livent corporation first quarter 2020 earnings call …...first quarter 2020 earnings call script...
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Livent Corporation
First Quarter 2020 Earnings Call Script
May 11, 2020
As Prepared for Delivery
Q1 2020 Conference Call
Introduction – Daniel Rosen
Thank you, Tina. Good evening everyone and welcome to
Livent’s first quarter 2020 earnings call. Joining me today
are Paul Graves, President and Chief Executive Officer
and Gilberto Antoniazzi, Chief Financial Officer.
The slide presentation that accompanies our results, along
with our earnings release, can be found in the Investor
Relations section of our website. The prepared remarks
from today’s discussion will be made available after the
call.
Following our prepared remarks, Paul and Gilberto will be
available to address your questions. We would ask that
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any questions be limited to two per caller. We would be
happy to address any additional questions after the call.
Before we begin, let me remind you that today’s
discussion will include forward-looking statements that are
subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning
specific factors, including but not limited to those factors
identified in our release and in our filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission. Information
presented represents our best judgment based on today’s
information. Actual results may vary based upon these
risks and uncertainties.
Today’s discussion will include references to various non-
GAAP financial metrics. Definitions of these terms, as well
as a reconciliation to the most directly comparable
financial measure calculated and presented in accordance
with GAAP, are provided on our investor relations website.
And with that, I’ll turn the call over to Paul.
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Livent Operational Response to COVID-19 Slide 3: Paul Graves
Thank you, Dan, and good evening everyone. There are a
few key topics we want to address today, all of which will
be discussed in the context of the novel coronavirus
pandemic and its current and potential future impact on
Livent. Before doing so I would like to give a special
thanks to all of our Livent employees around the world.
Their hard work and resilience have allowed us to
maintain a safe and healthy working environment, while
continuing to operate and serve our customers. We have
asked a lot of them, and truly appreciate their focus and
commitment during these challenging times for us all.
To begin, we are pleased to state that all of our production
facilities around the world are fully operational. Apart from
a two-week stoppage in Argentina due to a mandatory
national quarantine, and an extended lunar new year
break in China at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak,
all of our sites have continued to operate, albeit with
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additional health and safety protocols. Our ability to
operate through the pandemic has been a testament to
the strong and dedicated teams we have in place around
the world.
Second, as the coronavirus began to spread outside of
China, it became clear to us that the potential impact on
our business, as well as the broader market, would require
us to take a more disciplined approach to cash flow
management and liquidity. In March, we made the
decision to suspend all capital expansion work globally.
This action allows us to cut our forecasted capital
spending in 2020 by half, to approximately 115 million
dollars. While we remain fully committed to our long-term
capacity expansion plans, temporarily suspending all
capital projects was the prudent decision to take in the
current environment. In addition, we worked closely with
our relationship lenders to amend our credit facility and
increase our maximum allowed net leverage to 6 times
EBITDA through 2020, versus 3.5 times previously. We
believe this amendment to our revolver will provide ample
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liquidity through the challenging near-term environment.
Gilberto will provide more details in his comments.
And third, we will share our latest views on the lithium
market. Specifically, what the coronavirus pandemic has
done so far, what we expect the impact to be in 2020, and
potential longer-term implications.
Starting on slide 3 of our prepared slides, given Livent’s
presence in China, and Asia more broadly, we have been
addressing the coronavirus outbreak since early February,
when we formed a regional pandemic response team and
implemented various actions to keep our employees safe.
By taking decisive early steps and diligently monitoring the
situation, we were able to safely resume operations in
China following the extended lunar new year holiday. This
early start also meant we could react quickly and
confidently at our sites outside of China once it became
clear that we needed to do so. We maintain the same
safety protocols today and have been able to run without
any major issues in China since then. Even during the
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period when there were significant logistical challenges in
moving people and products across provincial borders in
China, we were able to leverage our global supply chain to
minimize disruption in delivering products to customers.
Informed by our experience in Asia, Livent was able to
quickly form a Global Pandemic Response Team in early
March when the worldwide spread and severity of the
virus became clear. Since then, we continue to prioritize
the safety and well-being of our employees, customers
and communities around the world.
We also took actions to safely keep all of our
manufacturing sites running. Many of the lithium products
we make are essential, not only in energy storage, but in
critical applications that the world needs now more than
ever – from pharmaceutical ingredients and industrial
disinfectants, to components used in vital medical
equipment. To ensure that we could continue operations
without compromising on health and safety, we worked
closely with local and national authorities and our
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employees to develop and institute strict procedures on a
site-by-site basis. These includes visitor and medical
screenings, essential person designations, split shifts and
social distancing measures.
Our collaboration with the provincial and federal officials in
Argentina during the mandatory countrywide quarantine
reflects Livent’s level of preparedness and commitment to
responsible operations. We worked closely with the
Argentine government to develop and administer a safe
and practical set of protocols to resume local operations
after only two weeks of downtime. Since then, we have
been operating at the salar and our processing facilities
without incident.
We have also used this pandemic as an opportunity to
further engage with and support our local communities.
From donating Personal Protective Equipment in the UK to
providing support for medical personnel and ambulance
services and essential air transportation in Argentina, we
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are grateful to be in a position to help those in our
communities.
COVID-19 Impact on Lithium Industry Slide 4: Paul Graves
Now on to the current impact of COVID-19 on the lithium
industry. I will attempt not to speculate too much, but will
instead focus on what we are actually seeing today. First,
there is reduced visibility in our ability to forecast near-
term lithium demand. And by this, I mean the remainder of
2020. A large part of this can be attributed to the broad
disruption to the auto market and the implications of
prolonged OEM plant shutdowns. World passenger
vehicle sales declined by 24% in the first quarter, and
while electric vehicle penetration rates have been notably
higher, total volumes were negatively impacted.
The timing, duration and overall impact of the coronavirus
has also varied greatly by region. For example, in the final
week of April, Chinese retail auto sales improved to
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roughly flat year-over-year after being down as much as
40 percent earlier in March. Further, China’s new energy
vehicle sales surged just over 300 percent month-over-
month to 53,000 units in March, despite being down
roughly 55 percent year to date versus last year.
Meanwhile, many OEM plants in Europe and the U.S.
remain shut down due to government restrictions, with the
second quarter expected to be the most impacted. Just as
important, the average consumer is clearly not spending at
anything like pre-COVID levels, and this is especially true
for larger items such as autos.
It is difficult to predict how quickly consumer spending will
rebound, or when manufacturing and supply chains will
return to prior levels of activity. While we remain in close
contact with customers regarding volume needs for the
remainder of this year, it is still unclear whether some
demand will be recovered in the second half of 2020 or
pushed out further. This is amplified in an environment
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where there is understandably more focus on managing
working capital than building inventory at our customers.
Delays in restarting manufacturing plants may result in
upcoming electric vehicle launches being delayed by
several months. However, from a fundamental standpoint,
we have not seen any evidence of OEMs pulling back
from their electrification objectives, or substantially altering
their line-up of EVs for launch. In fact, we have seen
certain OEMs use this as an opportunity to engage more
directly on key aspects of their electric vehicle supply
chain, from taking a greater interest in the location of
sourcing and manufacturing sites to setting more stringent
standards for quality and sustainability.
With a heightened focus on managing capital and R&D
spend, we are seeing OEM development efforts go
towards platforms that will be attractive and sustainable
over a long period of time. Put another way, we see
OEMs allocating their own scarce resources towards
future EV platforms rather than historical ICE technologies
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or projects with uncertain commercial models, such as
autonomous driving.
Moving to the lithium market, we entered this year in a
general state of oversupply, albeit with a wide range of
quality capabilities on the supply side. The near-term
slowdown in demand, driven by the coronavirus, put
additional downward pressure on pricing. This was
particularly evident in shorter-term uncontracted markets
such as China, which was fed by a continued oversupply
of spodumene concentrate, especially that shipped in prior
quarters which has been sitting in China waiting to be
processed. There was also little urgency from customers
to take their share of annual volume commitments in the
first quarter, or enter into new agreements, given the
broader market uncertainty. We expect this dynamic to
continue through the middle of this year as customers
resume production and work to assess the impact on their
own near-to-medium term end-market demand.
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Last quarter, we discussed industry-wide postponed or
cancelled lithium capacity expansion projects, as well as
announced output reductions as a result of weaker pricing.
This trend continues, with sustained lithium pricing
pressure and near-term demand weakness due to the
coronavirus. Production declines to date have still been
relatively modest, reflecting the incentive for many higher
cost producers to continue covering their cash costs in the
hopes of remaining in operation until the market improves.
However, we believe this is not feasible over an extended
period and we expect to see further reductions in
production in the coming months. Additionally, there have
been challenges for lithium projects already in
development, with coronavirus-related supply chain and
government restrictions further delaying the time expected
to bring them into production.
More importantly though, the growing number of cancelled
or postponed expansion projects will have broader
implications for the industry as we move beyond 2020.
These announcements have come from all geography and
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resource types, as well as new and established industry
players. In aggregate, we have seen over 400 thousand
tons worth of expansion delays or cancellations in both
lithium carbonate and hydroxide over the last few quarters.
Current lithium prices have severely challenged any
reasonable investment return hurdles, and several notable
distressed lithium assets have illustrated the limited to
non-existent financing options in today’s market.
While near-term lithium demand forecasts have
significantly widened due to the current uncertainty in the
market, positioning from governments and global OEMs
continues to support demand levels in 2022 and beyond
that have not materially changed from prior expectations.
So as demand picks up as the global business
environment normalizes and electric vehicle production
accelerates, we believe there will be a much more rapid
tightening of the supply-demand balance than we would
have predicted just a few months ago.
I will now turn the call over to Gilberto.
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Reported Financial Results
Slide 5: Gilberto Antoniazzi
Thank you, Paul, and good evening everyone. Turning
now to Livent’s first quarter performance.
For the first quarter of 2020 we reported revenue of $69
million dollars, Adjusted EBITDA of $9 million and adjusted
earnings per share of 2 cents. Our results reflected a
challenging operating environment for both Livent and the
lithium industry as a whole.
Q1 2020 vs. Q4 2019 Financial Bridges
Slide 6: Gilberto Antoniazzi
The decline in revenue was driven by lower sold volumes,
most notably in China, and lower average pricing. There
were some deferred purchases from customers as they
work to limit inventory build-up while assessing the impact
of the crisis on their end-market demand. Margins were
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impacted by lower pricing and hydroxide sales using third-
party purchased lithium carbonate. We expect the margin
impact from hydroxide sales using third-party purchased
carbonate to be notably higher in the first half of 2020 as
we work through the roughly 4,000 tons of hydroxide
inventory carried forward from 2019.
Reduced Capital Spending
Slide 7: Gilberto Antoniazzi
Moving now to Livent’s liquidity position. As Paul
mentioned earlier, when the coronavirus began to spread
outside of China, Livent recognized the inherent
uncertainty impacting the global economy and the need for
an increased focus on liquidity and cash flow
management. Our first public action was in March, when
we announced the suspension of all capital expansion
work globally. We cut projected capital spending for 2020
in half, to approximately 115 million dollars, reflecting the
decision to pause expansion work in both Argentina and
Bessemer City, North Carolina. Quarterly spending for the
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rest of the year will come down significantly from the first
quarter. The decision to halt expansion was not made
until well into the first quarter and since then we have
been focused on stopping key project items at strategic
points that will allow us to resume work as quickly and
cost effectively as possible. We remain confident in
continuing to fulfil orders from our customers in the interim
and remain committed to our long-term capacity
expansion goals. While we cannot currently provide a
specific date for when we intend to resume expansion, it is
unlikely that it will be before the industry returns to more
normalized conditions.
Enhanced Liquidity Profile
Slide 8: Gilberto Antoniazzi
With respect to our balance sheet, we worked closely with
our relationship lenders to amend Livent’s existing credit
facility to provide sufficient liquidity to support operations
during this time of uncertainty. We have increased the net
leverage covenant limit on our revolver, allowing for up to
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6 times EBITDA through 2020, versus 3.5 times
previously. This higher leverage limit provides a safeguard
against COVID-19 stress-case scenarios that we have
evaluated. We will also remain focused on reducing
spending in all non-essential areas while diligently
managing working capital.
Looking beyond 2020, we continue to work with our
lenders to evaluate alternative debt structures beyond our
existing 400 million dollar revolver maturing in 2023 that
better support Livent’s long-term capital requirements.
To conclude my remarks, I want to address the topic of
guidance. In light of the evolving impact of coronavirus
pandemic and the broader uncertainty in the global
economy, Livent withdrew its previously issued full-year
2020 guidance in early April. Following the two weeks of
stoppage in Argentina, we now expect lithium carbonate
production volumes to be flat in 2020 year-over-year. We
plan to sell all 4,000 tons of hydroxide inventory that we
carried into 2020, and will run our hydroxide operations
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this year with the intention of meeting all customer
demands while minimizing third-party carbonate
purchases. We will not look to build any inventory in
speculation of a rebound in demand. We intend to provide
an updated financial outlook once we have a greater
visibility.
With that, I will now turn the call back to Paul.
Longer-Term Market Outlook
Slide 9: Paul Graves
Thank you, Gilberto. I want to conclude by looking beyond
the near-term challenges to focus on some of the longer-
term themes that continue to hold true in our industry.
While there is uncertainty around near-term lithium
demand and the implications of a coronavirus-led
downturn on electric vehicle sales, there is no indication
that the longer-term push to electrification has
meaningfully changed. We do not believe the key
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fundamentals that are driving the shift to electric vehicles
have changed. These fundamental drivers include strong
regulatory support around the world – for cleaner air and
to fight climate change – as well as advancements in
battery technology and increased manufacturing scale that
will bring EVs towards cost parity with internal combustion
engine vehicles.
In another display of commitment to the industry, the
Chinese government recently announced that new energy
vehicles bought in 2021 or 2022 will be exempt from
federal purchase taxes. The government also extended
the NEV subsidy program through 2022 from its previous
2020 expiration, although it is stepping down subsidies
over that time frame. And in Europe, despite auto sales
being down significantly year-to-date, EV penetration rates
are at all-time highs as we move closer to CO2 emission
compliance dates.
The shift to increased use of lithium hydroxide also
continues, in both the cathodes of electric vehicles and
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energy storage more broadly. With respect to high nickel
cathode technologies, which require lithium hydroxide,
there has been an increased focus on chemistries beyond
NCM 811. Additional developments and success have
come from the use of NCA, NCMA and other blends
incorporating higher nickel content.
There have been recent announcements of several new
electric vehicle models in China using LFP-based
cathodes. However, higher use of this legacy cathode,
which can use carbonate or hydroxide, is in no way
contradictory to the trend of higher hydroxide demand.
We have always stated that not all energy storage
applications will have performance specifications requiring
high-nickel cathodes. This can include shorter-range and
commercial vehicles, mobile devices or stationary storage
applications, to name a few. As battery technology
continues to improve, and premier global OEMs roll out
larger electric vehicle platforms, we still project that
hydroxide demand will grow at a higher year-on-year rate
than carbonate and make up an increasing share of the
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energy storage market. With that said, we continue to
operate and plan under the assumption that both products
will be of critical importance for long-term energy storage
solutions.
Finally, given the significant reduction in announced
development and expansion plans, there is greater
uncertainty over where the supply of lithium to meet future
demand will come from over the medium to long-term.
While near-term demand uncertainty is the current issue
that most industry players are focused on, the debate will
ultimately be drawn back to supply. And this period of
depressed lithium pricing over the last few quarters has
made clear the challenges that the current industry-wide
business model is creating for the future of our industry.
As auto OEMs have become more directly involved in the
electric vehicle supply chain, there has been a heightened
focus on ensuring that not only are supply partners fully
integrated between lithium chemicals and resource, but
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that there is a path to increasing capacity to meet higher
qualified demand needs over time.
However, at current average market prices, and by that I
mean the blend of prices across all geographies, not just
the unsustainably low prices we see in the China market,
there are little to no lithium development projects out there
that can be considered economically viable when looking
for a reasonable return on invested capital. In fact, at
these prices the majority of lithium projects do not even
cover their cost of capital. In order to ensure that lithium
supply continues to grow and keep up with accelerating
future demand, there must be greater predictability in
pricing or firmer longer-term commitments from customers
before our industry can start to invest for growth again.
In addition, OEMs have placed greater importance on
where their lithium is being produced for a number of
reasons. The disruption to global supply chains from the
spread of the coronavirus has reinforced the importance of
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not being reliant on a single region to meet supplier needs
and the benefits of “localizing” parts of production.
China and greater Asia represent a significant portion of
the energy storage supply chain today, so the impact on
the lithium industry has been more visible from the onset
of the pandemic. Livent’s ability to serve customers with
lithium products from a global manufacturing network, with
hydroxide from both the U.S. and China, as well as the
security of supply that comes from our ability to use third-
party material in our hydroxide production, has been
particularly valuable to our customers. And while most
recent lithium compound production capacity has been
built in China due to lower capital cost, the importance of
alternate EV supply chains that do not run through China
is growing.
The localization element of OEM focus is also rooted in
sustainability objectives, and we expect this to be
magnified as EV models are rolled out on a larger scale,
and especially as the number of electric vehicles sold in
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Europe increases. And with carbon-conscious principles
in part behind the transition to electric vehicles, we believe
there will be a bigger push to reduce the carbon-intense
practice of shipping unfinished raw materials or
intermediate products to multiple locations around the
world. Livent has been sharply focused on its own global
footprint as a standalone company since the time of its
IPO. As part of these efforts, we will be launching our
revised sustainability program, as well as outlining our
broader ESG framework, as part of a series of releases to
be provided throughout this year.
In closing, as Livent looks beyond current market
conditions, we believe that our core advantages – the low-
cost and sustainable nature of our brine-based operations,
our partnerships with leading battery producers and
automotive OEMs, and our continued investment in
developing next generation engineered lithium products –
position us to be a prime beneficiary of the return to
improved lithium market dynamics.
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I will now turn the call back to Dan for questions.
Q&A Intro – Daniel Rosen
Thank you, Paul. Tina, you may now begin the Q&A
session.
Closing