lithium forecast brochure v2 - benchmarkminerals.com · carbonate, hydroxide and spodumene backed...

INTRODUCING OUR NEW QUARTERLY FORECAST

SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE…

LITHIUM FORECASTS

KNOW YOURSUPPLY CHAINS

LITHIUM FORECASTS BY BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE IS YOUR INDISPENSABLE BUSINESS TOOL FOR EXPANDING NEW SUPPLY, PLANNING YOUR CONTRACTS, MANAGING INVENTORY AND INVESTING.Brought to you by Benchmark Minerals’ world-class analysts from both the lithium and commodity research industries, your quarterly service includes: Easy-to-read summary PDF Full Data Access Analyst Access

CONTACT US TODAY: [email protected]

LITHIUM SUPPLY & DEMANDOUT TO 2040…Our service includes a deep-dive on each link in the lithium supply chain including: Mine by Mine: Brine and Spodumene Analysis Chemical Plant by Plant: Lithium Carbonate & Hydroxide Analysis Battery Focus: Demand by Cathode Chemistry with market share & intensity numbers Battery Demand: Scenarios of EV, Stationary and Portable Tech Industrial vs Battery: Ceramics & Glass, Lubricants & Grease, Metallurgy, Air Treatment, Medical

MINE BY MINE,PLANT BYPLANT


PRICE FORECASTS FOR LITHIUM CARBONATE, HYDROXIDE AND SPODUMENE Backed by our industry leading and IOSCO-regulated Lithium Price Assessment Data, our research team understand lithium’s nuances that will have a major impact on accurately forecasting prices. Forecasted to 2040: Lithium Carbonate, Battery Grade Price, Global Prevailing Price Forecasted to 2040: Lithium Hydroxide, Battery Grade Price, Global Prevailing Price Forecasted to 2040: Spodumene 6%, Australia FOB, Battery Market Material


UNDERSTANDTHENUANCES

EVOLVINGINCENTIVE

UNDERSTAND HOW LITHIUM’S COST CURVE IS RESHAPING OVERTIMEOur full picture understanding of lithium is most prevalent in our bottom-up cost curve analysis. We present a “Total Cost” number for each operating mine and development project under review which also considers: Cash/Opex, Capital Charge & Taxes & Royalties. Time Travel: Compare Cost Curves between 2019, 2020 & 2030 Brine & Hard Rock: Understand the shifting relationship Plan for your future contracts, inventory or investment needs



UNRESTRICTED DATA

ALL OF THE DATA, ALL OF THE TIMEYou will receive full, unrestricted access to the data behind Benchmark Minerals’ Lithium Forecast service. Direct Delivery: We deliver your data direct to your email in Excel format each quarter Clear & Easy: Your data is presented in 3 Excel Files - Lithium Forecast, Lithium Price Forecast & Lithium Total Cost Model Implement Ideas: Each file is fully editable so you can input your own assumptions

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© Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 201911 | Q3 2019 Forecast

Lithium Feedstock: Supply Forecast

9.4%

50.0%22.6%

11.0%

7.0%China

Argentina

Australia

Chile

ROW

2019 2025 2030

12.4%

37.2%

16.1%

7.2%

27.1%

China

Argentina

ROW

Australia

Chile

13.2%

30.8%

14.3%

8.0%

33.7%

Australia

Argentina

China

Chile

ROW

0

700,000

1,400,000

2,100,000

2018 2019

Tonnes LCE

2015 202020172016 20322021 2022 20272023 2024 2025 20302026 2028 2029 2031 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

Operational supply Highly Probable additonal tonnes Possible additonal tonnesProbable additonal tonnes Secondary supply

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Lithium market balance (tonnes LCE)

-1200000

-1000000

-800000

-600000

-400000

-200000

0

200000

2019

2020

2021

2025

2024

2023

2022

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Balance - Operational, highly probableBalance - Operational, highly probable, probable

0

1500000

3000000

4500000

6000000

2019

2018

2017

2022

2039

2015

2016

2030

2020

2021

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

204

0

Secondary supplyTotal Demand

Highly Probable additonal tonnesProbable additonal tonnes

Possible additonal tonnesOperational supply

Cathode Evolution

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152,037tonnes

725,197tonnes

1,917,587tonnes

Lithium Demand

2019 2025 2030

28%

17%36%

16%

2%1%

2% 6%

13%

71%

9%0%

1%0% 8%

80%

8% 3%0%

1%0%

LMNOLCO NCMNCA LMO LFP Other


AT THE SPEED OF LIFE

SUMMARY SLIDE DECK,THAT’S EASY TO READAt Benchmark Minerals, we understand that time is of the essence for a supply chain that is so rapidly evolving. Therefore, every Lithium Forecast subscription from the Benchmark Team includes an easy-to-digest summary of the major changes from the previous quarter in text and charts.

5 | Q3 2019 Forecast

Q3 Briefing

31 July 2019: Albemarle announce an amendment to its deal with Mineral Resources in relation to the development of the Wodgina project. The company went on to confirm plans to reduce capital expenditure by $1.5bn over the next 5 years

25 July 2019: South Korean battery major, LG Chem, announces plans to invest $424m to build a new 60,000tpa NCM cathode facility, with production expected from 2022

29 August 2019: New spodumene producer, Alita Resources, announced that it had appointed administrators after failing to restructure its finances. The news puts the company’s short-term prospects in doubt10 September 2019: Chinese lithium major, Tianqi,

announced the successful completion of its phase 1 lithium hydroxide plant at Kwinana, however stalled plans for stage 2 of the project which will now be reviewed in accordance with market developments

19 July 2019: Nemaska Lithium accepts LOI from The Pallinghurst Group to finance the company’s Whabouchiproject. The deal proposes a CAD 200m private placement and a rights offering of up to CAD 400m

23 September 2019: Umicore and LG Chem announced a multi-year partnership for the supply of 125kt cathode materials

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© Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2019

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Expansions curtailedDevelopment: Q3 saw a number of majors pull back from previously announced expansions, including Albemarle which reduced its planned capital expenditure out to 2024, and Tianqi which scaled back plans for Kwinana. In addition a number of Tier 2 converters also delayed expansion timelines, including Yahua Group which is now unlikely to begin production from its 20ktpa facility until mid-2020 at the earliest.

Forecast update:The ramp up of Wodgina has been revised in line with the new JV terms between Albemarle and Mineral Resources, with output expected to reach 40ktpa by 2024.

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Electric Vehicle adoption rates will have the biggest impact on lithium ion battery demand over the forecast period. According to Rho Motion, EV sales are expected to reach 15.8m units by as early as 2025, which would equate to a 14.8% penetration rate. Our demand model includes upside/downside cases to this base assumption. Benchmark Minerals’ base case forecasts a 29% CAGR in lithium ion battery demand from EVs over the coming 10 years.

Electric vehicles

Passenger/Light Duty EVsA total of 96m passenger and light duty vehicles are expected to be sold in 2019 according to Rho Motion, less than 3m of which will be electric, rising to over 15m by 2025

Heavy Duty The use of lithium ion battery for heavy duty vehicles has been a major growth driver in EV demand and e-Bus and etrucks continue to experience healthy growth rates, supported by regional subsidies in China

Battery PacksThe size of battery packs continues to increase with improvements in pack technology. The average pack size for passenger and light duty vehicles is expected to reach an average of 40.9 kwh in 2019, rising to >50kwh by 2023

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TO FORECAST THE FUTURE, YOU MUST FIRST UNDERSTAND THE PRESENTBenchmark Mineral Intelligence is the world's leading voice and price report agency (PRA) for the lithium ion battery and electric vehicle (EV) supply chain.We are most trusted provider of IOSCO-regulated independent price assessments, forecasting and advisory for key links in the battery supply chain including: lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, cathode, anodes and lithium ion battery cells. Benchmark Minerals is globally known for setting the lithium industry's reference and benchmark pricing and we also produce world-leading price assessments and market analysis on cobalt, graphite anode, nickel sulphate and lithium ion battery cells, as we track the buildout of battery megafactories (gigafactories) around the world. We are the independent market specialists from mine to battery cell producing top tier, decision-making tools for the energy storage revolution. Our price data, analysis and council is relied upon by major actors in the industry, including lithium extraction operators, cathode and anode manufacturers, battery cell producers and automotive OEMs. The EV and battery cell supply chain is Benchmark Minerals’ sole focus and speciality.


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Or your own Sales Consultant: Ben Ash: [email protected] Will Plunkett: [email protected] Rob Nichols: [email protected]

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FROM LITHIUM MINES IN CHILE TO THEWHITE HOUSE...Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (Benchmark Minerals) is the world’s leading voice and most trusted provider of prices, data and advisory services in the lithium ion battery and electric vehicle (EV) supply chain.Benchmark Minerals, a price reporting agency (PRA), is globally known for setting the IOSCO-compliant, lithium reference price which is relied upon to negotiate contracts between lithium extraction operators, cathode manufacturers, battery cell producers and automotive OEMs.The company also produces regular price assessments on cobalt chemicals and graphite anode and also tracks lithium ion battery megafactory capacity build out.Benchmark Minerals also provides Forecasting & Consultancy services that are relied upon by a wide range of customers, from governments, electronics manufacturers, EV makers, battery cell producers, and mining companies.Premium Quarterly Forecast reports are provided for the lithium, cobalt, graphite and nickel industries, including cost curves and a fully linked supply and demand model allowing easy scenario analysis.Our single-client advisory services provide actionable and implementable recommendations in the form of supply chain workshops, lenders market reports and input to feasibility studies.To complement its publishing activities, the company has created the industry’s leading platform to discuss the subject – THE BENCHMARK WORLD TOUR.Benchmark Minerals also hosts an industry gathering for the lithium ion supply chain in Q4 of each year. BENCHMARK MINERALS WEEK consists of two main conferences, Graphite & Anodes and Cathodes, and is the world’s meeting place to negotiate deals and network.Benchmark Minerals’ data, insight, and understanding of the subject is unrivalled, as witnessed by repeat testimony to the US Senate in 2017 and 2019. In addition, Benchmark Minerals has been invited to give guest lectures at the University of Oxford, Stanford University, and the Royal Institution of Great Britain.The EV and battery cell supply chain is the sole focus and speciality of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.


lithium forecast brochure v2 - benchmarkminerals.com · carbonate, hydroxide and spodumene backed...

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