Linking Climate Variability and Community

Outcomes through Historical Analysis of

Extreme Weather and Disaster Events

Dr. Karen McDonald

CIPHI Manitoba Branch Fall Education Workshop September 15, 2011

Team of Investigators Colin L. Soskolne (PI)

Epidemiology

Karen McDonald Atmospheric Science

J. Peter Rothe Social Sciences

Karen E. Smoyer-Tomic Human Geography

Donald W. Spady Medicine

Justine Klaver Research Coordinator

Alexander Affleck Archive Researcher

Robyn Hyde-Lay Qualitative Research

Assistant

Tyler Daignault Scanner Operator

With recognition of the Health Policy Research Program,

Health Canada funding (HPRP #6795-15-2001/4400013)

Predictions for the Prairies

Low Soil Moisture

More Fires & Poor AQ

Unpredictable Flooding

Spread of Pests &Disease

Temperature-

related morbidity

& mortality

• Cold and heat related illnesses

• Respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses

• Increased occupational health risks

Health effects of

extreme weather

events

• Damaged public health infrastructure

• Injuries and illnesses

• Social and mental health stress due to disasters

• Occupational health hazards

• Preparedness and population displacement

Air pollution-

related health

effects

• Outdoor & indoor air pollutants, allergens

• Asthma and other respiratory diseases

• Heart attacks strokes and other cardiovascular diseases

• Cancer

Water-borne and

food-borne

contamination

• Enteric diseases

HEALTH IMPACTS

Vector-borne infectious

diseases Changed patterns of diseases caused by bacteria,

viruses and other pathogens carried by 8, ticks and

other vectors

Stratospheric ozone

depletion and increased

exposure to ultra-violet

radiation

• Skin damage and skin cancer

• Cataracts

• Disturbed immune function

Population

vulnerabilities

Seniors, Children, Poor health, Low income &

homeless, Traditional populations, Disabled,

Immigrant populations

Health and Socio-

Economic Impacts on

Community Health and

Well-being

• Changed determinants of health and well-being

• Global burden of disease

• Vulnerability of community economies

• Health co-benefits & risks of GHG reduction

technology

HEALTH IMPACTS

Seasonality of deaths in Canada, 1974–1994

(Trudeau, 1997)

Research Objectives Because the prediction of increasing extreme weather

events raises questions about an expected increase in pressure on social and health support systems, the objectives of this study were to:

1. Provide a hazard assessment of extreme events between 1960-

2000 in Alberta.

2. Identify consequences of extreme weather on morbidity, death, injury, and damages.

3. Correlate weather and disaster data with newspaper reporting.

4. Suggest how the combination of weather and health data can be used to advance the National Sustainable Development Strategy.

Study Design

• Extreme Weather

• Disasters

Identify

• News Search

• Content Analysis

Assess • Quantitative

• Qualitative

Correlate

1. Identification of Events Canadian Climate Archive National Disaster Database

Subsection Alberta stations by basin/newspaper & randomly select sites for investigation

Selected sites:

Fort McMurray, Vermillion, Red Deer, High River, and Coronation

Site specific identification of extreme conditions and specific events (temp, pptn)

Alberta only cases = 92

Included disasters:

Drought, heat wave, rainstorm, flood, fire, windstorm, cold wave, snowstorm

Omitted: hailstorm, tornado

For each location, dates then go

to the news research stage.

Underutilized source of epidemiological information

Provide context around an event = local experience

Provide situational information not found in administrative databases

Provide public perception of the event

Why Newspapers?

2. Assessing News Content Credibility

Language Use, Forms of Knowledge, Sources, Editors

Direct Health Outcomes morbidity, mortality, injury, disease

Indirect Health Outcomes economic costs, water issues, displacement, anguish, etc.

Response to the event

Solutions to address the event’s impacts

Adaptations arising from the event

Preparedness or warning for the event

Mental

Health

Official

Position

Facts Response 85 yr old male Cree died

during flood evacuation

RCMP state that flood

was a contributing factor

Residents rescued

by boat & helicopter

“I’m just panicking right now.”

Edmonton Journal, July 10, 1988

Response

Indirect

Outcome Prepared?

Town damage estimated

at $10M or more

Disaster services provided

emergency housing

Damage to hospital

was unexpected &

poses the bigger problem.

Claresholm Press, June 20, 1974

Risk

Identified

Insufficient water to cope

with emergency needs

3. Correlating Events and News Key Questions

Do newspapers report on the extreme events as defined by statistical analysis? Are the same events “extreme”?

Does the magnitude of the event increase news coverage?

Is there a seasonality to the news reporting?

Can those news reports provide qualitative information about the event impacts on health?

Rain Extreme Events

y = 7.4476x + 34.33

R2 = 0.1413

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

# News Articles

Rain

fall (

mm

)

Magnitude of Precipitation

Snow Extreme Events

y = 0.4569x + 18.149

R2 = 0.0135

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 5 10 15 20 25

# News Articles

Sn

ow

fall (

cm

)

Cold Extreme Events

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

0 2 4 6 8 10

# News Articles

Min Temp (C)

Max Temp (C)

Snowfall (cm)

Linear (Min Temp

(C) )

Linear (Max Temp

(C) )

Extremes of Temperature

Hot Extreme Events

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

0 2 4 6

# News Articles

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1 Max Temp (C)

2 Max Temp (C)

3 Max Temp (C)

Max. RH 1

Linear (Max. RH 1)

Seasonality of Reporting Extreme Rainfall Events

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct

with news

without news

Extreme Snowfall Events

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

with news

without newsExtreme Daily Maximum Temperature Events

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

with news

without news

20

Validation Study with Mortality Dataset

Statistics Canada Daily Mortality data is available from 1950 to 2000 at the Census Sub-division level

Evaluated weather-related disasters associated with large numbers of deaths

News reports filled gaps making validation using mortality data easier

For example, 6 men died of heart attacks while shoveling snow.

Number of people died in Edmonton, Alberta

July 24 - Aug 7, 1987

0

10

20

30

40

24-

Jul

25-

Jul

26-

Jul

27-

Jul

28-

Jul

29-

Jul

30-

Jul

31-

Jul

1-

Aug

2-

Aug

3-

Aug

4-

Aug

5-

Aug

6-

Aug

7-

Aug

Day of Year 1987

Nu

mb

er D

ied

Number of people that died in Edmonton, Alberta

between July 24 and August 7, 1987

Health & Weather Implications Extreme Cold

Heavy Snowfalls

Heavy Rainfalls

Heat and Humidity

22

23

Research Products Completed reports to Health Canada: Research Report (500 pages, 2004) Summary Report ( 30 pages, 2004)

Three academic papers recently submitted : Archived Newspaper Reports as a Complementary Source

of Epidemiologic Data for Research into Climate Change: Alberta, Canada, 1960-2000

Human health effects from weather-related disasters in Alberta, Canada, 1960 through 2000

Linking News Coverage to Historical Extreme Weather Events: Alberta, Canada, 1960-2000

Other Prairie Regions – Manitoba?

Other Public Health Issues?

Other Suggestions?

Thank you