leverage business cycles and crises

8/2/2019 LEVERAGE BUSINESS CYCLES AND CRISES

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@DGT RITCJ@B VLVGT ]GTJG]

RKG@ MTGHJX DJXG] DLMC>EGQGTLBG% DW]J@G]] MZMEG]% L@H MTJ]G]

}mlt NithOitjx~ KV. ]mkweltjmc

Lel` O. Xlzeit

Ritcj`b Vlvgt ))rrr.`dgt.itb)vlvgt})r


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Rkg` Mtghjx Djxg} Dlmc> Egqgtlbg% Dw}j`g}} Mzmeg}% l`h Mtj}g}}mlt Nith% Oitjx~ KV. ]mkweltjmc% l`h Lel` O. Xlzeit@DGT Ritcj`b Vlvgt @i.


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< J xtihwmxji`

Lee olnit el`holtc gqg`x} j` oihgt` olmtigmi`iojm kj}xitz klqg dgg` l}}imjlxgh rjxk l `l`mjle

mtj}j}. ]xwhg x} ia }wmk hj}l}xgt} iaxg` jhg`xjgh egqgtlbg% xklx j} g{mg}} mtghjx% l} xkg Lmkjeeg}

kgge ia mlvjxlej}o% l} Nlog} Xidj` vwx jx j` kj} tgqjgr ia Kzol` Oj`}cz} diic ]xldjej~j`b l`

W`}xldeg Gmi`ioz +Xidj`


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}mtwxj`z +g.b.% Btggmg*% j` xkg tgmg`x mtj}j} xkg vtidego} ia ol`z ixkgt miw`xtjg} eltbgez }xgoogh

atio vtjqlxg mtghjx l}mig}% iaxg` mi``gmxgh xi kiw}j`b +g.b.% Jtgel`h% ]vlj`% W.].*.

J` 466;% rkg` vtgqljej b tg}gltmk l`h viejmz xkj`cj b }ggogh xi istgt ejxxeg bwjhl`mg% xkg

lwxkitjxjg} aiw`h xkgo}geqg} j` l hjmwex vi}jxji`% l`h mg`xtle dl`c} xwt`gh xi gmi`iojm kj}xitz

ait bwjhl`mg. Lmmithj`b xi l aitogt Biqgt it ia xkg Aghgtle Tg}gtqg% Ojexi` Atjghol`} l`h

L``l ]mkrltx~ }goj`le ritc i` xkg Btglx Hgvtg}}ji` dgmlog xkg }j`beg oi}x jovitxl`x vjgmg

ia gmi`iojm tg}gltmk xklx vtiqjhgh bwjhl`mg xi Aghgtle Tg}gtqg Dilth ogodgt} hwtj`b xkg mtj}j}

+Cti}~`gt 46


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Iwt vlvgt le}i mi``gmx} rjxk vtgqjiw} tg}gltmk xklx g}xldej}kgh }xzej~gh almx} ait xkg oihgt`

dw}j`g}} mzmeg +Tiogt


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]xl`hlth xjog} xi xihlz* l`h rkgxkgt xkg gstgmx} ltg eltbgt j` oitg`l`mjlej~gh gmiìojg}.

J` xkg xkjth vltx ia xkg vlvgt% rg w}g eimle vtingmxji` ogxkih} vji`ggtgh j` Nithfl +4667* xi

xtlmc xkg gstgmx} ia g{mg}} egqgtlbg i` xkg vlxk ia `j`g cgz olmtigmiìojm qltjldeg} ait wv xi

}j{ zglt} laxgt xkg dgbj``j`b ia xkg tgmg}}ji`. Loi`b ixkgt}% rg }xwhz xkg oltbj`le gstgmx} xklx

kjbkgt egqgtlbg kl} i` xkg dgklqjit ia qltjldeg} }wmk l} j`qg}xog`x% mi`}wovxji`% oi`gz% l`h

dl`c eg`hj`b. Rg le}i mlemwelxg xkg mwowelxjqg oltbj`le ei}}g} xklx gmiìojg} j`mwt iqgt xkj}

xjog kitj~i` hwg xi g{mg}} egqgtlbg j` xkg vtgqjiw} g{vl`}ji`. Rg `h eltbg hjstgtg`mg} j` xkg

dgklqjit ia iwxvwx% j`qg}xog x% l`h eg`hj b. Xkg gstgmx} ltg mi`}jhgtldez }xti`bgt j` tgmg}}ji`

gvj}ihg} xklx mij`mjhg rjxk `l`mjle mtj}g}% dwx tgolj` megltez qj}jdeg j` blthg`/qltjgxz tgmg}}ji`}.

Rg le}i xg}x xkg tidw}x`g}} ia iwt tg}wex} dz eiicj b lx xkg vi}xrlt }loveg }gvltlxgez. Rg xkg`

xwt` xi l` jeew}xtlxjqg |wl`xjxlxjqg g{gtmj}g dl}gh i` iwt g}xjolxgh oihge}. J` ejbkx ia iwt tg}wex}%

xkg j`mtgl}g j` egqgtlbg xklx xkg W.]. gmiìoz kl} }gg` j` xkg g{vl`}ji` zglt} }j`mg xkg 466 G{vl`}ji`} l`h Egqgtlbg

Lovejxwhg Hwtlxji` TlxgEir Kjbk Eir Kjbk Eir Kjbk

Egqgtlbg Egqgtlbg Egqgtlbg Egqgtlbg Egqgtlbg Egqgtlbg

Awee ]lovegOgl`


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rkgxkgt xkg}g blj`} rgtg gìwbk xi miovg`}lxg ait rklx rl} xi klvvg` hwtj`b tgmg}}ji`} l`h xi

l`}rgt xklx |wg}xji` j` hgxlje% rg ìr aimw} i` xklx }jhg ia xkg g|wlxji`.

= Xkg Mtghjx J`xg`}jxz ia xkg Diio l`h xkg ]gqgtjxz ia xkg

Tgmg}}ji`

Rjxk iwt dw}j`g}} mzmeg hlxj`b }xtlxgbz jovegog`xgh l} hg}mtjdgh% rg ml` ìr dgbj` xkg aitole

govjtjmle l`lez}j} ia xkg olj kzvixkg}j} j` xkg vlvgt. Rg rjee olcg w}g ia l hlxl w`jqgt}g

mi`}j}xj`b ia wv xi


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Xldeg => Tgmg}}ji` mkltlmxgtj}xjm} qgt}w} g{mg}} eil` btirxk j` vtjit g{vl`}ji`

+


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Xldeg 8> Tgmg}}ji` mkltlmxgtj}xjm} qgt}w} g{mg}} eil` btirxk l`h eil`)BHV egqge j` vtjit g{vl`}ji`

+


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+


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Xldeg 7> Tgmg}}ji` mkltlmxgtj}xjm} qgt}w} g{mg}} eil` btirxk j` vtjit g{vl`}ji`% }wd}loveg}

+


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`l`mjlej~gh.

Xkg}g tg}wex} }gtqg xi oixjqlxg xkg l`lez}j} rkjmk aieeir}. J` xkg tg}x ia xkg vlvgt rg wxjej~g

oitg }ivkj}xjmlxgh xgmk`j|wg} xi vtiqjhg }xti`bgt l}}wtl`mg l} xi dixk xkg }xlxj}xjmle l`h |wl`/

xjxlxjqg }jb`jml`mg ia xkg}g jovlmx}% w}j`b hz`lojm oihgej`b xgmk`j|wg} l`h ej`glt vtingmxji`

ogxkih} xi bgx l oitg btl`welt qjgr l} xi kir xkg tgmg}}ji` vkl}g velz} iwx lmmithj`b xi vtgmj}g

dwx govjtjmleez velw}jdeg }kjax} j` egqgtlbg hwtj`b xkg vtjit diio.

8 Xkg Hz`lojm} ia Egqgtlbg% Tgmg}}ji`% l`h Tgmiqgtz

Xkg tg}wex} ia xkg vtgqjiw} }gmxji` }wbbg}x xklx l` gmiìoz} egqgtlbg kj}xitz olz velz l` jo/

vitxl`x tieg j` hgxgtoj`j`b kir xkg tgmg}}ji` l`h }wd}g|wg`x tgmiqgtz vkl}g gqieqg. Xi vtiqjhg l

hggvgt l`lez}j} xkj} }gmxji` j`qg}xjblxg} xkg tieg ia egqgtlbg i` xkg xjog/vlxk} ia olmtigmiìojm

qltjldeg} w}j`b oihgt` ogxkih} ia hz`lojm l`lez}j}. Rg }kiweh dg meglt xklx iwt j`xg x j} ìx

xi }ggc l mlw}le g{vel`lxji` ait tgmg}}ji`}l` jovitxl`x olxxgt xklx hg}gtqg} jx} ir` }gvltlxg

vlvgt. Tlxkgt% rg l}c rkgxkgt xkgtg ltg hjstgtg`mg} j` xkg ol``gt xkg gmiìoz gqieqg} laxgt l

ìtole qgt}w} `l`mjle tgmg}}ji`% l`h rklx tieg egqgtlbg olz velz j` olcj`b olxxgt} rit}g j`

glmk ml}g. Xkg l`}rgt} xwt` iwx xi klqg jovitxl`x tg}gltmk l`h viejmz jovejmlxji`}.

Xkg }xlxj}xjmle xiiecjx xklx rg alqit j} xkg eimle vtingmxji` lvvtilmk j`xtihwmgh j` Nithfl +4667*.

Eimle vtingmxji`} ltg dl}gh i` xkg vtgoj}g xklx hz`lojm owexjvejgt} +ia rkjmk jovwe}g tg}vi`}g}

ltg l` g{loveg dwx ìx xkg ièz i`g* ltg vtivgtxjg} ia xkg hlxl xklx ml` dg mlemwelxgh hjtgmxez

tlxkgt xkl` j`hjtgmxez xktiwbk l tgagtg`mg oihge }wmk l} l QLT. J` xkg }joveg}x ml}g% xkj`c ia

mlemwelxj`b l }loveg ogl` it hgtjqj`b l` g}xjolxg ia xkg ogl` rjxk xkg vltlogxgt g}xjolxg} ia

l tgbtg}}ji . Xkgtg ltg }gqgtle lhql`xlbg} ja i`g xlcg} xkj} hjtgmx tiwxg% xkg oi}x idqjiw} dgj`b

xklx }vgmjmlxji` ia l oihge j} ìx tg|wjtgh l`h xkgtgaitg i`g j} ìx }wdngmx xi oj}}vgmjmlxji`

vtidego}. J` }jxwlxji } rkgtg l}zoogxtjg}% ìèj`gltjxjg}% tjmkgt hlxl }xtwmxwtg} +}wmk l} xjog/

}gtjg}% mti}}/}gmxji` vl`ge} ia hlxl* it ixkgt hgqjlxji`} atio xkg ìto ltg l mi`mgt` +}wmk l} jìwt lvvejmlxji`*% xkg }jovejmjxz ia xkg eimle vtingmxji` lvvtilmk istgt} l mi`}jhgtldeg lhql`xlbg

iqgt xkg j`hjtgmx tiwxg }j`mg vltlogxtjm l`h `wogtjmle tg|wjtgog`x} `gghgh xi lmmiooihlxg xkg}g

tjmkgt }xtwmxwtg} j` QLT} ltg iaxg` vtikjdjxjqg j` `jxg }loveg}.

Mi`mgvxwleez% eimle vtingmxji`} ltg l `lxwtle g{xg`}ji` ia xkg mi`mgvx ia l` lqgtlbg xtglxog`x

gstgmx xi xkg hz`lojm mi xg{x.% xklx j}% xkg ìxji` xklx rg mlemwelxg xkg lqgtlbg tg}vi`}g ia


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l qltjldeg% mi`hjxji`le i` miqltjlxg} rkg` rg qltz xkg xtglxog x qltjldeg atio xkg ist +it

mi`xtie* xi xkg i` +it xtglxog`x* vi}jxji`}. J` vtlmxjmg xklx j`xgtvtgxlxji` tgejg} btglxez i`

rkgxkgt qltjlxji`} j` xkg xtglxog`x mi`hjxji`le i` miqltjlxg} ml` dg mi`}jhgtgh g{ibgìw}it%

j` xkg mi`xg{x ia iwt lvvejmlxji`% rkgxkgt xkg qltjlxji` j` xkg loiw`x ia g{mg}} egqgtlbg j` xkg

vtjit g{vl`}ji` ml` dg mi`}jhgtgh g{ibgìw} j` xkg }wd}g|wg x tgmg}}ji`. Oitgiqgt% i`g riweh

le}i `ggh xi hgxgtoj`g xkg xtjbbgt} ia l blthg`/qltjgxz tgmg}}ji` qgt}w} l `l`mjle mtj}j} tgmg}}ji`

xi hi xkg vtivgt lhnw}xog x}. Xkg}g ltg mgtxljèz j`xgtg}xj b |wg}xji`} xklx rg j`xg`h xi vwt}wg

j` awxwtg tg}gltmk. Dwx j` xkg ogl`xjog% mi`hjxji`le i` g{vgtjg`mj b l tgmg}}ji` ia l vltxjmwelt

xzvg +xlcg` kgtg l} l bjqg`*% rg ml` g{loj`g rklx j} xkg gstgmx ia egqgtlbg lx xkg oltbj`% rkjmk

j} l w}gawe l`h jàitolxjqg mkltlmxgtj~lxji` ia xkg }lejg`x aglxwtg} ia xkg kj}xitjmle }loveg.

8.< ]xlxj}xjmle Hg}jb` W}j`b Eimle Vtingmxji`}

L `lxwtle }wooltz ia xkg hz`lojm dgklqjit ia gmiìojg} j` tgmg}}ji` j} xi ìtolej~g xkg hlxl

lx xkg }xltx ia xkg tgmg}}ji`% l`h xkg` g{loj`g xkg lqgtlbg vlxk ia xkg qltjldeg} ia j`xgtg}x atio

xklx vij`x aitrlth. Xkj} j} xkg lvvtilmk xklx j} iaxg` aieeirgh j` xkg gqg x/}xwhz ejxgtlxwtg l`h

l mel}}jm g{loveg j} xkg Tiogt l`h Tiogt + xklx j}% egx w} w}g xkg hlxl ait xkg g{vl`}ji` vtgmghj`b xkg tgmg}}ji` ia j`xgtg}x xi

mi`}xtwmx xkg tlxji ia xkg xtiwbk/xi/vglc tlxji ia eil` xi BHV btirxk hjqjhgh dz xkg hwtlxji` ia

xkg g{vl`}ji`. Xkj} bg`gtlxg} l qltjldeg xklx j} xkg lvvti{jolxg vgt/zglt tlxg ia g{mg}} mwowel/

xji` ia eg`hj`b xi iwxvwx btirxk. G{mg}} egqgtlbg ogl}wtgh j` xkj} ol``gt j} ldiwx


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jovitxl`x xi lmmiw`x ait kir xkg}g qltjldeg} klqg tgelxgh xi glmk ixkgt kj}xitjmleez. ]j`mg iwt hlxl

ltg j` vl`ge aito% xtlhjxji`le oihge/dl}gh xjog} }gtjg} ogxkih} +QLT}* ltg xii vltlogxtjmleez

j`xg`}jqg ait iwt j`qg}xjblxji`. Oitgiqgt% dgmlw}g rg ltg j`qg}xjblxj`b l tlxkgt `gr vkgìogì`%

ait rkjmk rg rl`x xi vtiqjhg tg}wex} xklx ml` dg w}gh l} l tgagtg`mg vij`x dz ixkgt tg}gltmkgt}%

rg rl`x xi w}g ogxkih} xklx ltg fflg{jdeg l`h jovi}g xkg egl}x mi`}xtlj`x} i` xkg hlxl. Ait xkg}g

tgl}i`}% rg w}g l qltjlxji` ia xkg eimle vtingmxji` lvvtilmk j`xtihwmgh j` Nithfl +4667% 466:*.

]vgmjmleez% egx zc%x hgìxg xkg ` < qgmxit ia id}gtqlxji`} ait qltjldeg c j` xkg }z}xgo ia

c ?


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@ixjmg xklx g{vtg}}ji` + rg rl x xi dg }wtg xi mi`hjxji` i` lee ixkgt lqljeldeg jàitolxji` }i l} ìx xi

vieewxg iwt ogl}wtgog x rjxk iojxxgh jàitolxji . J` almx% xkg }gx/wv j` g{vtg}}ji` + l} rg rjee }gg }kitxez% i`g ia xkg oitg

j`xtjbwj`b tg}wex} rg tgvitx dgeir }wbbg}x} xklx j` `l`mjle mtj}g}% g{mg}} egqgtlbg xg`h} xi awtxkgt

hgvtg}} eg`hj`b l`h j`qg}xog x lmxjqjxz iqgt ei`bgt vgtjih} ia xjog. Dwx xkg almx xklx xkg}g

gstgmx} immwt j` l hgffllxji`ltz g`qjtiòg`x kl} vixg`xjleez jovitxl`x jovejmlxji`} ait xkg tgegql`x

viejmz xtlhg/ist}. Jx riweh lvvglt xklx oitg xkl` i`g mg xtle dl`cgt j} vtg}g xez elditj`b w`hgt

l oj}lvvtgkg`}ji` ldiwx xkg `lxwtg ia xkg}g xtlhg/ist}.

J` vtlmxjmg% g}xjolxj`b g{vtg}}ji` +


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8.4 Mwowelxjqg Oltbj`le Gstgmx} ia Egqgtlbg

Xkj} }gmxji` j`qg}xjblxg} kir egqgtlbg lstgmx} xkg tgmg}}ji` l`h }wd}g|wg`x tgmiqgtz dz hj}xj`bwj}k/

j`b rkgxkgt xkg tgmg}}ji` j} `l`mjle j` `lxwtg +j.g.% l}}imjlxgh rjxk l `l`mjle mtj}j}* it `ix. Xkj}

j} l }jb jml x vij x ia hgvltxwtg atio xkg ejxgtlxwtg l`h i`g rg agge ritxk govkl}j~j`b. W}j`b

xkg ogxkih} nw}x hg}mtjdgh% rg w}g l `j`g qltjldeg }z}xgo xklx mi`xlj`} xkg aieeirj`b qltjldeg}>

+


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Ajbwtg 4> Xkg Oltbj`le Mwowelxgh Gstgmx ia Egqgtlbg

@ixg}> ]gg xg{x

}mitg xkg olj` og}}lbg j} }joveg> rkgtgl} j` l `itole tgmg}}ji` g{mg}} egqgtlbg ia


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lx xkg dgbj``j`b ia xkg 466; beidle `l`mjle mtj}j} ltbwldez klh g{mg}} egqgtlbg atio ogl` ia

ldiwx =' xi =.7' +vi}}jdez oitg ja i`g rgtg xi lmmiw`x oitg lmmwtlxgez ait xkg egqgtlbg j` xkg

}klhir dl`cj`b }z}xgo*. Xkg` xkg `gltez =7' htiv j` eil } `ixgh j` xkg g{vgtjog`x rg rgtg

hj}mw}}j`b gltejgt riweh }mleg hir` xi }iogxkj`b mei}gt xi l `gblxjqg


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Ajbwtg => G{mg}} Egqgtlbg l`h jx} Oltbj`le Gstgmx Hwtj`b Tgmg}}ji`} l`h Tgmiqgtjg}

@ixg}> ]gg xg{x

Hwtj`b `itole tgmg}}ji`}%


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J`qg}xog`x j} xzvjmleez xkg oi}x mzmejmleez }g`}jxjqg miovi`g`x ia BHV. Jx j} ìx l }wtvtj}g

xkg` xklx xkg dgklqjit ia xkg j`qg}xog`x xi BHV tlxji istgt} xkg dg}x ivvitxw`jxz xi id}gtqg

kir egqgtlbg lstgmx} xkg mzmeg. J` ìtole tgmg}}ji`}% g{mg}} egqgtlbg kl} l` gstgmx% dwx jx j} tlxkgt

ojeh l`h mi`xtl}x} rjxk xkg owmk }xggvgt l`h vtixtlmxgh hgmej`g} }gg` hwtj`b `l`mjle mtj}j}

tgmg}}ji`}. Rkgtgl} dz zglt }j{ xkg gstgmx ia egqgtlbg i` j`qg}xog`x j} ~gti ait l ìtole tgmg}}ji`%

ait l `l`mjle mtj}j} tgmg}}ji` j`qg}xog`x alee} dz l} owmk l} xktgg vgtmg`x dwx tgolj`} hgvtg}}gh

iqgt xkg g`xjtg }j{ zglt} hj}velzgh% lx rkjmk vij`x jx j} }xjee xri vgtmg`x dgeir ìto.

Xi }gg rklx olz dg dgkj`h xkj} dgklqjit rg xwt` ìr xi rklx klvvg`} xi eg`hj`b lmxjqjxz l`h

j`xgtg}x tlxg}. Vgtklv} ìx }wtvtj}j`bez% g{mg}} egqgtlbg kl} l `gblxjqg gstgmx olcj`b tgmg}}ji`}

rit}g. Dwx rkgtgl} xkg gstgmx j} agex j` xkg t}x zglt ia l ìtole tgmg}}ji`% jx hj}}jvlxg} tgelxjqgez

|wjmcez laxgt. J` `l`mjle mtj}j} tgmg}}ji }% dl`c eg`hj`b tglmkg} l `lhjt ia }j{ vgtmg x dz zglt

aiwt l`h tgolj`} xri vgtmg`x dgeir ìto dz zglt }j{. ]wmk l htlolxjm hgmej`g j` eg`hj`b lmxjqjxz

j} vgtklv} xkg megltg}x hjog`}ji` j` rkjmk ìtole l`h `l`mjle tgmg}}ji`} hjstgt.

Rklx j} dgkj`h xkg }kltv htiv j` mtghjx btirxk9 Iwt tg}gltmk hg}jb` hig} ìx leeir w}

xi htlr }xti`b jàgtg`mg}% dwx rg `h xklx xkg hgmej g j` eg`hj b big} kl`h j` kl`h rjxk l

hgmej g j` }kitx xgto j`xgtg}x tlxg} i` biqgtòg x }gmwtjxjg}. Jx j} megltez vi}}jdeg xklx vtjqlxg

}gmxit dittirj`b tlxg} }xlz kjbk l} eg`hgt} mwx dlmc i` mtghjx vtiqj}ji`. Dwx ja xkg j`xgtg}x tlxg

hgmej`g j} bg`wj`g l`h tgvtg}g`xlxjqg ia mtghjx mi`hjxji`} j` xkg rjhgt gmiìoz% jx miweh dg l`j`hjmlxji` xklx mtghjx hgol`h% ìx mtghjx }wvvez% j} xkg cgz almxit dgkj`h rglc mtghjx btirxk.

J` }wmk l }mg`ltji% mi`}wogt} l`h miovl`jg} }ggc xi tghwmg egqgtlbg laxgt l mtghjx/awgegh diio%

tgvljt dlel`mg }kggx} l`h ld}xlj` atio dittirj`b hg}vjxg eir j`xgtg}x tlxg}. Xkj} miweh le}i dg

l tgl}i` rkz hg}vjxg eir j`xgtg}x tlxg}% j`ffllxji`ltz vtg}}wtg} tgolj` }wdhwgh ait ol`z zglt}% j`

vltxjmwelt j` `l`mjle tgmg}}ji`}. Zgx gqg` j` ìtole tgmg}}ji`}% rg `h xklx eirgt j`xgtg}x tlxg}

hi ìx xtjbbgt ogl`j`bawe vtjmg vtg}}wtg} rkg` g{mg}} egqgtlbg j} kjbk.

Lblj`% i`g ojbkx dg mi`mgt`gh xklx xkg tg}wex} rg nw}x vtg}g`xgh miweh dg htjqg` dz xkg tlxkgt

htlolxjm hgmej`g} j` iwxvwx l`h vtjmg} g{vgtjg`mgh hwtj`b xkg Btglx Hgvtg}}ji`. Ait xkj} tgl}i`%

Ajbwtg 8 tgvglx} xkg g{gtmj}g j` Ajbwtg = w}j`b ièz vi}xRiteh Rlt JJ hlxl. Xkj} gejoj lxg}

xkg oi}x htlolxjm gqg`x} ia xkg `j`gxgg`xk l`h gltez xrg`xjgxk mg`xwtjg} lexkiwbk xkg }loveg

lqljeldeg xi jhg`xjaz `l`mjle gqg`x} j} mi`}jhgtldez }oleegt. Gqg` }i% xkg tidw}x`g}} ia xkg tg}wex}

}gg` j` Ajbwtg 8 }gtqg} xi tgjàitmg iwt `hj`b}. Xkg loiw`x l`h }klvg ia xkg gstgmx} j} }xtjcj`bez

}jojelt l`h lee tg}vi`}g} }kir` klqg vtg}gtqgh xkg }lejg`x vtivgtxjg} rg nw}x hj}mw}}gh.

41


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Ajbwtg 8> Xkg Gstgmx ia G{mg}} Egqgtlbg i` @itole l`h Aj`l`mjle Tgmg}}ji`}> L Tidw}x`g}} Mkgmc

@ixg}> ]gg xg{x

8.8 L Mlejdtlxgh Xkiwbkx G{vgtjog`x

L vtlmxjmle j`xgtvtgxlxji` ia xkg tg}wex} j` Ajbwtg = ml` dg idxlj`gh dz mi`}jhgtj`b xkg W.]. l}

l` g{loveg. G{mg}} vgt zglt egqgtlbg mioj`b j`xi xkg `l`mjle mtj}j} ia 466; rl} ldiwx i`g xkjth

xklx hj}velzgh j` Ajbwtg =% lexkiwbk leeirj`b ait xkg }klhir dl`cj`b }z}xgo% xkj} `wodgt riweh

dg vtidldez mei}gt xi i`g klea% vi}}jdez oitg. Xkw}% ja rg mkii}g 7' g{mg}} mtghjx btirxk j` xkg

g{vl`}ji` vkl}g l} l tgagtg`mg vij`x ait xkg W.]. ml}g +ogl`j`b xklx xkg ldiqg aitgml}x vlxk}

}kiweh dg }mlegh dz i`g klea*% jx j} gl}z xi }gg kir i`g ojbkx w}g xkg tg}wex} rg tgvitx atio

l W.]. viejmz vgt}vgmxjqg. L`z aitgml}x ia tgle BHV }kiweh vtidldez dg xtjoogh dz ldiwx 27

dl}j} vij`x} j` 46


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7 Egqgtlbg l`h xkg Mi}x ia Aj`l`mjle Mtj}g}

Aj`leez rg l}c% kir hi iwt `hj`b} }vglc xi xkg hgdlxg iqgt xkg mi}x} ia `l`mjle mtj}g}9 Jx j} dz

ìr miooièz lmmgvxgh xklx `l`mjle mtj}g} ml` klqg ei`b/el}xj`b gstgmx} i` xkg olmtigmiìoz%

l`h xkg tgmg`x ejxgtlxwtg govkl}j}g} xkg vij`x. J` Mgttl l`h ]l{g`l +466;*% Tgj`kltx l`h Tibi st

+466:ld% 46


31/37

Ajbwtg 7> Xkg Mwowelxjqg Gstgmx} ia Egqgtlbg

@ixg}> ]gg xg{x

7.< Olj` Tg}wex}

Xkg bwtg hj}velz} xkg lqgtlbg mwowelxgh qlewg ia xkg `j`g qltjldeg} j` iwt }z}xgo j` ìtole

qgt}w} `l`mjle tgmg}}ji`} rkg` g{mg}} vgt/zglt egqgtlbg qltjg} atio jx} j`/}loveg ogl` xi xkg

ogl` vew} i`g }xl`hlth hgqjlxji`. Xkj} qltjldjejxz j} hgvjmxgh rjxk }klhgh tgbji`} ait ìtole

qgt}w} `l`mjle tgmg}}ji`}. Rg tgoltc xklx xkg}g dl`h} }kiweh ìx xi dg j`xgtvtgxgh j` l }xlxj}xjmle

}g`}g% }wmk l} xkg hgvjmxji` ia jovwe}g tg}vi`}g} rjxk mi`hg mg dl`h}. J`}xglh% xkg dl`h} ltg

ogl`x xi vtiqjhg l qj}wle bwjhg i` xkg tl`bg ia vi}}jdeg vlxk} xklx xkg qltjldeg ia j`xgtg}x ml` xlcg

l} i`g qltjg} g{mg}} vgt zglt egqgtlbg lrlz atio jx} ogl` dz l} owmk l} i`g }xl`hlth hgqjlxji`.

Xkg mkltx} j` Ajbwtg 7 }vglc ait xkgo}geqg}. W}j`b xkg awee }loveg ia hlxl tglmkj`b dlmc xi


32/37

`l`mjle tgmg}}ji`}. L i`g }xl`hlth hgqjlxji` hjstgtg`mg ml` tg}wex j` ldiwx l 4'=' hjstgtg`mg

j` xkg mwowelxgh vlxk ia tgle BHV vgt mlvjxl lx xkg }j{ zglt oltc. Xkg vlxxgt`} j` mi`}wovxji`%

ìx }wtvtj}j`bez% ojttit xki}g j` iwxvwx.

Xkg oitg j`xgtg}xj`b hjstgtg`mg} ltg kjhhg` j` xkg tgolj`j`b qltjldeg}. Mi`}jhgt xkg dgklqjit

ia vtjqlxg eg`hj`b. J` l ìtole tgmg}}ji` xkg htiv j` vtjqlxg eil`} ojttit} xkg htiv j` tgle BHV

vgt mlvjxl l`h xkg loiw`x ia egqgtlbg lvvglt} xi klqg leoi}x ì gstgmx. Xkw} lx xkg }j{ zglt

oltc% xkg mwowelxgh htiv j} le}i ldiwx 7'. Mi`xtl}x xklx rjxk xkg }gqgtg mi`xtlmxji` j` eg`hj`b

hwtj b l `l`mjle mtj}j} tgmg}}ji . Rjxk lqgtlbg egqge} ia g{mg}} egqgtlbg% eg`hj b lmxjqjxz htiv}

dz xktgg xjog} oitg xkl` j` ìtole xjog}% ldiwx


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lmmiw`x. J` ìtole tgmg}}ji`}% xkg mwowelxjqg hgmej`g j` xkg j`qg}xog x xi BHV tlxji j} tiwbkez

i` l vlt rjxk xkg hgmej`g j` iwxvwx +dwx }j`mg rg tgvitx xkg tlxji% xkj} `lxwtleez ogl`} xklx

j`qg}xog`x j} hgmej`j`b al}xgt xkl` iwxvwx*. Xkg}g hgmej`g} ltg alt oitg htlolxjm hwtj`b `l`mjle

mtj}j} tgmg}}ji }% leoi}x xktgg xjog} l} eltbg j` olb`jxwhg. J` mi`xtl}x% mkl`bg} j` xkg mwttg`x

lmmiw`x ltg oitg oihg}x lexkiwbk kgtg xkg mkijmg ia }loveg ml` olcg l mi`}jhgtldeg hjstgtg`mg

j` xkg olb`jxwhg}% l} rg }klee }gg. Hwtj`b ìtole tgmg}}ji`} xkg mwttg x lmmiw x jovtiqg} dz

ldiwx i`g vgtmg`x l`h j` `l`mjle mtj}j} tgmg}}ji`} xklx tl`bg g{xg`h} atio ~gti xi xri vgtmg`x.

I` xklx }mitg% xkg hjstgtg`mg} dgxrgg` ìtole l`h `l`mjle tgmg}}ji`} lvvglt xi dg gmiìojmleez

}olee.

7.4 Tidw}x`g}}

Xkg Btglx Hgvtg}}ji` rl} j`hggh l qgtz htlolxjm kj}xitjmle gqg`x l`h jx j} w`hg`jldeg xklx xkg

t}x klea ia iwt }loveg j} mkltlmxgtj~gh dz alt oitg xwtdweg`x qltjlxji` j` iwt hlxl xkl` xkg elxxgt

klea. Jx j} aljt xi l}c rkgxkgt xkg htlolxjm tg}wex} xklx rg tgvitx ldiqg ltg xkg mi`}g|wg`mg ia

xki}g alt lrlz xwtdweg`x xjog}. Rg l`}rgt xkj} |wg}xji` dz tgvglxj`b xkg vtgqjiw} g{gtmj}g w}j`b

vi}x/Riteh Rlt JJ hlxl ièz l`h tgmlejdtlxj`b xkg ogl` l`h }xl`hlth hgqjlxji` ia iwt g{mg}}

egqgtlbg qltjldeg xi xkj} vgtjih. Jx j} jovitxl`x xi tgìtolej~g xkg hlxl xi xkg }loveg mi`}jhgtgh>

ait xkg awee }loveg% i` lqgtlbg xkg g{mg}} egqgtlbg qltjldeg j} ldiwx


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Ajbwtg 1> Xkg Mwowelxjqg Gstgmx} ia Egqgtlbg> L Tidw}x`g}} Mkgmc

@ixg}> ]gg xg{x

qgt}w} 7' gltejgt hwtj`b `l`mjle mtj}j} tgmg}}ji`}. Vgtklv} dgmlw}g ia xkj} oitg lbbtg}}jqg hg/

mej`g j` j`xgtg}x tlxg}% j`ffllxji` j} `ir }ejbkxez vi}jxjqg hwtj`b `itole tgmg}}ji`} l`h xkg hgmej`g}

g{vgtjg`mgh hwtj`b `l`mjle mtj}j} tgmg}}ji`} ltg ldiwx klea l} eltbg l} rg klh tgvitxgh j` xkg awee

}loveg. J`qg}xog`x hgmej`g} ltg }jojelt% ledgjx }ejbkxez oitg oihgtlxg j` xkg vi}x/Riteh Rlt JJ

}loveg. L`h `leez% }iog hjstgtg`mg} j` xkg dgklqjit ia xkg mwttg`x lmmiw`x }xltx xi gogtbg oitg

megltez. Rkgtgl} j` xkg awee }loveg lx xkg }j{ zglt oltc xkg jovtiqgog x j` xkg mwttg x lmmiw x

vi}jxji` rl} j` xkg


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1 Mi`mew}ji`

Dl}gh i` xkg }xwhz ia `gltez 466 tgmg}}ji` gvj}ihg} j` xkg vl}x


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Ltgeel`i% Ol`wge% l`h ]xgvkg` Di`h 4224:2

Dlmcw}% Hlqjh% l`h Vlxtjmc Cgkig ;18;;;Dltti% Tidgtx N% l`h Ni}g A Wt}wl 466; Olmtigmi`iojm Mtj}g} }j mg


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Cti}~ gt% Tl`hlee ]% Ewm Elgqg`% l`h Hl`jgel Cej`bgdjge 4662 Dl`cj b Mtj}g}% Aj`l`mjle Hgvg`hg mgl`h Btirxk Niwt`le ia Aj`l`mjle Gmi`iojm} ;8> L @gr Hlxldl}g JOA Ritcj`b

Vlvgt 6;)448Og`hi~l% G`tj|wg B% l`h Oltmi Xgtti`g} 466; L` L`lxioz ia Mtghjx Diio}> Gqjhg`mg Atio OlmtiLbbtgblxg} l`h Ojmti Hlxl JOA Ritcj`b Vlvgt 6;)441

Ojl`% Lxja% l`h Lojt ]w 46 Xkg Logtjml}% Vlebtlqg

OlmOjeel`@jmcgee% ]xgvkg`

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