linking energy system and infrastructure models …...h2fc supergen researcher conference, monday 15...

H2FC Supergen Researcher Conference, Monday 15 December 2014, University of Birmingham, UK

LINKING ENERGY SYSTEM AND INFRASTRUCTURE MODELS TO EXPLORE

THE TRANSITION TO A HYDROGEN-FUELLED ECONOMY IN THE UK

Nagore Sabio and Paul Dodds

UCL Energy Institute, 14 Upper Woburn Place, WC1H 0NN, London


Transport

Households

Hydrogen Energy SystemsIndustry

Overview

Context

Approach

Energy systems models

Infrastructure optimisation models

Linking approach

Insights

Next steps

Outline

Slide 3H2FC Supergen Researcher Conference, Monday 15 December 2014, University of Birmingham, UK

Overview

• Building on the H2FC SupergenWhite Paper

• Adding insights for model harmonisation to HYVE project

• Linking energy systems models with infrastructure optimisation tools to exploit and explore the synergies of different hydrogen markets

• ESM constitute the core models used in process of developing low carbon transition strategy

• Infrastructure models have been developed in parallel and constitute a reference for hydrogen systems deployment analysis


Context • UK heat and transportation systems cover more than 2/3 of final

energy consumption

Slide 5

Most of it industrial

and domestic

heat


Source: Parliament UK, DUKES (2007)

Context • Trends indicate growth in energy consumption


Final energy consumption by sector, UK (1970 to 2013)

Source: ECUK, Table 1.05

Context

• Transport hydrogen refuelling stations are a target and under construction

• For stationary systems (micro CHP) experience in markets like South Korea and Japan show 20% price decreases for each doubling in cumulative production.

• The same infrastructure could be used for providing hydrogen for heating and for transportation.

Slide 7

Potential to double market volumeMarginal infrastructure cost increase


Approach

• Least cost optimisation

• Partial equilibrium

• Open source

• One full region: UK

Note: Under review at the moment. Results shown are illustrative


Energy systems model UKTM

Approach


Hydrogen processes in UKTM

Simplified Reference Energy System

Gasification

Steam reforming

Electrolysis

Biomass

Coal

Waste

Naturalgas

Biooil

Electricity

CCS

No-CCS

Liq

Gas

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

PJ

Residential heat provision

Other

Micro-CHP

Heat pumps

Hydrogen boiler

Gas boiler

Approach


Hydrogen in UKTM Low-GHG scenario

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

PJ

Final Energy Consumption by FuelManufactured fuels

Other Renewables

Oil Products

Hydrogen

Natural Gas

Electricity

Coal

Biomass and biofuels 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

PJ

Transport sector fuel consumptionManufactured fuels

Other Renewables

Oil Products

Hydrogen

Natural Gas

Electricity

Coal

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

PJ

Residential sector fuel consumption

Manufactured fuels

Other Renewables

Oil Products

Hydrogen

Natural Gas

Electricity

Coal

Biomass and biofuels

Approach


Infrastructure optimisation model H2-Net

Production

p=1 → Steam methane reforming

p=2 → Coal gasification

p=3 → Biomass gasification

Storage

s=1 → Liquid hydrogen (LH) storage

s=2 → Compressed gas (CH) storage

Transportation

l=1 → Liquid hydrogen (LH) tanker truck

l=2 → Liquid hydrogen (LH) railway tank car

l=3 → Compressed-gasous hydrogen (CH) tube trailer

l=4 → Compressed-gaseous hydrogen (CH) railway tube car

1 2

3 4

5 6

7 8

9 10 11

12 13 14

15 16 17 18

19 20 21

22 23

Approach


Infrastructure optimisation model H2-Net

1. Mass balances (defined for every grid)

2. Capacity constraints (defined for every technology)

Production facilities

Storage facilities

Transportation links

3. Objective function:

(1) Total discounted cost

(2) Life cycle environmental impact

Approach


UK least-cost hydrogen infrastructure H2-Net

Steam methane reforming

Coal gasification

Biomass gasification

LH tanker truck

LH railway tank car

CH tube trailer

CH railway tube car

1 2

3 4

5 6

7 8

9 10 11

12 13 14

15 16 17 18

19 20 21

22 23

Production

Transportation

Cryogenic spherical tank (LH)

Pressurized cylindrical vessel (CH)

Storage

54

8

8

19

11

29 41 7

31

23 45 23

47 40 18

21 48 136

1210

6

18

2

1 1

1

1 1

3 3 1

3 4 3

2 4 3

2 4 8

1

2

• Centralised (economies of scale)

• Steam methane reforming

• Liquid H2 distributed via tanker trucks

Approach


Linkage protocol

Iteration 1Run UKTM Low GHG Scenario

Run H2-Net with new Hydrogen Demands

Update H2-Net Transport and Residential demand

Update UKTM with H2-Net Production/Distribution mix

Run UKTM Low GHG Scenario

Iteration 2 Update H2-Net Transport and Residential demand Run H2-Net with

new Hydrogen Demands

Stop whenDemand it (i) = Demand it (i-1)

Insights


• UKTM – H2-Net technology harmonisation needed

• H2-Net should be updated for representing resource

availability constraints

• H2-Net valuable information to extract and add to UKTM

distribution costs

Plant capacity expansions

• Equilibrium convergence might not be reached

Next steps


• Harmonise H2-Net technology set to map into UKTM

• Complete hydrogen pipelines formulation in UKTM

• Include resource availability constraints

• Update the linking protocol with another iteration loop

including different H2-Net objectives

• Get further insights on how to differentiate residential

and transport energy demand in H2-Net

• Build the stochastic capability in H2-Net and run with

corresponding UKTM stochastic mode

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

Nagore Sabio and Paul Dodds

UCL Energy Institute, 14 Upper Woburn Place, WC1H 0NN, London

linking energy system and infrastructure models …...h2fc supergen researcher conference, monday 15...

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