les aspin center of marquette university€¦ · les aspin center of marquette university william...
TRANSCRIPT
Les Aspin Center of Marquette University
William Broydrick - Broydrick & Associates
March 10, 2016
How the Democrats Rise Again
A Simple Strategy
1. Hold on to the Executive2. Take back the Senate
Quick Facts on the Senate
• Blue = 2 Democrats• Red = 2 Republicans
• Purple = 1 Democrat & 1 Republican• Green = Independent
• Senate Composition• Republican – 54• Democrat – 44• Independent – 2*
• Upcoming Elections• Republican – 24• Democrat – 10
• Safe Wins• Republican – 13• Democrats – 8
•Potentially Open• Republican – 11• Democrat - 2
*Bernie Sanders (VT) & Angus King (ME) – both caucus as Democrats
Who’s Seat is Safe?
Democrats
• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (CA) – Was held by Barbara Boxer (D) since 1993 – D+9• California has a “top two” primary system which means its not a given a Republican will even be on the ballot at all – two democrats could finish top two• Retiring Senator Barbara Boxer (D) previously beat Carly Fiorina (R) by 10%
• Richard Blumenthal (CT) – Senator since 2011 – D+7• Only August Wolf (R) has declared, primary is June 7, 2016• Won last election with 55.2% of the vote, 12% more than next closest competitor
• Brian Schatz (HI) – Senator since 2012 – D+20• Only Charles Collins (R) has declared, primary is August 13, 2016• Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 69.8% of the vote, 42% more than next closest competitor
• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (MD) – Was held by Barbara Mikulski since 1987 – D+10• Retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) previously beat Eric Wargotz (R) by 27%
• Chuck Schumer (NY) – Senator since 1999 – D+11• Only Wendy Long (R) officially currently in race, primary is June 28, 2016• Won last election with 66.4% of the vote, 33% more than next closest competitor
Who’s Seat is Safe?
Democrats
• Ron Wyden (OR) – Senator since 1996 – D+5• Four Republicans currently vying for nomination, primary is May 17, 2016• Won last election with 57.22% of the vote, 18% more than next closest competitor
•Patrick Leahy (VT) – Senator since 1975– D+16• No Republican opponent officially currently in race, primary is August 9, 2016• Won last election with 64.3% of the vote, 14% more than next closest competitor
• Patty Murray (WA) – Senator since 1993 – D+5• Only Chris Vance (R) has declared, primary is August 2, 2016• Won last election with 52.36% of the vote, 5% more than next closest competitor
8/10 Seats Secure
Who’s Seat is Safe?
Republicans
• Lisa Murkowski (AK) – Senator since 2002 – R+12• No Democratic opponent currently in race, there are three independents• Lost 2010 primary, but later won over a fellow Republican as a write-in candidate with 39.49% of the vote
• Richard Shelby (AL) – Senator since 1987 – R+14• Running against Ronald Crumpton (D)• Won last election with 65.3% of the vote, 21% more than next closest competitor
• John Boozman (AR) – Senator since 2011 – R+14• Running against Connor Eldridge (D)• Won last election over an incumbent with 57.90% of the vote, a margin of 21%
• Johnny Isakson (GA) – Senator since 2005 – R+6• No Democratic opponent currently in race, there are two independents• Won last election with 58.3% of the vote, 19% more than next closest competitor
• Chuck Grassley (IA) – Senator since 1981 – D+1• Four Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 7, 2016• Won last election with 64.35% of the vote, 31% more than next closest competitor
Who’s Seat is Safe?
Republicans
• Mike Crapo (ID) – Senator since 1999 – R+18 • No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is May 17, 2016• Won last election with 71.2% of the vote, 46% more than the next closest competitor
• Jerry Moran (KS) – Senator since 2011 – R+12• Two Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 1, 2016• Won last election with 70.3% of the vote, 44% more than next closest competitor
• Rand Paul (KY) – Senator since 2011 – R+13• Seven Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is May 17, 2016• Won last election over an incumbent with 55.69% of the vote, a margin of 11%
• John Hoeven (ND) – Senator since 2011 – R+10• No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is June 14, 2016• Won last election with 76.1% of the vote, 54% more than next closest competitor
• James Lankford (OK) – Senator since 2015 – R+19• No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is June 28, 2016• Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 67.9% of the vote, 38% more than next closest competitor
Who’s Seat is Safe?
Republicans
• Tim Scott (SC) – Senator since 2013 – R+8 • Two Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 14, 2016• Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 61.1% of the vote, 24% more than next closest competitor
• John Thune (SD) – Senator since 2005– R+10• Only Jay Williams (D) has declared, primary is June 7, 2016• Won last election running unopposed
• Mike Lee (UT) – Senator since 2011 – R+22• Only Jonathan Swinton (D) has declared, primary is June 28, 2016• Won last election with 61.6% of the vote, 29% more than the next closest competitor
13/24 Seats Secure
The Tough Races
Democrats
• Michael Bennet (CO) – Senator since 2009 – D+1• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (NV) – Was held by Harry Reid (D) since 1987 – D+2
Republicans
• John McCain (AZ) – Senator since 1987 – R+7 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (FL) – Was held by Marco Rubio (R) since 2011 – R+2
• Mark Kirk (IL) – Senator since 2011 – D+8• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (IN) – Was held by Daniel Coats (R) since 2011 – R+5• OPEN SEAT ELECTION (LA) – Was held by David Vitter (R) since 2005 – R+12
• Roy Blunt (MO) – Senator since 2011 – R+7• Richard Burr (NC) – Senator since 2005 – R+3• Kelly Ayotte (NH) – Senator since 2011 – D+1• Rob Portman (OH) – Senator since 2011 – R+1• Patrick Toomey (PA) – Senator since 2011 – D+1• Ron Johnson (WI) – Senator since 2011 – D+2
Colorado
Michael Bennet (inc.)
V.
Robert Blaha, businessman and candidate for CO-05 in 2012Charlie Ehler, retired Air Force computer programmer and Tea Party activistJerry Eller, former insurance and real estate agentRyan Frazier, former Aurora City Councilman, nominee for CO-07 in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Aurora in 2011Darryl Glenn, El Paso County CommissionerJack Graham, former Colorado State University Athletic DirectorTom Janich, former Brighton School Board member and perennial candidateJon Keyser, State RepresentativeMichael Kinlaw, mortgage brokerPeggy Littleton, El Paso County Commissioner and former Colorado State Board of Education memberGreg Lopez, former Director of the Small Business Administration Colorado District, former Mayor of Parker and State Senate candidate in 2000Jerry Natividad, businessmanTim Neville, State SenatorDonald Rosier, Jefferson County Commissioner
Colorado
Michael Bennet (inc.) ✔
Why the Democrats hold:• Colorado has gone blue for the past two presidential elections• Mike Coffman (R) decided not to run for the seat and was considered the Republican’s best chance. At the time he polled 3 points higher than Bennet• The thirteen GOP candidates shows lack of party unity and clear direction – no strong candidates on GOP side• Bennet has the benefit of the incumbent bump
Why this could be wrong:• Most recent polling data for Colorado shows Republican presidential candidates winning over all Democrats handedly
Nevada
Catherine Cortez MastoFormer Attorney General
V.
Sharron Angle, former state Assemblywoman
Bob Beers, Las Vegas City Councilman and former State Senator
Eddie Hamilton, businessman
Dr. Joe Heck, U.S. Representative from Nevada
Robert X. Leeds, Executive Editor at Epic Publishing Company
Nevada
Catherine Cortez MastoFormer Attorney General
✔
Why the Democrats hold:• Recent data shows Nevada shifting further Democrat with its 2012 PVI of D+1 shifting to D+2 in 2016• Nevada has gone Democrat in the past two presidential elections• Catherine Cortez Masto is the only candidate to have won a state-wide campaign and did so twice• Catherine has the infrastructure left behind by Senate juggernaut Harry Reid
Why this could be wrong:• Despite Obama’s 2012 electoral victory, Democrats still lost the Senate race in that year• Rep. Heck is a popular politician and a strong competitor for the Senate seat, he wins out of a largely blue district and did so in 2012 despite Obama’s win
Arizona
V.
John McCain (inc.)Ann KirkpatrickU.S. Representative
Arizona
John McCain (inc.) ✔
Why the Republicans hold:• Recent data shows Arizona shifting further Republican with its 2012 PVI of R+6 shifting to R+7 in 2016• A Democrat hasn’t won an Arizona Senate race since 1988• The most recent polling data shows McCain defeating Kirkpatrick• McCain has the incumbent bump
Why this could be wrong:• The most recent polling data shows McCain at 41% and Kirkpatrick at 40% with a 3.7% margin of error –meaning this could easily be a 44% Kirkpatrick over 37% McCain• Earlier polls show McCain with a significant lead (51% to 36%) suggesting that momentum is not on his side
Florida
V.
David JollyU.S. Representative
Alan GraysonU.S. Representative
Patrick MurphyU.S. Representative
Florida
David JollyU.S. Representative
✔
Why the Republicans hold:• Most likely matchup according to recent polling data is Jolly v. Grayson, a September poll shows a +3 Jolly lead• Florida is an R+2, this right leaning tendency could swing a close race• Grayson, who is the current Democratic front-runner has already started scheduling one-on-one debates with Jolly
Why this could be wrong:• The biggest factor is the Democratic primary, if Grayson loses and Murphy gets the nomination this swings back in the Democrats favor• Polls showing Grayson over Murphy (33% to 22%) have a 45% undecided vote that could easily swing the primary to Murphy• Polls show Murphy +5 over Jolly
Illinois
V.
Mark Kirk (inc.)Tammy DuckworthU.S. Representative
Illinois
Tammy DuckworthU.S. Representative
✔
Why the Democrats gain this seat:• The last time Democrat lost a Senate race in Illinois in a presidential election year was 1972• Most recent poll shows Duckworth leading Kirk by 6%• Illinois is a D+8, giving close races a strong chance of falling Democrat
Why this could be wrong:• The margin of error of the most recent poll is 3.2% which could mean this is a dead heat• Senator Kirk is the incumbent and is running scandal free, this helps any politician significantly
Indiana
V.
Baron HillFormer U.S. Representative
Marlin StutzmanU.S. Representative
Todd YoungU.S. Representative
Indiana
Marlin StutzmanU.S. Representative
Todd YoungU.S. Representative
✔
Why the Republicans hold:• Stutzman recently defeated Young in the Indiana straw poll he also leads by 14% according to a Gun Owners of America Poll showing he may win the primary – a 2010 poll of Stutzman v. Hill shows Stutzman trouncing Hill (41% to 33%) by an 8% margin• Indiana is an R+5, giving close races a strong chance of falling Republican
Why this could be wrong:• The last two Indiana Senate races during a presidential campaign year have gone Democrat• Indiana has been slowly moving to the left slipping from an R+6 in 2012 to an R+5 in 2016
Louisiana
V.
Charles Boustany, US Representative
Joseph Cao, Former US Representative
John Fleming, US Representative
Rob Maness, Retired United States Air Force Colonel
Eric Skrmetta, Public Service Commissioner
Caroline FayardAttorney
Foster CampbellPublic Service Commissioner
John Kennedy, State Treasurer
Louisiana
Charles Boustany, US Representative
Joseph Cao, Former US Representative
John Fleming, US Representative
Rob Maness, Retired United States Air Force Colonel
Eric Skrmetta, Public Service Commissioner
John Kennedy, State Treasurer
✔
Why the Republicans hold:• Data shows Louisiana shifting further Republican with its 2012 PVI of R+10 shifting to R+12 in 2016• Louisiana has a jungle primary• Recent polls show Kennedy taking 22.1% followed by Boustany with 10.2%. The closest Democrat is Campbell with 7.2%• Even should a Democrat get to the runoff, the combined votes for Democrats WITH the undecided vote is only 41.4%Why this could be wrong:• Louisiana just elected a Democratic Governor so tides could be changing
Missouri
V.
Roy Blunt (inc.)Jason Kander Secretary of State
Missouri
Roy Blunt (inc.)
Why the Republicans hold:• Most recent polling data shows Blunt leading Kander (43% to 33%) by a margin of 10%• Missouri has moved further right in recent years with a PVI of R+3 in 2012 growing to R+5 in 2016• Roy Blunt is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage• Secretary of states, which Kander is, have rarely been successful in Senatorial campaigns to the point that many believed the position to be cursed
Why this could be wrong:• Roy Blunt has yet to run in a presidential election year, which significantly changes the demographics• Jason Kander is a rising Democratic star in Missouri, he is the youngest statewide elected official
✔
North Carolina
V.
Richard Burr (inc.)Deborah RossFormer North Carolina State Representative
North Carolina
Richard Burr (inc.)
Why the Republicans hold:• Most recent polling data shows Burr leading Ross (44% to 35%) by a margin of 9%• Since North Carolina is an R+3, close races would be more likely to swing Republican• Richard Burr is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage
Why this could be wrong:• North Carolina has been slowly moving to the left slipping from an R+4 in 2012 to an R+3 in 2016
✔
New Hampshire
V.
Kelly Ayotte (inc.)Maggie HassanGovernor of New
Hampshire
New Hampshire
Maggie HassanGovernor of New
Hampshire
✔
Why the Democrats gain this seat:• Hassan trails Ayotte by 4% in the most recent polls, but this is well within the margin of error. • New Hampshire is a D+1 in a race that is a dead heat, this small Democratic lean can be enough to tip the scales• No Independent Candidate is in the race leaving the vast majority of New Hampshire voters up for grabs•Hassan is a top pick for a Vice-Presidential run, which may distract her in this close race
Why this could be wrong:• Ayotte is still leading in the polls• Ayotte has powerful financial backers – Koch Bros• As the incumbent Ayotte has a slight advantage
Ohio
V.
Rob Portman (inc.)Ted StricklandFormer Governor of Ohio
Ohio
Rob Portman (inc.)
Why the Republicans hold:• Portman trails Strickland by 2% in the most recent polls, but this is well within the margin of error• Portman originally trailed as much as 9%, since March 2015 ha has closed Strickland’s lead• Since North Carolina is an R+1, close races would be more likely to swing Republican• Rob Portman is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage• Kasich’s run for Presidency has likely gotten many Republicans to register to vote• Since 1992, Ohio has elected a Senator and President in the same party, current polls show Ohio likely to go Republican in the Presidential electionWhy this could be wrong:• Portman is still trailing• As a former Ohio Governor, Strickland has proven viability in state-wide campaigns
✔
Pennsylvania
V.
Patrick Toomey (inc.)
John FettermanMayor of Braddock
Joe Sestak, Jr.Former U.S.
Representative
Katie McGintyFormer Chief of Staff
for Governor Wolf
Joseph VodvarkaBusinessman
Pennsylvania
Patrick Toomey (inc.)
Why the Republicans hold:• While the Democratic primary is wide open, Toomey is polling well against all three candidates, he is predicted as 12% over McGinty, 10% over Sestak, 7% over Fetterman• Pennsylvania is slowly moving further right, from a D+2 in 2012 to a D+1 in 2016•Patrick Toomey is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage
Why this could be wrong:• Polling data showing Toomey over possible Democratic competitors is not recent, once a Democratic frontrunner is picked these numbers could change drastically
✔
Wisconsin
V.
Ron Johnson (inc.)Russ FeingoldFormer US Senator
Russ FeingoldFormer US Senator
Wisconsin
Why the Democrats gain this seat:• The last time Democrat lost a Senate race in Illinois in a presidential election year was 1980• Most recent poll shows Feingold leading Johnson (49%-37%) by a margin of 12%• Wisconsin is a D+2, giving close races a strong chance of falling Democrat
Why this could be wrong:• Senator Johnson is the incumbent, giving him a significant boost in the election
✔
Final Tally
What now?
With so much time before November anything can happen, but hoping for more than one
miracle may be too much to ask. Democrats need to take the Presidency to have any hope
of regaining control of the Senate.
Presidential Election
Ted CruzUS Senator
John KasichGovernor of Ohio
Marco RubioUS Senator
Donald TrumpBusinessman
V.Hillary Clinton
Former Secretary of State
Bernie SandersUS Senator
The Democratic Primary
State Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Super Delegates
IA 23 21 8
NH 9 15 8
NV 20 15 8
SC 39 14 6
AL 44 9 7
AR 22 10 5
CO 28 38 12
GA 73 29 15
MA 46 45 25
MN 31 46 16
OK 17 21 4
TN 44 23 8
State Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Super Delegates
TX 147 75 29
VT 0 16 10
VA 62 33 14
AS 4 2 5
DA 4 9 4
KS 10 23 4
LA 37 14 8
NE 10 15 5
ME 9 16 5
MI 63 67 17
MS 32 4 5
MP 4 2 5
The Democratic Primary
State Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Super Delegates
FL 141 73 32
IL 78 78 26
MO 36 35 13
NC 60 47 14
OH 81 62 17
AZ 44 31 10
ID 5 18 4
UT 6 27 4
AK 3 13 4
HI 8 17 10
WA 27 74 17
Total 1264 1037 384
Democratic Delegates Left
State PledgedDelegates
Super Delegates
WI 86 10
WY 14 4
NY 247 44
CT 55 16
DE 21 10
MD 95 23
PA 189 21
RI 24 9
IN 83 9
GU 7 5
WV 29 8
KY 55 5
State PledgedDelegates
Super Delegates
OR 61 13
VI 7 5
PR 60 7
CA 475 73
MT 21 6
NJ 126 16
NM 34 9
ND 18 5
SD 20 5
DC 20 26
UA 0 1
Total 1747 330
State by State Predictions
Candidate WI WY NY CT DE MD PA RI IN GU WV KY OR VI PR CA
Hillary Clinton
56 0 187 35 0 69 132 16 0 0 6 34 38 0 0 307
BernieSanders
25 0 46 10 0 17 35 6 0 0 20 14 16 0 0 120
Too Close to Call
5 14 14 10 21 9 22 2 83 7 3 7 7 7 60 48
Super Delegates
10 4 44 16 10 23 21 9 9 5 8 5 13 5 7 73
State by State Predictions
Candidate MT NJ NM ND SD DC TOTAL
Hillary Clinton 0 91 22 0 0 0 2257
Bernie Sanders 0 23 8 0 0 0 1377
Too Close to Call 21 12 4 18 20 20 414
Super Delegates 6 16 9 5 5 26 714
Democratic Nominee
Hillary ClintonFormer Secretary of State
Why Hillary gets the nomination?• Given the current polling data Hillary has
2257 pledged delegates to Bernie’s 1377• Even if all undecided voters swung to
Bernie he would still trail 2257-1791• Hillary has more support from
superdelegates, easily enough to push her over 2383
What could make this change?• Bernie Sanders consistently polls low,
millennials favor Sanders and are less likely to have a landline and to not be on the do not call list
• A major disruption in the status quo, such as a Hillary Clinton indictment
The Republican Primary
State Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich
IA 7 8 7 1
NH 11 3 2 4
SC 50 0 0 0
NV 14 6 7 1
AL 36 13 1 0
AK 14 14 0 0
AR 16 15 9 0
GA 43 17 16 0
MA 22 4 8 8
MN 8 13 17 0
OK 13 15 13 0
TN 33 16 9 0
State Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich
TX 48 104 3 0
VT 8 0 0 8
VA 17 8 16 5
KS 9 24 6 1
KY 17 15 7 7
LA 18 18 5 0
ME 9 12 0 2
PR 0 0 23 0
HI 11 7 1 0
ID 12 20 0 0
MI 25 17 0 17
MS 25 15 0 0
The Republican Primary
State Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich
VI 1 1 2 0
DC 0 0 10 9
GU 0 1 0 0
WY 1 9 1 0
FL 99 0 0 0
IL 54 9 0 6
MO 37 15 0 0
MP 9 0 0 0
NC 30 27 6 9
OH 0 0 0 66
AZ 58 0 0 0
UT 0 40 0 0
Total 755 466 169 144
Republican Delegates Left
State Delegates
WI 42
NY 95
CT 28
DE 16
MD 38
PA 71
RI 19
IN 57
NE 36
WV 34
OR 28
State Delegates
WA 44
CA 172
MT 27
NJ 51
NM 24
ND 28
SD 29
Total 839
State by State Predictions
Candidate WI NY CT DE MD PA RI IN NE WV OR WA CA MT NJ NM ND SD Total
DonaldTrump
26 58 17 0 22 36 8 0 0 29 0 0 68 0 51 6 0 0 1076
TedCruz
7 9 2 0 6 10 2 0 0 2 0 0 41 0 0 6 0 0 551
JohnKasich
4 8 2 0 4 11 3 0 0 1 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 202
Too Closeto Call
5 20 7 16 6 14 6 57 36 2 28 44 38 27 0 12 28 29 375
Republican Nominee
Why Trump gets the nomination?• Given the current polling data Trump has
1076 pledged delegates to the next closest, Cruz’s 551
• The 1076 number is an extremely conservative estimate leaving 375 delegates uncalled – if just more than a third of those swing Trump he can get the needed 1237
What could make this change?• Growing dissent within the party could
lead to a contested convention – its not a given Trump will get the 1237 delegates needed to lock Donald Trump
Businessman
The Presidential Race
Donald TrumpBusinessman
Hillary ClintonFormer Secretary of State
V
The Presidential Race
Hillary ClintonFormer Secretary of State
Why Hillary wins?• Current polls show Hillary leading Trump
in a general (50.0%-38.8%) by an average of 11.2%
• Trump’s controversial statements likely make him unelectable and will serve to drive many Republicans not to vote and many Democrats to hit the polls
What could make this change?• Trump has proven a formidable political
opponent that feeds on controversy, Hillary’s growing list of scandals may be all the cannon fodder he needs
✔
How the Democrats Rise Again
A Simple Strategy
1. Hold on to the Executive2. Take back the Senate
✔
X
Conclusion
• Despite being unlikely to take back the Senate the Democratic Party will make significant gains
• The Democrats are very likely to hold on to the Presidency, this means any tie in the Senate will swing their way
• While this election cycle seems to bode well for the Democrats, 2018 will have 24 Democratic Senators up for reelection