load types, estimation, grwoth, forecasting and duration curves
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Azfar Rasool (12-EL-04)Wasif Hussain Sherwani (12-
EL-36)
Com
mon
Th
ings
Football
Pizza Party
Motivational Talks
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Be selective in your battle, sometimes peace is better than
being right...
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Table of Content Types of Load Load Estimation Load Growth Load Forecasting Load Duration Curves
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What is Load?
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What is Load? The Electrical Load is the part or component in a circuit that converts electricity into light, heat, or mechanical motion. Example of loads are a light bulbs, heater, motor or combination of all three.
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Table of Content Types of Load Load Estimation Load Growth Load Forecasting Load Duration Curves
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Types of Load According To Load Nature-1
Resistive Electrical Loads. Capacitive Electrical Loads. Inductive Electrical Loads. Combination Electrical Loads.
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Types of Load Linear Electrical Load.
Non-Linear Electrical Load.
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Types of Load
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Types of Load According To Load Consumer Category
• Residential Electrical Loads (Dwelling Loads).• Commercial Electrical Loads.• Industrial Electrical Loads.• Municipal / Governmental Electrical Loads (Street Lighting, Power
Required For Water Supply and Drainage Purposes, Irrigation Loads And Traction Loads).
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Table of Content Types of Load Load Estimation Load Growth Load Forecasting Load Duration Curves
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What is Load Estimation?
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What is Load Estimation?
At the beginning of the project , in the draft design (early design) stage, the electrical design professionals calculate the estimate load of a particular confine area
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What is Load estimation? The preliminary calculation of the load before the
installation of the power system is load estimation.
It is planned in the mind and designed on the paper, booklet, sketch book and checked in the computer simulation software for the correction, optimization and estimation.
Load estimation is completed, if simulation gives the desire results of the designing.
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Load estimation Methodology
Make Analysis of load characteristics, Review The available voltage system types/classes and
levels. Review the utility's rate structure, Make roughly a key single-line diagram and a set of
subsidiary single-line diagrams. The key single-line diagram should show the sources of power e.g. generators, utility intakes, the main switchboard and the interconnections to the subsidiary or secondary switchboards.
Develop Demand factor relationship between connected loads and the actual demand imposed On the system.
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How to do Load estimation? (5) methods of electrical load estimations which
are:
A)- Preliminary load calculation which divide to: 1. Space by space (functional area method), 2. Building Area method. 3. Area method. B)- NEC load calculations. C- Final load calculations.
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Load EstimationImportance
Importance of Electrical Load Estimation (preliminary load calculations)
Plan the connection to upstream network and MV circuit configurations.
Plan the transformers substation(s) (if any) and the main switchgear room.
Apply to Power Company for supply.
Calculate initial budget for the electrical works.
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Table of Content Types of Load Load Estimation Load Growth Load Forecasting Load Duration Curves
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What is Electrical Load Growth?
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What is Electrical Load Growth?
It is simply an increase in energy demand.
Load growth occurs either through natural growth of a service territory resulting from increased prosperity, productivity or population growth.
It was once a common practice of utility companies to encourage increased energy consumption and reliance
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Electrical Load GrowthTwo Causes of Load Growth
New Customer Addition: In migration, increase in population, availability of electrical utility to remote areas.
New uses of electricity: Gas heaters converted to electrical heaters. Likewise, use of Air Conditioning increase due to effect of global warming.
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Load Growth Terms Dormant period: The time "before growth" when no load
growth occurs. The small area has no load and experiences no growth.
Growth ramp: During this period growth occurs at a relatively rapid rate, because of new construction in the small area.
Saturated period: The small area is "filled up" — fully developed. Load growth may continue, but at a low level compared to that during the growth ramp.
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Load Growth TermsGraph
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Table of Content Types of Load Load Estimation Load Growth Load Forecasting Load Duration Curves
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What is Load Forecasting?
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Load Forecasting Definition: A process in which the aim is to decide
on new as well as upgrading existing system elements, to adequately satisfy the loads for a foreseen future
Elements can be: Generation facilities Substations Transmission lines and/or cables Capacitors/Reactors Etc.
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Load Forecasting Decision should be
Where to allocate the element (for instance, the sending and receiving end of a line),
When to install the element (for instance, 2020),
What to select, in terms of the element specifications (for instance, number of bundles and conductor type).
The loads should be adequately satisfied.
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Load Forecasting The first crucial step for any planning study Forecasting refers to the prediction of the load
behavior for the future Words such as, demand and consumption are
also used instead of electric load Energy (MWh, kWh) and power (MW,kW) are
the two basic parameters of a load. By load, we mean the power. Demand forecast
To determine capacity of generation, transmission and distribution required
Energy forecast To determine the type of generation facilities
required
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Load ForecastingMethodology
Forecasting: systematic procedure for quantitatively defining future loads.
Classification depending on the time period: Short term Intermediate Long term
Forecast will imply an intermediate-range forecast Planning for the addition of new generation,
transmission and distribution facilities must begin 4-10 years in advance of the actual in-service date.
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Load ForecastingTechniques
Three broad categories based on:• Extrapolation:
– Time series method– Use historical data as the basis of
estimating future outcomes.
• Correlation: – Econometric forecasting method– identify the underlying factors that might
influence the variable that is being forecast.
• Combination of both
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Load Forecasting Factors
Time factors such as: Hours of the day (day/night) Day of the week (week day/weekend) Time of the year (season)
Weather conditions (temperature and humidity) Class of customers (residential, commercial,
industrial, agricultural, public, etc.) Special events (TV programmes, public holidays,
etc.) Population Economic indicators (per capita income, Gross
National Product (GNP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), etc.)
Trends in using new technologies Electricity price
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Load ForecastingImpact of Weather
Average temperature is the most significant weather dependent factor that influences load variations.
Temperature and load are not linearly related. Non-linearity is further complicated by the
influence of Humidity Extended periods of extreme heat or cold spells
In load forecast models proper temperature ranges and representative average temperatures which cover all regions of the area served by the electric utility should be selected.
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Load ForecastingPeak Load
Extrapolate historical demand data Weather conditions can be included
Basic approach for weekly peak demand forecast is:1. Determine seasonal weather load model.2. Separate historical weather-sensitive and non-weather
sensitive components of weekly peak demand using weather load model.
3. Forecast mean and variance of non-weather-sensitive component of demand.
4. Extrapolate weather load model and forecast mean and variance of weather sensitive component.
5. Determine mean, variance and density function of total weekly forecast.
6. Calculate density function of monthly/annual forecast.
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Load ForecastingPeak Load
Assume that the seasonal variations of the peak demand are primarily due to weather.
Otherwise, before step-3 can be undertaken, any additional seasonal variation remaining after weather-sensitive variations must be removed
To use the proposed forecasting method, a data base of at least 12 years is recommended.
To develop weather load models daily peaks and coincident weather variable values are needed.
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Table of Content Types of Load Load Estimation Load Growth Load Forecasting Load Duration Curves
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What is Load Duration Curves?
Definition:
When the load elements of a load curve are arranged in the order of descending magnitudes, the curve thus obtained is called a load duration curve
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What is Load Duration Curves?
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Load Duration Curves Variations in load on a power station from time to
time: Daily load curves Monthly load curves Annual load curves
Load curve gives: Variation of load during different time Total no. of units generated Maximum demand Average load on a power station Load factor
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Load Duration Curves Daily Load Curve
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Load Duration Curves Residential Load Curve
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Load Duration CurvesCommercial Load Curve
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Load Duration CurvesIndustrial Load Curve
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Load Duration CurvesAnnual Load Duration Curve
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Table of ContentOverview
Types of Load Load Estimation Load Growth Load Forecasting Load Duration Curves
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Questions?
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Thank You!