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Lectu re Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

Managing Editors: M. Beckmann and W. Krelle

326

Christine Sauer

Alternative Theories of Output, Unemployment, and Inflation in Germany: 1960-1985

Springer-Verlag New York Berlin Heidelberg London Paris Tokyo

Editorial Board

H.Albach M.Beckmann (Managing Editor) P.Dhrymes G. Fandel G. Feichtinger J. Green W. Hildenbrand W. Krelle (Managing Editor) H. P. Kunzi K. Ritter R. Sato U. Schittko P. SchOnfeld R. Selten

Managing Editors

Prof. Dr. M. Beckmann Brown University Providence, RI 02912, USA

Prof. Dr. W. Krelle Institut fOr Gesellschafts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universitiit Bonn Adenauerallee 24-42, 0-5300 Bonn, FRG

Author

Christine Sauer Assistant Professor of Economics University of New Mexico Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA

ISBN-13: 978-3-540-50908-0 001: 10.1007/978-3-642-45662-6

e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-45662-6

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in ita version of June 24, 1985, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law.

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1989

Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1 st edition 1989

2847/3140-543210

To GIsela and Hermann Sauer.

PREFACE

by Jerome L. Stein

Disenchantment with Keynesian econollics developed during the post-1968 period when the rate of growth of output declined, the rate of unemployment rose, and the rate of inflation increased in the U.S. and in other countries. This paradox, called stagflation, was inconsistent with the tenet of Keynesian economics that cyclical movemants in prices and output relative to their respective trends are positively correlated. A search occurred for a more satisfactory theory of macroeconomics which could explain the paradox of stagflation and the observed economic phenomena.

The New Classical Economics (NCE) developed as the total rejection of Keynesian economics. The Keynesians claimed that their demand management policies contributed to the obsolescence of the business cycle and successfully eliminated the gap between full employment (potential) output and actusl output. The NCE argued just the opposite: the unemplo~nt rate or growth rate of real output is insensitive to systematic demand management policies [Lucas; Sargent and Wallace].

Crucial to the NeE analysis is the MUTH RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS (MRE) hypothesis, which states that the subjective (or market) anticipation of a variable is equal to the objective expectation based upon the true model. This is a very controversial hypothesis. It implies that forecast errors made by the market are random variables with zero expectations, because the market is alleged to be using all publicly available info~ation efficiently. Its proponents take the MRE hypothesis as a postulate akin to expected utility maximization. Others, such as Alan Blinder, argue that: • ••. the weight of evidence - both from directly observed expectations and from indirect statistical tests of rationality (usually in conjunction with some other hypothesis) - is overwhelmingly against the RE [rational expectations] hypothesis." The MRE hypothesis underlying the NeE has logical beauty, since anticipations are endogenous. This makes it an extremely attractive research strategy. One must show that its beauty and simplicity are grounded in micro-economic theory and also that it is consistent with the evidence.

The disagreements in macroeconomics do not concern the steady state, but rather the dynamics between steady states, where the unemployment rate or growth rate of output deviates from its respective ·equilibrium rate." If there is an excess unemployment (relative to the equilibrium rate), can its convergence to the equilibrium value be accelerated by monetary policy? What will be the resulting effects upon the trajectory of the inflation rate?

The polarization of the profession into the Keynesian, Monetarist, and NeE camps produced a landscape where Milton Friedman seemed like a moderate relative to the NeE. The theories underlying each school of thought used different variables and cOllDUDication between them was most limited. The econometric testing of hypotheses was done without simultaneously comparing the three different points of view in terms of the same set of data. It was no surprise that one group was unimpressed with another group's econometrics. There was no consensus among economists as to which theory could best be used to evaluate policy.

VI

A school of thought is defined in terms of its empirical propositions or unique conclusions, rather than by the techniques of analysis used by particular proponents. One does not have to use the demand for money equation to be a Monetarist; and one does not have to use the-Hicksian IS-1M model with rigid prices to be a Keynesian. Dr. Sauer defines each school of thought precisely within a broad model. The reader can call the model specifications K, M, and NCE if he wishes. What Dr. Sauer calls the Monetarist view is close to Friedman's, but very different from the NCE view. She is concerned with the scientific testing of alternative sets of hypotheses which have different policy implications.

Dr. Christine Sauer's study is a model of objectivity and technical skill. She uaes a general dynamic model which is capable of implying either Keynesian, Monetarist, or New Classical results, depending upon the parameter specifications. On the basis of this model, she analyzes the experience of Germany from 1960-85 to determine which specifications are consistent, and which specifications are inconsistent with the evidence. This broad period includes both a subperiod of fixed exchange rates and another with floating exchange rates.

At about the same time that Dr. Sauer was conducting her research, Dr. Roberto Domenech was doing similar research on the Argentine economy. His conclusions were similar to those that I had obtained for the u.S.: the Monetarist specification was always consistent with the data, whereas the Keynesian and NCE specifications were rejected. The only difference between the U.S. and Argentine results was that the speed of response of inflation to money growth was four times as fast in Argentina as in the U.S. Insofar as the real GNP or growth equation is concerned, I was somewhat surprised that the NCE/MRE hypothesis was rejected by the Argentine data. Apparently, even in that high inflation economy, the MRE hypothesis was not valid.

Dr. Sauer's study of Germany has been guided by scientific objectivity rather than by a prior cOlIDDitment to a particular point of view. Her skilled econometric analysis led Professor Wilhelm Krelle to write: •... the interesting results are acceptable even for those who will be disappointed by them." Her main conclusions are as follows. (1) Concerning the determinants of real GNP, or the unemployment rate, the NCE view is always inconsistent with the evidence from Cermany. The Monetarist specification of the output or unemployment equation, which can also be accepted by Keynesians, is consistent with the evidence. Hence, the same results are obtained for the U.S., Germany, and Argentina. (2) The Keynesian explanation of inflation is more consistent with the data than are the Monetarist and NCE specifications. This is different from the u.s. and Argentine results.

Dr. Sauer's book should be studied and critically evaluated by those interested in macroeconomic theory and policy. There are many unanswered questions, which should generate further research. My main questions are: Why are the results different for Germany and the U.S.? What are the results for other EC economies? How can they be explained? The next stage of the analysis should be a deeper probing into the structural equations to account for the differences in the results. I trust that serious economists will derive as much benefit from reading this book as I have.

Providence, Rhode Island December 1988

AClCNOWLEDGEKENTS

This monograph is a revised and extended version of my Ph.D. dissertation,

submitted to and accepted by Brown University. I aa indebted to my mentors, editors,

colleagues, friends, and faaily who.e comment. and continued support facilitated the

process of revi.ing and expanding the original work.

My advisor, Jerome Stein, inspired the choice of topic with his challenging

contributiona to the debate among macroeconollists. His continued interes t in my

research is gratefully .cknowledged.

The correspondence with Professor Wilhelm Krelle has challenged me to clarify

several theoretic.l and empirical issues. This study has benefited greatly from his

stimul.ting comments, and those of an anonymous referee. Of course, any errors are my

responsibility.

My colle.gue .t UNH, Alok Bohar., scrutinized my writing and made many editorial

suggestiona which I gl.dly followed. My thanks also go to Joachim Scheide at the

Institut fdr W.ltwirtschaft in Kiel who helped me with the compilation of a

substantial data b •••. Hi. own work on the G.rman .conomy has been an inspiration for

my research, and his comments were always useful.

Last, but not lea.t, the Economics D.partment at UNH provided the technical

.upport to prep.r •• publishable manuscript.

Albuquerque, New Mexico December 1988

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I INTRODUCTION

II THE GERMAN ECONOMY: 1960 - 1985

1. Institutional Arrange_nts

2. Twenty-Five Years of Economic Policy Making

3. The Performance of the German Economy: 1960-1985

III SURVEY AND CRITIQUE OF THE LITERATURE: EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF THE GERMAN KACROECONOMY

1. Introduction

2. Impulse-Theoretic Models

3. Monetarist, Keynesian, and Rational Expectations Models

4. Structural Models of Other Open Economies

5. Phillips Curve Studies

6. Causality Studies-

7. A Critical Evaluation of Previous Studies of Germany

IV FIXED VERSUS FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES IN THE OPEN ECONOMY: THEORY AND REALITY

1. Introduction

2. Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Synthesis View

2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4.

The Theoretical Fr.-work The Fixed Exchange Rate Case The Flexible Exchange Rate Case Summary and Critique of the Synthesis View

3. Open Economy Macroeconomics and Reality

3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4.

Theoretical Considerations Methodological Considerations Empirical Realities Open Economy Macroeconomics and Reality: Where Do We Stand?

1

7

7

14

19

30

30

32

37

44

47

51

53

58

58

61

62 64 67 70

72

73 75 77 91

v

x

MONETARIST, KEYNESIAN, AND NEW ClASSICAL THEORIES OF OUTPUT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND INFlATION IN GERMANY: 1960 - 1985

1. Introduction

2. The General Theoretical Framework

2.1. 2.2.

The Structural Equations of the General Model The Relationship of Output and Unemployment

3. Alternative Views of Unemployment, Output, and Inflation

3.1. 3.2. 3.3.

The Monetarist Specification The New Classical Specification The Keynesian Specification

4. Empirical Evidence

4.1. 4.2. 4.3.

4.4. 4.5.

The Unanticipated Money Growth Series Technical Notes The Unemployment Equation: Monetarist versus New Classical

Theories The Output Equation: Monetarist versus New Classical Theories The Inflation Equation: Monetarist versus Keynesian Theories

98

98

101

103 107

112

114 117 119

121

124 137

139 149 159

5. A ·Correct· Model of the German Economy? Conclusions and Outlook 172

TABLE APPENDIX TO CHAPTER V 177

DATA SOURCES 197

BIBLIOGRAPHY 200

LIST OF TABLES IN THE TEXT

2.1 The Business Cycle and the Role of the Government: 1960-1985 22

2.2 Inflation, Money Growth, and Interest Rates: 1960-1985 23

2.3 Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate Data: 1960 - 1985 27

4.1 Bivariate Relationships among Domestic and Foreign Variables in Open Economy Models 79

4.2 Multivariate Relationships among Domestic and Foreign Variables in Open Economy Models 80

4.3 The International Linkeage of Interest Rates 84

4.4 The International Transmission of Inflation 85

4.5 The Causal Role of Money 87

4.6 The Feedback from Domestic Variables to Monetary Aggregates 89

4.7 Bivariate Relationships among Domestic and Foreign Monetary Aggregates 90

4.8a Summary of the Major Findings from Bivariate Causality Tests: Open Economy Considerations 93

4.8b Summary of the Major Findings from Bivariate Causality Tests: Domestic rolicy Variables 94

5.la Univariate Money Growth Equations: Seasonally Unadjusted (NSA) Data 127

5.1b Sample Autocorrelation Coefficients for Unanticipated Univariate Money Growth Series (Based on NSA Data) 128

5.2 Univariate M~ney Growth Equations: Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 129

5.3 Multivariate Money Growth Equations: F-Statistics for Significant Predictive Content 131

5.4a Multivariate NSA Money Growth Equation: Monetary Base (MB) 133

5.4b Multivariate NSA Money Growth Equation: Money Supply (M1) 134

5.5a Multivariate SA Money Growth Equation: Monetary Base (MB) 135

5.5b Multivariate SA Money Growth Equation: Money Supply (M1) 136

5.6 Nested Annual Unemployment Equations: Results for Different Models of Unanticipated Money Growth 140

5.7a Nested Quarterly Unemployment Equations: Monetary Base (MS) - Summary of Results for Different Models of Unanticipated Money Growth

5.7b Nested Quarterly Unemployment Equations: Money Supply (Ml) - Summary of Results for Different Models of Unanticipated Money Growth

5.8a Nested Quarterly Unemployment Equation: Monetary Base (MS) - Complete Results for the Multivariate NSA Model of Unanticipated Money Growth

5.8b Nested Quarterly Unemployment Equation: Money Supply (Ml)- Complete Results for the Multivariate NSA Model of Unanticipated Money Growth

5.9a Preferred Quarterly Unemployment Equation: Monetary Base (MS)

5.9b Preferred Quarterly Unemployment Equation: Money Supply (Ml)

5.10 Preferred Annual Unemployment Equations

5.11 Nested Annual Output Equations: Results for Different Models of Unanticipated Money Growth

5.l2a Nested Quarterly Output Equations: Monetary Base (MS) - Summary Results for Different Models of Unanticipated Money Growth

5.l2b Nested Quarterly Output Equations: Money Supply (Ml) - Summary Results for Different Models of Unanticipated Money Growth

5.l3a Nested Quarterly Output Equation: Monetary Base (MS) - Complete for the Multivariate NSA Model of Unanticipated Money Growth

of

of

Results

5.13b Nested Quarterly Output Equation: Money Supply (Ml) - Complete Results

142

143

145

146

147

148

149

151

152

153

155

for the Multivariate NSA Model of Unanticipated Money Growth 156

5.14a Preferred Quarterly Output Equation: Monetary Base (MS) 157

s.14b Preferred Quarterly Output Equation: Money Supply (Ml) 158

5.15 Preferred Annual Output Equations 159

5.16 Quarterly Nested Inflation Equations: Summary of Results for the Original Version (R3) 163

5.17 Quarterly Nested Inflation Equations: The "Underlying Rate of Inflation" Version (R4) - Summary of Results 165

5.18 Annual Nested Inflation Equations: The Original and "Underlying Rate of Inflation" Versions - Complete Results 166

5.19 Quarterly Nested Inflation Equations: The Role of Foreign Inflation -Summary of Results 168

5.20 Annual Nested Inflation Equations: The Role of Foreign Inflation -Complete Results

5.21 Annual NCE Inflation Equations: Results for Different Models of Anticipated Money Growth

169

171

LIST OF FIGURES

2.1 Total Government Revenue & Outlays, Total Government Budget Deficit

2.2 Employment Fluctuations: Total versus Foreign Wage Employment

2.3 The Cyclical Behavior of Total Government Outlays and Spending

2.4 Characteristics of the German Business Cycle

2.5 Indicators for Economic Policy Decisions, Labor Market Developments, Inflation

2.6 Money Growth & Inflation, The Tradeoff between Unemployment & Inflation

2.7 Foreign Trade, Foreign Impulses, German & U.S. Inflation

4.1 The Transmission of Foreign Inflation under Fixed Exchange Rates

4.2a The Insulation Property of Flexible Exchange Rates

4.2b The Effects of a Monetary Expansion under Flexible Exchange Rates

10

13

17

20

24

25

28

65

68

70