lng masterplan for...

LNG Masterplan for Rhine-Main-Danube

The European Union’s TEN-T programme supporting

This project is co-funded by the European Commission / DG MOVE / TEN-T

A project implemented by LNG Masterplan Consortium

Sub-activity 1.1 Status Quo Analysis & Trends

D 1.1.1. Status Quo Analysis & Trends - LNG

Framework and market analysis for the Rhine corridor

The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any

use that may be made of the information contained therein.

D 1.1.1. Status Quo Analysis & Trends LNG Framework and market analysis for the Rhine corridor

Version: 1.0

Date: 30.09.2014

Status: Final / Public

D 1.1.1 Status Quo Analysis & Trends - Rhine Corridor

SuAc 1.1 Status Quo Analysis & Trends

Document History

Version Date Authorised

1.0 Final & approved 30.9.2014 Port of Rotterdam, Port of Antwerp, Port of Mannheim,

Port of Strasbourg, Port of Switzerland

Contributing Authors

Organisation

Buck Constultants International, Pace Global, TNO

Port of Rotterdam, Port of Antwerp, Port of Mannheim, Port of Strasbourg, Port of Switzerland

Introductory note

The Status Quo Analysis & Trends of the LNG Framework and market analysis for the Rhine corridor

studies was subcontracted to a consortium formed by Buck Constultants International, Pace Global,

TNO after a tendering procedure. The final deliverable was approved by involved beneficiaries and

contractor(s) in September 2014.

Commissioned by:

Rhine Port Group

Nijmegen, September 2014

LNG Framework and Market

Analysis for the Rhine corridor _________________________________________________________

Status Quo Analysis

Contents

Page

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

1.1 LNG Framework and Market analysis 1

1.2 Scope of Status Quo Analysis 3

Chapter 2 LNG propelled vessels 5

2.1 Current fleet for IWT 6 2.2 Current fleet for Short sea shipping 20

2.3 Prognosis for fleet development 30

2.4 Current and expected LNG fleet in IWT and Short Sea Shipping 36

2.5 Current and expected LNG use per vessel category 42

2.6 Concluding remarks 45

Chapter 3 Drivers for LNG uptake 46

3.1 Macro-economic Drivers 49

3.2 Transport Market Growth Drivers 51

3.3 Energy price drivers 52

3.4 Tax Policy / Regulation 63

3.5 Technological Innovation 69

3.6 Infrastructure readiness 72

3.7 Business Owner’s Risk Perspective 72

3.8 Setting the fuel price: Switching Economics 75

3.9 Concluding remarks 75

Chapter 4 Summary and conclusions 76

Abbreviations 82

References 83

Annex 1 Characteristics of IWT-classes 86

Annex 2 Overview of seagoing vessels 87

Annex 3 Operational characteristics seagoing vessels 88

Annex 4 Current and expected number of LNG vessels in IWT 89

Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 1 of 97

Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 LNG Framework and Market analysis

Commissioned by the Rhine Port Group (consisting of Port of Rotterdam Authority, Port of

Antwerp, Port of Mannheim, Port of Strasbourg and Porta of Switzerland), the combination

of Buck Consultants International (BCI), TNO and Pace Consulting (Pace) is researching

the possibilities for LNG as an environmental friendly and economic priced fuel for inland

water transport (IWT) on the Rhine corridor. The aim of this study is to assess the need for

LNG (bunker) infrastructure in the Rhine corridor in the years 2015 and forth, specifically for

2020 and 2035.

The project is structured in four sections, at the heart piece of which lies the dynamic model

which is able to provide different scenarios of LNG penetration for inland water transport

(IWT) and short sea shipping (SSS).

Figure 1.1 Framework approach LNG and market analysis

Source: BCI (2014)


This document summarises the results of first section within this study, the Status Quo

Analysis & Trends. The document presents a prognosis for LNG as a fuel in inland water-

ways transport (IWT) and short sea shipping as available in existing literature. New re-

search as part of this project and other potential LNG markets such as demand for Heavy

Goods Vehicles (HGV) and industry will be discussed in the forthcoming sections within this

study.

Figure 1.2 Position of this report in framework of the LNG market analysis

Source: BCI (2014)

This report covers the results of the Status Quo Analysis & Trends. Other sections of this

study are covered in separate reports:

LNG supply study; and

LNG demand study.


1.2 Scope of Status Quo Analysis

Research questions

In this document, the following questions raised by the Rhine Port Group are answered (see

figure 1.3). These questions are clustered in four categories A, B, C and D.

Figure 1.3 Questions and activities

Source: BCI (2014)


Methodology

The methodology used to answer the research questions for the Status Quo Analysis &

Trends report is a literature study. The current status of use of LNG by different user groups

and how experts and market stakeholders view developments in the LNG market are ad-

dressed by looking at results of recent studies. The major sources that have been used are

presented in a table at the beginning of each section.

During the course of this project a new model for estimating supply and demand of small

scale LNG is designed. The output of this model is evaluated by comparing it to estimates

found in other studies. As some developments are either very recent or very volatile in the

current (small scale) LNG market it was necessary to gather additional information through

interviews with market stakeholders. As for instance up to the time of writing this reports

there are only four inland waterway transport vessels running (partially) on LNG the base for

finding user profiles are rather small.

Report Setup

The four categories described above are dealt with in two chapters:

Chapter 2 provides answers to the clusters A and B and deals with the current fleet as

well as the expected fleet development of IWT and sea going vessels in Europe for the

years 2020 and 2035. For this purpose, the LNG penetration level in the fleet is estimat-

ed and translated to the required LNG volume.

Chapter 3 provides answers to the clusters C and D and deals with the drivers for LNG

uptake (including energy price and other drivers).


Chapter 2 LNG propelled vessels

As described in chapter 1, this chapter answers the questions shown in clusters A and B

(see below).

Figure 2.1 Questions and activities

The first part of this chapter gives a description of the existing fleet for inland waterway

transport (section 2.1) and sea going vessels (section 2.2). Section 2.3 describes the ex-

pected development of the fleet for both IWT and sea going vessels. For both vessel cate-

gories, conversion to LNG can be interesting. Special attention has been paid to the calcu-

lation of the fuel usage. The calculation of fuel use for both inland waterway transport and

sea going vessels follows the same methodology. Figure 2.2 illustrates the methodology:

Figure 2.2 Calculation steps for fuel use

Section 2.4 presents an overview the current and planned LNG fleet in both IWT and SSS,

based on databases on LNG penetration in Europe. Furthermore the section presents an

overview of the forecasts for LNG uptake that can be found in literature. Finally, section 2.5

described the expected total LNG usage for the current, planned and forecasted fleet up

until 2035.

Fleet and ship categories

Ship operations per category

Engine power per category

Specific fuel use per category

Fuel usage


2.1 Current fleet for IWT

2.1.1 Introduction

This section describes the development of inland waterway transport and the inland fleet.

The first part of this section focuses on the structure of the fleet and the developments for

the future, while the latter part will concentrate on the operational characteristics, such as

the equipment of the ships and fuel use.

The most relevant documents that have been analysed for this section are listed in table

2.1:

Table 2.1 Overview of used literature and studies

Publisher Title Relevant information

NEA (2009) Cost structure inland waterway transport Specifications engines and fuel use of

inland ships

TNO (2012); Shipping scenarios for the delta programme Prognoses for inland waterway transport

TNO (2010) Fleet development inland waterway transport Trends in the enlargement of the inland

ships

CCNR (2013) Market perspectives 2013 Activities inland shipping Rhine corridor

2.1.2 Fleet and fleet development

Transport on the Rhine corridor

The Rhine corridor is defined as the Rhine River in Germany, France and Switzerland, in-

cluding the Rhine delta in the Netherlands and Belgium and the tributary rivers in Germany

and Luxemburg, such as the Saar, the Mosel, the Neckar and the Main. Figure 2.3 gives an

overview of the complete Rhine corridor and the service area of this corridor:


Figure 2.3 Overview of the Rhine corridor

Source: Rhine Port Group, 2014

1

Figure 2.4 presents the total transport volume of the countries that are part of the Rhine

corridor. The total transport volume for Switzerland is estimated, based on the annual fact-

sheets of the Port of Switzerland. Due to the economic crisis in 2008-2009, the total IWT

volume in the Rhine corridor decreased by 18% in 2009, but total volume recovered in 2010

(growth of 24%). The decline in 2009 was caused because of a strong decline in transport

of ores and coals for the industries in Germany and France.

1 Invitation to tender – LNG Masterplan Rhine-Main-Danube – Ac 1 – LNG Framework and Market Analysis for The Rhine corridor.


Figure 2.4 Transported volumes per country 2008-2012

Source: Eurostat (2014)

The total transported volume in, specifically, the Rhine corridor in 2012 was nearly 700 mil-

lion tons and the payload exceeded 100 billion tons-kilometres. Table 2.2 presents the

transport volume for the year 2012:

Table 2.2 Transported volumes in the Rhine corridor in 2012

River / area

Total volume (in million x tons)

Payload distance (in million x ton km)

Rhine (GE) 188.7 46,548 Main(GE) 16.7 2,910 Mosel in Germany 12.7 2,799 Saar (GE) 4.2 255 Ruhr area (GE) 30.2 1,533 Netherlands 303 41,073 Flanders (BE) 69.3 4,200 Wallonia (BE) 42 1,790 Mosel in France 8.5 580 Nord-Pas-de-Calais (FR) 9.3 879 Luxemburg 8.5 290 Main-Danube-Canal 5.8 895

Total 698.9 100,853

Source: CCNR (2013)

Between 2011 and 2012, the total transported volume within the Rhine corridor had a mini-

mal increase (0.4%). The transported volume per river differed, due to specific industries in

the region and variations in developments. For example, the steel industry in Saarland

(Germany) grew due to specialisation, while the industry in Liege (Belgium) decreased. In

effect, the transported volume on the Saar increased and the total transported volume in

Wallonia decreased between 2011 and 2012. This example shows that the transported vol-

ume by IWT is strongly related to economic changes and sector developments.

IWT on the Rhine is the primary mode of transport for the supply of the steel industries (iron

ore) (mainly in Germany) and the energy sector (coal). Important other product groups for

IWT in terms of volume are liquid fuels and petrochemical products, chemical products and

345 271 347 345 350

246 204

230 222 223

130

108

162 173 190 73

68

73 68 69

00

200

400

600

800

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Tra

nsp

ort

vo

lum

e in

to

nn

es

x m

illio

n

Transport volumes countries Rhine corridor

Netherlands Germany Belgium France Luxemburg Switzerland


building material. Containerised cargo accounts for 9% of the total volume. Figure 2.5 pre-

sents the volume of products, transported by IWT in the countries along the Rhine corridor:

Figure 2.5 Transport of product groups by IWT in 2012

Source: CCNR (2013)

Number of inland vessels

The Rhine corridor comprises the inland waterways of Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany,

Luxemburg, France and Switzerland. These countries, with the exception of Luxemburg, are

member of the CCNR, the Central Commission for the Navigation on the Rhine.

Table 2.3 gives an overview of the total fleet of the member states of the CCNR:

21%

18%

15%

14%

11%

9%

8% 4%

Distribution (volume) of transport goods on the Rhine

Ores and metal residues

Solid mineral fuels (coal)

Petroleum and petrochemicalproductsCrude minerals, construction

Chemical products

Containerised goods

Agricultural products

Food products and feed


Table 2.3 Overview of the inland waterway fleet of CCNR countries in 2012

Netherlands Germany Belgium France Switzerland Luxembourg Total

Cargo carrying vessels

General Cargo Vessel 3,414 929 1,052 962 16 9 6,382

Push Freight Barge 1,170 786 262 474 4 0 2,696

Lash Ship 1 121 0 0 0 0 122

Lighter 101 52 3 1 0 0 157

Tank Vessel 1,105 510 259 46 49 21 1,990

Push Tank Barge 44 44 5 74 2 2 171

Tank Lighter 16 12 0 0 0 0 28

Total 5,851 2,454 1,581 1,557 71(74*) 32 11,546

Push and tug boats

Push boat 187 213 75 146 1 5 627

Tug 593 131 57 11 2 1 795

Push Tug 408 75 44 0 4 6 537

Total 1,188 419 176 157 7 12 1,959

Other

Passenger Vessel 737 986 52 493

72 4 2,359

Other 2,491 0 134 3 14 7 2,650

Total 10,267 3,859 1,943 1,717 167 55 18,514

* The Port of Switzerland counts 74 Swiss barges in total. This figure differs from the inventarisation of IVR (71

cargo carrying vessels).

Source: IVR 2013

The cargo carrying fleet (11,546 ships) exists of motor vessels and convoys. The motor

vessels (general cargo vessels and tank vessels) account for over 70% of the fleet (8,372).

The convoys consist of a pusher and barges for dry bulk and liquid bulk. The convoys,

which include the push freight barges and the push tank barges, account for almost 25%

(2,867 ships).

Motor vessels can also be deployed as a combination. In such a case, motor vessel func-

tions as a pusher for barges. The use of combinations in the Rhine corridor will not be dis-

cussed separately within this study, because these combinations change per journey and

over time.

Figure 2.6 illustrates the actual fleet for the cargo carrying fleet, with a breakdown in motor

vessels and push tows.


Figure 2.6 IWT fleet in the Rhine corridor countries in 2012

Source: IVR 2013

Trends in fleet development

Figure 2.7 presents the number of new vessels for the years 2000 until 2012. On average,

174 new vessels are built per year over this period. Since the peak in 2009 (343 new ves-

sels), the number of new vessels declined. In 2012 only 85 new vessels have been deliv-

ered. No information is available on the breakdown of the new built vessels in dry cargo and

tankers.

Figure 2.7 Numbers of new built vessels for each year 2000-2012

Source: IVR, 2013

4,637

1,624 1,314 1,009 65 30

1,214

830 267

548

6 2

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Netherlands Germany Belgium France Switzerland Luxembourg

Number of vessels in Rhine corridor countries

Motor ships Push freight/tank barges

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

No

. o

f n

ew

vessels

Year

Number of yearly new vessels 2000-2012


Just before the economic crisis in 2008, the financial possibilities for ship owners to invest in

new vessels were very good (see also chapter 3). Many ship owners ordered new vessels

to modernize the fleet. The tanker fleet has to converse from single hull tankers to double

hull tankers due to new ADN-regulations (enforcement in 2018).

This conversion of the tank fleet resulted in a relatively high number of new vessels in 2009

and 2010 to respectively 96 and 120 new tanker vessels.. In 2011 and 2012, the number of

new (double hull) tanker vessels has declined to respectively 86 and 39 vessels.

The total capacity of the inland waterway fleet has increased significantly, due to the build-

ing of new vessels and only limited number of vessels that were scrapped.

Furthermore, the average tonnage of vessels has increased for more cost efficient

transport. Because of the expected growth of transport volumes, older and smaller ships

have been replaced by larger ships. In recent years, the replacement of older ships has

been stimulated due to scrapping schemes. Figure 2.8 presents the development of the

average ship size for dry cargo and tankers:

Figure 2.8 Development of the average tonnage for new build vessels between 2000 and 2012

Source: IVR, 2013

The increase of the average volume of the ships is also illustrated by figure 2.9. This figure

illustrates the development of the average ship size for motor ships and convoys (in ton-

nage) for different size classes of inland waterways (CEMT-classes IV, V and VI).

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vo

lum

e i

n t

on

es

Year

Average tonnage of vessels 2002-2012

Dry cargo Tank cargo Linear (Dry cargo) Linear (Tank cargo)


Figure 2.9 Development of the average tonnage for new build vessels 1970 1970-2020

Source: TNO (2010)2

Figure 2.8 shows that the average ship size increased by more than 40% between 1998

and 2008, based on the observation of passing ships at different inland waterways. The

figure presents a bandwidth for the expected increase of the ship size between 2008 and

2020. This bandwidth expresses two trend analyses (1) by using the linear trend for the ship

size between 1970 and 2008 and (2) by using the average annual increase of the ship size

between 1970 and 2008 as a trend.

2 TNO (2010); Fleet development inland waterway transport (Vlootontwikkeling binnenvaart)

426

946

1304

1857

477

1043

1562

2271

762

1523

2219

3109

1552

1868

2662

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Av

era

ge t

on

nag

e p

er

sh

ip (

in t

on

nes)

Year

CEMT-klasse IV: observation CEMT-klasse V: observation

CEMT-klasse VI: observation CEMT-klasse IV: prediction

CEMT-klasse V: prediction CEMT-klasse VI: prediction


Age of the fleet

Figure 2.10 illustrates the age distribution for motor vessels, based on the IVR-database.

Data for push freight/tanker barges is not available at the moment.

Figure 2.10 Age distribution (by year of construction) of motor vessels

Source: IVR, 2013

Compared to the dry cargo fleet, the tanker fleet is significantly younger. For tanker vessels,

25% of the tankers are younger than 10 years old and 50% is older than 35 years. For the

general cargo fleet is more than 55% is more than 45 years old and almost 7% is less than

10 years old. The difference in age distribution between tank vessels and general cargo

vessels is earlier explained, due to the conversion of single hull vessels to double hull ves-

sels.

2.1.3 Segmentation of ship classes

The IWT vessels for freight transport are being categorised according to the CEMT-classes.

As discussed in section 2.1.2, the cargo carrying fleet consists of 11,546 vessels; 8,372

motor vessels and 2,876 push barges (convoys). The CEMT-classes account for both cate-

gories. Annex 1 gives an overview of the characteristics of the motor vessels and push

barges, according to the CEMT-classes.

2,437

392

1,104

289

712

317

683

99

570

182

439

198

437

513

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Dry cargo

Tank

Age distribution of inland vessels


Table 2.4 presents the characteristics of the motor vessel fleet, based on the CEMT-classes

(see annex 1):

Table 2.4 Categorisation of motor vessels according to CEMT-classes in 2012

Country Number of vessels I II III IV Va VIa

Belgium 1,311 312 215 454 198 117 15

Germany 1,439 29 85 687 443 193 2

France 1,008 620 155 191 35 7 -

Luxembourg 30 3 2 6 14 3 3

Netherlands 4,519 223 825 1,467 940 906 159

Switzerland 65 2 2 4 24 33 -

Total Fleet 8,372 1,051 1,168 3,025 1,779 1,202 146

Source: SAB, processed by BCI3

On average, the fleet in Belgium and France consists of smaller vessels because of the

existing network of smaller canals.

Table 2.5 presents the characteristics of the push barges that are being used for convoy

shipments:

Table 2.5 Categorisation of large push barges according to CEMT-classes in 2012

Country Number of vessels IV Va Vb +

Belgium 267 51 196 20

Germany 830 278 552 -

France 548 137 394 17

Luxembourg 2 2 - -

Netherlands 1,214 335 846 33

Switzerland 6 6 - -

Total Fleet 2,867 811 1,975 81

Source: SAB, processed by BCI

Volume and engine power

The CEMT-classes prescribe a normative volume and engine power, but in practice, many

variations exist due to the specific preferences of the ship owners. Ships are custom made,

based on the preferences and the intended operations of the ship owner. That is why the

categories of the ships are not homogenous, but they show variations in engine power, size

and volume. Tables 2.6 and 2.7 present the average volume and engine power for inland

vessels.

3 SAB (Stichting Afvalstoffenvaardocumenten Binnenvaart) provides a database of individual ships


Table 2.6 Specifications of motor vessels in the Rhine corridor

CEMT-class No. of vessels Average volume

(tons) Average engine power

(kW)

I 1,051 361 225

II 1,168 540 291

III 3,025 953 475

IV 1,779 1,549 751

Va 1,202 2,768 1,272

Via 146 5,161 2,115

Total 8,372 1,284 621


The push barges for convoy transport are categorised in the higher CEMT-classes. For

these vessels, there are no characteristics for the volume. The table 2.7 presents the aver-

age engine power per CEMT-category:

Table 2.7 Specifications of large push barges in the Rhine corridor

CEMT-class No. of vessels Average volume (tons)

Average engine power (kW)

IV 811 1,306 1,555

Va 1,975 2,620 3,709

Vb + 81 4,533 N/A

Total 2,867 2,307 2,262


The tables 2.6 and 2.7 present the specifications for the freight carrying fleet. The economic

feasibility for LNG conversion is decided by the ratio between the investments and the lower

operational costs, due to the difference in price level between LNG and diesel. Today’s

standpoint is that the conversion to LNG is especially interesting for the larger freight carry-

ing ships CEMT-class IV and higher), because of a higher annual fuel use. Though, the

actual annual fuel use is determined by the specific fuel use (litres per hour) and the annual

operating hours of the ship. The uptake of LNG in inland shipping will be discussed in sec-

tion 2.4 and 2.5.

To complete the analysis of the specification of vessels, table 2.8 presents the average en-

gine power for the rest of the fleet in the Rhine corridor:

Table 2.8 Specifications of other vessels in the Rhine corridor

Other vessel types No. of vessels Average engine power (kW)

Push boat / Push Tug 1,164 317

Tug 795 397

Passenger 2,359 371

Other 2,650 436



2.1.4 Operational characteristics

This section will discuss the operational characteristics of IWT vessels, with a focus on fuel

consumption. Diesel is the primary fuel for inland waterway vessels. The usage of other

fuels are, until now, very limited. In this section, fuel use should is equivalent to diesel.

The fuel consumption of a ship depends on various factors, such as the ship design, the

engine and the type of operations (see also chapter 3). The study concentrates on the spe-

cific fuel use of different ship categories and the annual fuel consumption by inland water-

way transport.

Fuel use

First of all, the specific fuel depends on the design of the ship, as well as the engine design.

The engine creates the propulsion to elevate the water resistance of the ship.

Thus, the specific fuel use is related to the energy efficiency of the engine, the efficiency of

the propulsion and the water resistance of the ship. Overall, newer ships are more energy

efficient, because of a better design (shape), which reduces the water resistance of the

ship, more efficient engines and more efficient propellers.

Second, the fuel use depends on the travels the vessel makes. The fuel use for sailing on a

canal differs from sailing on a river, let alone sailing upstream or downstream. Also the wa-

ter level is an important factor, since the propeller of a ship is much more efficient for high

water than for low water. And finally, the loaded volume is an important factor for the fuel

consumption, because of the draught of the ship and the proportionate resistance in the

water.

NEA4 has published the specific fuel use for inland vessels in 2009. The study presents

average fuel use per category, based on an average operation for the load and the type of

waterway. Table 2.9 presents the specific fuel use for different ship types:

Table 2.9 Specific fuel use per CEMT category for motor vessels and convoys

CEMT Specific fuel use (litres/hour)

Motor vessels I 36.8 II 54.0 III 73.3 IVa 139.5 Va 240.8 VIa 327.2 Convoys IVa 123.9 Va 196.7 Vb+ 245.1

Source: NEA, 2009

4 NEA (2009); Cost structure inland waterway transport 2008 (Kostenkengetallen binnenvaart 2008)


The specific fuel use increases for the CEMT-categories. The table above shows that the

specific fuel consumption is in line with the average engine power and the size of the ship.

The specific fuel use for combinations is not presented in this table. When operated in a

convoy (motor vessel pushing a push barge), the specific fuel use of the motor vessel will

be higher, due to a higher pay load. For the use of motor vessels in combinations and the

tonnage of the combinations, there is no data available.

Exploitation models

The CCNR distinguishes three exploitation models for inland ships. The exploitation models

prescribe the necessary crew on a ship and the maximum sailing hours per day and per

week. The exploitation model is not permanent, but can be changed during the year by the

ship owner. Depending on the transport demand (availability of cargo) and the destination of

the cargo, the ship owner will change the exploitation category. This means that the exploi-

tation model of a ship changes over time, there is no direct relation between the ship type

and the exploitation model. Table 2.10 presents the maximum sailing hours per exploitation

model.

Table 2.10 Overview of exploitation models for inland shipping

Exploitation model Description Maximum hours per day Estimated hours per year

A1 Day-trip basis 14 hours 3,360 hours

A2 Semi continuous 18 hours 4,752 hours

B Full continuous 24 hours 8,064 hours

Source: NEA, 20095

The total fuel consumption of inland vessels can now be calculated from the following com-

ponents:

1 The specific fuel use per ship type (in tons fuel per hour)

2 The number of ships per ship type (in no. of ships)

3 The number of operating hours per year (operating hours per year)

Since the exact exploitation model of the vessels is unknown (and changes over time), a

bandwidth for the annual fuel use will be calculated. The boundaries for this bandwidth are

defined by the minimum number of operating hours (e.g. full exploitation as day-trip vessels)

and the maximum number of operating hours (e.g. full continuous sailing vessels). The cal-

culation for this bandwidth is presented in table 2.11.


Table 2.11 Annual fuel usage of inland shipping, based on three exploitation models (tons x 1,000)

Motor vessels No. of vessels (2012)

Specific fuel use (litres/hour)

Day-trip basis (3,360 hours)

Semi continuous (4,752 hours)

Full continuous (8,064 hours)

I 1,051 37 109 154 261 II 1,168 54 177 251 426 III 3,025 73 624 882 1,497 IVa 1,779 140 698 987 1,675 Va 1,202 241 814 1,151 1,953 VIa 146 327 134 190 322 Convoys 0 0 0 IVa 811 124 283 400 678 Va 1,975 197 1,092 1,545 2,622 Vb+ 81 245 56 79 134

Total 11,238 123* 3,987 5,639 9,569

Source: BCI 2014, (using SAB, IVR and NEA)

*Average fuel use for all categories

The annual fuel use for the inland waterway fleet varies between 4 million and 9.5 million

tons. This bandwidth is based on calculations for the exploitation as a day-trip vessel (low

fuel use per year) or exploitation as a full continuous vessel, and with an estimated number

of operational hours per year (table 2.13) which assumes that all the ships sail almost 90%

of the legally permitted sailing hours.

In case of the lower limit, when all the ships operate with a minimum of operating hours, the

total fuel use will be 4 million tons per year. This assumes a strong underestimation. The

upper limit of 9.5 million tons per year is the result of the maximum operating hours for each

ship, which implies an overestimation. The bandwidth of 4 – 9.5 million tons fuel use can be

narrowed. The vessels operating on day-trip basis are, in general, the smaller ships with

lower fuel use, while the ships with a higher operating profile are, in general, the larger

ships with a higher fuel use. The expected annual fuel use will be 5.5 – 8.5 million tons.

2.1.5 Conclusions

This section describes the development of inland waterway transport, the trends in fleet

development and the fuel consumption of the inland fleet. In recent years, the transported

volume shows a small increase. Nevertheless, the transport volume in 2012 is still 10% un-

der the volume of 2008. Meanwhile, the IWT fleet has expanded, both in the number of ves-

sels and the total volume of the vessels. Finally, the average volume per vessel has in-

creased, due to enlargement of scale.

The fuel consumption of the inland fleet depends on the ship size, the engine power and the

operational characteristics and exploitation of the ship. Based on the available information,

the fuel use for inland vessels in the Rhine corridor is estimated at 5.5-8.5 million tons per

year in 2012. Part of the inland waterway fleet will converse to LNG, in the future. Section

2.4 and 2.5 will focus on the possible use of LNG by the inland vessels.


2.2 Current fleet for Short sea shipping

2.2.1 Introduction

This paragraph gives an overview of the developments of short sea vessels and deep sea

vessels with activities in Northern Europe. These vessels are likely to bunker fuels in the

port of Antwerp, Zeebrugge or Rotterdam. The focus lies on the activities of the fleet in

Northern Europe, its development and operational characteristics. The analysis concludes

with an estimation for the annual fuel use of the seagoing fleet with activities in Northern

Europe.

In order to perform this analysis, different sources have been consulted, and data of various

studies has been combined. Table 2.12 below gives a short overview of the literature for

this study.

Table 2.12 Overview of the literature for the analysis of the sea going vessels


UNCTAD Review maritime transport 2013 (2013) Fleet and fleet development

Lloyd’s Register LNG-fuelled deep sea shipping (2012) Fleet and fleet development

DMA North European LNG infrastructure project

(2012)

Fleet active in Northern Europe

Fuel use of fleet in Northern Europe

IMO Updated 2000 study on greenhouse gas emis-

sions from ships (2008)

Engine power main engines and auxilia-

ry engines

Specific fuel use for engines

Recently, an update for the IMO study in Greenhouse gas has been published (June 2014).

This new publication presents new data and adjusted calculation methods for fuel use and

CO2 emission by sea going vessels. Though, the publication from 2008 provides the data,

needed for this study, on specific fuel consumption for different vessel categories.

2.2.2 Trends in fleet development for seagoing vessels

Total size of the fleet; short sea and deep sea

The UNCTAD6 reported a total fleet size of 1.6 billion tonnages (in deadweight tonnage or

dwt) in 2013. According to UNCTAD, the total volume of seagoing vessels increased by

28% between 2010 and 2013. Table 2.13 gives an overview of the total tonnage per ship

type7.

6 UNCTAD (2013); Review maritime transport 2013

7 This increase is not subject to changes in definition


Table 2.13 World fleet of sea going vessels; short sea and deep sea (in dwt x 1000)

Principal types 2010 2011 2012 2013

Fleet develop-

ment

2010-2013 (%)

Oil tankers 450,053 474,846 469,516 490,743 9%

Bulk carriers 456,623 532,039 623,006 684,673 50%

General cargo ships 108,232 108,971 80,825 80,345 -26%

Container ships 169,158 183,859 196,853 206,577 22%

Other types: 92,072 96,028 166,667 166,445 81%

• Gas carriers 40,664 43,339 44,060 44,346 9%

• Chemical tankers 7,354 5,849 23,238 23,293 217%

• Off-shore 24,673 33,227 70,767 69,991 184%

• Ferries and passenger ships 6,152 6,164 5,466 5,504 -11%

• Other/n.a. 13,229 7,450 23,137 23,312 76% World total 1,276,137 1,395,743 1,536,868 1,628,783 28%

Source: UNCTAD 2013 (Review of the Maritime transport 2010-2013)

The main increase in the total volume of sea going vessels is caused by the increase of

bulk carriers, oil tankers and container vessels. Furthermore, there is a remarkable growth

in chemical tankers and ships for the off-shore industry. The total volume of ships for gen-

eral cargo decreased by almost 30 million tons. One of the main reasons for this reduction

is the containerisation of goods.

A large part of the world fleet is operating only outside Northern Europe. For an analysis of

the fleet that does operate in European waters, DMA8 presents figures from 2010. Accord-

ing to the DMA study, the world fleet counted approximately 106 thousand ships, with a total

volume of 1.43 billion tonnages (dwt). More than 14,000 ships visit the Emission Control

Area (ECA) in Northern Europe more or less frequently. In conclusion, 13% of the world

fleet visits the ECA in Northern Europe and only 2% of the ships operate solely within this

region. The total volume of the ships that is active in the ECA accounts for 413 million dwt

(29% of the volume of the world fleet)9. Table 2.14 gives an overview of the total world fleet

and the number of ships visiting the ECA in Northern Europe.

Table 2.14 Number of ships of the global fleet and the ships with activities in ECA-Northern Europe; short sea

and deep sea

Ship types

Global

Fleet

Active in

N- Europe

100%

in ECA

50%-99%

in ECA

1%-49% in

ECA

Tanker (LNG tankers

excluded)

14,213 3,105 138 600 2,367

LNG tanker 360 69 3 0 66

Bulker & General Cargo 26,781 5,572 293 1,047 4,232

Container & Ro-Ro 7,410 1,964 190 228 1,546

Passengers 8,392 766 444 105 2,17

Miscellaneous 49,622 2,536 1166 671 699

Total 106,778 14,012 2,234 2,651 9,127

Source: DMA 2012

8 DMA (2012); North European LNG infrastructure project

9 DMA (2012); North European LNG infrastructure project


Note that there are inconsistencies in the data on total fleet development: UNCTAD data for

2010 show a total volume of the world fleet of 1.27 billion tonnage (dwt), whereas the DMA

study assumes a total volume of 1.43 billion tons. The difference between both studies ac-

counts 156 million tons (14%) This variety is explained by the used data sources by

UNCTAD and DMA; UNCTAD uses the shipping database, provided by Clarkson, and in-

cludes all ships from 100 GT and above, whereas DMA use AIS data for ship movements in

2010. The UNCTAD study shows more recent data, but does not distinguish the ships that

are active within the North-European ECA.

Age of the fleet

The average age of the world fleet is just over 20 years10. The fleet of General Cargo ships

is, on average, the oldest segment of the fleet with an average age of 22 years; more than

50% of the ships are over 20 years of age. The bulk carriers and container ships represent

the youngest fleet; for both vessel types, 50% of the ships are 0-10 years old. In recent

years, an enlargement of the ship size occurred; 35% of all the ships are 0-10 years old, but

the total volume of these ships exceed 60% of the total volume. The figures 2.11 and 2.12

present the age distribution of the world fleet by number of ships and volume.

10

UNCTAD (2013); Review maritime transport 2013


Figure 2.11 Age distribution of the world fleet by number of ships


Figure 2.12 Age distribution of the world fleet by volume


44

23

12

24

17

20

15

29

11

20

13

15

12

18

7

10

10

10

13

20

12

12

10

12

16

10

58

34

50

44

Bulk carriers

Container ships

General cargo

Oil tankers

Others

All ships

Age distribution of the world fleet by no. of ships

0–4 years 5–9 years 10–14 years 15–19 years 20 + years

49

34

22

37

23

40

16

32

13

28

20

22

11

16

10

20

13

14

13

13

10

10

10

12

11

5

44

4

34

12

Bulk carriers

Container ships

General cargo

Oil tankers

Others

All ships

Age distribution of the fleet by volume (dwt)

0–4 years 5–9 years 10–14 years 15–19 years 20 + years


The fleet of bulk carriers showed a rapid growth until 2012. The oil tankers fleet has been

renovated in the nineties, due to the replacement of the single hull vessels by double hull

vessels. The container fleet expanded in the recent decade, due to containerization. This

process of containerization also resulted in the limited replacement of the general cargo

fleet.

2.2.3 Vessel categories and characteristics

The DMA-study11 presents an overview of ships in 75 specific categories, of which 73 cate-

gories are seagoing vessels. The categories describe the type of ship, the size of the ship

(in dead weight tonnage) and specifications for the function of the ship. Table 2.15 gives an

overview of the main categories with a subdivision based on function and further specifica-

tions. Annex 2 gives a complete overview of the ship types, the number of ships in the world

fleet and the number of ships that are active in ECA Northern Europe:

Table 2.15 Categories and type of ships in the DMA database

No. Category Type No. Sub-

categories Specification

1 Tanker (LNG tankers excluded)

Chemical/Products 4 Size by dwt

Crude 5 Size by dwt

LPG 2 Size by cbm

Other tanker 2 Size by dwt

Products 5 Size by dwt

Pure Chemical 4 Size by dwt

2 LNG-tanker* LNG 2 Size by cbm

3 Bulker & General Cargo Bulker 6 Size by dwt

General cargo 5 Size by dwt

Other dry 3 Specials and reefer

4 Container & Ro-ro Container 6 Size by TEU

Ro-ro 2 Size by CEU

Vehicle (PCC) 2 Size by CEU

5 Passenger Ferry 5 Function: Pax/RoPax

Cruise 2 Size by no. of passengers

Yacht 1 6 Miscellaneous Fishing 3 Function: e.g. trawlers

Off shore 8 Function: Drilling, supply, platforms, etc.

Services 11 Function: Tugs, workboats, research

Other 6 Function: e.g. pontoons

Source: DMA 2012

*LNG-tankers are LNG carrying vessels. They form a special category for the in the DMA analysis.

11

DMA (2012); North European LNG infrastructure project


Type and function

The active fleet within the Emission Control Area (ECA) in Northern Europe counts just over

14 thousand ships (see also table 2.13). The myriad of the active fleet in Northern Europe

consists of bulk carriers, tankers and container & Ro-ro vessels. Figure 2.13 gives the dis-

tribution of the ship types that are active in Northern Europe. The DMA database gives no

insight in the specific port visits of the ship types.

Figure 2.13 Type of ships in the Northerern European fleet

Source: DMA 2012

The myriad of the ships with activities in ECA-Northern Europe are ships for general cargo

(3,060) and bulk carriers (2,050). Furthermore, the active fleet in Northern Europe consists

of 1,546 chemical tankers and just over 1000 container ships. The service ships and ferries

are mostly dedicated to the ECA. Respectively 61% and 77% of these ship types sail 100%

in the ECA-Northern Europe.

2.2.5 Operational profile and fuel usage

Average sailing days at sea

In 2008, IMO12 has performed a study for emissions by sea going vessels. Based on a

sample of 40.000 ships, they presented an overview of average sailing days per ship type

and the operating hours for the auxiliary engines. Table 2.16 presents the average sailing

and the running days for the auxiliary engine.

12

IMO (2008); Updated 2000 study on greenhouse gas emissions from ships

40%

22% 0,4%

14%

18%

5%

Active ships in ECA-Northern Europe

Bulker & General Cargo Tanker ex LNG LNG tanker

Container & Roro Miscellaneous Passenger


Table 2.16 Running days per year for main engine and auxiliary engine

Category

Days at sea (main engines)

Running days auxiliary engines

Tanker (LNG tankers ex-cluded)

211 417

LNG tanker 267 425

Bulker & General Cargo 237 410

Container & Ro-ro 238 437

Passenger 228 360

Miscellaneous 210 360

Source: IMO 2008

Auxiliary engines will be used during manoeuvres with higher risks, for example when enter-

ing a port, and for the operations for pumps, cranes and winches. For the latter operations

(in the port), onshore power supply can be used, which lowers the fuel use by auxiliary en-

gines. During sailing hours, the auxiliary engines supply the on-board electricity, among

others for cargo care (ventilation and refrigeration). Some ships are equipped with more

auxiliary engines, which explain why the number of running days exceeds the number of

days per year. Moreover, the running hours of the auxiliary engines exceed the running

hours of the main engine and form substantial factor for the total fuel use.

Annex 3 provides an overview of the days at sea and the running days for the auxiliary en-

gines per category.

Engine power and fuel use for the analyses of engine power and fuel use, the fleet will be

further categorized, according to their size. This categorization only accounts for cargo car-

riers and not for passenger ships, fishing boats, etcetera. The latter ship categories might

be interesting targets for conversion to LNG, especially passenger ships. The opportunities

of LNG for passenger ships will be addressed in the demand study.

Table 2.17 shows the definition for the categories for the cargo carrying fleet.

Table 2.17 Definition size categories for different ship types (in TEU for container vessels and cbm for all other)

Type of ship Specific function Large Medium Small

Tanker ex LNG Chemical/Products 120,000+ 20,000-60,000


Engine power

The main engine in the ship provides the propulsion of the ship. All the ships are equipped

with an auxiliary engine for electricity supply and other services on board; (crude) tankers

are also equipped with a boiler engine to heat the residual oil for the main engine and for

heating and pumping of the cargo.

This section presents an analysis of the engine powers for main engine and auxiliary en-

gines, based on the databases from the DMA-report (2012) and IMO report (2008). Annex 3

provides the complete overview of the engine power (main engine and auxiliary engine) for

each ship type.

Table 2.18 presents the average engine power for the main engine, while table 2.19 pre-

sents the average power for the auxiliary engine:

Table 2.18 Average power of the main engine per ship type and size category (in kW)

Ship type Average of fleet

Large size Medium size Small size

Tanker ex LNG 7,840 20,843 7,135 6,123

LNG tanker 30,957 37,322 24,592

Bulker & General Cargo 6,595 16,166 9,061 3,894

Container & Ro-ro 23,840 68,477 28,190 7,243

Passenger 17,922

Miscellaneous 3,030

Source: IMO 2008

Table 2.19 Average power of the auxiliary engine per ship type and size category (in kW)

Ship type Average of fleet

Large size Medium size Small size

Tanker ex LNG 607 1,133 602 538

LNG tanker 2,910 3,210 2,610

Bulker & General Cargo 453 746 541 339

Container & Ro-ro 1,362 3,081 1,580 659

Passenger 893

Miscellaneous 314

Source: IMO 2008

Container ships, passenger ships and LNG tankers have a relatively high engine power,

because they are designed for a high sailing speed. The reason for this is the desired short

trip time. For container ships, this is because of the high value of the goods and time to

marker, for LNG this is because of the heat losses of the cryogenic tanks and for passen-

gers this is related to the relative high value of time of persons.

The design speed and engine power of new ships are currently in a downward trend. This

has to do with the EEDI (Energy Efficiency Design Index) requirements and the expected

increase in future fuel costs. Also the average ship size is increasing, because energy con-

sumption per ton kilometre and other costs are lower for larger vessels.


The power of the auxiliary engines depends largely on the necessary equipment on the

ship. Crude carriers and tanker ships are also equipped with steam boilers. The boilers are

being used to heat up the residual oil for combustion and for cargo heating or pumping of

cargo. LNG carriers also use steam turbines for the propulsion, instead of a combustion

engine. These turbines are being heated up by a boiler system. The IMO study from 2008

presents an estimation of the fuel use for boiler systems, based on the expert meeting13.

Table 2.20 gives an overview of these assumptions for the fuel use of boiler systems:

Table 2.20 Fuel use for boiler engines on tankers

Ship type Volume Fuel use boiler engine

VLCC 200,000+ dwt 250 tons per discharge of the vessel

Suez Max Tankers 120-200,000 dwt 150 tons per voyage

Aframax Tankers

80-120,000 dwt 60 tons per year

Small Crude Tankers 60-79,999 dwt

10-59,999 dwt

< 9,999 dwt

30 tons per day

15 tons per day

5 tons per day

Product tankers

60,000+ dwt 20 -59,999 dwt 10 -19,999 dwt 5 -9,999 dwt -4,999 dwt

60 tons per day

50 tons per day

30 tons per day

15 tons per day

5 tons per day

LNG tankers All 190 tons per day

Source: IMO 2008

Fuel use

The annual fuel use is related to the engine power (main engine and auxiliary engine), the

running days and the energy efficiency of a ship (specific fuel oil consumption, SFOC).

Tables 2.21 and 2.22 present the average energy efficiency for the main engines and the

auxiliary engines (in g fuel / kWh) that has been used for the IMO-study:

Table 2.21 Specific fuel oil consumption for the main engine (in g fuel / kWh)

Engine age Above 15000 kW 15000- 5000 kW Below 5000 kW

< 1983 205 215 225

1984-2000 185 195 205

2001-present 175 185 195

Source: IMO 2008

13

IMO (2007); Revision of the MARPOL Annex VI and the NOx technical code - Input from the four subgroups

and individual experts to the final report of the Informal Cross Government/Industry Scientific Group of Ex-

perts


Table 2.22 Specific fuel oil consumption for the auxiliary engine (in g fuel / kWh)

Engine age Above 800 kW Below 800

Any 230 245

Source: IMO 2008

The DMA study presents the fuel use in ECA in Northern Europe. For this calculation, the

specific fuel uses were calculated for each category and for different age-categories. Table

2.23 presents the total fuel use for main engines and auxiliary engines in 2010:

Table 2.23 Fuel use per year for ship types and size categories (in tons x 1,000 per year)

Ship type Fuel use Large size Medium size Small size Unspeci-

fied

Tanker ex LNG 2,487 103 788 1,572 24

LNG tanker 38 0 38 0 0

Bulker & General Cargo 2,343 19 404 1,675 245

Container & Ro-ro 5,254 460 1,744 1,219 1,831

Passenger 416 0 0 0 416

Miscellaneous 902 0 0 0 902

Total in ECA – North Europe 11,440 583 2,973 4,465 3,419

Source: DMA 2012

2.2.6 Conclusions

In section 2.2, the fleet of seagoing vessels that are active in Northern Europe has been

described. The number of seagoing vessels with activities in Northern Europe consists of

14,021 ships. This part of the fleet is likely to bunker their fuel in the ports of Zeebrugge,

Antwerp or Rotterdam, as part of the Rhine corridor.

Furthermore, the paragraph describes the annual fuel use of seagoing vessels, and particu-

larly the vessels with activities in Northern Europe. The estimated fuel consumption is

based on the engine power per ship type and the sailing hours. The total fuel use for the

ships that were active in Northern Europe is estimated at 11 million tons fuel (MGO and

HFO) in 2010.


2.3 Prognosis for fleet development

2.3.1 Development of inland shipping

Transport volume

The development of the volume for inland waterway transport depends on the development

of the transport demand, both sea port related and continental transport and, second, on the

market share for IWT (modal split). TNO has developed different scenarios for inland wa-

terway transport until the year 210014. These long term scenarios are determined from two

variables for economic developments (high growth and low growth) and the interest in sus-

tainable development (moderate climate change and accelerated climate change). Figure

2.14 explains the points of departure for the scenarios.

Figure 2.14 Variables for scenario development

Source: TNO, 2010

Figure 2.15 below presents the development for inland waterway transport for these scenar-

ios for the period 2010-2050, based on the transported volume of 2010.

14

TNO (2012); Shipping scenarios for the delta programme (Scheepsscenario’s voor het Deltaprogramma)


Figure 2.15 Scenarios for transport volume by IWT on the Rhine between 2010 and 2050

Source: TNO, 2010

The assumptions for economic growth correspond to the long term scenarios, developed by

the Central Planning Office of the Netherlands in 2006. The high economic growth in these

scenarios is estimated at 2.1% per year, while the low economic growth is 1.2% per year.

The economic development explains the total transport demand within the Hamburg – Le

Havre range.

The assumptions for climate change are based on the long term scenarios by the Intergov-

ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013), which have been translated to the

Dutch/ Northern European situation by the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI). These

scenarios describe the expected water level in the Rhine delta, which affect the opportuni-

ties for inland waterway transport within the Rhine corridor.

Furthermore, the scenarios assume modal shift from road transport to more sustainable

modes of transport (rail and inland shipping). This modal shift is (partly) the result of the

European policies to stimulate multimodal transport within the EU.

TNO presents transport development in lower and higher volume scenarios. The bandwidth

for the high growth scenarios is 302 - 322 million tons per year in 2050. This means an av-

erage annual growth of 1.6 to 1.8% per year. The bandwidth for the low growth scenario is

between 240 and 255 million tons per year, with an average annual growth between 0.7 to

0.9%.

150

350

550

750

950

1150

1350

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Tra

nsp

ort

ed

vo

lum

e I

WT

(in

to

ns

x m

illi

on

) Transport volumes for inland waterway

Steam Pressure Warm Calm


Prognosis of the IWT fleet

Due to the expansion of the total fleet in 2008 and 2009 and the enlargement of the ships,

there is an over capacity of the volume for inland waterway transport. TNO ea.15 estimated

an overcapacity of 300 million tons for inland waterway transport on the Rhine in 2010. Re-

lated to the scenarios for the transport demand for inland waterway, a shortage of the avail-

able capacity is only expected for the high growth scenario after 2040 (see figure 2.16).

Figure 2.16 Transported volumes on the Rhine 2010-2050

Source: TNO 2010, TNO 2012

New ships can be delivered within three years; this means that there is no urgency for fur-

ther expansion of the fleet. Though, most of the ships are rather old and do not comply with

the emission norms of CCR-2. At the European level, the discussion has started to enforce

a new scrapping scheme for the older vessels. The purpose of this scheme is to accelerate

the modernization of the inland waterway fleet. The exact figures of the effect of these pro-

grammes are at the moment not available. Furthermore, little is known about the installation

of new engines or (SCR) catalysts.

15

TNO ea. (2012); Multimodal international container network (Multimodaal internationaal container netwerk)

150

350

550

750

950

1150

1350

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tra

nsp

ort

vo

lum

e IW

T (

in t

on

s x

millio

n)

Transport volumes for inland waterway

Steam Pressure Warm Calm Over capacity (2010)


Prognosis of the IWT fuel use

The total transported volume in 2012 by inland waterway transport was almost 700 million

tons, while the total fuel use of the inland waterway vessels has been estimated 5.5 – 8.5

million tons. The main driver for the future fuel use by inland waterway vessels is the ex-

pected transport volume.

Table 2.24 presents the estimated fuel use for the future years, related to the prognosis for

fuel use as presented in figure 2.16.

Table 2.14 Development of fuel use by inland vessels 2012-2035 (in million tons)

2012 2015 2020 2035

Lower band 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.6

Upper band 8.5 9.0 9.8 12.0

Source: BCI (2014) based on TNO (2012)

The band width calculated for the fuel use in 2035 ranges from 6.6 million tons to 12.0 mil-

lion tons. This widening band width is due to the combination of the estimated bandwidth for

the fuel use in 2012 (5.5-8 million tons) in combination with the diverging scenarios for the

transported volume.

The expected enlargement of the ships, in combination with the technical improvement of

vessel engines will diminish the fuel use. Thus, the expected fuel use in the future will curve

down to the lower band. On the other hand, persistent lower water levels will result in lower

capacity use and a higher fuel use per tonnage.

2.3.2 Development of seagoing transport and short sea

UNCTAD reports an overall growth of the volume of the world fleet of 28% between 2010

and 2013. This growth is directly related to an increase in international trade and the de-

mand for oversea transport of goods. Just like with IWT, the response of total fleet devel-

opment to economic changes is in delay. An illustration: The downturn on the demand for

transport volume in 2008 lead to a decline of orders for new ships in 2009. Meanwhile, the

fleet still increased. Only from 2012 onwards, the number of new deliveries starts to decline.

The DMA study explains the changes in the world fleet by expansion of the fleet and by

replacements of the older vessels. The expansion of the fleet is estimated at 2% per year,

while the replacement of older vessels is estimated at 2% per year, as well. According to

these estimations, the total fleet will increase by 35% between 2010 and 2025, due to an

increase of the average ship size. For the fleet with activities in the ECA in Europe, the ex-

pected number of vessels in 2025 is nearly 19,000.


Lloyd’s Register16 estimated an expected fleet development of 35% between 2011 and

2020 and a further growth of 18% between 2020 and 2025, measured in gross tonnage.

In 2007, an IMO17 expert group estimated the fleet development between 2006 and 2020. In

their estimations, they distinguish the fleet development for different ship types and size

categories. The average annual growth of the total fleet was estimated 3.7% per year.

The DNV study18 presents two different scenarios for the development of the fleet. The

higher growth scenario estimates an increase of the fleet between 50-60% between 2012

and 2020, whereas the lower growth scenario presents a growth of 25-30% for the same

period. The expected annual growth for the high and low scenario is respectively 6% and

3%. Applied to the fleet size according to Lloyd’s in 2012, the absolute increase of the

ocean going fleet is 560-280.

The studies of DMA, Lloyd’s register, DNV and IMO present the fleet developments for dif-

ferent time horizons. Figure 2.17 illustrates the estimated fleet development for these stud-

ies from 2010 until 2020/2025.

Figure 2.172 Expected fleet development 2010-2025

Source: Lloyd’s Register, DMA, DNV, IMO

16

Lloyd’s Register (2012); LNG-fuelled deep sea shipping 17

IMO (2007); Revision of the MARPOL Annex VI and the NOx technical code - Input from the four subgroups and individual experts to the final report of the Informal Cross Government/Industry Scientific Group of Ex-perts

18 DNV (2012); Shipping 2020

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Fle

et

vo

lum

e (

dw

t in

to

ns x

millio

n)

Year

Development of fleet volume 2010-2025

Dev. gross tonnage Lloyd's (world fleet) Dev. dead weight tonnage DMA (ECA fleet)

Dev. dead weight tonnage DMA (world fleet) Dev. gross tonnage IMO (2007)

Dev. gross tonnage DNV (high) Dev. gross tonnage DNV (low)


Lloyd’s, DMA and the IMO expert group present comparable growth figures until 2020/2025

(2-4% per year). The replacement rate of older vessels is estimated at 2%, but could turn

out to be a little higher in reality. The economic lifetime of a ship is 25-30 years, but the ac-

tual life time is much longer. The life time of the ships might go down, because innovations

and enlargement of the ship size require an accelerated depreciation rate. Consequently,

the rate of new built vessels lies between 4-7% per year.

Expected fuel use by sea going vessels

The fuel use will be estimated, based on the development of transport demand, the fleet

size and the characteristics of the fleet.

First of all, the sea going fleet with transport activities in Northern Europe consisted of 14

thousand ships. The total fuel consumption of this part of the fleet is estimated at 11 million

tons fuel (mostly MDO/MGO and HFO). For the future years, the ocean going fleet will ex-

pand with, approximately, 2-4% per year, due to an increase in international trade. Further-

more, the replacement rate of the ships varies from 2-3% per year. Table 2.25 presents the

upper and lower bound for the development of the fleet size:

Table 2.253 Upper and lower bound for fleet development sea going vessels

2012 2015 2020 2035

Lower band 14,021 14,879 16,428 22,110

Upper band 14,021 15,772 19,189 34,558

Source: Lloyd’s Register, DMA, DNV, IMO

For the period 2012-2035, the fleet will expand from 14 thousand ships to 22 – 35 thousand

ships. On average, the number of new built ships is 700-1560 per year. This estimation is

based on an increase in transport demand in Northern Europe. The expansion of the fleet

will result in a growing fuel use for sea going vessels (2-4% per year), but there are more

aspects that influence the fuel use.

The increase of the ship size and the replacement of the ships will affect the composition of

the fleet significantly. The average ship size will increase, due to enlargement of the ships.

Also the composition of the fleet will develop strongly. The growth segments for sea going

vessels are mainly product tankers, LNG (gas) tankers and container ships, while share of

crude tankers, dry bulk ships and general cargo ships will decrease. Notable is that the

ships in the growth segments have a relatively high specific fuel use, which will result in a

higher fuel use per transported ton.

Finally, improving engine technologies, ship design and naval architecture increase the en-

ergy efficiency of the ships. In this regard, the IMO has adopted the EEDI and the Ship En-

ergy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP), to impose the sector to decrease the energy

use. DNV has performed a study to assess the effect of EEDI and SEEMP for fuel use and


CO2-emissions. The expected result of the EEDI and SEEMP is a decrease in fuel usage

up to 10-40% for an individual ship19.

Although energy efficiency of the ships increases, the overall fuel use by sea going vessels

is expected to grow. DNV (2011) concludes that the fuel use by the world fleet will increase

by 40-70% for the period 2010-2035, even when energy efficiency measures have been

implemented. The calculations have been performed for the high growth and a low growth

scenario, in accordance with the IPCC-scenarios. Table 2.26 presents the development of

the fuel use from the DNV-study for the sea going fleet with activities in Northern Europe:

Table 2.264 Bandwidth for the fuel use of the sea going vessels in Northern Europe 2012-2035

2012 2015 2020 2035

EEDI/SEEMP - High

growth 11.0 11.6 12.7

18.7

EEDI/SEEMP - Low

growth 11.0 11.5 12.4 15.5

Source: BCI, 2014

The expected fuel consumption for the sea going vessel with activities in Northern Europe is

expected to grow at the same pace as the fuel consumption of the world fleet. Table 2.28

shows that the fuel use of these ships varies from 15.5-18.7 million tonnes in 2035. The

main driver for the increasing fuel consumption is the increasing transport demand. Due to

the energy efficiency schemes for the shipping industry, the increase in fuel use will be

curbed.

2.4 Current and expected LNG fleet in IWT and

Short Sea Shipping

In this section an overview is given of the current and expected LNG fleet in Inland Water

Transport (IWT) and Short Sea Shipping (SSS)20. The following subsections display the

amount of LNG propelled vessels for IWT and SSS in the regions of the Rhine corridor and

in North West Europe. Although their propulsion makes use of LNG, LNG carriers are not

specifically treated in this study.

Globally there are about 370 LNG carriers in operation, of which 260 have steam turbines

able of burning Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) or boil-off gas. Another 60 LNG carriers are equipped

as dual-fuel. 21

19

DNV, 2011; Assessment of IMO mandated energy efficiency measures for international shipping 20

In section 2.3 information is given on the total fleet in IWT and SSS, this section is focusing on the vessels

using LNG for propulsion of the vessel 21

Visser, A. (2012), World Fleet of LNG Carriers. ABB (2014), Reference list LNG carriers.


The following table presents an overview of sources used in this analysis.

Table 2.27 Overview of the literature for the analysis on current and expected LNG fleet in IWT and Short Sea

Shipping


CCNR LNG IWT Project Database (2014) Database of current and planned LNG

vessels in IWT

DNV LNG for Shipping – Current status (2014) Database of current and planned LNG

vessels in Maritime shipping

DLH (ea) LNG as an alternative fuel for the operation of

ships and heavy-duty vehicles (2014)

Forecast for LNG usage in IWT and

SSS

Panteia (ea) Contribution to Impact Assessment of

measures for reducing emissions of inland

navigation (2013)

Forecast for LNG usage in IWT

SER Duurzame Brandstofvisie met LEF: Deelrapport

Brandstoftafel Scheepvaart

Forecast for LNG usage in IWT and

Maritime

Lloyd’s Register LNG-fuelled deep sea shipping (2012) Forecast for LNG usage in Maritime

shipping

DMA North European LNG infrastructure project

(2012)

Forecast for LNG usage in Maritime

shipping

PWC Updated 2000 study on greenhouse gas emis-

sions from ships (2008)

Forecast for LNG usage in Maritime

shipping

2.4.1 LNG propelled IWT vessels

The number of current and expected LNG propelled IWT vessels in the Rhine Corridor are

displayed in the following table. The number of LNG-fuelled IWT ships is limited. Currently,

only 4 LNG propelled IWT vessels are operating in Europe, 14 more are either in production

or in planning. Of the 4 LNG propelled IWT vessels in Europe, all four operate on the Rhine

and Belgian and Dutch Inland Waterways. Of the 14 LNG propelled IWT vessels in produc-

tion or in planning, nine will operate on the Rhine. The other five ships will operate on the

Northern German Waterways or on the Danube. The four ships that are currently in use sail

between the seaports and the inland ports along the Rhine22:

The MS Argonon sails between Rotterdam and Antwerp and storage depots in the

Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Switzerland. Bunkering is done in the Seaports.

Greenstream and Green Rhine sail exclusively for one client between Rotterdam and

storage depots along the Rhine (up to Basel). Bunkering is performed in Rotterdam.

The MS Eiger sails between ports in the upper Rhine area (Mannheim, Strasbourg /

Kehl, Ottmarsheim and Basel / Weil) and the seaports Antwerp and Rotterdam. It is un-

known where the ships bunker.

It is currently unknown where on the Rhine the planned ships will sail.

Most ships currently sailing on LNG are chemical tankers. The ships that are planned or in

production are more diverse in nature. About half are again tankers, but the newly devel-

22

Source: CCNR 2014 and websites companies.


oped ships also involve some container and Ro-ro vessels. All current vessels and most of

the planned vessels are partly financed by a public authority.23

Table 2.28 Currently operating and planned IWT vessels with LNG

Ship Ship type Engine type Engine power

propulsion

Delivered 2014 [kW] MTS Argonon Chemical Tanker 2x Caterpillar 2,500 Greenstream Chemical Tanker 4x Scania 300 kW 1,200 Green Rhine Chemical Tanker 4x Scania 300 kW 1,200 Eiger Container Vessel 2x Wärtsilä 6L20DF 2,200 Planned/ in production

Damen River Tanker 1145 EcoLiner 1x Caterpillar 1,250 Multi-purpose Ro-Ro Ro-Ro Unspecified 1,200 I-Tankers 1403 and 1404 Chemical Tanker Unspecified 1,320 Combined tanker LNG-MGO Tanker Unspecified 1,320 LNG Tanker Chemical Tanker 1 x Wärtsilä 8L20DF 1,400 LNG Inland Tankers Chemical Tanker 1 x Wärtsilä 8L20DF 1,320 LNG Future Pusher Pusher Unspecified 1,320 Sirocco Chemical Tanker Unspecified 1,320 Gas-electric Container Vessel LNG SI-electric 1,200

Source: CCNR (2014)

Although much has been written on the introduction of LNG in IWT, there are only a few

concrete forecasts on the uptake of LNG as a fuel type:

In a recent study for the Dutch Fuel Vision for 2050, experts in IWT were consulted on

their expectations for LNG uptake. They ranged the possible LNG uptake between 9%

and 25% (SER 2014).

In a recent impact assessment led by Panteia on greening of Inland Navigation, LNG

was included as a measure for a stage 5 emission level (NOx 0.4 g/kWh, PM 0.01

g/kWh). LNG was found to be suitable for application in newly built vessels exceeding

110 m in length with a capacity of 2,750 ton or more, and in push boats with an engine

power exceeding 2000 kW. Conversion to LNG is further economical for vessels ex-

ceeding 135 m (or approx. 5000 t). In this scenario, uptake could amount for as much as

50% of all capacity.

Based on the above mentioned Impact Assessment, DLR ea. developed two scenarios for

LNG uptake. The study considers LNG to be a viable option for new build vessels of with a

capacity of 2,500 ton or more.

In a moderate scenario, 50% of new build ships larger than 2,500 t between 2014 and

2030 with LNG will be equipped with LNG. Furthermore, 10% of the container and tank-

er fleet (larger than 2,500t) will be retrofitted. Total share of LNG is 15% in 2030.

In an Accelerated scenario, 75% of new build ships larger than 2,500 t between 2014

and 2030 with LNG will be equipped with LNG. Furthermore, 50% of the container and

tanker fleet (larger than 2,500t) and 24% of the existing freighters will be retrofitted. To-

tal share of LNG in 2030 is 30%.

23

Source: CCNR 2014. It is unknown for which part of the total investments were financed by public sources.


The following table presents an overview of different forecasts for LNG uptake in 2015,

2020 and 2035. Please note that most forecasts only take into account shares for the years

2020 and 2030. The numbers presented in below table therefore consist of extrapolations of

forecasts mentioned in the studies.

Table 2.29 Scenarios for LNG uptake in 2015, 2020 and 2035

LNG share 2015 2020 2035

Minimum 0% 4% 12%

Maximum 0% 15% 50%

Average 0% 7% 34%

Source: Calculations TNO based on CCNR 2014, SER (2014), Panteia ea. (2013) and DLR ea. (2014)

The forecast includes both new built and retrofit vessels, and no division is available. Ex-

pectations by experts is that retrofitting IWT vessels to LNG will be most suitable for push

barges, partly because installing an LNG tank will not influence the loading capacity of the

vessel, and because these vessels have a high fuel usage (see chapter 3). The demand for

retrofit and new built will be further discussed in the Demand Study.

2.4.2 LNG propelled SSS vessels

According to recent figures from DNV (2014), the number of LNG-fuelled vessels is ex-

pected to increase rapidly. The currently global operational LNG fleet in consists of 48 ves-

sels. Another 50 vessels are scheduled for delivery by the end of 2018, see figure 2.18.

Figure 2.18 Current and expected development of LNG-fuelled fleet, excluding LNG carriers and inland

barges

Source: DNV (2014)

As shown in Figure 2.19, the largest share of this fleet is dominated by regional ferries, pa-

trol vessels and platform supply vessels (PSV). Taking the planned ships into account (situ-


ation of the year 2018), more than 60% of the LNG-fuelled vessels belong to this group of

vessels. However, it is also observed that a growing share of the LNG vessels is expected

for container ships, general cargo ships, chemical tanker as well as Ro-ro and RoPax.

Figure 2.19 Breakdown of LNG-fuelled fleet by vessel type for the current and planned fleet (short) sea ship-

ping

Source: DNV, 2014

Due to stricter emission control regulations, the largest number of these LNG ships is ex-

pected to be concentrated in Europe and North America. LNG-fuelled ships are especially

beneficial in ECA regions. In the order books, it is confirmed that the majority of the LNG-

fuelled ships (approx. 56) will operate in Norway and the Baltic Sea. Vessels from Norway

are partly financed through a NOX fund. The NOX fund supported to cover 80% of the addi-

tional investment costs for installing an LNG vessel. Precondition for subsidy was that ves-

sels only operate in Norwegian waters. In total, 49 vessels are partly financed by the NOx

fund.24

All vessels currently sailing in Europe, and most of the ships in development, are owned by

Norwegian carriers, and are primarily sailing in the Baltic area. About 11 vessels in devel-

opment are owned by other ship owners that are primarily based in the North Sea area.

24

NHO (2013), The Norwegian NOx Fund – how does it work and results so far


Figure 2.20 Breakdown of European LNG-fuelled fleet by country of operator

Source: TNO calculations based on DNV 2014

Narrowing on the Rhine area

Based on the type of vessel and the owner of the vessels a selection was made of ships

that are relevant for the Rhine area. The selection was made based on the country of op-

erator and the vessel type. Firstly, ships operating in US were excluded. The vessels oper-

ating under US flag are relative small Ro-ro ships, and are assumed to sail short sea in US

waters. For the other (European) ships, service vessels (such as patrol vessels, icebreakers

or PSV) and the main part of the passenger ferries were excluded from the analysis. These

vessels all sail under Norwegian (or Finnish) flag and are assumed to sail mainly in Norwe-

gian waters. The other vessels are assumed to sail between different ports in the North-

European area and were thus deemed relevant for the analysis. These ships sum up to 22

short sea vessels (see Table 2.30).

Table 2.30 Existing and planned LNG fuelled vessels relevant to the Rhine area.

Current Planned

Car/passenger ferry 4 Ro-Ro 4 General Cargo 2 2 LPG carrier 3 Chemical tanker 2 Gas carrier 2 Container Ship 2 Product tanker 1

Total 2 20

Source: TNO assumption based on DNV 2014


Estimates up to 2035

Forecasts for LNG uptake in sea shipping vary significantly and are largely dependent on

several drivers which will be discussed in chapter 3. Table 2.31 presents an overview of

LNG penetration in shipping (dwt). Many sources such as DNV (2012), SER (2014) and

Lloyds (2012) foresee an exponential growth path for LNG uptake. The uptake however is

largely dependent on drivers such as the price difference between LNG and diesel, which is

discussed in chapter 3.

Table 2.31 Scenarios for LNG uptake until 2030 for short sea shipping

2015 2020 2035

Minimum (PWC, 2012 frozen scenario) 0% 1% 4% Maximum (DMA) 0% 15% 40% Average 0% 5% - 8% 20% - 26%

Sources: TNO calculations based on DNV (2012), Lloyds (2012), PWC (2013), SER (2014)

2.5 Current and expected LNG use per vessel cate-

gory

2.5.1 Current and expected LNG use for IWT

Using information on the LNG propelled vessels from section 2.4 about the current fleet

calculations were made on the total fuel usage of LNG propelled vessels. This calculation is

based on:

the engine size of the vessel;

the average power usage of the engine (60% to 80% depending on the ship type);

the energy efficiency of the engine (roughly 40%);

the total operating hours of the motor of the vessel (4,700 for semi-continue operations

and 6,000 for continued usage);

the energy content of the fuel (49 MJ per kg LNG).

Table 2.32 presents the outcome of the analysis. In the Rhine corridor currently approxi-

mately 4 kton LNG per year is used by Inland Navigation. Including the planned capacity

this increases to 10 kton. This fuel usage is only a fraction of the total fuel consumption in

the Rhine Area (5.5 to 8.5 million. ton).


Table 2.32 LNG usage by inland vessels for the current and planned fleet

Ship Ship type Engine type Total LNG usage

Delivered 2014 [ton]

MTS Argonon Chemical Tanker 2x Caterpillar 1,439

Greenstream Chemical Tanker 4x Scania 300 kW 592

Green Rhine Chemical Tanker 4x Scania 300 kW 592

Eiger Container Vessel 2x Wartsila 6L20DF 1,616

Total 2014

4,239

Planned/ in production

Damen River Tanker 1145 EcoLiner 1x Caterpillar 700

Multi-purpose Ro-ro Ro-Ro Unspecified 504

I-Tankers 1403 and 1404 Chemical Tanker Unspecified 651

Combined tanker LNG-MGO Tanker Unspecified 651

LNG Tanker coaster Chemical Tanker 1 x Wärtsilä 8L20DF 691

LNG Inland Tankers Chemical Tanker 1 x Wärtsilä 8L20DF 651

LNG Future Pusher Pusher Unspecified 651

Sirocco Chemical Tanker Unspecified 651

Gas-electric Container Vessel LNG SI-electric 504

Total

5,654

Total 2014 and planned 9,893

Source: TNO calculations based on CCNR 2014

In the forecast on LNG uptake, no information is given on the average size of the vessel. A

first calculation of the total LNG usage up to 2035 based on the range for total fuel usage

from section 2.3 and the different uptake scenario’s from section 2.4 is presented in the

table below. As shown in table, the range is enormous: for the year 2035 it ranges from 0.8

to 6.0 ton.

Table 2.33 Expected LNG usage by IWT for the years 2015, 2020 and 2035 (mln ton)

LNG share 2015 2020 2035

Minimum 0 0.2- 0.4 0.8- 1.4

Maximum 0.0 0.9- 1.5 3.3- 6

Average 0.0 0.4- 0.7 2.2- 4.1

Source: TNO calculation based on TNO (2012), CCNR (2014), SER (2014), Panteia ea. (2013),

DLR (2014), DNV (2012), Lloyds (2012), PWC (2013)

2.5.2 Current and expected LNG use for Short Sea Shipping

The LNG usage for short sea shipping is calculated using the same methodology as Inland

Shipping. As shown in the table, the fuel usage differs extensively per type of vessel.

Smaller service vessels (tug boats, patrol vessels) use significantly less fuel (1,000 to 1,200

ton per year) than for instance short sea container vessels or chemical tankers (around

6,000 ton per year).


Table 2.34 LNG usage for selected ships for different short sea shipping types

Ship type

Engine power

propulsion

Average power (incl.

aux. power)

Days at sea Operation

Engine efficiency

Fuel energy LNG consumption

[kW] [%] [hrs/year] [%] [MJ/hr] [kg/hr] [ton/year]

Car/passenger ferry 4,400 30% 350 8,400 44% 10,800 220 1,851

PSV 4,400 30% 350 8,400 44% 10,800 220 1,851

Patrol vessel 4,000 30% 200 4,800 44% 9,818 200 962

General Cargo 2,500 70% 200 4,800 44% 14,318 292 1,403

RoPax 8,400 60% 300 7,200 44% 41,236 842 6,059

Container Ship 12,000 70% 200 4,800 48% 63,000 1,286 6,171

Ro-ro 5,400 50% 300 7,200 44% 22,

lng masterplan for...

Documents