lng business in india - globallnghub.com · the jacket is a tubular steel structure with ... •...
TRANSCRIPT
Topics
• Gas Demand / Supply Balance in India.• Sector wise demand & sensitivity to price.• Pricing of LNG ( Henry Hub , NBP, Long term )• Pipeline Infrastructure.• Regasification Terminal Infrastructure • LNG FSRU
Business Environment
The share of natural gas in the energy mix of India is expected to increase to 20% in 2030 as compared to 11% in 2010.
The natural gas demand is all set to grow significantly at a CAGR of 6.8% from 242.6 MMSCD in 2012‐13 to 746 MMSCD in 2029‐30.
LNG imports in India are expected to increase from 44.6 MMSCD in 2012‐13 to 214 MMSCD in 2029‐30. The increase of LNG imports would translate to significant increase in LNG tonnage requirements
2010
2030
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural Gas Supply/ Demand
146167
196
244
300
367384 389 394 400
431 437 442 448 454 461 467 471
243265
290326
378409
438465
490516
545571
598626
654684
714746
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Supply (MMSCD)
Demand (MMSCD)
Consolidated segment wise demand MMSCD 2012‐13 2016‐17 2021‐22 2026‐27 2029‐30
Power 86.50 158.88 238.88 308.88 353.80
Fertilizer 59.86 96.85 107.85 110.05 110.05
City Gas 15.30 22.32 46.25 67.96 85.61
Industrial 20.00 27.00 37.00 52.06 63.91
Petrochem/Refinery 54.00 65.01 81.99 103.41 118.85
Sponge Iron Steel 07.00 08.00 10.00 12.19 13.73
TOTAL 242.66 378.06 516.97 654.55 746.03
Power and fertilizer sectors is expected to remain highly sensitive to the price at which the entities in these sectors are able to procure gas.
The demand from other consuming sectors (Industrial user segment and city gas distribution) is expected to remain relatively resistant to the price levels at which gas becomes available
Consolidated source wise supply of Natural Gas
MMSCD 2012‐13 2016‐17 2021‐22 2026‐27 2029‐30
Domestic Sources 101.1 156.7 182 211 230
LNG Imports 44.6 143.0 188 214 214
Gas Imports 0 0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Total 145.7 299.7 400 454 474
LNG imports in the country would rise steadily. Since domestic gas production has not kept pace as envisaged in the plan , LNG imports needs to be enhanced in order to maintain adequate natural gas supplies.
The steady increase of LNG imports would create demand of LNG tonnage (bringing LNG to India).
Note: 3.6 MMSCD = 1 MMTPA
Price Sensitivity Analysis for Indian LNG Market
LNG Price (MMBTU) DEMAND(MMSCD)
UTILIZATION
16‐17 USD 45 Industries , CNG for Transportation
13‐14 USD 91 Additionally Refineries & Industrial Power Generation
11‐12 USD 126 Additionally Peak Shaving Power Plants
8‐10 USD 203 Additionally Base Load Power Plant & Fertilizers
Gas Pricing (Index Based )
• In North America Henry hub (A trading location near Louisiana) is considered as the bench mark price for gas market and hence any LNG pricing is reference to Henry hub pricing
• Typically LNG pricing in UK market was linked to NBP (national balancing point) a virtual trading location for sale and purchase of natural gas.
Long Term LNG Pricing – Relationship With Oil
• LNG pricing linearly linked to crude oil price is the traditional LNG pricing formula in Asia
• PLNG = A * P Crude Oil + B
Where PLNG = Price of LNG in USD/MMBTUA = Slope of LineP Crude Oil = Price of crude oil in USD/ BBLB = Constant in USD/MMBTU
• Typically A = 0.125 to 0.16 and B= 0.70 to 0.90
• At A = 0.16 and B = 0, LNG is equivalent to crude oil in USD/MMBTU terms
LNG Value Chain CostsExploration & Production
Liquefaction Shipping Regasification & Storage
$0.5‐$1.0 / MMBTU $0.8‐1.20/MMBTU $0.4‐ $2.5 / MMBTU $0.3‐$0.5 / MMBTU
Total Cost = $ 2.00 ‐ $ 5.20 Total with 30% Cost escalation = $ 2.60 ‐ $ 6.30
Challenges in creation of Pipeline Infrastructure
• Resistance from farmers & land owners.• Forest & Environment Clearances.• Lack of customers for expensive RLNG in theplanned pipeline routes.
• Political Issues.
LNG Terminals Operational / Under Construction
2014 2017 2020
Operational MMTPA MMTPA MMTPA
Dahej Petronet LNG 10.0 15.0 20.0
Hazira Hazira LNG (Shell/Total) 3.5 5.0 5.0
Dabhol RGPPL 3.3* 5.0 5.0
Kochi Petronet LNG 5.0 5.0 5.0
Total 21.8 30.0 35.0Under Construction 2018 2020
Ennore IOCL / TIDCO 5.0 5.0
Mundra GSPC/Adani 5.0 5.0
Gangavaram Petronet LNG 5.0
Total 10.0 15.0
Grand Total 21.8 40.0 50.021
Probable LNG Terminals
2020* Remarks
Possible MMTPA
Kakinada GAIL / GDF Suez /Shell 2017/18 5.0 FSRU
Kodinar HPCL / Shapoorji 2019/20 5.0 Onshore
Jaffarabad Swan Energy 2018/19 5.0 FSRU
Dhamra Adani / IOC/ GAIL 2019/20 5.0 Onshore
Kolkata Hiranandani (H Energy) 2018/19 5.0 FSRU
Grand Total 25.0
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Ennore LNG
Dabhol
Kochi
Hazira
Dahej
GAIL & Shell FSRU
Mundra
Adani (Dhamra)
H Energy FSRU
SWAN FSRU
India’s LNG Terminal & Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure
Gangavaram
Conclusion
• The LNG imports are gradually going to tripleover the years ( at present 14. 5 MMTPA) .
• Pipeline infrastructure is key to growth of LNGimports.
• Pricing concerns remains but reliability andenvironmental concerns including supportfrom Government will enhance affordability ofRLNG in the country.
FSRU
• An FSRU is a LNG vessel, moored at a location.• It has the capability to accommodate the berthing of LNG vessels for transferring cargo.
• It stores LNG and then regasifies LNG from storage.
• It conditions the vaporized LNG in order to meet the gas quality conditions specified by the market.
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FSRU
• It connects to the delivering pipeline and meters send‐out and accounts for process boil‐off.
• It provides for the necessary monitoring and control systems to ensure safe and reliable operation
• It has accommodation facilities for the FSRU crew that work round‐the‐clock.
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Why a FSRU ?
• Ability to provide high pressure gas directly from the ship into land‐based gas distribution networks .
• Reception terminal and the land‐based gasification & distribution facility not required.
• Ability to provide Gas/Clean energy to small and remote locations .
• Circumnavigates facility planning constraints and allows gas to be provided in locations where safety and environmental considerations apply Energy / Gas needs but NIMBY (“Not in my back yard”) .
• Possibility to deploy the unit rapidly where needed (Summer/Winter)
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Disadvantages of FSRU• Vulnerable to supply disruptions during heavy weather when LNG tankers are unable to berth at an FSRU.
• Operational risks during bad weather.• Faster deterioration of FSRU when compared with a shore based terminal.
• Periodical maintenance (Dry docking) could disrupt supply of R‐LNG for a couple of weeks.
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FSRU Issues • FSRU terminals receive same degree of scrutiny from Government regulators as their shore based counterpart.
• Opposition from recreational and commercial fishing interest on grounds that FSRU’s ORV will harm marine flora and fauna.
• Security issues, FSRU could be a target to a terrorist attack.
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LNG Transfer for FSRU in Offshore Environment
• FSRU : Moored using either a yoke or a turret system
• (A) Submerged Turret Loading (deep water)• (B) Yoke Mooring System (shallow water)
• GBS ( For Shallow Depths): Rests on the sea bed
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FSRU using a Submerged Turret Loading
• Turret permits the FSRU to weathervane as wind and sea conditions dictate.
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Submerged Turret Loading
• LNG is regasified directly on the tanker and transferred from the tanker using the Submerged Turret Loading (STL) buoy system.
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Yoke Mooring System
• YMS is attached to the stationary mooring tower and consists of the jacket, the mooring head and the yoke. The jacket is a tubular steel structure with four legs that attach to four piles driven into the seafloor. The mooring head on top of the jacket supports the tubular steel yoke that connects to the FSRU. The yoke has a ballast system that acts as a counterweight and restores the FSRU to equilibrium. The YMS is the preferred technology choice for mooring vessels similar to the FSRU in shallow waters, i.e. 90 feet.
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Gravity Based Structure (GBS)
• GBS, comprised of concrete structures that sit on the sea bed and contain the LNG storage tanks.
• The concrete caisson will provide the secondary containment in the event of a leak in the primary tank.
• This application requires that the facility be located in relatively shallow water .
• No requirement for a mooring, as the entire structure rests on and is supported by the sea floor.
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LNG Transfer Options for FSRU in Harbour Conditions
Side by side berth using flexible.
Side by side berth using chikson.
Across a berth
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Regasification Process
• The equipment for regasifying the LNG, along with gas turbines for electricity generation, are located on the FSRU’s deck. Most common type of LNG Vaporisers in use are as follows :
• 1) Shell and Tube type Vaporizers (STVs),• 2) Open Rack Vaporizers (ORVs),• 3) Submerged Combustion Vaporizers (SCVs),• 4) Combined Heat and Power units with SCVs, and• 5) Other types, i.e. Ambient air‐Heated Vaporizers.
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Factors for choice of Regasification Technology
• The most significant factors for consideration for an FSRU regasification technology are:
• Availability and quality of seawater,• Size of equipment relative to deck space available
• Capital cost and fuel cost, and• Environmental issues such as air and water emissions
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Source
• Report for Broadwater FSRU project.• Advanced production and loading (STL) website / written material by STL .
• Lloyds LNG Seminar hand out.
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