A multi-scale health impact assessment

of air pollution over the 21st century V. Likhvar, M. Pascal, K. Markakis, A. Colette, D. Hauglustaine, M. Valari,

S. Medina, P. Kinney

• Air pollution is a major health risks throughout the world

• adverse effects on human health throughout the lifespan

• action to reduce air pollution brings immediate and lasting

benefits for the health and well-being of the population

• How to assess the potential health impacts of air quality

policies?

• comparing air pollution policies and taking climate change into

account

• in a consistent way across scales

Background

Modeling framework

Global climate (World 2,5*1,25°)

[IPSLcm5A-MR]

Regional climate (Eur 0,44°)

[WRF]

Regional climate (Eur 0,11°)

[WRF]

Global chemistry (World 3,75*1,89°)

[INCA]

Regional chemistry (Eur 0,44°)

[CHIMERE]

Local chemistry (Eur 4 km)

[CHIMERE]

Present day,

RCP4.5

ECLIPSE CLE, MFR

Other scenario tested: Climate: RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5; Air pollution: GEEA

Health

Impact

Asessment

Health impact assessment

• Log-linear relationship bewteen

pollutant concentrations and

mortality

• Cardiovascular mortality / PM2,5

• Respiratory mortality /O3

• Comparison of future to present

impacts under different scenarios

• Health and population data

• 2008 annual mortality for 193

countries (WHO 2011)

• Gridded population over 15 years

old (Ciesin 2008, Insee 2009)

log(Mortality)

[Polluant]

Present

burden

Future

Scenario 1

Scenarios developed by the EU

commisison in 2013

- CLE: current legislation is applied

everywhere

- MFR: maximum feasible reduction,

using only technological solutions

Hypotheses for Europe: end of the economic crisis,

increase of the service economy and of high added-

value industrien decrease of traditionnal industry and

of agriculture

Energy efficiency; decrease by 10% the use of fossil

fuel in 2030

Estimate costs in Europe in 2030:

CLE 88.3 b€ per year

MFR 140.7 b€ per year

Air pollutants emissions

World - changes in PM2.5 2030 / 2010

CLE

MFR

World - Mortality impacts

• 2030 – CLE:

+ 6 800 cv deaths per year

• 2030 – MFR

-1.5 millions cv deaths per

year (84% in Asia)

- 0.82 millions deaths in China

- 0.24 millions deaths in India

Change in number of deaths due to

PM2,5 and ozone in 2030 compared to

2010 (per 100 000 inhab.)

Europe – PM2,5 related mortality

- 109 000 cv deaths per year - 219 000 cv deaths per year

Change in number of deaths due to PM2,5 in 2030

compared to 2010 (per 100 000 inhab.)

Europe – Ozone related mortality

- 4 800 resp deaths per year - 9 400 resp deaths per year

Change in number of deaths due to

ozone in 2030 compared to 2010

(per 100 000 inhab.)

Comparison across scales

Year Scenario

European countries at the

Global Scale (Ncountries = 38)

European countries at the

European Scale

(Ncountries = 38)

Conc.

range,

µg/m3

Avr.

change

in conc.,

µg/m3

Change

s in CV

deaths

Conc.

range,

µg/m3

Avr.

change

in conc.,

µg/m3

Changes

in CV

deaths

2030 CLE 0.5 - 5.7 -1.3 -55 099 2.2 - 9.0 -2.4 -109 398

MFR 0.5 - 4.8 -2.6 -105 356 2.0 - 7.5 -5 -218 843

IDF vs Europe: the estimates of the impacts of ozone changes on respiratory mortality

over Paris are15 time larger at the IdF scale than the European scale, under MFR.

Can we « correct » the results?

PM2.5 related CV deaths, CLE - 2030

Global scale Global scale

with

correction

European

scale

Europe -55 099 -108 900 -109 398

World + 6 600 + 329 000

• Large scale PM2,5- HIA is likely to be underestimated if no subgrid scale

correction is applied

• Better to work at the National or Regional scale

• City-specific impacts can only be assessed with a local scale model

Changes between 2030 and 2050

• PM2,5:

• few changes between 2030 and 2050

• scenarios assume that the vast majority of particle reduction

measures will already be in place by 2030.

• Ozone:

• increase in concentrations and resulting health impacts between

2030 and 2050,

• related to an increase in meteorological conditions conducive to

ozone formation.

Conclusions

• Implementing ambitious air quality policies would save

millions accross the world

• in 2050, the negative influence of climate on ozone could balance the

benefits of air quality policies targeting ozone

• More research is needed to better inform policies

• Modeling issues

• relevant scales for assessing impacts

• lack of consistent air pollution, climate and population scenarios

accross scales

• Health impact issues

• changes in the air pollution – mortality relationship?

• population growth should be taken into account

• other benefits should be taken into account

The project team

Victoria Likhvar, Didier Hauglustaine, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de

l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Patrick Kinney, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University in the

City of New York, Etats-Unis

Augustin Colette, Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Ineris, Paris,

France

Myrto Valari, Konstandinos Markakis Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Institut

Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France

Mathilde Pascal, Sylvia Medina, Département Santé Environnement, Institut de Veille

Sanitaire, InVS, Saint Maurice, France.

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