Level of Knowledge

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Year

Perc

en

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ost

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an

t N

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s S

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rce

TV

Newspapers

Magazines

Radio

Internet

Most Important News Source, 1959 – 2005

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IDEOLOGICAL SELF-IDENTIFICATION1973-1998

Year

1998

1994

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1980

1977

1975

1973

Perc

ent Id

entif

ying A

s:

50

40

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10

0

Self-Identification

Moderate

Conservative/

Very Conservative

Liberal/

Very Liberal

Slight Liberal

Slight Conservative

Sources of Questionnaire Errors

Effect of “issue publics” on politicsReturn

CBS News Poll. July 29-Aug. 2, 2005. N=1,222 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).

"What is your personal feeling about abortion? (1) It should be permitted in all cases. (2) It should be permitted, but subject to greater restrictions than it is now. (3) It should be permitted only in cases such as rape, incest and to save the woman's life. OR, (4) It should only be permitted to save the woman's life."

AllCases

GreaterRestrictions

Rape,Incest,

Woman'sLife

OnlyWoman's

LifeNever(vol.) Unsure

% % % % % %

7/29 - 8/2/05

28 15 33 15 5 4

Why Sampling Matters: The Ill-Fated Story ofThe Literary Digest

• 1920—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner

• 1924—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner

• 1928—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner

• 1932—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner

1936--Sent out 10 million postcards (U.S. population = 125 million).

Selected names from:

1) Telephone books

2) Club rosters

3) Automobile registration lists

4) Mail order customers

Recipients mailed in postcards.

Postcards predict—Alf Landon: 57%, Franklin Roosevelt: 43%

Election Results—Alf Landon: 38%, Franklin Roosevelt: 62%

Literary Digest GOES OUT OF BUSINESS

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The Amazing Shrinking Soundbite!Return

Average Uninterrupted Speech Time on Network Evening Newscasts—Presidential Candidates:

• 1968—43 seconds

• 1988—9.8 seconds

• 1992—8.4 seconds

• 1996—7.2 seconds.

Eschew Obfuscation! (Be Clear!)

• A 1992 poll conducted by the Roper polling organization found that 22 percent of the public thought the 1939-1945 Holocaust of Jews in Europe never happened.

• The question: “Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?”

• Subsequent poll (with clearer wording) found that

between 2 and 9 percent of Americans thought the Holocaust had not happened.

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Giving the “right” answer

On sensitive issues, people may give “acceptable” rather than honest responses. Their answers may depend on things like the gender or race of the interviewer.

Question: Abortion is “a private matter that should be left to the woman to decide without government intervention.”

Percentage who agreedWhen interviewed by a

manWhen interviewed by a

woman

Men 70% 77%

Women 64% 84%Source: Eagleton Institute Survey

Giving the “right” answer 2

On sensitive issues, people may give “acceptable” rather than honest responses. Their answers may depend on things like the gender or race of the interviewer.

Question: The problems faced by blacks “were brought on by blacks themselves.”

Percentage who agreedWhen interviewed by

whitesWhen interviewed by

blacks

Whites 62% 46%Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll

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Question order/Answer order mattersThe way questions are phrased, the possible answers that are offered and

the order in which comparisons are made can have profound effects on people’s answers.

Question: “Would you say that traffic contributes more or less

to air pollution than industry?”– Traffic contributes more: 45%

– Industry contributes more: 32%

Question: “Would you say that industry contributes more or less

to air pollution than traffic?”– Traffic contributes more: 24%

– Industry contributes more: 57%

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Our UT-Tyler Scientific Poll

• We want to find out how students feel about turning Tyler into a “wet” city—allowing the off-premise sale of alcohol.

1. Identify population– Who do we ask?– How/Where do we get the information?

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2. Random selection of the sample

• How do we randomly sample?

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3. Construct the questionnaire

• What should our question say?

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4. Administer questionnaire

• How will we conduct our poll?

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5. Interpret Results

• Be wary of close results/MoE issues

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MAJOR Source of Interpretation Error

1. Margin of Error (MoE): a statistical tool used to balance against “error” in sampling

– MoE can often wash out “results”– “Statistical dead heat”

Nightly news: “A recent poll taken about the Republican Party nomination for the 2016 presidential election gives

Senator Marco Rubio a slim lead over Jeb Bush, Governor Chris Christie, and Rick Santorum.”

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Notice

This race is a “statistical dead heat”

2nd MAJOR Source of Interpretation Error

1. Margin of Error (MoE): a statistical tool used to balance against “error” in sampling

– MoE can often wash out “results”– “Statistical dead heat”

2. 95% Confidence: Statistical theory--one in every 20 surveys reports incorrect results.

Polls and the need to create news BUSH KERRY Margin

Survey End Date

% % Bush Kerry

GWU Battleground

11/1 50 46 4

TIPP 11/1 47 44 3 FOX/Opinion Dynamics

10/31 46 48 2

CNN/USA Today/Gallup

10/31 49 47 2

TIPP 10/31 45 44 1 GWU Battleground

10/31 49 45 4

TIPP 10/30 47 42 5 FOX/Opinion Dynamics

10/29 47 45 2

Newsweek 10/29 51 45 6 TIPP 10/29 45 44 1 FOX/Opinion Dynamics

10/28 50 45 5

GWU Battleground

10/28 50 45 5

Which of these polls is most likely to “make news”?

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Nightly news: “A recent poll taken about the Republican Party nomination for the 2016 presidential election gives

Senator Marco Rubio a slim lead over Jeb Bush, Governor Chris Christie, and Rick Santorum.”

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Notice

(This really happens, by the way.)

A “politico” and a “pundit”

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The Washington Redskins and Presidential Politics

• In 15 of the previous 17 presidential elections, if the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House. When they have won, the incumbent has stayed in power.

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A “bellwether” constituency

• Election results in Vigo County, IN have been within 0.9% points for all Democratic and Republican presidential candidates since 1960.

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