lecture ricardo v. lago (feb 16 ,2009 ) : bail-out and stimulus : will they work ?
DESCRIPTION
The problems confronting the US and internatiomal economies and the possible outcomes in the coming months . A central question for individuals and families : where do I invest my money ?TRANSCRIPT
PROF JULIE ZENG’s GRADUATE SEMINAR INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS
16TH February ,2009 Florida InternaHonal University
Ricardo Lago Economist and Consultant
Former Senior of the EBRD, The World Bank , IADB Former Director of Economic Policy of the Treasury of
Mexico
1
THREE GENERAL REFLECTIONS
• THE TALE THAT SUB‐PRIME MORTGAGES WERE THE CAUSE OF THE CRISIS IS SIMPLISTIC AND FLAWED . SUB‐PRIME WAS THE FIRST MANIFESTATION OF A BROADER AND DEEPER PROBLEM
• IN THE 1990s and 2000s LIKE IN THE 1920s : WE HAD ENTERED AN ERA OF
– InnovaHon and fast producHvity growth – Great expectaHons : prosperity was here to stay! – Easy money and excessive consumer spending in US and Europe
– High leverage raHos – Regulators : too many , too uncoordinated , looking at the wrong
thing in the wrong places, and red‐taping everyone with costs
• FREE MARKETS WORK .THE PROBLEM IS THAT USA AND EUROPE ARE DEPARTING FROM THE RULES AND ETHICS OF FREE MARKETS
9
Look at Peru with free markets 18 years : the point of departure was complete chaos in 1990
(Average anual GDP growth 2002- 2008)
TWO ERAS OF UNPRECEDENTED PROSPERITY
• IN THE 1920s – InnovaHons : radio , electrificaHon , and telephone – Market expansion : the resumpHon of mulHlateral trade a^er World War I
• IN THE 1990s and 2000s – InnovaHons : PCs , Cellphones , and Internet – Market expansion : incorporaHon of China , India and Eastern Europe to world trade
NOW I TURN TO THE FOUR CENTRAL QUESTIONS :
• QUESTION 1 : Monetary and fiscal policies in US and EU, Will they work ?
• QUESTION 2: When will the banking system be operaHng smoothly
• QUESTION 3 :How long will the recession last? • QUESTON 4 How do you foresee the evoluHon of the stock market, the dollar, and stock markets overseas?
ANSWER
• During 2008 the Bureau of Engraving and Prin0ng delivered 7.7 billion notes
• At an average cost of 6.4 cents per note.
INJECTING LIQUIDITY
• Then , where is the liquidity problem if US$100 notes can be produced at 6.4 cents each
• The Federal Reserve can produce dollars at a profit of US$99.93 each and inject as many as needed
• Is this the right thing to do ? • Is it all that easy ? • The short answer is clearly : NO
Vernon Smith , Nobel Laureate to WSJ
“Why is this crash a classic? In every market, there is ul0mately only one source of
liquidity: buyers. And this is what central bankers hope to see return when they speak euphemis0cally of restoring
confidence.All other sources of liquidity are stop gaps,bridges,
band aids, and now a duct‐tape bailout. Every seller in dire need of a buyer is in a liquidity crisis”
MACROECONOMICS 101 – MONEY SUPPLY • MONETARY BASE (MB)
– The Fed lends to banks , to the government ( by buying TBs or long bonds) , to others , or buys foreign currencies
– How ? : by wriHng checks on itseld , i.e. by prinHng money • MONEY SUPPLY MULTIPLIER (k)
– That money ends in people’s pockets , part they keep it in the pocket and part they deposit in the banks
– Banks invest the deposits either in loans to business or to people or else leave it idle as Reserves (in TBs or at the Fed)
• MONEY SUPPLY (M)
M =MB x K
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW WITH MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH ?
• Monetary Base (MB) is growing at a huge 144% p.a. • Monetary Supply (M2) is growing at 7.6% p.a • Hence , the MulHplier (k) has declined by 56% p.a
• CONCLUSION : – Fed is prinHng to much money – Individuals are keeping much of it in cash – Banks are accumulaHng reserves rather than lending
MACROECONOMICS101THEQUANTITYEQUATIONOFMONEY MONEYSUPPLYxVELOCITY=PRICELEVELxGDP(real)
(NominalAggregateDemand=NominalAggregateSupply)
MxV=PxGDP(real)
Aswesaw“M”isgrowingat7.6%, but“V”isdroppingat11%to14% Inflationmayalreadybeclosetozeroorevennegative Ifinflationwereatzero,thenrealGDPmaybefallingby4%to7%
MACROECONOMICS 101 FISCAL POLICY
• THE PEOPLE DO NOT CONSUME MUCH , AND BUSINESS DO NOT INVEST ENOUGH
• WHY NOT HAVE THE GOVERNMENT SPEND MORE TO MAKE UP FOR IT !
• PRESIDENT OBAMA’S 800 ‐Billion DOLLAR STIMULUS PLAN AND OTHERS
• WILL IT WORK ?
FISCAL STIMULUS INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION
• IDEAL SCENARIO ( US$ 3 TRILLION OR 6% of World GDP) – THE CREDITOR COUNTRIES ( CHINA ,GULF COUNTRIES , ETC ) SHOULD HAVE TAKEN MUCH MORE OF THE STIMULUS BURDEN
– IT IS A PROBLEM THE DEBTOR NATIONS , UK , US, , EUROPEAN UNION AND OTHERS ARE PILING UP MORE DEBT
Everet Dirksen’s famous quote Republican Senator from Illinois 1932‐69
"A billion here, a billion there, preIy soon, you're talking real money"
DOES IT MEAN THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STIMULUS IN THE USA SO FAR ?
• BUT SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN ALREADY A MYRIAD OF VERY EXPENSIVE PUBLIC INTERVENTIONS . RESCUE AND /OR STIMULUS HOWEVER WE WANT TO CALL THEM
• BAIL OUTS : TARP , BEAR STERNS , AIG , FANNIE , FREDDY , AUTO INDUSTRY , SEVERAL FED SCHEMES ETC ETC
• FURTHER , IN 2008 THERE WAS A TAX REDUCTION STIMULUS PACKAGE FO US$150 billion .
THE DOWNSIDE OF MORE BUDGET DEFICITS IS THE LONG RUN SOLVENCY PROBLEM
• THE PEOPLE WANT TO SAVE TO IMPROVE THEIR BALANCE SHEETS , THE GOVERNMENT IS DIS‐SAVING (HUGE DEFICITS ) TO COMPENSATE FOR IT
• WHAT MAY BE GOOD FOR THE SHORT RUN IS DEFINITELY BAD FOR THE LONG RUN
• HIGH AND INCREASING DEBT AND LOW SAVINGS ARE A PROBLEM
• WHERE IS THE BALANCE BETWEEN THE SHORT RUN NEEDS AND THE LONG RUN CONSTRAINTS ?
THE PUBLIC DEBT BUILD UP IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM
• THE UNDERFUNDING OF SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE
• PLUS THE GROWING INTEREST PAYMENTS ON THE PUBLIC DEBT
• LOOK AT THE PROJECTION PATH FORECASTED BY THE GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE (a department of the Federal Government )
• AND THAT PROJECTION WAS IN 2007 ,BEFORE THE MELTDOWN
THE WAY OUT OF THE RECESSION
• SO WHERE ARE WE HEADING FOR IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 YEARS
• TWO POSSIBILITIES : – One very bad : DeflaHon and stagnaHon – The other less bad : high inflaHon and weak recovery
THE WAY OUT OF THE RECESSION : THE RAZOR BLADE PATH PROBLEM
• DEFLATION MOOD , NO GROWTH SCENARIO : JAPAN ( 1991 to PRESENT )
– GDP STAGNATION – PERPETUATION OF INSOLVENT BANKS – TOO MUCH FISCAL ACTIVISME AND EXPLODING PUBLIC DEBT
• HIGH INFLATION , RACHITIC GROWTH SCENARIO
– REWINDING OF THE BALANCE SHEET OF THE FED– ONCE MONEY MULTIPLIER AND VELOCITY PICK UP – AND BALANCING THE BUDGET MAY BE DIFFICULT TO STAGE
– RISK OF FALLING INTO HIGH INFLATION OR EVEN HYPERINFLATION
– VERY WEAK GDP RECOVERY
• I THINK THE LATTER IS MORE LIKELY
• WHEN INSOLVENT BANKS ARE WOUND UP OR PROPERLY CAPITALIZED
• WHEN BANKING INTERMEDIATION SHRINKS TO THE REAL VALUE OF THE ASSETS : MAL‐INVESTMENTS ARE WRITTEN OFF
• WHEN LEVERAGE RATIOS ARE BROUGHT DOWN TO REASONABLE LEVELS
• AS STOCK MARKETS SEE THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL
DURATION OF THREE LONGEST RECESSIONS SINCE 1929
• GREAT DEPRESSION (1929‐33) : 43 months
• OIL –GOLD RECESSION (1973‐75) : 16 months
• VOLKER RECESSION (1981‐83 ) : 16 months
THE SMOOT‐HOWLEY ACT OF 1930
Willis Hawley, a congressman from Oregon,
and Reed Smoot, a senator from Utah
HOW LONG WILLTHE CURRENT
RECESSION LAST? • ASSUMING IMPROVED GLOBAL CO‐ORDINATION AND
COOPERATION ON : • No protecHonism (Buy America?? , Buy Brazil ?? –Remember Smos –
Howley !! ) • Beser coordinaHon on fiscal –monetary policy
• MY FORECAST IS THAT CURRENT RECESSION WOULD LAST ABOUT 30 MONTHS
• THAT IS THE AVERAGE BETWEEN THE 43 OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION AND THE 16 OF THE TWO OTHER LONGEST
• In March (2009 ) we will be in the 16th month ‐How much longer ? : 12 to 16 months longer ‐We are half the way down ‐ We will be out by the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2010
QUESTION 4 How do you foresee the evoluHon of the stock market, the dollar, and stock markets overseas?
Ranking of currencies with beser to worse perspecHves
• Gold • Some emerging countries currencies : Yuan, Real , Chilean Peso ,Sol
• Euro • Dollar • Yen • Sterling Pound
Best Stock markets
• BRICs and some other emerging markets – They will be leading the recovery
• US : Technology Stocks (Nasdaq 100) – They are global companies with lots of cash and no debt – These are growth‐stocks now discounted to price mulHples of value‐stocks
Treasury Bills
• If you have any bonds ( maturiHes 3 years of longer ) of the US , UK , and many European countries , dump them as quickly as you can
• If you are a more sophisHcated investor then sell them short
STOCK MARKETS
• US and other stock markets are massively undervalued by any standard
• The problem is not figuring out the prospects of the stocks themselves ,
• The problem is the value of the dollar and the Euro , and the other currencies agaisnt themselves and of all of them against gold
WHY ARE STOCKS MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED ?
• Because in the last 200 years the value of stocks ( inclusive of reinvestment of dividends ) has scasered year
a^er year around an exponenHal line • This exponenHal line shows an average real return of 6.6%
per year • The deviaHon from that line can be as much as :
+100% in an extreme Bull market ‐50% in a extreme Bear market
• But has not exceeded those boundaries on a year average basis
• Note , though, that the range of deviaHon is huge : if being right on the line the value is 100 , the upper bound can be as high as 200 and the lower bound as low as 50 !
• That is the upper bound is 4 Hmes the lower bound
WHY ARE US STOCKS MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED ?
• Because in the last 200 years their value ( inc. Reinvestment of dividends ) has scasered year a^er year around an exponenHal line
• This exponenHal line shows a real return of 6.6% per year
• The deviaHon from that line can be as much as : +100% in an extreme Bull market ‐50% in an extreme Bear market
WHY ARE US STOCKS MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED ?
• But the average value of any year has not surpassed those levels
• Note , though, that the range of deviaHon is a huge : – if being right on the line the value is 100 – the upper bound can be as high as 200 – and the lower bound as low as 50
• That is the upper bound is 4 Hmes the lower bound !
• IF WE PLOT THE CHART IN LOGARITHMIC PAPER : IT FLATTENS THE VERTICAL AXIS HENCE , CONVERTING :
– 10 into 1 – 100 into 2 – 1000 into 3 – 10000 into 4 – And so on
• AND WITH TH REAL DATA OF 200 YEARS WE GET SOMETHING LIKE THAT…………
SO WHY ARE US AND OTHER STOCKS MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED ?
• Because at the lowest point on November 21st ,2008 , stocks prices were precisely below the line by exactly ‐ 50%
• Today , January 15th , stocks prices are below the line ‐42%
THE TWO REAL THREATS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD
• ON THE INFLATION FRONT THE MONETARY AND FISCAL STIMULUS MAY GET US OUT OF
DEFLATION /DEPRESSION BUT WITH HYPERINFLATION AND RACHITIC GDP RECOVERY
• ON THE REAL GDP FRONT A RETURN TO PROTECTIONISM : STRAIGHT OR IN DISGUISE (Buy Spain , Buy America , Buy Brazil, etc )
• HENCE , NEED FOR GLOBAL CO‐ORDINATION ON FREE TRADE AND ON FISCAL /MONETARY STIMULUS