lecture 4-what are the barriers to action · university of california, berkeley april 18 , 2016...

4/18/16

1

Daniel Kammen

Classof1935Distinguished Professor ofEnergyEnergyandResources Group |Goldman School of

Public PolicyDirector, Renewable andAppropriate Energy

LaboratoryUniversity ofCalifornia, Berkeley

April 18,2016

Lecture 4:What are the Barriers to Action?

1.Theclimatecrisis reinvented (3.28.2016)Klein, chapters1&2|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter1

2.Ourmistrustofthefuturemakesithardtogiveupthepast (4.4.16)Klein, chapters3|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter5

3.Wedon’ttenureMotherTeresa (4.11.2016)Klein, chapter9|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter2

4.Whatarethebarriers toaction? [Toys] (4.18.2016)Klein, chapter6- 8|

5.Aneweconomicsoftheplanet [Money] (4.25.2016)Klein, chapter4|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter3;Klein12

6.Pasteur’sQuadrant [Ideas] (5.2.2016)Klein, chapter7,11|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter4

Twitter:@dan_kammen

Website:http://rael.berkeley.edu

Resources: WHOHASTHE“CHEAP”(TOPRODUCE)EASY(TOEXTRACT)READILYACCESSIBLEOIL…

U.S.28.4Bbbl(2%) CHINA

14.8Bbbl(1%)

…NOTTHEU.S.ORCHINA

WORLDCONVENTIONALOILRESERVESMAP(Billionbarrelsofoil)

DRAWNSOTHATAREACORRESPONDSTORESERVES

WorldTotal1330Bbbl(≈40yrs@today’srate)

More than half in the

least stable part of the

world

SaudiArabia265

Iraq115

Kuwait102

Iran138

UAE98

2009 BP s tatis tics 4

AWIDER VIREWONKEY ENERGY ISSUES: HOWCANWE..

REDUCE DEPENDENCE ONOIL and theassociated problems ofeconomic vulnerability, national security risks, andultimateresource depletion.

5

JamesWoolsey,formerDirectorCIA:“ForSecurity,GetOffOil”…whenaWahabimadrassaisteachinglittleboysthevirtuesofbecomingasuicidebomber,youandI arepayingforthatthroughourgasolinepurchases”

SLOWGLOBALWARMING and increase the probability thatcatastrophic climate changecanbeavoided.

We(US)useabout150billion gallonsofgasoline/yr1¢/galtax=$1.5billion/yr in revenue$1/gal=$150billion/yr≈AnnualcostofIraq/Afghanistanwars

6

4/18/16

2

CrystallinesiliconPVmodulelearningcurve,1979–2013

SolarPVcostreductionshavefollowedapredictablepath

Basedon dat af r om EPI Aandt heEU PVplat f orm ,2011; Liebr eich, 2011; pvXchange, 2012and I RENAanalys is

“Mybet is thatwerun outofmoneybefore werunout of

physics,”- Daniel Reed

Prof.ofComputer ScienceandVCforResearch, University of Iowa in

Iowa

$0.01

$0.10

$1.00

$10.00

$100.00

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Cumulative Capacity Installed (MW)

Capi

tal C

ost (

2004

$/W

att)

PV1975-03

Wind1981-01

Sol. ThermalElec. 1985-91

NOx controls1974-03

Ethanol 1978-96

Nuclear1970-96

86025EnergySystemsAnalysis ArnulfGrubler

LearningRatesof108Technologies

45 20 10 -10

Freq

uenc

y (%

)

Learning rate40 35 30 25 15 5 0 -5

15

10

5

0

Positive learning

Negativelearning

Sourc e: Argote&Epple, 1990

Negative learning:Lockheed TristarFrench nuclear reactors

Rivers as political systems….

• Management of rivers is political; management of international rivers is very political…

• Rivals… dwellers on opposite banks of a river• The Chinese characters on ‘hydropolitics’:

river

+

+ dyke

=

Political order

=

They werequietly removed bythe Reagan administration during aroof resurfacing in1986

In1986 the Reagan administration quietly dismantled the WhiteHouse solarpanelinstallation while resurfacing theroof. "Hey!That systemis working.

Whydon't youkeep it?"recalls mechanical engineer Fred Morse, nowof Abengoa Solar,who helped install the original solar panels as director of the solar energy programduring theCarter years and then watched as they were dismantled during his tenure inthe samejob under Reagan.

"Hey!This whole [renewable] R&Dprogram is working, whydon't you keep it.”

4/18/16

3

ELECTRICITY is cheaper than gasoline… even using photovoltaics

€

Conventional 25 mpg : $3/gal

25miles/gal= 12¢/mile

€

Electric 3.5 miles/kWh : 12¢ / kWh3.5 miles/kWh

= 3.4 ¢/mile€

Hybrid 45 mpg : $3/gal

45miles/gal= 6.7¢/mile

$ 4 /Wdc,stc (after 3 0%taxcred i t), 5 .5 h r/d ay,0 .7 5 d e-ratin g,5% lo an ,3 4%MTB

$3.50 / gal25 miles/gal

= 14¢ / mile

$3.50 / gal45 miles/gal

= 7.8¢ / mile

off peak it is ≈ 6¢

Photovoltaics: $0.13 / kWh

3.5 miles/kWh= 3.7 ¢ / mile

Run your home and car on solar power

2013 2020 2030

Bindingcommitmentstorenewables

20%33%

50%

16

Seasonality and Storage

WECC

EastAfr ica

China

India

Chile

SWITCH Modeling Efforts

Modelingthe2° Scenarios

Kosovo

Mexico &Nicaragua

East Malaysia

https://rael.berkeley.edu/project/switch-a-modeling-tool-for-the-electricity-sector/

4/18/16

4

The Empire Strikes Back: Challenges to Decarbonization and the Clean Power Plan

SWITCHWECCmodel

• Capacity expansion deterministic linear program

• Minimizes totalpower system cost:• Generation investment andoperation• Transmission investment andoperation

• Geographic:– Western NorthAmerican Power

System (theWECC)– 50loadareas

• Temporal:– 4investment periods: 2016-2025(“2020”);2026-2035(“2030”);2036-2045(“2040”);2046-2055(“2050”);

– 144distincthourssimulated perperiod• Dispatch simulated simultaneously withinvestment decisions

http://rael.berkeley.edu/[email protected]

TheSWITCH-WECC Model

! Optimization and data framework of the western North American SWITCH model.

http://rael.berkeley.e du/swi tch

Linear Program AroundLeastCost

!

24

Electricity Mix, 2020, WECC

0"

200"

400"

600"

800"

1000"

1200"

Reference"

SunShot"

Low5Cost"Ba:eries"

SunShot"and"Low5Cost"Ba:eries"

High5Price"Natural"Gas"

Methane"Leakage"

Nuclear"and"CCS"

Limited"Efficiency"

High5Cost"Transmission"

Limited"Hydro"

Load5ShiJing"

Load5ShiJing"and"Flexible"EV"Charging"

No"CSP"6h"Storage"

Solar"PV"100"GW"Lim

it"

2020#System#Electric

ity#Produ

c3on

#(TWh)#

Nuclear" Biopower" Coal" Coal"CCS" Hydro" Gas" Gas"CCS" Geothermal" Solar"PV" CSP"6h"Storage" Wind"

• Coal,hydropower,andgasgenerationdominatethesystem

4/18/16

5

25


0"

200"

400"

600"

800"

1000"

1200"

1400"

Reference"

SunShot"

Low5Cost"Ba:eries"



Methane"Leakage"

Nuclear"and"CCS"

Limited"Efficiency"


Limited"Hydro"

Load5ShiJing"


No"CSP"6h"Storage"

Solar"PV"100"GW"Lim

it"

2030$System$Electric

ity$Produ

c4on

$(TWh)$


• Electricityproductionheavilydominatedbynaturalgas

26


0"

200"

400"

600"

800"

1000"

1200"

1400"

1600"

1800"

2000"

2200"

Reference"

SunShot"

Low5Cost"Ba:eries"



Methane"Leakage"

Nuclear"and"CCS"

Limited"Efficiency"


Limited"Hydro"

Load5ShiJing"


No"CSP"6h"Storage"

Solar"PV"100"GW"Lim

it"

2050$System$Electric

ity$Produ

c4on

$(TWh)$


• Electricityproductionmixismuchmoredynamicby2050• Powercostsinmostscenariosatorbelowforecastforthecurrentmixwithinflation

• Storagealmostexclusivelymoves solartothenight• Geothermal only remainingsubstantial baseload

Dispatchin2050:Flexibility andvariable renewables dominate

!50$

0$

50$

100$

150$

200$

250$

300$

19$ 3$ 11$18$ 2$ 10$19$ 3$ 11$18$ 2$ 10$19$ 3$ 11$18$ 2$ 10$17$ 1$ 9$ 18$ 2$ 10$17$ 1$ 9$ 18$ 2$ 10$18$ 2$ 10$17$ 1$ 9$ 18$ 2$ 10$17$ 1$ 9$ 18$ 2$ 10$17$ 1$ 9$ 17$ 1$ 9$ 18$ 2$ 10$18$ 2$ 10$17$ 1$ 9$ 19$ 3$ 11$18$ 2$ 10$18$ 2$ 10$19$ 3$ 11$WEC

C$Ele

ctric

ity$Disp

atch$in$20

50$(G

W)$

Hour$of$Day$(PST)$

Nuclear$ Geothermal$ Biopower$ Coal$Coal$CCS$ Gas$(baseload)$ Gas$CCS$ Gas$(intermediate)$Gas$(peaker)$ Storage$(discharging)$ Hydro$(non!pumped)$ Solar$Wind$ Storage$(charging)$ Demand$

$Jan$$$$$Feb$$$$$$Mar$$$$Apr$$$$$May$$$$$Jun$$$$$$Jul$$$$$$Aug$$$$$Sep$$$$$Oct$$$$$$Nov$$$$Dec$

27

Cats74.16%

Wind Turbines0.01%

Buildings18.51%

Communication Towers0.20%

Vehicles6.18%

Power Lines0.95%

AnnualU.S.AvianMortalityCausedby

Humans:3Billion Birds

28Source: The State of Bi rds Report, 2014http ://www.s tateofthebi rds .org/

Reducing Impacts:VascoWind EnergyCenterRepowering

432smallturbinesremovedandreplaced with34newturbines

RESULT: Energy production tripled& avian mortality cut by 70%

VascoWind Energy Center, 78MWContra Costa County

29

“Defaultrisksare32%lowerinenergyefficienthomes”

- HomeEnergy Efficiency andMortgageRisksResearch Report (March2013, Institute forMarketTransformation)

30

4/18/16

6

31

Footprint comparison

32

Small Modular Reactors: A New Hope?

lecture 4-what are the barriers to action · university of california, berkeley april 18 , 2016...

Documents