1. lafur Andri RagnarssonLIVING IN THE FUTUREPresentation 16.09.2014

2. LIVING IN THE FUTURElafur Andri RagnarssonFounder and Chief Software Architect at BetwareAdjunct Professor at Reykjavk University 3. AEGOS 4. NEW TECHNOLOGY 5. Written March 4th 2013 6. TECHNOLOGYTRENDS 7. ADJACENT POSSIBLEWHEN ALLTHE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES ANDCONDITIONS ARE READY,NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE 8. EXPONENTIALGROWTH 9. 30 DOUBLINGS= BILLION 10. Source: (Christensen, 2000)The DisruptiveInnovation TheoryNew organisation can use relatively simple, convenient,low-cost innovations to create growth and triumph overpowerful incumbents 11. DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGYTHATCHANGESEVERYTHING 12. Stephen Elop,CEO Nokia 13. In 2002 Nokia had 35% ofthe worlds mobile marketIn 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of theworlds smartphone market 14. Then this guy comes along 15. The iPhone Effect 16. How does thecompetitionrespond? 17. And the response 18. The Arrogance of the PresentWe base our judgement on facts from the past,not possibilities of the future 19. WE TEND TOLOOK BACKTHEUNKNOWNDAWN OF MAN FUTURE 20. Telephone (1876)"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings tobe seriously considered as a means ofcommunication. The device is inherently of novalue to us."- Western Union internal memo, 1876. 21. "I think there is a world market for maybe fivecomputers.- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943Computers (1943) 22. February 11th 2011, Nokia announceda partnership with Microsoft 23. http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-bigger-than-microsoft-2012-2 24. Early 2011, Elop said in a memo they werestanding on a burning platform 25. Resources, Processes and ValuesTheoryRe sour c e s (what a firm has),Proc e s s e s (how a firm does its work), andVa lue s (what a firm wants to do)collectively defines an organizations strengths as well asweaknesses and blind spotsSource: (Christensen, 2000)The RPV Theory 26. Firms thatsucceed in one generation of innovationalmost inevitable become hamstrung by theirown success and thus doomed tolose out in the next wave of innovationSource: (Christensen, 2000)The Innovators Dilemma 27. DISRUPTION AHEAD 28. UNIVERSALACCESS TOSERVICES ANDOTHER PEOPLE 29. 2,6 BILLION PEOPLE ARE CONNECTED TO THE INTERNET3 BILLION NEW MINDS WILL CONNECT 30. 2000MUSICPICTURESCOMMUNICATIONSMARTPHONESTV SHOWSMOVIESBOOKSTHE DIGITAL DECADE2010 31. THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARDiMaciPhoneMac OS 9.0.4500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB MemoryScreen - 786K pixelsStorage - 30GB Hard DriveiOS 4.01 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB MemoryScreen - 614K pixelsStorage - 32GB Flash Drive2000 Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple201017 32. THE WORLD IN YOU POCKETBEFORE NOWDesktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable 33. CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCEBEFORE NOWKeyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture 34. Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/webrevenu/ 35. HIERARCHAL NETWORK20th Century 21th Century 36. FUNDAMENTALSHIFTINPEOPLESBEHAVIOUR 37. OURDEVICESAREGATEWAYSTOTHECLOUD 38. FUNDAMENTALCHANGE INCONSUMINGCONTENTPicture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo 39. FUNDAMENTALCHANGE INPRODUCINGCONTENTPicture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo 40. FUNDAMENTALCHANGE INDOING BUSINESS 41. FUNDAMENTALCHANGE INDOING BUSINESS 42. FUNDAMENTALCHANGE INDOING BUSINESS 43. 25CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOURBEFORE NOWVideostores, DVD,late fees, clutterEverything, anywhere,anytime (almost) 44. CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOURBEFORE NOWPrinted books, magazinesDigital, automaticallydelivered, interactive 45. OWNERLESS LIFESTYLEBEFORE NOWOwn, store, clutter Rent, subscribe, stream 46. TRANSFORMATION3D PRINTING, ROBOTSMASS CUSTOMISATION, DESIGNPERSONAL STREAMINGUSER REVIEWABUNDANCEINDUSTRYMASS PRODUCTIONBROADCASTINGGATEKEEPERSSACRISTY20. CENTURY 21. CENTURY 47. DECADE OF THETRANSFORMATIONSBUSINESS MODELSOF THE 20thCENTURYBUSINESS MODELSOF THE 21thCENTURY2010 2020 48. OPPORTUNITYFlickr photo: Arkadyevna 49. lafur Andri RagnarssonLIVING IN THE FUTUREhttp://www.olafurandri.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/olandri@olandri