7902021 560 680 7902022 560 670 7902023 550 670 7902024 550 670 7902025 540 660 7902026 540 660 790

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 62 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Toodyay (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 4 400 4 400 4 4002007 4 400 4 500 4 5002008 4 400 4 600 4 7002009 4 500 4 700 4 9002010 4 500 4 800 5 0002011 4 600 4 900 5 2002012 4 700 5 000 5 3002013 4 700 5 100 5 4002014 4 800 5 200 5 5002015 4 900 5 300 5 7002016 5 000 5 400 5 8002017 5 000 5 500 5 9002018 5 100 5 600 6 0002019 5 200 5 600 6 1002020 5 300 5 700 6 2002021 5 300 5 800 6 3002022 5 400 5 900 6 4002023 5 500 6 000 6 5002024 5 600 6 100 6 6002025 5 600 6 200 6 7002026 5 700 6 300 6 800

Trayning (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 410 410 4102007 380 410 4302008 350 400 4402009 310 400 4502010 280 400 4702011 270 390 4802012 250 390 4902013 240 390 4902014 240 380 4902015 230 380 4902016 230 380 4902017 230 380 4802018 230 370 4802019 220 370 4802020 220 370 4802021 220 360 4802022 210 360 4802023 210 360 4802024 210 360 4702025 210 350 4702026 200 350 470

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 63 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Upper Gascoyne (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 310 330 3402007 300 320 3502008 280 320 3602009 260 310 3802010 250 320 4002011 240 320 4202012 230 320 4302013 230 320 4502014 230 330 4502015 230 330 4602016 240 330 4702017 240 340 4702018 240 340 4702019 240 340 4802020 240 340 4802021 240 340 4902022 240 350 4902023 240 350 4902024 240 350 5002025 240 350 5002026 240 350 510

Victoria Park (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 29 400 29 500 29 5002007 29 900 30 100 30 4002008 30 400 30 800 31 2002009 31 100 31 700 32 3002010 31 900 32 700 33 5002011 32 700 33 600 34 5002012 33 400 34 400 35 4002013 34 100 35 100 36 2002014 34 700 35 800 36 9002015 35 300 36 500 37 6002016 35 900 37 100 38 3002017 36 500 37 700 38 9002018 37 000 38 300 39 6002019 37 500 38 900 40 2002020 38 100 39 500 40 9002021 38 600 40 000 41 5002022 39 100 40 600 42 2002023 39 600 41 200 42 8002024 40 200 41 800 43 5002025 40 600 42 300 44 1002026 41 100 42 900 44 700

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 64 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Victoria Plains (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 950 950 9602007 900 940 9902008 850 930 1 0002009 800 930 1 1002010 760 930 1 1002011 730 930 1 2002012 700 920 1 2002013 670 910 1 2002014 650 900 1 2002015 640 890 1 2002016 630 880 1 2002017 610 860 1 2002018 600 850 1 2002019 590 840 1 1002020 570 830 1 1002021 560 810 1 1002022 550 800 1 1002023 540 790 1 1002024 530 780 1 1002025 510 770 1 1002026 510 760 1 100

Vincent (T)Band A Band C Band E

2006 29 400 29 500 29 6002007 29 200 29 800 30 6002008 29 200 30 300 31 8002009 29 300 31 000 33 3002010 29 500 31 700 34 8002011 29 800 32 400 35 9002012 30 100 32 900 36 8002013 30 400 33 400 37 5002014 30 700 33 800 38 0002015 31 000 34 100 38 4002016 31 200 34 400 38 7002017 31 400 34 600 39 0002018 31 700 34 900 39 3002019 31 900 35 200 39 6002020 32 200 35 500 40 0002021 32 400 35 800 40 3002022 32 600 36 100 40 7002023 32 900 36 400 41 2002024 33 100 36 700 41 5002025 33 300 37 000 41 9002026 33 500 37 400 42 300

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 65 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Wagin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 2 000 2 000 2 0002007 1 900 2 000 2 0002008 1 800 1 900 2 1002009 1 700 2 000 2 2002010 1 600 2 000 2 3002011 1 600 2 000 2 4002012 1 500 2 000 2 4002013 1 500 2 000 2 5002014 1 400 2 000 2 5002015 1 400 1 900 2 5002016 1 400 1 900 2 5002017 1 400 1 900 2 5002018 1 400 1 900 2 5002019 1 300 1 900 2 5002020 1 300 1 900 2 5002021 1 300 1 900 2 5002022 1 300 1 900 2 5002023 1 200 1 800 2 5002024 1 200 1 800 2 5002025 1 200 1 800 2 5002026 1 200 1 800 2 500

Wandering (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 380 380 3802007 370 390 4102008 360 390 4402009 360 410 4702010 350 410 5002011 350 420 5302012 350 430 5502013 360 440 5602014 360 450 5802015 370 460 5902016 370 460 6002017 380 470 6102018 380 480 6202019 390 490 6302020 390 500 6402021 400 500 6502022 410 510 6602023 410 520 6702024 420 530 6802025 430 540 6902026 430 540 700

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 66 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Wanneroo (C)Band A Band C Band E

2006 115 700 115 900 116 1002007 121 500 123 900 125 8002008 127 800 132 700 136 4002009 135 100 143 000 149 1002010 142 000 152 800 161 1002011 149 000 162 000 172 2002012 156 000 170 700 182 5002013 162 900 179 000 191 9002014 169 700 186 900 200 6002015 176 600 194 600 209 1002016 183 300 202 000 217 0002017 190 100 209 300 225 0002018 197 000 216 700 232 9002019 203 800 224 200 241 1002020 210 900 231 800 249 2002021 217 900 239 400 257 4002022 224 900 247 100 265 6002023 232 000 254 800 273 9002024 239 300 262 600 282 5002025 246 500 270 300 291 0002026 253 700 278 100 299 500

Waroona (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 3 600 3 600 3 7002007 3 600 3 700 3 8002008 3 500 3 700 3 9002009 3 500 3 800 4 1002010 3 400 3 800 4 2002011 3 400 3 900 4 3002012 3 400 4 000 4 4002013 3 400 4 000 4 5002014 3 400 4 000 4 6002015 3 400 4 100 4 7002016 3 500 4 100 4 7002017 3 500 4 200 4 8002018 3 500 4 200 4 8002019 3 600 4 200 4 9002020 3 600 4 300 4 9002021 3 600 4 300 5 0002022 3 600 4 400 5 1002023 3 700 4 400 5 1002024 3 700 4 500 5 2002025 3 700 4 500 5 2002026 3 800 4 500 5 300

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 67 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

West Arthur (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 890 890 8902007 850 880 9202008 820 870 9402009 790 870 9802010 760 870 1 0002011 730 860 1 0002012 710 850 1 1002013 690 840 1 1002014 670 830 1 1002015 650 820 1 1002016 640 810 1 0002017 620 790 1 0002018 610 780 1 0002019 590 770 1 0002020 580 760 1 0002021 570 750 1 0002022 550 740 1 0002023 540 730 1 0002024 530 720 1 0002025 510 710 9902026 500 700 980

Westonia (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 230 230 2302007 210 220 2302008 190 210 2302009 180 210 2402010 170 210 2402011 160 200 2402012 160 200 2402013 150 200 2402014 150 190 2402015 140 190 2402016 140 190 2402017 140 190 2402018 140 190 2402019 140 190 2402020 140 190 2502021 140 190 2502022 140 190 2502023 140 190 2502024 140 190 2502025 140 200 2602026 140 200 260

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 68 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Wickepin (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 770 770 7702007 720 770 8202008 680 770 8702009 640 770 9302010 610 780 9902011 570 780 1 0002012 550 780 1 1002013 530 770 1 1002014 520 770 1 1002015 510 760 1 1002016 500 760 1 1002017 490 750 1 1002018 480 740 1 1002019 470 740 1 1002020 470 730 1 1002021 460 730 1 1002022 450 720 1 1002023 440 720 1 1002024 440 710 1 1002025 430 710 1 1002026 420 700 1 100

Williams (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 920 920 9302007 880 930 9602008 860 940 1 0002009 840 960 1 1002010 810 970 1 1002011 790 980 1 1002012 770 980 1 2002013 760 980 1 2002014 750 980 1 2002015 740 980 1 2002016 740 980 1 2002017 730 980 1 2002018 730 970 1 2002019 720 970 1 2002020 720 960 1 2002021 710 960 1 2002022 700 950 1 2002023 690 950 1 2002024 690 950 1 2002025 680 940 1 2002026 670 940 1 200

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 69 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Wiluna (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 740 770 7902007 720 770 8202008 690 780 8602009 660 780 8902010 630 790 9402011 620 810 9702012 610 820 1 0002013 610 830 1 0002014 620 840 1 1002015 630 860 1 1002016 640 880 1 1002017 650 890 1 1002018 660 910 1 1002019 670 920 1 2002020 680 930 1 2002021 690 950 1 2002022 700 960 1 2002023 710 980 1 2002024 720 990 1 3002025 730 1 000 1 3002026 740 1 000 1 300

Wongan-Ballidu (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 500 1 500 1 5002007 1 400 1 500 1 5002008 1 400 1 500 1 5002009 1 400 1 500 1 6002010 1 300 1 500 1 6002011 1 300 1 500 1 7002012 1 300 1 400 1 7002013 1 200 1 400 1 7002014 1 200 1 400 1 7002015 1 200 1 400 1 7002016 1 200 1 400 1 6002017 1 100 1 400 1 6002018 1 100 1 300 1 6002019 1 100 1 300 1 6002020 1 100 1 300 1 6002021 1 000 1 300 1 6002022 1 000 1 300 1 6002023 980 1 200 1 5002024 960 1 200 1 5002025 940 1 200 1 5002026 910 1 200 1 500

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 70 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Woodanilling (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 420 420 4202007 410 430 4402008 410 430 4602009 410 440 4802010 410 450 5002011 410 460 5102012 410 470 5302013 410 470 5402014 410 480 5502015 410 480 5602016 410 480 5602017 410 490 5702018 420 490 5702019 420 490 5802020 420 500 5802021 420 500 5902022 420 500 6002023 420 510 6002024 420 510 6102025 420 510 6202026 420 520 620

Wyalkatchem (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 600 600 6002007 550 580 6102008 510 560 6202009 470 540 6402010 430 520 6502011 390 500 6502012 360 490 6502013 340 470 6402014 320 450 6302015 310 430 6102016 290 420 6002017 280 400 5802018 270 390 5702019 260 380 5502020 250 370 5402021 240 350 5302022 230 340 5202023 220 330 5102024 210 330 5002025 210 320 4902026 200 310 480

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 71 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Wyndham-East Kimberley (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 7 100 7 300 7 5002007 7 000 7 400 7 7002008 6 900 7 500 8 1002009 6 800 7 700 8 6002010 6 600 7 800 9 0002011 6 500 7 900 9 4002012 6 400 8 000 9 6002013 6 400 8 100 9 8002014 6 300 8 100 9 9002015 6 300 8 000 9 9002016 6 200 8 000 9 9002017 6 200 8 000 9 9002018 6 100 7 900 9 9002019 6 100 7 900 9 9002020 6 000 7 900 9 9002021 5 900 7 800 9 9002022 5 900 7 800 9 9002023 5 800 7 700 9 9002024 5 700 7 700 9 9002025 5 600 7 600 9 9002026 5 600 7 600 9 900

Yalgoo (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 260 270 2802007 250 270 2902008 240 270 3202009 230 280 3502010 220 280 3702011 220 280 3902012 210 280 4002013 210 280 4002014 210 280 4102015 210 290 4102016 210 290 4102017 210 290 4102018 210 290 4102019 210 290 4102020 210 290 4102021 210 290 4102022 210 290 4102023 210 290 4102024 220 300 4202025 220 300 4202026 220 300 420

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 72 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Yilgarn (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 1 500 1 500 1 5002007 1 300 1 500 1 6002008 1 200 1 400 1 7002009 1 000 1 400 1 8002010 910 1 400 1 8002011 800 1 300 1 9002012 720 1 300 1 9002013 660 1 300 1 9002014 610 1 200 1 9002015 570 1 200 1 9002016 540 1 100 1 8002017 520 1 100 1 8002018 500 1 100 1 7002019 470 1 000 1 7002020 450 990 1 7002021 440 960 1 7002022 430 940 1 6002023 410 910 1 6002024 400 870 1 6002025 400 850 1 6002026 390 830 1 600

York (S)Band A Band C Band E

2006 3 300 3 300 3 3002007 3 300 3 400 3 5002008 3 200 3 500 3 7002009 3 200 3 600 3 9002010 3 200 3 600 4 1002011 3 200 3 700 4 3002012 3 200 3 800 4 5002013 3 300 4 000 4 6002014 3 400 4 100 4 8002015 3 500 4 200 4 9002016 3 600 4 300 5 0002017 3 700 4 400 5 1002018 3 800 4 500 5 3002019 3 900 4 700 5 4002020 4 000 4 800 5 5002021 4 100 4 900 5 6002022 4 200 5 000 5 8002023 4 300 5 100 5 9002024 4 400 5 200 6 0002025 4 500 5 300 6 1002026 4 600 5 400 6 300

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 73 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

MethodologyThe population projections are derived usingan accepted model called the cohort compo-nent model. A commentary on the realisticnature of the model is included in “So howdoes it all work?” on page 2.

The model itself is based on a simple demo-graphic equation. Donald Rowland6 puts itsimply as

population growth =

(births - deaths) + (arrivals - departures)

We take the population as of 2006 to be ourstarting point. We then calculate populationgrowth for the next year. Since we are alreadypast 2006 we can use the information that wealready know in our forecast. Thus we have

used the published data on births and deathsas well as overseas arrival and departure in-formation, for the years to 2010.

Additionally we have also used indirect in-formation on new homes, building approvalsand estimates of the population produced bythe ABS using their model. This indirect in-formation has not been taken at face value.Where the trends corroborate each other theyhave been used to adjust past trends. Theadjustments also provided better fits betweenthe births and deaths recorded during the pe-riod of 2006 to 2009 and the forecast birthsand deaths during this period. That is theadjustment that needs to be made to makethe sum of births for each local governmentarea equal to the State total, is reduced oncethe adjustment is made to migration withinWestern Australia.

Figure 1: Age specific mortality rates for the years 2011 to 2012, 2015 to 2016 and 2025 to2026

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 74 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Local government areas where informationsince 2006 has suggested a stronger rate ofgrowth include Armadale, Busselton, Dard-anup, Kwinana, Mandurah, Murray, Perth,Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Wanneroo. All ofthese areas are likely to have benefited fromthe recent record levels of overseas migrationto Australia. It is less clear how much of thistrend will be temporary and which was partof the long term trend.

In contrast there were areas that did notshow as strong a trend as the past wouldsuggest. These include Gosnells, Joondalup,South Perth, Stirling, Subiaco and Swan.The changes in these areas is not great andthe amount of uncertainty is probably big-ger than the slow down. It seems likely thatthese areas would be affected in the same wayas the areas above in the event that overseasmigration were to substantially slow down.

Figure 2: Age specific fertility rates for the years 2011 to 2012, 2015 to 2016 and 2025 to2026

Both fertility and mortality have been fore-cast using accepted methods. The result isthat life expectancy is expected to continueto grow as it has in the past. Figure 1 showsthe age specific mortality rates used for WA.This can be compared with a similar figure inthe forecast profile publications.

On the other hand the assumptions for fertil-

ity are significantly different from those usedin 2005. Previously the trend had been for de-clining fertility rates. This was a world widephenomena and the recent changes that hadbeen seen were not sufficient to suggest thatthere had been a change in trend. It has nowbecome clear that there has been a change.The age specific fertility rates used for WAare shown in Figure 2.

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 75 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Figure 3: Age specific migration rates for the years 2011 to 2012, 2015 to 2016 and 2025 to2026

Figure 3 shows the overall age structure ofmigrants into Western Australia. There isonly a small proportion of interstate migrantscompared with those from overseas. There isa greater proportion of younger people rep-resented in the overseas migration. The ageprofile of interstate migration mirrors the agestructure of Western Australia, hence the flatband.

The most volatile component of populationforecasts for Australia is the assumption onhow many net overseas migrants (NOM)there will be. This is evident in all the fore-casts made in Australia. Figure 4 shows theway in which net overseas migration has beencalculated. This is an important chart as itis this assumption that plays the biggest rolein the size of the final population.

The recent record migration into Australia isnot a repeat of previous booms. Unlike pre-vious booms this boom involved significantnumbers of overseas students coming to Aus-tralia for vocational training. There is signifi-cant evidence that people were attempting touse this program as a way of permanently set-tling in Australia. Changes to this programare likely to reduce this pathway to perma-nent residency in Australia.

At the same time as this boom was happen-ing there were also changes in the way thatnet overseas migration was being measuredin official statistics. It is not clear how thesechanges will influence the way in which NOMcan be used to forecast future residents ofAustralia.

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 76 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Figure 4: Method used to calculate future net overseas migration in Australia

Hugo7 Canberra, Department of Parliamen-tary Services. pp. 1-83.) noted that therewas a change in settlement patterns fromthose observed after the second world war.This is apparent in the data that is avail-able and the choice was made to exclude therecent (student induced) record boom frompast trends and to forecast the 20 year periodfrom 1984 to 2004 as being the best indica-tive trend for future migration. A 2 year lag

between arrivals and departures provided thebest fit for net migration calculations.

Figure 4 shows that there is a lot more uncer-tainty regarding arrival numbers than thereare for departures. This is because the pastdata shows that people leaving is much morestable. This is not surprising as border con-trol is more focused on who is entering thecountry than on those leaving.

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 77 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

Figure 5: Past levels of net migration into Western Australia and gross domestic product(GDP)

Figure 5 shows past levels of net migrationinto Western Australia. To aid understandinghow net migration can be influenced by eco-nomic conditions the annual rate of change ingross domestic product (more often referredto as GDP) has been plotted. It can be seenthat the peaks prior to 2006 generally re-lated to years with good economic growth. Amore complex analysis shows that commodityprices and other economic factors also play arole. However GDP does seem to be a rea-sonable proxy for good economic times.

The point of this analysis is that the fore-cast is based on a trend of good economicconditions. It is clear that in those yearswhere there were poor economic conditions(red dots) that net migration was substan-tially lower. An overall analysis of these fore-casts would have to conclude that these arebased on future economic growth that is verygood for the western economies.

Endnotes

1As with the previous set of projectionsthe terms forecast and projection have thesame meaning within this document.

2Most of what is written here is related toNathan’s paper about the limits of forecast-ing and hence the subtitle. The second paperadds wisdom about the context in which fore-casting is undertaken.

Keyfitz, N. (1981) The Limits of Pop-ulation Forecasting . Population and Devel-opment Review 4(Dec 81): 579-593.

Keyfitz, N. (1993) ’The Social and Po-litical Context of Population Forecasting’ InPopulation Projections: Age-Sex-Race / Eth-nicity, Vol. 5 (Ed, Buttner, T.), United Na-tions Population Fund, New York, pp. 17-1to 17-3

Forecast Summary for Local Authorities 78 WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7

Population forecasts for Local Authorities 2006 to 2026

3 Hume, D. (1748) An Enquiry Con-cerning Human Nature , P.F. Collier & Son.http://18th.eserver.org/hume-enquiry.html

4 Will, F. L. (1947) Will the Future beLike the Past?, Mind, New Series, 56, (224)332-347

5Is is generally accepted that John Grauntand his work are at the forefront of “Bills ofMortality.” which was the term used for mor-tality in those days. However it was earlierthan that as in 1562 the City of London pub-lished their first bill, according to “Maitland”

in his History of London.

Graunt, J. 1662 Natural and PoliticalObservations Mentioned in a Following In-dex, and Made upon the Bills of Mortality.London: John Martyn and James Allestry.

6Rowland, D. T. (2003). Demographicmethods and concepts. Oxford, Oxford Uni-versity Press Inc. pp. 29-30

7Hugo, G. (2004). A new paradigm ofinternational migration: implications for mi-gration policy and planning in Australia.

WA Tomorrow Population Report No. 7 79 Forecast Summary for Local Authorities