lekcija: eirozonas ekonomika un monetārā politika
TRANSCRIPT
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EURO AREA ECONOMY AND MONETARY POLICY
03.04.2017ANETE KRAVINSKA
ECONOMIST IN BANK OF LATVIA
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Saturs
The Eurosystem
Structure of the euro area economy
Global environment
Monetary policy implementation in the euro area
Monetary policy instruments
The impact of monetary policy decisions
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1.THE EUROSYSTEM
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♦ EURO AREA♦ OTHER EU COUNTRIES♦ UNILATERALLY ADOPTED EURO
Which countries use euro as their national currency?
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5What is Eurosystem?
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Source: ECB
Functions of the Eurosystem
Collect and centralize statistics
from national authorities and
economic agents
Issue bank notes in the Eurozone
International cooperation • Define and implement
monetary policy in the Eurozone
• Conduct foreign exchange operations
• Hold and manage the official foreign exchange reserves of each country
Contributes to the stability of the
financial system
MAIN FUNCTIONS Consultation of stakeholders
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Source: ECB
ECB's primary objective – price stability
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Each member of GovC has one wote, since 2015 there is rotation
ECB GovC meets once in 6 weeks to discuss the economic and monetary developments in order to take decisions
Source: ECB
Who is making decisions in euro area?
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Where are the ECB
headquarters located?
a) Paris
b) Frankfurt
c) Brussels
d) Berlin
Question
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2. STRUCTURE OF THE EURO AREA ECONOMY
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Population (mn)
Source: Eurostat, IMF WEO, World Bank
Euro are on global scene
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EA population by country(%)
Eurostat
75% of EA population come from Germany, France, Italy or Spain
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World GDP, 2015 (%)
World Bank
Euro are on global scene
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EA GDP by country, 2016 (%)
Eurostat
France and Germany contribute 50% to the GDP of the euro area
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Value added in euro area by sector(%)
Eurostat
The largest sectors in euro area are public administration & defence and industry
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GDP per capita 2015 (thousand USD)
World Bank
Euro are on global scene
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GDP per capita (thousand EUR)
Eurostat
The levels of GDP per capita are very diverse across EA countries
Luxe
mbourg
Ireland
Netherlands
Austria
Finland
Germany
BelgiumFra
nce
Euro areaIta
lySp
ainMalta
Cyprus
Slove
nia
Portugal
Greece
Estonia
Slova
kia
Lithuania
Latvi
a0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20052015
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World exports (%)
Source: World Bank
Euro are on global scene
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Euro area export partners, 2016 (%)
Source: Eurostat
The largest EA export partners are USA, UK and China
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Main product groups in euro area exports (%)
Eurostat
The largest export product group is machinery and transport equipment
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Which of euro area countries has the highest GDP per capita?
a) Latvia
b) Switzerland
c) Luxembourg
d) Monaco
Question
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3. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
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23IMF predicts moderate growth in future
World GDP (yoy, %)
IMF
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
1
1
Forecast Developed countries Emerging countries
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24Commodities' prices experienced big slump over 2014-2015, now are recovering
Global commodities prices (food (index), crude oil (USD/bar))
Bloomberg, Reuters* forecast based on futures contracts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160FoodCrude oil (rhs)
-70%
Jan-15Apr-1
5Jul-1
5Oct-
15Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16Oct-
16Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17Oct-
17-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Actual data Forecast*
Crude oil price yoy (%)
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25Euro has stabilized lately
EUR/ USD exchange rate and NEER 38 (NEER 99Q1=100)
Bloomberg
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201780
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
NEER (38)
EUR USD
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4. LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN EURO AREA ECONOMY
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Euro area GDP growth (yoy, %)
Source: Eurostat, ECB
Moderate recovery continues in euro area19
96
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1.6
2.62.9 3.0
3.8
2.1
0.90.6
2.21.6
3.22.9
0.4
-4.5
2.11.6
-0.8-0.3
0.91.6 1.7
2017 2018 20190.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%1.8%
1.7% 1.6%
March-2016 June-2016 Sept-2016Dec-2017 March-2017
ECB's EA GDP growth projections (%)
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Contributions to real GDP y/y growth rate, p.p.
Source: Eurostat
Domestic demand continues to be the main driver of the euro area GDP growth
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0Net exports
Changes in inventories
Investment
Private consumption
Government consumption
GDP
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Real GDP index, 2008Q1=100 Real GDP growth, %
Source: Eurostat, BoL calculations
Euro area has nearly returned to pre crisis level, Latvia has still some catching up to do
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
Euro areaGermanyGreeceSpainFranceItalyLatvia
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1.6
-0.9-0.3
0.9
1.6 1.7
6.2
4.0
3.02.4
2.7 2.5
Euro area Latvia
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Inflation in euro area (yoy, %)
Source: Eurostat
Inflation close to ECB's target, mainly due to base effects20
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Inflation Core inflationECB target
ECB's inflation forecasts (yoy %)
2017 2018 20190.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
March-2016 June-2016 Sept-2016Dec-2017 March-2017
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Now already all of the euro area countries have positive inflation rates
Source: Eurostat
Inflation in euro area countries, %, yoy
Belg
ium
Spai
n
Latv
ia
Esto
nia
Lithu
ania
Luxe
mbo
urg
Aust
ria
Germ
any
Euro
are
a
Fran
ce
Neth
erla
nds
Gree
ce
Slov
enia
Mal
ta
Port
ugal
Italy
Finl
and
Slov
akia
Cypr
us
Irela
nd
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.53.1
2.9 2.9 2.82.5 2.5
2.11.9 1.8
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.31.0 0.9 0.9
0.7
0.2
2016M112016M122017M01
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Contribution to EA inflation by components, ppts
Source: Eurostat
Energy prices have had big impact on the inflation
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Energy-forecast*
Services
Energy
NEIG
All items
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Source: Eurostat
Without stronger rebound of growth, there is little chance for a substantial decline in unemployment rates
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Euro areaGermanyGreeceSpainFranceItalyLatvia
Unemployment rate, %
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General government debt, % of GDP
Greece Ita
ly
Portugal
Cypru
s
Belgium
Spain
France
Irelan
d
Austria
Slove
nia
German
y
Netherl
ands
Malta
Finlan
d
Slova
kia
Lithuan
iaLat
via
Luxembourg
Estonia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200177
133 129
109 106 99 96 9486 83
71 65 64 6353
43 3621
10
65
91
20072015EA '07EA '15
Source: Eurostat
The rapid increase in sovereign debt levels raises serious concerns about its sustainability and future economic growth
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Fiscal balance, % of GDP
-16.0-14.0-12.0-10.0
-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.0
-15.2-13.9
-11.0-9.8 -9.3 -8.9
-7.9 -7.2-6.1 -5.6 -5.5 -5.5 -5.3 -5.3
-3.3 -3.0 -2.5
-0.5
0.0
-13.1
-6.5
-1.6
-4.7 -4.4
-1.1 -1.6-2.7
-3.8-2.9
-0.7
-2.9-1.8
-2.7-1.4 -1.5
0.6
-3.1
0.6 0.4
-3.8
20092015
Source: Eurostat
Budget deficit is still close to or above the 3% threshold in several euro area countries
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What is the main factor impacting inflation levels in the euro area recently?
a) ECB monetary policy
b) Drop in service prices
c) Lack of structural reforms
d) Global oil price developments
Question
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5. MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION IN THE EURO AREA
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Source: ECB
Monetary policy in the euro areaMonetary policy target
Price stabilityInflation close but below 2%
Standart instruments Non-standart instruments
Deposit/lending facility
Requirements on reserves
MRO, LTRO Asset buying programs
(EAPP)
Additional liquidity support
Forward guidance
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Source: ECB
Provide liquidity
Provide collateral
Eurosystem
Banks
€ €Return collateral
Return borrowed money+%
Eurosystem
Banks
€ %+€ %+
1. 2. Refinancing operations
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Main policy rates (% p.a.)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0%
100.0%
200.0%
300.0%
400.0%
500.0%
600.0%
700.0%
ECB Fed BoJ BoE
Source: Bloomberg
Since 2009 world’s major central banks have kept rates close to zero
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Main policy rates in Eurosystem (%)
Source: ECB
On June 2014 ECB became the first major central bank to introduce negative rates
-1 %
0 %
1 %
2 %
3 %
4 %
5 %
6 %
Deposit rate MRO Lending rate
→ Stabilize the price level in the monetary union
→ Enhance the monetary transmission mechanism
→ Lower the short term rates in the euro zone interbank market
→ Promote credit to the real economy
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42Main monetary policy decisions since 2014
Sep -2014Jun - 2014
Jan-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016
0.15% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.00%-0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4%
TLTRO (up to 4 years)
Private sector asset purchases (ABS, CBPP3)
Public sector asset purchases (PSPP)
extend PSPP till march 2017
CSPP
expand PSPP
TLTRO II
MRO
Depo
Dec-2016
extend PSPP till end 2017
0.00%-0.4%
Source: ECB
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Source: ECB, BBC
How does the EAPP work?
Euosystem buys securities…
1. 3.
2. 4.
5.
…allowing companies and HHs to borrow more…
… % rates go down… …supporting the spending…
…stimulating the economy and GDP
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Source: ECB
82% of EAPP have been made in the public sector
PSPP to date
€1'762 bn
13%
1%
73%
9%4%
CBPP3ABSPPGovernment secu-ritiesSupranational secu-ritiesCorporate
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Central bank balance sheets - % of GDP*
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160%
1000%
2000%
3000%
4000%
5000%
6000%
7000%
8000%
9000%
10000%
USUKEAJapan
*For BoE – last reported BS values at February 2015, since then BS value assumed to be constantSource: Reuters, Fathom Consulting, BoL calculations
Euorsystem's balance sheet to GDP has reached the size of Fed, still far from Japan
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46
What is the ECB's primary objective?
a) Price stability in medium term
b) Sustainable growth in the long term
c) Enlarging the euro area
d) Low interest rates
Question
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6. The impact of monetary policy decisions
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Source: ECB, Bloomberg
Money market rates at historic lows, in negative territory
Eurosystem’s excess liquidity and money market interest rates (€ bn, % p.a.)
-1,400 bn
-1,200 bn
-1,000 bn
-800 bn
-600 bn
-400 bn
-200 bn
0 bn
200 bn
400 bn
600 bn
800 bn
1,000 bn
1,200 bn
1,400 bn
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Excess liquidity (lhs)EoniaEuribor 3mEuribor 6m
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10y government bond yields (%)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-500%
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
3500%
4000%
Italy
Portugal
Greece
France
Germany
USA
Spain
ECB lowers interest rates and announce non-standart stimulus
Source: Bloomberg, ECB
APP has provided huge financing relief for governments
ECB announce and start APP
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Euro area AAA yield curve over time (% p.a.)
3M 6M 9M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
min 3 years ago March-2017
Source: BloombergThe EA Yield curve based on Fitch AAA- rated government bonds (currently: Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands)
EA yield curve close to historic lows
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EUR/USD and NEER38(NEER 99Q1=100)
Source: Bloomberg
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
NEER (38)
EUR USD
Jan-13Apr-1
3Jul-1
3Oct-
13Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15Apr-1
5Jul-1
5Oct-
15Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-1795
100
105
110
115
120
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
NEER (38)
EUR USD
ECB lowers interest rates and announce non-standart stimulus ECB announce
and start APP
Divergence in monetary policy stance is having an impact on exchange rates
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USA, European and World stock market indices (Index: 01.01.2008=100)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201740
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USA S&P 500 MSCI World Eurostoxx 50
Source: Bloomberg, BoL calculations
Post-APP stock indices rallied, recently – more global uncertainty – markets are volatile
ECB lowers interest rates and announce non-standart stimulus
ECB announce and start APP
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Nominal MFI bank lending rates to NFCs in selected euro area countries, new business (% p.a.)
Source: ECB
NFC lending rates at historic lows
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800% DEEEESFRITLTLVNLPTEA
EA lending rate
1.6%
ECB lowers interest rates and announce non-standart stimulus
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54
Nominal MFI bank lending rates to HHs for house purchase in selected euro area countries, new business (% p.a.)
Source: ECB
HHs lending rates at historic low
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800% DEEEESFRITLTPTEA
EA lending rate
1.8%
ECB lowers interest rates and announce non-standart stimulus
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MFI lending to NFCs and HHs (annual growth rate, %, s.a., adjusted for sales and securitisation)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
HHs NFCs
Source: ECB
Lending to the private sector has recovered since the introduction of non-standard measures
ECB lowers interest rates and announce non-standart stimulus
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Which of the following is true?a) Eurosystem monetary policy has had no impact on the real economyb) ECB has intentionally weakened the euro exchange rate to increase the
competitiveness of the economyc) Although due to the monetary policy response some economic variables have
improved, in order to achieve a sustainable growth in longer term responsible fiscal policy and structural reforms are needed
Question
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Thank you for your attention!
Disscussion Questionnaire
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ZINĀTNISKI PĒTNIECISKO DARBU KONKURSS
Konkursa mērķis: veicināt Latvijas tautsaimniecības makroekonomisko problēmu
apzināšanu un analīzi, kā arī stimulēt augstāko mācību iestāžu studentu pētnieciskās
domas attīstību.
Tēmas: piedāvāts plašs makroekonomisko tēmu loks, kas aplūkojamas Latvijas, Baltijas
valstu vai eiro zonas tautsaimniecības kontekstā.
Konkurss notiek pavasarī, darbi iesniedzami 2017. gada 15.-29. maijā
Vairāk informācijas un ieskats tēmās:
https://www.makroekonomika.lv/konkursi/zinatniski-petniecisko-darbu-konkurss
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59
Aktuālie dati, to analīze
Ekonomistu viedoklis
Pētījumi
Arī izcilāko studentu zinātniskie darbi un šī lekcija
Viss par aktuālo Latvijas tautsaimniecībā un eirozonā vienuviet:
www.makroekonomika.lv